2015 Playoff Preview
The Mets have already begun the process of putting together the NLDS roster. The Mets are now starting to address Eric Young, Jr.:
Terry said Eric Young is "heavily" in the mix for a postseason spot, but pointed out it's much easier for AL teams to bring specific PR.
— Matt Ehalt (@MattEhalt) September 30, 2015
Essentially, the Mets would like to add him and what he brings, but they are afraid to put him on the roster. The reason is right now he is viewed as a nothing more than a pinch runner. On an NL roster that is limiting with the need to pinch hit for a pitcher and/or double switch to help get multiple innings from a reliever. EY is no longer a good hitter (if he ever was one), but he can play the OF and 2B.
Before Juan Uribe‘s back injury, I assumed he would be on the roster leaving no room for EY. However, Uribe is hurt, so choices need to be made.
The first option is Kirk Nieuwenhuis. He doesn’t have EY’s speed, but he can run. He can play all three defensive outfield positions well, which is important with Yoenis Cespedes‘ recent injury. He has some if homeruns, but overall he has not hit well this year. The Dodgers lefty pitchers presents a problem for Nieuwenhuis, who is hitting lefties .000/.100/.000. That’s right. He has no hits against a lefty this year.
The next option option would be Eric Campbell. Campbell plays each infield position, which could be important with Wilmer Flores‘ recent back troubles. He can also play both corner OF spots, and he can be an emergency catcher. For all the versatility he has around the field defensively, he is very limited offensively. Campbell is hitting .210/.318/.302. There’s no way to spin this even with him hitting the ball hard.
So, if the Mets are looking for offense, they could look at Dilson Herrera. He’s still only 21 years old, but he shows a lot of promise at the plate. Unfortunately, his .218/.320/.379 triple slash line makes him a better offensive weapon than EY, Kirk, and Campbell. He hadn’t played much since his call-up, but he did have quite the game in Cincinnati last week going 3-4 with a walk, two runs, two RBIs, and a homerun.
The problem with Herrera is versatility. He’s only played 2B. If you’re on the bench, you may be needed to play somewhere other than where you’re most comfortable. However, that issue may be assuaged with Daniel Murphy‘s and Kelly Johnson‘s versatility.
I’m not sure which direction the Mets are going on now. Each choice has problems of its own. I don’t dven know which way I would go right now. What I do know is that this may be the biggest decision the Mets had since getting Cespedes.
I hope this choice will work out just as well.
I have readily admitted that I have written too much about Dario Alvarez. My blog is about two months old, and I probably have more Alvarez posts than anyone. When Alvarez got hurt, I thought I was done with him, at least for the season. I was wrong:
Heard Alvarez looked good facing batters at instructs the other day. Got off the mound well. Slider was sharp. https://t.co/ouYkqa9O2t
— Marc Carig (@MarcCarig) September 30, 2015
Well, Alvarez is back, and he might be coming back just in time. The Mets are still looking for lefties in the bullpen. It’s part of the reason Jon Niese is out there. Unlike Niese, Alvarez is a true LOOGY and bullpen arm.
There’s only five games left to see if Alvarez is ready for game action. This roster selection process just got a lot more complicated.
Overall, Matt Harvey may be the best pitcher on the Mets. He may have the best stuff he may have that clutch gene. However, he had not been the Mets pitcher this year. That honor goes to Jacob deGrom.
deGrom leads the Mets in ERA, strikeouts, WHIP, ERA+, WHIP, and hair. By every measure, he is the logical choice to be the Game One starter. He’s the guy the Mets want on the mound to start the playoffs. He’s the guy you want in Game a Five if I comes to it. However, it sounds like he’s getting it by default:
Terry also said Harvey will not be making six playoff starts so don't expect a Bumgarner redux.
— Matt Ehalt (@MattEhalt) September 29, 2015
No one except the Game One NLDS starter could possibly pitch in six postseason games. The only other way it could happen is if the Mets started someone on three day’s rest, which is something the Mets are probably not going to do. The effect of this statement is to say Harvey’s our best pitcher, but with innings limits, we’re going with deGrom.
That’s not fair to deGrom, who has had a great year. He was an All Star. He leads the Mets in almost every statistical category. He’s earned the Game One start.
The Mets should just come out and say that.
After the Mets clinched, the rumblings began that Bartolo Colon may be in the postseason rotation:
https://twitter.com/jareddiamond/status/648148020169732096
Regardless of Steven Matz‘s recent sofa injury, it seems like Colon may have had an inside track to the NLDS rotation anyway:
Sandy said Colon's experience vs Matz inexperience is a factor in the 4th rotation spot in the playoffs. #mets
— Michael Baron (@michaelgbaron) September 29, 2015
There’s some merit to the decision. Experience can help calm nerves in the playoffs. Colon doesn’t walk anyone. Most importantly, he was good in his only start against the Dodgers this year (even if it was a loss).
However, I’m having some trouble trying to reconcile Colon in the rotation with the fact that Matz will definitely be on the playoff roster. The reason why I’m having trouble is because the Mets have been steadfast in saying Matz will not pitch in the bullpen. Therefore, I think the Mets announced, without announcing it, Matz will be the fourth starter.
I think it’s the right move. The Dodgers have a lot of lefties in the lineup. Colon has not been good against over .500 teams. Matz has better stuff. It’s time to get Matz and his grandfather ready for Game 4 . . . if necessary.
If rumors are correct, the Mets will go with the four man rotation of Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Matt Harvey, and Steven Matz. I put them purposefully in that order because that’s how the Nets intend to line them up in the playoffs.
These four pitchers have had zero postseason appearances. In fact, as a group, they have less than five years of experience. This just highlights the total lack of postseason experience for the entire Mets staff. Overall, there are only three pitchers on the Mets who have any playoff experience:
- Bartolo Colon (10 starts) 2-4, 3.70 ERA, 58.1 IP, 1.389 WHIP
- Tyler Clippard (3 appearances) 0-0, 1.50 ERA, 6 IP, 0 SV, 0.667 WHIP
- Eric O’Flaherty (1 appearance) 0-0, 0.00 ERA, 1 IP, 0 SV, 2.00 WHIP
Unless his back prevents him, Clippard will be on the postseason roster. I believe the Mets will find a spot for Colon even if he isn’t starting. There’s no shot that O’Flaherty makes the team.
I’m not concerned at all. This was the case with the 1991 Braves rotation,nand they went to the World Series. The same goes for the 2003 Marlins. The 2008 Giants had a young core of starting pitchers they relied upon to win their first World Series in San Francisco. K-Rod burst on the scene on the 2002 Angels World Series Championship team. There’s another, better example for Mets fans. 1986.
In 1986, the Mets had Dwight Gooden (3 major league seasons), Ron Darling (4 major league seasons), Bobby Ojeda (7 major league season), and Sid Fernandez (4 major league seasons) make starts. Combined they had more than triple the major league experience of this current group of pitchers. However, they were still young and had zero postseason experience. The lack of postseason experience didn’t hold them back. The reason was their talent.
That’s right. For all the talk about what wins in the playoffs, we always forget the talent gap. This Mets rotation is the most talented in the NL, most likely all of baseball. If I have to choose between experience and talent, I pick talent every time.
It looks like the Mets are as well. Then again what choice do they have?
After a heartbreaking loss in Game 7 of the 2006 NLCS, the Mets entered the 2007 season as favorites to at least win the BL East. Jimmy Rollins had other ideas proclaiming the Phillies “the team to beat in the NL East – finally.”
Rollins backed it up with a historic Mets collapse and his winning the NL MVP. In 2007, Rollins hit .346/.391/.667 against the Mets. As we all know, the Mets would collapse again in 2008. These memories have haunted Mets fans ever since.
The Mets now face him and his former and new teammate, noted Mets killer, Chase Utley, in the NLDS. Once again, Rollins and Utley stand in the Mets way. I know Mets fans are more upbeat since clinching a playoff berth, and they are expecting an NLDS victory. Losing to Rollins and Utley now would inflict more harm on Mets fans than those two already have.
If the Mets win, they will have exercised those two demons from 2007 & 2008. With Adam Wainwright possibly returning to the Cardinals bullpen, they might be able to exorcise another demon in the NLCS.
There are two choices for 4. The first is Ron Swoboda, who was a key contributor to the 1969 Mets World Series victory:
However, my choice for Magic Man Number 4 will be Lenny Dykstra:
I chose Dykstra mostly because I got to see him play. I chose him because he was amazing in the 1986 postseason.
In the NLCS, he hit .304/.360/.565. He hit a walk off two run homerun in Game 3 of the NLCS to give the Mets a 6-5 win. He got the Game 6 ninth inning rally started with a leadoff triple. Everyone who watched this NLCS discuss the importance of winning in six with NLCS MVP Mike Scott scheduled to pitch Game 7.
In the World Series, Dykstra hit .296/.345/.519. Strangely enough, Dykstra was so big in big games that this was his worst ever postseason series. Dykstra lead off Game 3 in Boston with a homerun. This was important as the Mets came to Boston after losing the first two at Shea.
When Dykstra did all of this, he was only 23 years old. It shows that it’s not an issue of experience come October. Rather, it’s an issue of who has ice water running through their veins. This is important to keep in mind because the Mets run largely rests with their young pitching.
The young pitching has met every challenge thus far. As Dykstra shows us, they will meet the challenges they face en route to the World Series.
Sounds absurd doesn’t it? Michael Conforto has exceeded everyone’s expectations this year. He’s been a huge part of the team. However, he’s been used strictly as a platoon player. It’s probably because he’s hitting .167/.231/.167 against lefties this year, albeit in only 13 plate appearances.
Normally, this wouldn’t be an issue, but the Dodgers will be starting three lefties in the NLDS. If Clayton Kershaw starts Games 1 & 5, that means Conforto won’t start in four of the five NLDS games. I don’t think the Mets will prep Conforto for the lefties either. On clinch day, the Reds had a lefty on the mound, and Conforto was the only lefty who wasn’t in the lineup.
The question that arises is what use can Conforto be as a bench player? Even with his surprising defensive ability, he’s not a late inning defensive replacement; that’s Juan Lagares‘ job. That leaves him for pinch hitting and double switch and pinch hitting duties.
You could argue that role may be better left to Kirk Nieuwenhuis, who can play CF, or Eric Campbell, who’s right handed. Campbell is also versatile, which could be useful after the Juan Uribe injury. Both Nieuwenhuis and Campbell are also more accustomed to being bench players that sit for long stretches at a time.
However, this neglects Conforto’s limited work as a bench player. Conforto has hit .333/.429/.500 in seven plate appearances as a pinch hitter. Also, he’s just a better player than Nieuwenhuis and Campbell. When you’re selecting your playoff roster, you want your best players on the roster, even if they’re not going to play as much as they should.
However, if he’s left off the roster I’m not going to take issue. Anytime a player is potentially not going to play four out of five games, there should be a discussion whether there’s a player available who can better serve the team.
I just don’t think there is a better player than Michael Conforto.
In 1969, the Mets had a platoon at third base with the rookie left handed batter Wayne Garrett and our Magic Man Number 5 Ed Charles:
The Glider was a good major league player for the Kansas City Athletics and the New York Mets. His major league debut was the same year as the Mets first ever season. His last ever game was Game 5 of the 1969 World Series. He went out a winner.
His last year reminds me of the current Michael Conforto–Michael Cuddyer situation. The older player takes a step back to let the better, younger player shine. It helped lead the Mets to a World Series in 1969. Hopefully, the Mets will win it all again this year.
Lets Go Mets!
Now, I’m on the record as not thinking Homefield is an advantage to the Mets. Overall, I think the Mets may be better served by stating the NLDS in Los Angeles. However, I am excited to see the Mets go for it.
Also, I have to admit I am excited at the idea of seeing Citi Field rocking for its first playoff game. Also, I had a lot of fun doing the Magic Number countdown for the divisional title. Unlike the last time, I am not focusing on the bad players on bad years. Mets fans are celebrating.
Instead, I’m focusing on Mets who have won the World Series because that’s the goal. I can’t truly focus on players I’ve seen because I wasn’t born in 1969, and I was too young to completely remember 1986.
Normally, the magic number is calculated by determining the point in which a team obtains its goal outright. Because the Mets win the season series against the Dodgers, the Mets only need to have the same exact record as the Dodgers.
Homefield Magic Number: 5