Jacob deGrom
Back in the 90’s when the Braves had Glavine, Maddux, and Smoltz, Leo Mazzone was hailed as a genius. When he went to the Baltimore Orioles, not so much. Rick Peterson was a genius with Hudson, Mulder, and Zito. With the Mets, he was a scapegoat. He was replaced with Dan Warthen.
Now that the Mets have Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, and Noah Syndergaard, Warthen has gained some notoriety. We now hear about the “Warthen Slider.” As is the case, when you get a trio of young aces, all the fame is going to come your way. They point to certain things you do that makes great pitchers great. Typically, pitching coaches get a lot of praise when they have great pitchers. Warthen, who had survived two GMs and two managers, is no different. How good is he really? Perhaps, we are about to find out.
This past offseason the Mets traded Jon Niese. He was once regarded well enough to receive a five year contract extension with two additional team options. Overall, Niese was somewhat disappointing. He’s had shoulder problems. He was 61-61 with a 3.91 ERA and a 1.361 WHIP. I believe it’s fair to say the Mets expected more and didn’t receive it. Now, Niese is a Pittsburgh Pirate where he is now joined with well regarded pitching coach Ray Searage.
Searage is fast developing a reputation as a pitching guru. Unlike most pitching coaches, it’s not because of who he has, but what he does with what he has. Here’s an example of some of his success stories:
- 2012 Twins/White Sox 6-12, 5.34 ERA, 1.468 WHIP
- 2013-2015 Pirates 35-25, 3.26 ERA, 1.241 ERA
- 2011 Yankees 11-11, 5.15 ERA, 1.434 WHIP
- 2012-2013 Pirates 26-21, 3.41 ERA, 1.228 WHIP
- 2014 Phillies 8-18, 4.59 ERA, 1.409 WHIP
- 2015 Pirates 9-7, 3.18 ERA, 1.360 ERA
- 2015 Mariners 4-6, 4.64 ERA, 1.408 WHIP
- 2015 Pirates 7-2, 1.85 ERA, 1.026 WHIP
As noted above, Searage’s next project is Niese. He’s coming off of what might be perhaps the worst year of his career where he went 9-10 with a 4.13 ERA and a 1.398 WHIP. Searage has his work cut out for him, especially with a head strong pitcher like Niese. For his part, Niese is seeing an opportunity for improvement with a superior Pirates defense. Is the Pirates defense Searage’s equivalent to Warthen’s slider? Who knows?
At the end of the day, it’s a results based business, and Searage has done something with his pitchers to coax better results than they have elsewhere. If that continues, Niese is about to have the best year of what has so far been a very disappointing career. It’ll be another pitcher that Searage has been able to reach that other pitching coaches couldn’t.
If that’s true, it doesn’t make Warthen a bad pitching coach. Rather, it shows that like this who have come before him, his perceived skill is more closely tied to the skills possessed by his pitching staff.
As a Giants fan, I love Eli Manning. Any true Giants fan would. The man won two Super Bowls picking up an MVP in each game. There’s always the debate if he’s elite or not. That conversation never concerned me because I knew that my guy could go up against Brett Favre, Aaron Rodgers, and Tom Brady (twice) and beat them in the biggest games. He inspires confidence. That’s all I could ask. That’s why he’s a big time QB.
That’s how I feel about the Mets current pitching staff. Last we saw them, they were leading the Mets to an improbable National League Pennant. Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, and Noah Syndergaard went out there and established they can pitch with anybody. Better yet, they established they can beat anybody. In the NLDS, it was Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke for two starts a piece. In the NLCS, it was Jake Arrieta and Jon Lester. Mets beat them all.
With Arrieta, Greinke, and Kershaw, the Mets beat the top three in the NL Cy Young voting. With Lester, the Mets beat a pitcher who has a 2.85 postseason ERA along with a 1.071 WHIP. Harvey, deGrom, and Syndergaard beat them all. Not only did they establish they can pitch with the best, they also established they can beat the best. That’s all you need to know about them.
Sure, the Mets rotation wasn’t ranked ahead of the Cubs rotation, nor was it ranked as the top rotation in baseball. None of the Mets pitchers were ranked as the top 10 pitchers right now. At the end of the day, who cares? Seriously. This stuff is to create and drive debate. What’s not up for debate is that the Mets Big Three can go against any other team’s pitching and win.
So while everyone can go on discussing who is and who is not elite, I’m perfectly comfortable watching my guys collect division titles and pennants. They’ve proven they can do that, and they will do it again. So yes, none of the Mets starters are in the Top 10 right now. At the end of the day, it doesn’t matter.
The Mets starters right now are number one in the National League.
If you’ve worked anywhere, and a new boss comes in, you know they want to immediately set new things in place. They want to leave their mark. It doesn’t matter if the changes are needed or wanted. When Commissioner Rob Manfred took the helm, he set forth to improve the pace of play and average game times.
We can discuss whether the changes and/or enforcing of rules already in place was a good thing. We can debate if the changes had a noticeable impact. We can even argue if this was even necessary. That is all besides the point. What is clear, however, is that is something that the Commissioner wanted to improve.
To me, this is why the “momentum” towards adding the DH in the NL doesn’t make sense. Let’s start with the subjective. At a minimum, for innings 1-5, a National League pitcher will normally get at least two at bats. When a pitcher comes up to bat, you normally see an out. This out may be the result of the pitcher being a poor hitter. The out may be as a result of the pitcher going up there to sacrifice bunt. Regardless, the pitcher is typically a quick out. When there are quick outs, you move the game along more quickly.
Now, this quick out that helps move the game along and arguably helps improve the pace of play is replaced with a DH. As structured a DH is not an easy out. They’re typical a better hitter than the pitcher who wins the Silver Slugger. This year it was Madison Bumgarner, who hit .247/.275/.468 with five homers and 9 RBI. That’s an outlier, where you are blown over by that pitcher’s hitting stats. If you got that from a position player or a DH, you’d be screaming for them to be benched, like Evan Gattis, who hit .246/.285/.463. Side note, what was A.J. Hinch thinking last year making Gattis the DH for 136 regular season games and all six postseason games?
While it’s noteworthy that the worst DH was a better hitter than the best hitting pitcher, it’s not a complete analysis. Given that I live in the New York market, I predominantly see the Mets and Yankees play. As you may guess, I watch a lot more Mets games. In any event, in New York, the best hitting pitcher is Jacob de Grom, who hit .186/.226/.203. The Yankees normal DH was a guy you might have heard of who goes by the name Alex Rodriguez. Last year, A-Rod hit .250/.356/.486. That’s a massive difference. With A-Rod getting on base much more frequently over the position he’s replacing, the game should be longer.
However, is that necessarily true? We can think it makes the games longer, but that does not make it necessarily true. Well, it turns out AL games are typically longer than NL games. In 2014, AL games were about four minutes longer than NL games. Admittedly, four minutes may not seem like much time. However, MLB put measures in place to reduce game times, and the net result was six less minutes per game. Say what you want with respect to this, but it’s a start.
In all fairness, it does appear that the pace of play initiative had a more profound impact on the AL. The split between the NL and AL is now approximately one minute. With that said, NL games are still shorter. I’m still interested to see if: (1) MLB will continue this initiative; and (2) what the further impact this initiative has on both leagues.
However, the main point is MLB wants to shorten games. If the DH is introduced into the NL, game times will lengthen. These two concepts do not jive. As such, if MLB wants to reduce game times, it should keep the DH out of the National League.
Editor’s Note: this is the first in a series on the possibility of the NL adding the DH.
Honestly, I believe it’s too early to start naming Opening Day starters, but teams are already doing it. I guess when you’re the Diamondbacks it’s easy. When you’re the Mets with a loaded pitching staff, it’s a much more interesting question.
The first choice would be Jacob deGrom. He had the best year out of any Mets starter last year. He was the story of last year’s All Star Game. He was terrific in the NLDS. Also, he was supposed to be the Game Sux starter. Starting him in Kansas City would be the Mets way of saying we’re picking up where we left off, and we’re heading back to the World Series.
The next choice is Matt Harvey. In many ways, he’s the presumptive ace. He’s the guy that burst on the scene in 2013 giving the Mets fans hope this all was coming. He’s another year removed from Tommy John surgery, and the second year back is normally when a pitcher excels. He ended his year with an incredible Game Five performance. Starting Harvey in Kansas City is saying you’re not going to beat us again.
With all that said, I start Noah Syndergaard on Opening Day. The message is plain and simple. We’re not backing down this year from anyone. This was a 23 year old rookie pitcher who toed the rubber at the first ever World Series game at Citi Field, and this was his first pitch:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=FMbpt_TtDro
When the Royals complained about the pitch, Thor told them to meet him at the mound. His presence on the mound alone is saying to the baseball world the Mets are intimidated by no one, and they’re back fighting to win 2016. If you have a problem with that, you know where to find them. The story line won’t be about the Royals getting their rings. Instead, it’ll be about how the Royals will handle Thor.
We want the 2016 season to be about the Mets and their pitching staff. We want it to be about the Mets responding to last year’s World Series loss by beating and intimidating other teams. You want all of baseball to look at this staff and wonder how they’re going to beat the Mets. This needs to be the story from day one. Let Terry Collins explain he’s starting the guy who beat the Royals last year. However he presents it, the most important thing is that we all know the Mets are going out there looking to get into their opponents’ heads with their pitching.
That starts day one. That’s why you start Thor on Opening Day.
Supposedly, this documentary was directed at Mets fans. As such, I really wanted to like it. With that said, wow that completely missed the mark.
Yes, completely. I know it’s an hour show. However, it missed so many HUGE storylines. First, there was no real mention of Matt Harvey. Seriously? He was coming back from Tommy John surgery. It was the reason for the flip-flopping on the six man rotation all season. There was the Yankee game. There was the innings limit drama. There was the whole keeping him in too long in Game 5. Harvey was a huge, important, and at times, divisive figure. He barely received a blurb.
Speaking of pitching. This could’ve been the year Jacob deGrom became the staff ace. He was utterly dominant in the first half. He was the story of the All Star Game. He opened the postseason with a 13 strikeout performance. He somehow gutted out Game 5 of the NLDS, which is known as The Murphy Game.
Both pitchers got less coverage than Steven Matz‘s debut and his grandfather. It was a big moment in the season, but also lost there was the Mets mismanaging his injury in a season of the Mets mismanaging injuries. Heck, Matz got more coverage than any pitcher. That includes Noah Syndergaard, who was probably standing 60′ 6′ away. It also includes Jeurys Familia, who got thrust into the closer’s role due to two Jenrry Mejia PED suspensions. Familia was arguably the team MVP, but you wouldn’t know if from any of this.
Speaking of MVPs, if he wasn’t interviewed, I wouldn’t have known Curtis Granderson was even on the team. Granderson may have been the sole professional bat on an injury ridden deplorable offense. We heard about David Wright‘s back, but we didn’t hear about any of the other injuries (even in passing) that led to John Mayberry, Jr. and Eric Campbell hitting in the middle of the lineup. How do you miss this? Ask any Mets fan, and they will tell you that was a seminal moment in the season.
It was part of the whole Mets mockery of the fans with Panic City. It lead to an important Mike Vaccaro column about the Mets malpractice. This column really touched upon what it meant to be a Mets fan since the Madoff scandal. We were angry. Very angry. There was a campaign to buy a billboard did the Wilpons to sell the team. That side of the story wasn’t voiced, not even with Joe & Evan.
Instead, we got The 7 Line Army story. I mean no disrespect to Darren Meenan and what he’s created, but why was The 7 Lime Army featured more than anything else? The 7 Line Army got more coverage than Yoenis Cespedes being the hottest hitter anyone has ever seen. Seriously, when Cespedes hit the NLDS homer, we saw The 7 Line Army celebrating instead of an epic bat flip. Interview Darren Meenan? Absolutely. He’s a fan, and he’s made a successful business out of his fandom. However, I’m sorry. The 7 Line Army was not the defining story of the 2015 season. Yet, it got a lot of coverage. Maybe the most coverage.
With that, a lot was missed. Think about it. There were many key games this past season. If you take longer than a nanosecond to pinpoint the Padres game as the nadir, you’re a casual fan. If you don’t know the game to which I’m referring, you’re not a Mets fan. That game set the stage for the exhilaration fans felt after the Cespedes’ trade. No matter your feelings about the trade, you were excited to se degree that the Mets were remade and going for it.
That trade flipped the script on the season for the fans . . . perhaps for the team as well. The Mets went from an under-.500 team falling apart at the seams to real contenders. They went from a laughingstock with the Carlos Gomez trade debacle to a force to be reckoned. The documentary took the incredible, real-life drama that unfolded and omitted it. You could do a mini-series on July 30th and July 31st. Instead, we get a snarky Tom Verducci comment about Mets fans not being happy. I would say the quote was taken out of context, but really, how could it be? Until that trade, the Mets had cheap owners and an under-.500 ball club. Any fan had a right to be angry.
That’s the thing overall. You simply cannot discuss the fans without capturing their anger. It’s an example of how passionate Mets fans are. We’re not the hapless bunch we were presented as to the world. We are fans that have lived through nightmares. There was the worst team ever assembled. The Midnight Massacre. There were the misses in the 80’s. The Worst Team Money Can Buy. Kenny Rogers walked in the series winning run. Mike Piazza‘s ball died on the warning track. Carlos Beltran struck out looking followed by two collapses. All hope was then seemingly lost with the Madoff scandal.
However, Mets fans have seen enough magic to believe in anything. The Miracle Mets. Ya Gotta Believe! A little roller up the first base line. The Grand Slam Single. Overall, Mets fans don’t expect the worst. We’re not Cubs fans or pre-2004 Red Sox fans. No, we believe anything can and will happen. It’s a feeling that was awoken with Harvey’s right arm. It’s a feeling that’s not going away.
So no, Tears of Joy didn’t tell the world about Mets fans. It missed the mark despite excellent work by Anthony DiComo, Jared Diamond, and Jim Breuer.
Also, it didn’t tell me about the team or the season. From my understanding of Tears of Joy, Daniel Murphy had a hot streak before losing the World Series with an error. All 27 homerun Lucas Duda did was make a poor throw home. I could go on and on ad nauseum, but you get it. You watched the season. You know just as well as I do that Tears of Joy didn’t do a good job describing the ups and [mostly] downs of the season.
No, overall it mostly failed to capture the season or the fans. It’s disappointing really, just as the end of the 2015 season was. I guess there it at least hit the right tone.
Like everyone else, I’ve gone on and on about Ben Zobrist, Daniel Murphy, and the whole second base situation. Now, Zobrist seems to be close to making a decision, and many have speculated he may just become a Met. Honestly, why would he do that?
First and foremost, the obvious reason is the Mets may be offering the most money, which frankly, is a rarity in these situations. Other than that, I can only think of five other reasons Zobrist would want to be a Met:
Sure, the Mets are an NL East team closer to Zobrist’s Tennessee home than an NL West team, and they intend to put him at second where he prefers. The Mets did win the pennant establishing they are ready to win now. There are other nice pieces on the team, but they carry question marks: Curtis Granderson (age), David Wright (back), Travis d’Arnaud (injury history), and Juan Lagares (right handed pitching).
Zobrist would be joining a team losing its #3 and #4 hitters and replacing them both with just him. The Mets also have a bottom third payroll with apparently not much room to increase it despite the additional playoff revenue. Sure, every team has problems, but the other two teams interested in Zobrist will go out and spend. The other options may be more attractive than the Mets.
Washington Nationals
Keep in mind, the Nationals remain a dangerous team. They still have Max Scherzer (who no-hit the Mets) and Stephen Strasburg headlining the rotation. Bryce Harper took his game to the next level and won the MVP award. Anthony Rendon is a very good young player, who may very well be a Top 5 Third Baseman. There are exciting young players like Michael Taylor and Trea Turner.
The Nationals also had the third highest payroll in the sport last year (no one was going higher than the Dodgers and Yankees). They already addressed their biggest problem from last year by firing Matt Williams and hiring Dusty Baker. Dusty has his flaws, but he always seems to get the most out of his players. Lastly, the Nationals have already stated they want Zobrist to play second base.
Overall, the Nationals are still poised to win a lot of games next year, have a lot of terrific pieces, and have the ability to spend the money necessary to be a contender to win the World Series.
San Fransicso Giants
Speaking of contenders to win the World Series, next year is an even numbered year, which means the Giants are due to win the World Series. The Giants were the other team that no-hit the Mets this year.
Overall, there is a lot to like with the Giants. Madison Bumgarner is the best money pitcher in the sport. Buster Posey might just be the best position player in the NL (if it’s not Harper). Bruce Bochy is the best manager in all of baseball as well. There’s also the matter of the Giants hitting coach, who has been doing wonders with some of their younger players.
Gold Glover Brandon Crawford has increasingly hit for more power. Joe Panik has become an underestimated high OBP second baseman (sound familiar?). Matt Duffy showed increased power while finishing second in the Rookie of the Year voting.
Seriously, so what if the Giants want Zobrist to play LF? This is a team built to contend for the long and short team. They also have the sixth highest payroll in baseball. This team has an eye for young talent and is willing to spend to either keep their players or bring in new ones to fill their holes. The Giants have truly created a wonderful organization.
The Decision
If you’re being honest with yourself, and the money is even, why would you pick the Mets? They don’t have the wherewithal to spend the other teams do. The other teams have been addressing needs this offseason, while the Mets have yet to bring someone in to improve their team. It’s still debatable if the Mets have enough money to make another significant move if Zobrist becomes a Met.
If it was me, I’d always pick the Mets because I’m a die hard fan. However, if we’re looking at these teams on paper, I’m not sure the Mets are the most attractive option for any free agent. You have to know that going to the Mets may mean you’re going to be the only major league signing. That’s been pretty much true of ever offseason for the Sandy Alderson regime.
Given the fact that Zobrist wants to win, play second, and stay closer to home, why shouldn’t he pick the Nationals? They have pitching and an arguably better lineup then the Mets. They also have the ability to spend more money than the Mets.
While I would always choose to be a Met, if I’m being honest, a sure with no such loyalty could/should choose differently.
There’s a moment that will forever live in Mets infamy:
(Seriously, how is there no video of this moment available?)
After all the garbage with Roger Clemens and Mike Piazza, the Mets finally had a chance to get revenge. Clemens came to Shea and finally had to stand in the batter’s box to answer for all his sins. Then Shawn Estes, who wasn’t a Met when everything happened, just missed. Missed!
There were discussions on whether it was fair to put Estes in that spot. I always disregarded them. Estes was Piazza’s teammate. You stand up for your teammates. The Mets will have that opportunity again with that coward re-signing with the Dodgers. After the World Series, the hope is it’s Noah Syndergaard standing 60’6″ away from Chase Utley.
After Utley’s dirty slide, the Mets have an opportunity to exact revenge. It will be all the more important if Ruben Tejada remains on the team. Assuming the rotation is the same set-up as in the World Series, the Mets re-set the rotation after the first two games of the season, and the Mets having a full five man rotation from that point forward the job will fall to Steven Matz. If the Mets don’t reset the rotation, the job will fall to Jacob deGrom.
In some ways, the task will be easier for whoever the pitcher is because they were on the team when it happened. On the other hand, the situation is more difficult because the pitcher will have to do it in Los Angeles.
Whomever it is, they need to actually plunk Utley. For the psyche of the team and the fan base, that pitcher can’t miss.
Something occurred to me last night. The Mets have a real problem this offseason. It’s one that they partially created. In a nutshell, they arrived too soon.
At the beginning of 2015, no one saw the Mets winning the NL Pennant. They were coming off a 79-83 season. The already dominant Nationals added Max Scherzer. Bryce Harper wasn’t the only one who thought the Nationals were bound to win a ring. Even with Jacob deGrom winning the Rookie of the Year and the return of Matt Harvey most thought the best case scenario was the Mets competing for one of the Wild Cards.
What happened? The National faltered so badly they had to fire their manager. deGrom was even better than he was in his rookie year. Harvey showed no rust and has no setbacks in his first season back from Tommy John surgery. The Mets offense and his play in AA forced the Mets to call up Michael Conforto, who played well. Noah Syndergaard had an incredible rookie year. Jeurys Familia became a great closer.
Add that to Curtis Granderson having a great year and an amazing two months from Yoenis Cespedes, the Mets win 90 games and win the NL East. When the young pitching delivers in the postseason and Daniel Murphy becomes unhittable, you win a pennant. Man was that an unlikely pennant. Going into the year, you would’ve thought everything wouldn’t had to break right for the Mets to get to this point. It was quite the opposite.
Zack Wheeler‘s season was over before it began with him needing Tommy John surgery. David Wright missed most of the season with spinal stenosis. Murphy was in and out of the lineup in the first half with injuries. Michael Cuddyer wasn’t as good as they hoped, got hurt, and became an expensive bench player. Wilmer Flores struggled at shortstop creating a strange platoon with Ruben Tejada. Dilson Herrera couldn’t fill the gaps because he still wasn’t ready. Travis d’Arnaud had two long DL trips, and his replacements couldn’t hit. Juan Lagares took big steps back offensively and defensively. Lucas Duda had a streaky year with prolonged slumps. Oh, and their closer, Jenrry Mejia, had not one but two PED suspensions.
Really, this wasn’t some magical season. It was frustrating for most of the year. It was magical from August on. If not fit the Nationals ineptitude, the Mets should’ve been dead and buried. The Mets should’ve been looking to build off of a strong 2015 season. The Mets still have prospects a year or two away. The year was really supposed to be 2017. That was the year the Mets pitching would’ve been firmly established with the Mets having quality players at every position across the diamond.
No, they’re way ahead of schedule. They’re ready to let Murphy walk after he’s been a solid player for many years, let alone that postseason. There’s no room for Cespedes. The Mets are again talking about not being able to expand payroll. It’s creating an air of frustration amongst the fan base. It’s strange considering what happened in 2015.
What’s also strange is a poor NL East is seemingly getting worse. The NL East may very well be there for the taking WITHOUT the Mets signing even one player. In actuality, not signing anyone could arguably be a prudent move for the future of the team.
Do you really want to block 2B with a large contract when Herrera is a potential All Star. Do you grossly overpay for a bad shortstop when the Mets have not one but two big prospects at that position who are not far away? Why are you getting a terrible centerfielder when Brandon Nimmo is so close.
Do you block the path for some potential All Stars for aging players who MAY help you one year and be an albatross when the prospects are ready? How do you not build upon a team that went to the World Series last year? Can you reasonably ask a fan base to wait another year after all the losing? How do you explain last year might’ve been a fluke?
That’s the Mets real problem. They’re trying to juggle the present and the future. The front office is going to have to earn their money this offseason.
Let me start off by saying, I’m not in favor of trading the Mets starting pitching. They’re still cheap, and they’re the main reason the Mets won the NL East and went to the World Series.
With that said, everyone wants at least one of the Mets young starters. It at least appears the Mets are shopping Zack Wheeler. There’s a lot of smoke surrounding the Mets moving Matt Harvey. It’s probably due to the double standards applied to him. It’s more likely that it involves him being arbitration eligible with the Mets having limited resources.
In any event, the Harvey rumors and trade suggestions are abound. At my cousin’s wedding on Saturday (congratulations Brian and Alison), my brother and I discussed the Mark Simon article regarding the proposed Harvey for Mookie Betts trade. My brother’s main objection to the idea of trading Harvey was his value will only increase next year. If we’ve seen anything with pitcher’s recovering from Tommy John surgery, it’s they are better in Year 2.
My brother is right in principle. You want to trade players at their peak value. Right now, that pitcher is Jacob deGrom. For much of the season, he was a Cy Young candidate. He was the story at the All Star Game. He had a terrific postseason. He’s not arbitration eligible until 2018, and he can’t be a free agent until 2021. His value may be at its absolute peak.
He will also be 28 years old next year making him the oldest Mets starting pitcher, at least the oldest amongst those who the Mets have control over past 2016. In some ways, he emerged as the staff ace rendering him untradeable. In other ways, it makes it the right time to trade him.
You don’t trade someone like Harvey who is still building up his trade value. You trade the player who you believe is at peak value. Again, while I don’t advocate trading a starting pitcher, we should at least identify the one who will bring back the most value and be at the most risk for regression.
That player is deGrom.
When discussing the 2016 Mets, I see many people referring to their Big 4. Now, I knew there was a Big 3, who were referred to as stud muffins by Tom Seaver. My question is who is the fourth member of this proverbial Big 4.
Let’s start with the obvious. It’s not Jon Niese. He’s the definition of an average pitcher. Also, even if he’s the fourth best pitcher, I’m assuming it’s not Jeurys Familia. I doubt a closer would be thrown in with a Big 4 starting pitching group.
No, the fourth member would be either Steven Matz or Zack Wheeler. I like both Matz and Wheeler, but they haven’t earned this distinction yet.
In his career, Wheeler is 18-16 with a 3.50 ERA, 1.339 WHIP, and an 8.5 K/9. His ERA+ is 100, which means he’s just an average pitcher. That should be no surprise given his other statistics. While this is nothing to sneeze at, it does not merit putting him in the same conversation as Harvey, Thor, and deGrom. This is before taking his return from Tommy John into account. Wheeler is a tremendous talent, but he’s not a part of a Big 4 yet.
The more obvious choice for the Big 4 is Matz because he was in the postseason rotation. The only thing I can say about Matz right now is we had no idea what he is. He was incredible in his first two starts before being shut down with a lat injury. He was average when he came back only to hurt his back sleeping on the sofa. When he returned he was only good through five innings in the postseason.
This isn’t a knock on him. He sat for long stretches which would challenge anyone’s effectiveness. The overall point is we don’t know what he is yet. He could very well reach the level of the stud muffins. He could also be nothing more than an average pitcher.
Long story, short, there’s no Big 4. There could be one. There could be a Big 5. There’s a number of possibilities. However, right now it’s just a Big 3.