Since he was first called up, all we heard about Jon Niese was that he was born on the same day the Mets last won the World Series. What we hear now is Niese’s next start is the biggest of his life. Sounds like there’s a real chance he may not be on the postseason roster.
It’s strange that the player born on the date the Mets last won the World Series may not be on the postseason roster. It made me think with this young team, how many players were alive when the Mets won the 1986 World a Series. I have you one answer. Good luck with the other 17!
Ever since I was a little kid, I’ve been consumed with baseball. While I’ve gotten older and my priorities have changed, I’m still consumed with baseball, specifically the Mets. The Mets off days drive me crazy because it means I have to find something to do.
Tonight is one of those nights. Now, I have plenty of things to do in its place. I’m married to an amazing woman. I have a perfect little boy. Like every night, we’re going to have dinner. I’m going to play with my son. This involves a number of games and puzzles. It always involves me breaking out his baseball stuff.
When he starts getting tired, it’s bath time. After that, my son asks to watch the Mets. He gets next to me in the bed, looks over, and he crosses his legs exactly the way I have my legs crossed. It may not tell me if I’m doing a good job as a parent, but it lets me know that I’m making an impact.
On Sunday, I had a dilemma. He wanted to watch baseball. The problem is the Mets had a day game. Fortunately, there was Sunday Night Baseball. It was good enough. There’s no Mets game tonight. Not that I would put it on, but there’s no Yankee game tonight. That limits me to the MLB Network. I’m sure I’ll throw on the game they are televising.
My issue is their choices tonight are terrible for the East Coast. It’s either Tigers-Royals or Rockies-Giants. The Royals have a 12 game lead in the AL Central and the Tigers are 10 games under .500. The Giants, like the Nationals, are 6.5 games back in the division. Like the Nationals, they have no real shot at the Wild Card.
Personally, I’d like to see the Braves-Nationals game. It has an impact on the Mets and their divisional race. The other games don’t. In fact, the Royals game has no impact on anything. I realize the MLB Network exists for ratings. I’ve been to a game in San Francisco. They’re terrific fans, and I’m sure they’ll drive ratings.
However, I can’t imagine the Rockies-Giants game will remotely register in New York, the largest media market in the world. There’s Giants and Jets preseason games. There’s the U.S. Open. The MLB Network punted probably presuming there will be no eyes in New York.
I know my son and I won’t be watching. That’s hard to accept because I’d love to have an important game to watch tonight. It’s just one night. My son and I will be tuning in tomorrow.
We knew going into this season the Mets that Matt Harvey was going to be on an innings limit. Recently, the reports have been that the Mets have been informed that Harvey shouldn’t go over 180 innings.
After last night’s win, Harvey sits at 166.1 innings meaning he has 18.2 innings remaining. That’s roughly the equivalent of three six inning starts. Not counting October, it appears Harvey has three starts remaining in the regular season. This assumes a six man rotation and the Mets announced plans to skip another start. At least, the skipped start won’t be against the Nationals. Therefore, it seems that Harvey will finish within his limits.
Now, these are the things you can do when you have a 6.5 game lead with a weak schedule. This is a luxury you have when Matt Williams is derailing the Nationals season. My issue is what would have happened if the Nationals were closer in the standings. Better yet, what will happen if the National sweep the Mets next week and make it a race?
Do the Mets still need to skip Harvey’s start? They have really painted themselves in a corner. They didn’t need to be in this situation.
The Mets could have started Harvey later in the season, but the Mets wouldn’t have missed out on the increased attendance and financial boon. Keep in mind, the Mets set their rotation to pitch Harvey on the second home game instead of Opening Day at Citi Field. It was a business rather than a baseball move.
Also, there were ample opportunities all year to skip Harvey. Looking over his starts, he’s pitched consistently well all year with the exception of a somewhat rough stretch from May 23rd to June 10th. On these two days, he allowed seven earned runs. In the other two starts, he pitched fairly well. However, with the rough stretch, it might’ve been a good time for a breather. It should also be noted that after this stretch, he was lights out.
Furthermore, there were chances for Harvey to pitch less innings in a number of starts. However, I will say this is not one area we should focus on too much. Harvey is averaging 6.2 innings per start. I think we can all agree you don’t want a starter going less than six innings. If Harvey was limited to only 6 innings per start, that would’ve only saved him 16.1 innings or two plus starts.
I acknowledge it’s a delicate balance. You want to stretch Harvey out. He’s a horse. You want to ride him for seven plus innings. Plus, his performance this year has merited him going deep into games. I have no problem with him going 166.1 innings (or 6.2 innings per start) in his starts.
The Mets have good team doctor. It may not seem that way because they don’t always follow medical advice or even seek it out. However, when you do receive it, you need to follow that advice. The Mets didn’t with their most valuable asset.
I’m not saying the Mets should shut down Harvey like the Nationals did with Steven Strasburg. I would also point out the Cardinals treated Adam Wainwright different than the Nationals did after Wainwright’s Tommy John surgery. After Wainwright’s 2011 surgery, he pitched 198.0 regular season innings with an additional 15.0 postseason innings. That’s 213 innings or 33 innings more than what Harvey’s doctors recommend.
The next two years Wainwright was an All Star pitching 241.2 and 227.0 innings respectively. He finished second and third in Cy Young voting respectively. It should be noted he had a balky elbow in 2014, and he needed offseason surgery on the elbow to clean up cartilage, which may or may not be related to the Tommy John surgery. My presumption is it isn’t, but that’s conjecture, not fact. We do know Wainwright’s season ending injury this year is unrelated.
So what was the right call? Do you pitch him all year like Wainwright? Do you limit his innings like Strasburg? Both of these pitchers have had injuries since, but it’s not like the subsequent injuries were necessarily related to their Tommy John surgeries.
What we do know is even with the six man rotations and missed starts, the minute Harvey takes the mound in October, he’s definitely passing his innings limits. Every individual and pitcher is different. Every plan for dealing with post-Tommy John surgery is different. It’s amazing with all of the surgeries we’ve seen there is still no clear cut rehabilitation plan.
That’s part of the problem with Harvey. There’s no plan or road map. Let’s just keep our fingers crossed that this plan is elite correct one. There’s a lot riding on it.
It’s no secret the Mets have a hole in their bullpen. They need a LOOGY. With Dario Alvarez getting the call-up, the competition for the spot officially begins.
In actuality, the competition may have begun last night. With one out in the seventh, Terry Collins brought in Sean Gilmartin to face the left-handed Odubel Herrera and Ryan Howard. Herrera singled and Howard hit into a double play. If this was indeed the start of the competition, Gilmartin threw down the gauntlet.
Gilmartin has found a nice role for himself in the Mets bullpen as the long man. He has appeared in 42 games going 3-1 with a 2.17 ERA, 1.095 WHIP, and a 2.46 FIP. In sum, he’s been fantastic. I’m sure he’s been considered for the long man role in the postseason. It appears he’s being considered for the LOOGY role as well.
The problem is the Mets are potentially looking to avoid a season’s worth of data. They’re also neglecting the adage that you never trust September results. The reason I mention this Gilmartin succeeds as a long man because he doesn’t have severe platoon splits. In fact, he’s slightly worse against lefties:
- RHB .215/.288/.280
- LHB .222/.282/.310
With that said, those are good numbers against lefties. Those numbers are on par with Eric O’Flaherty‘s career numbers against lefties: .209/.272/.272. Unlike Gilmartin, O’Flaherty can’t pitch to righties. O’Flaherty gets pummeled by righties in his career to the tune of .277/.356/.392. Also unlike Gilmartin, O’Flaherty has been terrible this year and worse so with the Mets.
O’Flaherty has a 14.14 ERA with the Mets with a 2.429 WHIP and a 5.28 FIP. He’s getting pummeled this year too. Righties are hitting .413/.496/.651. He hasn’t been impressive as a LOOGY going .262/.333/.308 against lefties. If he’s on the postseason roster and the opposition pinch hits a right when he comes into the game, watch out! That’s the strength of using Gilmartin as a LOOGY. If there’s a pinch hitter, he can handle it.
However, Gilmartin’s ability to give you multiple innings cannot be ignored, and that is why, September or no September, Alvarez needs a good, hard look. He’s pitched extremely well in AAA. Lefties and righties are batting .167 off of him. Given the fact that the PCL is a hitter’s league this is all the more impressive.
So we know Alvarez has the talent. It’s now an issue of whether his talent and AAA success translates to the majors. He has a lot riding on this, as do the Mets.
That’s how you respond to a bad loss. Your ace gets on the mound and starts dealing. Then your offense explodes with every starter getting a hit. By the time the Phillies knew what happened the game was over.
The tone was set when Matt Harvey started the game by striking out the side in the first. We used to talk about Harvey as a stopper. A start to the game like this shows those old stopper credentials. Sure, it wasn’t a terrific start overall, but he would keep the Phillies at bay to secure the victory. Overall, he would go 6.1 IP, 9 H, 1 BB, 9 K, and 4 ER.
The game seemed over by the third inning. In the second inning, Kelly Johnson opened the scoring by doubling home Daniel Murphy. Johnson would score on Ruben Tejada‘s inside the park home run putting the Mets up 3-0. The home run was the result of Domonic Brown flipping over the short RF side wall and suffering a concussion. In the third Murphy would hit an RBI double , and he would score on another opposite field homerun by Michael Conforto. At the end of three, the Mets lead 6-0.
The Mets did have a couple of pieces of bad news today. First, Wilmer Flores‘ grandfather is ailing. Flores flew to Venezuela to be with him. I hope everything will be alright, and I have his family in my prayers.
The second piece of bad news was that Murphy was forced to leave the game with a quad injury. With Lucas Duda still on the DL, this will probably press Michael Cuddyer into everyday 1B duties. If this is a bad injury, like the one Murphy suffered earlier this year, he will be out for a while. That’s a shame because it was great seeing him in a pennant race again.
There was also two bizarre plays. Ironically, the first occurred when Eric Young, Jr. pinch ran for Conforto. Like Monday night, EY had the base stolen until EY came off the base. There was no replay needed this time. The second bizarre play happened when the Phillies were threatening in the seventh. That’s when Odubel Herrera ran way out of the baseline onto the grass to avoid a rage from Johnson. He was ruled out for running out of the baseline, and when Johnson threw to first, the double play was complete.
It should also be noted that Yoenis Cespedes giveth and he taketh. He’s prone to the bone-headed play. Tonight, he got thrown out at third with two outs ending a rally in the sixth. However, he would come back in the eighth and mash a homerun. It’s a night where you can see why this is his fourth team in one calendar year. It’s also a night where you question why anyone would give up on him.
Overall, the night belonged to Tejada who went 2-4 with a run scored, four RBI, and that inside the park homerun. It was nice to see him and the Mets respond well tonight. It was a good 8-4 win.
There’s a saying in the NFL that if you have two QBs, you really don’t have a QB. The principal us that if you truly have a good QB, there’s no need for a QB competition. As a Giants fan, I remember the Dave Brown/Kent Graham days. People always debated who should start. It turned out everyone was wrong. When Eli Manning came along, there was no debate, and there have been two Super Bowls.
I was thinking of this as I was contemplating the Mets SS situation. From my estimation, Wilmer Flores plays SS with flyball pitchers like Bartolo Colon and Jacob deGrom. Collins plays Ruben Tejada with groundballs pitchers like Jon Niese. Essentially, Collins is trying to hide Flores’ poor defense with flyball pitchers while hiding Tejada’s poor bat by playing him only with the groundballs pitchers. In essence, the Mets don’t have a good SS option right now, so Collins is forced to mix and match like with Dave Brown and Kent Graham.
This wouldn’t be an issue if either Flores or Tejada fit the bill. Flores was supposed to be the offensive option. He’s hit .262/.294/.411, and that’s after a terrific last 20 games where he’s hit .324/.360/.521. Note, if he hits like this, you can live with his poor glove at SS.
Now, Flores may not be the disaster defensively that I thought he might be originally. That’s a testament to his work ethic. Last year, his UZR at SS was 4.0, which is above average. This year, he’s at -2.8, which is below average. Overall, in a limited sample size, the advanced statistics tell us he has decent range.
Now, this is where the advanced statistics conflict with the eye test. As per my eye test, he has limited range at SS. Furthermore, even though he’s better lately, he’s had trouble turning the double play. Also, why I don’t think errors are necessarily a true measure of defensive ability, it should be noted that Flores has the fifth most errors at SS in the NL despite playing only 85 out of a possible 132 games there.
With his struggling defense, it seemed Collins was forced to play Tejada at SS. The problem is despite the Mets assumptions, Tejada is not a good defensive SS. The advanced statistics show his UZR is -5.2, which rates to be quite a below average defensive SS. To be fair, a partial season of UZR data is not entirely reliable. Instead, we should look at his career UZR, which is -1.1. Generally, speaking he’s been slightly below average.
However, when applying the eye test, we see a SS who is much steadier than Flores. For all of Tejada’s faults, he looks to be more comfortable at SS, makes the routine play, and he is much better turning the double play. The problem is that’s all he is – steady. He will never even be thought of in the Gold a Glove competition. Furthermore, with a .253/.334/.338 triple slash line, it’s not like he’s hitting enough to justify his steady glove.
That puts Collins in a bind. He had to choose between a better hitter who’s a poor fielder and a steady at best fielder who doesn’t hit well. In sum, he doesn’t have a real SS option. I have to admit that despite his recent rough stretch, Collins has handled this situation well. He’s going to have to continue as the Mets have no other SS on the 40 man roster and cannot trade for one now. Actually they can, but that player won’t be eligible for the playoffs.
It’s amazing to think the Mets are here with no SS. Hopefully, Tejada or Flores will step up and take control of the situation. If not, I trust Collins can continue juggling the situation for now without dropping a ball.
The Mets have recently made a few very important announcements regarding Steven Matz:
- Matz will spot start in place of Noah Syndergaard on Saturday;
- The Mets will shift to a six man rotation; and
- Matz will not be a bullpen option.
In my opinion, the Mets are trying to accomplish two things: (1) they’re trying to reduce the innings of the stud muffins; and (2) they’re holding open auditions for the postseason rotation. I’m still not sure they’re not tempting fate.
Now, let’s start with the presumption that Jacob deGrom and Matt Harvey will be in the postseason rotation. This leaves two open slots in the rotation because we know the Mets will not allow anyone to start a game on three days rest. Let’s look at the candidates individually.
Noah Syndergaard
By any measure, Thor is the Mets third best starter. He is 8-6 with a 3.31 ERA and 1.136 WHIP. He averages just over a strikeout per inning. His 3.38 FIP is the third best on the team, and it profiles him as an above average to great starting pitcher. So what’s the problem?
First, more so than any other pitcher, he has an innings limit problem. Second, he has dramatic home/road splits. He has had 10 home and 10 road starts. Here’s how he’s fared:
- Home: 7-1, 2.15 ERA, 0.831 WHIP
- Road: 1-5, 4.91 ERA, 1.558 WHIP
So, he is really good at home, but he’s bad on the road. One way to cure this is to set up the postseason rotation so he only starts at home. It may be difficult, but it’s not impossible. Another thing to look at is how he’s pitched on the road against the Mets possible play-off opponents:
- 5/12 @ Cubs (first career start): L, 5.1 IP, 3 H, 4 BB, 6 K, 3 ER
- 7/3 @ Dodgers: ND, 6.0 IP, 2 H, 2 BB, 6 K, 1 ER
- 7/17 @ Cardinals: L, 7.0 IP, 5 H, 1 BB, 6 K, 2 ER
Looking at these stats, I’m comfortable with him starting on the road at these places. He needs to be in the rotation.
Jon Niese
Well, we saw the return of the bad Jon Niese yesterday. He’s had a rough year to the tune of 8-10 with a 4.17 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP. His FIP is a team worst 4.44 FIP, which profiles him as a bad starting pitcher this year.
We may have once assumed he was a lock for the postseason rotation after his strong June and July. He had respective ERAs of 3.00 and 2.87. His respective WHIPs were 1.333 and 1.021. Then the wheels came off. In August, he had a 5.17 ERA and a 1.309 WHIP. He continued the free fall last night. He cannot be an option for the postseason roster.
Bartolo Colon
Where to begin with Bartolo Colon? He’s 12-11 with a 4.42 ERA. He has a 3.82 FIP, which profiles as an average starting pitcher, which is more than Niese can say. However, if you excuse the pun, Colon has fattened up on some bad teams.
Against the NL East, Colon has gone 11-1 with a 3.01 ERA. That means against non-NL East teams, his record is 1-10. Against possible playoff teams (Cardinals, Blue Jays, Cubs, Dodgers, and Pirates), he has gone 0-3 with a 4.85 ERA. These aren’t great stats, and this may open the door for Matz.
Steven Matz
First off, let’s start with the premise that while his first two starts were fun, we can’t glean anything from them. He’s a top prospect, but he is not better than Harvey or deGrom. You’d be hard pressed to convince me he’s better than Thor. Second, let’s remember he’s still building up arm strength. In his last start, he only threw 77 pitches. Finally, he won’t be pitching against the best teams in baseball.
If the Mets go with a six man rotation starting on Saturday, Matz will make the following starts:
- 9/5 at Marlins
- 9/11 at Braves
- 9/18 vs. Yankees
- 9/24 at Reds
- 10/1 at Phillies
As we see with Colon, you can pitch well against bad teams, but that doesn’t mean you’re going to pitch well against the good teams. No one should read anything into starts against four bad teams . . . even if they’re bad starts. No one should. Unfortunately, if he’s great, someone might. That’s dangerous.
Bullpen Option
You know what you could determine? You can determine if Matz can pitch in the bullpen. You can put him in high leverage spots. If you’re truly concerned about his health, you can institute a modified version of the Joba Rules. However, I have a real problem believing the Mets sincerity on the issue when Dan Warthen is playing doctor when Matz had injury complaints. Also, this is a way of limiting his innings and how much he needs to pitch with an abdominal tear.
The Cardinals are famous for this. Mets fans know with Adam Wainwright how well this works. We saw the Rays use this effectively in 2008 with David Price when they won the AL Pennant. I think the careers of Wainwright and Price have turned out just fine.
After Matz has his start on Saturday, the Mets should move him to the bullpen. If you care about his health, you will limit his innings. You don’t use a September stretch run to stretch him out. Players get hurt that way. If you don’t want him to get hurt, put him in the bullpen. Let him pitch multiple innings. Give him a few days off afterwards. See how he responds.
If he responds well, you have a dangerous weapon in the bullpen come October. If you’re not sold, just remember what happened at the All Star Game. Imagine that in a playoff game . . . .
Personally, I don’t like it when people tell me not to boo someone. I’m not specifically telling you not to boo Bobby Parnell. It’s your right, and he’s been bad. He’s 1-3 with a 6.52 ERA. There’s a lot of things you want to say to that, but this is a family friendly blog.
Before I continue, it should be noted I was never a fan of Parnell. His fastball is straight, and he was in love with it. He had the attitude that he blew it past hitters in the minors, so it should work in the majors. As you can see, my defense of him has nothing to do with performance.
I defend him because Parnell has been set up to fail this year. He went down last April and needed Tommy John surgery. Matt Harvey was not allowed on a mound until 10 months after the surgery. He didn’t come back until 20 months after the surgery. The normal timetable is around 12-18 months. However, most people agree a pitcher needs 18 months. Parnell was given much less time. In fact, he was pitching at 11 months and called-up after 14 months.
At first, the narrative was he had diminished velocity, but he was learning how to pitch more effectively. Then it was that Parnell was gaining some velocity, but the results weren’t quite there. Finally, it was he was terrible. Begrudgingly, he agreed to be put on the DL. We all suspected it was to get his head and mechanics right.
When September 1st passed, Parnell was activated. He spent his time on the DL working on his mechanics with Dan Warthen, who presumably said Parnell was ready to go last night. He wasn’t. When are the Mets going to seriously look at what’s going on with Warthen and the pitching staff? If you watched last night, you knew Parnell wasn’t ready to return.
I know the Mets were cautious with Harvey, and they should’ve. He’s a tremendous asset. However, just because Parnell’s a free agent at the end of the year doesn’t mean you get to rush his rehab, and yes, it was rushed. He didn’t get his full velocity back, and he was still having trouble finding the strikezone.
Despite all of this, Parnell still works hard. He’s at his locker fielding questions after another rough outing. His only transgression was making dumb statements about the fans. If you want to boo him for that, I understand. If you’re booing the results, boo Terry Collins. Boo Warthen. Boo Sandy Alderson. They’re the ones that created the situation.
I just can’t bring myself to boo someone who is set up to fail. I may feel differently when he goes all Heath Bell and figures it out somewhere else. If he does, we’ll really know the issue is with Dan Warthen.
This may be it for Parnell. It’s a shame because I’m really curious to see what might’ve been had he had a real rehab.