Bartolo Colon
This is a huge start for Steven Matz. As a local kid from Long Island, it’s his opportunity to stand up and proclaim, this is the Mets town. It’s time for a man named Steven to stand up and declare:
In all seriousness, Matz has something more important to stake his claim – a postseason roster spot. Right now the postseason rotation is still in flux. It seems the only one assured of a spot is Jacob deGrom.
Matt Harvey and Noah Syndergaard both have innings limit issues. Jon Niese has been utterly ineffective. Bartolo Colon has beaten up on the NL East and sub-.500 teams. Logan Verrett is nothing more than a spot starter. There’s an opening for Matz, and frankly a left handed starter, with the Dodgers coming up in the NLDS.
The Dodgers feature a number of big left handed bats with Adrian Gonzalez, Joc Pederson, Andre Ethier, and Chase Utley, who you know is chomping at the bit to beat the Mets again. It would be great if the Mets could throw a lefty starter out there to neutralize those bats. It’s all the more important without a lefty in the bullpen. Niese has shown it shouldn’t be him.
This will be the last Mets opponent over .500 until the last series of the season. The Yankees are in a dog fight in the AL East and Wild Card. They need the series a lot more than the Mets do. Most likely, he will face Jacoby Ellsbury, Brett Gardner, and Greg Bird. It’s a good primer.
Matz needs to step up. He needs to go out there tonight and pitch like the ace the Mets fans think he is. I want to see his grandfather celebrating all game long. If we see it, it means Matz is pitching well. It means he’s securing a postseason start. It means the Mets will have a better chance of winning the NLDS.
It may lead further towards the Mets taking back New York. It may see mad, but it may become Steven’s Island.
Look, I can write a big long post about all the Mets failures tonight from the all righty lineup to being shut out to losing 2 of 3 to the Marlins again. I’m not going to do that.
It was a 6-0 loss. Just because you lose to the Marlins, it doesn’t mean it’s 2007 all over again. I know Mets fans were upset over Eric Campbell playing. The lefties need a day off. It’s the benefit of having a large lead.
If you want to find something to be upset about, be upset about the regulars not contributing against a left-handed pitcher. The lineup still had David Wright, Yoenis Cespedes, Travis d’Arnaud, and Wilmer Flores [standing ovation]. The lineup accumulated three hits. Two from Wright and one from Michael Cuddyer. In the NLDS, the Mets will see better lefties than Adam Conley in Clayton Kershaw and Alex Wood.
So yes, Bartolo Colon gave up two solo homeruns (and one other earned run) and Tyler Clippard gave up one homerun himself. The rest of the bullpen, Hansel Robles aside, was ineffective. All of this creates a loss, not a collapse.
The Mets play quasi-meaningful games against the Yankees this weekend. If the Mets throw out some clunkers then, I’ll consider getting nervous. Right now, I’m just happy the Mets are getting the slumps out if the way against the Marlins in games that do not matter.
Like his past few starts, this game was all about Bartolo Colon clobbering the NL East. He’s now 13-1 against the NL East with a 2.52. He had a 31 inning scoreless streak that surpassed Warren Spahn‘s record for most consecutive shut out innings for a 42 year old. It was also fell 1.2 innings short of R. A. Dickey‘s club record.
Colon even asserted his dominance at the plate. After Kelly Johnson and Juan Uribe scored on a Kevin Plawecki 4th inning RBI double, Colon would single him home. Colin’s dominance and scoreless streak would end in the seventh when he allowed two runs. With two outs, he was lifted for Dario Alvarez, who did his job as a LOOGY, and got the lefty Nick Markakis out.
Hansel Robles was out attending to family matters. Tyler Clippard and Jeurys Familia were given the day off due to their usage in the Washington series. As such, Alvarez came back out for the eighth, and he pitched a 1-2-3 inning, which included getting Freddie Freeman out. It was a great job by him.
It looked like Addison Reed was going to get the save opportunity until Uribe hit a two run double in the ninth. Reed still came on and secuted the 7-2 win.
Colon’s battery mate, Plawecki, also had a good game. He went 1-3 with a double, a walk, and three RBIs, including an insurance run in the eighth. Overall, playing backups like Uribe, Johnson, and Plawecki allowed the Mets to rest Travis d’Arnaud, Daniel Murphy and his quad, and David Wright and his back.
That’s the benefit of building a big lead. You get to rest some guys who need rest. When you’re really good, you win those games, even when Yoenis Cespedes finally has an 0-fer. You win these games even with a two and a half hour rain delay and a flooded dugout:
https://twitter.com/kplawecki26/status/642113011398873088
Before moving along to the next game, our best wishes to Dan Warthen, who was not at the game because he had to go to the hospital with heart problems. I hope he gets better, and he comes back to enjoy this ride.
After last night’s big homerun, I wanted to write a post about Kirk Nieuwenhuis‘ chances of making the postseason roster. I then realized such conversation is premature without first discussing who is definitely going to be on the roster, and what the roster needs will be.
Please note this list assumes all injured players will be healed and ready for the playoffs. And yes, I’m taking Matt Harvey at his word. So without further ado, here’s my best approximation:
Position Players
- Travis d’Arnaud
- Kevin Plawecki
- Lucas Duda
- Wilmer Flores
- Daniel Murphy
- Ruben Tejada
- Juan Uribe
- David Wright
- Kelly Johnson
- Yoenis Cespedes
- Michael Cuddyer
- Curtis Granderson
- Juan Lagares
- Michael Conforto
Pitchers
- Matt Harvey
- Jacob deGrom
- Bartolo Colon
- Noah Syndergaard
- Jeurys Familia
- Tyler Clippard
- Addison Reed
- Hansel Robles
While typically an MLB team carries 12 pitchers, that number is usually reduced to 11 relievers. That means there’s three spots open for pitchers like Sean Gilmartin, Dario Alvarez, Carlos Torres (if healthy), Erik Goeddel, Logan Verrett, Jon Niese, and of course Steven Matz. Notice, I did not put Bobby Parnell and Eric O’Flaherty on the list. If all the position players make the list, there’s only room for 11 pitchers anyway.
With an injury, like Cuddyer’s, the decision will come down between Nieuwenhuis, Eric Young, Jr., and yes, Eric Campbell.
The Mets have tough decisions to make. They have about a month of tryouts. So far, Gilmartin, Alvarez, and Nieuwenhuis have made their cases. Other players have their opportunities as well. It’s nice having this conversation instead of talking about next year.
As I’ve said before, it seems like the Mets are having auditions for a spot on the postseason roster. Jon Niese has already been put on warning that his start against the Nationals will be the biggest start of his career.
That’s not hyperbole. Right now, Niese is probably the Mets worst starting pitching option. While he’s been shrinking, his teammates have been stepping up. On Saturday, Bartolo Colon became the oldest Mets pitcher to have a complete game shut out. Noah Syndergaard pitched a good game saving the bullpen and giving the Mets a chance to win. Steven Matz had a strong start until leaving the game with a blister.
As the other starters are stepping up, Niese is shrinking from the moment. Hopefully, this has nothing to do with his shoulder. The Mets haven’t done him any favors by putting him up against Max Scherzer and a rejuvenated Nationals lineup. It’s the perfect time to step up.
The Mets fans are on the fence right now (not me). They’re invoking 2007 and 2008. It’s like they need an exorcism to prove those demons are gone. Niese probably needs one as well. He made his first three career starts in 2008, all in September. He went 1-1 with a 7.07 ERA and a 2.000 WHIP in 14.0 innings. In his last five starts, he has a 7.06 ERA and a 1.535 WHIP.
He’s almost as bad this year as we was in 2008. We’ve seen the meltdowns with him when something doesn’t go right. The pressure gets to him. It seems like the pressure of a pennant race also gets to him. He has time to prove me wrong. I want him to prove me wrong.
The Mets won’t take him out of the rotation in the regular season, especially with the recent drama. However, if he keeps this up, he’s out of the rotation in October. It’ll be amazing to see the man born on the day the Mets last won the World Series not be on the postseason roster.
If Niese wants to be there in October, it starts today.
There’s a saying in the NFL that if you have two QBs, you really don’t have a QB. The principal us that if you truly have a good QB, there’s no need for a QB competition. As a Giants fan, I remember the Dave Brown/Kent Graham days. People always debated who should start. It turned out everyone was wrong. When Eli Manning came along, there was no debate, and there have been two Super Bowls.
I was thinking of this as I was contemplating the Mets SS situation. From my estimation, Wilmer Flores plays SS with flyball pitchers like Bartolo Colon and Jacob deGrom. Collins plays Ruben Tejada with groundballs pitchers like Jon Niese. Essentially, Collins is trying to hide Flores’ poor defense with flyball pitchers while hiding Tejada’s poor bat by playing him only with the groundballs pitchers. In essence, the Mets don’t have a good SS option right now, so Collins is forced to mix and match like with Dave Brown and Kent Graham.
This wouldn’t be an issue if either Flores or Tejada fit the bill. Flores was supposed to be the offensive option. He’s hit .262/.294/.411, and that’s after a terrific last 20 games where he’s hit .324/.360/.521. Note, if he hits like this, you can live with his poor glove at SS.
Now, Flores may not be the disaster defensively that I thought he might be originally. That’s a testament to his work ethic. Last year, his UZR at SS was 4.0, which is above average. This year, he’s at -2.8, which is below average. Overall, in a limited sample size, the advanced statistics tell us he has decent range.
Now, this is where the advanced statistics conflict with the eye test. As per my eye test, he has limited range at SS. Furthermore, even though he’s better lately, he’s had trouble turning the double play. Also, why I don’t think errors are necessarily a true measure of defensive ability, it should be noted that Flores has the fifth most errors at SS in the NL despite playing only 85 out of a possible 132 games there.
With his struggling defense, it seemed Collins was forced to play Tejada at SS. The problem is despite the Mets assumptions, Tejada is not a good defensive SS. The advanced statistics show his UZR is -5.2, which rates to be quite a below average defensive SS. To be fair, a partial season of UZR data is not entirely reliable. Instead, we should look at his career UZR, which is -1.1. Generally, speaking he’s been slightly below average.
However, when applying the eye test, we see a SS who is much steadier than Flores. For all of Tejada’s faults, he looks to be more comfortable at SS, makes the routine play, and he is much better turning the double play. The problem is that’s all he is – steady. He will never even be thought of in the Gold a Glove competition. Furthermore, with a .253/.334/.338 triple slash line, it’s not like he’s hitting enough to justify his steady glove.
That puts Collins in a bind. He had to choose between a better hitter who’s a poor fielder and a steady at best fielder who doesn’t hit well. In sum, he doesn’t have a real SS option. I have to admit that despite his recent rough stretch, Collins has handled this situation well. He’s going to have to continue as the Mets have no other SS on the 40 man roster and cannot trade for one now. Actually they can, but that player won’t be eligible for the playoffs.
It’s amazing to think the Mets are here with no SS. Hopefully, Tejada or Flores will step up and take control of the situation. If not, I trust Collins can continue juggling the situation for now without dropping a ball.
The Mets have recently made a few very important announcements regarding Steven Matz:
- Matz will spot start in place of Noah Syndergaard on Saturday;
- The Mets will shift to a six man rotation; and
- Matz will not be a bullpen option.
In my opinion, the Mets are trying to accomplish two things: (1) they’re trying to reduce the innings of the stud muffins; and (2) they’re holding open auditions for the postseason rotation. I’m still not sure they’re not tempting fate.
Now, let’s start with the presumption that Jacob deGrom and Matt Harvey will be in the postseason rotation. This leaves two open slots in the rotation because we know the Mets will not allow anyone to start a game on three days rest. Let’s look at the candidates individually.
Noah Syndergaard
By any measure, Thor is the Mets third best starter. He is 8-6 with a 3.31 ERA and 1.136 WHIP. He averages just over a strikeout per inning. His 3.38 FIP is the third best on the team, and it profiles him as an above average to great starting pitcher. So what’s the problem?
First, more so than any other pitcher, he has an innings limit problem. Second, he has dramatic home/road splits. He has had 10 home and 10 road starts. Here’s how he’s fared:
- Home: 7-1, 2.15 ERA, 0.831 WHIP
- Road: 1-5, 4.91 ERA, 1.558 WHIP
So, he is really good at home, but he’s bad on the road. One way to cure this is to set up the postseason rotation so he only starts at home. It may be difficult, but it’s not impossible. Another thing to look at is how he’s pitched on the road against the Mets possible play-off opponents:
- 5/12 @ Cubs (first career start): L, 5.1 IP, 3 H, 4 BB, 6 K, 3 ER
- 7/3 @ Dodgers: ND, 6.0 IP, 2 H, 2 BB, 6 K, 1 ER
- 7/17 @ Cardinals: L, 7.0 IP, 5 H, 1 BB, 6 K, 2 ER
Looking at these stats, I’m comfortable with him starting on the road at these places. He needs to be in the rotation.
Jon Niese
Well, we saw the return of the bad Jon Niese yesterday. He’s had a rough year to the tune of 8-10 with a 4.17 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP. His FIP is a team worst 4.44 FIP, which profiles him as a bad starting pitcher this year.
We may have once assumed he was a lock for the postseason rotation after his strong June and July. He had respective ERAs of 3.00 and 2.87. His respective WHIPs were 1.333 and 1.021. Then the wheels came off. In August, he had a 5.17 ERA and a 1.309 WHIP. He continued the free fall last night. He cannot be an option for the postseason roster.
Bartolo Colon
Where to begin with Bartolo Colon? He’s 12-11 with a 4.42 ERA. He has a 3.82 FIP, which profiles as an average starting pitcher, which is more than Niese can say. However, if you excuse the pun, Colon has fattened up on some bad teams.
Against the NL East, Colon has gone 11-1 with a 3.01 ERA. That means against non-NL East teams, his record is 1-10. Against possible playoff teams (Cardinals, Blue Jays, Cubs, Dodgers, and Pirates), he has gone 0-3 with a 4.85 ERA. These aren’t great stats, and this may open the door for Matz.
Steven Matz
First off, let’s start with the premise that while his first two starts were fun, we can’t glean anything from them. He’s a top prospect, but he is not better than Harvey or deGrom. You’d be hard pressed to convince me he’s better than Thor. Second, let’s remember he’s still building up arm strength. In his last start, he only threw 77 pitches. Finally, he won’t be pitching against the best teams in baseball.
If the Mets go with a six man rotation starting on Saturday, Matz will make the following starts:
- 9/5 at Marlins
- 9/11 at Braves
- 9/18 vs. Yankees
- 9/24 at Reds
- 10/1 at Phillies
As we see with Colon, you can pitch well against bad teams, but that doesn’t mean you’re going to pitch well against the good teams. No one should read anything into starts against four bad teams . . . even if they’re bad starts. No one should. Unfortunately, if he’s great, someone might. That’s dangerous.
Bullpen Option
You know what you could determine? You can determine if Matz can pitch in the bullpen. You can put him in high leverage spots. If you’re truly concerned about his health, you can institute a modified version of the Joba Rules. However, I have a real problem believing the Mets sincerity on the issue when Dan Warthen is playing doctor when Matz had injury complaints. Also, this is a way of limiting his innings and how much he needs to pitch with an abdominal tear.
The Cardinals are famous for this. Mets fans know with Adam Wainwright how well this works. We saw the Rays use this effectively in 2008 with David Price when they won the AL Pennant. I think the careers of Wainwright and Price have turned out just fine.
After Matz has his start on Saturday, the Mets should move him to the bullpen. If you care about his health, you will limit his innings. You don’t use a September stretch run to stretch him out. Players get hurt that way. If you don’t want him to get hurt, put him in the bullpen. Let him pitch multiple innings. Give him a few days off afterwards. See how he responds.
If he responds well, you have a dangerous weapon in the bullpen come October. If you’re not sold, just remember what happened at the All Star Game. Imagine that in a playoff game . . . .
If the Mets actually pull this off and win the division, they need to send some playoff shares to the Phillies as they are now 13-1 against them. If not for the Phillies, the Mets would only be three games over .500 right now and in a tie for the division lead with the Nationals.
Today’s win was fueled by Bartolo Colon. He was once again terrific against them. Last time out, he went 7 innings with eight strikeouts and none earned. Tonight, he was even better going 8 innings with nine strikeouts and no runs allowed. Between this start and Saturday’s relief appearance, he is single-handedly saving the bullpen. Honestly, he could’ve and should’ve gone nine.
Jeurys Familia came on in the ninth, and he got into trouble. He loaded the bases. He was able to induce a 6-4-3 double play. He dodged a bullet when a would be Andres Blanco extra base hit went foul. Familia would strike him out to end the game. However, tonight belonged to Colon.
Colon even added some offense. After Michael Conforto‘s opposite field HR giving the Mets a 1-0 lead in the fifth, Colon added a single. He would score on Curtis Granderson‘s homerun. Colon would make these three fifth inning runs hold up for the Mets 3-0 win.
There needs to be an important point made about replay here. In the seventh, it appeared Conforto had his first stolen base. However, the tag lingered. There was about .000000000000000000000000000001 seconds where Conforto was not on the bag. After a review lasting about four hours, Conforto was ruled out. It became his first caught stealing instead of his first stolen base.
I lean towards being old school. I was skeptical of replay. I agree that if you’re going to have it, you need to get the call right. The umpires got the call right. However, I still can’t believe that was actually replayed. Second, while I don’t think it was the case, how could you tell that the rage forced Conforto off the bag for that split second?
If baseball wants to speed up the game, they have to address all areas. If you want a clock on the pitcher and batter, you need a clock on replay. It detracted from the viewing experience.
Luckily, it didn’t detract from the win.
We all know the Mets have bullpen issues. They’re bad. Really, really bad. So bad, that Bartolo Colon had to make a relief appearance yesterday. I’ll give Collins credit for thinking outside the box to help fix a problem he created.
While the Addison Reed trade helps, he’s just one arm in an exhausted bullpen. The Mets need more help. The best help for a tired bullpen is for your starter to go deep in the game. Again, this is where the Mets inability to do math prevents them from permitting them to allow their starters from going deep into games.
On Friday, Matt Harvey could’ve and should’ve pitched another inning, especially with the extra rest. Yesterday, it was clear that Jacob deGrom was done after six. I had no problem with Collins pulling him. In fact, I wouldn’t have had a problem if Collins pulled him during the sixth inning.
Anyway, we don’t know when Addison Reed is arriving at Citi Field. We also don’t know if he’s ready to pitch. Furthermore, the Mets do not have an off day until Thursday. The only solution we’re left with is for Noah Syndergaard is to pitch a good game. I mean a real good game where he goes deep into the game.
Here’s where the Mets may be getting some luck on their side as Thor is great at home. He is 7-1 at home with a 1.82 ERA and an absurdly low 0.808 WHIP. More important for today’s game, he averages a little over seven innings per home start. If he keeps his pitch count under control today, he should be able to do that today. However, keep in mind Better pitchers like Harvey and deGrom topped 100 pitches through six innings against this same Red Sox team.
The Mets need a big start today from Thor. It’s a test for him in advance of a month that’s going to be a series of tests. He’s passed every test so far. I have confidence that if Collins allows him, he can pass this test today.