The Mets are reported to have interest in Ben Zobrist along with the rest of baseball. Let’s get one thing out of the way. Ben Zobrist is a better player than Daniel Murphy.
Zobrist hit .276/.359/.450 last year. For his career, he’s a .265/.355/.431 hitter. He wasn’t good at second last year. His UZR was a -6.7. However, last year was a blip. He’s averaged a 3.3 UZR, which would make him slightly above average at the position. Last year, his WAR was 1.9. His career WAR is 38.5.
For his part, Murphy hit .281/.322/.449 last year, and he’s hit .288/.331/.424 for his career. His UZR at second last year was -1.3, his best ever at second (for a full season). His average UZR is -4, which means he’s a bad fielder. Last year, his WAR was 1.4, and his career WAR is 12.5.
By any measure, Zobrist is a better player than Murphy. Zobrist has more versatility than Murphy as he can play some short and can play the OF. So why would I rather pay Murphy $48 million over four years than pay Zobrist $42 million over three years? Murphy is five years younger and in the prime of his career.The Murphy/Zobrist decision is an examination of paying players for past over future performance.
Zobrist is old and in decline. Here’s his WAR over the last five years:
- 2011 – 8.7
- 2012 – 5.7
- 2013 – 5.0
- 2014 – 4.9
- 2015 – 1.9
Here’s his UZR at second base the last five years:
- 2011 – 6.6
- 2012 – (3.1)
- 2013 – 10.0
- 2014 – 4.7
- 2015 – (6.7)
If you want to tell me Zobrist will be better than Murphy next year, I can’t argue. But what about 2017? What about 2018? With all the teams interested, he could get a four year contract. Do you think a 40 year old Zobrist will be better than a 35 year old Murphy?
Just remember the Mets signed a 35 year old Michael Cuddyer last year, and now they have a $12.5 million bench player. This is the danger you face when you sign Zobrist.
Murphy is the safer bet going forward.
Today is the deadline for Daniel Murphy to accept or reject the $15.8 million qualifying offer. While I anticipate he will reject it, the possibility remains that he could accept it:
https://twitter.com/jareddiamond/status/665195238332452864
Sooner or later, the Mets will have to give the second base job to Dilson Herrera. He’s got the potential to be an All Star one day. He hit .327/.387/.511 in AAA this year. He might not have been ready when he was called up this year, but he’s only 21 years old. He may need another year to be ready. Another year of Murphy helps that.
This will be David Wright‘s first full season after his spinal stenosis diagnosis. We will find out how much he can play. If he’s limited in how much he can play, Murphy has shown he’s more than capable of playing at third for a stretch. It’s possible the Mets could let Wright go on the DL to rest permitting Murphy to play third and get Herrera comes time at second to see if he’s ready. Having Murphy around another year is a nice insurance policy.
It would also give Murphy more time to work with Kevin Long. I’m not expecting Murphy to repeat Murphtober, but it should be noted he had the most homeruns he’s ever had. He did this while hitting 38 doubles, the second highest he’s ever had. It was the highest slugging percentage he’s ever had over a full year. Another year with the Mets should let us know if it was a career year or something else.
I can understand not wanting Murphy on a multi-year deal. He’s still not good defensively at second. You might be paying him for postseason performance rather than what he has been his whole career. However, on a one year deal? It makes too much sense.
I’m not worried about it “ruining” the Mets offseason plans. The bullpen is in good shape. The rotation should be better with a full year of Steven Matz, no Bartolo Colon, and Zack Wheeler scheduled to return. The shortstop options out there aren’t better than Wilmer Flores. The CF market is full of players who shouldn’t play in center. Therefore, Juan Lagares is probably their best option. So with that said, how does Murphy “ruin” their offseason?
It doesn’t. Murphy taking the qualifying offer is the Mets best case scenario. As Sandy Alderson stated himself, you only make the offer if you want the player back. Well, the offer was made. Hopefully, Murphy comes back for 2016.
Through everything that has happened with Ruben Tejada this postseason, one thing gets lost in the shuffle. He’s not a good SS and he’s starting to get expensive. With these things in mind, he’s not a lock to return in 2016:
Also, it doesn't sound as if Ruben Tejada is a slam dunk to be tendered a contract. Could be Matt Reynolds for that spot, competing for SS.
— Mike Puma (@NYPost_Mets) November 12, 2015
Tejada is expected to receive $2.5 million in arbitration. He cannot be a free agent until 2018. He may have poor range (-5.6 UZR), but he catches everything hit to him. He’s a career .255/.340/.323 hitter. Long story, short. He’s a major leaguer. Maybe not a great one, but a major leaguer nevertheless.
It also means he’s as asset. Yes, this is the second time he’s broken his right leg. I know he’s not what everyone imagined he would be when the other shortstop left in free agency. However, he’s a competent player who is not making that much money. Last time the Mets made a penny wise, pound foolish decision like this was Justin Turner, and we know how that worked out.
Tejada is about to turn 27, so you can argue he’s about to be entering the prime of his career. The Mets seem to be letting Daniel Murphy walk and installing Dilson Herrera at second. If Herrera isn’t ready, Wilmer Flores (the lesser of all evils at SS) would be the most likely candidate to play second. Except he can’t in that situation because the Mets non-tendered Tejada. Also, what happens if Flores repeats his early season SS struggles?
I’m sure the Mets will look to get someone to replace Tejada, but it’s slim pickings. Do you really want to see Jimmy Rollins or Alexei Ramirez there everyday? It’s one thing to bring them in and give them a chance, it’s another to have to rely upon them. This more than anything is the reason why Tejada is so important.
The Mets need to keep Tejada.
Well now that the Andrelton Simmons drama is over, you would think the idea of a Mets-Braves trade would go away. At least you would think it would go away after the Braves overreach in their asking price. It turns out the asking price was even worse than we all thought:
#Braves officials told #Mets it would take a young arm plus Conforto to do a deal. NYM never got back to Atl — as you would expect.
— Joel Sherman (@Joelsherman1) November 13, 2015
You would think that this would put an end to any idea that the Mets and Braves would enter into a trade for a everyday player. Nope because the Braves received Erick Aybar as part of the trade. Naturally, everyone sees the name and goes there’s a fit:
Now #Mets and #Braves are set up nicely for an Aybar for prospects type trade.
— Jim Bowden⚾️ (@JimBowdenGM) November 13, 2015
It’s at this point it should be noted Jim Bowden was a terrible GM in more ways than one. There’s a reason why he hasn’t had a front office job since 2009. If you didn’t have any reason to call his judgment into question, look no further than his idea that the Mets obtain Aybar.
Aybar is coming off a year where he hit .270/.301/.338. For his career, he is hitting .270/.316/.378. He will be 32 years old on Opening Day. He’s in the last year of his deal, and he’s owed $8.5 million. That’s a lot of money for a guy that’s not a good hitter. However, the Mets have a need for a defensive SS, so maybe you bite the bullet here. Aybar has won a Gold Glove.
Except, it was just the one, and it was five years ago. Now, he’s got horrible range. His UZR this past season was -7.1. If you want to argue that UZR can change from year to year, and he was much better in 2014, I agree. However, he was also a -6.6 in 2013. Essentially, in two of the last three years, his range is close to fall down left – fall down right.
Let’s put it another way, we all agree Wilmer Flores was good defensively last year. Well, at a -2.5 UZR, he had much better range than Aybar. As we saw after Ruben Tejada went down in the postseason, Flores was much better at SS. Gone were the wild throws and awkwardness in turning the double play.
Now, what is more likely? Is it more likely that Aybar suddenly rediscovers his range from five years ago at the age of 32, or is it more likely that the 24 year old Flores is improving at SS? Would you want to pay Aybar $8.5 million against Flores’ $500-600 k salary to find out? Is Aybar really worth $8 million more plus prospects? Isn’t Flores the better bet, especially with his 16 homeruns last year?
Look, if you’re not comfortable with Flores, I get it. However, that does not mean you make a bad trade for a bad player who plays a bad SS. The fact of the matter is there are no good shortstop options. You can stick with Flores and/or wait to get a veteran insurance policy on the cheap. You could also trade for a SS.
The trade route is fine as long as you’re not trading for Aybar because he’s no longer a good SS. I’d rather stick with Flores.
Rumor has it that the Mets offseason is being held up by Daniel Murphy. Apparently, the Mets are waiting to see if he accepts the qualifying offer. I doubt he will as an overwhelming majority of players reject the offer. Can you name the player(s) who have accepted the offer? Good luck!
The recent Andrelton Simmons trade rumors suggests again the Mets know there is a hole at shortstop.
Last year, Wilmer Flores showed he wasn’t an everyday shortstop. On top of that with Daniel Murphy likely departing, he may be needed at second if Dilson Herrera isn’t ready. On top of that, Ruben Tejada once again exhibited limited range for the position, and that is before taking into account his broken leg. You’d like to say Matt Reynolds is an option, but he regressed at the plate last year in a hitter’s league and park. Furthermore, he, like Flores, is someone who may not profile as a major league shortstop.
The Mets have two well regarded shortstop prospects with Gavin Cecchini and Ahmed Rosario. Both played in AA for the first time last year. While Michael Conforto made the jump from AA to the majors, it would be unfair to presume these two could. Conforto did something rare. Accordingly, it’s safe to assume Cecchini and Rosario are at least two to three years away from playing with the big league club.
The free agent market is thin at shortstop with the best option being a high priced player in decline for the past two years. Furthermore, the Mets unloaded their best trade pieces on rentals to go all-in last year. This begs the question, what do you do?
Well, there’s only one thing to do. You let the free agent market shake out. You look to take on one of the remaining shortstops on either a minor league deal or a cheap major league deal. I’m sure a player like Jimmy Rollins is looking for one last chance to win a World Series. Alexei Ramirez may want a one year deal to re-establish his value.
No, I’m not excited about these players either. However, it’s the reality of the Mets situation. Much like they wanted to catch lightning in a bottle with Flores last year, they’re looking to do it again next year with Flores or whoever else it may be.
It’s difficult knowing the Mets real shortstops are two plus years away, but the team is ready to win now.
Last night, Jonah Keri broke the rumor that the Braves were discussing trading Andrelton Simmons to an NL West team. With him rumored to be on the block, and the Mets current SS situation, everyone wondered if the Mets would join the bidding.
Well, the Mets can join the bidding all they want. There’s no deal to be had for Simmons. To their credit, the Mets tried to trade for Simmons last season before the trade deadline. While the names of the players were not disclosed, the Mets labeled Simmons as “basically unreachable.” Well today, we found out why the Mets characterized Simmons as unreachable:
Braves seek to have one of mets big 4 starters included in a simmons deal. They have asked about matz in past. #simmons
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) November 12, 2015
There’s no way the Mets will trade one of their starting pitchers for Simmons. If the Mets do trade one of them, the names you’ll hear is Mike Trout, Giancarlo Stanton, or Andrew MCutchen. Does anyone think those teams will be trading those players? That’s exactly why the Mets won’t trade their starting pitchers.
Now, I could create a realistic trade without the Mets starters, but that would involve the Mets taking on Michael Bourn‘s $14 million salary. Do you really see that happening? Neither do I. I could analyze whether it’s a good idea or not to take on Simmons, but it’s a moot point. Further, the addition of more interested teams will not lessen the Braves demands.
The Mets are not getting Andrelton Simmons.
One of the Mets biggest mistakes last year might have been passing on the opportunity to obtain Jung Ho Kang. The Rookie of the Year candidate hit .287/.355/.461 in 126 games at SS. His WAR was 4.0. His UZR was 1.6 making him an average SS with a good bat. Basically, he was what the Mets hoped Wilmer Flores would be.
The Mets may now have the opportunity to add a Korean player, who could help them in the bullpen. Seung-hwan Oh is coming to the United States next week in search of an offer to pitch in the majors next year. Unlike Kang, Oh is a free agent so the team interested in him does not have to pay a posting fee to obtain his rights. Even with success in the Korean and Japanese leagues, the 33 year old closer is an unknown commodity. An unknown commodity who has recorded a 1.81 ERA and 10.7 K/9 in 11 professional seasons.
We don’t know how those stats translate to the majors. What we do know is his stuff. He has what he calls a “Stone Fastball” which has a velocity between 92-94 MPH. He can add a little to it to get it up to 97 MPH. He also has a slider that he deviates the speeds between 80-89 MPH. He also has a curveball he throws in the 70s.
He has the type of arsenal that should work well in the majors. Overall, he’s an unknown commodity who carries the burden of having had Tommy John surgery in 2001 and a second elbow surgery in 2010. His last contract earned him $4.15 million per season in Japan. If he asked for a similar contract, he would cost about half of what the elite set-up options cost in this market.
For what it’s worth, here’s some video of him pitching in Japan:
He certainly looks like he has the stuff to pitch in the majors. He’s a risk, but he’s got swagger. As stated above, he calls his fastball the “Stone Fastball.” He goes by the nickname “The Final Boss.” He at least sounds like the type of player and personality that could succeed in New York.
This Mets bullpen may just need one final boss. Oh is worth the risk.
Unsurprisingly, the Mets have interest in both Darren O’Day and Joakim Soria. If you’re looking for an elite setup guy, you’re going to be interested in both players.
Soria is now three years removed from Tommy John surgery. In the four seasons prior to the one he was injured, Soria was an elite closer recording 132 saves with a 2.03 ERA and a 0.988 WHIP. He got injured, and he became a different player. Still a good closer/reliever, but not an elite closer.
After coming back from surgery, he went to Texas where he recorded 17 saves with a 3.16 ERA and a 1.043 WHIP in two years. He then signed with the Tigers, who seem desperate for relief help every year (sound familiar?). In two years, he recorded 24 saves with a 3.29 ERA and s 1.115 WHIP. When he was traded to the Pirates, he was terrific in the bullpen because he’s a good pitcher and everyone is terrific in the Pirates bullpen. In 29 games he had a 2.03 ERA with a 1.163 WHIP.
With the Mets seeking an eighth inning reliever, Soria would be an upgrade over Addison Reed, who has a career 4.01 ERA and a 1.261 career WHIP. Soria is a huge upgrade. Soria is expected to receive a 2 year $14 million contract or $7 million per season. Reed is slated to receive $5.7 million in arbitration. Soria would be worth the $1.3 million increase.
O’Day appears like he will command a 3 year $21 million contract or $7 million per year. While I think the $7 million per year on both O’Day and Soria are fair estimates, the increased interest may bump those numbers up to around $8 million per season.
Right now, the Mets projected payroll is around $92 million with about $18 million left in the budget. Would it be wise to blow almost all of it on relievers? I think so. The current free agent market lacks the elite second base, shortstop, or center fielders who would improve the Mets offense. The Mets don’t seem inclined to bring back Daniel Murphy.
The best solution might be to create an absolute shut down pitching staff. Going from the Mets elite starters to O’Day-Soria-Jeurys Familia will hold up any lead the Mets can muster. Also, keep in mind, the Mets will have full years from David Wright, Michael Conforto, and Travis d’Arnaud, which should offset the losses of Murphy and Yoenis Cespedes.
The Mets best approach to this offseason might be to create a shutdown bullpen to match their starting pitching. Bring on both O’Day and Soria.
When I was reviewing the 2016 Hall of Fame ballot, one name was conspicuously missing: Carlos Delgado. I knew he retired in 2009 and was never able to play again. I figured it was an error. Nope. Somehow , Delgado only received 3.8% of the vote. How is that possible?
I’m not saying he’s a Hall of Famer. I’m saying it’s up for legitimate debate. Over his career, his 162 game averages were .280/.383/.546 with 38 homeruns and 120 RBIs. THAT’S HIS AVERAGE! Overall, he would finish with 473 homeruns and 1,512 RBIs in 17 years in the big leagues. Look, I know he played in an offensive era, but those numbers are other worldly. I don’t know why 96.2% of the voters couldn’t give him more consideration.
Maybe it’s because he fell one healthy season short of 500 homeruns. Every clean player with 500 homeruns has been elected to the Hall of Fame. Maybe it’s because he spent too much of his career in Canada. Gary Carter seemingly had the same problem, but he had one or two more signature moments with the Mets than Delgado did. Maybe if the Mets win the World Series in 2006 the voters would’ve looked at him differently.
What I do know is Delgado was a feared slugger. When the Mets obtained him in 2006, they went from a .500 club to contenders. Once Willie Randolph slotted him in that cleanup spot, the Mets took off, and Delgado was excelling in his first opportunity to play for a contender. In the 2006 postseason, he went off hitting .351/.442/.757 with three doubles, four homers and 11 RBIs.
I remember him struggling in the beginning of 2008 wondering if this was it for him. He only hit .248/.328/.455 in the first half, and I’m not even sure he was that good. With a .500 team that collapsed the prior year and in need of a spark, especially, with a fired manager, Delgado came in like a raging inferno. In the second half, he hit .303/.386/.606 with 21 homers. He willed the Mets into contention.
Sadly, his career and the stretch of good Mets baseball would end when Delgado needed hip surgery due to bone spurs and a torn labrum. Delgado did not get the chance to go out on his own terms. He deserved better than that much like he deserved more than the paltry 3.8% of the vote he received last year.
In any event, I’m happy Delgado came to the Mets. He retired as one of the top 3 first baseman in Mets history. He may belong to the Blue Jays, but he will always be a Met in my book. Hopefully, the Mets will induct him into the Mets Hall of Fame. It’s not the same as Cooperstown, but it’s something.
Unfortunately, Delgado will no longer be on the ballot. We all lose because of this. We lose because we can’t have intelligent debates over whether or not he belongs in Cooperstown. We lose because we can’t re-live his career highlights. We lose because a great player and a good man was slighted.
There are debates to be had on the players on the 2016 ballot. For the life of me, I can’t wrap my head around the fact that Carlos Delgado isn’t one of them.