Steven Matz
With Steven Matz complaining of a lingering injury, Dan Warthen observed a bullpen session and declared Matz ready to pitch against the Dodgers. Whoops! My bad. That link is from July 3rd.
With today’s workouts, Dan Warthen once again observed Matz’s bullpen session and declared it a success. That makes me nervous. We know what happened the last time Warthen declared a Matz bullpen session a success. Well, alright, Matz did beat the Dodgers. However, he would be shut down for three weeks. I’ll be honest with you. I’ll take that trade off now. It seems like the Mets will as well:
Sandy on Matz: "It's going to be a game day, call I think."
— Matt Ehalt (@MattEhalt) October 6, 2015
Calling Matz a “game time decision” means they’re going to see how he is on Friday when they finalize the rosters, or they’ll keep him on the roster and see how he is for Game Four. I hope he can pitch, but I’m not trusting Warthen.
Truth is Matz is still the best option for Game Four. I hope they give him every chance to make the roster.
Earlier posts addressed the Mets postseason pitching experience as well as the Dodgers postseason offense. While it is interesting to see how theses players fared in October’s past, I’m more interested in seeing how the Mets pitchers have performed against the Dodgers (* – not on team, ** – not on projected roster):
July 3, 2015 Dodger Stadium
Noah Syndergaard ND, 6.0 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 6 K
Hansel Robles W, 2.0 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 3 K
Jeurys Familia S, 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 BB, 1 K
July 4, 2015 Dodger Stadium
Matt Harvey L, 5.0 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 5 BB, 4
Alex Torres* 1.1 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 0 K
Carlos Torres** 0.2 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K
Sean Gilmartin 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K
June 5, 2015 Dodger Stadium
Steven Matz W, 6.0 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 8 K
Logan Verrett** S, 3.0 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 3 K
July 23, 2015 Citi Field
Bartolo Colon L, 8.0 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 4 K
Sean Gilmartin, 0 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 0 K
Carlos Torres** 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 2 K
July 24, 2015 Citi Field
Jon Niese L, 3.0 IP, 8 H, 6 ER, 1 BB, 1 K
Carlos Torres** 3.0 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K
Hansel Robles 2.0 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 2 K
Alex Torres* 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K
July 25, 2015 Citi Field
Matt Harvey W, 7.0 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 4 K
Jenrry Mejia* 1.0 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 3 K
Jeurys Familia 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K
July 26, 2015 Citi Field
Jacob deGrom ND, 7.2 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 8 K
Jeurys Familia, BS, 1.1 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 1 K
Jenrry Mejia, W, 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 1 K
Cumulative
Here are the cumulative stats for the pitchers who are projected to make the playoff roster:
Noah Syndergaard, 0-0, 6.0 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 6 K
Matt Harvey 1-1, 12.0 IP, 13 H, 5 ER, 6 BB, 8 K
Steven Matz 1-0, 6.0 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 8 K
Bartolo Colon 0-1, 8.0 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 4 K
Jon Niese 0-1, 3.0 IP, 8 H, 6 ER, 1 BB, 1 K
Jacob deGrom 0-0, 7.2 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 8 K
Hansel Robles 1-0, 4.0 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 5 K
Jeurys Familia S, BS, 3.1 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 3 K
Sean Gilmartin 1.0 IP, 3 H, 2 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K
Overall, with the exception of Niese, who will not start in the NLDS, have pitched well against the Dodgers. The Mets pitchers faced most of the Dodgers batters they will face in the playoffs. These stats give me confidence the Mets can win this series.
Yesterday, the Mets announced the players they are putting on the taxi squad: Eric Young, Jr., Anthony Recker, Logan Verrett, Eric Campbell, and Bobby Parnell. I think we can separate the remaining players into three categories: (1) players definitely on the roster; (2) players who are in consideration for the roster; and (3) players who are just being sent home. The players definitely on the roster has already been addressed. Here’s the other two categories:
Players under Consideration
Juan Uribe – the Mets want him on the roster, but it does not appear he’s healthy enough to play. I hope that August 23rd pinch hitting appearance was worth it.
Steven Matz – had he not slept on a couch, he would’ve been on the roster. Now the Mets have their fingers crossed he can pitch.
Kirk Nieuwenhuis – he seems to be the front runner for Uribe’s spot. He plays all three OF positions, has speed, and has some pop in his bat. He’s had a rough year, but he’s had some big hits since returning to the Mets.
Dilson Herrera – he’s the Mets best defensive infielder even if he only plays 2B. He’s got potential offensively and defensively. He has not realized his potential yet, but he’s still a right handed bat with pop going into a series with good left handed pitching.
Erik Goeddel – he seems to be a favorite to get a spot in the bullpen if Matz can’t pitch. In limited time, he’s shown a great splitter which has helped him with a 9.2 K/9. He could help with a strikeout in a big spot.
Sean Gilmartin – he’s been the long man, but he has reverse splits with a series with a series with huge left-handed bats. His spot is tenuous mostly with the presence of Colon, Niese, and possibly Matz on the roster.
Players Done for the Year
Johnny Monell – the Mets made their choice with Recker as the third catcher.
Carlos Torres – he took the ball whenever he was asked until he got hurt. He had a skill that helps in the regular season, but he has no room on the playoff roster.
Dario Alvarez – when he finally got a chance to pitch, he was effective. He got a huge strikeout of Bryce Harper back when the division was still in doubt. He go hurt, fought his way back, and he was ineffective.
Eric O’Flaherty – there’s not enough words to describe how bad he’s been, so I’ll keep it short. He’s horrendous.
There are still important decisions to be made. I know a lot of it hinges on Matz. I anticipate this will be a tight series, and these final choices may have a real impact. I hope they pick the right players.
Well, it seems I was wrong about Eric Young, Jr. I can’t say I am too upset about it. It seems like the last man on the roster will be Kirk Nieuwenhuis, although I still think Dilson Herrera is getting a long look as he’s not on the taxi squad.
With that said, here’s my re-revised NLDS roster projection.
Catchers
1. Travis d’Arnaud
2. Kevin Plawecki
Infielders
3. Lucas Duda
4. Daniel Murphy
5. David Wright
6. Ruben Tejada
7. Wilmer Flores
8. Kelly Johnson
Outfielders
9. Michael Conforto
10. Yoenis Cespedes
11. Curtis Granderson
12. Michael Cuddyer
13. Juan Lagares
14. Kirk Nieuwenhuis
Starting Pitchers
15. Jacob deGrom
16. Noah Sundergaard
17. Matt Harvey
18. Bartolo Colon
Bullpen
19. Jeurys Familia
20. Addison Reed
21. Tyler Clippard
22. Hansel Robles
23. Jon Niese
24. Erik Goeddel
25. Sean Gilmartin
If he’s healthy, and he won’t be, Juan Uribe would replace Nieuwenhuis. Also, I’m not putting Steven Matz on my projected roster because he didn’t pitch. If I hear differently with the Instructuonal League appearance, I may still leave him off the projected roster.
I can’t trust the Mets to be honest on the topic. If I’m convinced, then I would slot him in the rotation moving Colon to the bullpen. That would then bump Gilmartin from the roster.
I’m not calling this 2.0. To me that would indicate that I will make a number of changes, but I wanted to show you my work product. There’s nothing wrong with that, but that’s not my intention when I share my projections.
However, there has been another major development with Steven Matz‘s back. As I said yesterday, I was not going to trust he was going to pitch until he actually pitches.
Catchers
1. Travis d’Arnaud
2. Kevin Plawecki
Infielders
3. Lucas Duda
4. Daniel Murphy
5. Kelly Johnson
6. David Wright
7. Ruben Tejada
8. Wilmer Flores
Outfielders
9. Michael Conforto
10. Michael Cuddyer
11. Yoenis Cespedes
12. Juan Lagares
13. Curtis Granderson
Pinch Runner
14. Eric Young, Jr.
Starting Pitchers
15. Jacob deGrom
16. Noah Syndergaard
17. Matt Harvey
18. Bartolo Colon
Relief Pitchers
19. Jeurys Familia
20. Addison Reed
21. Tyler Clippard
22. Hansel Robles
23. Jon Niese
24. Sean Gilmartin
25. Erik Goeddel
As you can see, the only change I made between the projections was exchanging Matz for Goeddel. I chose Goeddel because he’s been pretty good lately, and he can generate strikeouts with his splitter.
I still think there are two other players under consideration: Kirk Nieuwenhuis and Dilson Herrera. Kirk has been good lately, has some power, can run, and can play all three OF positions. However, since he’s a left handed bat going into a series with a lot of LHP, I don’t think the Mets will put him on the roster.
I think Dilson is getting consideration because he’s a right handed bat and definitively the team’s best defensive second baseman. With Flores’ back injury, Herrera is a definite possibility. What hurts him most is he only plays 2B. As I said in another post, the presence of Murphy and Johnson could alleviate those concerns.
However, for right now, I think the Mets give EY the edge, especially because he’s a Terry Collins favorite. If anything else happens, I’ll put out another revised projection.
Quick question for everyone: what is the Mets goal for the rest of the season? Wrong. It’s not getting Homefield advantage. It’s getting the team ready for the playoffs.
In order for that to happen, here’s what needs to get done:
- Steven Matz needs to get five innings on Saturday or Sunday meaning a short start for either Jacob deGrom or Matt Harvey;
- You don’t risk David Wright‘s back playing on a sloppy or wet field;
- Yoenis Cespedes needs to be in Germany or anywhere that can aggressively treat a bruise;
- Jon Niese needs to pitch in two games this weekend;
- Play Dilson Herrera at multiple positions to see if he can make the playoff roster;
- No wasted at bats to Eric Campbell, Anthony Recker, Johnny Monell, or anyone that the Mets are not considering putting on the playoff roster;
- Same goes for the relievers even if there is a blowout. They need to stay fresh;
- Get Travis d’Arnaud back on track;
- Allow Michael Conforto to hit against some lefties because he’s eventually going to have to face one in October; and
- Get out of the weekend healthy.
If the Mets accomplish the above, they will be in a strong position entering the playoffs. Homefield advantage is secondary to this. If the Mets get it, great. If they don’t, it may inure to their benefit. Overall, I’m absolutely convinced the Mets do not need homefield advantage in the NLDS to win.
The Mets have not had the best history when it comes to handling injuries:
https://twitter.com/jareddiamond/status/648960775751639040
They’ve been really bad when it comes to diagnosing and treating back injuries. The Mets recently botched the diagnosis and treatment of Lucas Duda‘s back problems. Now, they’re doing it with Steven Matz on the eve of the NLDS.
Originally, it was classified as a problem with Matz’s side. This was a problem in and of itself with his prior injury. However, everyone was rest assured that Matz would start on Thursday instead of Wednesday. Then, it was discovered it wasn’t a side injury; it was a back injury. And oh yeah, his Thursday start was going to be skipped. He’s not going to pitch on Friday either.
In fact, he’s not going to start for the rest of the regular season. Collins is going to try to find five innings on Saturday or Sunday; two games that may never get played due to rain. There’s been no explanation why today is not a possibility. I’m starting to wonder what the excuse will be on Saturday and/or Sunday when Mstz doesn’t pitch.
I can’t trust that he’ll be available for the playoffs in the rotation or the bullpen. No one should.
In an effort to pitch in the playoffs, Jon Niese volunteered to pitch in the bullpen. His first two appearances did not go well, but not all hope is lost. There are still some reasons why the Mets may want him on the NLDS roster, namely:
I think this is why Jon Niese will be on the postseason roster.
Chase Utley: 3 for 32 against him
Adrian Gonzalez: 0 for 9 against him
— Mark Simon (@MarkASimonSays) October 1, 2015
With those numbers against the Dodgers best hitter, there’s a spot for you on the team. He would most likely get the call when/if Gonzalez is up in a big spot.
Here’s his head-to-head data against some of the other Dodger players:
Jimmy Rollins 12-54, 3 doubles, 4 walks, 8 strikeouts
Carl Crawford 0-3
Andre Ethier 4-10, 2 strikeouts
A.J.Ellis 2-11, 1 double, two walks, 1 strikeout
Chris Heisey 3-10, 1 homerun, 1 strikeout
Howie Kendrick 1-7, 1 strikeout
Basically, he pitched pretty well against them. If not for 2015 arguably being his worst year and the presence of better options, you could make the argument he could start.
Besides his success against the Dodgers, Steven Matz has been dealing with a balky back. This means the Mets will need to have Bartolo Colon start Game Four or be ready to pitch in Game Four if Marz goes down. This means Niese may need to be ready as the long man in Colon’s stead
The other reason why he may be out there is the Mets don’t have a true LOOGY. They’re going to need someone to get those lefties out in the NLDS, and I’m not sure they’re going to trust Hansel Robles, even if he has the best numbers against lefties. If you’re going to insist on a lefty against a lefty, you might as well use one who’s had success against the Dodgers.
With three games left, there’s not much time to get him fully up to speed in the bullpen. At best, he probably can pitch in two more games. No matter what happens in those games, it will be a gamble to put Niese in the bullpen.
I’ll take that gamble over the gamble of having someone else pitching to Gonzalez in a big spot.
After the Mets clinched, the rumblings began that Bartolo Colon may be in the postseason rotation:
https://twitter.com/jareddiamond/status/648148020169732096
Regardless of Steven Matz‘s recent sofa injury, it seems like Colon may have had an inside track to the NLDS rotation anyway:
Sandy said Colon's experience vs Matz inexperience is a factor in the 4th rotation spot in the playoffs. #mets
— Michael Baron (@michaelgbaron) September 29, 2015
There’s some merit to the decision. Experience can help calm nerves in the playoffs. Colon doesn’t walk anyone. Most importantly, he was good in his only start against the Dodgers this year (even if it was a loss).
However, I’m having some trouble trying to reconcile Colon in the rotation with the fact that Matz will definitely be on the playoff roster. The reason why I’m having trouble is because the Mets have been steadfast in saying Matz will not pitch in the bullpen. Therefore, I think the Mets announced, without announcing it, Matz will be the fourth starter.
I think it’s the right move. The Dodgers have a lot of lefties in the lineup. Colon has not been good against over .500 teams. Matz has better stuff. It’s time to get Matz and his grandfather ready for Game 4 . . . if necessary.
Look, this is Sandy Alderson’s team. He decided to keep the players he kept and trade the players he traded. He pulled off the trades and signed the free agents. However, he was able to do a lot of what he did because he was left with good players after Omar Minaya was terminated.
Here are the players in the 40 man roster who have a link to Omar Minaya (asterisked players are players obtained with players combined by Minaya and Alderson):
Jerry Blevins – obtained for 2010 draft pick Matt den Dekker.
Eric Campbell – 2008 draft pick.
Darrell Ceciliani – 2009 draft pick.
Travis d’Arnaud – part of the R.A. Dickey trade. Dickey was a free agent signing. Josh Thole was a 2005 draft pick. Mike Nickeas was initially obtained by trade in 2006.
Jacob deGrom – 2010 draft pick.
Lucas Duda – 2007 draft pick.
Jeurys Familia – 2007 amateur free agent signing.
Wilmer Flores – 2007 amateur free agent signing.
Erik Goeddel – 2010 draft pick.
Matt Harvey – 2010 draft pick
Dilson Herrera* – part of Marlon Byrd/John Buck trade. Buck was part of the Dickey trade (see d’Arnaud).
Juan Lagares – 2006 amateur free agent signing.
Steven Matz – 2009 draft pick.
Jenrry Mejia – 2007 amateur free agent signing.
Akeel Morris -2010 draft pick.
Daniel Murphy – 2006 draft pick.
Bobby Parnell – 2005 draft pick.
Addison Reed* – obtained in exchange for Matt Koch and Miller Diaz (signed by Mets in 2009).
Hansel Robles – 2008 amateur free agent.
Noah Syndergaard – part of Dickey trade (see d’Arnaud).
Ruben Tejada – 2006 amateur free agent.
Again, these players are in the roster because Alderson kept them. The decision of who to keep and trade is important. That is what makes them Alderson’s players and team. Additionally, while It was Alderson that hired Terry Collins, it was Minaya who brought him into the Mets organization.
However, it is important to truly acknowledge Minaya’s role, especially when he has been unfairlyand wrongly marginalized.
You see I was on the same Jet Blue flight as Omar Minaya. The photo with this post was Minaya and me in the terminal before the flight. He was accessible to Mets fans who wanted to shake his hand and take a picture. No one, and I mean no one, had the “courage” to mock him on the flight.
Additionally, this should dispel the notion that Minaya left the Mets with a depleted farm system. On the contrary, he built a strong farm system that helped make up this team. Minaya had his faults, and he probably deserved to be fired when he was. That doesn’t mean we should ignore his work.
It doesn’t mean that we shouldn’t extend our gratitude to him for what he left behind.