Jacob deGrom
When we talk about the Mets locking up their young pitching, the general consensus is Jacob deGrom is the person most likely to sign an extension before he hits free agency.
For his part, deGrom has said he is open to an extension. He is the oldest pitcher of the group. His agent isn’t Scott Boras. He’s not a local kid who grew up rooting for the Yankees. deGrom seems more affable than a Matt Harvey, so most assume he will re-sign with the Mets at a somewhat discounted rate. Well, today that notion flew out the window:
Statement from Brodie Van Wagenen, Jacob deGrom's agent. pic.twitter.com/6ARbCyaUeb
— Marc Carig (@MarcCarig) March 4, 2016
Let’s not overstate the meaning of this. deGrom thought he was worth more than the $607,500 he is going to be paid next year. He wasn’t going to agree to it, but under the Collective Bargaining Agreement, he had no recourse but to not sign the deal. As is their right, the Mets accepted deGrom’s decision and then told him he was going to be paid that amount whether he liked it or not.
This is not a strain in the relationship between deGrom and the Mets. The only thing that can be gleaned from this is deGrom is not willing to sign an under-value market contract. So what is his market?
The Mets will not have to pay deGrom next year until he hits arbitration as a Super Two player. Judging from Harvey’s first year of arbitration, he will be slated to receive around $4.325 million. If deGrom fights for much more than that, we will all know the type of fight the Mets will have when deGrom gets closer to free agency.
As it stands, deGrom will become a free agent two years after Harvey. When Harvey does become a free agent, it will be around the time the Mets could begin talks with deGrom on an extension to buy out his remaining years of arbitration and a couple of years of his free agency.
When deGrom does hit free agency, he will be 32 years old. If he signs two years prior to free agency, he will be 30 years old. We saw this offseason that 30 year old pitchers can receive massive free agent deals. David Price just signed a 7 year $217 million contract with an opt out after three years. For his part, Zack Greinke, 32, signed a six year $206 million contract. These two pitchers are being paid between $30 – $35 million per year.
Now, deGrom doesn’t have Price’s or Greinke’s credentials . . . yet. deGrom won the Rookie of the Year award in 2014. He was the star at the All Star Game in 2015. He finished Top 10 in Cy Young voting. He had a historic start to the postseason out-dueling Clayton Kershaw in Game One. He then beat the aforementioned Greinke in Game Five. If deGrom continues on this path, he will certainly be worth something in the ballpark of $30 million per year. deGrom’s actions today certainly points to him not wanting anything less than what he thinks he is worth.
Now, on an extension, the Mets can manipulate how much deGrom earns when and try to give him deferred money. However, it is fair to assume deGrom could command close to an average annual value of $30 million per year. As it stands, it appears the Mets will have between $35.5 – $49.5 million to spend on pitching and a bench.
Therefore, as it stands, if deGrom is going to insist on an extension at what he perceives as his value, as is his right, the Mets will have to expand the payroll beyond $140 million to lock up their pitching.
In honor of Dr. Seuss’ birthday, here is my adapted Mets Dr. Seuss story to read with your little Mets fan.
“One Strike, Two Strikes, Three Strikes, You’re Out”
One Strike. Two Strikes. Three Strikes. You’re out.
Yes. Some are curves. And some are fast. Some are slow. Some are from Matz.
Some are from Jake. With strikes batters take. Even if these are batters that rake. Why do batters who rake take pitches from Jake? I do not know. Maybe the pitch did break.
Some pitchers are thin. Colon is fat. The fat one can pounce off the mound with the agility of a cat.
From here to there, from here to there, strikeouts are everywhere.
Some strikes bring heat. The heat is neat and sends batters to their seat.
Oh me! Oh my! Oh me! Oh my! What a lot of strikes go by.
Some are two seamers. Some are four. Some are just mean and batters want no more.
How do they do it? I cannot say. But I bet the pitchers trained very hard along the way.
We see the pitches come. We see the pitches go. Some are fast. And some are slow. Some are high. And some are low. Not one of them is like another. Don’t ask us why. Go ask your mother.
Say! Look at the strikeouts? One, two, three . . . . How many strikeouts do I see? One, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine, ten. The pitcher has eleven. Eleven! That’s nothing new. The next pitcher will do it too!
Swing! Swing! Swing! You ever see such a thing? Not one swing hit anything. But we know the pitchers have the ball on the string. The string makes the ball do anything. So . . . if you like to Swing! Swing! at anything just swing at the ball on a string and the strikeouts will sting.
Who am I? My name is Thor. When I strike someone out. I want more. It is so good. It is so right. The batters strike out all day and night. And when I strike them out, Oh Dear! The batters have had it up to here!
We like the strikes. We like them in threes. Each strike sets up a hitter, you see. We like the strikes and this is why: the strikes makes outs and batters go bye-bye.
Hello there, Zack. How do you do? Tell me, tell how do you plan your attack? How did you do that? Was the pitch new? Please tell me Zack. I do not like this batter at all. A lot of strikes the umpire did call. A National, a Phillie, a Marlin, a Brave. Oh! He’s out! The strikeout was my fave!
Oh dear! Oh dear! The batter is in fear. How does the pitcher throw that sphere? Why did the crowd just cheer? It seems another strike out is near. Say look! The ball did reappear. But he is out. So you can cheer. Again, cheer for the strikeouts my dear.
The batter is old. The batter is cold. The pitcher has a pitch that is bold. The pitch is off. The batter will fold. The pitch is off. The batter did fold. The pitcher’s pitch was bold. The batter is cold. The batter is old. And now the story of the at bat has been told.
The batter took a look. His confidence is shook. On the pitch, he did look. On the pitch, he did look. It was a hook, and the confidence was shook. We saw him sit and give a look. He took a look at the hook and he shook. The hook did the deed for the pitch the batter just took. SO . . . what good is a look at the hook he just took?
The batters were out, and they’ll lose some sleep. But not even counting sheep will help them sleep. By the light of the moon, by light of the star, they struck out all night on pitches near and far. They would never walk. Sitting in the dugout they are.
I do not like this ump so well. All he does is yell, yell, yell. This game is turning into a route. When the Mets strike all the batters out. The batters are quiet as a mouse. All they can do now is rouse.
At our house, we have stands. Those stands are full of fans. With two strikes, the fans give the pitcher a hand. Hands from fans is very good. Have you heard a hand from fans? You should.
I like to play. How I like to play! So, if I may, I play everyday. In May, I play everyday. I play everyday in May.
It is fun to win if you win with a grin. I grin and win with pitchers who do everything. I grin wide, and the batters heads hang low, their swings were so bad, and too slow.
This batter I think will blink. His strikeout will be written in ink. He really does stink. He hates to stink, and stink, and stink. The stink makes his face turn pink. The pink from the stink is after a pitcher’s wink. The batter hates the stink, the pink, and the wink. SO . . . if you really stink, the pitcher will give you a wink, after the strikeout is written in ink.
Hop! Hop! Hop! The batter went plop. Familia likes to hop from batter flop to batter flop. Familia hops from the mound and then . . . Hop! Hop! The ball goes from the catcher to third and around. Familia likes to hop all day and night from mound to ground and ground to mound. Why does he hop, hop, hop? The rally did stop.
Shush! Shush! Shush! Shush! Groan! Groan! Groan! Groan! Pitchers have fans making hitters shush and groan. All batters who shush and groan will have better luck when they return home.
Who is this Met? Say! He doesn’t break a sweat. You may never yet met a Met, I bet, who will let a batter make him sweat.
Did you ever make a batter see red? Did you ever strike a batter out and send them to bed? Did you ever have a batter shaking his head wondering how? Well, Mets pitchers can do it. They know how. If you ever did, you should. These things are fun and fun is good.
Hello! Hello! Are you there? Hello? You’re up to bat, hello! I said hello. Can you hear me Joe? Oh no. I can not hear you at all. I did not hear your call at all. I was not paying attention; want to know why. I’m not willing to face a Mets pitcher. Good-bye!
From near to far, from here to there, the Mets are striking batters out everywhere. These young Mets are called aces. They strike out the batters each one faces. Their pitches are fast . . . so fast, they say, they strikeout batters everyday.
Who am I? I’m the Dark Knight. I throw the ball with great might. My slider has bite and the spin is real tight. When I pitch to strikeout a batter without much fight, I pitch the ball at the right height. Then I say, “You have no fight against a slider that will bite!” And I give batters great fright as they strike out all night. So . . . if your plight is my might all night, you might swing with fright at the pitches from the Dark Knight.
Our house is a place called Citi. During each game all we feel for batters is pity. Would opponents like to play against our pitchers in a game? Come down! There’s only one great pitching staff in town.
Look at we did in the park in the dark. We only win at home. A visitor’s chances of winning are stark. We will win at our house. The win totals will grow and grow. All of baseball will take notice. Our pitching prowess will you will soon know.
And now good night. It is time to sleep. Our pitchers will soon put you to sleep as the hole you’re in is too deep. Today is gone. Today was fun. Tomorrow is another one. Every day, from here to there, Mets pitchers are striking out batters everywhere.
Overall, it’s hard to imagine a scenario where Yoenis Cespedes‘ 2016 season isn’t a disappointment. He’s expected to break Barry Bonds (or Roger Maris‘) single season homerun record, Hack Wilson‘s single season RBI record, and find a cure for cancer. Yes, this is hyperbole, but it’s really not that far from what’s being expected of him.
After his incredible run last year, Cespedes has set the bar sky high. When he came to the Mets, he played the best baseball of his life. It was some of the best baseball anyone has ever seen. More than anything, this has been the reason why he’s had all the attention surrounding him. If Tim Teufel had these cars, it would be an amusing antidote, but it wouldn’t be the focus of each and every day this Spring.
Look, the Cespedes’ car thing has been terrific. It’s added some fun to Spring Training. We’re talking about this instead of Terry Collins leaving in Matt Harvey, David Wright‘s back, Jacob deGrom tweaking his groin, Alejandro De Aza‘s possible discontent, or Roger Bernadina having visa issues. No, the Mets are having a fun camp in large part due to Cespedes.
That’s is unless you’re John Harper of the Daily News:
Just as Mets fans were quick to turn on Harvey during the innings-limit controversy last season, citing his look-at-me tendencies, they’ll tire quickly of hearing about Cespedes’ lifestyle if he doesn’t put up big numbers.
Same goes for the clubhouse. Teammates will gladly accept Stsr behavior as long as it comes with star performance. And certainly Cespedes has earned plenty of slack in this area, having astonished his fellow Mets with his offensive exploits last summer after coming over from the Tigers on July 31.
Why are we preemptively chastising Cespedes? Keep in mind, this is the same writer that despite knowing all of the “issues” Cespedes presents, he implored the Mets to re-sign him. Now that he’s here, what’s the point of tearing him down?
Cespedes was everything the Mets thought he would be and more last year. So far, he has been everything we thought he would be this Spring Training. It makes sense that the guy with the neon yellow arm sleeve and the 52 medallion would have an epic car collection. It makes more sense that Cespedes was going to be the focal point of this team no matter what he did. Why not have some fun along the way?
Look, his season is bound to be a disappointment. His 162 game averages are “only” 30 homeruns and 103 RBI. That’s not going to be enough for some people. That’s a shame because fans wanted Cespedes here, and he wanted to be here. No matter what Cespedes does this season that should be celebrated. Instead, the Daily News is already finding ways to tear him down.
These preemptive attacks should be driven off a cliff.
Editor’s Note: this column first appeared on metsmerizedonline.com
What did you have for breakfast today?
Me? I had my usual bottle of Diet Coke or Diet Pepsi. I would’ve grabbed something on the way into work, but I didn’t have time to stop. I really could’ve gone for some waffles, but there’s no waffle iron at the office:
Is there anything he can't do?! @ynscspds making waffles for breakfast. #Mets #SpringTraining pic.twitter.com/bI11V9HtYF
— New York Mets (@Mets) February 22, 2016
I know what I’ll do. I’ll give someone the keys to my Lamborghini to pick up a waffle iron.
Just think about that for a second. Think about loving waffles so much you toss your keys for a car worth about $400,000 to make a Target run. Check that. You are so particular about your waffles that you’re willing to give the keys to that car to someone to get a round waffle maker because you don’t particularly like square waffles.
Theresa said went to 2 stores in Yoenis Cespedes @Lamborghini to find a round #Oster waffle maker #SpringTraining pic.twitter.com/QHbctWLcLz
— Ed Killer (@TCPalmEKiller) February 24, 2016
I have to admit that year two of Yoenis Cespedes has been terrific thus far. Once Cespedes has arrived he has been the constant topic of conversation.
We’re not talking about Terry Collins’ decision in Game 5 of the World Series. We didn’t freak out when Jacob deGrom tweaked his groin. There are a number of other issues that may have arisen that we’re not aware, or if we’re aware, we’re not focused upon them.
Instead the talk is Cespedes’ cars and his breakfast options. It’s keeping Spring Training light and fun thus far. Instead of discussing what went wrong last year or what issues this team may have this year, we’re focused upon Cespedes. That’s a good thing. He was here to be the focal point of the Mets. He’s doing that.
If I have one issue with Cespedes right now, it’s this – how could you not have a round waffle clause in your $27 million contract?
I remember back in 2000, the stories were that Bobby Valentine needed to make the World Series in order to keep his job. The amazing thing is he actually did it.
Just think about everything that had to happen that year for the Mets to make the World Series. First, the Mets had an overhaul of its outfield during the season. On Opening Day, the Mets outfield was, from left to right, Rickey Henderson–Darryl Hamilton–Derek Bell. At the end of the year, it was Benny Agbayani–Jay Payton-Derek Bell. Agbayani was only on the Opening Day roster because MLB allowed the team to have expanded rosters for their opening series in Japan.
On top of that, Todd Zeile was signed to replace John Olerud. Zeile had to become a first baseman after playing third for 10 years. Edgardo Alfonzo had to adapt from moving from the second spot in the lineup to the third spot. The Mets lost Rey Ordonez to injury and first replaced him with Melvin Mora for 96 games before trading him for the light hitting Mike Bordick. More or less, all of these moves worked. Then came the postseason.
A lot happened in the NLDS. After losing Game One, the Mets faced a quasi must win in Game Two. They were leading before Armando Benitez blew a save. I know. I’m shocked too. The Mets regained the lead, and they won the game when John Franco got a borderline third strike call against Barry Bonds. In Game Three, the Mets won on a Agbayani 13th inning walk off homerun. This was followed by Bobby Jones closing out the series on a one-hitter.
The Mets were then fortunate that the Braves lost to the Cardinals in the other NLDS series. The Mets tore through the Cardinals with new leadoff hitter Timo Perez. We saw all that luck run out in the World Series. We watched Zeile’s potential homerun land on top of the fence and bounce back. On the same play, Perez was thrown out at home. In the same game, Benitez blew the save. Unfortunately, there were no more heroics.
We saw this repeated in 2015. The epically bad Mets offense had to have its pitching hold things together until help came. Part of that required the Nationals to underperform while the Mets were fighting tooth and nail just to stay in the race.
In the NLDS, the Mets were on the verge of elimination. They weren’t eliminated because somehow, some way Jacob deGrom pitched six innings with absolutely nothing. The Mets then needed Daniel Murphy to have a game for the ages. He stole a base while no one was looking, and he hit a big homerun. It was part of an amazing run through the postseason for Murphy. Like in 2000, it came to a crashing halt in the World Series.
No matter how good your team is, it takes a lot of luck to win the World Series. Look at the 86 Mets.
In the NLCS, they barely outlasted the Astros. In Game Three, they needed a Lenny Dykstra two run homerun in the bottom of the ninth to win 6-5. In Game Five, Gary Carter hit a walk off single in the 12th to send the Mets back to Houston up 3-2. It was important because they didn’t want to face Mike Scott and his newfound abilities. With that pressure, they rallied from three down in the ninth, blew a 14th inning lead, and nearly blew a three run lead in the 16th inning.
Following this, the Mets quickly fell down 0-2 in the World Series before heading to Boston. After taking 2/3 in Boston, the Mets had to rally in the eighth just to tie Game Six. There are books that can be written not only about the 10th inning, but also Mookie Wilson‘s at bat.
First, they had to have a none on two out rally with each batter getting two strikes against them. For Calvin Schiraldi to even be in the position to meltdown, he had to be traded by the Mets to the Red Sox heading into the 1986 season. In return, the Mets got Bobby Ojeda, who won Game Three and started Game Six. John McNamara removed Schiraldi way too late and brought in Bob Stanley. His “wild pitch” in Mookie’s at bat allowed the tying run to score. You know the rest:
By the way, keep in mind Bill Buckner wasn’t pulled for a defensive replacement. Also, the Mets had to rally late from 3-0 deficit just to tie Game Seven.
We need to keep all of this is mind when setting expectations for the 2016 season. Terry Collins is right when he says World Series title or bust is unfair. We know way too much can happen between now and the World Series. Right now, the only goal should be winning the NL East. If the Mets do that, they have met their reasonable expectations. After that, the Mets are going to need a little luck to win the World Series.
Fortunately, the Mets are carrying a four leaf clover in the form of Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, and Jeurys Familia
In 2014, the Royals were 90 feet away from scoring the tying run of the World Series. Even though most agreed Alex Gordon made the right decision stopping at third, his decision became a topic of discussion when Madison Bumgarner got Salvador Perez to foul out to end the World Series.
The game tying run was forever stranded at third.
Fast forward to the 2015 World Series.
With the exception of Game 2, the Mets had a late lead in each game. They got to that point despite the Mets starting pitching not having one truly great game. In fact, the Mets starting pitching had been somewhat disappointing. With that said, they pitched well enough to put the Mets in position to win four of the five games.
Then the pitching showed up in Game 5. Matt Harvey shut down the Royals much in the same way Bumgarner had shut down the Royals. Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard were ready to go for Games 6 & 7. Before the ninth inning, the Royals had a dejected look in the dugout. Even if they were up 3-1 in the series, they were in real trouble. The Mets great starting pitching had awoken.
In the fateful ninth inning, Eric Hosmer was on third base. He was 90 feet away. Then this happened:
Hosmer had no business running there. None. He was the last out of the game. However, when 90 feet separated you from a World Series championship the previous year.
Yes, we heard it was about the scouting reports on Duda. The Royals scouts said the team should test Duda’s arm when they got the chance. However, that’s not what really happened. Hosmer described it somewhat differently:
We think about [losing the World Series] often. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, I think that’s kind of something we turn to mentally . . . . Everyone kind of relates to that and relates to how much that hurt.
***********
You’ve got to try to take a chance. With who was on the mound, Familia, hits are hard to come by, so, you know, you had to be aggressive. If it hadn’t worked out, I’d be answering some hard questions right now, but that’s the way we’ve been doing it all year. We’ve been taking chances, and found a way to get it done.
Hosmer admitted the end of the 2014 World Series impacted and drove the Royals throughout the 2015 season and World Series. The team was not going to let the tying run be stranded on third base. In 2015, the Royals strived to be more aggressive.
It’s now 2016, and now it’s the Mets turn to answer questions about why they lost the World Series. Naturally, one of the issues that arise is Lucas Duda’s throw:
Duda says the throw home in the World Series haunted him. Watched the play a few times on film. Still believes good throw gets him.
— Marc Carig (@MarcCarig) February 18, 2016
In reality, Duda’s throw didn’t cost the Mets the World Series. Overall, it was their defense. You can pinpoint to problems in each and every game the Mets lost.
The Mets have to let this fuel them in 2016 much in the same way the Royals were fueled by the way they lost in the 2014 World Series. They need to use it to be better defensively, to pay better attention to detail in the field. If the Mets do this, they can do what the Royals did. They can return to the World Series.
And when they return chances are Lucas Duda makes that throw home helping thereby helping the Mets win the 2016 World Series.
One of the many topics of this offseason has been about how all the Mets players love the team and how they want to stay here. Jacob deGrom said he would sign an extension. Now, it’s Matt Harvey‘s turn:
Matt Harvey said extension talk has never come up with the #Mets, but he hasn't "shied away" from it.
— Adam Rubin (@AdamRubinMedia) February 15, 2016
No, it’s not exactly a ringing endorsement. However, to me it’s a clear sign that he really is willing to sign an extension. Following Harvey’s career, there is no reason to believe otherwise.
Long before Harvey was drafted and became a part of the Mets organization, he was drafted by the Angels right out of high school. His association with Scott Boras raised questions about his signability. It caused him to slip to the third round. He informed the Angeld he would not sign unless he had a $2 million signing bonus. He would not accept $1.99 million. Accordingly, he would not accept the $1 million the Angels ultimately offered. Harvey rejected it despite his father telling him to take it, and he enrolled at the University of North Carolina.
Reading this, you may be led to believe that Harvey is just doing whatever Boras tells him to do. That premise should’ve been disproven after last year.
In 2012, Stephen Strasburg returned from Tommy John surgery, and he was famously shut down prior to the postseason. That decision was made when Scott Boras and GM Mike Rizzo agreed to Strasburg’s inning limits. Once Strasburg hit those limits, he was shut down. Boras tried to similarly intervene with Harvey.
As the timeline shows, Boras tried to get the Mets to limit Harvey to 180 innings. The main hurdle to that was it wasn’t what Harvey wanted to do. Instead of working with Sandy Alderson and Scott Boras, Harvey talked with his manager. It was Harvey and Terry Collins together that decided what Harvey needed to do. Harvey pitched more in September than the Mets, or Boras for that matter, thought he would pitch.
For better or worse, Harvey has always been in charge of his own career. It seems that on the field, he wants to compete at the highest level. For these actions, Harvey wants to be paid what he thinks he’s worth and not one penny less. That’s why Boras is his agent. He hired the guy who has a reputation of getting teams to pony up top dollar for the players he represents.
As noted by Adam Rubin today in his Morning Briefing, the belief that Boras’ clients don’t sign extensions prior to their hitting free agency is not entirely true. As Rubin notes, twenty-four of Boras’ clients have signed extensions with their teams before reaching free agency. Ironically, one of them was Jered Weaver, who signed an extension with the Angels; the same Angels who couldn’t find an extra million to sign Harvey.
So yes, it’s entirely possible the Mets can sign Harvey to an extension prior to his hitting free agency. Prior to this offseason, I would’ve been extremely pessimistic about the possibilities. However, this offseason the Mets re-signed Yoenis Cespedes thereby proving anything is possible.
I don’t know the Mets chances of re-signing Harvey. The only thing I do know is that Harvey is not going to accept one penny less than what he thinks he’s worth no matter what his family or his agent says.
The general consensus as to why Hall of Famer Walter Johnson was so dominant was the saying, “You can’t hit what you can’t see.” In analyzing MLB’s Statcast data, that saying could now be applied to the young New York Mets pitching staff.
As the article notes, the Mets threw more pitches than any other team over 95 MPH. Nearly a thousand more. The main reason for this was the trio of Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, and Noah Syndergaard. Harvey’s two-seamer averaged 95.4, and his four seamer averaged 95.3. deGrom’s two seamer averaged 95.6, and his four seamer averaged 96.0. As all Mets fans know, Syndergaard led the pack. His two seamer averaged 98.3, and his four seamer averaged 98.4. Amongst starting pitchers Symdergaard threw the fastest.
This trio of hard throwing righties kept the Mets afloat in 2015 while the offense spluttered. When the team then assembled a major league capable offense, these pitchers led the Mets to the World Series. In 2016, it’s only going to get better.
Last year, the Mets had innings limits, skipped starts, and at times, six man rotations. Syndergaard wasn’t called up until May. In 2016, the Mets have said innings limits and the like will not be an issue. As such, all three of the Mets aces should be expected to make 32 starts and throw over 200 innings. This means more 95+ MPH fastballs. Again, batters will have trouble hitting the pitches they can’t see.
If that wasn’t enough, it gets even better. Steven Matz should start the year in the rotation. According to Brooks Baseball, Matz’s fastball averaged 94.57 MPH. Prior to Matz’s lat injury, his fastball averaged 94.90 MPH. With a full season of a healthy Matz, the Mets will further increase the amount of fastballs throw over 95 MPH.
In addition to a full season of Matz, the Mets can expect a half a season of Zack Wheeler. In Wheeler’s career, his four seamer averaged 95.87 MPH, and his sinker averaged 95.50 MPH. All told, upon Wheeler’s return, the Mets will feature a starting rotation that has five pitchers bringing the heat at over 95 MPH. That is just incredible.
However, why does it matter? Well, as FiveThirtyEight showed last year, it is just harder to hit a fastball that’s thrown 95 MPH and above. In total, batters swung and missed at pitches thrown this fast 22.8% of the time. That’s about 5-10% more frequent than pitches thrown slower.
More importantly, as we saw in last year’s NLCS, the Cubs are more likely to swing and miss at these pitches than any other team in baseball. Heading into the 2016 season, it appears that yet again it will be the Cubs standing in the Mets way. The pitching staff the Mets have constructed is not only effective against the Cubs, but also every single team in baseball.
The Mets 2016 pitching staff is the single best argument why any team in baseball will go to and win the World Series. The Mets young starters brought the heat last year. Next year will be more of the same.
Good luck to the National League next year because you can’t hit what you can’t see.
Editor’s Note: this article first appeared on metsmerizedonline.com
Last year, the Mets were carried by their pitching. It helped them sustain an anemic offense until the Mets got healthy and made trades. It helped carry them to the World Series. It’s the promise for the future.
That future first comes into question around 2019. That is the year that Matt Harvey becomes a free agent. Zack Wheeler could become a free agent the same year or the subsequent year. Two years later Jacob deGrom becomes a free agent. After that, the Mets will have to address the free agent case of Noah Syndergaard and Steven Matz. Naturally, this prompts the discussion of who the Mets should extend and when they should do it.
When these discussions take place, I find everyone to be extremely short-sided. Yes, it’s important to make a decision on the Mets starters, especially on Harvey, deGrom, and Syndergaard. However, I find that these discussions ignore Jeurys Familia. Like Harvey, Familia will be a free agent in 2019.
Familia was an exceedingly important part of the 2015 Mets. He was the stabilizing force at the back-end of a beleaguered bullpen. During 2015, Familia had the fifth most appearances. Of players who were strictly relievers, he had the third most innings pitched. He lead the league in games finished. He tied the Mets single season record for saves.
The advanced statistics also loved Familia’s 2015 season. He had an ERA+ of 200, which is astounding. It was the best amongst Mets pitchers. In fact, it’s a tick below Mariano Rivera‘s career 205 mark, which is the best in major league history. Familia’s FIP was 2.74, which, unsurprisingly, rates him as an excellent pitcher. Mariano’s career mark was 2.76. In essence, Familia’s 2015 was Riveraesque.
Keep in mind, Collins initially deployed Familia like Rivera. When it came time to close out the NLDS, Familia pitched two shutout innings. In the whole postseason, Familia had 12 appearances, and of those 12 appearances, he pitched more than one inning five times. He pitched 14.2 innings in those 12 appearances. Yes, he blew three saves in the World Series, but he only allowed one earned run the entire postseason. In reality, the blown saves were not on Familia but the Mets team as a whole.
Its important to lock-up some starting pitchers. If Harvey, deGrom, or Syndergaard leave, the Mets have other starters to keep having a strong rotation. If Familia were to leave, the Mets do not appear to have another reliever to take Familia’s spot. This makes extending Familia absolutely imperative.
So when it comes down to which Mets pitcher I would extend first, my answer is Jeurys Familia.
Editor’s Note: this article also appeared on metsmerizedonline.com
Groundhog Day pretty well sums up what it’s been like being a Mets fan since the Madoff scandal a/k/a the Wilponzi Scandal. It was nothing but a series of cost-cutting measures and insulting fans intelligence telling them they would spend if fans came to the park to watch what was a pretty terrible product.
Sandy Alderson was running around like Ned Ryerson . . . BING! . . . telling us about the D.J. Carrascos and Shaun Marcums of the baseball world inviting us to come down to Citi Field. Mets fans ran away tripping into a puddle while everyone seemed to laugh at us. We went about every offseason saying, “Well, the Mets won’t spend money . . . Again.”
Seriously, nothing could go right. Even when something good happened, like Matt Harvey‘s 2013 season, we closed our eyes and *poof* it was all over. The next season rolled around with no Harvey. No hope. Just the same old song with the same old stinging cold shower trying to wash the pain away of another lost season.
BING! We’re all wet and embarrassed again. We took off from Citi Field being told, “Don’t drive angry. Don’t drive angry!”
Yet, everyday things got better. The Mets made shrewd trades for the future. In 2015, they made in-season trades to improve the team. Jacob deGrom won the Rookie of the Year. Harvey was coming back from Tommy John Surgery. Noah Syndergaard fulfilled his promise. The Mets actually made in-season trades to get better. Like Phil Connors wielding a chainsaw, things were taking shape.
After the Mets lost the World Series, it seemed like the Mets fans were going to go to sleep and all the good will gone the way of Alejandro De Aza. Then Jeff Wilpon crawled out of his hole with enough money to re-sign Yoenis Cespedes.
It’s a new day for the Mets. They’re going to go and give it their all to win the World Series. It’s a new feeling in the – BING! – Sandy Alderson Era. Why it’s almost like being in love.