Steven Matz
Just like the NLDS, all the Mets have to do is split on the road. After the first two games, the Mets will have Noah Syndergaard for Game 3 in Citi Field.
This is a tremendous advantage for the Mets. Thor is 7-2 with a 2.43 ERA, 0.821 WHIP, and a 9.2 K/9 at home. In the playoffs, he’s 1-1 with a one hold, a 2.77 ERA, 1.077 WHIP, and a 13.8 K/9. In his one postseason start at home, in three days rest, he pitched 5.2 innings allowing 3 hits, 1 earned, 1 walk, and 9 K. I don’t care if the Royals feel Yordano Ventura is their ace. Thor is better.
Ventura in four starts this postseason is 0-1 this postseason with a 5.09 ERA and a 1.58 WHIP. How am I to believe he will shut down a Mets team that is raking this postseason. Then after this, you can call Game Four a coin flip between Steven Matz and old friend Chris Young. After this, the rotations flip, and the Mets continue their strong starting pitching advantage.
Overall, the more I think about it, this is like 1969. The Mets weren’t supposed to be there. They were underdogs. They started the franchise, Tom Seaver, in Game One. He was the Cy Young Award winner. The Mets superstar and best chance of winning. The Mets lost Game One, and it seemed the sweep was on.
The Mets had a strong young pitching staff that went beyond just Seaver. Jerry Koosman flipped the script with a dominant Game Two performance. The Mets then took care of the Orioles in five.
The moral of the story is the Mets just need to split in Kansas City, and they are in great shape to win this World Series. I think they will win.
LETS GO METS!
It seemed like the immediate narrative after the conclusion of both League Championship Series was the Mets biggest strength may not be a strength in the World Series:
Royals vs. 95-mph+ pitches, MLB ranks in parentheses:
BA: .284 (1st)
SLG: .432 (2nd)
K%: 15.1% (1st)Mets throw the most 95-mph+ pitches.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) October 24, 2015
As we all know, the Mets greatest strength is its good young pitching. The Mets pitching throws it hard and over 95 MPH:
- Matt Harvey – 96.54 MPH four seamer and 96.11 MPH sinker
- Jacob deGrom – 95.81 MPH four seamer and 95.49 MPH sinker
- Noah Syndergaard – 97.75 MPH four seamer and 97.78 MPH sinker
- Steven Matz 94.57 MPH four seamer
- Jeurys Familia 98.21 MPH four seamer and 97.66 MPH sinker
That’s not good news. Fortunately for the Mets, that’s not the whole story. While the Royals hit high heat well, they do not hit offspeed pitching and breaking balls well. The Royals are only hitting .220 on pitches 87 MPH and below. The highest percentage of Mets pitches this postseason was in this range.
We saw it in the NLCS. The Mets did throw their 95+ MPH fastballs, but they also mixed in their offspeed and breaking pitches early. The Mets pitching isn’t great just because of their fastballs. They’re great because they pitch great.
During the regular season, the Mets ranked second in WHIP with a 1.18 mark. They ranked fourth with a 3.49 K/BB ratio. They ranked fourth with a 3.43 ERA. They allowed the second least amount of walks, and they were sixth with a .243 batting average against. All said and done, if you want to beat the Mets pitching, you have to beat them. They’re not going to walk you, and they’re not giving up many hits.
This either lines up perfectly for the Royals or it’ll be a complete disaster. The Royals were second to last in walks. They struck out the least amount of times. They were third in team batting average. They were 24th (last in the AL) in homers, but they were 11th in slugging.
Overall, the Royals put a lot of balls in play against a staff that doesn’t allow a lot of hits. At times like this, I’m reminded of the adage of good pitching beats good hitting. It’s worked for the Mets so far this postseason.
When Steven Matz was first called up it was a phenomenon. He won his first start going 7.2 innings allowing five hits, two earned, three walks, and six strikeouts. He went 3-3 at the plate with a double and four RBIs. The start was so good his grandfather also became a legend:
His second start was equally as impressive. He won that game too going 6.0 innings allowing two hits, none earned, two walks, and eight strikeouts. After that game, he was diagnosed with a torn lat and shut down for three weeks.
He did come back from the lat year making four September starts. In those games, he averaged 5.1 innings with a 2.86 ERA and a 1.455 WHIP. These were not poor numbers, but they certainly weren’t the Matz we all saw in July. He then injured his back. After a good Instructional League start, he was put on the NLDS roster and named the Game 4 starter.
Predictably, his numbers again dipped after a long layoff. He lost what could’ve been the clincher. He threw 85 pitches over five innings allowing six hits, three earned, two walks, and four strikeouts. He was lined up for the clincher in the NLCS. He went 4.2 innings allowing four hits, one earned, two walks, and four strikeouts. Bartolo Colon had to come in and get him out of the jam.
In the postseason, Matz is 0-1 with a 3.72 ERA and a 1.448 WHIP. He’s only averaging 5.0 innings. I’ve heard he’s pitched well considering the layoffs. I’ve heard the Mets didn’t catch a popup in the fifth inning in Chicago. You know what these are? Excuses. It covers up the fact that he hasn’t been that good. If the other three starters weren’t as dominant, he would be killing the bullpen.
So who should start in his place? I would argue Colon, which is not something I ever thought I would say. He’s made four appearances. In the first, he induced a double play grounder, but we know what happened next. Since then, he’s pitched 5.1 innings allowing three hits, one earned, one walk, and six strikeouts. In these postseason, he has a 3.38 ERA and a 0.750 WHIP.
I say this even though Colon has been good in the pen and was tattooed by the Blue Jays earlier this year. However, that game was Toronto. I’m hoping the colder weather and a friendlier ballpark would help him in the World Series.
I still think Matz could stay on the roster. It may be helpful to have another lefty in the pen. Additionally, he’s been fine in the beginning of games. Let him come in and air it out; put him in a position to succeed.
I do not think the Mets will make a change. I can understand why. I can still see Matz turning it around. I hope he does because the Mets are going to face a much tougher opponent in the World Series. He’s going to have to return to July form.
He better because the Mets will need him.
The Mets came out tonight and made sure they were going to quash any notion they were going to blow a 3-0 series lead. The opening salvo came off the bat of Lucas Duda:
Travis d’Arnaud finished the inning off by going back-to-back, apple-to-apple:
The Mets batted around in the first and had a 4-0 lead. This series, nay postseason, has belonged to NLCS MVP Daniel Murphy, but tonight belonged to Duda. Duda came alive in this game. In addition to the three run homer, he would hit a two run RBI double in the second. It would be a record tying hit:
Mets with 5 RBI in postseason game
Rusty Staub(1973)
Edgardo Alfonzo (1999)
Carlos Delgado (2006)
Curtis Granderson (2015)
Lucas Duda (2015)— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) October 22, 2015
It was all the Mets pitchers need. Steven Matz no-hit the Cubs through three. However, he allowed a run in the fourth, and he got in trouble in the fifth prompting Terry Collins to replace him with two outs in the inning. Bartolo Colon came in and struck out Kris Bryant with runners on first and second.
Colon would pitch a clean sixth before being lifted for Addison Reed. Because Matz couldn’t get out of the fifth, Colon earned the win. It’s strange that the 42 year old Colin would get the pennant clinching win on a team with all of this dominant young pitching. The answer to the trivia question is Jeurys Familia struck out Dexter Fowler.
As for Murphy? He had an off night only going 3-4 with a double and a run scored in the first seven innings. In the eighth with his streak on the line he did this:
HISTORY FOR MURPHY! Daniel Murphy sets MLB record with his 6 straight postseason game with a HR. pic.twitter.com/pIniutM4da
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) October 22, 2015
Overall, the Cubs had some fight in them, but it wasn’t enough. They lost 8-3 tonight. The only damage inflicted was Yoenis Cespedes leaving the game early with a sore shoulder. Hopefully, it’s not series because he’ll be needed in the WORLD SERIES!
The Mets swept the Cubs. The Cuba never had a lead in the series. It is the first time the Mets have ever swept a best of seven series. I can’t believe I’m writing this, but the Mets are going to the World Series! There’s no way to describe this amazing feeling. There may be only one way to describe this:
Nothing can make a team look bad like great pitching. Nothing can take a red hot team to their knees like great pitching. As anticipated, the Mets have had great pitching. Here’s how the Mets starters have performed:
Matt Harvey 7.2 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 9 K
Noah Syndergaard 5.2 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 9 K
Jacob deGrom 7.0 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 7 K
It’s the reason why the Cubs have been shut down thus far. This is the same Cubs team that scored 20 runs in a 3-1 win over the Cardinals in the Division Series. The Cubs entered the playoffs winning eight in a row before taking out the Pirates in the Wild Card Game.
The Cubs back are against the wall, and they get a slight break tonight with Steven Matz. We’re going to see what the Cubs are made of tonight. I expect them to bring their best.
I still expect the Mets to win.
As I pointed out earlier, the regular season numbers should be discounted coming into the playoffs. The Mets lineup is completely different. The pitching staff appears to be as well. Here is who pitched against the Cubs, and how they fared (* not on the postseason roster):
May 11, 2015 – Wrigley Field
Jacob deGrom L, 5.0 IP, 5 H, 4 ER, 4 BB, 5 K
Hansel Robles 1.1 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 2 K
Sean Gilmartin* 0.1 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 0 K
Buddy Carlyle* 0.1 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 0 K
Erik Goeddel 1.0 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K
May 12, 2015 – Wrigley Field
Noah Syndergaard (first career start) L, 5.1 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 4 BB, 6 K
Alex Torres* 0.2 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 2 K
Sean Gilmartin* 1.0 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 1 K
Hansel Robles 1.0 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 0 K
May 13, 2015 – Wrigley Field
Matt Harvey 7.0 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 9 K
Carlos Torres* BS, L, 1.0 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 0 K
Jeurys Familia 0.1 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 1 K
May 14, 2015 – Wrigley Field
Jon Niese L, 6.1 IP, 6 H, 6 R, 4 ER, 1 BB, 2 K
Hansel Robles 0.2 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 0 K
Jack Leathersich* 0.0 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 0 K
Erik Goeddel 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K
June 30, 2015 – Citi Field
Jon Niese L, 7.0 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 4 BB, 5 K
Bobby Parnell* 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 1 K
Sean Gilmartin* 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K
July 1, 2015 – Citi Field
Bartolo Colon 7.0 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 8 K
Bobby Parnell* 1.0 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 0 K
Jeurys Familia 1.0 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 1 K
Hansel Robles 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 0 K
Carlos Torres* L, 0.2 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 0 K
Sean Gilmartin* 0.1 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 0 K
July 2, 2015 – Citi Field
Jacob deGrom L, 5.1 IP, 7 H, 4 R, 3 ER, 2 BB, 2 K
Logan Verrett* 2.2 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 3 K
Alex Torres* 1.0 IP, 1 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 0 K
The Cubs beat the Mets seven times. Of those losses, two were by Jacob deGrom, two were by Niese, two were by Carlos Torres, and one was by Thor. Only deGrom and Thor remain in the rotation.
So to sum up, the Dodgers did do well against deGrom. Conversely, deGrom has reached another gear in the playoffs. The Cubs couldn’t hit Harvey. They never faced Steven Matz. They faced Thor in his first career start. Thor has gotten much better since that game:
#HammerTime. https://t.co/rUXBZyXYbA
— MLB (@MLB) October 16, 2015
Also, the Mets bullpen is significantly different. It’s important to note considering that Torres blew two games. They now have Addison Reed and Tyler Clippard.
While we know the Mets are a different team than, the Cubs are very similar. The only real change is Kyle Schwarber, who is just mashing the ball. However, I doubt he is enough to overcome the Mets pitching upgrades.
The Mets are vastly improved. I think it’s enough.
I grew up a Mets fan on Long Island. My brother and I would play in the backyard pretending to play for the Mets. We’d hit the game winning homerun in the bottom of the ninth with two outs in a 3-2 count. We’d strike out the best hitters in the game to win the World Series. Tonight, fellow Long Islander, Steven Matz, gets to actually live that dream tonight.
I’m not afraid to admit I’m jealous. He’s getting the chance we all wanted growing up. Unlike you and I, he’s left-handed and throws a mid to high nineties fastball. He’s also shown he’s a major league pitcher.
In his major league debut, he pitched 7.2 innings allowing five hits, two earned, three walks, and six strikeouts. He also went 3-3 with a double and four RBIs. Against these same Dodgers, Matz pitched 6.0 innings allowing two hits, two walks, and eight strikeouts. He got to stick it to the Yankees (as every Mets fan has wanted to do) by pitching 6.0 innings allowing seven hits, one earned, one walk, and four strikeouts.
For the season, he’s 4-0 with a 2.27 ERA, 1.234 WHIP, and a 8.6 K/9 in six starts. By the way, these are the numbers of the Mets fourth starter. He fought through injuries. He’s earned this start. He can pitch the Mets into the NLDS. He’s living every Mets fans dream. I’m jealous, but I’m glad he’s on the mound.
Lets Go Matz!
You never know what is going to happen before or during a postseason series. How a team responds to it may determine if a team wins or loses a series.
I was reminded of that with another playoff series against the Dodgers. Both times the Mets played the Dodgers, one of their starting pitchers was injured.
In 1988, Bobby Ojeda suffered a potentially career ending injury on the same day the Mets clinched at least a tie atop the NL East. It threw the Mets postseason rotation off kilter. Dwight Gooden started Games 1 and 4 (on three day’s rest). He wouldn’t make another start in the series.
I still don’t know what Davey Johnson was thinking. The Mets had a 2-1 series lead. They already won a game in which Orel Hershiser started. Johnson unnecessarily went to Gooden on three days rest, and then he left him in too long. Even more baffling is the fact that Johnson went to Sid Fernandez in Game 5 with the series tied 2-2.
Honestly, I don’t think Johnson doesn’t make a ponderous decision like this if Ojeda was able to pitch. Ojeda was 2-0 in the 1986 postseason. He stabilized things in Game 3, and he gave the Mets a chance in Game 6. Johnson doesn’t skip his start in 1988, and the Mets probably don’t blow that series.
Eighteen years later, the Mets again found themselves facing the Dodgers in the playoffs. Again, a key starting pitcher went down. Two days before the NLDS, El Duque, the scheduled Game 1 starter, went down with a torn calf muscle. Keep in mind, he was the second choice after Pedro Martinez suffered a rotator cuff injury.
Willie Randolph gave the ball to John Maine. Maine lasted 4.1 innings before hitting trouble. Randolph quickly turned to his incredible bullpen who brought it home. The Mets responded better to the problem in 2006, and they won the series.
It’s possible the Mets have already been presented with their Ojeda-El Duque dilemma with Steven Matz. Matz slept on a sofa, and he injured his back. The Mets now have a critical decision to make, especially with Matz having a successful simulated game. If he responds well, he may be on the roster. If not, it will be Sean Gilmartin.
Whomever the Mets choose, history shows it’s not who you pick that’s important. It’s how you respond to the crisis that’s important. Fortunately, this is one of Terry Collins’ strengths. Hopefully, there won’t be any more surprises.
Lets Go Mets!
Neither the Dodgers nor the Mets have officially announced a Game 4 starter. For the Mets part, it seems like they are waiting on Steven Matz. I’m not sure what the Dodgers reasons are for waiting.
Overall, both teams are but on their starting pitching. For the Dodgers, it’s Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke. For the Mets, it’s their stud muffins. With the way the NLDS schedule is set up, the Game 1 starter can pitch Game 4 on three days rest, and the Game 2 starter can pitch Game 5 on normal rest.
With that schedule, I have to believe the Dodgers will start Kershaw on three days rest in Game Four whether the Dodgers are up 2-1 or down 1-2. On the Mets side, I think Jacob deGrom is the only pitcher they would consider pitching on three day’s rest, and I’m still not sure they will do it. I think Terry Collins and deGrom are lobbying behind the scenes to make it happen.
However, Matz pitched well in a simulated game today. If his back responds well, we will be on the postseason roster. If that is the case, I believe the Mets will start him in Game 4, no matter what. Only time will tell if this is the right decision.
Overall, the TBA I’m mostly interested in is who will win this series. The Game 4 starter will probably have a lot to say about that.
The Mets seem close to setting the NLDS roster (my projections were on point), but there is still one major decision left. The Mets need to decide if they want to put Steven Matz or Sean Gilmartin on the roster. It’s a major decision.
In essence, the Mets are deciding between the pitcher they want to start Game Four and the last man in the bullpen. In reality, they hope that Matz doesn’t have to pitch (sweep), but they really don’t want Gilmartin pitching (starter knocked out early). Gilmartin flew to LA, and Matz flew to Florida. If Matz has a successful bullpen, he will be added to the roster. If not, it’s Gilmartin’s job.
Personally, I would go with Gilmartin regardless. Matz has proven to be injury prone, and his back injury had lingered. If he sleeps on it wrong again, he’s out until the World Series. There are other more practical reasons why I would prefer Gilmartin.
First, if the Mets are down 2-1 in the series, I want to see Jacob deGrom on short rest, as was previously suggested by Kevin Kernan of the New York Post, over the Mets other options whether that pitcher be Matz or Bartolo Colon. If I’m going down, I’m going down with my best. This year it was deGrom. Noah Syndergaard can then start Game Five on normal rest.
Second, the Mets are carrying Colon and Jon Niese on the roster. That’s two starters in the bullpen. If your best shot of winning this series is going with the stud muffins, then Matz serves no purpose on the team. He’s had zero bullpen experience. With that said, if the Mets feel an extra reliever is needed, they should carry the guy who is actually a reliever. Gilmartin has been used in a myriad of ways. He’s the more valuable bullpen piece, even with the reverse splits.
Finally, Matz hasn’t pitched since September 24th, which will be 19 days between appearances. He’s going to be rusty. You don’t want a rusty pitcher pitching in a do-or-die game. Matz may be the Mets 4th best starter when healthy, but he hasn’t been. I think he can shake off the rust, but it’s only a guess. If you’re guessing at this time of the year, you’re tealky just gambling. You don’t gamble with Game Four.
I’d send Matz to Florida to join the taxi squad. If the Mets advance, you’ll have a much better idea if he’s capable of starting a game. If he is, put him on the NLCS roster. If he’s not, you can stick with Gilmartin, who is accustomed to sitting for stretches at a time.
I realize the Mets will go with Matz if they can. I just don’t think it’s the right time. I think his time is the NLCS. It’s Gilmartin’s time now.