Jon Niese

Don’t Rely upon Montero

There’s always that player. Despite all evidence to the contrary, you’re convinced they’re going to be good. You can explain away anything that happens. 

That’s how I always felt about Aaron Heilman. I thought the Mets never gave him a fair chance to start. They messed around with his arm angles and bounced him between starting and relieving. Sure, I ignored his career 5.93 ERA as a starter (small sample size) and focused upon his good work out of the bullpen in 2006 (regular season).  While I believed in Heilman, it just never happened for him. I thought about this when I saw this:

Seriously?  When will the Mets irrational over confidence in Rafael Montero end?  They may trade Jon Niese because Montero has the potential to be the fifth starter.  This is the same team that thought Montero should start in 2014 while eventual Rookie of the Year Jacob deGrom should be in the bullpen. 

Montero wasn’t good in his initial call-up. He was 0-2 with a 5.40 ERA and a 1.600 WHIP in four starts. He was sent down and injured his oblique. He did come back up and pitched fairly well as a starter. Last year, Montero started in the bullpen. The Mets then sought to move him into the rotation to create a six man rotation to keep everyone fresh. Montero only lasted one start.

He went on the DL with right rotator cuff inflammation.  He was transferred from the 15 day to the 60 day DL to make room for Michael Conforto. His rehab was rumored to be progressing slowly. He then had a set-back. His year was effectively over. 

It’s not fair to call Montero a bust. It’s still too early in his career for that. It’s also too early to consider him injury prone even if he’s lost big chunks of time over the past two years. With that said, there is no way the Mets should have Montero as a definitive part of their 2015 plans. 

It’s widely assumed the fifth starter spot is eventually going to Zack Wheeler. It’s also assumed Niese will hold the spot for at least the first half of the season. After that, he could become trade bait, continue his excellent work in the bullpen, or both. Niese could also be insurance against a starting pitcher getting injured or create a six man rotation to get the other starters some rest. 

Montero could do the same, but why would you rely upon him doing that?  He hasn’t proven that he can be relied upon. You can trade Niese for a good return. However, you don’t do that because you think Montero could fulfill his spot. He’s been too unreliable to justify that thought process. This front office has a blind spot for him that could’ve meant deGrom in the bullpen. The Mets should learn from this. 

Instead, why don’t the Mets go and see how Aaron Heilman’s arm is?  

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Who’s the Fourth Member of the Big 4?

When discussing the 2016 Mets, I see many people referring to their Big 4. Now, I knew there was a Big 3, who were referred to as stud muffins by Tom Seaver. My question is who is the fourth member of this proverbial Big 4. 

Let’s start with the obvious. It’s not Jon Niese. He’s the definition of an average pitcher. Also, even if he’s the fourth best pitcher, I’m assuming it’s not Jeurys Familia. I doubt a closer would be thrown in with a Big 4 starting pitching group.

No, the fourth member would be either Steven Matz or Zack Wheeler. I like both Matz and Wheeler, but they haven’t earned this distinction yet. 

In his career, Wheeler is 18-16 with a 3.50 ERA, 1.339 WHIP, and an 8.5 K/9. His ERA+ is 100, which means he’s just an average pitcher. That should be no surprise given his other statistics. While this is nothing to sneeze at, it does not merit putting him in the same conversation as Harvey, Thor, and deGrom. This is before taking his return from Tommy John into account. Wheeler is a tremendous talent, but he’s not a part of a Big 4 yet.

The more obvious choice for the Big 4 is Matz because he was in the postseason rotation. The only thing I can say about Matz right now is we had no idea what he is. He was incredible in his first two starts before being shut down with a lat injury. He was average when he came back only to hurt his back sleeping on the sofa. When he returned he was only good through five innings in the postseason. 

This isn’t a knock on him. He sat for long stretches which would challenge anyone’s effectiveness. The overall point is we don’t know what he is yet. He could very well reach the level of the stud muffins. He could also be nothing more than an average pitcher. 

Long story, short, there’s no Big 4. There could be one. There could be a Big 5. There’s a number of possibilities. However, right now it’s just a Big 3. 

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Niese Will Be Important

By any measure, Jon Niese was a disappointment in 2015. Maybe it was having a new child. Those sleepless nights wreck havoc in everything you do. It may explain Niese being more ornery than usual. In any event, Niese should be back as the team’s fifth starter to at least start the year. 

For his career, Niese is 61-61 with a 3.91 ERA, 3.84 FIP, 1.361 WHIP, and a 7.0 K/9. Righties have hit .274/.332/.444. Lefties have hit .266/.328/.400. Anyway you slice or dice it, he’s a fifth starter. That’s fine. They will need a fifth starter until June or July when Zack Wheeler should be ready to come back. 

That’s when Niese can move to the bullpen, which is a role he really excelled in during the postseason. He only got touched up in Game 2 of the World Series. He shouldn’t have pitched that night. Terry Collins unnecessarily used him for a second inning after pitching two innings the previous night. Even with that game, Niese had a 1.125 WHIP and a 10.1 K/9. 

It’s a small sample size for sure, but he’s proven he can excel in the bullpen. Depending on the state of the Mets bullpen, he can become a LOOGY, 7th or 8th inning guy, or the long man. The possibilities are endless. It’s an incredible weapon to have in the bullpen in August and September when playoff spots are on the line. 

Last year, Niese gave a glimpse into what he could be in 2016. He showed he will do what the team needs to win. I expect he will be even better in that role in 2016.

He will be an important player next year. 

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Nothing but Pain and Tears. 

The Mets lost the World Series 4-1. The Mets easily could’ve won the series in the reverse. The difference?  The Royals executed in late innings. Terry Collins was terrible. The Royals got a little luck. It wasn’t supposed to go this way. Not this series. Not tonight. 

This was the moment Matt Harvey we all imagined when he first came up and pitched against the Diamondbacks. This is the moment we anticipated when Harvey started the All Star Game at Citi Field. We were left dreaming of it when he missed all of 2014 while he was rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. 

My God was he awesome. Awesome may be overused, but I can’t think of a better word. I’m not sure a word exists to describe how incredible Harvey was. He went 8+, five hits, two earned, two walks, nine strikeouts. 

For all the narrative thrown his way during the innings limit drama, he promised he would be here when the time called for it. Terry Collins tried to take him out of the game before the ninth. Harvey heard the news from Dan Warthen, and he went over to Collins and told him he’s not coming out of the game. He then threw in a lipper and charged out to the mound. You don’t get more old school than that. 

Unfortunately, it was the wrong decision. Harvey allowed a leadoff single to Lorenzo Cain followed by a stolen base and a Eric Hosmer double. Familia got a groundout sending Hosmer to third. Then the Mets late inning defense showed its ugly face again.  Salvador Perez hit a groundball to David Wright. Wright looked back at Hosmer, but it wasn’t enough. Hosmer took off with Wright’s throw, and he scored on a poor Lucas Duda throw. Blown save. Tie game. 

It certainly highlighted the fact that Terry Collins left Harvey in a better too long. It highlighted the poor offense with four double plays off of the grieving Edison Volquez. The only offense the Mets could muster was a Curtis Granderson leadoff homerun and a Duda sacrifice fly. The latter being the only run scored when the Mets had the bases loaded and no out. The first out of that inning came on a Yoenis Cespedes popout after he fouled a ball off his knee. He would have to leave the game after the AB. 

For the second straight game Familia got hit with the blown save that wasn’t his doing. He got the groundball. He did buckle down, got out of the ninth, and shut down the Royals in the tenth. Jon Niese kept it tied. Addison Reed didn’t. 

Perez leadoff with a single that dropped right on the right field line. Jarrod Dyson pinch tab and stole second. Travis d’Arnaud had no shot. With the way he’s throwing right now, he couldn’t throw out Sid Bream. Dyson would score on a Christian Colon single. Naturally, it was Colon’s first at bat in the playoffs. 

Of course Daniel Murphy made another error. Of course Hansel Robles went unused again.of course Collins would wait for it to be 4-2 before lifting Reed. Of course Bartolo Colon would allow a bases clearing double to Lorenzo Cain. The game was out out of reach at 7-2. 

Wade Davis came in, and the Mets went quietly into that good night. Duda struck out. d’Arnaud struck out. Michael Conforto singled leaving Wilmer Flores to make the last out. He struck out.  Fittingly, it was his final at bat that left us all in tears. 

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Collins May Be Costing the Mets a World Series

Yes, games are decided by the players on the field. However, the players that are on the field depends on the manager. I’ve already bemoaned Collins Game 1 performance. He’s also damaged the Mets chances of winning the World Series in every game since. 

Game 2 

Going into the fifth inning, the Mets had a 1-0 lead. Jacob deGrom pitched well for the first four innings, but he was losing it fast. To his credit, Terry Collins got Jon Niese up in the bullpen. Niese wouldn’t get in during that inning. The 1-0 lead would become a 4-1 deficit. 

The game would still be in reach, at least on paper. Instead, Collins decided to get Niese back up again after pitching two innings the prior day. He then tried to push Niese go two innings two days in a row. The end result was the Royals putting the game out of reach in a 7-1 loss. 

Game 3

No, Collins didn’t harm the Mets chances to win in a 9-3 win. However, he harmed the Mets chances of winning the World Series here. He used Addison Reed–Tyler Clippard–Jeurys Familia to close out a game with a six run lead. There was no reason for it. Worse yet, Collins admitted Familia pitching in Game 3 was a factor in him not using Familia for the four out save. He compromised his Game 4 bullpen for no reason. 

Game 4

I went on at length about this last night. I won’t belabor the points here, but it is important to re-examine his eighth inning:

  1. He immediately starts warming up Familia as the inning starts;
  2. He was waiting to use Familia once the go-ahead run got in base rather than nip a rally in the bud before it started; and
  3. He admitted to wanting to save Familia for Game 5. 

Excuse me?  You’re down 2-1 in the series. You win the game that’s in front of you. You have Matt Harvey tomorrow. He can give you length. Even if you lose Game 5, there is a tomorrow. 

Another thing that drove me nuts was pinch hitting Kelly Johnson for Juan Lagares. Johnson hadn’t hit all postseason in limited action. Lagares has had a terrific postseason with terrific at bats. The move made no sense. Predictably, Johnson didn’t reach base. No rally was started in the eighth. 

I still think the Mets can win the World Series, but if they don’t Terry Collins will be the biggest reason why. That’s something that should never happen. 


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Where’s Robles?

Looking over Hansel Robles‘ second half, he was terrific. He was 2-1 with a 3.16 ERA, 0.894 WHIP, and a 12.1 K/9. He’s only allowed batters to hit .171/.246/.450 against him. He gets both lefties and righties out effectively. 

I also loved the quick pitch. He’s chose his spots well. It’s kept batters off balance and I’ll at ease. It’s something that’s crucial in the postseason, especially against a Royals team that other than one at bat has been very comfortable in the World Series.

Terry Collins has sat him in place of Jon Niese and Bartolo Colon. It’s hard to argue there because they have mostly got the job done. You know who hadn’t?  Tyler Clippard.  Coming into the playoffs, there was no reason to believe he would. 

In September, he was dealing with a back injury. Coincidentally, he had a horrendous month. In his September and October regular season appearances, he made 14 appearances with a 6.14 ERA and a 1.295 WHIP. Batters hit .268/.323/.536 against him. Despite all evidence that he couldn’t get the job done, Collins left him as the eighth inning guy and left Robles behind. 

This postseason he has a 6.75 ERA with a 1.499 WHIP. He walked two batters in the eighth inning last night sparking the Royals rally and putting the Mets one game away from losing the World Series. Clippard’s performance should be a surprise to no one, and yet he keeps going out there in the highest leverage situations harming the Mets chances. 

And yet, the more effective Robles sits and watches. 

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Cueto Completed Dominant Royals Effort

Honestly, I thought the one run was going to hold up. Lucas Duda had an RBI single in the fourth. Johnny Cueto was starting to get wild. Jacob deGrom was dealing. Then the fifth inning happened. 

When the game started, I lived deGrom’s approach. He established the fastball and used his breaking pitches well. The Royals were making contact, but it wasn’t solid contact. I’m not sure what happened next, but there are some theories:

Whatever it was, it was a slow death for deGrom. The Royals batted around. They had four runs on one leadoff walk and five hits. To put it in perspective, deGrom let up five hits in Game 1 of the NLDS, six hits in Game 5 of the NLDS, and four hits in Game 3 of the NLCS. He practically let up as many hits in that inning as any game this postseason. It certainly leads credence to Adam Rubin’s information when you consider:

Regardless, deGrom didn’t have it in the fifth. Maybe it was Game 5 of the NLDS. Maybe Collins just wanted to outdo yesterday’s ineptitude. In any event, he let the game slip away with Jon Niese ready I the pen. 

Don’t worry, Niese warmed up again after an effective Hansel Robles appearance in the sixth. Collins would go an inning too long with Niese because why not?  The game was within reach at 4-1 going into the bottom of the eighth. It would be out of reach at 7-1 after that. On top of that the Mets probably lost Niese for at least Game 3. I really don’t know what Collins was thinking. 

To make matters worse, the Royals outpitched the Mets in this game. deGrom went five. Cueto pitched a two hit complete game. 

Tonight, the only good news was Duda. He was 2-3 with an RBI. He got the only two hits on the night. I guess the other good news is that the Mets are getting out of town. 

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Reasons for Optimism

Last night was a tough loss. It was bad from the beginning. Yoenis Cespedes turns a flyball into an inside the park homerun. The Mets blew a two run lead. Yet, the Mets were in position to win Game 1. Unfortunately, Jeurys Familia blew the save with one bad pitch. 

I’ll tell you what. If the Mets are in the same position again tonight, I like the Mets chances. Familia rarely blows a save. After his last blown save, he had 16 saves with a 1.30 ERA and a 1.048 WHIP. Before last night, he was 5/5 in save attempts with a 0.00 ERA and a 0.207 WHIP. He’s not blowing another save. 

Also, keep in mind almost everything had to break right for the Royals to win. They had a routine flyball turn into an inside the park homerun. Matt Harvey had to blow a 3-1 lead. He doesn’t blow leads like that. Twice the Mets picked themselves off the mat and twice got the lead. As much as the Royals fought back, the Mets did as well. 

Another important development was Wilmer Flores was terrific at SS last night. He made all the plays. At one point, he ranged into the hole, made a nice backhand pickup, and made a strong throw to first getting a speedy Alcides Escobar. He’s played this well since Ruben Tejada went down. 

We also know Michael Cuddyer is not getting three at bats in another World Series game. In fact, it’s possible he won’t get three more at bats in total during the rest of the series. He killed two rallies. He shouldn’t be in a position to kill another rally. 

Also, for all the talk of the Royals bullpen, the Mets bullpen was good. Addison Reed was terrific. Tyler Clippard needed some help from Familia, but the Mets did not allow a leadoff double to lead to a run. Jon Niese was terrific. It looks like the Mets bullpen can hold up in this series. 

Speaking of bullpens, the Royals used Game 4 starter, Chris Young, for three innings. The Mets were over anxious in extra innings against him. However, it can’t hurt to have seen him once. Also, he threw 53 pitches, and he will have to come back on three days rest for Game 4. 

With Johnny Cueto always being a risk for a meltdown, the Royals may need to go to the bullpen early. They will need to do it again in Game 4. The Royals terrific bullpen could quickly become taxed. Their greatest strength can quickly become a liability. 

Finally, as we all know momentum is the next day’s starting pitcher. That starting pitcher is Jacob deGrom. He’s been the Mets ace. In the postseason, he is 3-0 with a 1.80 ERA, 1.000 WHIP, and a 12.2 K/9. The Mets still have the starting pitching edge. The Mets have seen the Royals up close and can adjust their pitching accordingly. 

All the Mets needed in Kansas City was a split. That’s still on the table. There’s still reason for optimism. They can still win tonight. 

Lets Go Mets!

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Sheer Torture 

Coming into this game, neither the Mets nor the Royals had won the first game in the World Series. Last night into this morning, they turned it into an art form. 

Ultimately, the game came down to Chris Young and Bartolo Colon. One was as tall as the other one was wide. While Young was mowing down the Mets, Colon was on a tightrope. He finally fell through allowing a sac fly in the 14th. The winning runner was on base after a Wright error and no challenge. The game was just sheer torture. Prior to this, there was an actual baseball game. 

The game did not start the way Matt Harvey and the Mets wanted. Yoenis Cespedes misplayed a fly ball out into an Alcides Escobar inside the park homerun. The first in the World Series since a player named Mule Haas in the 1929 World Series. 

This would kill most teams, but these Mets have shown themselves to be resilient. Travis d’Arnaud singled in Daniel Murphy in the fourth. Curtis Granderson homered in the fifth. Conforto hit a sac fly scoring Cespedes in the sixth. 

Harvey was good tonight. Not great. Not bad. Just good. He pitched six innings allowing five hits, three earned, two walks, and two strikeouts. He was handed a two run lead in the sixth and couldn’t hold it.

After one run scored, he had a chance to get out of it with Mike Moustakas at the plate. Harvey stuck with the offspeed pitches and was seemingly pitching around him to get to Salvador Perez with first base open. A changeup caught too much of the plate, and Moustakas got the RBI single an inning after he made a diving stop to prevent a possible RBI double. From the seventh inning on, it was a battle of the bullpens. 

Remember, the biggest advantage the Royals had this series was the bullpen and team defense. Kelvin Herrera was lighting up the radar gun. He had two outs in the eight when Juan Lagares came to the plate. He was in the game as a defensive replacement for Michael Conforto. Mets fans collectively groaned. 

Lagares had a terrific at bat fighting off everything Herrera had. He got a single. He then barely stole second, and then this happened:

Actually, no, but it was close.

Wilmer Flores hit a chopper towards Eric Hosmer, who tried to backhand it. It went through him, and the Mets grabbed a 4-3 lead.  In a shock to everyone, Jeurys Familia blew the save on a Alex Gordon to homer in the ninth. It was a rare blown save:

Jon Niese came on to pitch in the game he was born to pitch in. Niese was born the day the Mets won the World Series. Well, he pitched like he was born for the moment. He went three innings holding the Royals at bay. 

As we know it wasn’t enough. After watching it part of me wishes the TV stayed off. 

 

However, the Mets hung in there. They’re resilient, and they have Jacob deGrom tonight. All they need is a split. It’s still on the table. I just hope Collins is better. The Mets generally need to be better. 
They will. They just need to show the same resiliency they’ve shown in this game and all year. 

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Worth the Wait?

The Mets have been waiting 15 years to go back to the World Series. They’ve been waiting 29 years for a World Series title. Many Mets fans haven’t seen or don’t remember 1986. Mets fans aren’t the only ones who have been waiting. 

There are players who have played their whole careers without playing in a World Series. The usual example is the late, great Ernie Banks. While none of the current Mets will be joining that group, there are many who have waited a long time to get here:

Bartolo Colon 18 years
Michael Cuddyer 15 years
David Wright 12 years
Tyler Clippard 9 years
Jon Niese 8 years
Daniel Murphy 7 years
It’s a long time to wait. These guys have earned it. They should each be proud of themselves. Twenty-four hours from now, they’ll be playing in their first World Series game. 

It’s been a long time, but I can’t wait. 

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