Hot Stove
Put Eric O’Flaherty aside. The last free agent the Mets should be interested in bringing back is Bartolo Colon, and yet here we are:
Mets and Blevins still have mutual interest in reunion; same with Bartolo in swing man role. interest in bringing him back.
— Marc Carig (@MarcCarig) December 6, 2015
Yoenis Cespedes may not be a true CF, but he’s got power, and he’s shown he can thrive in New York. Daniel Murphy may not be the best defender, but he’s versatile. He also comes up big in the big moments. There are roles for these players even if they are not perfect players. What’s Colon’s role?
He’s not the fifth starter. That spot is being presumably held by Jon Niese until Zack Wheeler‘s rehab is complete. Why would the Mets make him the long man? Carlos Torres and Sean Gilmartin are much cheaper alternatives who have succeeded in that role. What’s his role?
Do we really want to see him back with the Mets? Do we trust Terry Collins having him in the bullpen? Collins has already showed an over reliance on him over younger and better relievers. Put that all aside, do we even know if Colon at the age of 43 can manage being a reliever? Is this really the best use of the Mets resources?
It’s time to move away from Colon and sign a player that can fulfill an actual need.
This isn’t a criticism of Sandy Alderson and his staff. This isn’t an issue of this front office being stingy or refusing to go the extra mile to get the player. It’s just that historically the Mets typically do not outbid teams when it comes to the big free agent.
That’s not to say the Mets don’t sign free agents. Obviously, they do. They’ve also overspent and spent big money on some free agents. It’s just that they don’t typically win bidding wars. They especially don’t do so when a big market team is also bidding on the same player. My personal feelings aside, I just don’t see how the Mets outbid everyone for Ben Zobrist. Here are the instances where the Wilpon led Mets outbid everyone for a high priced player:
Jason Bay
In 2009, the Mets signed Jason Bay. In some ways it could be interpreted as the Mets won a bidding war and in others it could be seen as the Red Sox moved on to other players.
Fact is the Red Sox essentially had a four year $60 million contract offer, which may or may not have been pulled due to medical concerns. You can never fully trust Boston’s statements when a player leaves. The fact is the Mets had to offer $6 million extra to bring Bay to New York. The fact also remains the Mets went after Bay instead of going after the much better and much more expensive Matt Holliday.
This isn’t about how Bay fared with the Mets as no one could have reasonable predicted what happened next. This is about the Mets outbidding the Red Sox for a player only after deciding to not even get involved in the bidding for the more expensive, better player.
Carlos Beltran
The Carlos Beltran story is an interesting one. Like Bay, it was also a move made under the Omar Minaya regime.
What’s most interesting about this was the Yankees never got involved in the bidding despite Beltran all but begging them to offer him a contract. Furthermore, the Astros had a limited window to negotiate with Beltran. Under the old free agency rules, the Astros only had until January 7th to re-sign him. If they didn’t, they were barred from re-signing him until May 1st.
The Mets went above and beyond then in Minaya’s first year as GM. The Mets signed Beltran to a then whopping seven year $119 million contract. It was a real power move that the Mets haven’t typically been the Mets strength. There was one other move in 2005 that was uncharacteristic.
Pedro Martinez
Like Bay, the Mets were able to outbid the Red Sox for Pedro Martinez because the Red Sox drew a line in the sand in a player they knew/suspected had questionable medicals. Unlike Bay, the Mets clearly outbid the Red Sox.
The Red Sox thought they had Pedro re-signed giving him the extra year he wanted. The Mets just gave that extra year and money no one thought Pedro could/should get. Like Beltran, this was part of Minaya’s reshaping of the Mets. It’s truly interesting the major deals happened in 2005 when Minaya took over the team. In some ways, it makes you question how much the Madoff Ponzi fallout affected the Mets.
Yes, it clearly limited payroll. However, after 2005, the Mets never truly went the extra mile in seeking to acquire the top free agent on the market. They were initially rebuffed by Carlos Delgado (until he was later obtained via trade). They did give a huge contract to Johan Santana in the wake of the 2007 collapse. However, that was part of a trade and not part of a free agent bidding process.
So while the Mets have at times spent money pre-Madoff, it appears the team does not usually win these free agent bidding contests. Additionally, after 2005, the team has typicall backed off the top free agent on the market that would/could fulfill a need like Jason Heyward.
In any event, it appears if history repeats itself here, the Mets will not get Zobrist. This may or may not be due to the budget. It may due more to an organizational philosophy that was in place before Sandy Alderson ever became the GM.
There’s always that player. Despite all evidence to the contrary, you’re convinced they’re going to be good. You can explain away anything that happens.
That’s how I always felt about Aaron Heilman. I thought the Mets never gave him a fair chance to start. They messed around with his arm angles and bounced him between starting and relieving. Sure, I ignored his career 5.93 ERA as a starter (small sample size) and focused upon his good work out of the bullpen in 2006 (regular season). While I believed in Heilman, it just never happened for him. I thought about this when I saw this:
Also, it's pretty clear Jon Niese can be had given where the Mets stand with their rotation. They like Montero as potential fifth starter.
— Mike Puma (@NYPost_Mets) December 7, 2015
Seriously? When will the Mets irrational over confidence in Rafael Montero end? They may trade Jon Niese because Montero has the potential to be the fifth starter. This is the same team that thought Montero should start in 2014 while eventual Rookie of the Year Jacob deGrom should be in the bullpen.
Montero wasn’t good in his initial call-up. He was 0-2 with a 5.40 ERA and a 1.600 WHIP in four starts. He was sent down and injured his oblique. He did come back up and pitched fairly well as a starter. Last year, Montero started in the bullpen. The Mets then sought to move him into the rotation to create a six man rotation to keep everyone fresh. Montero only lasted one start.
He went on the DL with right rotator cuff inflammation. He was transferred from the 15 day to the 60 day DL to make room for Michael Conforto. His rehab was rumored to be progressing slowly. He then had a set-back. His year was effectively over.
It’s not fair to call Montero a bust. It’s still too early in his career for that. It’s also too early to consider him injury prone even if he’s lost big chunks of time over the past two years. With that said, there is no way the Mets should have Montero as a definitive part of their 2015 plans.
It’s widely assumed the fifth starter spot is eventually going to Zack Wheeler. It’s also assumed Niese will hold the spot for at least the first half of the season. After that, he could become trade bait, continue his excellent work in the bullpen, or both. Niese could also be insurance against a starting pitcher getting injured or create a six man rotation to get the other starters some rest.
Montero could do the same, but why would you rely upon him doing that? He hasn’t proven that he can be relied upon. You can trade Niese for a good return. However, you don’t do that because you think Montero could fulfill his spot. He’s been too unreliable to justify that thought process. This front office has a blind spot for him that could’ve meant deGrom in the bullpen. The Mets should learn from this.
Instead, why don’t the Mets go and see how Aaron Heilman’s arm is?
It seems the Mets won’t give up on signing Ben Zobrist. For reasons that are beyond me, it seems most of the fan base is eager to replace Daniel Murphy with him.
Here are the facts. He can play multiple positions of need. He has a career batting line of .279/.347/.466. He has an OPS+ of 114. He has a wRC+of 112. He has a wOBA of .349. Despite being well regarded, he’s only been an All Star twice in his career. Sounds like a player that contribute to your team despite turning 35 next year.
Wait, I’m sorry those are Michael Cuddyer‘s statistics before signing with the Mets last year.
Zobrist’s career numbers are very similar right down to the two All Star appearances. Zobrist has hit .265/.355/.431 with a 117 OPS+, wRC+ of 118, and a wOBA of .344. Cuddyer received a two year $21 million contract. Zobrist is rumored to be close to receiving a four year $60 million contract. Basically, if the Mets sign Zobrist, they’re risking him showing the same regression for additional years at a higher salary.
At some point someone has to look at everything and say this is a bad idea.
There’s a free agent out there who fits the Mets needs quite well. He’s a career .281/.365/.479 hitter. He hits lefty and he plays well defensively at first, second, and third. He only wants a one year deal making him a good stopgap until Dilson Herrera is ready.
In case you haven’t already guessed, the player is Chase Utley. When you think of potential free agents the Mets would consider, he checks all the boxes:
- Left handed bat
- Versatile
- Good defender
- High OBP
- Cheap
Unfortunately, you can’t add a player like him to this team, not after this:
Sure, he’s at least close enough to David Wright to have his cell phone number. cell phone number. So maybe there’s a chance things could be smoothed over with the team. However, it never will with the fans. It just would never sit right with them. I will admit a small part of me would be amused by the Mets defending Utley at the suspension appeal hearing because they took the cheap way out.
Ultimately, Utley would be a nice fit on the Mets in 2016 if he wasn’t Utley. Maybe the Mets can consult with Bobby V to get a disguise to make this happen. Other than that, it looks like it’ll be Herrera next year without a safety net.
Scratch Utley as a cheap option the Mets could chase.
There’s always a surprise or two amongst the players who were non-tendered regardless of whether or not the move made sense. It might’ve been surprising to see Greg Holland‘s name out there, but the move made sense.
Holland was slated to possibly receive $11.3 million in arbitration. You can’t pay that to someone who is going to miss all next year due to Tommy John surgery. You can’t pay him that when it’s his last year of team control before he becomes a free agent. The Royals tried to do the prudent thing in offering Holland a two year deal. However, the Royals were rebuffed leading to the non-tender.
The reason the Royals were rebuffed probably had a lot to do with the fact that Scott Boras is his agent. Boras probably wants to shop Holland around looking for the best offer. He should with 145 saves over the past four years. In 2013 and 2014, when he was the full time closer and healthy, he averaged 47 saves with a 1.32 ERA.
When healthy, he’s an elite shutdown closer in the ilk of any closer you want to mention. It’s the reason you would be willing to give him a two year deal. You want to get him on the cheap. He’d be a dream to pair with Jeurys Familia. If he returns to form in 2017, you have a reliever you could extend a Qualifying Offer thereby recouping a possible draft pick.
If I’m the Mets my selling point is how well things went with Matt Harvey (not sarcasm). However, I think Holland is going to go to the team that’ll offer him the most money, which he should. It’s at that point the Mets probably fall out of contention.
It’s a shame too because having that kind of bullpen in place would be another step in making a one year World Series run into a three year period of playoff runs.
When perusing the list of players who were non-tendered, I noticed Aaron Crow. He’s a talented reliever, who the Mets should pursue.
Crow was non-tendered by the Marlins after missing the 2015 season due to Tommy John surgery. He was a former first round pick by the Royals, who failed as a starter, so they converted him into a reliever.
In his first year as a reliever, he was an All Star. For his career, he has an ERA+ of 120, a 4.16 FIP, and an 8.0 K/9. In terms of more traditional stats, he’s 20-11 with a 3.43 ERA and a 1.322 WHIP. For his career, batters have hit .243/.321/.382. He fared better against righties (.229/.310/.327) than lefties (.262/.336/.455). Much of these career stats are skewed by an awful 2014, which was his last year before needing Tommy John surgery.
After seeing Bobby Parnell struggle last year post-Tommy John, Crow shouldn’t received more than a minor league deal. (Quick aside, the Mets should bring back Parnell on a minor league deal as well). He probably won’t receive more than that with his availability to start the year being a question mark. However, he’s well worth the flyer as he had a fastball that traveled between 93-97 MPH when healthy.
For a team rumored to be seeking bullpen help, brining on Aaron Crow is a no-brainer.
There may be a new second baseman on the free agent market with reports that Jose Fernandez has defected from Cuba.
In the Cuba, he was a .319/.403/.423 hitter. Personally, I don’t know how well stats from the Cuban leagues translate, do for comparison purposes here are the MLB numbers versus the Cuban league numbers of two well known successful Cuban players:
- Yoenis Cespedes MLB .261/.319/.486 Cuba .319/.404/.585
- Yasiel Puig MLB .294/.371/.487 Cuba .302/.398/.504
So, we can see there is a a drop in numbers from the Cuban leagues to the majors, but that is to be expected. Therefore, the best estimate of how Fernandez will play in the majors.
According to Baseball America, Fernandez is the third best prospect from Cuba who hasn’t signed a MLB contract. He’s a contact hitter that doesn’t strike out. He doesn’t hit for much power. He doesn’t have a lot of speed, and he’s not a good defensive second baseman. Fernandez has not played baseball in over a year because he was suspended for trying to defect. This begs the question why would the Mets go that route?
From the description, he’s no better than Daniel Murphy. Murphy is a contact hitter that’s not great defensively at second. Yes, Fernandez is three years younger, but he also hasn’t done it in the majors. With that said if you’re inclined to go that route you’re better off re-signing Murphy or giving the position to Dilson Herrera, who is also just as much of a question mark.
When it comes down to it, Fernandez may be the Cuban version of Daniel Murphy. If that’s the case, I’d rather have the real Daniel Murphy.
I remember years ago the Milwaukee Brewers carried a relief pitcher by the name of Brooks Kieschnick. He failed as an everyday player, so he returned to becoming a pitcher as he was in college. He then became an average (at best) reliever, pinch hitter, and DH.
I believe this could and should be Ike Davis‘ future in the major leagues. He once was extremely promising as a good defensive slugging first baseman. It may just be the Valley Fever, but he never fulfilled that promise. The Mets gave up on him and traded him to the Pirates. The A’s purchased him in the offseason from the Pirates. After a forgettable year, the A’s decided not to tender him a contract making him a free agent.
Actually, forgettable was the wrong word because Davis had a memorable relief appearance:
It was a long time ago, but Davis was a college pitcher, who had a 2.25 ERA at Arizona State. In his lone relief appearance, he fastball hit 88 MPH and he appeared to have a slider. If Davis works at it, it’s possible he could have the type of stuff he once had:
https://twitter.com/keithlaw/status/590837222116610049
I’m not saying it’s likely, but it is possible that Davis could make himself an effective reliever and/or LOOGY. Considering the fact that he hit .229/.301/.350 last year, I’m not sure how many teams want him as a first baseman anymore. Why not become a reliever. If he succeeds in the conversion, he becomes quite a weapon.
First of all, a team can never have enough relievers. Guys who can get lefties out will always have value. Furthermore, for all of his faults, we know he has power. He could be a viable pinch hitter or a DH in the event he’s pitched too many days in a row. With his glove, he could play first in an emergency situation.
Now, this only makes sense if he comes back on a minor league deal. You don’t want to waste a spot on the 40 man roster if he can’t hack it. I’d extend the minor league offer with an invitation to Speing Training as a reliever. If he can do it, great. If not, nothing ventured, nothing gained.
As a reliever on a minor league deal, I like Ike again.
Somewhere over the course of the baseball season, my son switched his favorite player from Lucas Duda to Daniel Murphy. I’m not quite sure why, but he did.
When we went to measure his height on his birthday on the Duda Growth Chart, he asked for a Murphy one. At one point the Duda Growth Chart had an awkward Duda body and Murphy head. My son approved.
When we go to play baseball, he insists on batting lefty. He insists despite still not exhibiting a right or left hand dominance. The reason? He wants to hit homeruns like Murphy.
My son’s pediatrician is a Mets fan. No, that’s not the reason we picked him. Five, it’s not the reason my wife picked him. Anyway, he gets a kick out of talking about the Mets with my son. When the doctor asks him who his favorite player is my son says Murphy. He then lets the pediatrician know that “Murphy homerun!”
When the pediatrician suggested he wanted Ben Zobrist to play second, my son said, “No. Murphy.” In his mind there is only one player who plays second for the Mets and that’s Murphy:
There are many reasons to bring back Murphy. However, after last night, I’m stuck with just one. No kid should lose their favorite player. Certainly, not my son.
So, I again implore the Mets to sign Murphy. Sign him because he’s the best free agent fit for the Mets. Sign him because you don’t want to disappoint a two year old.
Whatever the reason, just sign him.