In 1973, the American League instituted the DH in order to increase scoring and attendance. It’s now 2016, and there is a call for the National League to adopt the DH for various reasons, including increasing offense. While we can admit a DH is a better hitter than a pitcher, what impact does a DH have upon offense.
To look at offenses, let’s look at baserunners. The best gauge for baserunners is OBP. Here’s the OBP average per team in the AL and NL the past 10 years:
- 2015: AL .318/NL .316
- 2014: AL .316/NL .312
- 2013: AL .320/NL .315
- 2012: AL .320/NL .318
- 2011: AL .322/NL .319
- 2010: AL .327/NL .324
- 2009: AL .335/NL .330
- 2008: AL .335/NL .331
- 2007: AL .338/NL .334
- 2006: AL .339/NL .334
Even with the automatic pitcher outs, there isn’t a great disparity in the OBP between the league’s. However, there are more baserunners in the AL. As a result, it is reasonable to expect that there will be the average AL team will score more runs over the same timeframe:
- 2015: AL 710/NL 666
- 2014: AL 677/NL 640
- 2013: AL 702/NL 649
- 2012: AL 721/NL 683
- 2011: AL 723/NL 668
- 2010: AL 721/NL 701
- 2009: AL 781/NL 718
- 2008: AL 775/NL 734
- 2007: AL 794/NL 763
- 2006: AL 804/NL 771
Again, it is undoubtedly true the average AL team scores more runs over the course of a season, especially in 2009. However, to determine what impact these additional runs have on a game, we need to look at what the average runs an average team scores per game
- 2015: AL 4.38/NL 4.11 Difference 0.27
- 2014: AL 4.18/NL 3.95 Difference 0.21
- 2013: AL 4.33/NL 4.01 Difference 0.32
- 2012: AL 4.45/NL 4.22 Difference 0.23
- 2011: AL 4.46/NL 4.12 Difference 0.34
- 2010: AL 4.45/NL 4.33 Difference 0.12
- 2009: AL 4.83/NL 4.43 Difference 0.40
- 2008: AL 4.78/NL 4.53 Difference 0.25
- 2007: AL 4.90/NL 4.71 Difference 0.19
- 2006: AL 4.96/NL 4.76 Difference 0.20
So overall, even with the DH, the average AL team does not even score a run more per game than the average NL team. the highest differential over the last ten years was in 2009 when it was 0.40 runs per game. There may be different reasons to explain why these numbers are so close. However, these are numbers are close each and every year over the course of a decade.
So while many will say the DH increase offense, they would be right. However, they are wrong on the extent of the impact. The impact is essentially negligible.
With the Mets announcing they are finally retiring Mike Piazza’s number, there have been renewed discussions regarding if there should be any other Mets who should have their number retired. You know the names: Gary Carter, Dwight Gooden, Darryl Strawberry, and, of course, Keith Hermandez.
Instead of arguing the merits of each of these players, I thought I would offer up a new name. Ron Darling.
Looking over Darling’s resume, he was a good, but not a great Met. He was 99-70 with a 3.50 ERA in nine years with the Mets. He won a Gold Glove, and he went to an All Star Game. He had a nice career, and he certainly justified the Mets trading away fan favorite Lee Mazzilli for him. Justifying a trade and having your number retired are two separate distinctions. Admittedly, Darling’s career falls well short of justifying his number retired.
The argument for his number being retired emirates from his current role with the Mets. He’s part of the already iconic Gary, Keith, and Ron. He calls Mets games from the Ralph Kiner TV Booth. That honor was bestowed upon Kiner, an original Met, and Mets broadcasting legend. Kiner was part of the original amazing Mets trio of Kiner, Lindsay Nelson, and Bob Murphy. The radio booth was named after the Hall of Famer Bob Murphy.
Darling is a terrific broadcaster in his own right. He’s so great he was picked up by TBS to do color commentary. As a member of the 1986 Mets and as a broadcaster, Darling has been an important part of Mets history. Since the TV booth already carries the name of Ralph Kiner, and deservedly so, we need to find another way to honor Ron Darling’s rich Mets career. The Mets should retire his number 12.
However, they shouldn’t do it before retiring Keith’s number 17.
Even though Commissioner Rob Manfred said the NL will not have the DH anytime soon, he has opened up Pandora’s box with his previous comments that the NL could see the DH in 2017. With the Collective Bargaining Agreement expiring at the end of the year, the issue is still on that table. Accordingly, I believe it’s an issue that still needs to be addressed.
Now one of the key arguments anyone has in requesting the DH be implemented in the National League is because the move would increase offense. That is undoubtedly true. The corollary to this argument is that more offense will create higher ratings. It’s an axiom that is heard time and again, but is it true?
Before delving more in depth, there needs to be a clear understanding of baseball’s current business model. Baseball has become a regional sport. Part of this can be attributed to the rise of regional sports networks like SNY and YES. More likely, this is the result of every team having all 162 games televised. Given the choice, a vast majority of sports fans will choose to watch their team play than watch the National Game of the Week. For example, when ESPN has Wednesday Night Baseball, I’m watching the Mets.
The only real issue of what drives ratings is when the postseason begins. At that time, a fan has no other baseball viewing option. Whether you’re a die hard fan or a casual fan, you’re choices are limited.
For my determination of whether or not the DH helps with ratings, I selected the ALCS and the NLCS. With there being four division series shown at different times of the day, the issue of availability becomes murky. However, typically, MLB attempts to schedule the ALCS and the NLCS so there’s as little conflict as possible.
Last year, the NLCS between the Mets and Cubs was the most watched NLCS since 2010. The series averaged almost eight million viewers per game in what was a four game sweep. On the flip side, the ALCS was drawing record low numbers. There was a disparity of about three to seven million per game who watched each series. In 2014, the script was much different.
The 2014 NLCS featured the Giants and the Cardinals, two fairly historic and important National League teams. The Giants last won a World Series in 2012, and the Cardinals were in the World Series the previous year. This NLCS had terrible ratings. The Giants-Cardinals series drew about 4.5 million viewers per game. That was down two million from these teams NLCS two years earlier.
The 2014 ALCS between the Baltimore Orioles and Kansas City Royals drew terrific ratings. The series averaged 5.1 million viewers. It consistently outdrew the NLCS. It outdrew the NLCS despite having smaller media markets and less historic franchises. Was the difference the DH and the increased scoring that goes with it? No.
As we have seen, baseball will tend to attract more fans with better and more compelling series. It should be of no surprise that Mets-Cubs drew terrific ratings. These were two young teams with some terrific pitching going head-to-head. It also didn’t hurt these franchises had a history. It also doesn’t hurt that the Cubs haven’t won in forever.
So no, the DH and increased offense isn’t what is driving ratings. It’s the matchups. Plain and simple. If someone says the DH will hp increase offense and create better ratings, they are creating a narrative that simply does not exist. Sure, someone can argue that they don’t want to see a pitcher hit, but we also know it won’t stop them from watching a compelling game or series.
Overall, ratings is not a reason to bring the DH into the National League.
Every single one of us has our favorite players. Growing up, I loved Gary Carter. If I had a blog back in 1997, it would’ve been named ElectGaryCartertotheHallofFameNow.com.Finally, in 2003, The Kid was finally elected in the Hall of Fame. I wanted him to go in as a Met and for him to have his number retired by the team.
There would be controversy over his cap. To understand the controversy, we have to go back in time a bit. There was a time that players were not selecting caps due to the team they felt most closely aligned or where they accomished the most. No, players were selecting caps based upon financial incentives.
Dave Winfield received $1 million to wear a Padres cap on his Hall of Fame plaque when he was inducted in 2001. Winfield going into the Hall as a Padre wasn’t an egregious choice. He started his career there, and he played eight years there as opposed to nine with the Yankees. He did have better numbers with the Yankees, but he was also treated awfully by them. Steinbrenner dubbed him Mr. May to deride his production in a pennant race. Steinbrenner hired gamblers and private investigators to “dig up dirt” on Winfield to get out from under the contact. So no, it’s not surprising Winfield chose the Padres cap and the $1 million.
Winfield wasn’t egregious, but it was the sign of a larger problem. That problem would come to a head with Wade Boggs. There were rumors that Boggs negotiated in his contract that he would enter the Hall of Fame as a Tampa Bay Devil Ray. It forces the Hall of Fame’s hand, and they began the process of selecting player caps, even if it was against a player’s wishes. As we saw with Andre Dawson, it’s a move that benefitted the defunct Montreal Expos.
On the one hand, it’s a move that had to be made. You couldn’t have players and teams negotiating this away in one year contracts towards the end of a player’s career. The Hall of Fame does have some responsibility to preserve history. On the other hand, the Hall of Fame has overstepped its bounds a bit. Remember they did allow Reggie Jackson to enter the Hall of Fame as a Yankee (5 years) as opposed to the Athletics (10 years). They allowed Nolan Ryan to enter the Hall of Fame as a Ranger (5 of his worst years) instead of an Astro (9 years) or an Angel (8 years).
Carter played 12 years for the Expos, and 5 with the Mets. Based on the Jackson/Ryan standard he should’ve had his choice even if Carter was an Expo through and through. However, Carter wanted to go in as a Met. The Hall of Fame decided he would go in as the first Montreal Expos; a decision Carter did not object.
Unfortunately, the decision cost him. The Expos moved to Washington a year and a half after his induction. The franchise almost immediately unretired the number of their first Hall of Famer. Also, it cost Carter his chance of the Mets retiring his number 8.
As we saw with Mike Piazza, the Mets have set an exceedingly high standard for retiring numbers. For their players, the Mets have reserved that honor for players who have entered the Hall of Fame wearing a Mets cap. With one decision made by the Hall of Fame, not by Carter, Carter was cheated of his chance to have his number retired by the Mets. Sadly, even if the Mets reverse course, the day honoring Carter will be melancholy with his untimely death at the all too young age of 57.
If Carter isn’t there to enjoy the honor, I believe the moment has passed. As much as I may have wanted it one day, I don’t think the time is now. If the Carter family feels differently, I certainly would change my tune.
As a Giants fan, I love Eli Manning. Any true Giants fan would. The man won two Super Bowls picking up an MVP in each game. There’s always the debate if he’s elite or not. That conversation never concerned me because I knew that my guy could go up against Brett Favre, Aaron Rodgers, and Tom Brady (twice) and beat them in the biggest games. He inspires confidence. That’s all I could ask. That’s why he’s a big time QB.
That’s how I feel about the Mets current pitching staff. Last we saw them, they were leading the Mets to an improbable National League Pennant. Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, and Noah Syndergaard went out there and established they can pitch with anybody. Better yet, they established they can beat anybody. In the NLDS, it was Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke for two starts a piece. In the NLCS, it was Jake Arrieta and Jon Lester. Mets beat them all.
With Arrieta, Greinke, and Kershaw, the Mets beat the top three in the NL Cy Young voting. With Lester, the Mets beat a pitcher who has a 2.85 postseason ERA along with a 1.071 WHIP. Harvey, deGrom, and Syndergaard beat them all. Not only did they establish they can pitch with the best, they also established they can beat the best. That’s all you need to know about them.
Sure, the Mets rotation wasn’t ranked ahead of the Cubs rotation, nor was it ranked as the top rotation in baseball. None of the Mets pitchers were ranked as the top 10 pitchers right now. At the end of the day, who cares? Seriously. This stuff is to create and drive debate. What’s not up for debate is that the Mets Big Three can go against any other team’s pitching and win.
So while everyone can go on discussing who is and who is not elite, I’m perfectly comfortable watching my guys collect division titles and pennants. They’ve proven they can do that, and they will do it again. So yes, none of the Mets starters are in the Top 10 right now. At the end of the day, it doesn’t matter.
The Mets starters right now are number one in the National League.
There are two things that are usually true about my birthday: (1) it always rains on my birthday; and (2) the Mets are not usually playing at home on my birthday. When the Mets are home on my birthday, the rain usually wrecks havoc with the Mets home game.
I was thinking about this when the Mets announced Mike Piazza Weekend. I’m assuming that entire weekend will be sold out. I know it was difficult getting good seats to the Saturday night retirement ceremony. As an aside, I would’ve retired Mike Piazza‘s #31 on July 31st instead of the 30th. Not a big deal, but just a quirk I noticed that will eventually drive either me or everyone else around me to a mental institution. I digress. It’s going to be awesome to see the fans come out the entire weekend. It’s a testament to how much we love Piazza and how good the 2016 Mets will be.
The entire weekend will be a celebration of Mike Piazza and the current Mets team. It’s a far cry from what Tom Seaver received when he had his Tom Seaver Night the year he was inducted into the Hall of Fame.
There are birthdays we have that always stand out in your mind, and August 12, 1992 is one of them. I got one of those newfangled CD players. I got to rock out to such musical visionaries as C&C Music Factory. Oh and by the way, it rained. Boy oh boy did it rain. Water was getting into the house. Seriously, 100 times out of 100 they call this game. However, there was zero chance the Mets were going to call this game because it was Tom Seaver Hall of Fame night. It was the night Seaver was going to receive his Hall of Fame ring in a pregame ceremony.
I know I was the only one in my family who wanted to go, but guess what; it was my birthday so we went. Seriously, my mother must’ve tried to talk me out of it like 41 times. Eventually, we went out. I remember on the way to Shea Stadium, the windshield wipers were at their highest setting, but it didn’t matter.
We made it to Shea Stadium in time for the ceremony. The announced attendance was 20,488. During the ceremony, there must’ve been a couple of thousand, and most of them were in the back rows of the Lodge and Mezzanine. The fans were mostly driven away by the rain. They were also driven away by a terrible Mets team. You might also remember them as The Worst Team Money Could Buy.
On that night, they were Terrific. In his third career start, Eric Hillman pitched eight scoreless innings against the hated Pirates. That night Hillman was every bit the 6’10” giant we thought he could be. That night at least Seaver was honored with a great pitching performance because he certainly wasn’t honored with the type of fan turnout he deserved.
Piazza won’t have that problem. Piazza will get three straight sell-outs and a good Mets team. I’m sure not even the rain could keep people away. I know it won’t stop me.
If you’ve worked anywhere, and a new boss comes in, you know they want to immediately set new things in place. They want to leave their mark. It doesn’t matter if the changes are needed or wanted. When Commissioner Rob Manfred took the helm, he set forth to improve the pace of play and average game times.
We can discuss whether the changes and/or enforcing of rules already in place was a good thing. We can debate if the changes had a noticeable impact. We can even argue if this was even necessary. That is all besides the point. What is clear, however, is that is something that the Commissioner wanted to improve.
To me, this is why the “momentum” towards adding the DH in the NL doesn’t make sense. Let’s start with the subjective. At a minimum, for innings 1-5, a National League pitcher will normally get at least two at bats. When a pitcher comes up to bat, you normally see an out. This out may be the result of the pitcher being a poor hitter. The out may be as a result of the pitcher going up there to sacrifice bunt. Regardless, the pitcher is typically a quick out. When there are quick outs, you move the game along more quickly.
Now, this quick out that helps move the game along and arguably helps improve the pace of play is replaced with a DH. As structured a DH is not an easy out. They’re typical a better hitter than the pitcher who wins the Silver Slugger. This year it was Madison Bumgarner, who hit .247/.275/.468 with five homers and 9 RBI. That’s an outlier, where you are blown over by that pitcher’s hitting stats. If you got that from a position player or a DH, you’d be screaming for them to be benched, like Evan Gattis, who hit .246/.285/.463. Side note, what was A.J. Hinch thinking last year making Gattis the DH for 136 regular season games and all six postseason games?
While it’s noteworthy that the worst DH was a better hitter than the best hitting pitcher, it’s not a complete analysis. Given that I live in the New York market, I predominantly see the Mets and Yankees play. As you may guess, I watch a lot more Mets games. In any event, in New York, the best hitting pitcher is Jacob de Grom, who hit .186/.226/.203. The Yankees normal DH was a guy you might have heard of who goes by the name Alex Rodriguez. Last year, A-Rod hit .250/.356/.486. That’s a massive difference. With A-Rod getting on base much more frequently over the position he’s replacing, the game should be longer.
However, is that necessarily true? We can think it makes the games longer, but that does not make it necessarily true. Well, it turns out AL games are typically longer than NL games. In 2014, AL games were about four minutes longer than NL games. Admittedly, four minutes may not seem like much time. However, MLB put measures in place to reduce game times, and the net result was six less minutes per game. Say what you want with respect to this, but it’s a start.
In all fairness, it does appear that the pace of play initiative had a more profound impact on the AL. The split between the NL and AL is now approximately one minute. With that said, NL games are still shorter. I’m still interested to see if: (1) MLB will continue this initiative; and (2) what the further impact this initiative has on both leagues.
However, the main point is MLB wants to shorten games. If the DH is introduced into the NL, game times will lengthen. These two concepts do not jive. As such, if MLB wants to reduce game times, it should keep the DH out of the National League.
Editor’s Note: this is the first in a series on the possibility of the NL adding the DH.
As we have seen throughout their history, the media has had a profound impact on the Mets. We first saw it with Dick Young’s columns leading to Tom Seaver demanding a trade. There were the days of Mike and the Mad Dog bringing Mike Piazza to the Mets. Dick Young has since passed, Mad Dog Chris Russo is on Sirius XM, and Mike Francesca has announced he’s leaving WFAN in 2017.
It appears the torch has already been passed to Mike Vaccaro. If you’re asking who Mike Vaccaro is right now, newspapers are in bigger trouble than advertised. With that said, Mike Vaccaro is the preeminent sports columnist in New York. A July column of his secured his place amongst the greats.
Back in July 2015, Mets fans were subjected to Eric Campbell and John Mayberry, Jr. hitting the in the middle of the lineup. Mets fans were clamoring for a trade. Sandy Alderson mocked Mets fans referring to New York as “Panic City.” Mike Vaccaro called it what it really was, “Malpractice.”
He kept the heat on up until the trade deadline. He questioned if the front office was a fraud. He called the lineup an indictment of Sandy Alderson. He called the Mets willfully ignorant. He said the Mets were not committed to making the team better. He kept the heat on the Mets. He wasn’t saying anything different than every Mets fan was at the time. It’s one thing for Mets fans to hoot and holler on Twitter. It’s another thing for a respected columnist to say it.
The Mets began a relative flurry of trades before the non-waiver trade deadline acquiring Tyler Clippard, Kelly Johnson, Juan Uribe, and Yoenis Cespedes. Whether you thought the trades were good, bad, or ugly, this series of trades changed the narrative about the Mets. I’m sure a number of factors went into those decisions, but I’ll never discount the public pressure. I’ll always appreciate that Mike Vaccaro for being the lead voice. Anytime you have a cause, no matter how relatively insignificant, it’s always beneficial to have a well respected voice leading the way.
By the way, when you were upset with the offseason, so was Mike Vaccaro. He called out the Wilpons for being cheap. Again, he said exactly what you and I were thinking. Again, the public pressure was ratcheted up. Then it happened. The Mets re-signed Yoenis Cespedes. They expanded payroll to make it commensurate with revenues and the market in which they play. In the end, that’s all that Mets fans were asking of ownership.
We can all parse through who gets credit for all of this, and I’m sure there’s enough credit to spread around to everyone. However, I don’t think anything resonated quite like the Malpractice column. At least to me, it was a seminal moment.
A large part of Dick Young’s legacy was his columns which caused Seaver to demand a trade. With it came some awful baseball and an empty Shea Stadium. Part of Mike Francesca’s legacy was the Mike Piazza trade, and by extension, Piazza entering the Hall of Fame as a Met. Right now, part of Mike Vaccaro’s legacy is Yoenis Cespedes being a Met. The rest of that story is yet to be written. When it is written by Mike Vaccaro, it will be a must read.
In any event, Yoenis Cespedes is still a Met, and for that, I say, “Thank you Mike Vaccaro.”
There are a few things I pride myself on. One of them is that I’m always prepared. I’m that guy you hate because my Christmas shopping is done before Black Friday. I’ve found that to be more difficult with a son. When this snowstorm came, I was completely unprepared.
To put things is perspective, this was the second big snowstorm with my son. Last year, he hated it. HATED! Back then, he was still a little guy. At first, he was all excited to run in the snow, but then he got stuck. It went up to his belly. As such, when I heard about this year’s snowfall, the last thing I thought of was him playing in the snow.
The thing of it is a kids love playing in snow. It hit me almost too late. I had to run out Friday during lunch to get a sled. Toys R Us? Sold out. Target? Sold out. Models? Didn’t carry them. Home Depot? Nope. I basically had to go into Dicks and get the only one they had left. I envisioned the type of sled I wanted to get my son, but it wasn’t it. At this point in the game, beggers can’t be choosers.
How’d it go? Well, this year, my son loved the snow. He couldn’t wait to go out and play in it. He got angry with me when I went out to shovel last night because he thought I was playing in the snow without him. This morning I gave him the plastic shovel and let him push it around the driveway. Sure, he messed up a lot of what I already did, but he was so excited to be helping his daddy. It was worth it to have to re-shovel some areas
As for the sledding? He wasn’t as big a fan as I hoped he would be.
He wanted to shovel more. I seriously hope he stays this way forever. First, it would save me the time and effort. Second, it would give him more incentive to go out and earn a few bucks like I did as a kid. I digress. That’s how toddlers are. I’m sure if I started with the sledding, he not have wanted to stop that. It’ll probably be a different story next year.
In any event, when the snow comes, you need more than milk, bread, and eggs. You need to go out early and make sure you get your kid a sled before all the other parents do.
It’s incredible to think Yoenis Cespedes is back with the Mets. Everyone associated with the Mets should be thrilled. Cespedes’ presence on the Mets makes them a better team than the one they had. The question is how much better.
Well, first let’s get some things out of the way. Cespedes will not be as good as he was when he first came to the Mets. He was insanely hot. He hit 17 homers in a less than two months. That’s roughly a 50 homerun pace. He has power, but he’s never shown that much power. Cespedes also isn’t the .150 hitter we saw struggle in the World Series. As with everything else in life, the truth is somewhere inbetween.
Cespedes is a career .271/.319/.486 hitter. In an average season, he hits 30 homers and 103 RBI. His OPS+ is 122. His wRC+ is 121. All of this is to say that while he’s not the hitter he was initially with the Mets, he’s still a very effective slugger. The various projections seem to think he’ll hit a little worse than his career averages next year:
- Marcel: .265/.309/.480 with 26 homers and 88 RBI
- Steamer: .266/.312/.463 with 26 homers and 72 RBI
- ZiPS: .270/.312/.498 with 30 homers and 98 RBI
So, the projection systems, for what they’re worth, see Cespedes’ production dipping slightly in 2016. Part of that could be his first post-30 year old season. Part could be his .236/.302/.491 batting line Cespedes has had at Citi Field. I believe all Mets fans believe the reason should be that these projections are plain wrong and Cespedes will be more like he was in August and September.
The thing is Cespedes is going to have to be that 30+ homerun guy for the Mets. He needs to be that guy not only because the lineup needs another power threat, but also the fact that he needs to makeup for the fact that he’s a poor centerfielder. Remember, he has a career -12.6 UZR and -17 DRS in centerfield. Those are ugly numbers. Numbers which should be somewhat abated by Juan Lagares coming in late as a defensive replacement thereby shifting Cespedes to his natural LF.
So overall, it seems Cespedes will be poor defensively, and he will hit for power. More importantly, with Cespedes the Mets should be projected to win the NL East. Once the Mets get to that point, they have the pitching to win the World Series.
I’m projecting a very fun 2016 ahead.