Terry Collins
Terry Collins is 100% correct that you worry about getting to the playoffs, and then you let the chips fall where they may. I know I’m in the minority on this, but I don’t want the Mets fighting for homefield in the NLDS.
The first reason is the rotation. We may not know who the fourth starter is, but we do know that Jacob deGrom, Matt Harvey, and Noah Syndergaard will get starts. We also know Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke will start Games 1 & 2. With Syndergaard’s home/road splits, I don’t want the Mets to have a reason to start Thor in Game 2 to keep him at Citi Field over Harvey. I like the idea of coming home and having a huge edge in the pitching matchup with Thor at home.
The second reason is the Mets offense. Kershaw and Greinke are hard enough to hit. I know the Mets will be hitting in the shadows at Dodger Stadium, but the Mets hitters are better on the road. Yoenis Cespedes hits .220/.283/.484 at Citi Field. Daniel Murphy is hitting .256/.296/.429. Curtis Granderson is hitting .236/.331/.415 (although his Dodger Stadium numbers are similar). Travis d’Arnaud is .252/.320/.461. The Mets offense travels better. Let the have a better shot at getting going early in the playoffs than struggle at home.
The final and most important reason is the importance of Games 3 & 4. The Mets would be coming home either down 0-2, tied 1-1, or up 2-0. If you’re down 0-2, there’s no place you’d rather be at home to stave off elimination. You’d also rather be home tied so you have a shot to go up 2-1 in front of a rabid fan base. If the Mets come home up 2-0, after beating Kershaw and Greinke, series over.
Therefore, I don’t think homefield advantage is something you don’t want to get. Just get the team healthy and ready for the NLDS.
Right now, there are 14 Mets players who look to have a strong claim to a playoff spot with two players on the cusp of cracking into that group. Of these 16 players, only seven players have postseason experience. Here’s how they’ve fared:
- Juan Uribe (44 games) .204/.241/.338, 5 HR, 24 RBI
- David Wright (10 games) .216/.310/.378, 1 HR, 6 RBI
- Kelly Johnson (8 games) .143/.250/.429, 0 HR, 0 RBI
- Yoenis Cespedes (10 games) .340/.395/.525, 1 HR, 6 RBI
- Michael Cuddyer (22 games) .338/.372/.473, 2 HR, 8 RBI
- Curtis Granderson (36 games) .229/.333/.458, 6 HR, 17 RBI
- Eric Young, Jr. (2 games) .000/.000/.000
Now, these are short sample sizes, but outside of Cespedes, they’re not promising. Outside of Cespedes, the only player that has had success consistently in the playoffs is Cuddyer, who is a part time player.
If these stats hold true, and I’m not sure we can expect that, this means one of two things: (1) Cespedes will have to carry the Mets offensively; and/or (2) the Mets will need players, who haven’t been to the playoffs before, to perform.
The Royals last year showed you didn’t need postseason experience. They took out Jon Lester, who’s a terrific postseason pitcher. They swept an experienced Angels team in the ALDS. They then beat an Orioles team in the ALCS who had recently been in the playoffs.
The Royals mainly lost the World Series because they were beaten by a great manager in Bruce Bochy and an all-time postseason pitcher in Madison Bumgarner. As always, it comes down to pitching, and right now, the Mets have that in spades. As long as they get enough offense and Terry Collins doesn’t implode, the Mets can have a run just like the Royals did.
It appears like this October will feature low scoring, tight games. I think the Mets will be ready for it. Lets Go Mets!
It appears the Mets have soured on Juan Lagares. Last year, he was a Gold Glove winner, who showed some promise with the bat hitting .281/.321/.382. Using WAR, he was a top 25 player in the majors last year (12th in the NL).
This year has been much different. Lagares hasn’t been the same offensively or defensively. His UZR has slipped from 18.6 (excellent) to 2.1 (average). His arm was terrific last year, but with his injured elbow, he doesn’t seem to have the same zip on the ball. With his defense compromised, you can’t justify his declining offense. This year he has regressed to .259/.289/.362.
This is probably why the Mets tried to send him to the Brewers in the failed Carlos Gomez trade. This is the reason the Mets are playing Yoenis Cespedes out of position. It may be the reason he was the only Mets outfielder who didn’t get in the game yesterday.
In any event, he’s been reduced to a platoon player and a late inning defensive replacement. His arrow is trending down while Eric Young, Jr.‘s is trending up. He’s been a terrific pinch runner that can come in handy in the playoffs. We also shouldn’t forget he’s a Collins’ favorite.
Ultimately, what may save Lagares in the NLDS is the fact that the Dodgers starting rotation features three lefties. Collins refuses to play Michael Conforto leaving Collins to pick between Michael Cuddyer and Lagares. Cuddyer has only played in seven complete games since returning from the DL. This means the Mets need Lagares in the NLDS.
This means the Mets need Lagares to get back on track offensively and defensively.
Both Terry Collins and David Wright have each been involved in multiple September collapses. With that said, I found it interesting that they both disagree with whether or not the Mets are playing tight. With that in mind I thought it would be helpful to look at what’s going on after Collins’ tough game last night:
Maybe the Mets will now keep their composure down the stretch now.
Well this game went haywire fast. One moment Bartolo Colon is cruising to another win against an NL East opponent. He had gone 4.2 perfect and was not threatened through six. The next thing you know, Terry Collins goes into full panic mode.
The Braves quickly loaded the bases in the sixth. Collins then forgot how to manage. He brought in Addison Reed (fine move) by double switching Michael Conforto out of the game for Kirk Nieuwenhuis (ponderous). Essentially, Collins took out a good defensive OF for decent defensive OF who also hits left handed. If it was a defensive move, Collins left his best defensive OF, Juan Lagares, on the bench.
It has to be the only reason. After Reed allowed a bases clearing double to put the Mets behind 3-2, he wouldn’t come back out for the seventh. Don’t kill Reed. He was beat by Mets killer Freddie Freeman.
When the Braves figured out they can use a left handed reliever, Nieuwenhuis was out of the game in favor of Michael Cuddyer, who didn’t get the job done.
Collins did get one thing right. After Ruben Tejada singled to lead off the inning, Collins eventually realized Eric Young, Jr. was available to pinch run. He came on, stole a base, and he scored on a David Wright RBI two out single tying the game at 3-3. By the way, Young set a Mets record with nine runs scored before getting a hit.
Unfortunately, Collins inane managing came back to haunt the Mets. In the eighth inning, Conforto’s spot came up with two outs and one on. Instead of Conforto, it was the pinch hitter Kelly Johnson, who struck out. In the next half inning, Freeman hit a three run homerun off Jeurys Familia giving the Braves the 6-3 lead.
Collins was horrendous tonight. He claims the Mets are tight. He looked like he was the one that was tight . . . at least I hope that was the reason.
If nothing else, Daniel Murphy keeps things interesting. He’s just as likely to make an amazing play as he is to make a routine play look like an adventure. He will hit a double and then get lost on the way to third.
Today was no exception. In the first inning, he singled setting up first and second with no out. After a Yoenis Cespedes single and a Lucas Duda popout, Travis d’Arnaud hit into the routine 5-4-6 double play. It wasn’t really routine, it was a classic Murphy TOOBLAN. Murphy assumed the play was over and he got caught between second and third. He got burned so bad, he had to apply Chapstick. No, that’s not a joke. He literally applied Chapstick after the play.
Since it wasn’t a continuation play, the run counted giving the Mets a 1-0 lead. In the second, the lead would expand to 2-0 on a Michael Conforto opposite field homerun. Actually, it wasn’t a Conforto homerun, it was a:
https://twitter.com/keithlaw/status/646107589948907520
Murphy would redeem himself for killing the first inning rally by hitting a two RBI double in the seventh scoring the pinch running Eric Young, Jr. (8 runs scored, no hits for the Mets) and Curtis Granderson (1-3, two walks, and two runs scored). Once again Granderson was a catalyst. Once again Murphy giveth and Murphy taketh.
On the pitching side, Jon Niese pitched well after eight days of rest. He got a number of groundballs. His final line was six innings, three hits, two walks, and two strikeouts. Some questioned pulling him after six innings and 88 pitches, but I agree with Terry Collins. He’s been so bad lately that you get him out of there whe he’s feeling good, and he gave you enough depth.
The 7-8-9 of Addison Reed–Tyler Clippard–Jeurys Familia combined to preserve the 4-0 win. Nothing like a bad Braves team and some Chapstick to smooth over the rough stretch and help get the Mets a win.
I was talking to one of my loyal readers a while back, my cousin Brian, and he said to me, “you really hate Terry Collins.” Honestly, I don’t. I think he’s a good man that makes baffling moves. However, I will admit he irked me yesterday. Here is his quote regarding Matt Harvey:
It’s hard for me to get it, because I am, at heart, the old-school guy. But I understand where it’s coming from. Therefore, you adjust to it. Because I’ve said before, there’s a lot of things in our game today I don’t necessarily agree with. You either adjust to it, or get out. So, I’m adjusting to it.
I read that as a veiled shot at Harvey and the innings limits. I read that as Collins wanting to push Harvey in a relatively meaningless September game when he should be getting his team ready for the playoffs. I wasn’t expecting that from him.
When it came to Johan Santana and his no-hitter, Collins was moved to tears over the possibility of ruining the guy’s career post-surgery. Three years later, Collins said he was still affected by it. He says he’s learned from it, and he will act accordingly. I don’t think he was lying. I just think old habits and views are tough to break.
I think he admires Johan for going out there and getting it, as we all should. I think he has disdain for the innings limits, but he just won’t come out and say it. It’s amazing the man crying over possibly ruining a guy’s career for a moment of glory is irked by getting a young pitcher rest so he can pursue his moment of glory.
I thought Collins learned something three years ago, and maybe because of that, he was the right guy to handle Harvey this year. I saw a guy that wanted to protect his players. I saw a guy who knew the right time to go for it. I guess I was wrong.
With the additions of Tyler Clippard and Addison Reed, Sandy Alderson has really surged up the bullpen. The seventh, eighth, and ninth innings are locked down.
What is great about these pitchers is they can get both lefties and righties out. It eliminates the need to go to matchups late in the game. That’s important because you risk exposing a LOOGY to a right handed pinch hitter in a key spot in a game. Of course, I’m being optimistic here because I have no choice. However, this doesn’t address the need to get a lefty out in the fifth or sixth inning.
With the Dario Alvarez injury and the ineffectiveness of Eric O’Flaherty, the Mets are not going to have a LOOGY in the mold of Pedro Feliciano for the playoffs. In fact, that leaves the Mets with one effective lefty in the bullpen, Sean Gilmartin, who has reverse splits and is better suited as the long man. So where do the Mets go from here?
Let’s start with who’s not an option. We know Jerry Blevins is out for the season. I’ve also seen and heard rumblings from people for the Mets to look at Josh Smoker. There’s some problem with Smoker. First, he’s never pitched above AA. Second, his stats are deceiving. At 26, he’s old for that level thereby skewing his stats a bit. Lastly, he hasn’t pitched in over 10 days. His season is over, and I presume he shut it down. If so, he’s not ready.
So that leaves Hansel Robles to get the lefties out. Looking at his splits, he gets lefties out better than a LOOGY ever could. He is limiting them to .188/.250/.438. Sure, it seems odd using a RHP to get out a lefty, but I’m more interested in effectiveness than appearance. I wonder if Terry Collins will see it that way, or will he bring in Gilmartin to get a lefty out in a big spot?
With Adrian Gonzalez, and to a lesser extent Andre Ethier, on the horizon, it’s an issue that needs to be figured out sooner rather than later.
One of the things I like to do is to go see a Broadway show during previews and right before Opening Night. By that time, many of the kinks are worked out, but the actors are still trying things to see if it works. Even better, the tickets are at a discount.
Tonight was preview night at Citi Field. The Mets had BOGO tickets. Terry Collins tried some stuff out like batting Lucas Duda seventh against a righty. He started Michael Cuddyer in RF against the lefty over Curtis Granderson. He only let Logan Verrett go five innings in a game tied at one despite throwing under 70 pitches.
Collins would bring in Sean Gilmartin in the sixth. Was this to see both potential long men, or was this a preview for a future Matt Harvey rumored half start. Gilmartin would show his rust giving up two runs to the Marlins. However, like the Broadway previews, the stars brought it and brought down the house.
Yoenis Cespedes opened the scoring in the third with a bomb to left field. After the Mets fell behind, Travis d’Arnaud hit a game tying two run homer. Finally, the biggest star of them all, David Wright, hit the go-ahead ground rule double scoring the pinch running Eric Young, Jr. (who also stole a base). Jeurys Familia came on in the ninth and saved the 4-3 win.
We can expect a lot more of this over the next month. These are the types of things you can and should do with a large division lead in September. Because the Mets are so good, they’re going to win a lot of those games.
I can’t wait for when this show makes its October debut.