Michael Cuddyer
There are many thoughts about this offseason that baffles me. One is this notion that since the Mets offered Daniel Murphy a qualifying offer, it doesn’t matter if the Mets sign a player whose received a qualifying offer. The premise is the two moves cancel each other out.
For the uninitiated, the way the qualifying offer system works, if you sign a player who was offered a qualifying offer by another team, you forfeit your first round pick. In exchange, the team that lost a player has a pick tacked on to the end of the first round.
The only exception to this is if you have a Top 10 pick. In that instance, you forfeit your second round pick. The team losing the player still has a pick added to the end of the first round.
Right now, the Mets have the 24th pick in the 2016 draft. That pick will go higher if someone between 11-23 signs Murphy. In addition, the Mets will get another pick somewhere after the Cardinals and the start of the second round.
Now, I don’t buy the cancel each other nonsense. People are saying moving down a few slots is not a big deal. What’s the difference between picking 24th and say 33rd. That’s flawed thinking for a few reasons.
The first is their focus is misplaced. Say Murphy signs with the Rockies as reported. This means the Mets keep their 24th pick and receive the 31st pick (depending on how many teams lose a player in free agency and their W-L records). That’ll give you two picks in the top say 35. If the Mets forfeit their first round pick, their second pick will be in the 50’s to 60’s.
Now, draft picks aren’t a guarantee, but I’d assume that the player picked at 24 will be thought of as a better player than the player picked at 33 and the player picked 52. In addition, wouldn’t you rather have three picks in the top 60 as opposed to two?
This also brings me to my second point. The Mets farm system is decent, but it’s taken some hits lately:
- There was no 2015 first round pick due to the signing of Michael Cuddyer;
- Trading potential future ace Casey Meisner for Tyler Clippard; and
- Trading an even better pitcher in Michael Fulmer for Yoenis Cespedes.
In essence, the Mets could benefit from bringing in some more talented players. The idea here is to create a flow of prospects to the major league level. If you lose someone, you want to have a player waiting in the wings. If you need to make a trade, you want a well regarded prospect to make the trade you need to make.
Now, if the Mets feel they are one player away, sign that player. The goal is to win the World Series, and the Mets are so close. However, you have to be right. The Mets thought they were close to becoming a contender coming into the 2015 season, so they signed Cuddyer. Turns out they were right, but only after trading for Cespedes and calling up Noah Syndergaard and Michael Conforto.
Moral of the story is you have to be right otherwise you have a $12 million bench player instead of a first round pick who could’ve been a stud. Remember, prospects are always worth more than aging, expensive bench players. That’s why you don’t just sign someone with a qualifying offer attached to him.
You only sign that player if they’d be worth a big prospect because that’s what you’re doing.
Goumg into last year, the Mets thought they had sufficiently addressed the offense by signing Michael Cuddyer to play LF and John Mayberry, Jr. to bat against lefties and pinch hit.
Well Mayberry was so bad he was released, and Cuddyer had a disappointing season even before the knee injury. Cuddyer hit .259/.309/.391 this year. He looked old and slow during the postseason. He will enter the 2016 as a $12.5 million bench player. Just keep that in mind as you watch the Mets moves this offseason.
The reason Cuddyer will be a bench player is Michael Conforto. Due to Cuddyer’s knee injury and a historicall inept offense, Conforto was called up to the majors from AA in late July. He would play in 56 games hitting .270/.335/.506 with 14 doubles, 9 homers, and 26 RBIs. Also, he was much better than advertised defensively:
In the limited time Conforto was with the Mets, his UZR was 7.5, which means he is an above average to great defensive left fielder. As he learns the position, he could one day compete for a Gold Glove. With an accurate arm like his, he may very well replace Curtis Granderson in a few years.
At the plate, we saw the promise he has, and how he’s delivering on that promise. This upcoming year, the Mets will make him an everyday player and not just a platoon player. He’s shown he can handle lefties and righties in the minors. We saw him do it in the World Series:
All postseason he took good at bats even if the results weren’t there. He did have three homeruns. One was in his first postseason at bat against Zack Greinke of all people.
Conforto has what it takes to be just not just a great hitter but a great overall player. If you had Conforto for the whole year, his numbers would’ve averaged out to .270/.335/.506 with 41 doubles, 26 homers, and 75 RBI. Those are All Star numbers. If Conforto improves just a little next year, he will be a star in this league. He will be the best player on the Mets.
He’s the reason no matter what the Mets do in the offseason, the biggest upgrade they make is in left field.
The Mets have many tough offseason decisions to make. Right now the most pressing decision is Daniel Murphy. The Mets have until Friday to offer Murphy a qualifying offer of a one year $15.8 million offer.
In my opinion, the Mets need to offer Murphy the qualifying offer. The worst case scenario is Murphy accepts the deal. Yes, you could argue he’s not worth $15.8 million. However, it’s a slight one-year overpay considering he was projected to receive a 4 year $52 million contract ($13 million a year). That was before his huge postseason. In any event, it seems the Mets will extend the offer.
Based upon the prospective offers Murpy will receiving, he’s likely to reject the qualifying offer. If so, and Murphy signs elsewhere, the Mets get another team’s first round pick (top 10 protected). If and when he rejects it, things will begin to get interesting because the Mets need to make a tough decision. Do you re-sign Murphy?
If he departs, Murphy will be leaving a sizeable gap behind him. He was the number three hitter on a pennant winner. On a high strikeout team, he is a contact hitter. His power has increased while working with Kevin Long.
Murphy is also the starting second baseman. Now, second is a position where the Mets may have options. The first option is the 21 year old Dilson Herrera. Reading all the scouting reports, he’s a younger Murphy with potential to be more. Herrera has hit at every level. He has more speed. He is raw defensively and has the tools be be good at second, but right now he isn’t.
Now, Herrera struggled during his call-up this year. He hit .211/.311/.367. It doesn’t mean he won’t eventually hit at the big league level. It may just mean it was a short sample size or he’s not ready. In the event he’s not ready, the Mets could elect to shift Wilmer Flores from SS to 2B.
For his career, Murphy has hit .288/.331/.424. His UZR at second was -1.3, which was by far his best year. In the two years prior, he was around a -5.0 player, which means he’s a below average defensive player, which is a shock to no one.
This past year, his first full season in the majors, Flores hit .265/.302/.425. Overall, Flores is not the hitter Murphy is, even if he shows some promise. His UZR in his limited time at second was 1.7, which means he’s average defensively, better than Murphy, but still average. It also leaves a gap at SS. Flores improved as the year progressed. Additionally, we still don’t know how well Ruben Tejada is going to bounce back.
Despite possibly being the best second base option, the Mets may benefit from his versatility. Murphy can play first and third. With David Wright‘s back, he’s limited. He can’t play more than four games in a row. Also, Lucas Duda is prone to some dry spells. Murphy could offset the gaps created by Wright’s back and Duda’s dry spells.
On the flip side, fellow Mets free agent Kelly Johnson does the same thing. He has the added benefit of playing the corner OF positions. He’s also a left handed bat like Murphy. He’s a .251/.331/.424 hitter, which again is worse than Murphy. However, Johnson is seen as a bench bat that won’t cost much money.
That’s the thing. Johnson is a bench player that won’t cost much money. The Mets should bring him back, but it shouldn’t have any impact upon their Murphy decision.
The main reason I keep thinking that Murphy needs to come back is the fact that the Mets just lost the World Series. They were so close. We know the pitching will be there, and it will be even better. However, the Mets have to keep a competitive offensive team on the field.
We don’t know what the Mets are going to get from Wright over 162 games. Many assume Yoenis Cespedes is all but gone. The Mets will be losing their third and fourth place hitters. Why should anyone expect this team to be any better next year?
There’s not really any upgrades over Murphy on the market. If you won’t spend on Murphy, why are we to believe they’ll sign someone like Ben Zobrist. Yes, Zobrist is the better player now, but he’s going to get a similar contract. Also, he’s five years older than Murphy. Murphy is in his prime. Zobrist is close to retirement.
If someone steps up and offers Murphy a stupid amount of money, you have to let him walk. He’s a nice, not great, player. I’m qualifying a stupid amount as a contract around four years $70 million. Eventually, you’re going to have to pay these pitchers, and Murphy can’t stand in the way of that.
However, if the market is reasonable, Murphy has to return. Hopefully, the qualifying offer will keep it reasonable. I say hope because the market rarely is. I mean, did you see the contract some team gave Michael Cuddyer last year? That’s the thing. All it takes is one team to do something irrational to turn Murphy into an ex-Met.
I’m hoping it doesn’t happen. Im hoping the Mets have the money. If they don’t, maybe they can offset some of the cost by getting a Chapstick sponsorship deal?
All jokes aside, the Mets need to re-sign Murphy.
Coming into the postseason, Juan Lagares was nothing more than a defensive replacement. In Game 1 of the NLDS, the Mets went with Michael Cuddyer over Lagares and Michael Conforto against Clayton Kershaw.
Cuddyer was so bad in the field that the Mets haven’t given him another start. The next three times an opponent started a lefty, the Mets would go with Lagares. This is in addition to his appearances as a defensive replacement. While Lagares has not played to his usual defensive standards this postseason, he’s shined offensively.
Lagares has a triple slash line of .368/.400/.474 with six runs, two doubles, and two stolen bases. In Game 1, he created a run by singling after an extended at bat, stealing a base, and scoring on an error by Eric Hosmer. Conversely, Conforto has struggled.
After homering in his first postseason at bat against Zack Greinke, he hasn’t hit. Literally. After that homerun, Conforto is 0-19 with a walk and six strikeouts. It looks like he’s having good at bats. He’s hit some balls hard, but the results aren’t there. Yes, he’s a much better hitter than Lagares. However, Lagares is hot, and he’s cold.
Normally, Lagares would sit against the Royals Game 3 starter, Yordano Ventura, because he’s righty. However, Terry Collins doesn’t seem inclined to sit Lagares:
Terry Collins indicates good chance of Juan Lagares in CF with Yoenis Cespedes in LF, but lineup not written yet.
— Adam Rubin (@AdamRubinMedia) October 29, 2015
Here, I can’t fault Collins either way. On the one hand you go with the hot bat and better glove, even if he’s not producing as much defensively as you would like. On the other you have a good hitter who just can’t buy a hit, but you know he will be good to very good defensively.
In the end, I’d lean towards Conforto. It’s what you’ve done all year. Lagares has shown he can impact a game late by coming in for defense or by being a spark plug. Also, I like Conforto’s approach right now. He’s not getting hits, but he’s working the count and varying his deliveries.
Whatever the decision, the Mets will be fine. They’re both very capable players, who have a lot to offer a team. I’m confident either or both will have a big hit it defensive play b
Remember when #PanicCity was a thing? I do too. It was justified then. When Sandy Alderson bestowed the moniker on Mets fans, here was the previous night’s starting lineup:
- Curtis Granderson
- Ruben Tejada
- Lucas Duda
- Michael Cuddyer
- Wilmer Flores
- Darrell Ceciliani
- Kevin Plawecki
- Jacob deGrom
- Dilson Herrera
Look at that lineup. The number two and five hitters rotate in the eighth spot, at least until Tejada went down. The number three hitter bats fifth. The cleanup hitter is on the bench. The seventh hitter is a backup. The sixth and ninth hitters are not on the playoff roster.
This is a different team than that one. This team was one out away from winning Game One. They had a bad game against an erratic pitcher, who has pitched well against the Mets in the past. Why must it be more than that?
We just watched our young pitchers now down an incredible Cubs offense. We know good pitching beats good hitting. It’s the reason the Mets are in the World Series. This isn’t the same old Mets offense. They can actually hit now.
The Mets are getting a needed day off to collect themselves. They’re going to set things straight. They’re going out tomorrow, and they’re going to play their best game of the year. Then they’ll go out in Game 4 and do the same thing, and so on and so on.
Ya Gotta Believe!
Last night was a tough loss. It was bad from the beginning. Yoenis Cespedes turns a flyball into an inside the park homerun. The Mets blew a two run lead. Yet, the Mets were in position to win Game 1. Unfortunately, Jeurys Familia blew the save with one bad pitch.
I’ll tell you what. If the Mets are in the same position again tonight, I like the Mets chances. Familia rarely blows a save. After his last blown save, he had 16 saves with a 1.30 ERA and a 1.048 WHIP. Before last night, he was 5/5 in save attempts with a 0.00 ERA and a 0.207 WHIP. He’s not blowing another save.
Also, keep in mind almost everything had to break right for the Royals to win. They had a routine flyball turn into an inside the park homerun. Matt Harvey had to blow a 3-1 lead. He doesn’t blow leads like that. Twice the Mets picked themselves off the mat and twice got the lead. As much as the Royals fought back, the Mets did as well.
Another important development was Wilmer Flores was terrific at SS last night. He made all the plays. At one point, he ranged into the hole, made a nice backhand pickup, and made a strong throw to first getting a speedy Alcides Escobar. He’s played this well since Ruben Tejada went down.
We also know Michael Cuddyer is not getting three at bats in another World Series game. In fact, it’s possible he won’t get three more at bats in total during the rest of the series. He killed two rallies. He shouldn’t be in a position to kill another rally.
Also, for all the talk of the Royals bullpen, the Mets bullpen was good. Addison Reed was terrific. Tyler Clippard needed some help from Familia, but the Mets did not allow a leadoff double to lead to a run. Jon Niese was terrific. It looks like the Mets bullpen can hold up in this series.
Speaking of bullpens, the Royals used Game 4 starter, Chris Young, for three innings. The Mets were over anxious in extra innings against him. However, it can’t hurt to have seen him once. Also, he threw 53 pitches, and he will have to come back on three days rest for Game 4.
With Johnny Cueto always being a risk for a meltdown, the Royals may need to go to the bullpen early. They will need to do it again in Game 4. The Royals terrific bullpen could quickly become taxed. Their greatest strength can quickly become a liability.
Finally, as we all know momentum is the next day’s starting pitcher. That starting pitcher is Jacob deGrom. He’s been the Mets ace. In the postseason, he is 3-0 with a 1.80 ERA, 1.000 WHIP, and a 12.2 K/9. The Mets still have the starting pitching edge. The Mets have seen the Royals up close and can adjust their pitching accordingly.
All the Mets needed in Kansas City was a split. That’s still on the table. There’s still reason for optimism. They can still win tonight.
Lets Go Mets!
He’s worked hard to get to this point, and the Mets have rewarded the work by adding Juan Uribe to the World Series roster:
Juan Uribe is on the #Mets World Series roster. Matt Reynolds is off.
— Steve Gelbs (@SteveGelbs) October 27, 2015
The Case for Uribe
This team turned around with the Uribe trade. He’s been on World Series winners in 2005 and 2010. You’re hoping for a little five year luck there.
Unlike most teams, the Royals have two lefties in the pen with Danny Duffy and Franklin Morales. Adding Uribe gives the Mets an extra right handed bat off the bench. After Michael Cuddyer the Mets can turn to Uribe. This allows Juan Lagares to be a defensive replacement, and Kevin Plawecki to be ready for a Travis d’Arnaud injury. Don’t worry I tapped on every piece of wood within the nearest square mile after typing that.
Additionally, it lengthens the bench. In a way, it’s amazing the Mets playing with a 24 man roster never caught up with them. In actuality, there was no way Matt Reynolds was going to play. At least now, the Mets don’t have a dead roster spot.
I have to say it’s a pretty convincing case. I still don’t like the move.
The Case Against Uribe
The last time the Mets thought Uribe could go, he exacerbated his chest injury. If that happens in the World Series, the Mets will be burning through 3-4 players in one at bat (original player, Uribe, new batter, defensive replacement). If this happens in Citi Field, this team is in real trouble.
The next reason is your backup SS is now Kelly Johnson. He’s only played one game at SS, and that was this year. He’s the DH in Game One. If anything happens to Wilmer Flores, the Mets have a terrible choice to make. Do you lose the DH? Do you move David Wright and his back there? Do you put Uribe there? Or my personal favorite:
Is everyone forgetting they can put Jacob deGrom at SS in a pinch?
— Joe DeMayo (@PSLToFlushing) October 27, 2015
Yes, the Mets can put Reynolds on the roster for the injured player, but that’s only AFTER the game. If anything happens to Flores, you’re playing a game without a SS [insert Flores isn’t a SS jokes here]. How quickly the Mets have forgotten that Flores almost had to leave Game 4 of the NLCS after hitting his head.
Furthermore, you’re risking a lot for someone who’s not a terrific hitter. In his playoff career, he has hit .204/.241/.338. As a Met, he has hit .219/.301/.430. As a pinch hitter this year, he has hit .190/.320/.333. He’s 0-4 this year as a DH. It’s just too much to risk for someone that really only plays third and just doesn’t hit the way you think he does.
Yes, he can change a game and a series with one swing of the bat. It still doesn’t change the fact that this move is extremely risky. I hope he does not only because he’s a Mets fan, but also he’s a big part of this team.
The Mets have been waiting 15 years to go back to the World Series. They’ve been waiting 29 years for a World Series title. Many Mets fans haven’t seen or don’t remember 1986. Mets fans aren’t the only ones who have been waiting.
There are players who have played their whole careers without playing in a World Series. The usual example is the late, great Ernie Banks. While none of the current Mets will be joining that group, there are many who have waited a long time to get here:
Bartolo Colon 18 years
Michael Cuddyer 15 years
David Wright 12 years
Tyler Clippard 9 years
Jon Niese 8 years
Daniel Murphy 7 years
It’s a long time to wait. These guys have earned it. They should each be proud of themselves. Twenty-four hours from now, they’ll be playing in their first World Series game.
It’s been a long time, but I can’t wait.
The Royals named Edison Volquez as their Game One starter. The Volquez-Johnny Cueto decision wasn’t like what the Mets faced before in the playoffs. However, it merited consideration, and the Royals went with Volquez.
This year Volquez was 13-9 with a 3.55 ERA, 3.82 FIP, 1.308 WHIP, and a 7.0 K/9. That’s where the good ends for Volquez. In his career, he is 1-4 with a 6.56 ERA, 1.543 WHIP, and a 6.9 K/9. He’s been slightly better this postseason going 1-2 with a 4.32 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, and a 8.1 K/9. In the end, what matters most is how he’s pitched against the Mets:
Curtis Granderson 3-12 with 2 HR, 3 RBI, 4 BB, 4 K
David Wright 6-25 with 1 HR, 4 RBI, 5 BB, 4 K
Daniel Murphy 3-17 with 1 RBI, 1 BB, 1 K
Yoenis Cespedes 0-2 with 1 K
Lucas Duda 3-15 with 1 HR, 3 RBI, 2 BB, 10 K
Travis d’Arnaud 0-0
Michael Conforto 0-0
Wilmer Flores 1-6 with 1 double
Juan Lagares 2-12 with 1 BB and 2 K
Combined 18-99 (.182 BA), 12 BB (.270 OBP), 1 double, 4 HR (.253 slugging), 11 RBI, and 22 K
Here’s how the bench has fared against Volquez:
Michael Cuddyer 1-6 with 1 double
Kelly Johnson 4-14 with 1 double, 2 RBI, 3 BB, 5 K
Kirk Nieuwenhuis 1-3 with 2 K
Kevin Plawecki 0-0
Matt Reynolds 0-0
Bench 6-23 (.263) with 3 BB (.346 OBP), 2 double (.467 slugging), 2 RBI, 1 K
In essence, Volquez had pitched well against the Mets. However, the Mets players have gotten to him. When the Mets have made contact, they’ve hit homeruns. It’ll be tough to hit homers in a stadium like Kauffman.
Fortunately, the Mets have better pitching than the Royals. If the Mets pitch how they should, they will need just one of those blasts to win the game, similar to the NLDS.
Sometimes, there’s no rhyme or reason for things. I think this sums up Johnny Cueto‘s 2015 season. He went from a hitters’ ballpark with poor defense to a pitchers ballpark with terrific defense and got worse. It doesn’t make sense especially when you consider he left the best division in baseball for one of the worst.
With the Reds, Cueto averaged 6.2 innings per start going 7-6 with a 2.62 ERA, 3.20 FIP, 0.934 WHIP, and a 8.3 K/9. With the Royals, he averaged 6.0 innings per start with a 4.76 ERA, 4.06 FIP, 1.461 WHIP, and a 6.2 K/9. Sure, he was incredible in the clinching game of the NLDS, but his two other starts were terrible. In Game Three of the ALCS, he took the loss allowing six hits, eight earned, four walks, and two strikeouts over two innings.
Historically, Cueto hasn’t faired well against the Mets either. In his career, he is 3-4 against the Mets with a 4.02 ERA, 1.369 WHIP, and a 10.0 K/9. At Citi Field, he is slightly better with a 2-2 record, 3.60 ERA, 1.267 WHIP, and a 10.5 K/9. The Mets will face him at Kauffman Stadium in Game One. There he is 3-5 with a 3.88 ERA, 1.294 WHIP, and a 6.9 K/9. He’s prime to get hit by the Mets. The only issues is how do these Mets hit him?
Here’s the numbers against the presumed Game One starting lineup:
Curtis Granderson 3-12 with 2 HR, 3 RBI, 4 BB, 4 K
David Wright 6-25 with 1 HR, 4 RBI, 5 BB, 4 K
Daniel Murphy 3-17 with 1 RBI, 1 BB, 1 K
Yoenis Cespedes 0-2 with 1 K
Lucas Duda 3-15 with 1 HR, 3 RBI, 2 BB, 10 K
Travis d’Arnaud 0-0
Michael Conforto 0-0
Wilmer Flores 1-6 with 1 double
Juan Lagares 2-12 with 1 BB, and 2 K
Combined 17-89 (.191 BA) with 12 BB (.287 OBP), 1 double, 4 HR (.337 slugging), 11 RBI, and 21 K
Here’s how the projected bench has hit against him:
Kelly Johnson 1-6 with 1 HR, 2 RBI, 2 BB, 1 K
Michael Cuddyer 1-6 with 1 double
Kirk Nieuwenhuis 1-3 with 2 K
Kevin Plawecki 0-3 with 1 K
Matt Reynolds 0-0
Bench Combined 3-15 (.200 BA) with 2 BB (.294 OBP), 1 double, 1 HR (.467 slugging), 2 RBI, and 4 K
In case the Mets make a roster change, here’s Uribe’s numbers:
Juan Uribe 2-6 with 1 double, 2 RBI, 2 K
Overall, the Mets have not hit Cueto well. However, prior to Cueto being a Royal no one did. Just last year, Cueto limited batters to a triple slash line of .195/.261/.313. So, where’s the discrepancy in all this? Where’s the hope for Mets fans tomorrow? It’s that Cueto’s numbers are actually no fluke at all. In his career, as the year progresses, he tired and gets hit harder:
March/April .208/.269/.349
May .222/.282/.364
June .235/.298/.367
July .252/.324/.365
August .243/.305/.412
September/October .275/.335/.426
Given these numbers, it’s clear that Cueto can be hit . . . hard. This gives the Mets a Game One advantage. When the goal is to split in Kansas City, the Mets need to utilize this advantage. I think they can and will.