Matt Harvey
Like everyone else, I’ve gone on and on about Ben Zobrist, Daniel Murphy, and the whole second base situation. Now, Zobrist seems to be close to making a decision, and many have speculated he may just become a Met. Honestly, why would he do that?
First and foremost, the obvious reason is the Mets may be offering the most money, which frankly, is a rarity in these situations. Other than that, I can only think of five other reasons Zobrist would want to be a Met:
Sure, the Mets are an NL East team closer to Zobrist’s Tennessee home than an NL West team, and they intend to put him at second where he prefers. The Mets did win the pennant establishing they are ready to win now. There are other nice pieces on the team, but they carry question marks: Curtis Granderson (age), David Wright (back), Travis d’Arnaud (injury history), and Juan Lagares (right handed pitching).
Zobrist would be joining a team losing its #3 and #4 hitters and replacing them both with just him. The Mets also have a bottom third payroll with apparently not much room to increase it despite the additional playoff revenue. Sure, every team has problems, but the other two teams interested in Zobrist will go out and spend. The other options may be more attractive than the Mets.
Washington Nationals
Keep in mind, the Nationals remain a dangerous team. They still have Max Scherzer (who no-hit the Mets) and Stephen Strasburg headlining the rotation. Bryce Harper took his game to the next level and won the MVP award. Anthony Rendon is a very good young player, who may very well be a Top 5 Third Baseman. There are exciting young players like Michael Taylor and Trea Turner.
The Nationals also had the third highest payroll in the sport last year (no one was going higher than the Dodgers and Yankees). They already addressed their biggest problem from last year by firing Matt Williams and hiring Dusty Baker. Dusty has his flaws, but he always seems to get the most out of his players. Lastly, the Nationals have already stated they want Zobrist to play second base.
Overall, the Nationals are still poised to win a lot of games next year, have a lot of terrific pieces, and have the ability to spend the money necessary to be a contender to win the World Series.
San Fransicso Giants
Speaking of contenders to win the World Series, next year is an even numbered year, which means the Giants are due to win the World Series. The Giants were the other team that no-hit the Mets this year.
Overall, there is a lot to like with the Giants. Madison Bumgarner is the best money pitcher in the sport. Buster Posey might just be the best position player in the NL (if it’s not Harper). Bruce Bochy is the best manager in all of baseball as well. There’s also the matter of the Giants hitting coach, who has been doing wonders with some of their younger players.
Gold Glover Brandon Crawford has increasingly hit for more power. Joe Panik has become an underestimated high OBP second baseman (sound familiar?). Matt Duffy showed increased power while finishing second in the Rookie of the Year voting.
Seriously, so what if the Giants want Zobrist to play LF? This is a team built to contend for the long and short team. They also have the sixth highest payroll in baseball. This team has an eye for young talent and is willing to spend to either keep their players or bring in new ones to fill their holes. The Giants have truly created a wonderful organization.
The Decision
If you’re being honest with yourself, and the money is even, why would you pick the Mets? They don’t have the wherewithal to spend the other teams do. The other teams have been addressing needs this offseason, while the Mets have yet to bring someone in to improve their team. It’s still debatable if the Mets have enough money to make another significant move if Zobrist becomes a Met.
If it was me, I’d always pick the Mets because I’m a die hard fan. However, if we’re looking at these teams on paper, I’m not sure the Mets are the most attractive option for any free agent. You have to know that going to the Mets may mean you’re going to be the only major league signing. That’s been pretty much true of ever offseason for the Sandy Alderson regime.
Given the fact that Zobrist wants to win, play second, and stay closer to home, why shouldn’t he pick the Nationals? They have pitching and an arguably better lineup then the Mets. They also have the ability to spend more money than the Mets.
While I would always choose to be a Met, if I’m being honest, a sure with no such loyalty could/should choose differently.
I’ll admit I’m jealous of my son. When you think of the toys you had growing up, there was always one missing. That was interactive sports toys. I know there were video games, but that’s not the same thing. Also, Starting Lineup was a series of collectibles masquerading as kid’s toys.
There’s a new toy series called Oyo Sports. At least, it’s new to me. I didn’t notice them until I saw them in a Mets team store in Citi Field this year. Now, I see them in Modells and toy stores. Basically, they’re Lego men of your favorite teams and athletes:
I would’ve loved to have one of these as a kid. When you incorporate it with the field, it’s amazing. I could imagine being a kid using these sets to not only build my own stadiums around this, but also staging games where the Mets won the World Series every time.
When my son is old enough, I plan on doing that with him (right now we’re still playing with Duplos). In the meantime, I plan to collect as many players I can including his favorite players Daniel Murphy, Lucas Duda, and Matt Harvey. Hopefully, they’ll all still be here.
Right now, I enjoy every moment with my son, and I look forward to doing so much with him. Playing with these Oyo toys is one of them.
Editor’s Note: This was not a paid advertisement or done in any way in conjunction with Oyo. Rather, it’s a mild hint what to get me . . . err my son (yeah that’s it) for Christmas.
There’s always a surprise or two amongst the players who were non-tendered regardless of whether or not the move made sense. It might’ve been surprising to see Greg Holland‘s name out there, but the move made sense.
Holland was slated to possibly receive $11.3 million in arbitration. You can’t pay that to someone who is going to miss all next year due to Tommy John surgery. You can’t pay him that when it’s his last year of team control before he becomes a free agent. The Royals tried to do the prudent thing in offering Holland a two year deal. However, the Royals were rebuffed leading to the non-tender.
The reason the Royals were rebuffed probably had a lot to do with the fact that Scott Boras is his agent. Boras probably wants to shop Holland around looking for the best offer. He should with 145 saves over the past four years. In 2013 and 2014, when he was the full time closer and healthy, he averaged 47 saves with a 1.32 ERA.
When healthy, he’s an elite shutdown closer in the ilk of any closer you want to mention. It’s the reason you would be willing to give him a two year deal. You want to get him on the cheap. He’d be a dream to pair with Jeurys Familia. If he returns to form in 2017, you have a reliever you could extend a Qualifying Offer thereby recouping a possible draft pick.
If I’m the Mets my selling point is how well things went with Matt Harvey (not sarcasm). However, I think Holland is going to go to the team that’ll offer him the most money, which he should. It’s at that point the Mets probably fall out of contention.
It’s a shame too because having that kind of bullpen in place would be another step in making a one year World Series run into a three year period of playoff runs.
For all the rhetoric and rumors about the Mets possibly shopping Matt Harvey this offseason, we discovered there are 217 million reasons why it’s a bad idea. The cost of elite starting pitching is high on the free agent market.
David Price got that huge contract because he’s an ace. For his career, he’s 104-56 with a 3.09 ERA, 3.19 FIP, and a 126 ERA+. His average season is 16-9 with 34 starts, 227 IP, and 216 K. He’s won a Cy Young, and he was second in the voting last year after he went 18-5 with a 2.45 ERA, 161 ERA+, and a 2.78 FIP. By any measure, he’s an ace, and he’s getting paid accordingly.
The Red Sox needed an ace, so they paid a lot to get him. Remember their prior ace, Jon Lester, was traded to the A’s before he signed a free agent deal with the Cubs. The Red Sox got Yoenis Cespedes in the deal, who they flipped for Rick Porcello. They gave him a four year $82.5 million contract extension. Last year, which was year one of the deal, Porcello was 9-15 with a 4.92 ERA, 87 ERA+, and a 4.17 FIP. Not very good.
Essentially, the Red Sox turned their ace into a below league average pitcher. This happened because they got too cute. They really liked their chances to re-sign Lester so they traded him to bring another MLB player back. They should’ve just looked to lock up Lester, who reviewed a 6 year $155 million deal. The Cubs outbid the Red Sox by $22 million. The Red Sox 6 year $22 million offer was much higher than their previous four year $70 million offer before the Cespedes trade.
The end result was the Red Sox getting outbid for Lester, trading away the player they reviewed for Lester, and overpaying the pitcher they received for that player. Effectively, the Red Sox traded Lester for Porcello. It’s why they had to give such a huge contract to Price. They needed a top of the rotation starter. It’s a warning for the Mets.
Harvey is an ace. In his young career, he has a 144 ERA+ and a 2.65 FIP. Both numbers are better than Price, who just received $217 million. Also, Price has been noted as a poor postseason performer. After the World Series, we knew Harvey could rise to the challenge and be dominant when the Mets need him most.
This is not a guy you trade. Not even if he won’t work out a contract extension with you now. You don’t trade an ace like this because the return may very well become an overpaid Porcello. That’s even worse for the Mets because they don’t have the Red Sox financial wherewithal to overcome such a big mistake.
There may come a time Harvey leaves the Mets. That time better come when it’s clear the Mets can’t re-sign him and have no hopes of winning anything. I doubt that’ll be the case with this young rotation.
Harvey needs to stay because the price of his departure would be too high.
My family never sat around the table and said what we were thankful for each Thanksgiving. We’re rather large people. Sitting through grace was onerous enough. However, I do think it’s worthwhile.
For starters, I’m always thankful for my son and wife. I’m thankful for the rest of my family. This year I’m also thankful I got to go to a World Series game with my Dad and brother. As Mets fans, we should be thankful for this team in general. The 2015 season was a pleasant surprise to everyone, and each player left us with something to be thankful for this year.
Since it appears he’s leaving, I wanted to take time to say I’m thankful for Daniel Murphy. He was a terrific Met for the past seven years. We first saw him in 2008 when the Mets called him up to try to prevent a second straight collapse. Murphy did his part, but the Mets collapsed anyway.
Since that time, he worked hard to become a major league second baseman. He worked his way into becoming an All Star. Despite this, the Mets would move him around the infield. He never complained. He just went out and did his job. He did it’s well as he possibly could. He did it on mostly bad Mets teams. This year Murphy finally got a chance to play in October, and he took over leading the Mets to the World Series.
Mostly, I’m thankful I got to make videos like this one:
It was great rooting for a team that was a good group of guys. It was great seeing my son become a big Mets fan. It’s even better that he’s so smart that he could learn the Mets lineup and pick his favorite players. Players like Murphy, Lucas Duda, and Matt Harvey.
So thank you Murphy for being the type of player we could all root for. I hope to be able to do so again next year. I know my son does as well.
Something occurred to me last night. The Mets have a real problem this offseason. It’s one that they partially created. In a nutshell, they arrived too soon.
At the beginning of 2015, no one saw the Mets winning the NL Pennant. They were coming off a 79-83 season. The already dominant Nationals added Max Scherzer. Bryce Harper wasn’t the only one who thought the Nationals were bound to win a ring. Even with Jacob deGrom winning the Rookie of the Year and the return of Matt Harvey most thought the best case scenario was the Mets competing for one of the Wild Cards.
What happened? The National faltered so badly they had to fire their manager. deGrom was even better than he was in his rookie year. Harvey showed no rust and has no setbacks in his first season back from Tommy John surgery. The Mets offense and his play in AA forced the Mets to call up Michael Conforto, who played well. Noah Syndergaard had an incredible rookie year. Jeurys Familia became a great closer.
Add that to Curtis Granderson having a great year and an amazing two months from Yoenis Cespedes, the Mets win 90 games and win the NL East. When the young pitching delivers in the postseason and Daniel Murphy becomes unhittable, you win a pennant. Man was that an unlikely pennant. Going into the year, you would’ve thought everything wouldn’t had to break right for the Mets to get to this point. It was quite the opposite.
Zack Wheeler‘s season was over before it began with him needing Tommy John surgery. David Wright missed most of the season with spinal stenosis. Murphy was in and out of the lineup in the first half with injuries. Michael Cuddyer wasn’t as good as they hoped, got hurt, and became an expensive bench player. Wilmer Flores struggled at shortstop creating a strange platoon with Ruben Tejada. Dilson Herrera couldn’t fill the gaps because he still wasn’t ready. Travis d’Arnaud had two long DL trips, and his replacements couldn’t hit. Juan Lagares took big steps back offensively and defensively. Lucas Duda had a streaky year with prolonged slumps. Oh, and their closer, Jenrry Mejia, had not one but two PED suspensions.
Really, this wasn’t some magical season. It was frustrating for most of the year. It was magical from August on. If not fit the Nationals ineptitude, the Mets should’ve been dead and buried. The Mets should’ve been looking to build off of a strong 2015 season. The Mets still have prospects a year or two away. The year was really supposed to be 2017. That was the year the Mets pitching would’ve been firmly established with the Mets having quality players at every position across the diamond.
No, they’re way ahead of schedule. They’re ready to let Murphy walk after he’s been a solid player for many years, let alone that postseason. There’s no room for Cespedes. The Mets are again talking about not being able to expand payroll. It’s creating an air of frustration amongst the fan base. It’s strange considering what happened in 2015.
What’s also strange is a poor NL East is seemingly getting worse. The NL East may very well be there for the taking WITHOUT the Mets signing even one player. In actuality, not signing anyone could arguably be a prudent move for the future of the team.
Do you really want to block 2B with a large contract when Herrera is a potential All Star. Do you grossly overpay for a bad shortstop when the Mets have not one but two big prospects at that position who are not far away? Why are you getting a terrible centerfielder when Brandon Nimmo is so close.
Do you block the path for some potential All Stars for aging players who MAY help you one year and be an albatross when the prospects are ready? How do you not build upon a team that went to the World Series last year? Can you reasonably ask a fan base to wait another year after all the losing? How do you explain last year might’ve been a fluke?
That’s the Mets real problem. They’re trying to juggle the present and the future. The front office is going to have to earn their money this offseason.
Sadly, Victor Cruz’s attempts to comeback from last season’s patella tendon injury has ended as he needs to have season ending calf surgery. Cruz sustained the latter injury while rehabbing his prior injury. It’s a cruel twist of fate.
Cruz has overcome so much. In high school, his father committed suicide. He has been dismissed from the UMass football team due to his grades. He was an undrafted rookie free agent. He made the Giants, but he had a season ending hamstring injury in his first season meaning he’d have to prove himself all over again.
He did. In 2011, he lead the Giants in receptions. He caught a touchdown in the Super Bowl. The next year he became a Pro Bowler. He’s been there for fans during times of tragedy. He’s always there when in need. He started the Victor Cruz Foundation to help children with education. He’s a role model. So what happens when he breaks down announcing he can’t return this year after working so hard to return:
At least Victor Cruz never missed a fashion show, talk show appearance or awards event in NYC.
— Jimmy Traina (@JimmyTraina) November 16, 2015
Don't get me wrong, Cruz was a fine player, but he never missed a chance for attention. Neither does Matt Harvey.
— Chris Carlin (@ChrisCarlin) November 16, 2015
What does it have to do with anything?
Who said that it did? https://t.co/9klHwCrRXO
— Chris Carlin (@ChrisCarlin) November 16, 2015
Exactly. It’s just people kicking Cruz while he’s down. Also, is it a surprise to anyone that Matt Harvey‘s name was invoked? Not to me. He’s been the subject of gratuitous shots himself. Their crime? Being visible. They’re not at clubs. They’re not beating women. They’re just visible. Apparently, it gives people the right to negate all of their hard work and effort.
You know who’s been visible a lot lately? Noah Syndergaard.
If we’ve learned anything from Harvey, you’re not allowed to go to sporting events, especially Rangers games.
Seriously, one day Harvey and Cruz were Kings of New York. Then they got hurt, and everybody had something to say about them. If Thor gets hurt or sees a dip in performance, the wolves will come out. His comments during the World Series about being 60′ 6″ away will go from being tough to being a clown. Just watch.
I’m going to thank Cruz for his play with the Giants. I’m going to thank Harvey for his play with the Mets. I’m going to thank Syndergaard for his play with the Mets. I’m not going to change the narrative during a low point in their careers and/or lives.
I hope the Syndergaard backlash never happens. If it does, just remember what they had to say about a good guy like Victor Cruz.
Let me start off by saying, I’m not in favor of trading the Mets starting pitching. They’re still cheap, and they’re the main reason the Mets won the NL East and went to the World Series.
With that said, everyone wants at least one of the Mets young starters. It at least appears the Mets are shopping Zack Wheeler. There’s a lot of smoke surrounding the Mets moving Matt Harvey. It’s probably due to the double standards applied to him. It’s more likely that it involves him being arbitration eligible with the Mets having limited resources.
In any event, the Harvey rumors and trade suggestions are abound. At my cousin’s wedding on Saturday (congratulations Brian and Alison), my brother and I discussed the Mark Simon article regarding the proposed Harvey for Mookie Betts trade. My brother’s main objection to the idea of trading Harvey was his value will only increase next year. If we’ve seen anything with pitcher’s recovering from Tommy John surgery, it’s they are better in Year 2.
My brother is right in principle. You want to trade players at their peak value. Right now, that pitcher is Jacob deGrom. For much of the season, he was a Cy Young candidate. He was the story at the All Star Game. He had a terrific postseason. He’s not arbitration eligible until 2018, and he can’t be a free agent until 2021. His value may be at its absolute peak.
He will also be 28 years old next year making him the oldest Mets starting pitcher, at least the oldest amongst those who the Mets have control over past 2016. In some ways, he emerged as the staff ace rendering him untradeable. In other ways, it makes it the right time to trade him.
You don’t trade someone like Harvey who is still building up his trade value. You trade the player who you believe is at peak value. Again, while I don’t advocate trading a starting pitcher, we should at least identify the one who will bring back the most value and be at the most risk for regression.
That player is deGrom.
When discussing the 2016 Mets, I see many people referring to their Big 4. Now, I knew there was a Big 3, who were referred to as stud muffins by Tom Seaver. My question is who is the fourth member of this proverbial Big 4.
Let’s start with the obvious. It’s not Jon Niese. He’s the definition of an average pitcher. Also, even if he’s the fourth best pitcher, I’m assuming it’s not Jeurys Familia. I doubt a closer would be thrown in with a Big 4 starting pitching group.
No, the fourth member would be either Steven Matz or Zack Wheeler. I like both Matz and Wheeler, but they haven’t earned this distinction yet.
In his career, Wheeler is 18-16 with a 3.50 ERA, 1.339 WHIP, and an 8.5 K/9. His ERA+ is 100, which means he’s just an average pitcher. That should be no surprise given his other statistics. While this is nothing to sneeze at, it does not merit putting him in the same conversation as Harvey, Thor, and deGrom. This is before taking his return from Tommy John into account. Wheeler is a tremendous talent, but he’s not a part of a Big 4 yet.
The more obvious choice for the Big 4 is Matz because he was in the postseason rotation. The only thing I can say about Matz right now is we had no idea what he is. He was incredible in his first two starts before being shut down with a lat injury. He was average when he came back only to hurt his back sleeping on the sofa. When he returned he was only good through five innings in the postseason.
This isn’t a knock on him. He sat for long stretches which would challenge anyone’s effectiveness. The overall point is we don’t know what he is yet. He could very well reach the level of the stud muffins. He could also be nothing more than an average pitcher.
Long story, short, there’s no Big 4. There could be one. There could be a Big 5. There’s a number of possibilities. However, right now it’s just a Big 3.
You know who used to be awesome? Tim Lincecum. In 2008 and 2009, he won back-to-back Cy Young Awards. In 2010, he helped pitch the Giants to their first Workd Series title since they moved to San Francisco.
After 2010, things have not gone well for Lincecum. His ERAs have been over 4.00, he’s had injuries, and he hasn’t been able to stay in the rotation. He was in the bullpen for the 2012 title run. He had only one relief appearance in the entire 2014 postseason. Last year, his year ended early because he needed hip surgery. He’s now a free agent.
There’s a number of red flags. I look at that, and I see discount signs. It’s where you need to go if you truly have limited resources to improve in the offseason. You need to take what will hopefully be low cost, high reward signings. Ultimately, what the Mets would be looking for is the 2012 postseason version of Big Time Timmy Jim.
Somewhat surprisingly, Lincecum was in the bullpen making six appearances (one NLCS start). He had a 2.55 ERA, 0.792 WHIP, and a 10.2 K/9. He showed a glimpse of having the ability to be great in the bullpen. What he hasn’t shown is the ability to be durable or good enough to make 32 starts per year.
Long lost in baseball is the true long man. The player who could make a few appearances one week and make a start the next week. It’s something the Mets needed last year, and if they’re honest, they will want one next year with Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, and Noah Syndergaard throwing more innings last year than they’ve thrown before in their careers.
With all the troubles he’s had recently, it might be good to convince Lincecum he needs a new start. Convince him he could use a one year contract to re-establish his value so he may become the next Dennis Eckersley or John Smoltz. With two Cy Youngs and three World Series rings, you’re selling him on his Hall of Fame chances. His best chance would be moving to the bullpen.
There’s one spot left in the bullpen. Why not offer it to Lincecum? It may seem Freaky, but it may be equally beneficial to all involved.