Yoenis Cespedes
Last night was a tough loss. It was bad from the beginning. Yoenis Cespedes turns a flyball into an inside the park homerun. The Mets blew a two run lead. Yet, the Mets were in position to win Game 1. Unfortunately, Jeurys Familia blew the save with one bad pitch.
I’ll tell you what. If the Mets are in the same position again tonight, I like the Mets chances. Familia rarely blows a save. After his last blown save, he had 16 saves with a 1.30 ERA and a 1.048 WHIP. Before last night, he was 5/5 in save attempts with a 0.00 ERA and a 0.207 WHIP. He’s not blowing another save.
Also, keep in mind almost everything had to break right for the Royals to win. They had a routine flyball turn into an inside the park homerun. Matt Harvey had to blow a 3-1 lead. He doesn’t blow leads like that. Twice the Mets picked themselves off the mat and twice got the lead. As much as the Royals fought back, the Mets did as well.
Another important development was Wilmer Flores was terrific at SS last night. He made all the plays. At one point, he ranged into the hole, made a nice backhand pickup, and made a strong throw to first getting a speedy Alcides Escobar. He’s played this well since Ruben Tejada went down.
We also know Michael Cuddyer is not getting three at bats in another World Series game. In fact, it’s possible he won’t get three more at bats in total during the rest of the series. He killed two rallies. He shouldn’t be in a position to kill another rally.
Also, for all the talk of the Royals bullpen, the Mets bullpen was good. Addison Reed was terrific. Tyler Clippard needed some help from Familia, but the Mets did not allow a leadoff double to lead to a run. Jon Niese was terrific. It looks like the Mets bullpen can hold up in this series.
Speaking of bullpens, the Royals used Game 4 starter, Chris Young, for three innings. The Mets were over anxious in extra innings against him. However, it can’t hurt to have seen him once. Also, he threw 53 pitches, and he will have to come back on three days rest for Game 4.
With Johnny Cueto always being a risk for a meltdown, the Royals may need to go to the bullpen early. They will need to do it again in Game 4. The Royals terrific bullpen could quickly become taxed. Their greatest strength can quickly become a liability.
Finally, as we all know momentum is the next day’s starting pitcher. That starting pitcher is Jacob deGrom. He’s been the Mets ace. In the postseason, he is 3-0 with a 1.80 ERA, 1.000 WHIP, and a 12.2 K/9. The Mets still have the starting pitching edge. The Mets have seen the Royals up close and can adjust their pitching accordingly.
All the Mets needed in Kansas City was a split. That’s still on the table. There’s still reason for optimism. They can still win tonight.
Lets Go Mets!
Coming into this game, neither the Mets nor the Royals had won the first game in the World Series. Last night into this morning, they turned it into an art form.
This is now the longest Game 1 (innings-wise) in #WorldSeries history. #NYMvsKC
— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) October 28, 2015
Ultimately, the game came down to Chris Young and Bartolo Colon. One was as tall as the other one was wide. While Young was mowing down the Mets, Colon was on a tightrope. He finally fell through allowing a sac fly in the 14th. The winning runner was on base after a Wright error and no challenge. The game was just sheer torture. Prior to this, there was an actual baseball game.
The game did not start the way Matt Harvey and the Mets wanted. Yoenis Cespedes misplayed a fly ball out into an Alcides Escobar inside the park homerun. The first in the World Series since a player named Mule Haas in the 1929 World Series.
This would kill most teams, but these Mets have shown themselves to be resilient. Travis d’Arnaud singled in Daniel Murphy in the fourth. Curtis Granderson homered in the fifth. Conforto hit a sac fly scoring Cespedes in the sixth.
Harvey was good tonight. Not great. Not bad. Just good. He pitched six innings allowing five hits, three earned, two walks, and two strikeouts. He was handed a two run lead in the sixth and couldn’t hold it.
After one run scored, he had a chance to get out of it with Mike Moustakas at the plate. Harvey stuck with the offspeed pitches and was seemingly pitching around him to get to Salvador Perez with first base open. A changeup caught too much of the plate, and Moustakas got the RBI single an inning after he made a diving stop to prevent a possible RBI double. From the seventh inning on, it was a battle of the bullpens.
Remember, the biggest advantage the Royals had this series was the bullpen and team defense. Kelvin Herrera was lighting up the radar gun. He had two outs in the eight when Juan Lagares came to the plate. He was in the game as a defensive replacement for Michael Conforto. Mets fans collectively groaned.
Lagares had a terrific at bat fighting off everything Herrera had. He got a single. He then barely stole second, and then this happened:
Actually, no, but it was close.
Wilmer Flores hit a chopper towards Eric Hosmer, who tried to backhand it. It went through him, and the Mets grabbed a 4-3 lead. In a shock to everyone, Jeurys Familia blew the save on a Alex Gordon to homer in the ninth. It was a rare blown save:
Jeurys Familia had converted 21 straight save chances entering day
Last one came day before Mets trade for Cespedes (July 30 vs Padres)
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) October 28, 2015
Jon Niese came on to pitch in the game he was born to pitch in. Niese was born the day the Mets won the World Series. Well, he pitched like he was born for the moment. He went three innings holding the Royals at bay.
As we know it wasn’t enough. After watching it part of me wishes the TV stayed off.
However, the Mets hung in there. They’re resilient, and they have Jacob deGrom tonight. All they need is a split. It’s still on the table. I just hope Collins is better. The Mets generally need to be better.
They will. They just need to show the same resiliency they’ve shown in this game and all year.
The Royals named Edison Volquez as their Game One starter. The Volquez-Johnny Cueto decision wasn’t like what the Mets faced before in the playoffs. However, it merited consideration, and the Royals went with Volquez.
This year Volquez was 13-9 with a 3.55 ERA, 3.82 FIP, 1.308 WHIP, and a 7.0 K/9. That’s where the good ends for Volquez. In his career, he is 1-4 with a 6.56 ERA, 1.543 WHIP, and a 6.9 K/9. He’s been slightly better this postseason going 1-2 with a 4.32 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, and a 8.1 K/9. In the end, what matters most is how he’s pitched against the Mets:
Curtis Granderson 3-12 with 2 HR, 3 RBI, 4 BB, 4 K
David Wright 6-25 with 1 HR, 4 RBI, 5 BB, 4 K
Daniel Murphy 3-17 with 1 RBI, 1 BB, 1 K
Yoenis Cespedes 0-2 with 1 K
Lucas Duda 3-15 with 1 HR, 3 RBI, 2 BB, 10 K
Travis d’Arnaud 0-0
Michael Conforto 0-0
Wilmer Flores 1-6 with 1 double
Juan Lagares 2-12 with 1 BB and 2 K
Combined 18-99 (.182 BA), 12 BB (.270 OBP), 1 double, 4 HR (.253 slugging), 11 RBI, and 22 K
Here’s how the bench has fared against Volquez:
Michael Cuddyer 1-6 with 1 double
Kelly Johnson 4-14 with 1 double, 2 RBI, 3 BB, 5 K
Kirk Nieuwenhuis 1-3 with 2 K
Kevin Plawecki 0-0
Matt Reynolds 0-0
Bench 6-23 (.263) with 3 BB (.346 OBP), 2 double (.467 slugging), 2 RBI, 1 K
In essence, Volquez had pitched well against the Mets. However, the Mets players have gotten to him. When the Mets have made contact, they’ve hit homeruns. It’ll be tough to hit homers in a stadium like Kauffman.
Fortunately, the Mets have better pitching than the Royals. If the Mets pitch how they should, they will need just one of those blasts to win the game, similar to the NLDS.
If there’s one thing that drives me crazy every year, it’s position by position breakdowns. I see it with the Subway Series. It is done with the playoffs. Anthony Castrovince of MLB.com did one of these. It was well thought out and put together. However, it really doesn’t mean anything.
I don’t say this to diminish his work. I’m just tired of the story. I’ve seen the feedback to the breakdown. The biggest argument people seem to have is Lorenzo Cain as being a better CF than Yoenis Cespedes. The focus there is misplaced and not just because he was right. It’s misplaced because Cain doesn’t battle Cespedes. No position player battles another one unless Chase Utley is involved.
Think about any position to position breakdown you might see. Does it really matter if someone has Wade Davis or Jeurys Familia as the better closer? Think about it. Even if Davis is a better closer, do Mets fans really think Familia is going to blow a save because Davis is better? Are the Mets going to lose this series because the Royals have a better SS? Are the Mets going to win because they have the better RF? Of course not.
The Mets will win or lose because of matchups and in game maneuvers. The Mets will win because they have the better pitching. The Mets may lose because the Royals have superior team defense, speed, and bullpen. This is what people should analyze.
It’s exactly what I did in the NLDS and NLCS in predicting a Mets victory. It’s the right way to do it. I’ll have a prediction tomorrow. I hope the numbers again (and not just my heart) will point to the Mets
Sometimes, there’s no rhyme or reason for things. I think this sums up Johnny Cueto‘s 2015 season. He went from a hitters’ ballpark with poor defense to a pitchers ballpark with terrific defense and got worse. It doesn’t make sense especially when you consider he left the best division in baseball for one of the worst.
With the Reds, Cueto averaged 6.2 innings per start going 7-6 with a 2.62 ERA, 3.20 FIP, 0.934 WHIP, and a 8.3 K/9. With the Royals, he averaged 6.0 innings per start with a 4.76 ERA, 4.06 FIP, 1.461 WHIP, and a 6.2 K/9. Sure, he was incredible in the clinching game of the NLDS, but his two other starts were terrible. In Game Three of the ALCS, he took the loss allowing six hits, eight earned, four walks, and two strikeouts over two innings.
Historically, Cueto hasn’t faired well against the Mets either. In his career, he is 3-4 against the Mets with a 4.02 ERA, 1.369 WHIP, and a 10.0 K/9. At Citi Field, he is slightly better with a 2-2 record, 3.60 ERA, 1.267 WHIP, and a 10.5 K/9. The Mets will face him at Kauffman Stadium in Game One. There he is 3-5 with a 3.88 ERA, 1.294 WHIP, and a 6.9 K/9. He’s prime to get hit by the Mets. The only issues is how do these Mets hit him?
Here’s the numbers against the presumed Game One starting lineup:
Curtis Granderson 3-12 with 2 HR, 3 RBI, 4 BB, 4 K
David Wright 6-25 with 1 HR, 4 RBI, 5 BB, 4 K
Daniel Murphy 3-17 with 1 RBI, 1 BB, 1 K
Yoenis Cespedes 0-2 with 1 K
Lucas Duda 3-15 with 1 HR, 3 RBI, 2 BB, 10 K
Travis d’Arnaud 0-0
Michael Conforto 0-0
Wilmer Flores 1-6 with 1 double
Juan Lagares 2-12 with 1 BB, and 2 K
Combined 17-89 (.191 BA) with 12 BB (.287 OBP), 1 double, 4 HR (.337 slugging), 11 RBI, and 21 K
Here’s how the projected bench has hit against him:
Kelly Johnson 1-6 with 1 HR, 2 RBI, 2 BB, 1 K
Michael Cuddyer 1-6 with 1 double
Kirk Nieuwenhuis 1-3 with 2 K
Kevin Plawecki 0-3 with 1 K
Matt Reynolds 0-0
Bench Combined 3-15 (.200 BA) with 2 BB (.294 OBP), 1 double, 1 HR (.467 slugging), 2 RBI, and 4 K
In case the Mets make a roster change, here’s Uribe’s numbers:
Juan Uribe 2-6 with 1 double, 2 RBI, 2 K
Overall, the Mets have not hit Cueto well. However, prior to Cueto being a Royal no one did. Just last year, Cueto limited batters to a triple slash line of .195/.261/.313. So, where’s the discrepancy in all this? Where’s the hope for Mets fans tomorrow? It’s that Cueto’s numbers are actually no fluke at all. In his career, as the year progresses, he tired and gets hit harder:
March/April .208/.269/.349
May .222/.282/.364
June .235/.298/.367
July .252/.324/.365
August .243/.305/.412
September/October .275/.335/.426
Given these numbers, it’s clear that Cueto can be hit . . . hard. This gives the Mets a Game One advantage. When the goal is to split in Kansas City, the Mets need to utilize this advantage. I think they can and will.
In June if you told Mets fans Ben Zobrist would be traded, and his new team would make the World Series, they would’ve been excited. At one point, it seemed a foregone conclusion Zobrist would be a Met. Thankfully, that deal fell apart, and the Mets made better trades that provided the Mets with better talent and depth.
In any event, Zobrist became a Royal for a hefty price. It’s no surprise the Royals were going for it after losing the World Series last year by 90 feet. Since this trade, Zobrist has played LF and 2B for the Royals. As a Royal, he has hit .284/.364/.453. These are good numbers, but the Mets were better off without Zobrist.
If he played second base, he would have surplanted Daniel Murphy at second base. That would’ve mean no #Murphtober, and quite possibly, the Mets lose the NLDS.
If the Mets moved him to LF, that probably would’ve meant no Yoenis Cespedes. Cespedes was an immediate spark plug after the trade. He was so good early on, there was talk of him becoming the NL MVP. The Mets went on 37-22 after the trade, which is a .627 winning percentage or a 102-60 pace.
Zobrist in LF also would’ve meant no Michael Conforto. He made the jump from A ball to the majors. He hit .270/.335/.506. He was much better than advertised defensively. He had good range with a strong, accurate arm. He’s got a bit of the clutch gene homering in his first postseason game off of Zack Greinke.
Also, you don’t know what the A’s were asking for Zobrist. Some of the other deals that took place may not have happened. One of the strengths of the Mets have bee a deep bench giving Terry Collins the ability to platoon.
There was a time if Mets fans had heard Zobrist was traded in season and helped his new team into the World Series, they would’ve been giddy. It was largely assumed he would wind up with the Mets. He didn’t.
Because of that, both the Mets and the Royals made the World Series.
The company line on why Eric Young, Jr. was not on the postseason roster was because it was impractical to carry a pinch runner in the National League. Well, it’s now the World Series, and the Royals have homefield, so it is time to readdress the issue.
If you watched last night‘s game, you could see the importance of a pinch runner in an American League park. Dalton Pompey pinch ran for Russell Martin last night and got himself to third with no outs. He represented the tying run. It’s still incredible the Blue Jays couldn’t knock him in.
On the flip side is Terrance Gore. He should be 5/5 in stolen base attempts in the postseason. On face value, the Royals use him judiciously. They pick their spots. However, at the end of the day, he’s only appeared in eight games and scored two runs. This shows pinch runners can be valuable, but their value is limited to the hitters behind him knocking him in.
Based upon his history with the Mets, EY could be a valuable pinch runner. If these games get tight late, his speed would be of enormous value, especially against a very good Royals bullpen. Still, I think I would have to pass.
First, the Mets need Kirk Nieuwenhuis now more than ever with Yoenis Cespedes‘ shoulder injury. Nieuwenhuis is the only OF on the team who can play all three OF spots well. Plus, Nieuwenhuis is a better baseball player. He’s a better defender and a better hitter. While he doesn’t have Young’s speed, he certainly has enough to be an effective base runner.
That would mean if the Mets want to add Young, they need to go down to 10 pitchers. It’s something the team has previously considered (off of memory, can’t find a supporting link). It’s an intriguing idea with the length the starters are giving and how effective Bartolo Colon has been. Other than the big three in the back of the pen and Colon, here’s how many appearances and innings the other relievers have:
- Jon Niese – 2 appearances, 0.2 IP
- Hansel Robles – 1 appearance, 1.0 IP
- Erik Goeddel* – 1 appearance, 0 IP
- Sean Gilmartin* – 0 appearances
Note: Gilmartin replaced Goeddel on the NLCS roster.
Overall, the Mets have not needed to go deep into the bullpen. However, I would still be loathe to reduce the number of available pitchers. First, Steven Matz is not going deep into games. If this continues and one other starter falters, the Mets bullpen is a disaster for the rest of the World Series. Second, it’s not necessary.
Salvador Perez used to be elite in throwing out runners. Just last year he threw out 42% of would be base stealers. That was tops in the AL. That percentage has dipped to 31%. In this postseason, baserunners have been successful six of seven tries against Perez, including three in the ninth inning last night.
The long story, short is you can run on Perez. You just need to pick your spots. Accordingly, you don’t need to deplete a bigger team need. With the way the Mets ran in the NLCS, they don’t need a super pinch runner. They just need to continue what they’re doing.
That means unfortunately they don’t have a need for EY in the World Series roster.
One of the reasons The Natural is my favorite baseball movie is because it focuses on everything that makes baseball great. It showed baseball as a romantic, mythical, redemptive and magical sport. It also crushed the idea of jinxes in the sport.
If you remember the movie as well as I do, you remember Pop lamenting he was cursed. That’s why he never win the pennant. He should’ve gone into farming like his father said. Instead, he needed players to win. Players like the farmboy, Roy Hobbes, to get him that pennant. With one swing of the bat, Roy Hobbes showed jinxes aren’t real:
The Mets also showed there was no such thing as jinxes. You could argue they were tempting fate, but it really wasn’t the case. Whether it was the Mets website prematurely listing the Mets as the pennant winners . . .
. . . or Yoenis Cespedes prematurely ready to party . . .
. . . or Ruben Tejada pre-ordering special bottles of Johnny Walker Blue:
Despite all of that, this happened:
So no, I don’t believe in jinxes. Now, would anybody like to join me for some sesame chicken in Tuesday?
Today is widely known as Back to Future Day because this was the day Marty McFly went to 2015:
Watching Back to the Future Part II in theaters, I remember thinking 2015 was so far away. I remember watching the Mets during this year, I thought the World Series was so far away. Let’s travel back to see the Mets starting lineups:
April 21, 2015 Mets 7 – Braves 1
- Curtis Granderson RF
- Juan Lagares CF
- Lucas Duda 1B
- Michael Cuddyer LF
- Daniel Murphy 2B
- Eric Campbell 3B
- Kevin Plawecki C
- Wilmer Flores SS
- Jon Niese P
May 21, 2015 Mets 5 – Cardinals 0
- Juan Lagares CF
- Wilmer Flores SS
- Lucas Duda 1B
- Michael Cuddyer LF
- Daniel Murphy 2B
- John Mayberry, Jr. RF
- Eric Campbell 3B
- Kevin Plawecki C
- Jacob deGrom P
June 21, 2015 Braves 1 – Mets 0
- Curtis Granderson RF
- Juan Lagares CF
- Lucas Duda 1B
- Michael Cuddyer LF
- Wilmer Flores SS
- Kevin Plawecki C
- Dilson Herrera 2B
- Eric Campbell 3B
- Matt Harvey P
July 21, 2015 Mets 7 – Nationals 2
- Curtis Granderson RF
- Ruben Tejada SS
- Lucas Duda 1B
- Daniel Murphy 3B
- Wilmer Flores 2B
- Kirk Nieuwenhuis LF
- Kevin Plawecki C
- Jacob deGrom P
- Juan Lagares CF
August 21, 2015 Mets 14 – Rockies 9
- Curtis Granderson RF
- Daniel Murphy 3B
- Yoenis Cespedes CF
- Lucas Duda 1B
- Wilmer Flores SS
- Kelly Johnson 2B
- Travis d’Arnaud C
- Michael Conforto LF
- Bartolo Colon P
September 21, 2015 Mets 4 – Braves 0
- Curtis Granderson RF
- Daniel Murphy 3B
- Yoenis Cespedes CF
- Lucas Duda 1B
- Travis d’Arnaud C
- Kelly Johnson 2B
- Michael Conforto LF
- Wilmer Flores SS
- Jon Niese P
October 21, 2015 (estimated)
- Curtis Granderson RF
- David Wright 3B
- Daniel Murphy 2B
- Yoenis Cespedes CF
- Lucas Duda 1B
- Travis d’Arnaud
- Michael Conforto LF
- Wilmer Flores SS
- Steven Matz P
Looking over these lineups, it was not until August that anyone could believe the Mets had an offense that could be capable of winning in October. Now, Mets fans believe this team can’t be beat. I hoping that’s the case tonight.
I want to see the Mets Back to the World Series.
It’s that time again. With the Mets up 3-0 in the NLCS, it’s time to bring this up again:
Every single time a team goes up 3-0 in any series, we have to bring up the time the Yankees choked in 2004. It’ll be an even bigger storyline than it normally would be because Theo Epstein is now with the Cubs.
I remember I was in school when that happened. When the Red Sox went down 0-3, I remove telling a friend of mine the Red Sox could do it. I pointed out that the Red Sox still had Curt Schilling and Pedro Martinez. Much of his response can not be provided on a family friendly site. The gist of it was two-fold:
- This was the Red Sox and stuff like that doesn’t happen to them; and
- Red Sox fans did not see Mets fans as brother-in-arms against the Yankees because of 1986.
I was optimistic because I was a Mets fan. This was pre-2007. Back then Mets fans always believed anything was possible. You waited for the positive to happen whether it was amazing outfield catches in 1969 or a little roller up the first base line in 1986.
Things changed for Mets fans from 2006-2008. The fans were scared and angry. It lasted that way until the trade for Yoenis Cespedes. From that point forward, it seems like anything is possible. Anything except blowing a 3-0 lead in the LCS.
That’s something a second rate New York franchise does.