If there’s one thing that drives me crazy every year, it’s position by position breakdowns. I see it with the Subway Series. It is done with the playoffs. Anthony Castrovince of MLB.com did one of these. It was well thought out and put together. However, it really doesn’t mean anything.
I don’t say this to diminish his work. I’m just tired of the story. I’ve seen the feedback to the breakdown. The biggest argument people seem to have is Lorenzo Cain as being a better CF than Yoenis Cespedes. The focus there is misplaced and not just because he was right. It’s misplaced because Cain doesn’t battle Cespedes. No position player battles another one unless Chase Utley is involved.
Think about any position to position breakdown you might see. Does it really matter if someone has Wade Davis or Jeurys Familia as the better closer? Think about it. Even if Davis is a better closer, do Mets fans really think Familia is going to blow a save because Davis is better? Are the Mets going to lose this series because the Royals have a better SS? Are the Mets going to win because they have the better RF? Of course not.
The Mets will win or lose because of matchups and in game maneuvers. The Mets will win because they have the better pitching. The Mets may lose because the Royals have superior team defense, speed, and bullpen. This is what people should analyze.
It’s exactly what I did in the NLDS and NLCS in predicting a Mets victory. It’s the right way to do it. I’ll have a prediction tomorrow. I hope the numbers again (and not just my heart) will point to the Mets
Sometimes, there’s no rhyme or reason for things. I think this sums up Johnny Cueto‘s 2015 season. He went from a hitters’ ballpark with poor defense to a pitchers ballpark with terrific defense and got worse. It doesn’t make sense especially when you consider he left the best division in baseball for one of the worst.
With the Reds, Cueto averaged 6.2 innings per start going 7-6 with a 2.62 ERA, 3.20 FIP, 0.934 WHIP, and a 8.3 K/9. With the Royals, he averaged 6.0 innings per start with a 4.76 ERA, 4.06 FIP, 1.461 WHIP, and a 6.2 K/9. Sure, he was incredible in the clinching game of the NLDS, but his two other starts were terrible. In Game Three of the ALCS, he took the loss allowing six hits, eight earned, four walks, and two strikeouts over two innings.
Historically, Cueto hasn’t faired well against the Mets either. In his career, he is 3-4 against the Mets with a 4.02 ERA, 1.369 WHIP, and a 10.0 K/9. At Citi Field, he is slightly better with a 2-2 record, 3.60 ERA, 1.267 WHIP, and a 10.5 K/9. The Mets will face him at Kauffman Stadium in Game One. There he is 3-5 with a 3.88 ERA, 1.294 WHIP, and a 6.9 K/9. He’s prime to get hit by the Mets. The only issues is how do these Mets hit him?
Here’s the numbers against the presumed Game One starting lineup:
Curtis Granderson 3-12 with 2 HR, 3 RBI, 4 BB, 4 K
David Wright 6-25 with 1 HR, 4 RBI, 5 BB, 4 K
Daniel Murphy 3-17 with 1 RBI, 1 BB, 1 K
Yoenis Cespedes 0-2 with 1 K
Lucas Duda 3-15 with 1 HR, 3 RBI, 2 BB, 10 K
Travis d’Arnaud 0-0
Michael Conforto 0-0
Wilmer Flores 1-6 with 1 double
Juan Lagares 2-12 with 1 BB, and 2 K
Combined 17-89 (.191 BA) with 12 BB (.287 OBP), 1 double, 4 HR (.337 slugging), 11 RBI, and 21 K
Here’s how the projected bench has hit against him:
Kelly Johnson 1-6 with 1 HR, 2 RBI, 2 BB, 1 K
Michael Cuddyer 1-6 with 1 double
Kirk Nieuwenhuis 1-3 with 2 K
Kevin Plawecki 0-3 with 1 K
Matt Reynolds 0-0
Bench Combined 3-15 (.200 BA) with 2 BB (.294 OBP), 1 double, 1 HR (.467 slugging), 2 RBI, and 4 K
In case the Mets make a roster change, here’s Uribe’s numbers:
Juan Uribe 2-6 with 1 double, 2 RBI, 2 K
Overall, the Mets have not hit Cueto well. However, prior to Cueto being a Royal no one did. Just last year, Cueto limited batters to a triple slash line of .195/.261/.313. So, where’s the discrepancy in all this? Where’s the hope for Mets fans tomorrow? It’s that Cueto’s numbers are actually no fluke at all. In his career, as the year progresses, he tired and gets hit harder:
March/April .208/.269/.349
May .222/.282/.364
June .235/.298/.367
July .252/.324/.365
August .243/.305/.412
September/October .275/.335/.426
Given these numbers, it’s clear that Cueto can be hit . . . hard. This gives the Mets a Game One advantage. When the goal is to split in Kansas City, the Mets need to utilize this advantage. I think they can and will.
In June if you told Mets fans Ben Zobrist would be traded, and his new team would make the World Series, they would’ve been excited. At one point, it seemed a foregone conclusion Zobrist would be a Met. Thankfully, that deal fell apart, and the Mets made better trades that provided the Mets with better talent and depth.
In any event, Zobrist became a Royal for a hefty price. It’s no surprise the Royals were going for it after losing the World Series last year by 90 feet. Since this trade, Zobrist has played LF and 2B for the Royals. As a Royal, he has hit .284/.364/.453. These are good numbers, but the Mets were better off without Zobrist.
If he played second base, he would have surplanted Daniel Murphy at second base. That would’ve mean no #Murphtober, and quite possibly, the Mets lose the NLDS.
If the Mets moved him to LF, that probably would’ve meant no Yoenis Cespedes. Cespedes was an immediate spark plug after the trade. He was so good early on, there was talk of him becoming the NL MVP. The Mets went on 37-22 after the trade, which is a .627 winning percentage or a 102-60 pace.
Zobrist in LF also would’ve meant no Michael Conforto. He made the jump from A ball to the majors. He hit .270/.335/.506. He was much better than advertised defensively. He had good range with a strong, accurate arm. He’s got a bit of the clutch gene homering in his first postseason game off of Zack Greinke.
Also, you don’t know what the A’s were asking for Zobrist. Some of the other deals that took place may not have happened. One of the strengths of the Mets have bee a deep bench giving Terry Collins the ability to platoon.
There was a time if Mets fans had heard Zobrist was traded in season and helped his new team into the World Series, they would’ve been giddy. It was largely assumed he would wind up with the Mets. He didn’t.
Because of that, both the Mets and the Royals made the World Series.
In Game One of the NLCS, a comebacker hit Matt Harvey in the right arm. The ball was said to have “dented” Harvey’s triceps putting his next start into question. When questioned about it, Harvey gave a Narrator type of response:
"I'm not a trainer. I'm not Harvey's arm." That's David Wright's medical assessment of Matt Harvey for Game 5
— Mike Vorkunov (@MikeVorkunov) October 19, 2015
“I’m not Harvey’s arm” is what the Narrator would say. It reminded me of Jack’s writings found in the Paper Street House. I could see the Narraor reading something entitled “I am Harvey’s Dented Tricep.” The next line would be something along the lines of “I injure Harvey and I ruin his career.”
For all we know, Harvey is Tyler Durden. If I’m right that makes Bartolo Colon Robert Paulson. It would also make Noah Syndergaard Angel Face. When Colon gets knocked out early in the game getting roughed up, I could see Thor leading the pitching staff in a “His name is Bartolo Colon” chant.
It could also explain some of Harvey’s behavior. When he’s talking about innings limits and his career, he’s being the narrator. When he’s complaining about the six man rotation, he’s Tyler Durden. The Tyler Durden side of his wants to throw acid all over his career screaming, “First you have to bear down, first you have to know, not fear, know that someday your career is going to be over.”
This Harvey, err Durden, wants to pitch three times in the World Series. He wants to unleash his pitching repertoire causing mayhem and confusion on the Royals bench. The Royals won’t be talented or uniquely talented; they’ll all be strikeout victims. I can see the Royals saying they haven’t been struck out that way since grade school.
Pretty clever, huh? Good I’ll keep it up then.
He’s going to stand on the mound in Game 1 of the World Series and say, “I want you to hit me as hard as you can.” When he strikes them out, he’ll lecture them saying, “Listen to me! You have to consider the possibility that God does not like you, never wanted you, and in all probability he HATES you.” He’ll strike them out because they’re too young, too fat, too old.
At the end of the games, all stories will be “I am Harvey’s Game One victory.”
In a postseason where the Mets have been slaying demons, there is one Phillie left. In the NLDS, the Mets dispatched with Jimmy Rollins and the dirty and cowardly Chase Utley. There is one member of that 2007-2008 Phillies team left: Ryan Madson. He may not garner the same reaction as Utley and Rollins, but he was still a large part of those Phillies teams.
Just like 2008, Madson is a key set-up man on the Royals. After not appearing on a major league roster for four years, he resurfaced and had his typically good season. He went 1-2 with a 2.13 ERA, 0.963 WHIP, and a 8.2 K/9. This postseason he’s been hittable in the 5.1 innings he’s pitched. He’s got a 2.25 WHIP and a 8.44 ERA.
He’s gone from major strength to liability. It may just be a short sample size. It may be his four year layoff out of the major leagues. Hopefully, it’s the latter because he’s been good against the Mets. In 61 games (1 start), he has a 2.87 ERA with a 1.149 WHIP and a 7.6 K/9.
I’m not sure all of that matters. The only Mets remaining from that time are David Wright and Daniel Murphy, who is playing on a different level. With that said, it probably matters to the fans more. And yes, I care. I want that World Series. I don’t like the idea of another 2007-2008 Phillie standing in the way.
It’s time for those Phillies to go away for good.
Before the playoffs began, my Dad, brother, and I went in together and got three World Series tickets. It was more than we wanted to spend, but it is theWorld Series. This opportunity does not come often for Mets fans.
I was so excited after the NLCS, I though about getting more tickets. They are quite expensive. If you want to go with a friend, it’ll cost you $650.00 to get a seat (plus fees). Seeing that it made me consider going to Kauffman Stadium for the World Series.
If you want to go to Kansas City, it’ll cost you only $360.00 per seat (plus fees) for Game 1. It’s much cheaper, but here’s the problem. You have to get there. The cheapest flight will cost you $1,027, so you’re going to have to drive. The trip will take about 20 hours (with stops). Realistically, you’re going to have to stay overnight.
If you leave Monday and stay the night after Game 2, the hotel will cost $39 per night or $117 total (plus fees). Dividing between two people, that’s $58.50 per person. While you’re there, you might want to go to another game. On Stubhub, an additional ticket will cost $359.00 per seat. All said and done, it will cost you $777.50 to attend two games in Kansas City.
Therefore, it would only cost you an additional $127.50 to go to two games in Kansas City. While you’re there, you can also have some great BBQ and go to the Negro League Baseball Museum ($10.00 admission). I know $777.50 is s lot of money, but if you’re shelling out this much money, what’s the extra $127.50.
If I could get the time off and didn’t have a son I couldn’t stay a night away from, I’d be making the reservations now myself. The only downside I see is you won’t be amongst Mets fans.
Sandy Alderson became the Mets GM prior to the 2011 season. He knew a change at second base was needed. He jettisoned Mets fans Public Enemy No. 1, Luis Castillo, and used a Rule 5 pick on Brad Emaus, who would be named the Opening Day starting second baseman.
Emaus was not good. He only hit .162/.262/.162 in 14 games. To Alderson’s credit, he cut bait when Emaus showed he couldn’t hack it. The other players that got playing time at secon that year was Justin Turner and Chin-lung Hu. That year Daniel Murphy was not part of the second base rotation. He did play 109 games that year, mostly at first, due to a season ending ankle injury to Ike Davis.
The next season, despite a decent year from Turner, the Mets went with Murphy as the starting second baseman. They have ever since. Despite a multitude of trade rumors (can be fully searched here), the Mets never traded Murphy. Despite not being an “Alderson player,” the Mets have kept him. Seemingly, they’ve grown to appreciate what he can provide to a team.
The Mets struck out on their top second base choice, and they have stuck by Murphy. He’s rewarded them with this offseason. In the end, it’s funny to think none of this would’ve been possible if Brad Emaus played better.
Sometimes it’s better to go with your second option.
With the Mets playing in Kansas City to begin the World Series, they will have to choose a player to DH. There are a number of options.
Best Defensive Lineup
Late in games this postseason, the Mets have inserted Juan Lagares into the game for defensive purposes. This has moved Yoenis Cespedes to left and Michael Conforto to the bench.
With a spacious Kaufman Stadium outfield, the Mets could start the game with this defensive alignment and move Conforto to DH. This becomes more of an option because Lagares is having a good postseason. It’s a way to maximize the defense while getting Conforto’s bat into the game.
Left-handed Bats
The Royals have all right handed starters. If past history is any indication, Terry Collins will try to get as many lefties in the lineup as possible.
That would eliminate the Lagares option but keep Conforto in the lineup. The lefties on the bench now are Kelly Johnson and Kirk Nieuwenhuis. Given the choice for a first choice off the bench, Collins has consistently gone for Johnson over Nieuwenhuis. Neither has much experience against presumptive Game One starter Johnny Cueto (Johnson 1-6; Nieuwenhuis 1-3).
In this circumstance, Collins would go with Johnson, who is his only backup infielder with major league experience. If something happens, Matt Reynolds will be playing his first career game in the World Series.
Michael Cuddyer
Unlike most of the Mets roster, Michael Cuddyer has played extensively in the AL. However, despite playing 10 years in the AL, he’s only played 37 games at DH.
As a DH, he has hit .265/.344/.402. This is similar to his career numbers of .277/.344/.461. At Kaufman Stadium, he’s hitting .281/.371/.531. One note of caution there is that was against some terrible Royals teams. The Mets are not facing a terrible Royals team in the World Series.
Overall, he’s waited the longest of all the Mets position players to play in his first World Series. I’m sure he wants to contribute and may have a big hit in him. Sometimes that makes a dangerous player.
My Pick
At the end of the day, I want the best team out there. In my opinion, that is Lagares in CF and Conforto at DH. The Royals put a lot of balls in play, so the Mets will need an OF that covers a lot ground.
You’ve been an awful husband/boyfriend/son since the playoffs started. You’ve been half paying attention to everything because your sole focus has been the Mets. Most women will probably say you’re always half listening.
In any event, you didn’t go out two weeks ago because of the NLDS. You didn’t go out last weekend because of the NLCS. You’re not going to go out next weekend because of the World Series. Even worse that’s Halloween weekend. You’re now monopolizing a huge weekend with the Mets. Guess what? There’s nothing going on tonight.
Your significant other deserves a huge night out. She deserves flowers and a nice dinner. She deserves to be wined and dined. She’s been a good sport, and she needs to be rewarded. Treat her like a lady. Remind her why you love her and why she’s special to you. She deserves that much.
If you’ve been taking your significant other out during the playoffs, this doesn’t apply to you. In fact, I’m not sure you’re a real Mets fan. Moreover, I’m not sure I want to know you.
Overall, be a gentleman tonight. It’ll go a long way tomorrow when you park yourself in front of the TV tomorrow and try to watch a full day of football.
The company line on why Eric Young, Jr. was not on the postseason roster was because it was impractical to carry a pinch runner in the National League. Well, it’s now the World Series, and the Royals have homefield, so it is time to readdress the issue.
If you watched last night‘s game, you could see the importance of a pinch runner in an American League park. Dalton Pompey pinch ran for Russell Martin last night and got himself to third with no outs. He represented the tying run. It’s still incredible the Blue Jays couldn’t knock him in.
On the flip side is Terrance Gore. He should be 5/5 in stolen base attempts in the postseason. On face value, the Royals use him judiciously. They pick their spots. However, at the end of the day, he’s only appeared in eight games and scored two runs. This shows pinch runners can be valuable, but their value is limited to the hitters behind him knocking him in.
Based upon his history with the Mets, EY could be a valuable pinch runner. If these games get tight late, his speed would be of enormous value, especially against a very good Royals bullpen. Still, I think I would have to pass.
First, the Mets need Kirk Nieuwenhuis now more than ever with Yoenis Cespedes‘ shoulder injury. Nieuwenhuis is the only OF on the team who can play all three OF spots well. Plus, Nieuwenhuis is a better baseball player. He’s a better defender and a better hitter. While he doesn’t have Young’s speed, he certainly has enough to be an effective base runner.
That would mean if the Mets want to add Young, they need to go down to 10 pitchers. It’s something the team has previously considered (off of memory, can’t find a supporting link). It’s an intriguing idea with the length the starters are giving and how effective Bartolo Colon has been. Other than the big three in the back of the pen and Colon, here’s how many appearances and innings the other relievers have:
- Jon Niese – 2 appearances, 0.2 IP
- Hansel Robles – 1 appearance, 1.0 IP
- Erik Goeddel* – 1 appearance, 0 IP
- Sean Gilmartin* – 0 appearances
Note: Gilmartin replaced Goeddel on the NLCS roster.
Overall, the Mets have not needed to go deep into the bullpen. However, I would still be loathe to reduce the number of available pitchers. First, Steven Matz is not going deep into games. If this continues and one other starter falters, the Mets bullpen is a disaster for the rest of the World Series. Second, it’s not necessary.
Salvador Perez used to be elite in throwing out runners. Just last year he threw out 42% of would be base stealers. That was tops in the AL. That percentage has dipped to 31%. In this postseason, baserunners have been successful six of seven tries against Perez, including three in the ninth inning last night.
The long story, short is you can run on Perez. You just need to pick your spots. Accordingly, you don’t need to deplete a bigger team need. With the way the Mets ran in the NLCS, they don’t need a super pinch runner. They just need to continue what they’re doing.
That means unfortunately they don’t have a need for EY in the World Series roster.