He’s worked hard to get to this point, and the Mets have rewarded the work by adding Juan Uribe to the World Series roster:
Juan Uribe is on the #Mets World Series roster. Matt Reynolds is off.
— Steve Gelbs (@SteveGelbs) October 27, 2015
The Case for Uribe
This team turned around with the Uribe trade. He’s been on World Series winners in 2005 and 2010. You’re hoping for a little five year luck there.
Unlike most teams, the Royals have two lefties in the pen with Danny Duffy and Franklin Morales. Adding Uribe gives the Mets an extra right handed bat off the bench. After Michael Cuddyer the Mets can turn to Uribe. This allows Juan Lagares to be a defensive replacement, and Kevin Plawecki to be ready for a Travis d’Arnaud injury. Don’t worry I tapped on every piece of wood within the nearest square mile after typing that.
Additionally, it lengthens the bench. In a way, it’s amazing the Mets playing with a 24 man roster never caught up with them. In actuality, there was no way Matt Reynolds was going to play. At least now, the Mets don’t have a dead roster spot.
I have to say it’s a pretty convincing case. I still don’t like the move.
The Case Against Uribe
The last time the Mets thought Uribe could go, he exacerbated his chest injury. If that happens in the World Series, the Mets will be burning through 3-4 players in one at bat (original player, Uribe, new batter, defensive replacement). If this happens in Citi Field, this team is in real trouble.
The next reason is your backup SS is now Kelly Johnson. He’s only played one game at SS, and that was this year. He’s the DH in Game One. If anything happens to Wilmer Flores, the Mets have a terrible choice to make. Do you lose the DH? Do you move David Wright and his back there? Do you put Uribe there? Or my personal favorite:
Is everyone forgetting they can put Jacob deGrom at SS in a pinch?
— Joe DeMayo (@PSLToFlushing) October 27, 2015
Yes, the Mets can put Reynolds on the roster for the injured player, but that’s only AFTER the game. If anything happens to Flores, you’re playing a game without a SS [insert Flores isn’t a SS jokes here]. How quickly the Mets have forgotten that Flores almost had to leave Game 4 of the NLCS after hitting his head.
Furthermore, you’re risking a lot for someone who’s not a terrific hitter. In his playoff career, he has hit .204/.241/.338. As a Met, he has hit .219/.301/.430. As a pinch hitter this year, he has hit .190/.320/.333. He’s 0-4 this year as a DH. It’s just too much to risk for someone that really only plays third and just doesn’t hit the way you think he does.
Yes, he can change a game and a series with one swing of the bat. It still doesn’t change the fact that this move is extremely risky. I hope he does not only because he’s a Mets fan, but also he’s a big part of this team.
This is the most excited I’ve ever been for a World Series. It’s the most excited I’ve been for a Mets game. However, I’m nervous.
I’m nervous because these Royals are the best team the Mets will face. This is a team with no quit. It seems like they’re a team of destiny. They only lost last year because of Madison Bumgarner. They’re offense is much improved. Once they get a lead, you know Wade Davis isn’t relinquishing it. It’s hard to find a reason why they’ll lose.
Then I remembered something. These Mets are built to beat the Royals. For all the talk of the the Royals offense, they’re starters have been awful this postseason. The Mets have beat much better pitching, and they’re primed to beat up on much weaker pitching.
Furthermore, if the Mets have proven anything good pitching beats good pitching. The Cubs were a better offensive team than the Royals. They were shut down. Bumgarner shut the Royals down last year. The Mets have three aces that pitch very similarly. When I look at the matchups and the pitching, the Mets are better.
Ultimately, when making a prediction it’s not a question of how, it’s a question of when . . .
Mets in 6.
So far in the playoffs, the Mets have faced the top two 1-2 starting pitching tandems in a of baseball. I didn’t forget the Mets here. They’re a trio, but I digress. In the games started by those pitchers, the Mets are 4-2. In all other games, they are 3-0.
In the NLDS, the Mets had to face Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke four out of five games. In those games, the Mets averaged 1.5 runs per game and 5 hits per game. Despite this, the Mets still advanced in the NLDS behind their own terrific pitching.
In the NLCS, the Mets faced Jon Lester and Jake Arrieta just one game each due to the sweep. In those two games, the Mets averaged 4 runs per game and 6.5 hits per game. Keep in mind Greinke, Kershaw, and Arrieta are going to finish 1-3 in the Cy Young voting. The Mets were 3-2 against them. When you beat good pitching you advance in the postseason.
In the World Series, the Mets won’t face a Greinke, Kershaw, or Arrieta. In the playoff games not started by those pitchers, the Mets average 7.5 runs per game and 10.8 hits per game. While the Mets may not have the greatest numbers against some of the Royals starters, they are still facing a starting staff who is struggling in the postseason:
Royals starters: 5.56 ERA this postseason, 3rd-highest rotation ERA by a team to reach the World Series in Wild Card era (1995) @EliasSports
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) October 27, 2015
Furthermore, the Royals are allowing 4 runs per game and 8.5 hits per game. This shows us what we know. The Royals started haven’t been good, but their bullpen has been terrific. This means the Mets must jump on the starters early and often.
Ultimately, the Mets have been teeing off on inferior pitching. If this continues, we may see an unexpectedly offensive series. If that’s the case, the Mets will be scoring runs at a much higher rate. Hopefully, it’s a high enough rate that the Royals can’t keep up.
In any event, I don’t care how the Mets do it. I just care that they win.
Let’s face facts. If not for Madison Bumgarner, this would be a title defense for the Royals as opposed to redemption. It took Bumgarner everything he had to help the Giants win the World Series.
In the 2014 World Series, Bumgarner went 2-0 with 1 save, a 0.43 ERA, 0.476 WHIP, and a 7.3 K/9. He basically said to his teammates, I got three; you just need to get one. In the three games he pitched in, the Royals averaged one run per game. In the other games, the Royals averaged six runs per game. That’s a huge gap.
With all the noise over the Royals hitting the 95+ MPH pitching well, I wanted to see what Bumgarner threw in that World Series:
- 93.40 MPH fastball 52.23% of the time
- 85.04 MPH changeup 3.78% of the time
- 76.25 MPH curve 15.12% of the time
- 87.46 MPH cutter 27.84% of the time
- 67.20 MPH slow curve 1.03% of the time
This shows not only how to beat the Royals but how to pitch in general. You want to establish the fastball and keep the batters off balance with the offspeed pitches. Let’s see how the Mets stud muffins compare this postseason:
- 95.86 MPH fastball 59.56% of the time
- 88.08 MPH change 11.48% of the time
- 90.29 MPH slider 14.75% of the time
- 84.01 MPH curve 14.21% of the time
- 96.23 MPH fastball 37.89% of the time
- 96.44 MPH sinker 18.01% of the time
- 86.54 MPH change 15.84% of the time
- 90.03 MPH slider 12.01% of the time
- 81.63 MPH curve 16.15% of the time
- 98.66 MPH fastball 26.64% of the time
- 98.63 MPH sinker 32.31% of the time
- 89.46 MPH change 16.16% of the time
- 87.96 MPH slider 8.73% of the time
- 81.53 MPH curve 16.16% of the time
What does this information tell us? The Mets three aces pitch similarly to Bumgarner. They establish the fastball and use the same ratio of breaking pitches to keep the hitters off balance. There are two key differences here: (1) Bumgarner is a lefty; and (2) the Royals offense is much improved.
However, keep in mind the Royals couldn’t handle Bumgarner at all last year. Now, the Mets are running out three Bumgarners out there. They will pitch in six of the seven games if necessary.
In the end, I’m not sure how the Royals can keep up their 5.9 runs per postseason game. If they want to beat the Mets they will either have to find a way or pitch much better. If they don’t do either or both, the Mets will win the World Series.
The 2014 World Series was a classic. Most that go 7 games are. This one had the added touch of having the game tying run 90 feet away and the go-ahead run at the plate.
Overall, the Royals have largely remained unchanged in their everyday lineup. There were three notable changes:
- DH: Billy Butler for Kendrys Morales
- 2B: Omar Infante* for Ben Zobrist
- RF: Nori Aoki for Alex Rios
Last year Butler hit .271/.323/.379 with 9 HR and 66 RBI. In the postseason, he hit .262/.327/.333 0 HR and 8 RBI. This year, Morales hit .290/.362/.485 with 22 HR and 106 RBI. This postseason, he is batting .268/.348/.780 with 4 HR and 10 RBI. This is a massive upgrade at the DH position.
Last year, Infante hit .252/.295/.337 with 6 HR and 66 RBI. In the postseason, he hit .255/.321/.373 with 1 HR and six RBI. Since joining the Royals and taking over for Infante, Zobrist hit .284/.364/.453. In the postseason, he has hit .326/.340/.558. Again, it’s a massive upgrade.
Last year, Aoki hit .285/.349/.360 with 1 HR and 43 RBI. In the postseason, he hit .195/.292/.487 with 0 HR and 3 RBI. In his place, Rios hit .255/.287/.353 with 4 HR and 32 RBI. In the postseason, he has hit .333/.389/.485 with 1 HR and 5 RBI. While Aoki was the better player in the regular season, Rios has been a much better postseason player.
Overall, the Royals are a much more dangerous offensive team than the team that averaged 4.8 runs per game in the playoffs and 4 runs per game in the World Series last year. So far, the Royals are averaging 5.9 runs per game. They need to because:
Royals starters: 5.56 ERA this postseason, 3rd-highest rotation ERA by a team to reach the World Series in Wild Card era (1995) @EliasSports
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) October 27, 2015
What this shows us is that even though the Royals have a much better offense, their pitching is suffering. It’s why the Royals practically swept through the American League last year and went the distance in the ALDS and was almost pushed to the limit in the ALCS.
The Royals will now face much better pitching and go to a pitcher’s park on the road (as opposed to Minute Maid and the Rogers Centre). It’s a dangerous offense, but the Mets pitching staff should be up for the challenge.
The Mets have been waiting 15 years to go back to the World Series. They’ve been waiting 29 years for a World Series title. Many Mets fans haven’t seen or don’t remember 1986. Mets fans aren’t the only ones who have been waiting.
There are players who have played their whole careers without playing in a World Series. The usual example is the late, great Ernie Banks. While none of the current Mets will be joining that group, there are many who have waited a long time to get here:
Bartolo Colon 18 years
Michael Cuddyer 15 years
David Wright 12 years
Tyler Clippard 9 years
Jon Niese 8 years
Daniel Murphy 7 years
It’s a long time to wait. These guys have earned it. They should each be proud of themselves. Twenty-four hours from now, they’ll be playing in their first World Series game.
It’s been a long time, but I can’t wait.
The Royals named Edison Volquez as their Game One starter. The Volquez-Johnny Cueto decision wasn’t like what the Mets faced before in the playoffs. However, it merited consideration, and the Royals went with Volquez.
This year Volquez was 13-9 with a 3.55 ERA, 3.82 FIP, 1.308 WHIP, and a 7.0 K/9. That’s where the good ends for Volquez. In his career, he is 1-4 with a 6.56 ERA, 1.543 WHIP, and a 6.9 K/9. He’s been slightly better this postseason going 1-2 with a 4.32 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, and a 8.1 K/9. In the end, what matters most is how he’s pitched against the Mets:
Curtis Granderson 3-12 with 2 HR, 3 RBI, 4 BB, 4 K
David Wright 6-25 with 1 HR, 4 RBI, 5 BB, 4 K
Daniel Murphy 3-17 with 1 RBI, 1 BB, 1 K
Yoenis Cespedes 0-2 with 1 K
Lucas Duda 3-15 with 1 HR, 3 RBI, 2 BB, 10 K
Travis d’Arnaud 0-0
Michael Conforto 0-0
Wilmer Flores 1-6 with 1 double
Juan Lagares 2-12 with 1 BB and 2 K
Combined 18-99 (.182 BA), 12 BB (.270 OBP), 1 double, 4 HR (.253 slugging), 11 RBI, and 22 K
Here’s how the bench has fared against Volquez:
Michael Cuddyer 1-6 with 1 double
Kelly Johnson 4-14 with 1 double, 2 RBI, 3 BB, 5 K
Kirk Nieuwenhuis 1-3 with 2 K
Kevin Plawecki 0-0
Matt Reynolds 0-0
Bench 6-23 (.263) with 3 BB (.346 OBP), 2 double (.467 slugging), 2 RBI, 1 K
In essence, Volquez had pitched well against the Mets. However, the Mets players have gotten to him. When the Mets have made contact, they’ve hit homeruns. It’ll be tough to hit homers in a stadium like Kauffman.
Fortunately, the Mets have better pitching than the Royals. If the Mets pitch how they should, they will need just one of those blasts to win the game, similar to the NLDS.
It seemed like the immediate narrative after the conclusion of both League Championship Series was the Mets biggest strength may not be a strength in the World Series:
Royals vs. 95-mph+ pitches, MLB ranks in parentheses:
BA: .284 (1st)
SLG: .432 (2nd)
K%: 15.1% (1st)Mets throw the most 95-mph+ pitches.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) October 24, 2015
As we all know, the Mets greatest strength is its good young pitching. The Mets pitching throws it hard and over 95 MPH:
- Matt Harvey – 96.54 MPH four seamer and 96.11 MPH sinker
- Jacob deGrom – 95.81 MPH four seamer and 95.49 MPH sinker
- Noah Syndergaard – 97.75 MPH four seamer and 97.78 MPH sinker
- Steven Matz 94.57 MPH four seamer
- Jeurys Familia 98.21 MPH four seamer and 97.66 MPH sinker
That’s not good news. Fortunately for the Mets, that’s not the whole story. While the Royals hit high heat well, they do not hit offspeed pitching and breaking balls well. The Royals are only hitting .220 on pitches 87 MPH and below. The highest percentage of Mets pitches this postseason was in this range.
We saw it in the NLCS. The Mets did throw their 95+ MPH fastballs, but they also mixed in their offspeed and breaking pitches early. The Mets pitching isn’t great just because of their fastballs. They’re great because they pitch great.
During the regular season, the Mets ranked second in WHIP with a 1.18 mark. They ranked fourth with a 3.49 K/BB ratio. They ranked fourth with a 3.43 ERA. They allowed the second least amount of walks, and they were sixth with a .243 batting average against. All said and done, if you want to beat the Mets pitching, you have to beat them. They’re not going to walk you, and they’re not giving up many hits.
This either lines up perfectly for the Royals or it’ll be a complete disaster. The Royals were second to last in walks. They struck out the least amount of times. They were third in team batting average. They were 24th (last in the AL) in homers, but they were 11th in slugging.
Overall, the Royals put a lot of balls in play against a staff that doesn’t allow a lot of hits. At times like this, I’m reminded of the adage of good pitching beats good hitting. It’s worked for the Mets so far this postseason.
On one warm May night, Matt Harvey took the mound. I had never seen anyone as dominant as Harvey was that night. To say he was perfect was an understatement.
Through 6.2 innings, no one could touch him. He had already struck out nine batters. He walked no one. Then Alex Rios stepped to the plate. I remember leaning over to my brother and saying, “this is it right here. He’s the only one that can do it.” Then he did.
Actually, it wasn’t that simple. Rios hit the ball to an out of position Ruben Tejada, who couldn’t get enough on the ball to throw out a speedy Rios. That was all Harvey allowed. After that, he would strike out another three and pitch nine innings needing just 107 pitches. Believe it or not, it was a no decision as the Mets couldn’t score until the tenth inning.
A lot has happened since then. Harvey had Tommy John. He went from fan favorite to villain to fan favorite again. Rios has changed teams twice in the hopes of making the postseason. He did this year. In Game One, he faces off against Matt Harvey for the first time since that fateful at bat.
Yet again, Alex Rios stands in the way of the Mets making history. It’s time to rewrite the ending.
Throughout 2015, Jacob deGrom has been the Mets ace. He deserved to get the ball in the first game of the playoffs. He delivered not once, not twice, but in all three of his postseason starts. So why hand the ball to Matt Harvey now?
First, it was his turn in the rotation. Players are creatures of habit. This goes doubly so for starting pitchers. There’s no need to take the pitchers out of their routine right now, especially with a long layover after sweeping the Cubs.
Second, deGrom needs a little more rest. His velocity has dipped by about three MPH. He’s had less control going from 71.7% strikes to just 61.5% in the NLCS. In addition, deGrom could benefit from extra rest. During the regular season, he posted a 2.63 ERA with more than five days of rest. That’s worse than his four day rest (1.47 ERA) numbers, but it is better than his five days rest numbers (3.27 ERA).
Third, Harvey may have more availability:
TC to Matt Harvey on Game 1:
"You ready for it?"
Harvey: "Damn right"
And on working Game 7 in relief:
"I'll be ready."
— Adam Rubin (@AdamRubinMedia) October 24, 2015
We saw the advantage it was having Noah Syndergaard available in Game 5 of the NLDS. You want your best pitchers as much as possible. That should include Harvey pitching in Game 7. Note, I believe deGrom would go to the whip as well if the roles were reversed.
Fourth, Harvey is pitching a little better right now. In his last start, Harvey pitched 7.2 innings allowing 4 hits, 2 earned, 2 walks, and 9 strikeouts. He was perfect through four. I’m not sure the Cubs even get a run in the game if not for a Juan Lagares misplay.
In his last start deGrom pitched well. He pitched 7.0 innings allowing 4 hits, 2 earned, 1 walk, and 7 strikeouts. It’s picking nits, but deGrom wasn’t as good as Harvey. However, when you have three great starting pitchers, picking nits is all you have.
Fifth, through all of it Harvey might just be the better pitcher. It doesn’t change the fact that deGrom had a better year, but Harvey has better stuff. No, I don’t have something to link here. It’s just my belief. Harvey has pitched extremely well coming off of Tommy John surgery; the year in which pitchers struggle the most. Harvey has his same repertoire of pitches and added a curveball. He has more ways to get you out.
Overall, I’d go with Harvey. You can make an excellent case for deGrom as well. You can make a compelling case for Thor as well. In the end, that’s the best news. We’re arguing over three pitchers who would all arguably take the ball in Game One for the Royals.
Sometimes, minor discussions like this gives you the biggest hope the Mets will win this World Series.