Daniel Murphy
I’m not calling this 2.0. To me that would indicate that I will make a number of changes, but I wanted to show you my work product. There’s nothing wrong with that, but that’s not my intention when I share my projections.
However, there has been another major development with Steven Matz‘s back. As I said yesterday, I was not going to trust he was going to pitch until he actually pitches.
Catchers
1. Travis d’Arnaud
2. Kevin Plawecki
Infielders
3. Lucas Duda
4. Daniel Murphy
5. Kelly Johnson
6. David Wright
7. Ruben Tejada
8. Wilmer Flores
Outfielders
9. Michael Conforto
10. Michael Cuddyer
11. Yoenis Cespedes
12. Juan Lagares
13. Curtis Granderson
Pinch Runner
14. Eric Young, Jr.
Starting Pitchers
15. Jacob deGrom
16. Noah Syndergaard
17. Matt Harvey
18. Bartolo Colon
Relief Pitchers
19. Jeurys Familia
20. Addison Reed
21. Tyler Clippard
22. Hansel Robles
23. Jon Niese
24. Sean Gilmartin
25. Erik Goeddel
As you can see, the only change I made between the projections was exchanging Matz for Goeddel. I chose Goeddel because he’s been pretty good lately, and he can generate strikeouts with his splitter.
I still think there are two other players under consideration: Kirk Nieuwenhuis and Dilson Herrera. Kirk has been good lately, has some power, can run, and can play all three OF positions. However, since he’s a left handed bat going into a series with a lot of LHP, I don’t think the Mets will put him on the roster.
I think Dilson is getting consideration because he’s a right handed bat and definitively the team’s best defensive second baseman. With Flores’ back injury, Herrera is a definite possibility. What hurts him most is he only plays 2B. As I said in another post, the presence of Murphy and Johnson could alleviate those concerns.
However, for right now, I think the Mets give EY the edge, especially because he’s a Terry Collins favorite. If anything else happens, I’ll put out another revised projection.
The Mets have already begun the process of putting together the NLDS roster. The Mets are now starting to address Eric Young, Jr.:
Terry said Eric Young is "heavily" in the mix for a postseason spot, but pointed out it's much easier for AL teams to bring specific PR.
— Matt Ehalt (@MattEhalt) September 30, 2015
Essentially, the Mets would like to add him and what he brings, but they are afraid to put him on the roster. The reason is right now he is viewed as a nothing more than a pinch runner. On an NL roster that is limiting with the need to pinch hit for a pitcher and/or double switch to help get multiple innings from a reliever. EY is no longer a good hitter (if he ever was one), but he can play the OF and 2B.
Before Juan Uribe‘s back injury, I assumed he would be on the roster leaving no room for EY. However, Uribe is hurt, so choices need to be made.
The first option is Kirk Nieuwenhuis. He doesn’t have EY’s speed, but he can run. He can play all three defensive outfield positions well, which is important with Yoenis Cespedes‘ recent injury. He has some if homeruns, but overall he has not hit well this year. The Dodgers lefty pitchers presents a problem for Nieuwenhuis, who is hitting lefties .000/.100/.000. That’s right. He has no hits against a lefty this year.
The next option option would be Eric Campbell. Campbell plays each infield position, which could be important with Wilmer Flores‘ recent back troubles. He can also play both corner OF spots, and he can be an emergency catcher. For all the versatility he has around the field defensively, he is very limited offensively. Campbell is hitting .210/.318/.302. There’s no way to spin this even with him hitting the ball hard.
So, if the Mets are looking for offense, they could look at Dilson Herrera. He’s still only 21 years old, but he shows a lot of promise at the plate. Unfortunately, his .218/.320/.379 triple slash line makes him a better offensive weapon than EY, Kirk, and Campbell. He hadn’t played much since his call-up, but he did have quite the game in Cincinnati last week going 3-4 with a walk, two runs, two RBIs, and a homerun.
The problem with Herrera is versatility. He’s only played 2B. If you’re on the bench, you may be needed to play somewhere other than where you’re most comfortable. However, that issue may be assuaged with Daniel Murphy‘s and Kelly Johnson‘s versatility.
I’m not sure which direction the Mets are going on now. Each choice has problems of its own. I don’t dven know which way I would go right now. What I do know is that this may be the biggest decision the Mets had since getting Cespedes.
I hope this choice will work out just as well.
Look, this is Sandy Alderson’s team. He decided to keep the players he kept and trade the players he traded. He pulled off the trades and signed the free agents. However, he was able to do a lot of what he did because he was left with good players after Omar Minaya was terminated.
Here are the players in the 40 man roster who have a link to Omar Minaya (asterisked players are players obtained with players combined by Minaya and Alderson):
Jerry Blevins – obtained for 2010 draft pick Matt den Dekker.
Eric Campbell – 2008 draft pick.
Darrell Ceciliani – 2009 draft pick.
Travis d’Arnaud – part of the R.A. Dickey trade. Dickey was a free agent signing. Josh Thole was a 2005 draft pick. Mike Nickeas was initially obtained by trade in 2006.
Jacob deGrom – 2010 draft pick.
Lucas Duda – 2007 draft pick.
Jeurys Familia – 2007 amateur free agent signing.
Wilmer Flores – 2007 amateur free agent signing.
Erik Goeddel – 2010 draft pick.
Matt Harvey – 2010 draft pick
Dilson Herrera* – part of Marlon Byrd/John Buck trade. Buck was part of the Dickey trade (see d’Arnaud).
Juan Lagares – 2006 amateur free agent signing.
Steven Matz – 2009 draft pick.
Jenrry Mejia – 2007 amateur free agent signing.
Akeel Morris -2010 draft pick.
Daniel Murphy – 2006 draft pick.
Bobby Parnell – 2005 draft pick.
Addison Reed* – obtained in exchange for Matt Koch and Miller Diaz (signed by Mets in 2009).
Hansel Robles – 2008 amateur free agent.
Noah Syndergaard – part of Dickey trade (see d’Arnaud).
Ruben Tejada – 2006 amateur free agent.
Again, these players are in the roster because Alderson kept them. The decision of who to keep and trade is important. That is what makes them Alderson’s players and team. Additionally, while It was Alderson that hired Terry Collins, it was Minaya who brought him into the Mets organization.
However, it is important to truly acknowledge Minaya’s role, especially when he has been unfairlyand wrongly marginalized.
You see I was on the same Jet Blue flight as Omar Minaya. The photo with this post was Minaya and me in the terminal before the flight. He was accessible to Mets fans who wanted to shake his hand and take a picture. No one, and I mean no one, had the “courage” to mock him on the flight.
Additionally, this should dispel the notion that Minaya left the Mets with a depleted farm system. On the contrary, he built a strong farm system that helped make up this team. Minaya had his faults, and he probably deserved to be fired when he was. That doesn’t mean we should ignore his work.
It doesn’t mean that we shouldn’t extend our gratitude to him for what he left behind.
Now that the Mets have clinched the NL East, the time is fast approaching to set the NLDS roster. Keep in mind, this is for the NLDS only. The Mets can the roster if they advance to the NLCS.
I’ve made some changes to my prior analysis. The reason is due to injuries to players like Juan Uribe. Another reason was the possibility that Jon Niese and Bartolo Colon may move to the bullpen.
Note, this is not what I would do, but rather, what I think the Mets will do. I am taking into consideration the Dodgers lefty heavy starting rotation and lineup. Without further ado, here’s my best guess:
Catchers
Infielders
3. Lucas Duda
6. David Wright
7. Ruben Tejada
Outfielders
10. Michael Cuddyer
11. Yoenis Cespedes
12. Juan Lagares
Pinch Runner
14. Eric Young, Jr.
Rotation
15. Matt Harvey
16. Jacob deGrom
17. Noah Syndergaard
18. Steven Matz
Bullpen
19. Jeurys Familia
20. Tyler Clippard
21. Addison Reed
22. Hansel Robles
23. Sean Gilmartin
24. Jon Niese
25. Bartolo Colon
I’m not 100% confident in this. I could see Uribe getting healthy enough to play knocking EY, Lagares, or Johnson out of the lineup. With all the lefties, I could see Eric Campbell or Dilson Herrera (3-4 with a walk, a homer, two runs, and a two RBIs on Sunday) making the team as well.
I also think there is real competition and consideration for the last three bullpen spots. Erik Goeddel has been great all year (when healthy). Carlos Torres is a Terry Collins’ favorite, who may make the team if healthy. Logan Verrett has made his car all year bouncing between starting and reliever. If Colon takes Matz’s spot in the rotation, there will be more bullpen spots because the Mets won’t put Matz in the bullpen.
No matter who is on the roster I’m excited for the playoffs again. Lets Go Mets!
When the Mets clinched today, the person I wanted at my side to celebrate was my son. He means more to me than anything. He must’ve known it was a big game because even though I can never get him in a hat, he wore one today:
After celebrating with this little guy, I then talked to my Dad, who I knew was dying to talk to the two of us. Through the magic of FaceTime, we could celebrate together. It was great to see the Mets players do the same:
— SNY (@SNYtv) September 26, 2015
— SNY (@SNYtv) September 26, 2015
It was especially heartwarming to see Daniel Murphy out there because of all he went through when his child was first born. He was also the guy that gave my son a ball before he was born.
It was also great to see Jon Niese out there with his child as my post about him was the first time my blog was noticed. I smiled when I was on FaceTime with my Dad because I remembered this was the same technology that allowed Niese to let his child being born. My grin was a little wider when I remembered the Mets are in the playoffs. It gets bigger each time I think of it.
However, that wasn’t the highlight of my day. The highlight was when my son counted to 10 with me for the first time.
It’s funny. Never before did I think the Mets in the playoffs would be a distant second to me. I’m not any less of a fan than I used to be. I’m probably a bigger fan.
The difference between now and then is I’m a Mets Daddy.
Terry Collins is 100% correct that you worry about getting to the playoffs, and then you let the chips fall where they may. I know I’m in the minority on this, but I don’t want the Mets fighting for homefield in the NLDS.
The first reason is the rotation. We may not know who the fourth starter is, but we do know that Jacob deGrom, Matt Harvey, and Noah Syndergaard will get starts. We also know Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke will start Games 1 & 2. With Syndergaard’s home/road splits, I don’t want the Mets to have a reason to start Thor in Game 2 to keep him at Citi Field over Harvey. I like the idea of coming home and having a huge edge in the pitching matchup with Thor at home.
The second reason is the Mets offense. Kershaw and Greinke are hard enough to hit. I know the Mets will be hitting in the shadows at Dodger Stadium, but the Mets hitters are better on the road. Yoenis Cespedes hits .220/.283/.484 at Citi Field. Daniel Murphy is hitting .256/.296/.429. Curtis Granderson is hitting .236/.331/.415 (although his Dodger Stadium numbers are similar). Travis d’Arnaud is .252/.320/.461. The Mets offense travels better. Let the have a better shot at getting going early in the playoffs than struggle at home.
The final and most important reason is the importance of Games 3 & 4. The Mets would be coming home either down 0-2, tied 1-1, or up 2-0. If you’re down 0-2, there’s no place you’d rather be at home to stave off elimination. You’d also rather be home tied so you have a shot to go up 2-1 in front of a rabid fan base. If the Mets come home up 2-0, after beating Kershaw and Greinke, series over.
Therefore, I don’t think homefield advantage is something you don’t want to get. Just get the team healthy and ready for the NLDS.
The most important part of today’s game was Steven Matz‘s start because you want to determine if he should start in the NLDS.
Tonight, there was some good and some bad. Matz struck out a career high eight batters and looked strong early. However, he couldn’t hold onto a 3-1 lead. He only lasted 5.2 innings. He left the game with the game tied at 3-3.
Offensively, it seems the Mets bats woke up. It could’ve been just clearing their heads. It could’ve been seeing the Nationals losing as they took the field. It could’ve been the difference between Citi Field and The Great American Ballpark. Whatever it was, the Mets put six runs on the board.
Most impressively, the team responded to losing the lead by scoring three in the seventh. It started with Curtis Granderson scoring on a Daniel Murphy triple. This was followed by a Yoenis Cespedes RBI single, and a Lucas Duda RBI double, off a lefty to boot.
Itwas an impressive night for Murphy, Cespedes, and Duda. Murphy went 3-5, with a double, a triple, two runs scored, and the game winning RBI. Cespedes was 2-4 with a run and two RBI. Duda was 2-3 with 2 doubles, a walk, and two RBI.
The bullpen was solid with Erik Goeddel getting the win. Terry Collins smartly used Addison Reed in the seventh with the top of the Reds lineup due up. Hansel Robles allowed a homerun (more on that later). Jeurys Familia rebounded from last night to record his 42nd save preserving the Mets 6-4 win.
Getting back to Robles, there was an incident prior to the Jay Bruce homerun. During the at bat, Robles of course tried to quick pitch him since the bases were empty. The home plate umpire appeared to yell at him prompting Collins to come out of the dugout. Of course, Angel Hernandez tried to intervene from first base even though the home plate umpire and crew chief was there.
After everything, Robles allows the home run. With Robles’ quick pitch tendencies, this issue will arise again in the playoffs. If Robles wants to continue to quick pitch, he’s going to need to respond better.
On the bright side, this is going to be an issue because the Mets are going to go to the playoffs.
If nothing else, Daniel Murphy keeps things interesting. He’s just as likely to make an amazing play as he is to make a routine play look like an adventure. He will hit a double and then get lost on the way to third.
Today was no exception. In the first inning, he singled setting up first and second with no out. After a Yoenis Cespedes single and a Lucas Duda popout, Travis d’Arnaud hit into the routine 5-4-6 double play. It wasn’t really routine, it was a classic Murphy TOOBLAN. Murphy assumed the play was over and he got caught between second and third. He got burned so bad, he had to apply Chapstick. No, that’s not a joke. He literally applied Chapstick after the play.
Since it wasn’t a continuation play, the run counted giving the Mets a 1-0 lead. In the second, the lead would expand to 2-0 on a Michael Conforto opposite field homerun. Actually, it wasn’t a Conforto homerun, it was a:
https://twitter.com/keithlaw/status/646107589948907520
Murphy would redeem himself for killing the first inning rally by hitting a two RBI double in the seventh scoring the pinch running Eric Young, Jr. (8 runs scored, no hits for the Mets) and Curtis Granderson (1-3, two walks, and two runs scored). Once again Granderson was a catalyst. Once again Murphy giveth and Murphy taketh.
On the pitching side, Jon Niese pitched well after eight days of rest. He got a number of groundballs. His final line was six innings, three hits, two walks, and two strikeouts. Some questioned pulling him after six innings and 88 pitches, but I agree with Terry Collins. He’s been so bad lately that you get him out of there whe he’s feeling good, and he gave you enough depth.
The 7-8-9 of Addison Reed–Tyler Clippard–Jeurys Familia combined to preserve the 4-0 win. Nothing like a bad Braves team and some Chapstick to smooth over the rough stretch and help get the Mets a win.
Other than a win, if you set forth what you wanted from tonight’s game, it would be a strong start from Steven Matz and for Lucas Duda to get back on track. Well done and done.
It didn’t start great for Matz. He was amped up in the first inning, and he wasn’t locating. He worked around a leadoff walk and single to Carlos Beltran (seriously why was he booed), and only allowed one run on a sac fly. He got through six innings with the scored tied at 1-1. His final line was six innings, seven hits, one walk, four strikeouts, and one earned.
The score was tied at 1-1 when he left because Duda hit a homerun in the second. He looked back on track tonight going 2-4 with a run, an RBI, a double, and a homerun. Matz would get the win because Daniel Murphy would hit a go-ahead homerun in the bottom of the sixth. Murphy had a great night going 2-4 with a homerun and a triple (slight misplay by Jacoby Elssbury).
Overall, four of the Mets five runs came via homerun. The last homerun was a two run pinch hit homerun by Juan Uribe in the seventh. You could say his ball went,”Bye, Bye, Bye.”
Duda. Murphy. Uribe. GIF of all three #Mets homers tonight: pic.twitter.com/zyeeq4k3Fi
— Anthony DiComo (@AnthonyDiComo) September 19, 2015
The fifth run would save scored in the eighth on a wild pitch. The run was scored by Eric Young, Jr., who pinch ran for Murphy after his triple in the eighth. EY now has no hits and seven runs scored for the Mets.
The bullpen kept the lead even with Tyler Clippard out with back problems. Hansel Robles pitched a scoreless seventh, which included getting a lefty out. Addison Reed was terrific in the eighth showing he’s ready for the playoffs. Even without the save opportunity in a 5-1 game, Jeurys Familia came on in the ninth.
It was an adventure. He loaded the bases with one out. That included an infield basehit off of his knee. He got Brett Gardner to fly out to left, and the runner did not try to run on Yoenis Cespedes‘ arm. He was in left because Juan Lagares came in for defense. Familia then struck out Chase Headley to preserve the 5-1 win.
I think Matz made his case to pitch in the playoffs. Duda got back on track. Murphy remained clutch. The Mets beat a team that needed to win tonight. The Mets aren’t collapsing.
They’re getting ready for the playoffs.