Hot Stove
With Bob Geren leaving the Mets for the Dodgers, I’m sure there’s going to be a groundswell for the Mets to make Wally Backman a coach on the major league squad. Why?
First off, Backman has seemingly done a good job with the AAA team. He sends players up major league ready. He and Terry Collins have a great rapport. That type of synergy can only help the major league club. This is more important to the Mets than Backman on the bench or at third base.
Furthermore, Backman does not replace the role Geren fulfilled with the Mets. Geren was the stats based coach. Geren was also the coach who worked so well with the young catchers:
Geren a loss for the Mets. Worked extensively with the catchers, gave TC a different perspective in dugout.
— Marc Carig (@MarcCarig) December 2, 2015
Neither of those areas are within Backman’s forte. He’s a good minor league manager. It’s where he helps the Mets the most. The idea isn’t to reward him for this. The idea is to keep him where he’s best suited. The idea is to keep him where he best helps the organization.
If Backman wants to walk, let him. It’s not like there are other teams begging to bring him over to their organization. He didn’t get one interview for any of the managerial openings. He hasn’t been even mentioned as a possible option as a coach on another major league team.
Who should take his place? Previously, I’ve advocated for Juan Uribe, who was a leader on the team last year. However, I’m assuming he’s going to want to play another year. I’m sure there will be names floated from all across the Mets organization. Whoever it is, I hope that player can have the same positive impact had with the Mets.
More so, I hope Backman stays in Las Vegas.
First off, I should start by saying I find PEDs to be a blight on the game. I also don’t want those type of players on the Mets. With that said, I don’t run a team.
When you run a team, you only have one job, and that is to put together the best team possible. For starters, this means acquiring the best players you can and keeping them on the team for as long as possible. It also means protecting your assets. This includes players who have two steroids suspensions.
Take the suspensions and PEDs out of it for a second. Jenrry Mejia is a good relief pitcher. In 2014, after struggling as a starter, Mejia became the Mets closer. Mejia recorded 28 saves with a 2.72 ERA in 56 games. He struck out 9.6 per nine. In limited time last year, he had seven appearances allowing no earned runs in 7.1 innings.
In addition, Mejia is very affordable. His salary was $2.595 million last year. It’s not anticipated that he will receive a raise next year. This is where the steroid suspension comes into consideration:
Was off by one game yesterday: Jenrry Mejia officially has served 63 games of suspension. So he has 99 games remaining.
— Adam Rubin (@AdamRubinMedia) December 1, 2015
Mejia is gone for 99 games. At $2.6 million, Mejia will make approximately $16,000 per game. The Mets don’t have to pay him while he’s suspended meaning Mejia will lose $1.58 million in salary. Put another way, if Mejia doesn’t get suspended again, the Mets will only owe him about $1.0 million for 63 games.
If Mejia is good, he will help in the bullpen. If he’s not, the Mets could easily cut him. If he’s caught using steroids again, he’s gone from the game forever. The risk is all on Mejia, not the Mets. With that in mind, the Mets should bring him back no matter how much I don’t want to see him on the Mets next year. For what it’s worth, apparently the Mets seem to be coming around and will tender him a contract.
I don’t like him being a Met, but I also didn’t like Bartolo Colon on the team either. However, the Mets brought him aboard because they thought he could help the team. If that’s their thinking, they need to tender Mejia a contract.
I believe this even though I wish he was gone from the team.
For all the rhetoric and rumors about the Mets possibly shopping Matt Harvey this offseason, we discovered there are 217 million reasons why it’s a bad idea. The cost of elite starting pitching is high on the free agent market.
David Price got that huge contract because he’s an ace. For his career, he’s 104-56 with a 3.09 ERA, 3.19 FIP, and a 126 ERA+. His average season is 16-9 with 34 starts, 227 IP, and 216 K. He’s won a Cy Young, and he was second in the voting last year after he went 18-5 with a 2.45 ERA, 161 ERA+, and a 2.78 FIP. By any measure, he’s an ace, and he’s getting paid accordingly.
The Red Sox needed an ace, so they paid a lot to get him. Remember their prior ace, Jon Lester, was traded to the A’s before he signed a free agent deal with the Cubs. The Red Sox got Yoenis Cespedes in the deal, who they flipped for Rick Porcello. They gave him a four year $82.5 million contract extension. Last year, which was year one of the deal, Porcello was 9-15 with a 4.92 ERA, 87 ERA+, and a 4.17 FIP. Not very good.
Essentially, the Red Sox turned their ace into a below league average pitcher. This happened because they got too cute. They really liked their chances to re-sign Lester so they traded him to bring another MLB player back. They should’ve just looked to lock up Lester, who reviewed a 6 year $155 million deal. The Cubs outbid the Red Sox by $22 million. The Red Sox 6 year $22 million offer was much higher than their previous four year $70 million offer before the Cespedes trade.
The end result was the Red Sox getting outbid for Lester, trading away the player they reviewed for Lester, and overpaying the pitcher they received for that player. Effectively, the Red Sox traded Lester for Porcello. It’s why they had to give such a huge contract to Price. They needed a top of the rotation starter. It’s a warning for the Mets.
Harvey is an ace. In his young career, he has a 144 ERA+ and a 2.65 FIP. Both numbers are better than Price, who just received $217 million. Also, Price has been noted as a poor postseason performer. After the World Series, we knew Harvey could rise to the challenge and be dominant when the Mets need him most.
This is not a guy you trade. Not even if he won’t work out a contract extension with you now. You don’t trade an ace like this because the return may very well become an overpaid Porcello. That’s even worse for the Mets because they don’t have the Red Sox financial wherewithal to overcome such a big mistake.
There may come a time Harvey leaves the Mets. That time better come when it’s clear the Mets can’t re-sign him and have no hopes of winning anything. I doubt that’ll be the case with this young rotation.
Harvey needs to stay because the price of his departure would be too high.
Early this offseason, the Mets seemed to make Ben Zobrist and Darren O’Day as their primary free agent targets. Zobrist is now priced out of the Mets price range. O’Day isn’t linked to the Mets anymore. Sure, the Mets could still get either, neither, or both, but it looks more probable they won’t land either. It’s now time for Plan B.
Right now, we’re not quite sure what that looks like. Adam Rubin suggests it’s Daniel Murphy (or another middle infielder). Plan C would then be to get a centerfielder. Ken Davidoff disagrees slightly saying the Mets would go straight to looking to acquire a centerfielder. Overall, I’m positive the Mets know what their Plan B is even if we can all disagree on what it is.
Here’s the problem with Plan B. Zobrist and O’Day are seemingly everyone’s Plan A on the free agent market. Once they sign, everyone moves onto Plan B. With the increase in suitors for those players the price tag gets driven up again. That’s why the Mets should look to their Plan B and act quickly.
It’s what the Tigers did when they signed Jordan Zimmermann to a five year $110 million contract. He was projected to receive a six year $126 million contract. By acting quickly, the Tigers saved both on years and total value of the contract. The real potentially looks even better now that David Price has received a seven year $217 million contract. The prices for starting pitching will only go higher. It won’t for the Tigers because they acted quickly and locked up Zimmermann.
Hopefully, Murphy is the Mets Plan B. We know he wants to return. It was Murphy, not the Mets, who wanted to work out a contract extension. If Murphy wants to remain in New York, any chance at retaining him on a hometown discount exists up until the point Zobrist signs. Then all the teams that didn’t sign Zobrist will at least kick the doors Murphy. At that point the price for Murphy may escalate.
The Mets should act before that happens. As we saw with Zimmermann, striking at the right time may get you a discount . Waiting may cost the Mets either more money or the ability to acquire Murphy. With Zobrist still out there, the Mets should move on from a player that will not fit into their budget.
It’s time to sign Murphy before Zobrist signs elsewhere.
On the heels of the Tigers signing Jordan Zimermann, the team announced they are looking to improve the club regardless of the cost.
Naturally, I thought that would include Yoenis Cespedes. He hit .293/.323/.506 with 18 homeruns and 61 RBIs in 102 games for them last year. His play in LF was good enough to win him the Gold Glove. Assuming the team acquired Cameron Maybin to play center, they need a LF. Given his play with them last year coupled with his run with the Mets, you would think the Tigers would be hot after him.
Keep in mind, they apparently sought so highly of him, they would only trade him for a potential future ace. They were rumored to want to re-sign him if they couldn’t trade him. Arguably, Cespedes is the top corner outfielder on the market. Why aren’t any of his former teams interested in him? It’s stupefying.
I used to believe each time Cespedes was traded, he was being moved for a need and for a good player/prospect. At first, I dismissed the typical Boston smearing of one of their players out the door. Maybe there was more to it than we originally believed. While Cespedes had a great run, he showed a lot of quit and an alarming lack of hustle.
Cespedes has played for four teams in two years, and he’s probably on his way to playing for a fifth. There’s got to be a reason. I’ll always appreciate what he did for the Mets, but it appears the Mets are making the right decision letting him go.
Everyone else did.
With every team seemingly interested in Ben Zobrist, it appears the almost 35 year old is going to get a four year deal. Good for him.
The good news is that the Mets have no interest in giving him a four year deal. It’s the prudent move especially when you consider he’s in the midst of a four year decline. Based upon Adam Rubin’s article, the Mets may now turn to either Daniel Murphy or Asdrubal Cabrera to play second and occasionally spell David Wright at third base. I’ve written enough about Murphy, but it’s the first time I’ve seen the Mets linked to Cabrera.
For starters, Cabrera is not the hitter Zobrist or Murphy is. Last year, Cabrera hit .265/.315/.430 with 15 homeruns and 58 RBIs. For his career, he’s a .267/.329/.412 hitter, who averages 15 homeruns and 75 RBIs a year. He’s been good for an OPS+ of 104 meaning he’s a league average hitter. Overall, his career averages are skewed by his career year in 2011 when he hit .273/.332/.460 with 25 homeruns and 92 RBIs. This was also before his getting busted for steroids.
As we’ve seen with the Mets, the steroids issue won’t preclude them from signing Cabrera. Assuming it’s behind him, his .265/.315/.430 batting line would be an upgrade over an internal option like Wilmer Flores and his .263/.295/.408 batting line with an OPS+ of 95.
That’s where Cabrera becomes a little more interesting. Over the course of his career, he’s been a SS. However, he’s been a bad one. His UZR last year at short was -6.0, which was his best defensive year in five years. Over his career, he’s averaged a -6.2 UZR. Plain and simple, he’s a bad SS. In fact, he’s worse than Flores. At second and third, he’s had limited time, but he’s shown to be nothing more than average.
Ultimately, the prudence of signing Cabrera comes down to the contract. On a one year deal, he makes a lot of sense. As a replacement for Murphy’s bat, the signing doesn’t make sense no matter how good the terms of the deal are. Given the state of the free agent market, I’m not sure it’s wise to go after Cabrera and a centerfielder. As suggested by Ken Davidoff, the Mets will turn to center if they can’t sign Zobrist.
At this point, the best move might just be signing their young pitchers to extensions. The free agent market is poor, and the pitching is the Mets path to success. With that said, the Mets better kick them up.
At this point, I don’t know if any fan can honestly tell you what the Mets will do this offseason. I wouldn’t be surprised if they make no major additions. If they don’t, the Mets should still be favorites to repeat as NL East Champions. The main reason is an already weak NL East keeps getting worse.
The Braves major offseason addition was to re-sign A.J. Pierzynski. Other than that, they traded away their young SS Andrelton Simmons. They’re threatening to do the same with Freddie Freeman.
The Phillies have made no major moves, and do not appear to be doing so. Sure, they may have cleaned up the front office, but that will not have any impact upon their 2016 season.
The Marlins brought in a very average manager in Don Mattingly, and then immediately threatened to get rid of anyone if any value. Whether it’s Jose Fernandez and his hoodies or Marcel Ozuna and his accumulation of service time, the they’re looking to get rid of anyone not named Giancarlo Stanton or Ichiro Suzuki.
Then there are the Nationals, who just lost Jordan Zimmermann in free agency. I’m not sure how they replace him with their payroll issues. Essentially, they’re relying on Anthony Rendon being healthy, and the switch from Matt Williams to Dusty Baker vastly improving a team losing its CF and SS. It’s possible they will be better, but that’s a lot to ask considering Bryce Harper was the MVP, and Max Scherzer had a Cy Young caliber season.
The Mets have holes, but they return a young rotation poised to be deeper and better. They’ll presumably have a full year of Travis d’Arnaud, Michael Conforto, and David Wright. At the end of the day, it just might be enough offense to offset the losses of Yoenis Cespedes and Daniel Murphy. Ultimately, it may not matter with the NL East regressing.
The Mets need to just play to their potential to repeat in the NL East for the first time in their history.
Believe it or not, the Mets have actually made two moves this offseason. Both were minor league deals. The first was to utility man Ty Kelly. The second was to Stolmy Pimentel. How will they fare? Who knows?
That’s the thing. You never quite know what to expect when you bring a player in on a minor league deal. Sometimes it’s a veteran just looking for one last shot. It can be a young player just looking to get an opportunity in another organization. Ultimately, these are players that just want a job, and they’re going to give it everything they have because if they don’t, their career might be over.
Mets fans and the organization need not look any further than R.A. Dickey. When Dickey signed the deal he was coming off a then career year that him have a 4.62 ERA and 1.617 WHIP in 35 games (only one start). There was no reason to believe the signing would amount to anything more than minor league depth even if knuckleballers tend to figure things out later than more “conventional” starting pitchers. He came to it even later as an adjustment because he was born without a UCL.
Well, you know the rest. He went 39-28 as a Met with a 2.95 ERA and a 1.150 WHIP. In 2012, he was an All Star and won the Cy Young Award going 20-6 with a 2.73 ERA and a 1.053 WHIP. Because of that year, and the fact the Mets still had him under contract for another year, the Mets made perhaps the best trade in franchise history acquiring Travis d’Arnaud and Noah Syndergaard along with Wuilmer Becerra and John Buck.
Speaking of John Buck, he would be traded by the Mets the following year along with Marlon Byrd. Byrd was also signed to a minor league deal. When these two were traded together, the Mets acquired Vic Black and Dilson Herrera. Black was effective did the Mets out of the bullpen for a year and a half before he was injured. Herrera is the second baseman of the future.
Now, there are a million minor league deals that don’t amount to anything. However, those players are released in Spring Training or spend the year in the minors. You don’t spend much money to acquire them, so it’s not a big deal. This happens in the vast majority of signings.
Still, there are always needles like Dickey and Byrd in the free agent haystack. If you’re able to find them you can turn your franchise around. Now, it’s not likely that either Kelly or Pimentel will make that type of contribution. If they make any positive contribution, the signing is a homerun because nothing is really expected from them. The bar for success is very low, but the sky’s the limit.
It’s why I love minor league deals.
As long as Carlos Gonzalez remains a Rockie, there will rumors and suggestions that he will be a Met. It was the same with his former teammate Troy Tulowitzki. Tulo became a Blue Jay, which means we have to double down on the CarGo silliness:
ESPN's Jim Bowden pitches #Rockies trading CarGo to #Mets for RHP Zach Wheeler and OF prospect Brandon Nimmo: https://t.co/Ph8YihzWkR
— Patrick Saunders (@psaundersdp) November 23, 2015
I’m not going to address whether they’re good deals for the Mets (they’re not). Instead, I’m going to ask why? Why are we going through this again? The Mets are set at the corner OF spots, and CarGo is a RF.
CarGo played 151 games in the field this year. All were in RF. He hasn’t played CF since 2011. The reason is probably because he’s just a average RF. His UZR last year was -1.7. His average UZR IS 0.8 per season. If he’s just average in RF, why do we believe he will be average or better in CF?
Furthermore, he’s not an offensive upgrade. Last year, CarGo hit .271/.325/.540 with 40 homeruns. It was a Coors Field creation. He hit .299/.355/.617 with 24 homeruns at home. On the road, he hit .253/.294/.464 with 16 homeruns. That remains true for his entire career. He’s a lifetime .290/.347/.524 hitter. He has hit .324/.382/.604 at home and .255/.310/.441 in the road.
This isn’t an upgrade over either Curtis Granderson or Michael Conforto. He’s not even an upgrade over Juan Lagares. Lagares is a career .261/.297/.364 who plays Gold Glove defense. Away from Coors, CarGo hits .255/.310/.441 and still brings his average defense with him. Better yet, CarGo has hit .115/.207/.250 at Citi Field.
Throw in the fact that he’s due $37 million over the next two years and you’d have to give up players to get him, the question should be why you anyone want him? You’re essentially getting a slightly below average hitter who is average defensively. Trades like that ruin teams. Think about it. If CarGo was that good, why would the Rockies be shopping him? Also, why haven’t there been any takers?
As the Mets have done in the past, they should just not trade for CarGo.
No matter how you slice and dice it, the Mets will have to replace Daniel Murphy. The Mets could stay in-house with Dilson Herrera. They could sign a free agent like Ben Zobrist. They could look to make a trade. In the year after the World Series, why not just go for it?
If you want to go for it, the player you want is Robinson Cano, who reportedly wants to leave Seattle and come back to New York. Of course, he does even if the news didn’t come from him. The Mariners are a mess. Their coaching staff ripped him on the way out the door. Safeco Field is a nightmare for hitters much in the same way Citi Field used to be. I suspect Cano meant he wanted to go to the Yankees, but who knows, maybe he’ll accept a trade to the Mets.
He can be teammates again with Curtis Granderson, who seems from afar to be a terrific teammate. He can be reunited with Kevin Long. Between that and a move out of Safeco, he may get back to or close to the statistics he used to have. He will be back in a city that he was comfortable playing. It begs the question, do you want Cano?
First off, that contract is a nightmare. He’s due $24 million each year for the next eight years. This contract carries forward into his age 40 season. He’s been accused of being a lazy player, even if the accusation was unfair. He’s been recently described as a cancer in the clubhouse. Last year, he hit .288/.334/.446. It was easily his worst season. It just so happened that this occurred when Cano may be at the end of his prime.
However, I think a return to New York to a contending team would rejuvenate his career. Cano is a career .307/.356/.494 hitter. He is an average second baseman (-0.4 average UZR per season). He still hit 21 home runs last year despite playing at Safeco. Overall, he’s been an effective hitter there, even if he was a much better hitter while with the Yankees. He’s the best second base option out there. He may still be the best second baseman in the game. He is the best second baseman available either free agency or trade. At one time the Mets were interested in signing him.
Ultimately, we know the real reason this is unrealistic. Money. Cano would not only eat up practically all of the Mets remaining budget (or put them over budget), he would also eliminate payroll flexibility. Remember, Sandy Alderson doesn’t give out second generation contracts like this. This is what makes Cano unrealistic before we even get an idea of the Mariners ask.
So while Cano would be a fit, there is no way the Mets would pursue trading for him.