Bartolo Colon
Well, it seems I was wrong about Eric Young, Jr. I can’t say I am too upset about it. It seems like the last man on the roster will be Kirk Nieuwenhuis, although I still think Dilson Herrera is getting a long look as he’s not on the taxi squad.
With that said, here’s my re-revised NLDS roster projection.
Catchers
1. Travis d’Arnaud
2. Kevin Plawecki
Infielders
3. Lucas Duda
4. Daniel Murphy
5. David Wright
6. Ruben Tejada
7. Wilmer Flores
8. Kelly Johnson
Outfielders
9. Michael Conforto
10. Yoenis Cespedes
11. Curtis Granderson
12. Michael Cuddyer
13. Juan Lagares
14. Kirk Nieuwenhuis
Starting Pitchers
15. Jacob deGrom
16. Noah Sundergaard
17. Matt Harvey
18. Bartolo Colon
Bullpen
19. Jeurys Familia
20. Addison Reed
21. Tyler Clippard
22. Hansel Robles
23. Jon Niese
24. Erik Goeddel
25. Sean Gilmartin
If he’s healthy, and he won’t be, Juan Uribe would replace Nieuwenhuis. Also, I’m not putting Steven Matz on my projected roster because he didn’t pitch. If I hear differently with the Instructuonal League appearance, I may still leave him off the projected roster.
I can’t trust the Mets to be honest on the topic. If I’m convinced, then I would slot him in the rotation moving Colon to the bullpen. That would then bump Gilmartin from the roster.
I’m not calling this 2.0. To me that would indicate that I will make a number of changes, but I wanted to show you my work product. There’s nothing wrong with that, but that’s not my intention when I share my projections.
However, there has been another major development with Steven Matz‘s back. As I said yesterday, I was not going to trust he was going to pitch until he actually pitches.
Catchers
1. Travis d’Arnaud
2. Kevin Plawecki
Infielders
3. Lucas Duda
4. Daniel Murphy
5. Kelly Johnson
6. David Wright
7. Ruben Tejada
8. Wilmer Flores
Outfielders
9. Michael Conforto
10. Michael Cuddyer
11. Yoenis Cespedes
12. Juan Lagares
13. Curtis Granderson
Pinch Runner
14. Eric Young, Jr.
Starting Pitchers
15. Jacob deGrom
16. Noah Syndergaard
17. Matt Harvey
18. Bartolo Colon
Relief Pitchers
19. Jeurys Familia
20. Addison Reed
21. Tyler Clippard
22. Hansel Robles
23. Jon Niese
24. Sean Gilmartin
25. Erik Goeddel
As you can see, the only change I made between the projections was exchanging Matz for Goeddel. I chose Goeddel because he’s been pretty good lately, and he can generate strikeouts with his splitter.
I still think there are two other players under consideration: Kirk Nieuwenhuis and Dilson Herrera. Kirk has been good lately, has some power, can run, and can play all three OF positions. However, since he’s a left handed bat going into a series with a lot of LHP, I don’t think the Mets will put him on the roster.
I think Dilson is getting consideration because he’s a right handed bat and definitively the team’s best defensive second baseman. With Flores’ back injury, Herrera is a definite possibility. What hurts him most is he only plays 2B. As I said in another post, the presence of Murphy and Johnson could alleviate those concerns.
However, for right now, I think the Mets give EY the edge, especially because he’s a Terry Collins favorite. If anything else happens, I’ll put out another revised projection.
In an effort to pitch in the playoffs, Jon Niese volunteered to pitch in the bullpen. His first two appearances did not go well, but not all hope is lost. There are still some reasons why the Mets may want him on the NLDS roster, namely:
I think this is why Jon Niese will be on the postseason roster.
Chase Utley: 3 for 32 against him
Adrian Gonzalez: 0 for 9 against him
— Mark Simon (@MarkASimonSays) October 1, 2015
With those numbers against the Dodgers best hitter, there’s a spot for you on the team. He would most likely get the call when/if Gonzalez is up in a big spot.
Here’s his head-to-head data against some of the other Dodger players:
Jimmy Rollins 12-54, 3 doubles, 4 walks, 8 strikeouts
Carl Crawford 0-3
Andre Ethier 4-10, 2 strikeouts
A.J.Ellis 2-11, 1 double, two walks, 1 strikeout
Chris Heisey 3-10, 1 homerun, 1 strikeout
Howie Kendrick 1-7, 1 strikeout
Basically, he pitched pretty well against them. If not for 2015 arguably being his worst year and the presence of better options, you could make the argument he could start.
Besides his success against the Dodgers, Steven Matz has been dealing with a balky back. This means the Mets will need to have Bartolo Colon start Game Four or be ready to pitch in Game Four if Marz goes down. This means Niese may need to be ready as the long man in Colon’s stead
The other reason why he may be out there is the Mets don’t have a true LOOGY. They’re going to need someone to get those lefties out in the NLDS, and I’m not sure they’re going to trust Hansel Robles, even if he has the best numbers against lefties. If you’re going to insist on a lefty against a lefty, you might as well use one who’s had success against the Dodgers.
With three games left, there’s not much time to get him fully up to speed in the bullpen. At best, he probably can pitch in two more games. No matter what happens in those games, it will be a gamble to put Niese in the bullpen.
I’ll take that gamble over the gamble of having someone else pitching to Gonzalez in a big spot.
In 2013, Michael Wacha burst on the scene in the playoffs, and it was declared “Wachtober.” If the Mets go far in the postseason, here are some suggestions for the new Wachtober:
Matt Harvey – Mattober or Dark Knightober
Jacob deGrom -Jaketober
Noah Syndergaard – Thortober
Steven Matz – Matztober
Bartolo Colon – Bartober
Curtis Granderson – Curtober
Daniel Murphy – Murphtober
David Wright – Wrightober
Michael Conforto – Confortober
Yoenis Cespedes – Yotober
Of course, this is dependent on the Mets making a deep run and one, or more of these guys being a major contributor. I hope I get to use these.
If you have a suggestion (even to an existing one), please pass it along. If I like it, I will update the list and credit your Twitter handle.
After the Mets clinched, the rumblings began that Bartolo Colon may be in the postseason rotation:
https://twitter.com/jareddiamond/status/648148020169732096
Regardless of Steven Matz‘s recent sofa injury, it seems like Colon may have had an inside track to the NLDS rotation anyway:
Sandy said Colon's experience vs Matz inexperience is a factor in the 4th rotation spot in the playoffs. #mets
— Michael Baron (@michaelgbaron) September 29, 2015
There’s some merit to the decision. Experience can help calm nerves in the playoffs. Colon doesn’t walk anyone. Most importantly, he was good in his only start against the Dodgers this year (even if it was a loss).
However, I’m having some trouble trying to reconcile Colon in the rotation with the fact that Matz will definitely be on the playoff roster. The reason why I’m having trouble is because the Mets have been steadfast in saying Matz will not pitch in the bullpen. Therefore, I think the Mets announced, without announcing it, Matz will be the fourth starter.
I think it’s the right move. The Dodgers have a lot of lefties in the lineup. Colon has not been good against over .500 teams. Matz has better stuff. It’s time to get Matz and his grandfather ready for Game 4 . . . if necessary.
If rumors are correct, the Mets will go with the four man rotation of Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Matt Harvey, and Steven Matz. I put them purposefully in that order because that’s how the Nets intend to line them up in the playoffs.
These four pitchers have had zero postseason appearances. In fact, as a group, they have less than five years of experience. This just highlights the total lack of postseason experience for the entire Mets staff. Overall, there are only three pitchers on the Mets who have any playoff experience:
- Bartolo Colon (10 starts) 2-4, 3.70 ERA, 58.1 IP, 1.389 WHIP
- Tyler Clippard (3 appearances) 0-0, 1.50 ERA, 6 IP, 0 SV, 0.667 WHIP
- Eric O’Flaherty (1 appearance) 0-0, 0.00 ERA, 1 IP, 0 SV, 2.00 WHIP
Unless his back prevents him, Clippard will be on the postseason roster. I believe the Mets will find a spot for Colon even if he isn’t starting. There’s no shot that O’Flaherty makes the team.
I’m not concerned at all. This was the case with the 1991 Braves rotation,nand they went to the World Series. The same goes for the 2003 Marlins. The 2008 Giants had a young core of starting pitchers they relied upon to win their first World Series in San Francisco. K-Rod burst on the scene on the 2002 Angels World Series Championship team. There’s another, better example for Mets fans. 1986.
In 1986, the Mets had Dwight Gooden (3 major league seasons), Ron Darling (4 major league seasons), Bobby Ojeda (7 major league season), and Sid Fernandez (4 major league seasons) make starts. Combined they had more than triple the major league experience of this current group of pitchers. However, they were still young and had zero postseason experience. The lack of postseason experience didn’t hold them back. The reason was their talent.
That’s right. For all the talk about what wins in the playoffs, we always forget the talent gap. This Mets rotation is the most talented in the NL, most likely all of baseball. If I have to choose between experience and talent, I pick talent every time.
It looks like the Mets are as well. Then again what choice do they have?
As the Mets have clinched the NL East winning and losing have taken a back seat to figuring out who will be on the postseason roster. These are almost like Spring Training Games. If you care about the final score, the Mets lost 4-3.
Personally, I was more concerned with Jon Niese‘s relief appearance. He entered the game after Bartolo Colon left after five with the Mets trailing 3-1. In his first inning of work, Niese faced the minimum with some help from Yoenis Cespedes:
Run on @ynscspds at your own risk. http://t.co/UfrGuIYL9r #LGM pic.twitter.com/v4GVzecc7R
— New York Mets (@Mets) September 30, 2015
I was surprised Niese came out for the seventh. I was disappointed it didn’t go well. He would get the first two outs, which included a strike out of Travis d’Arnaud‘s brother. The next two Phillies got on, and Niese was lifted. Erik Goeddel, who’s also battling to be on the playoff roster, allowed an inherited run ER to score before getting a strikeout to end the inning.
Overall, Niese’s appearance was uneven. There was only one hard hit ball, but he was bailed out by Cespedes. Lefties went 2-3 with two singles against him. He seemed to throw a little more sidearm than usual. I would say this is a starting off point, but he did not leave much room for error with only five games left in the season.
In terms of highlights, Lucas Duda hit his 100th and 101st career homeruns. The aforementioned Cespedes throw in the sixth, and the Michael Conforto diving catch in the eighth.
However, the important part of the night was Niese was in the bullpen, and he showed he might be able to handle it.
I thought I knew Jon Niese. I thought he was the guy who was weak mentally and made excuses for his poor outings. After the Mets clinched, we found out he’s a guy that will do whatever he can to win:
Jon Niese approached Terry Collins about pitching out of the bullpen — not the other way around. He'll start doing so this week. #Mets
— Anthony DiComo (@AnthonyDiComo) September 27, 2015
Niese has been a starter for his entire career. He made his one and only relief appearance in 2011. This is no small gesture on his part even if he knows it’s his only chance to be on the playoff roster. If he does make the roster, what will his bullpen role be?
Well, for starters, we know, he won’t be a set up guy for Jeurys Familia. Those roles are firmly in the hands of Addison Reed and Tyler Clippard (back willing). If either of them faulter, the Mets could go with multiple inning appearances from Familia or go to Hansel Robles. That means the bullpen spots remaining are long man and LOOGY.
I’m not sure he qualifies as a LOOGY. For his career, lefties hit .262/.314/.397 off of him. This year lefties are hitting .285/.325/.431 off of him. By comparison, lefties are hitting .169/.217/.351 off of Robles. I’m not sure if Terry Collins would be willing to use Robles as a LOOGY in the playoffs.
He may feel inclined to use the only effective lefty reliever he has: Sean Gilmartin. He’s been better than Niese against lefties, but not by much. Lefties hit .264/.316/.341 off of him. It’s probably one of the reasons he became the long man. Gilmartin and Niese will face some competition for that role against Bartolo Colon.
Unlike Colon, Niese is moving to the bullpen now. It’s possible with him being able to max out for one inning, he will be much better against lefties. He may be better against righties for that matter. Niese has occasionally liked to drop his arm angle. If some effectively, he could be another Pedro Feliciano. If not, at least he tried.
Honestly, I hope he makes it. Of all the pitchers on the Mets staff, he’s been here the longest. I’m glad he’s getting his chance. I hope he makes the most of it.
Well this game went haywire fast. One moment Bartolo Colon is cruising to another win against an NL East opponent. He had gone 4.2 perfect and was not threatened through six. The next thing you know, Terry Collins goes into full panic mode.
The Braves quickly loaded the bases in the sixth. Collins then forgot how to manage. He brought in Addison Reed (fine move) by double switching Michael Conforto out of the game for Kirk Nieuwenhuis (ponderous). Essentially, Collins took out a good defensive OF for decent defensive OF who also hits left handed. If it was a defensive move, Collins left his best defensive OF, Juan Lagares, on the bench.
It has to be the only reason. After Reed allowed a bases clearing double to put the Mets behind 3-2, he wouldn’t come back out for the seventh. Don’t kill Reed. He was beat by Mets killer Freddie Freeman.
When the Braves figured out they can use a left handed reliever, Nieuwenhuis was out of the game in favor of Michael Cuddyer, who didn’t get the job done.
Collins did get one thing right. After Ruben Tejada singled to lead off the inning, Collins eventually realized Eric Young, Jr. was available to pinch run. He came on, stole a base, and he scored on a David Wright RBI two out single tying the game at 3-3. By the way, Young set a Mets record with nine runs scored before getting a hit.
Unfortunately, Collins inane managing came back to haunt the Mets. In the eighth inning, Conforto’s spot came up with two outs and one on. Instead of Conforto, it was the pinch hitter Kelly Johnson, who struck out. In the next half inning, Freeman hit a three run homerun off Jeurys Familia giving the Braves the 6-3 lead.
Collins was horrendous tonight. He claims the Mets are tight. He looked like he was the one that was tight . . . at least I hope that was the reason.
When the Mets added Addison Reed right before the waiver trade deadline, the Mets had their sights set on a shutdown 7-8-9 featuring three closers. So far, each of them have performed extremely well.
You know what’s shocking? Even though the Mets have had the Addison Reed-Tyler Clippard–Jeurys Familia triumvirate together for three weeks, they only appeared together in the same game only three times. They’ve never collectively blown a lead, but the tandem has only resulted in one save. Like last night, it had more to do with the Mets tacking on eighth inning runs more than anything.
In any event, Mets fans can be confident the bullpen can hold leads and/or keep the Mets in a game. I also believe the Mets will ride this trio hard because the Mets starters go deep into games. Jacob deGrom and Matt Harvey average 6.1 innings per start (average rounded down to nearest third of an inning). Noah Syndergaard and Steven Matz average 6.0 innings per start (major league starts only). Bartolo Colon averages six innings per start. Jon Niese isn’t going to start in the playoffs.
If you’re starters are going at least six, you only need your triumvirate. If your starters are going less than five, you’re in trouble anyway. Even if you need to pull a starter early, there are viable options. Hansel Robles has been terrific, especially in the second half with a 2.60 ERA, 0.904 WHIP, 12.4 K/9, and a triple slash of .173/.250/.429. He’s been good enough to consider him as part of a 6-7-8-9 shut down bullpen.
In a do or die game, Terry Collins has shown he will manage accordingly. He will have a quick hook and trust his key bullpen arms. If he will lean heavily on these three or four guys that’s good news. Familia for one has shown the ability to go multiple innings. I imagine Collins is going to ride him like Joe Torre rode Mariano Rivera (calm down, it’s only a usage comparison).
For people worrying about the 11 runs allowed by the bullpen on Sunday, don’t. Robles had a hick up. He’s allowed. Eric O’Flaherty pitched in that game while the game was still in the balance. He won’t pitch in the playoffs. I’m going to discount this game especially with the rough Robles outing and the relievers that appeared in the game.
Overall, the Mets bullpen is in great shape heading into the playoffs. They can stretch out their main four guys in a do or die game. These guys can keep a game close or hold a lead. I’m even confident after the last Nationals series, Collins will deploy them properly and out them in a position to succeed.
Surprisingly, the bullpen is a major strength of this team . . . even if no one is saying it.