Jacob deGrom

Big Game Pitcher

Those 90’s Braves teams were built on pitching. By any measure, the third best pitcher was John Smoltz. However, he was the best postseason pitcher. It’s a big reason why he’s in the Hall of Fame. 

Curt Schilling was on the same staff as Randy Johnson with the 2001 Diamondbacks. He was on the same staff as Pedro Martinez in 2004. Again, Schilling was not as good as those legends. However, when the postseason came the manager have Schilling the ball because he was the better postseason pitcher. 
Tonight, this is what is on the line for Jacob deGrom. He’s been terrific this postseason. He’s 3-0 with a 1.80 ERA, 1.000 WHIP, and a 12.2 K/9. He’s won a deciding Game 5 on the road with nothing. Now, he’s on the verge of making major league history:

https://twitter.com/bbtn/status/659434494475292673

You can argue if Matt Harvey or Noah Syndergaard are better. I have. Right now, this isn’t about who’s the better pitcher. It’s about who is the clutch pitcher. Who’s the great postseason pitcher. deGrom is on well on his way to showing he belongs in the class of Smoltz and Schilling. He can cement that status tonight. 

He’s the reason Mets fans should be optimistic. He may be the reason why the Mets may win the World Series. It’s time for him to firmly establish his newly earned status as a Big Game Pitcher. 

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Reasons for Optimism

Last night was a tough loss. It was bad from the beginning. Yoenis Cespedes turns a flyball into an inside the park homerun. The Mets blew a two run lead. Yet, the Mets were in position to win Game 1. Unfortunately, Jeurys Familia blew the save with one bad pitch. 

I’ll tell you what. If the Mets are in the same position again tonight, I like the Mets chances. Familia rarely blows a save. After his last blown save, he had 16 saves with a 1.30 ERA and a 1.048 WHIP. Before last night, he was 5/5 in save attempts with a 0.00 ERA and a 0.207 WHIP. He’s not blowing another save. 

Also, keep in mind almost everything had to break right for the Royals to win. They had a routine flyball turn into an inside the park homerun. Matt Harvey had to blow a 3-1 lead. He doesn’t blow leads like that. Twice the Mets picked themselves off the mat and twice got the lead. As much as the Royals fought back, the Mets did as well. 

Another important development was Wilmer Flores was terrific at SS last night. He made all the plays. At one point, he ranged into the hole, made a nice backhand pickup, and made a strong throw to first getting a speedy Alcides Escobar. He’s played this well since Ruben Tejada went down. 

We also know Michael Cuddyer is not getting three at bats in another World Series game. In fact, it’s possible he won’t get three more at bats in total during the rest of the series. He killed two rallies. He shouldn’t be in a position to kill another rally. 

Also, for all the talk of the Royals bullpen, the Mets bullpen was good. Addison Reed was terrific. Tyler Clippard needed some help from Familia, but the Mets did not allow a leadoff double to lead to a run. Jon Niese was terrific. It looks like the Mets bullpen can hold up in this series. 

Speaking of bullpens, the Royals used Game 4 starter, Chris Young, for three innings. The Mets were over anxious in extra innings against him. However, it can’t hurt to have seen him once. Also, he threw 53 pitches, and he will have to come back on three days rest for Game 4. 

With Johnny Cueto always being a risk for a meltdown, the Royals may need to go to the bullpen early. They will need to do it again in Game 4. The Royals terrific bullpen could quickly become taxed. Their greatest strength can quickly become a liability. 

Finally, as we all know momentum is the next day’s starting pitcher. That starting pitcher is Jacob deGrom. He’s been the Mets ace. In the postseason, he is 3-0 with a 1.80 ERA, 1.000 WHIP, and a 12.2 K/9. The Mets still have the starting pitching edge. The Mets have seen the Royals up close and can adjust their pitching accordingly. 

All the Mets needed in Kansas City was a split. That’s still on the table. There’s still reason for optimism. They can still win tonight. 

Lets Go Mets!

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Sheer Torture 

Coming into this game, neither the Mets nor the Royals had won the first game in the World Series. Last night into this morning, they turned it into an art form. 

Ultimately, the game came down to Chris Young and Bartolo Colon. One was as tall as the other one was wide. While Young was mowing down the Mets, Colon was on a tightrope. He finally fell through allowing a sac fly in the 14th. The winning runner was on base after a Wright error and no challenge. The game was just sheer torture. Prior to this, there was an actual baseball game. 

The game did not start the way Matt Harvey and the Mets wanted. Yoenis Cespedes misplayed a fly ball out into an Alcides Escobar inside the park homerun. The first in the World Series since a player named Mule Haas in the 1929 World Series. 

This would kill most teams, but these Mets have shown themselves to be resilient. Travis d’Arnaud singled in Daniel Murphy in the fourth. Curtis Granderson homered in the fifth. Conforto hit a sac fly scoring Cespedes in the sixth. 

Harvey was good tonight. Not great. Not bad. Just good. He pitched six innings allowing five hits, three earned, two walks, and two strikeouts. He was handed a two run lead in the sixth and couldn’t hold it.

After one run scored, he had a chance to get out of it with Mike Moustakas at the plate. Harvey stuck with the offspeed pitches and was seemingly pitching around him to get to Salvador Perez with first base open. A changeup caught too much of the plate, and Moustakas got the RBI single an inning after he made a diving stop to prevent a possible RBI double. From the seventh inning on, it was a battle of the bullpens. 

Remember, the biggest advantage the Royals had this series was the bullpen and team defense. Kelvin Herrera was lighting up the radar gun. He had two outs in the eight when Juan Lagares came to the plate. He was in the game as a defensive replacement for Michael Conforto. Mets fans collectively groaned. 

Lagares had a terrific at bat fighting off everything Herrera had. He got a single. He then barely stole second, and then this happened:

Actually, no, but it was close.

Wilmer Flores hit a chopper towards Eric Hosmer, who tried to backhand it. It went through him, and the Mets grabbed a 4-3 lead.  In a shock to everyone, Jeurys Familia blew the save on a Alex Gordon to homer in the ninth. It was a rare blown save:

Jon Niese came on to pitch in the game he was born to pitch in. Niese was born the day the Mets won the World Series. Well, he pitched like he was born for the moment. He went three innings holding the Royals at bay. 

As we know it wasn’t enough. After watching it part of me wishes the TV stayed off. 

 

However, the Mets hung in there. They’re resilient, and they have Jacob deGrom tonight. All they need is a split. It’s still on the table. I just hope Collins is better. The Mets generally need to be better. 
They will. They just need to show the same resiliency they’ve shown in this game and all year. 

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Uribe Made the World Series Roster?!?!

He’s worked hard to get to this point, and the Mets have rewarded the work by adding Juan Uribe to the World Series roster:

The Case for Uribe

This team turned around with the Uribe trade. He’s been on World Series winners in 2005 and 2010. You’re hoping for a little five year luck there. 

Unlike most teams, the Royals have two lefties in the pen with Danny Duffy and Franklin Morales. Adding Uribe gives the Mets an extra right handed bat off the bench. After Michael Cuddyer the Mets can turn to Uribe. This allows Juan Lagares to be a defensive replacement, and Kevin Plawecki to be ready for a Travis d’Arnaud injury. Don’t worry I tapped on every piece of wood within the nearest square mile after typing that. 

Additionally, it lengthens the bench. In a way, it’s amazing the Mets playing with a 24 man roster never caught up with them. In actuality, there was no way Matt Reynolds was going to play. At least now, the Mets don’t have a dead roster spot. 

I have to say it’s a pretty convincing case. I still don’t like the move. 

The Case Against Uribe

The last time the Mets thought Uribe could go, he exacerbated his chest injury. If that happens in the World Series, the Mets will be burning through 3-4 players in one at bat (original player, Uribe, new batter, defensive replacement). If this happens in Citi Field, this team is in real trouble. 

The next reason is your backup SS is now Kelly Johnson. He’s only played one game at SS, and that was this year. He’s the DH in Game One. If anything happens to Wilmer Flores, the Mets have a terrible choice to make. Do you lose the DH?  Do you move David Wright and his back there?  Do you put Uribe there?  Or my personal favorite:

Yes, the Mets can put Reynolds on the roster for the injured player, but that’s only AFTER the game. If anything happens to Flores, you’re playing a game without a SS [insert Flores isn’t a SS jokes here]. How quickly the Mets have forgotten that Flores almost had to leave Game 4 of the NLCS after hitting his head. 

Furthermore, you’re risking a lot for someone who’s not a terrific hitter. In his playoff career, he has hit .204/.241/.338. As a Met, he has hit .219/.301/.430. As a pinch hitter this year, he has hit .190/.320/.333. He’s 0-4 this year as a DH. It’s just too much to risk for someone that really only plays third and just doesn’t hit the way you think he does. 

Yes, he can change a game and a series with one swing of the bat. It still doesn’t change the fact that this move is extremely risky. I hope he does not only because he’s a Mets fan, but also he’s a big part of this team. 

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How Do the Stud Muffins Compare to MadBum?

Let’s face facts. If not for Madison Bumgarner, this would be a title defense for the Royals as opposed to redemption. It took Bumgarner everything he had to help the Giants win the World Series. 

In the 2014 World Series, Bumgarner went 2-0 with 1 save, a 0.43 ERA, 0.476 WHIP, and a 7.3 K/9. He basically said to his teammates, I got three; you just need to get one. In the three games he pitched in, the Royals averaged one run per game. In the other games, the Royals averaged six runs per game. That’s a huge gap. 

With all the noise over the Royals hitting the 95+ MPH pitching well, I wanted to see what Bumgarner threw in that World Series:

  • 93.40 MPH fastball 52.23% of the time
  • 85.04 MPH changeup 3.78% of the time 
  • 76.25 MPH curve 15.12% of the time
  • 87.46 MPH cutter 27.84% of the time
  • 67.20 MPH slow curve 1.03% of the time

This shows not only how to beat the Royals but how to pitch in general. You want to establish the fastball and keep the batters off balance with the offspeed pitches. Let’s see how the Mets stud muffins compare this postseason:

Matt Harvey

  • 95.86 MPH fastball 59.56% of the time
  • 88.08 MPH change 11.48% of the time
  • 90.29 MPH slider 14.75% of the time
  • 84.01 MPH curve 14.21% of the time

Jacob deGrom

  • 96.23 MPH fastball 37.89% of the time
  • 96.44 MPH sinker 18.01% of the time 
  • 86.54 MPH change 15.84% of the time 
  • 90.03 MPH slider 12.01% of the time
  • 81.63 MPH curve 16.15% of the time

Noah Syndergaard

  • 98.66 MPH fastball 26.64% of the time
  • 98.63 MPH sinker 32.31% of the time
  • 89.46 MPH change 16.16% of the time
  • 87.96 MPH slider 8.73% of the time
  • 81.53 MPH curve 16.16% of the time

What does this information tell us?  The Mets three aces pitch similarly to Bumgarner. They establish the fastball and use the same ratio of breaking pitches to keep the hitters off balance. There are two key differences here: (1) Bumgarner is a lefty; and (2) the Royals offense is much improved. 

However, keep in mind the Royals couldn’t handle Bumgarner at all last year. Now, the Mets are running out three Bumgarners out there. They will pitch in six of the seven games if necessary. 

In the end, I’m not sure how the Royals can keep up their 5.9 runs per postseason game. If they want to beat the Mets they will either have to find a way or pitch much better.  If they don’t do either or both, the Mets will win the World Series. 

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Can the Royals Really Hit the Mets Pitching?

It seemed like the immediate narrative after the conclusion of both League Championship Series was the Mets biggest strength may not be a strength in the World Series:

As we all know, the Mets greatest strength is its good young pitching. The Mets pitching throws it hard and over 95 MPH:

  1. Matt Harvey – 96.54 MPH four seamer and 96.11 MPH sinker
  2. Jacob deGrom – 95.81 MPH four seamer and 95.49 MPH sinker
  3. Noah Syndergaard – 97.75 MPH four seamer and 97.78 MPH sinker
  4. Steven Matz 94.57 MPH four seamer
  5. Jeurys Familia 98.21 MPH four seamer and 97.66 MPH sinker 

That’s not good news. Fortunately for the Mets, that’s not the whole story. While the Royals hit high heat well, they do not hit offspeed pitching and breaking balls well. The Royals are only hitting .220 on pitches 87 MPH and below.  The highest percentage of Mets pitches this postseason was in this range. 

We saw it in the NLCS. The Mets did throw their 95+ MPH fastballs, but they also mixed in their offspeed and breaking pitches early. The Mets pitching isn’t great just because of their fastballs. They’re great because they pitch great. 

During the regular season, the Mets ranked second in WHIP with a 1.18 mark. They ranked fourth with a 3.49 K/BB ratio. They ranked fourth with a 3.43 ERA. They allowed the second least amount of walks, and they were sixth with a .243 batting average against. All said and done, if you want to beat the Mets pitching, you have to beat them. They’re not going to walk you, and they’re not giving up many hits. 

This either lines up perfectly for the Royals or it’ll be a complete disaster. The Royals were second to last in walks. They struck out the least amount of times. They were third in team batting average. They were 24th (last in the AL) in homers, but they were 11th in slugging. 

Overall, the Royals put a lot of balls in play against a staff that doesn’t allow a lot of hits. At times like this, I’m reminded of the adage of good pitching beats good hitting. It’s worked for the Mets so far this postseason. 

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Yes, Matt Harvey Should Start Game One

Throughout 2015, Jacob deGrom has been the Mets ace. He deserved to get the ball in the first game of the playoffs. He delivered not once, not twice, but in all three of his postseason starts. So why hand the ball to Matt Harvey now?

First, it was his turn in the rotation. Players are creatures of habit. This goes doubly so for starting pitchers. There’s no need to take the pitchers out of their routine right now, especially with a long layover after sweeping the Cubs. 

Second, deGrom needs a little more rest. His velocity has dipped by about three MPH. He’s had less control going from 71.7% strikes to just 61.5% in the NLCS. In addition, deGrom could benefit from extra rest. During the regular season, he posted a 2.63 ERA with more than five days of rest. That’s worse than his four day rest (1.47 ERA) numbers, but it is better than his five days rest numbers (3.27 ERA). 

Third, Harvey may have more availability:

We saw the advantage it was having Noah Syndergaard available in Game 5 of the NLDS. You want your best pitchers as much as possible. That should include Harvey pitching in Game 7. Note, I believe deGrom would go to the whip as well if the roles were reversed. 

Fourth, Harvey is pitching a little better right now. In his last start, Harvey pitched 7.2 innings allowing 4 hits, 2 earned, 2 walks, and 9 strikeouts. He was perfect through four. I’m not sure the Cubs even get a run in the game if not for a Juan Lagares misplay. 

In his last start deGrom pitched well. He pitched 7.0 innings allowing 4 hits, 2 earned, 1 walk, and 7 strikeouts. It’s picking nits, but deGrom wasn’t as good as Harvey. However, when you have three great starting pitchers, picking nits is all you have. 

Fifth, through all of it Harvey might just be the better pitcher. It doesn’t change the fact that deGrom had a better year, but Harvey has better stuff. No, I don’t have something to link here. It’s just my belief. Harvey has pitched extremely well coming off of Tommy John surgery; the year in which pitchers struggle the most. Harvey has his same repertoire of pitches and added a curveball. He has more ways to get you out. 

Overall, I’d go with Harvey. You can make an excellent case for deGrom as well. You can make a compelling case for Thor as well. In the end, that’s the best news. We’re arguing over three pitchers who would all arguably take the ball in Game One for the Royals. 

Sometimes, minor discussions like this gives you the biggest hope the Mets will win this World Series. 

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It Was Worth the Wait

My favorite Mets team was the 1999 team. I loved everything about that team from Bobby V to Mike Piazza to Edgardo Alfonzo to Robin Ventura to John Olerud. It was my first real taste of a pennant race and the playoffs. I was lucky to be there for Pratt’s All Folks and the Grand Slam Single. I look back on the year with melancoly because of this:

In 2000, the Mets got Mike Hampton. The season became World Series or bust. A strange feeling for a Mets fan. Hampton would deliver. He was the NLCS MVP. The Mets then had to face the Yankees in the World Series. It was a cruel series with Todd Zeile‘s ball landing on the wall and falling back into play.  Timo Perez didn’t run and didn’t score. Roger Clemens threw a bat at Piazza and wasn’t ejected. The series then ended in the most heartbreaking way possible:

The Mets would be terrible for the next few years, but everything came together in 2006. Our homegrown stars, Jose Reyes and David Wright, we’re becoming superstars. They were joined by the two Carloses: Carlos Beltran and Carlos Delgado. It was a team that ran roughshod over the National League. Beltran was the best baseball player on the planet that year (who somehow didn’t win the MVP). The Mets had momentum in Game Seven with Endy Chavez’s catch. Here’s how that season ended:

In 2007, the Mets reloaded and were primed to go back to the World Series. They were up 7 with 17 to play. On the final game of the season, they sent future Hall of Famer Tom Glavine to the mound with his 300 wins. He wouldn’t be devastated when he got out of the first, but we would:

In 2008, the Mets diagnosed their problem, and much like 2000, they went out to get it. The Mets brought in Johan Santana, and he delivered. they needed him in a strange year that saw Wille Randolph fired after a win on the first game of a west coast trip. The interim manager threatened to cut Reyes if he didn’t come off the field after pulling up lame, and people acted like it was a good thing. Through all of that, the Mets were collapsing again, and yet an injured Santana took the ball on three days rest. He saved the season, but only for a day: 

The last three were the most difficult for me because I was there. It got more difficult because Citi Field was initially a disappointment. It got worse because the product on the field was bad. 

Then Matt Harvey came up and was an All Star. Jacob deGrom came from seemingly nowhere to become a Rookie of the Year and an All Star. They were joined by Noah Syndergaard. The Mets made a flurry of trades including one for Yoenis Cespedes. Daniel Murphy had an out of body experience. Then this happened:

All that pain. All that suffering. We know what it’s like to be Mets fans. There’s pain and suffering. However, there are moments of pure joy. It’s all the losing that makes nights like last night all the more special. 

We’re Mets fans. We were there for all of this. There are older fans who experienced more pain, but also more joy. There are younger fans who only know losing. Now, we’re all Pennant Winners. It’s like the 80’s again when the Mets are the best team of baseball. We’re “Back in the New York groove!”

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What Are the Cubs Made Of?

Nothing can make a team look bad like great pitching. Nothing can take a red hot team to their knees like great pitching. As anticipated, the Mets have had great pitching. Here’s how the Mets starters have performed:

Matt Harvey 7.2 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 9 K
Noah Syndergaard 5.2 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 9 K
Jacob deGrom 7.0 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 7 K
It’s the reason why the Cubs have been shut down thus far. This is the same Cubs team that scored 20 runs in a 3-1 win over the Cardinals in the Division Series. The Cubs entered the playoffs winning eight in a row before taking out the Pirates in the Wild Card Game. 

The Cubs back are against the wall, and they get a slight break tonight with Steven Matz. We’re going to see what the Cubs are made of tonight. I expect them to bring their best.  

I still expect the Mets to win. 

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Back to the Mets Future 

Today is widely known as Back to Future Day because this was the day Marty McFly went to 2015:

  
Watching Back to the Future Part II in theaters, I remember thinking 2015 was so far away. I remember watching the Mets during this year, I thought the World Series was so far away. Let’s travel back to see the Mets starting lineups:

April 21, 2015 Mets 7 – Braves 1

  1. Curtis Granderson RF
  2. Juan Lagares CF 
  3. Lucas Duda 1B
  4. Michael Cuddyer LF
  5. Daniel Murphy 2B
  6. Eric Campbell 3B
  7. Kevin Plawecki C
  8. Wilmer Flores SS
  9. Jon Niese P

May 21, 2015 Mets 5 – Cardinals 0

  1. Juan Lagares CF
  2. Wilmer Flores SS
  3. Lucas Duda 1B
  4. Michael Cuddyer LF
  5. Daniel Murphy 2B
  6. John Mayberry, Jr. RF
  7. Eric Campbell 3B
  8. Kevin Plawecki C
  9. Jacob deGrom P

June 21, 2015 Braves 1 – Mets 0

  1. Curtis Granderson RF
  2. Juan Lagares CF
  3. Lucas Duda 1B
  4. Michael Cuddyer LF
  5. Wilmer Flores SS
  6. Kevin Plawecki C
  7. Dilson Herrera 2B
  8. Eric Campbell 3B
  9. Matt Harvey P

July 21, 2015 Mets 7 – Nationals 2

  1. Curtis Granderson RF
  2. Ruben Tejada SS
  3. Lucas Duda 1B
  4. Daniel Murphy 3B
  5. Wilmer Flores 2B
  6. Kirk Nieuwenhuis LF
  7. Kevin Plawecki C
  8. Jacob deGrom P
  9. Juan Lagares CF

August 21, 2015 Mets 14 – Rockies 9

  1. Curtis Granderson RF
  2. Daniel Murphy 3B
  3. Yoenis Cespedes CF
  4. Lucas Duda 1B
  5. Wilmer Flores SS
  6. Kelly Johnson 2B
  7. Travis d’Arnaud C
  8. Michael Conforto LF
  9. Bartolo Colon P

September 21, 2015 Mets 4 – Braves 0

  1. Curtis Granderson RF
  2. Daniel Murphy 3B
  3. Yoenis Cespedes CF
  4. Lucas Duda 1B
  5. Travis d’Arnaud C
  6. Kelly Johnson 2B
  7. Michael Conforto LF
  8. Wilmer Flores SS
  9. Jon Niese P

October 21, 2015 (estimated)

  1. Curtis Granderson RF
  2. David Wright 3B
  3. Daniel Murphy 2B
  4. Yoenis Cespedes CF
  5. Lucas Duda 1B
  6. Travis d’Arnaud
  7. Michael Conforto LF
  8. Wilmer Flores SS
  9. Steven Matz P

Looking over these lineups, it was not until August that anyone could believe the Mets had an offense that could be capable of winning in October. Now, Mets fans believe this team can’t be beat. I hoping that’s the case tonight. 

I want to see the Mets Back to the World Series. 

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