2015 Playoff Preview
Yesterday, the Mets announced the players they are putting on the taxi squad: Eric Young, Jr., Anthony Recker, Logan Verrett, Eric Campbell, and Bobby Parnell. I think we can separate the remaining players into three categories: (1) players definitely on the roster; (2) players who are in consideration for the roster; and (3) players who are just being sent home. The players definitely on the roster has already been addressed. Here’s the other two categories:
Players under Consideration
Juan Uribe – the Mets want him on the roster, but it does not appear he’s healthy enough to play. I hope that August 23rd pinch hitting appearance was worth it.
Steven Matz – had he not slept on a couch, he would’ve been on the roster. Now the Mets have their fingers crossed he can pitch.
Kirk Nieuwenhuis – he seems to be the front runner for Uribe’s spot. He plays all three OF positions, has speed, and has some pop in his bat. He’s had a rough year, but he’s had some big hits since returning to the Mets.
Dilson Herrera – he’s the Mets best defensive infielder even if he only plays 2B. He’s got potential offensively and defensively. He has not realized his potential yet, but he’s still a right handed bat with pop going into a series with good left handed pitching.
Erik Goeddel – he seems to be a favorite to get a spot in the bullpen if Matz can’t pitch. In limited time, he’s shown a great splitter which has helped him with a 9.2 K/9. He could help with a strikeout in a big spot.
Sean Gilmartin – he’s been the long man, but he has reverse splits with a series with a series with huge left-handed bats. His spot is tenuous mostly with the presence of Colon, Niese, and possibly Matz on the roster.
Players Done for the Year
Johnny Monell – the Mets made their choice with Recker as the third catcher.
Carlos Torres – he took the ball whenever he was asked until he got hurt. He had a skill that helps in the regular season, but he has no room on the playoff roster.
Dario Alvarez – when he finally got a chance to pitch, he was effective. He got a huge strikeout of Bryce Harper back when the division was still in doubt. He go hurt, fought his way back, and he was ineffective.
Eric O’Flaherty – there’s not enough words to describe how bad he’s been, so I’ll keep it short. He’s horrendous.
There are still important decisions to be made. I know a lot of it hinges on Matz. I anticipate this will be a tight series, and these final choices may have a real impact. I hope they pick the right players.
Right now, it appears that Juan Uribe will miss the NLDS with torn cartilage in his rib cage. He won’t be on the roster, but the better question is, “Will the Mets miss him?”
Despite rumors to the contrary, Uribe is not a good postseason player. He’s hit .204/.241/.338 in 44 postseason games. As a Met, he’s hit .219/.301/.430 in 44 games. He has hit lefties well going .272/.350/.543. As a pinch hitter, he’s 4-21 with a homer, four walks, and nine strikeouts.
He’s 3-11 against Clayton Kershaw with a double, a homerun, and three strikeouts. He’s 5-20 against Zack Greinke with a double, a homerun, a walk, and a strikeout. He’s 1-3 with a strikeout against Alex Wood. He’s 1-2 with a double against Brett Anderson. He’s never faced Kenly Jansen.
Overall, Uribe has not been good with the Mets, even if he’s had his moments. However, he wasn’t going to play in the NLDS even with all of the Dodgers’ lefties. The Mets are not going to sit Daniel Murphy. If they were inclined to sit Lucas Duda, Michael Cuddyer would play first with Juan Lagares in center and Yoenis Cespedes in left. At best, Uribe would be a pinch hitter.
Whether or not he can play, Uribe still has an important role on this team. He has won two World Series. He’s a veteran leader. He keeps the clubhouse loose. I appreciate players feel more a part of a team while being able to play, but Uribe has shown he’s a special clubhouse guy. He’s needed in the dugout and in the clubhouse.
So no, the Mets aren’t hurt by Uribe’s inability to play. That still doesn’t mean he’s not needed.
UPDATE: Uribe is definitely out
Sandy Alderson says Juan Uribe out for division series.
— Adam Rubin (@AdamRubinMedia) October 6, 2015
Well, it seems I was wrong about Eric Young, Jr. I can’t say I am too upset about it. It seems like the last man on the roster will be Kirk Nieuwenhuis, although I still think Dilson Herrera is getting a long look as he’s not on the taxi squad.
With that said, here’s my re-revised NLDS roster projection.
Catchers
1. Travis d’Arnaud
2. Kevin Plawecki
Infielders
3. Lucas Duda
4. Daniel Murphy
5. David Wright
6. Ruben Tejada
7. Wilmer Flores
8. Kelly Johnson
Outfielders
9. Michael Conforto
10. Yoenis Cespedes
11. Curtis Granderson
12. Michael Cuddyer
13. Juan Lagares
14. Kirk Nieuwenhuis
Starting Pitchers
15. Jacob deGrom
16. Noah Sundergaard
17. Matt Harvey
18. Bartolo Colon
Bullpen
19. Jeurys Familia
20. Addison Reed
21. Tyler Clippard
22. Hansel Robles
23. Jon Niese
24. Erik Goeddel
25. Sean Gilmartin
If he’s healthy, and he won’t be, Juan Uribe would replace Nieuwenhuis. Also, I’m not putting Steven Matz on my projected roster because he didn’t pitch. If I hear differently with the Instructuonal League appearance, I may still leave him off the projected roster.
I can’t trust the Mets to be honest on the topic. If I’m convinced, then I would slot him in the rotation moving Colon to the bullpen. That would then bump Gilmartin from the roster.
I’m not calling this 2.0. To me that would indicate that I will make a number of changes, but I wanted to show you my work product. There’s nothing wrong with that, but that’s not my intention when I share my projections.
However, there has been another major development with Steven Matz‘s back. As I said yesterday, I was not going to trust he was going to pitch until he actually pitches.
Catchers
1. Travis d’Arnaud
2. Kevin Plawecki
Infielders
3. Lucas Duda
4. Daniel Murphy
5. Kelly Johnson
6. David Wright
7. Ruben Tejada
8. Wilmer Flores
Outfielders
9. Michael Conforto
10. Michael Cuddyer
11. Yoenis Cespedes
12. Juan Lagares
13. Curtis Granderson
Pinch Runner
14. Eric Young, Jr.
Starting Pitchers
15. Jacob deGrom
16. Noah Syndergaard
17. Matt Harvey
18. Bartolo Colon
Relief Pitchers
19. Jeurys Familia
20. Addison Reed
21. Tyler Clippard
22. Hansel Robles
23. Jon Niese
24. Sean Gilmartin
25. Erik Goeddel
As you can see, the only change I made between the projections was exchanging Matz for Goeddel. I chose Goeddel because he’s been pretty good lately, and he can generate strikeouts with his splitter.
I still think there are two other players under consideration: Kirk Nieuwenhuis and Dilson Herrera. Kirk has been good lately, has some power, can run, and can play all three OF positions. However, since he’s a left handed bat going into a series with a lot of LHP, I don’t think the Mets will put him on the roster.
I think Dilson is getting consideration because he’s a right handed bat and definitively the team’s best defensive second baseman. With Flores’ back injury, Herrera is a definite possibility. What hurts him most is he only plays 2B. As I said in another post, the presence of Murphy and Johnson could alleviate those concerns.
However, for right now, I think the Mets give EY the edge, especially because he’s a Terry Collins favorite. If anything else happens, I’ll put out another revised projection.
Quick question for everyone: what is the Mets goal for the rest of the season? Wrong. It’s not getting Homefield advantage. It’s getting the team ready for the playoffs.
In order for that to happen, here’s what needs to get done:
- Steven Matz needs to get five innings on Saturday or Sunday meaning a short start for either Jacob deGrom or Matt Harvey;
- You don’t risk David Wright‘s back playing on a sloppy or wet field;
- Yoenis Cespedes needs to be in Germany or anywhere that can aggressively treat a bruise;
- Jon Niese needs to pitch in two games this weekend;
- Play Dilson Herrera at multiple positions to see if he can make the playoff roster;
- No wasted at bats to Eric Campbell, Anthony Recker, Johnny Monell, or anyone that the Mets are not considering putting on the playoff roster;
- Same goes for the relievers even if there is a blowout. They need to stay fresh;
- Get Travis d’Arnaud back on track;
- Allow Michael Conforto to hit against some lefties because he’s eventually going to have to face one in October; and
- Get out of the weekend healthy.
If the Mets accomplish the above, they will be in a strong position entering the playoffs. Homefield advantage is secondary to this. If the Mets get it, great. If they don’t, it may inure to their benefit. Overall, I’m absolutely convinced the Mets do not need homefield advantage in the NLDS to win.
The Mets have not had the best history when it comes to handling injuries:
https://twitter.com/jareddiamond/status/648960775751639040
They’ve been really bad when it comes to diagnosing and treating back injuries. The Mets recently botched the diagnosis and treatment of Lucas Duda‘s back problems. Now, they’re doing it with Steven Matz on the eve of the NLDS.
Originally, it was classified as a problem with Matz’s side. This was a problem in and of itself with his prior injury. However, everyone was rest assured that Matz would start on Thursday instead of Wednesday. Then, it was discovered it wasn’t a side injury; it was a back injury. And oh yeah, his Thursday start was going to be skipped. He’s not going to pitch on Friday either.
In fact, he’s not going to start for the rest of the regular season. Collins is going to try to find five innings on Saturday or Sunday; two games that may never get played due to rain. There’s been no explanation why today is not a possibility. I’m starting to wonder what the excuse will be on Saturday and/or Sunday when Mstz doesn’t pitch.
I can’t trust that he’ll be available for the playoffs in the rotation or the bullpen. No one should.
In an effort to pitch in the playoffs, Jon Niese volunteered to pitch in the bullpen. His first two appearances did not go well, but not all hope is lost. There are still some reasons why the Mets may want him on the NLDS roster, namely:
I think this is why Jon Niese will be on the postseason roster.
Chase Utley: 3 for 32 against him
Adrian Gonzalez: 0 for 9 against him
— Mark Simon (@MarkASimonSays) October 1, 2015
With those numbers against the Dodgers best hitter, there’s a spot for you on the team. He would most likely get the call when/if Gonzalez is up in a big spot.
Here’s his head-to-head data against some of the other Dodger players:
Jimmy Rollins 12-54, 3 doubles, 4 walks, 8 strikeouts
Carl Crawford 0-3
Andre Ethier 4-10, 2 strikeouts
A.J.Ellis 2-11, 1 double, two walks, 1 strikeout
Chris Heisey 3-10, 1 homerun, 1 strikeout
Howie Kendrick 1-7, 1 strikeout
Basically, he pitched pretty well against them. If not for 2015 arguably being his worst year and the presence of better options, you could make the argument he could start.
Besides his success against the Dodgers, Steven Matz has been dealing with a balky back. This means the Mets will need to have Bartolo Colon start Game Four or be ready to pitch in Game Four if Marz goes down. This means Niese may need to be ready as the long man in Colon’s stead
The other reason why he may be out there is the Mets don’t have a true LOOGY. They’re going to need someone to get those lefties out in the NLDS, and I’m not sure they’re going to trust Hansel Robles, even if he has the best numbers against lefties. If you’re going to insist on a lefty against a lefty, you might as well use one who’s had success against the Dodgers.
With three games left, there’s not much time to get him fully up to speed in the bullpen. At best, he probably can pitch in two more games. No matter what happens in those games, it will be a gamble to put Niese in the bullpen.
I’ll take that gamble over the gamble of having someone else pitching to Gonzalez in a big spot.
Mets fans let out a collective sigh of relief when we discovered Yoenis Cespedes didn’t suffer a fracture after being hit by a pitch. However, that doesn’t mean he’s alright:
BBTN Minute: Doug Glanville and Keith Law discuss the injury to Mets OF Yoenis Cespedes and its impact.http://t.co/VGzdHVPXiT
— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) October 1, 2015
As Keith Law stated the problem is even if Cespedes can play, he may lose his power. That’s problematic because his power is what makes him a special player. Without the power, he’s a guy who has a .319 career OBP that doesn’t have the range to play CF. I hate to say it, but without the power it suddenly becomes a debate as to whether the Mets should start Juan Lagares.
I’d still start Cespedes. I’m hopeful that a week will be enough for his fingers to heal. I’m hopeful because Cespedes said he’s ready to play now. I’m hopeful because Terry Collins is doing the right thing and giving Cespedes time to heal. It’s important to keep him healthy because he’s been a terrific playoff performer.
The Mets will need him. They will need him at full strength. If he’s not, the Mets are in trouble. Until we know Cespedes is Cespedes, Mets fans should be nervous.
In 2013, Michael Wacha burst on the scene in the playoffs, and it was declared “Wachtober.” If the Mets go far in the postseason, here are some suggestions for the new Wachtober:
Matt Harvey – Mattober or Dark Knightober
Jacob deGrom -Jaketober
Noah Syndergaard – Thortober
Steven Matz – Matztober
Bartolo Colon – Bartober
Curtis Granderson – Curtober
Daniel Murphy – Murphtober
David Wright – Wrightober
Michael Conforto – Confortober
Yoenis Cespedes – Yotober
Of course, this is dependent on the Mets making a deep run and one, or more of these guys being a major contributor. I hope I get to use these.
If you have a suggestion (even to an existing one), please pass it along. If I like it, I will update the list and credit your Twitter handle.
With all due respect to Rafael Santana, the only choice for Homefield Magic Number 3 is Bud Harrelson:
He has been involved in more postseason and World Series games than anyone in Mets history. He was the SS on the 1969 Miracle Mets and the 1973 Mets. He was the third base coach for the 1986 World Series winning team, and the 1988 team. He was the inaugural member of the Mets Hall of Fame.
He’s the biggest winner the Mets have ever known. He’s one of the few who had two Mets World Series rings. He was never one to back down. He embodies the spirit these Mets will need in order to win the World Series this year.
Hopefully, the Mets on this team will win multiple World Series like Harrelson did.