Musings
Well Twitter blew up today when Jon Heyman wrote that Scott Boras has a problem with how the Mets are handling Matt Harvey‘s return from Tommy John surgery.
Scott Boras now says the doctors said there was a strict 180 innings limit suggested by the doctors. The Mets denied there was a hard cap. Dr. James Andrews did little to settle the debate. By the way, great job by Tyler Kepner for getting Dr. Andrews on the phone and asking the question that needed to be asked.
While they are on opposite sides now, they were united in trying to get him surgery. They were on the same page during the rehabilitation. What happened? Before going into conjecture, let’s look at some facts.
First, Harvey’s pitch velocity has been in a steady decline since July, which may indicate fatigue. Second, he was dehydrated during his last start. He was left behind in New York to receive treatment. Third, the Mets recent handling of injuries has left a lot to be desired. While I’ll take Mike Vaccaro at his word that there were no issues on how his injury was first handled, I can’t imagine anyone feels comfortable with how recent injuries have been treated by the Mets.
Whether he considered this or not, Boras emailed Alderson to inform him of his interpretation of the innings limits instructions from Harvey’s doctors. What we don’t know is if Boras went rogue in trying to protect his client, or was he doing this in consultation with Harvey.
There may be some clues that Boras didn’t go rogue. Earlier in the year, Harvey was irritated over the six man rotation designed to get him to October. Now? Harvey is on board with the decision to skip one or two of his starts. It should be noted that before the year, Harvey said he would agree with whatever the Mets needed to do to get him starts in October.
What is clear is everyone involved is taking Harvey’s innings seriously. While it may have been a better way to handle the situation. However, the Mets are skipping two starts and going to a six man rotation in September so Harvey can get starts in October. The Mets want him to start Game One of the NLDS.
This is part of what the Mets have always said was part of Harvey’s soft innings cap. For his part, Boras was on board with the rehab plan and never voiced displeasure with any soft innings cap. We know Boras isn’t one to bite his tongue. There’s a reason he speaking up now. The Mets have understandably dug in their heels.
I know Alderson and Boras aren’t the best of friends, but they need to get back on the same page on this one. For starters, they need to figure out how Harvey is feeling, especially when it seems he’s fatigued. I will never advocate a shut down. I’m not crazy with the skipped starts. However, I will never advocate putting a player’s health in jeopardy.
To a lesser extent, the Mets need to get rid of the distraction. For his part, Terry Collins put a gag order in place, even if he couldn’t help but giving Boras his own shot. The good news is that this is a resilient team that did not seem distracted yesterday.
The time for public banter has ceased. The Mets, Boras, Harvey and his doctors need to sit down together to determine if Harvey can pitch more this year. It’s everyone’s responsibility to get Harvey pitching in October and beyond. It’s everyone’s responsibility to keep him healthy.
I want a World Series this year. I also want to see a healthy and effective Harvey for years to come. Let’s find a way to make it work.
As we know, Lucas Duda‘s back injury has been lingering. There was an abbreviated comeback that ended with Duda needing to finally go on the DL. When he was eligible to come off the DL, he didn’t. Only recently, he was just tracking balls in batting practice.
Now, the Mets have announced that Duda will begin his rehab assignment in Binghampton. Their season ends on Monday (postseason notwithstanding). How Duda goes from unable to play to unable to take BP to full rehab games is beyond me. Backs are fickle things. As we saw with David Wright, it takes time to heal to get into playing shape.
I hope the Mets aren’t rushing Duda back from this injury. I hope this isn’t an overreaction to Daniel Murphy‘s quad injury. One wrong twist or pull and Duda might be done for the season. Murphy might be that close as well.
The Mets have a six game lead and a weak schedule. Take advantage and let these guys get healthy for a long October run.
On October 22, 2013, Dr. James Andrews operated on Matt Harvey. Since that time, there has been much debate on how to handle him.
This debate is now rekindled because Scott Boras is upset with the Mets. He wants the Mets to stick with the supposedly firm doctor’s 180 innings limit. Putting aside he’s a surgeon and not a rehabilitation specialist, I’ve never heard Dr. James Andrews speak on the topic. An admittedly brief Internet search turned up no rehabilitation recommendations from him.
There may be a multitude of reasons why he hasn’t spoken on this. The least of which is HIPAA. Another reason might be the fact that there is no real tried and true method. The Nationals shutdown Jordan Zimmermann and Steven Strasburg. The Cardinals let Adam Wainwright pitch 215 innings. The Yankees didn’t even go the surgical route with Masahiro Tanaka. All three have seemingly responded well.
The Mets are trying a different method with extended tests and skipped starts. We don’t know yet if this will work. Frankly, we don’t know what works. We know there’s no consensus. What we do have is people who urge extreme caution. It’s hard not to listen because when something goes wrong, everyone will point to that as the reason why something went wrong . . . even if it wasn’t.
Regardless, what we see here is Scott Boras aggressively defending his client. Accordingly, let’s not demonize him. Even if Harvey disagrees, Boras still needs to try to protect him, even if that means protecting Harvey from himself. Chances are if you were a player you would hire him as your agent because he gets huge contracts for his clients and he defends them. He does so even if it’s unpopular.
We see Sandy Alderson refusing to be pushed around by Boras. It’s great to see two strong willed men in a face-off. Boras is trying to do right by Harvey. Alderson is trying to do right by Harvey and the Mets. By the way, let’s not demonize Boras here.
I just wish there was a strong consensus or an opinion from a leading physician like Dr. James Andrews so we could stop having these arguments.
After leaving Wednesday’s game with a quad injury, Daniel Murphy traveled with the team to Miami. Unlike Lucas Duda, Murphy was actually examined, and it was determined he has a mild quad strain.
This is the type of injury that lingers and gets worse if you push it. Murphy injured the same quad in June requiring a stay on the DL. There’s nothing to suggest the two injuries are related unless you are suggesting that Murphy is prone to minor leg injuries.
As of right now, the Mets have a six game lead. They’re playing a terrible Marlins team. They have a viable first base option with Michael Cuddyer, who has been hitting .327/.383./.509 over the past four weeks. At second, they’ve been playing Kelly Johnson against RHP. Once he returns from Venezuela, Wilmer Flores [standing ovation] can play second.
If Flores isn’t ready to play Saturday or Sunday, Terry Collins has shown the willingness to play Juan Uribe there. If Collins wants to give David Wright a day off before a big Nationals series coming up, and Flores still isn’t ready to play, Collins can send Uribe and Eric Campbell out there. If the Mets become desperate, there’s always the possibility of a Dilson Herrera promotion.
Whatever the scenario, the Mets need to keep Murphy, his bat, and his versatility healthy for October. We don’t know if Duda is coming back. Let’s not thrust Murphy’s availability into question over a relatively meaningless series against the Marlins.
It’s no secret the Mets have a hole in their bullpen. They need a LOOGY. With Dario Alvarez getting the call-up, the competition for the spot officially begins.
In actuality, the competition may have begun last night. With one out in the seventh, Terry Collins brought in Sean Gilmartin to face the left-handed Odubel Herrera and Ryan Howard. Herrera singled and Howard hit into a double play. If this was indeed the start of the competition, Gilmartin threw down the gauntlet.
Gilmartin has found a nice role for himself in the Mets bullpen as the long man. He has appeared in 42 games going 3-1 with a 2.17 ERA, 1.095 WHIP, and a 2.46 FIP. In sum, he’s been fantastic. I’m sure he’s been considered for the long man role in the postseason. It appears he’s being considered for the LOOGY role as well.
The problem is the Mets are potentially looking to avoid a season’s worth of data. They’re also neglecting the adage that you never trust September results. The reason I mention this Gilmartin succeeds as a long man because he doesn’t have severe platoon splits. In fact, he’s slightly worse against lefties:
- RHB .215/.288/.280
- LHB .222/.282/.310
With that said, those are good numbers against lefties. Those numbers are on par with Eric O’Flaherty‘s career numbers against lefties: .209/.272/.272. Unlike Gilmartin, O’Flaherty can’t pitch to righties. O’Flaherty gets pummeled by righties in his career to the tune of .277/.356/.392. Also unlike Gilmartin, O’Flaherty has been terrible this year and worse so with the Mets.
O’Flaherty has a 14.14 ERA with the Mets with a 2.429 WHIP and a 5.28 FIP. He’s getting pummeled this year too. Righties are hitting .413/.496/.651. He hasn’t been impressive as a LOOGY going .262/.333/.308 against lefties. If he’s on the postseason roster and the opposition pinch hits a right when he comes into the game, watch out! That’s the strength of using Gilmartin as a LOOGY. If there’s a pinch hitter, he can handle it.
However, Gilmartin’s ability to give you multiple innings cannot be ignored, and that is why, September or no September, Alvarez needs a good, hard look. He’s pitched extremely well in AAA. Lefties and righties are batting .167 off of him. Given the fact that the PCL is a hitter’s league this is all the more impressive.
So we know Alvarez has the talent. It’s now an issue of whether his talent and AAA success translates to the majors. He has a lot riding on this, as do the Mets.
The Mets have recently made a few very important announcements regarding Steven Matz:
- Matz will spot start in place of Noah Syndergaard on Saturday;
- The Mets will shift to a six man rotation; and
- Matz will not be a bullpen option.
In my opinion, the Mets are trying to accomplish two things: (1) they’re trying to reduce the innings of the stud muffins; and (2) they’re holding open auditions for the postseason rotation. I’m still not sure they’re not tempting fate.
Now, let’s start with the presumption that Jacob deGrom and Matt Harvey will be in the postseason rotation. This leaves two open slots in the rotation because we know the Mets will not allow anyone to start a game on three days rest. Let’s look at the candidates individually.
Noah Syndergaard
By any measure, Thor is the Mets third best starter. He is 8-6 with a 3.31 ERA and 1.136 WHIP. He averages just over a strikeout per inning. His 3.38 FIP is the third best on the team, and it profiles him as an above average to great starting pitcher. So what’s the problem?
First, more so than any other pitcher, he has an innings limit problem. Second, he has dramatic home/road splits. He has had 10 home and 10 road starts. Here’s how he’s fared:
- Home: 7-1, 2.15 ERA, 0.831 WHIP
- Road: 1-5, 4.91 ERA, 1.558 WHIP
So, he is really good at home, but he’s bad on the road. One way to cure this is to set up the postseason rotation so he only starts at home. It may be difficult, but it’s not impossible. Another thing to look at is how he’s pitched on the road against the Mets possible play-off opponents:
- 5/12 @ Cubs (first career start): L, 5.1 IP, 3 H, 4 BB, 6 K, 3 ER
- 7/3 @ Dodgers: ND, 6.0 IP, 2 H, 2 BB, 6 K, 1 ER
- 7/17 @ Cardinals: L, 7.0 IP, 5 H, 1 BB, 6 K, 2 ER
Looking at these stats, I’m comfortable with him starting on the road at these places. He needs to be in the rotation.
Jon Niese
Well, we saw the return of the bad Jon Niese yesterday. He’s had a rough year to the tune of 8-10 with a 4.17 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP. His FIP is a team worst 4.44 FIP, which profiles him as a bad starting pitcher this year.
We may have once assumed he was a lock for the postseason rotation after his strong June and July. He had respective ERAs of 3.00 and 2.87. His respective WHIPs were 1.333 and 1.021. Then the wheels came off. In August, he had a 5.17 ERA and a 1.309 WHIP. He continued the free fall last night. He cannot be an option for the postseason roster.
Bartolo Colon
Where to begin with Bartolo Colon? He’s 12-11 with a 4.42 ERA. He has a 3.82 FIP, which profiles as an average starting pitcher, which is more than Niese can say. However, if you excuse the pun, Colon has fattened up on some bad teams.
Against the NL East, Colon has gone 11-1 with a 3.01 ERA. That means against non-NL East teams, his record is 1-10. Against possible playoff teams (Cardinals, Blue Jays, Cubs, Dodgers, and Pirates), he has gone 0-3 with a 4.85 ERA. These aren’t great stats, and this may open the door for Matz.
Steven Matz
First off, let’s start with the premise that while his first two starts were fun, we can’t glean anything from them. He’s a top prospect, but he is not better than Harvey or deGrom. You’d be hard pressed to convince me he’s better than Thor. Second, let’s remember he’s still building up arm strength. In his last start, he only threw 77 pitches. Finally, he won’t be pitching against the best teams in baseball.
If the Mets go with a six man rotation starting on Saturday, Matz will make the following starts:
- 9/5 at Marlins
- 9/11 at Braves
- 9/18 vs. Yankees
- 9/24 at Reds
- 10/1 at Phillies
As we see with Colon, you can pitch well against bad teams, but that doesn’t mean you’re going to pitch well against the good teams. No one should read anything into starts against four bad teams . . . even if they’re bad starts. No one should. Unfortunately, if he’s great, someone might. That’s dangerous.
Bullpen Option
You know what you could determine? You can determine if Matz can pitch in the bullpen. You can put him in high leverage spots. If you’re truly concerned about his health, you can institute a modified version of the Joba Rules. However, I have a real problem believing the Mets sincerity on the issue when Dan Warthen is playing doctor when Matz had injury complaints. Also, this is a way of limiting his innings and how much he needs to pitch with an abdominal tear.
The Cardinals are famous for this. Mets fans know with Adam Wainwright how well this works. We saw the Rays use this effectively in 2008 with David Price when they won the AL Pennant. I think the careers of Wainwright and Price have turned out just fine.
After Matz has his start on Saturday, the Mets should move him to the bullpen. If you care about his health, you will limit his innings. You don’t use a September stretch run to stretch him out. Players get hurt that way. If you don’t want him to get hurt, put him in the bullpen. Let him pitch multiple innings. Give him a few days off afterwards. See how he responds.
If he responds well, you have a dangerous weapon in the bullpen come October. If you’re not sold, just remember what happened at the All Star Game. Imagine that in a playoff game . . . .
Personally, I don’t like it when people tell me not to boo someone. I’m not specifically telling you not to boo Bobby Parnell. It’s your right, and he’s been bad. He’s 1-3 with a 6.52 ERA. There’s a lot of things you want to say to that, but this is a family friendly blog.
Before I continue, it should be noted I was never a fan of Parnell. His fastball is straight, and he was in love with it. He had the attitude that he blew it past hitters in the minors, so it should work in the majors. As you can see, my defense of him has nothing to do with performance.
I defend him because Parnell has been set up to fail this year. He went down last April and needed Tommy John surgery. Matt Harvey was not allowed on a mound until 10 months after the surgery. He didn’t come back until 20 months after the surgery. The normal timetable is around 12-18 months. However, most people agree a pitcher needs 18 months. Parnell was given much less time. In fact, he was pitching at 11 months and called-up after 14 months.
At first, the narrative was he had diminished velocity, but he was learning how to pitch more effectively. Then it was that Parnell was gaining some velocity, but the results weren’t quite there. Finally, it was he was terrible. Begrudgingly, he agreed to be put on the DL. We all suspected it was to get his head and mechanics right.
When September 1st passed, Parnell was activated. He spent his time on the DL working on his mechanics with Dan Warthen, who presumably said Parnell was ready to go last night. He wasn’t. When are the Mets going to seriously look at what’s going on with Warthen and the pitching staff? If you watched last night, you knew Parnell wasn’t ready to return.
I know the Mets were cautious with Harvey, and they should’ve. He’s a tremendous asset. However, just because Parnell’s a free agent at the end of the year doesn’t mean you get to rush his rehab, and yes, it was rushed. He didn’t get his full velocity back, and he was still having trouble finding the strikezone.
Despite all of this, Parnell still works hard. He’s at his locker fielding questions after another rough outing. His only transgression was making dumb statements about the fans. If you want to boo him for that, I understand. If you’re booing the results, boo Terry Collins. Boo Warthen. Boo Sandy Alderson. They’re the ones that created the situation.
I just can’t bring myself to boo someone who is set up to fail. I may feel differently when he goes all Heath Bell and figures it out somewhere else. If he does, we’ll really know the issue is with Dan Warthen.
This may be it for Parnell. It’s a shame because I’m really curious to see what might’ve been had he had a real rehab.
The Mets have announced what I presume is their first group of September call-ups. These players include Eric Campbell, Kevin Plawecki, Kirk Nieuwenhuis, and Eric Young, Jr. It’s fitting these four are the ones being called up first because they have a legitimate shot at being on the postseason roster, especially Plawecki.
When I looked at this list, I was surprised that Dario Alvarez‘s name wasn’t on the list. With Eric O’Flaherty struggling and the Mets refusal to put Steven Matz in the bullpen, there are no lefty options. As the August 31st waiver trade deadline has passed, another one cannot be acquired. The Mets need to figure this out.
The Las Vegas 51s season ends on the 7th. They’re in last place, so there won’t be any playoffs for them. The Mets apparently don’t care about the 51s season, and nor should they. That’s why they gutted their roster. Why they left Alvarez behind is beyond me. He’s been terrific in AAA. He is 2-1 with a 2.61 ERA and a 0.871 WHIP.
Alvarez belongs in the majors, especially with the LOOGY problem unresolved. I don’t know that Alvarez is ready to be a LOOGY. I don’t know if O’Flaherty can fix his issues in September to become the LOOGY the Mets need in the playoffs. What I do know is the Mets need to figure something out soon. They could be facing Adrian Gonzalez, Jason Heyward, Matt Carpenter, Pedro Alvarez, and/or Anthony Rizzo. It would be nice to have a lefty to get those guys out.
It’s funny with all the Mets moves, this is the one area they haven’t been able to properly address. I’d hate to see them LEFT out of October glory for that reason.
UPDATE: it was pointed out to me by Jack Ramsey that Alvarez is not available to be called up until tomorrow. This post will be more pertinent tomorrow.
After having a son, one thing I’ve noticed is how much the Mets have become kid friendly. One way that is especially true is the Kidcaster contest.
It’s incredibly cool that a kid gets to do play-by-play for a half inning. It’s something I wish was available when I was a kid. I hope it will continue to be available when my son is old enough.
The kid they chose this year, Dante Sasso, was terrific. He showed a knowledge of the game. He even dropped a Tommie Agee reference. That’s impressive. It was also impressive that Ron Darling and Keith Hernandez kept up their color duties and really helped this kid along.
The Mets should be proud of themselves today. They continue to make this team kid friendly, and apparently, they’re developing a smart fan base.
We all know the Mets have bullpen issues. They’re bad. Really, really bad. So bad, that Bartolo Colon had to make a relief appearance yesterday. I’ll give Collins credit for thinking outside the box to help fix a problem he created.
While the Addison Reed trade helps, he’s just one arm in an exhausted bullpen. The Mets need more help. The best help for a tired bullpen is for your starter to go deep in the game. Again, this is where the Mets inability to do math prevents them from permitting them to allow their starters from going deep into games.
On Friday, Matt Harvey could’ve and should’ve pitched another inning, especially with the extra rest. Yesterday, it was clear that Jacob deGrom was done after six. I had no problem with Collins pulling him. In fact, I wouldn’t have had a problem if Collins pulled him during the sixth inning.
Anyway, we don’t know when Addison Reed is arriving at Citi Field. We also don’t know if he’s ready to pitch. Furthermore, the Mets do not have an off day until Thursday. The only solution we’re left with is for Noah Syndergaard is to pitch a good game. I mean a real good game where he goes deep into the game.
Here’s where the Mets may be getting some luck on their side as Thor is great at home. He is 7-1 at home with a 1.82 ERA and an absurdly low 0.808 WHIP. More important for today’s game, he averages a little over seven innings per home start. If he keeps his pitch count under control today, he should be able to do that today. However, keep in mind Better pitchers like Harvey and deGrom topped 100 pitches through six innings against this same Red Sox team.
The Mets need a big start today from Thor. It’s a test for him in advance of a month that’s going to be a series of tests. He’s passed every test so far. I have confidence that if Collins allows him, he can pass this test today.