There appears to be two types of Mets fans: (1) those who love Daniel Murphy; and (2) those who don’t. I’m in the former camp. Gary Cohen is in the latter (full audio).
Now, it is way too early to do a postmortem on the Mets season. It’s too early. There’s still an important Game 5. However, I can’t fault Joe & Evan for addressing the topic with Gary Cohen. You don’t get him everyday, so when you get him, you want to address everything with him. That includes addressing the free agency situations of Yoenis Cespedes and Daniel Murphy.
I don’t disagree with Gary regarding how the Mets will treat the Cespedes and Murphy situations. I agree that neither one will be back. Where I disagree with Gary is his statements about Murphy.
First, he called Murphy a “net negative.” Frankly, that’s nonsense. I understand Murphy’s flaws. He’s not a high .OBP guy. He sometimes makes curious fielding and baserunning mistakes. However, calling Murphy a net negative is a gross overstatement.
If you’re using WAR, he’s generally been between a 2.5 – 3.1 player, which means he’s a solid starter. That’s nothing to sneeze at. If you’re using weighted runs created, or wRC+, his range is between 107-126 in the years he’s been a starter meaning he’s an above average player. Basically, Murphy’s a good player; not a “net negative.”
My other dispute with Gary is that Wilmer Flores and/or Dilson Herrera can take Murphy’s spot. First of all neither of them is the hitter Murphy is now. Murphy is a career .288/.331/.424 hitter. This year he hit .281/.322/.449. This year Flores hit .263/.295/.408, and Herrera hit .211/.311/.367. These two are young (22 and 20 respectively) with potential, but they’re not in Murphy’s league as a hitter yet.
This is a playoff team now. Next year regardless of their free agency maneuvers, they will be a possible contending team with their pitching staff. It would be better to have some proven hitters like Murphy. It would also be nice to have Murphy as an insurance policy.
This year the SS situation was never fully resolved. It seemed like Ruben Tejada finally wrestled the position away until Chase Utley‘s dirty “slide.” It’s the second time he’s broken his right leg. Flores may be forced to play more SS than anyone would like next year.
Also, who knows about David Wright? The Mets want to limit him to four games in a row. That means you need someone capable of playing third base on a semi-regular basis. It would be preferable to have someone like Murphy who can move other there and competently play the position.
That doesn’t mean I think the Mets should give Murphy a huge free agent deal. Rather, I would start by offering him the $15.8 million qualifying offer. If he accepts it, great. You have him for one year while you wait for Herrera to develop and you find out about Wright’s back over a 162 game season. It’s an expensive insurance policy, but it may be a necessary one.
If he rejects it, you at least get a compensation pick if he signs elsewhere. Alternatively, it will limit is market allowing the Mets to negotiate with him on their terms. With all that said, I don’t want to be talking about this. I want to talk about his two homeruns this postseason. I want to talk about Game Five. I want to be talking about the NLCS.
So, let’s focus on what’s important here. That’s Game Five. The only Murphy discussion now should be how he can help the Mets win that game.
If you’ve read this site before, you know I’m a big fan of Lucas Duda. So is my son. I’m rooting for him even if he’s having a rough NLDS.
He’s 2-15 with two walks and nine strikeouts. That’s a triple slash line of .133/.188/.133. That’s ugly. It’s hard to justify giving him playing time. With that said, he has to start in Game Five tomorrow. Now, unlike most, I’ll admit my bias here. I like Duda as a player. However, that’s not the only reason I want him to start tomorrow.
He’s had some success against Zack Greinke. He’s 3-12 with one homerun, one RBI, and two walks. It is a small sample size, and he went 0-3 against him in Game Two. With his cold streak, you could argue it’s time to play someone else.
If you sit Duda, then who do you play? One popular opinion floating around is moving Daniel Murphy to first and starting Kelly Johnson at second. That shouldn’t be an option with Johnson going 0-9 against Greinke. He’s also 0-3 with two strikeouts in his pinch hitting appearances this postseason.
The next option would be Michael Cuddyer. Cuddyer has had some success against Greinke as well going 10-40 with a double and a homer. He’s also struck out 10 times against Greinke. Given the comparability of Duda’s and Cuddyer’s numbers against Greinke you could argue the Mets should start Cuddyer, which is something no Mets fan is lobbying for right now.
However, I believe you have to start Duda over Cuddyer. If you don’t, this leaves your right handed pinch hitting options to Kevin Plawecki, your backup catcher, and Juan Lagares, the Mets defensive replacement. The Dodgers will have three lefties in the pen assuming Clayton Kershaw isn’t available. I’d prefer Cuddyer pinch hitting in this spot over Lagares or Plawecki.
Lastly, Duda has been extremely streaky this year. He can flip the switch at any moment. He did go 0-4 last night, but he also gave one a ride last night. Hopefully, it was a sign he’s coming out of it. It’s reason enough to play him tomorrow. I like focusing on this reason other than the lack of better options.
So, I’m hoping the Mets play Duda, and he gives one a ride. He’s done it before against Greinke. He can do it again.
In Game One of the NLDS, David Wright came up with the bases loaded. The Dodgers lifted Clayton Kershaw and put in Pedro Baez. Wright delivered with a clutch two run RBI single. We were all pumped:
One down. 10 to go. #LGM #Degrominant #PartyLikeIts1986 pic.twitter.com/JgilPHDLWn
— Brooklyn Cyclones (@BKCyclones) October 10, 2015
It’s been his only hit in the series. He’s done nothing since. That’s not completely fair. He’s had a .353 OBP in the series. He had a huge defensive play in Game 3:
David Wright got some ups. This saved a run earlier tonight, back when it was still a game. #Mets pic.twitter.com/JiUenkloOx
— Anthony DiComo (@AnthonyDiComo) October 13, 2015
The thing is since Game 1 he’s been 0-9 with four walks. That translates to a triple slash line of .000/.308/.000. His overall numbers this postseason are .083/.354/.083. His career postseason numbers are now .184/.322/.306. At a certain point, the narrative is going to become that he can’t deliver in the clutch.
It may be fair. It may not be. The numbers are what the numbers are. One thing I do know about Wright is that he was the only Met to get an RBI in Game 7 of the 2006 NLCS. In the Game 5, Zack Greinke–Jacob deGrom matchup, one run may be all that is needed.
The Mets need that run. They need more from everyone. They need more from Wright.
There were many disappointments last night. Clayton Kershaw was dominant. Steven Matz couldn’t limit the damage. The Mets couldn’t get the big hit.
However, one thing that wasn’t disappointing was the crowd. They brought it yesterday. Yes, I saw on Twitter that the crowd was better on Monday. However, it’s easy to be rambunctious when the final score is 13-4. What’s hard is to continue to cheer when you’re down 3-0 and 3-1 to the best pitcher in baseball who brought his A game.
Throughout the game, the fans tried a number of impromptu “Lets Go Mets” chants. Anytime the potential tying run reached base, the crowd went wild. It was a good crowd. It’s hard to sit through an excruciating game like that and still be there for your team. The crowd was great last night. Was it the best crowd I’ve ever sat in? No, but it was still a great crowd.
I was proud to call myself a Mets fan yesterday.
Honestly, I thought the Mets were going to find a way yesterday. I really did. Even going into the bottom of the ninth, I thought they were going to do it.
The main reason the Mets lost last night was Clayton Kershaw was Clayton Kershaw. He pitched 7.0 innings pretty much allowing only a Daniel Murphy fourth inning homerun. My fears came true. However, the Mets were far from perfect, and they didn’t capitalize on their chances.
First, Kershaw threw 94 pitches. Of those 94 pitches, 64 of them were strikes. One of of looking at that is saying, Kershaw was on, and when he’s on what can you do? However, there is another point to consider. Of those 64 strikes, only were 15 of them were looking. That means the Mets came up swinging. They came up swinging when you wanted to work deep counts to get Kershaw out of the game early.
It shouldn’t be all that surprising that Steven Matz couldn’t keep up with Kershaw. Very few can. I know I’m in the minority, but I don’t think he was that good. There were a lot of hard hit balls. He couldn’t get the big out in the third.
The game winning rally started because Matz got too cute with Kershaw. I realize he allowed a broken bat RBI single to Adrian Gonzalez, but that’s where you bear down. You’re facing Kershaw. You have to know a crooked number in this inning means the game (it did). He then allowed a two run RBI double to Justin Turner (aided by a misplay by Yoenis Cespedes in left). Ballgame.
The Mets rallied a few times, but they couldn’t get that big hit. It was frustrating. It is even worse when it happens in the playoffs. It could’ve been the clincher. Now, the Mets play a do or die game in Lis Angeles. I still like the Mets chances with Jacob deGrom.
I’m going to the Mets game tonight with my Dad and brother just as I always have. Starting last year, we started bringing my son to games with us. I’m not bringing him tonight, and I’m going to miss him.
He loves Citi Field. He loves the mini-baseball field. He loves Mr. Met. He actually sits and watches the games there. If I stayed he tonight, he would have watched the game with me all excited until he couldn’t anymore. Unfortunately, I’m not going to see the game with him. It’s not going to be the same.
However, I decided I couldn’t bring him. The game is too late. I usually get tickets by the Fan Fest area so we can go back there to see Mr. Met and run around a bit. I’m in the right field promenade today. It’s too far to shuttle back and forth. Also, it’s going to be cold and windy up there. I don’t want him cold and tired all night.
So I’m going to go to the game tonight. I’ll miss him. I’ll feel guilty. However, I can’t wait to be at the game tonight. I’ll have to get him a souvenir just to remove some of the guilt. Perhaps I’ll get him some NLCS stuff.
By the way, I should say here my wife is amazing. After a hard day of work, she’s going to take care of our very energetic son tonight by herself. I don’t say it enough, but she’s an incredible woman, and I’m lucky to have her. I’ll miss you too honey.
The best part of any rivalry is having a foil. In the Mets-Braves rivalry, that foil was always Chipper Jones.
I remember during his 1999 MVP year, the Mets-Braves rivalry was at its height. There was John Rocker insulting everyone. It may be hard to believe, but Shea Stadium was built into a much bigger lather than Citi Fieldcwas last night. However, there was another player Mets fans hated more than Rocker. It was Chipper Jones.
After the Braves swept the Mets in late September 1999, it looked like the Mets may miss the playoffs again. After the series, Chipper famously needled a Mets fans saying, “Now all Mets fans can go home and put their Yankee stuff on.” He hit .267/.517/.368 in the NLDS. For his career, he hit .309/.406/.543 with 49 homers and 159 RBIs.
Chipper would hit .313/.407/.557 with 19 homeruns and 55 RBIs. He hit so well at Shea, that he named his son Shea. He tormented the Mets and their fans for 19 long years. The Mets fans only response was the “LARRY!” chants. That one came courtesy of an Orel Hershiser call into the Fan. Other than that, Mets fans just had to endure his career.
After Chipper Jones built a Hall of Fame career off of the Mets, he’s apparently now rooting for the Mets:
https://twitter.com/bbtn/status/653973386121605120
I knew the Mets were getting some bandwagon fans, but this is ridiculous. However, if Larry, sorry Chipper, wants to come along for the ride, he can hop aboard. He earned that right when he ripped Chase Utley:
That was not a slide and that is not how u 'go in hard'!
— Chipper Jones (@RealCJ10) October 11, 2015
So, welcome aboard Chipper. Nice to finally have you on our side.
This is the third time I’m going to the NLDS. I went to Game Four of the NLDS in 1999 and 2000. Here’s what happened in 1999:
Here’s what happened in 2000:
Citi Field was rocking last night. It’s going to be rocking again tonight. The Mets have local kid Steven Matz on the mound. The offense is hot. So far, the Mets have continued the tradition of not losing NLDS games at home.
There’s something special going on at Citi Field. I can’t wait to see what the Mets have in store tonight.
There were three things we knew coming into the NLDS: (1) Clayton Kershaw has had trouble in the postseason; (2) pitchers do not pitch well on three days rest; and (3) Kershaw is awesome.
In Game One, he was incredible. He struck out 11 Mets. When he left the game, he had only allowed one earned run (the other two were runners he left on base). Kershaw showed the Mets why he’s the best pitcher in the game. Fortunately, the Mets had Jacob deGrom matched Kershaw pitch for pitch. He outlasted Kershaw. However, unlike deGrom, Kershaw is returning in three days rest.
This will be the third time Kershaw has pitched on three days rest. In those prior starts he’s gone 0-1 with a 2.25 ERA in 12 innings. In those two starts he’s struck out 15 and walked three. He limited opponents to a .159 batting average.
The Mets plan should be to do the same thing they did on Game One. Work the count and jump on the fastballs. If Kershaw is on, you need to help get him out of the game. He threw 113 pitches. He shouldn’t be good for more than 100 pitches. As his last two starts indicate, he’s not going past six innings.
The Mets just need to keep it close until they can get into the Dodgers bullpen. The Mets did it for seven earned runs yesterday. If they do that, the Mets will be on their way to the NLCS.
I grew up a Mets fan on Long Island. My brother and I would play in the backyard pretending to play for the Mets. We’d hit the game winning homerun in the bottom of the ninth with two outs in a 3-2 count. We’d strike out the best hitters in the game to win the World Series. Tonight, fellow Long Islander, Steven Matz, gets to actually live that dream tonight.
I’m not afraid to admit I’m jealous. He’s getting the chance we all wanted growing up. Unlike you and I, he’s left-handed and throws a mid to high nineties fastball. He’s also shown he’s a major league pitcher.
In his major league debut, he pitched 7.2 innings allowing five hits, two earned, three walks, and six strikeouts. He also went 3-3 with a double and four RBIs. Against these same Dodgers, Matz pitched 6.0 innings allowing two hits, two walks, and eight strikeouts. He got to stick it to the Yankees (as every Mets fan has wanted to do) by pitching 6.0 innings allowing seven hits, one earned, one walk, and four strikeouts.
For the season, he’s 4-0 with a 2.27 ERA, 1.234 WHIP, and a 8.6 K/9 in six starts. By the way, these are the numbers of the Mets fourth starter. He fought through injuries. He’s earned this start. He can pitch the Mets into the NLDS. He’s living every Mets fans dream. I’m jealous, but I’m glad he’s on the mound.
Lets Go Matz!