There are two times when any particular trade is judged. The first is when the trade is initially made. People look at the value derived from both teams and make a determination. The second is when the players involved play for their respective teams. These impressions are much longer lasting, and at times, these trades become quite infamous.
On December 10, 1971, a pitching rich Mets organization traded their fifth or sixth starter Nolan Ryan along with three other players for Jim Fregosi. It could be argued it was a shrewd move as Ryan was 29-38 with the Mets, and the Mets were acquiring six time All Star Fregosi to fill a position of need. It was done to help improve a team thought to be a possible World Series contender.
Ryan played more years than any other player. He won 324 games. He set all time records for strikeouts (5,714) and no-hitters (7). Fregosi played two years for the Mets hitting .233/.319/.328 in two season. The Mets are now universally panned for this trade.
On August 12, 1987, the Detroit Tigers traded prospect John Smoltz for Doyle Alexander. The Tigers were 1.5 behind the Blue Jays in the AL East race. Alexander would go 9-0 with a 1.53 ERA in 11 starts for a Tiger team that would win the division by two games. He would go 0-2 with a 10.00 ERA in an ALCS the Tigers lost in five games. Alexander made the All Star team for the Tigers in 1988, and he would follow that with a league leading 18 loss season in 1989.
Smoltz pitched 20 years for the Braves. In his career, he was 213-155 with 154 saves and a 3.33 ERA. He took his game to another level in the postseason. In 41 postseason games (27 starts), he was 15-4 with four saves and a 2.67 ERA. He was the 1992 NLCS MVP, and he was a member of the 1995 Braves World Series Championship team. He was inducted in the Hall of Fame in 2015. The Tigers are now universally panned for this trade.
On August 30, 1990, the Boston Red Sox traded prospect Jeff Bagwell for Larry Anderson. The Red Sox had a 6.5 game lead and were trying to sure up the bullpen for the postseason. In the regular season, Anderson pitched in 15 games. He had a 1.23 ERA and one save. In the ALCS, he was 0-1 with a 6.00 ERA in three appearances. The Red Sox were swept by the Athletics, and Anderson would go to the Phillies in the offseason.
Bagwell made his debut a year after the trade, and he would win the Rookie of the Year Award. He would win an MVP, be named to four All Star teams, three Silver Sluggers, and a Gold Glove. Last year, he received 71.6% of the Hall of Fame votes. He appears to be on track to be elected next year. The Red Sox are now universally panned for this trade.
On July 7, 2008, the Cleveland Indians traded CC Sabathia to the Milwaukee Brewers for four prospects headlined by Matt LaPorta and Michael Brantley (PTBNL). The Brewers were four games out and in third place in the NL Central. They were a half a game out of the Wild Card. Sabathia would make 17 starts, many on short rest, for the Brewers going 11-2 with a 1.65 ERA. The Brewers won the Wild Card on the last game of the season. Sabathia started that last game allowing only one run in a complete game win.
In his lone NLDS start, a fatigued Sabathia would only last 3.2 innings while allowing five runs in a Game Two loss. The Brewers would lose the series, and Sabathia would sign with the Yankees in the offseason.
LaPorta lasted only four years for the Indians hitting .238/.301/.393. He hasn’t played a major league game since 2012. Brantley is in his eighth season for the Indians. He has hit .293/.349/.422 in his career. In 2014, he was an All Star, won the Silver Slugger, and he finished third in the MVP voting. The Brewers now receive universal praise for the trade.
On July 31, 2015, a pitching rich Mets organization traded Michael Fulmer and Luis Cessa for Yoenis Cespedes. At the time of the trade, the Mets trailed the Nationals by three games in the NL East. Cespedes would hit .287/.337/.604 with 17 homeruns and 44 RBI. The Mets would win the NL East by seven games. Cespedes hit .222/.232/.352 with two homers and eight RBI. He signed a three year deal with the Mets with an opt out after one year. To date, a vast amount of Mets fans approve of the trade.
Cessa was traded by the Tigers to the Yankees. He made his major league debut this year pitching two innings and allowing one earned in his only appearance. He was sent down to Triple-A. It is too early to tell what will become of his career.
Fulmer was the Tigers main target in the Cespedes trade. Fulmer was a first round pick by the Mets in the 2011 draft. In a deep system stocked with pitching talent, he was a well regarded prospect. Once he became a Tiger, he quickly became their top prospect.
Tonight is his first career start. It will be not only the first chapter in his career, but it will also be the first chapter on how we judge what the Tigers received in exchange for Cespedes.
Almost immediately, the Mets wish they could’ve undone the Fregosi trade. Anderson and Alexander undoubtedly helped their teams, but in retrospect, the Red Sox and Tigers wish they could’ve undone those trades. On the other hand, the Brewers are pleased with their trade.
We’re about to start finding out where the Cespedes trade falls in Nolan Ryan to CC Sabathia spectrum.
Overall, it’s hard to imagine a scenario where Yoenis Cespedes‘ 2016 season isn’t a disappointment. He’s expected to break Barry Bonds (or Roger Maris‘) single season homerun record, Hack Wilson‘s single season RBI record, and find a cure for cancer. Yes, this is hyperbole, but it’s really not that far from what’s being expected of him.
After his incredible run last year, Cespedes has set the bar sky high. When he came to the Mets, he played the best baseball of his life. It was some of the best baseball anyone has ever seen. More than anything, this has been the reason why he’s had all the attention surrounding him. If Tim Teufel had these cars, it would be an amusing antidote, but it wouldn’t be the focus of each and every day this Spring.
Look, the Cespedes’ car thing has been terrific. It’s added some fun to Spring Training. We’re talking about this instead of Terry Collins leaving in Matt Harvey, David Wright‘s back, Jacob deGrom tweaking his groin, Alejandro De Aza‘s possible discontent, or Roger Bernadina having visa issues. No, the Mets are having a fun camp in large part due to Cespedes.
That’s is unless you’re John Harper of the Daily News:
Just as Mets fans were quick to turn on Harvey during the innings-limit controversy last season, citing his look-at-me tendencies, they’ll tire quickly of hearing about Cespedes’ lifestyle if he doesn’t put up big numbers.
Same goes for the clubhouse. Teammates will gladly accept Stsr behavior as long as it comes with star performance. And certainly Cespedes has earned plenty of slack in this area, having astonished his fellow Mets with his offensive exploits last summer after coming over from the Tigers on July 31.
Why are we preemptively chastising Cespedes? Keep in mind, this is the same writer that despite knowing all of the “issues” Cespedes presents, he implored the Mets to re-sign him. Now that he’s here, what’s the point of tearing him down?
Cespedes was everything the Mets thought he would be and more last year. So far, he has been everything we thought he would be this Spring Training. It makes sense that the guy with the neon yellow arm sleeve and the 52 medallion would have an epic car collection. It makes more sense that Cespedes was going to be the focal point of this team no matter what he did. Why not have some fun along the way?
Look, his season is bound to be a disappointment. His 162 game averages are “only” 30 homeruns and 103 RBI. That’s not going to be enough for some people. That’s a shame because fans wanted Cespedes here, and he wanted to be here. No matter what Cespedes does this season that should be celebrated. Instead, the Daily News is already finding ways to tear him down.
These preemptive attacks should be driven off a cliff.
Editor’s Note: this column first appeared on metsmerizedonline.com
One of the many blurbs that have surfaced from Yoenis Cespedes press conference is the Mets believe they can keep this young rotation together:
While Sandy said he thinks team could sign all starters, realistically just hard to envision a team doing that unless payroll is $200m.
— Matt Ehalt (@MattEhalt) February 3, 2016
Now, the $200 million is conjecture. To be fair, if you polled most Mets fans, or really anyone for that matter, they would agree with this assessment. Rather than take it at face value, I figured it would be better to actually try to figure out if it’s possible.
Of all of the Mets pitchers, Matt Harvey has reached the arbitration stage of his career, and he agreed to $4.325 million to play in 2016. He will be a free agent in 2019. That’s the key timeframe because that’s the point when these starting pitchers will start receiving large free agent deals.
Right now, the Mets payroll stands around $140 million. Before figuring out how much these pitchers will cost, we should figure out which of the players on the payroll whose contracts will expire by the time Harvey first reaches free agency along with their 2016 salaries:
- Yoenis Cespedes $27.5 million (free agent 2019)
- Curtis Granderson $16 million (free agent 2018)
- Neil Walker $10.55 million (free agent 2017)
- Asdrubal Cabrera $8.25 million (free agent 2018)
- Bartolo Colon $7.25 million (free agent 2017)
- Addison Reed $5.3 million (free agent 2018)
- Antonio Bastardo $5.375 million (free agent 2018)
- Jeurys Familia $4.1 million (free agent 2019)
- Jerry Blevins $4 million (free agent 2017)
- Lucas Duda $6.725 million (free agent 2018)
- Jenrry Mejia $2.47 million* (free agent 2019)
- Ruben Tejada $3 million (free agent 2018)
Before proceeding, it should be noted the Mets only owe Mejia a pro-rated portion of the $2.47 million due to his suspension. Mejia served 62 games of his 162 game suspension last year meaning the Mets will owe him roughly $945,000 next year.
Without factoring in arbitration increases and the like, the Mets payroll will decrease by $98,995,000. That means the Mets payroll obligations would be around $41 million. When you look at David Wright‘s salary, it will actually decrease by an additional $5 million to reduce obligations to $36 million. On the other side of that coin, Juan Lagares‘ $2.5 million 2016 salary jumps to $9.0 million in 2019. That’s a $6.5 million increase. As a result, the Mets 2019 payroll obligations will be $42.5 million.
If payroll remains stagnant, that means the Mets will have $97.5 million to fill out their roster and pay their starting pitchers.
Part two will analyze how much of this money will be attributed towards position players.
At the press conference today re-introducing Yoenis Cespedes, the issue of what Alejandro De Aza‘s role will be. Naturally, he’s expected to be on the bench ready, willing, and able to play all three outfield positions. Perhaps, that is jumping the gun a bit:
https://twitter.com/jareddiamond/status/694964819003359232
This really just confirms what every Mets fan thought when De Aza came aboard. De Aza signed with the Mets to share centerfield duties with Juan Lagares. The move was made because the Mets never thought they were going to be able to sign Cespedes. Yet, somehow, Cespedes returned to the Mets leaving behind Lagares and De Aza platooning on the bench.
Now, we are not privy to what, if any, promises were made to De Aza. We do know at the time De Aza was signed, the Mets were fairly steadfast they were not re-signing Cespedes. With that said, it’s fair to say, De Aza came to the Mets to be at worst their fourth outfielder. At a minimum, it appeared he was going to have a legitimate shot to get the bulk of the at bats in centerfield. Now, he’s the team’s fifth outfielder. I’m sure he’s not happy with being pushed down the depth chart without even playing one game, especially when he could’ve signed anywhere.
Now, De Aza can’t be traded until June 15th unless he consents to a deal, which he very well might. While every player wants to win, every player also wants to play. Right now, De Aza’s at bats will be few and far between as he’s the left-handed option off the bench, and the corner outfielders hit left-handed as well. He could be buried on the bench for a while. It’s not exactly an exciting proposition for a 31 year old utility outfielder.
So yes, we understand why De Aza would want to be traded, but why would the Mets want to trade him? With the Brandon Nimmo injury and the Darrell Ceciliani trade, De Aza is it when it comes to organizational centerfield depth. Well, there are a few good reasons.
First, De Aza may not be happy on the bench for long stretches, especially after he thought he could be a starter with the Mets. Having a disgruntled player is never good for your clubhouse. While Terry Collins was quite adept at handling the clubhouse last year, it doesn’t mean you should introduce a potential problem from the start. No, I’m not suggesting De Aza is a bad guy. Rather, I’m saying any player not getting sufficient playing time is an issue that will eventually come to a head.
Another reason you trade De Aza now is this might be the time when he has his most value. As teams look to fill out their rosters as Spring Training and/or the regular season approaches, De Aza may become a more attractive option. The Mets aren’t likely to get much in return, but whatever they do get is most likely to be better than what they get around the trade deadline.
Whether or not the Mets trade De Aza, we should be able to agree on one thing. De Aza is here because the Mets never expected Cespedes to be here. Now the Mets need to find playing time for FIVE major league caliber outfielders. This really is a nice problem to have after the problems we saw with the Mets last year.
Sometimes, it’s great when the plan doesn’t come together.
Last year, we got to celebrate Cespedes for only three months. Now that Yoenis Cespedes has re-signed with three Mets, we will have a full year to celebrate Cespedes.
For you new fans, Cespedes is a time that fans gather round Citi Field or their TV sets to watch Yoenis dazzle on the field and lead the Mets to the postseason. If you haven’t been here before, Yoenis hits balls that go really out there. It all starts with the Cespedes bat.
Cespedes Pole
For the Cespedes Pole, you nee something balanced and sturdy. You need something that is strong enough to handle 90+ MPH fastballs but light enough that it can soar in the air with the flick of the wrists.
Throwing Out of Baserunners
Cespedes has a lot of issues with these baserunners trying to take the extra base, and the umpire is going to let them hear about it:
Once the umpire calls there baserunners out, they “couldn’t smooth a silk sheet even if they had a hot date with a babe.” I lost my train of thought.
Feats of Strength
Cespedes isn’t over until Yoenis does a bat flip after a homer.
If we see a repeat of what we saw last year, we can expect a Cespedes Miracle.
I’m still in shock, but Yoenis Cespedes is returning to the Mets. Better yet, the Mets opened the pocketbook in order to re-sign him. It’s incredible. La Potencia is back in Citi Field.
This is even better because this shouldn’t have happened. It’s been a very bizarre offseason with many of the top free agents remaining unsigned until after the New Year. In any other year, Cespedes would’ve been signed long ago. Teams normally would’ve jumped all over him because he didn’t have a Qualifying Offer attached. The Mets got very lucky.
The Mets were lucky because Cespedes was still on the market. They’re lucky Cespedes turned down bigger offers. They’re lucky he was willing to effectively take a one year deal. They’re just plain lucky.
I’ve seen people saying the Mets played this perfectly. I’ve seen people saying the Mets are owed an apology. This is all nonsense. The Mets signed Alejandro De Aza to platoon in center. The Mets moved on from Cespedes. De Aza was not part of a long con to get Cespedes. No, for some reason, Cespedes was still on the market when he shouldn’t have been. As a result, the Mets got lucky, very lucky. We should all celebrate this day. However, no one should be patting the Mets on the back. Instead, we should all be taking the other 29 teams for not making Cespedes an offer he couldn’t refuse.
More importantly, we should all thank Cespedes. He wanted to be here. He got a no trade clause to be here. He is the one that made it happen more than anyone. He deserves your promise more than anyone. So no, don’t apologize to the Mets. Go out and thank Cespedes.
It’s a Cespedes Miracle!
We knew it was going to happen sooner or later. It turns out tonight was the night the Mystery team got involved in the Yoenis Cespedes bidding:
there are more than just the mets and nats in on cespedes. #mystry teams
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) January 23, 2016
As far as I know there is only one Mystery team. They’re in Alaska, and they play hockey. I can understand the lure to join Mystery. Russell Crowe is on that team. He may hold you accountable, but he does party with the team. There’s a lot to like about joining the Mystery team. With that said, I highly doubt Cespedes wants to play in Alaska. That would be going from the biggest stage in the world to effectively becoming invisible. It’s time for Cespedes to stop fooling around and just sign the discounted team friendly deal the Mets have offered him.
It’s got to beat playing in Alaska, doesn’t it?
Right now, there are two people who are realistically standing in the way of Yoenis Cespedes returning to the Mets. No, it’s not Fred and Jeff Wilpon. It’s Michael Conforto and Curtis Granderson.
Like it or not, Sandy Alderson was right when he said Cespedes isn’t a centerfielder. While Cespedes grades out as an elite leftfielder, he’s just not good in center. Last year, he had a -3.2 UZR and -4 DRS while playing center. For his career, his UZR in center is -12.6, and his DRS there is -17. While the Mets were willing to move him in and out of center to take advantage of platoon splits for Juan Lagares while not forcing Conforto to face lefties. While it was rough at times, it did seem to work.
However, that was over the course of three months. Cespedes’ defensive numbers in center are unsustainable over a full season. I don’t buy the argument he only needs to play there two years. He’s already established he shouldn’t be playing there now. No, if the Mets want to re-sign him, he needs to go either left or right. That begs the question, why haven’t the Mets made room for him?
Specifically, I’m asking why the Mets haven’t explored trading Granderson. Last year, Granderson hit .259/.364/.457 with 26 homers and 70 RBI from the leadoff spot. He was a finalist for the Gold Glove in rightfield. On a team where everyone was dropping like flies, he played 157 games, and really, he was the only credible major league bat in the lineup for far too long stretches of time. His 5.1 WAR ranked him as a top five rightfielder in all of baseball last year. He has a reasonable two years $31 million remaining on his contract. One way of looking at this is saying he’s too valuable to be traded.
Another is to say he’s at his peak value, which is the precise time you want to trade players. Granderson is a year removed from a .237/.326/.338 campaign. The year before that he hit .229/.317/.407. He had pronounced splits last year hitting .183/.273/.286 against lefties and .280/.388/.504 against righties. His 5.1 WAR last year was the highest it had been since 2011. He’s going to be 35 on Opening Day next year.
Right now, the Mets still project to have Eric Campbell make the Opening Day roster until they sign another 1B/OF. The Mets still talk about adding another reliever. Their farm system took a big hit last year. Couldn’t trading Granderson address one, two, or all three of these needs? Isn’t that what smart front offices do? Don’t they trade away a player a year too early rather than a year too late?
Also keep in mind,this is a heavy left-hand hitting team. Trading Granderson and re-signing Cespedes would balance that out a bit. Isn’t this something worth exploring?
Personally, I’d like to see the Mets keep Granderson. I’m a big fan of his on and off the field. With that said, trading Granderson now may be the right thing to do. His value won’t be any higher, and the Mets have some needs to address. The Mets do not want to be paying for Granderson during his possible decline.
It might be time to trade Granderson.
Editor’s Note: this article first appeared on metsmerizedonline.com
Overall, it’s apparent that the Mets do not see Yoenis Cespedes as a part of their 2015 plans. They’ve gone in another direction to address their offseason needs. While it’s rumored the Mets have a 2-3 year offer out to Cespedes, it’s apparent he’s not taking it. The Mets could increase that offer to sign Cespedes, but they do not seem inclined to do it. Well it seems the Mets resolve is going to be tested.
As Ken Rosenthal reports, the Nationals are pursuing Cespedes. Apparently, Cespedes is the Nationals next option after they missed out on Jason Heyward and Justin Upton. They are still interested even after trading for Ben Revere. The Nationals have made Cespedes an offer that’s less than the six year $132.75 million deal Upton received.
If Cespedes joins Daniel Murphy in Washington, there’s going to be a riot amongst the fan base. The backlash is going to be very ugly. Signing Cespedes could theoretically tip the scales in the Nationals favor with them now being favorites to win the NL East. With all that said, the Mets have to stay the course.
Alderson believes Cespedes is a square peg in a round hole. Essentially, he doesn’t see Cespedes as a centerfielder, and he’s right. What you’re willing to put up with for three months may not be what you will put up for a full season, let alone for three to five years.
If you truly believe Cespedes isn’t worth a four year deal, and he can’t play CF, you have to pass. You pass even if it means he goes to your biggest threat in the division. If you think Cespedes is not a CF, and you think he will be a problem if he receives a contract longer than three years, who better than your biggest competition to make that mistake?
Most Mets fans will not agree with this decision. At the end of the day, that’s not Sandy Alderson’s main concern. His concern is to build a winner in 2016 and beyond. There may be mitigating factors, but at the end of the day, you try to make things work that fit into your parameters. If they stray from that, you need to walk away. Unfortunately, it seems like when the Mets walk away again, their #3 and #4 hitters will play in Washington.
The Mets need to ignore that fact and move on. They need to not care where Cespedes winds up. They need to do what is best for this team. They need to spend more money in other areas to improve the team in other ways.
Ultimately, the Mets are just going to have to stay the course.