Look, there are reasons why a team wouldn’t want either Daniel Murphy or Yoenis Cespedes. However, I can’t believe the #3 and #4 hitters for an NL Pennant winner have no market right now.
At different points this year both of the players showed their value. They showed how they can carry a team for almost one month at a time. Cespedes carried the Mets in August. Murphy carried the Mets in October. They were clutch. They were essential members of their teams. They both seem to have no suitors on the free agent market.
As for Murphy, the Mets went out to the trade market to get Neil Walker rather than sign Murphy to a deal. The Nationals have seemingly done the same by seeking to acquire Brandon Phillips. The Nationals are going this route despite needing a quality left handed bat. As for other teams, it’s pure conjecture on who would be interested.
That’s the same situation for Cespedes. The only thing we know about his market is his last two teams are out on him. The Mets aren’t interested in re-signing the CF who helped them go to the playoffs. The Tigers apparently don’t want their Gold Glove LF to return.
We know markets for these players should eventually develop, but I’m surprised it’s taking this long. If I were the Mets I would seek to move in quickly with shorter term deals to try to acquire these players. While I wouldn’t be thrilled with Cespedes in CF, I wouldn’t object to him signing a short term deal or a deal with an early opt out. As for Murphy, I still like the idea of bringing him back. I like the idea especially because of David Wright‘s back.
We’ll see what happens next. I know I’m even more intrigued because I didn’t see either player going unsigned for this long.
In looking to fill out their bench, the Mets have shown some interest in Ryan Raburn. As a right handed bat, you could do worse.
Last year was the best year of Raburn’s career. He set career highs in batting average, on base percentage, and slugging. It’s odd, but it’s not unusual for a player to have a career year at 34. It’s definitely strange that someone coming off a .301/.393/.543 season didn’t have his $3 million option picked up. It’s strange even if the team was a mid-market team like the Indians. It really makes you question what is happening there.
What’s happening was Raburn was limited to just 82 games. No, he wasn’t injured. It’s just that the Indians really limited him to playing against lefties. He had 176 plate appearances against lefties and only 25 against righties. It was a decision that makes sense. In his career, Raburn has hit .250/.297/.326 against righties and .264/.339/.487.
Looking at Raburn, two other players immediately come to mind. The first was Scott Hairston, who had some success in a similar role with the Mets. Where Hairston got into trouble was when a Mets team lacking depth had to play him more frequently than they would’ve liked. The other player was John Mayberry, Jr., who hit .164/.227/.318 in 59 games with the Mets. He was released in July.
Why was Hairston successful where Mayberry wasn’t? Who knows? They’re bench players. Bench players typically can’t be relied upon for yearly consistency. The main reason is you’re always relying on a small sample size.
Looking at his career numbers, we see Raburn hits lefties well, but nowhere near as well as he hit them last year. We see a player who is a poor pinch hitter with a triple slash line of .184/.309/.368 in 136 plate appearances (small sample size). We also see a player who is predominantly a corner OF. Here’s his games played by position over his 10 year career:
- 1B – 9 games
- 2B – 143 games
- 3B – 27 games
- LF – 261 games
- CF – 28 games
- RF – 171 games
- DH – 93 games
Last year, he only played left, right, and DH. He was predominantly a DH. It’s surprising because he’s been an average fielder. You know what he isn’t? A first baseman. You’re not a first baseman if you play 9 games there in 10 years. It doesn’t mean he can’t play there. It means we don’t know. If you remember with Mike a Piazza playing first is easier said than done.
Raburn would be an improvement over a player like Eric Campbell with his hitting against lefties. Campbell has hit .220/.318/.339 in 149 plate appearances. It should be noted, even if for argument’s sake, Campbell is a slightly better defender, a better bet at first base, and a much better pinch hitter. Campbell is a career .293/.426/.390 pinch hitter in 54 plate appearances.
So who would I rather have? Raburn. He’s the better player. However, if signing Raburn stands in the way of the Mets making a significant addition, then I’m alright with the Mets proceeding with Campbell on the bench. Overall, while Raburn is an improvement, he’s not so much of an improvement that he’s worth losing out on another player.
I’m not so much interested in Raburn as much as I’m interested as in what a Raburn signing would mean for the Mets.
The prevailing thought is the Mets have been active this offseason making shrewd moves. Speaking of moves, are you able to name the first major league players acquired by the Mets under the Sandy Alderson regime? Good luck!
It’s been an incredible year. The Mets played in the World Series. There was a Rocky sequel. Starting tonight, there’s going to be a Star Wars sequel. My son really is a good luck charm.
Speaking of which, I was reminded of the first real time in my life when the Mets and Star Wars intersected. It was this Halloween when the Mets played a World Series game and my son went as Yoda for Halloween:
Today, I thought it would be fun to compare current Mets to Star Wars characters:
Noah Syndergaard – Luke Skywalker
- Both were raw until there were leaders who showed him how to harness that potential. Both eventually became leaders themselves helping bring everyone to the promised land. Also, let’s face it, both can get a little cocky.
Matt Harvey – Han Solo
- Mets fans still question if he’s truly on their side, but when the chips are down he comes through.
Bartolo Colon – Jabba the Hut
- Both are large and in charge
Curtis Granderson – Lando Calrissian
- I know what you’re thinking. It’s lazy to compare the Mets lone black player to one of the few black Star Wars characters. However, consider that Lando initially aided the Evil Empire only to later join the good guys and blow up the second Death Star. If that’s not Granderson leaving the Yankees to join the Mets to have an incredible postseason, I don’t know what is.
Jenrry Mejia – Jar Jar Binks
- They’re supposed to be on your side, but all they do is just ruin everything. You just want them to go away before they do something else stupid.
David Wright – C3PO
- Both have been there through everything. Both seemingly fall apart a little too often. Both have helped in more ways than you can count.
Terry Collins – Obi Wan Kenobi
- Both were exiled. Both were called upon to mentor and protect young prospects. Both found redemption in this role.
Lucas Duda – Wedge Antilles
- Both survived battles no one expected them to survive. For Duda, it was first base. For Wedge, it was blowing up the Death Star. Both have seen their roles and contributions to their causes being overlooked and disregarded even if both were vital to the cause.
Jacob deGrom – Princess Leia
- Both are rocking the long locks. Both had their abilities overlooked for another. Both were instrumental in all that was accomplished. I just don’t want to see deGrom in the golden bikini.
Jeurys Familia – Mace Windu
- Mace Windu constantly appeared in dangerous situations in order to save everyone, much like Familia did this year. Both were successful against all odds until their last chapter. Also, when you’re played by Samuel L. Jackson, you’re just awesome. Familia is awesome.
Wally Backman – Uncle Owen
- Both are entrusted with the future, but both ultimately will not be the ones that bring everyone to the next level.
Wilmer Flores – R2D2
- Overall, there’s no getting rid of either. They’re indestructible. They’re in the center of everything. They’re also fan favorites.
Kirk Nieuwenhuis – Chewbacca
As I think of more, I’ll add to the list or amend the existing list. I didn’t add a Yoda because as you see above, you’re not doing better than that Yoda. If you have a suggestion, I’ll be happy to add it to the list giving you full credit. For example, here’s Jason Fry’s point-of-view:
https://twitter.com/jasoncfry/status/677612060092596224
Yes, this is the same Jason Fry who wrote The Weapon of a Jedi, which is available for sale now.
By the way, don’t be that guy. Keep the spoilers to yourself. Don’t ruin the movie for everyone.
While reading up on my nightmare scenario of Daniel Murphy signing with the Nationals, I noticed something interesting. Look at this blurb from MLB Trade Rumors:
At the time of this writing [December 16, 2015], it’s not exactly clear who the leading teams are for the infielder, who turns 31 in April. The incumbent Mets apparently haven’t ruled out a reunion with Murphy, though they would like to sign him to a one- or two-year deal.
(Emphasis added, internal links omitted)
It’s a fascinating scenario. By reintroducing Murphy to the mix, you’re creating even more infield depth and even more versatility. With Neil Walker‘s platoon splits, Murphy can effectively platoon there. When David Wright needs to rest his back, Murphy can play there. Murphy can also play some first base allowing Lucas Duda to sit occasionally against the really nasty lefties.
Sure, you could argue he’s usurping Wilmer Flores‘ role. However, Murphy is a much better player. You’d rather have Murphy playing over Flores. Furthermore, that frees up Flores to focus on SS and possibly work on learning the OF to give Curtis Granderson and Michael Conforto the occasional day off, especially against lefties.
The move makes sense except for the following reasons:
- You’re asking Murphy to accept a reduced role and contract;
- You’re expecting Walker to accept a reduced role in a contract year; and
- You’re expecting Flores to be an effective MI and corner OF.
Unfortunately, it seems like the rumor was outdated. It was before the Mets obtained Walker. It seems unlikely Murphy will return to the Mets. I got excited for a minute until I realized it wasn’t realistic. Upon further review, it wasn’t.
However, it would’ve been interesting.
There are many out there calling the Mets offseason a success so far. Personally, I don’t see it. Yes, I know the offseason isn’t over, but we’re also pretty sure the Mets aren’t replacing Yoenis Cespedes‘ bat.
Overall, the Mets as constituted now are not better than the team that lost the World Series. Here was the lineup for the team that just lost the World Series, with their respective WAR from the 2015 season:
- Curtis Granderson 5.1
- David Wright 0.5
- Daniel Murphy 1.4
- Yoenis Cespedes 6.3
- Lucas Duda 3.0
- Travis d’Arnaud 1.7
- Michael Conforto 2.1
- Wilmer Flores 0.8
Combined 20.9
If the Mets make no other additions this offseason, which still remains a possibility, here’s the Mets 2016 starting lineup with the player’s WAR from last year.
- Curtis Granderson 5.1
- Neil Walker 2.4
- David Wright 0.5
- Lucas Duda 3.0
- Asdrubal Cabrera 1.7
- Michael Conforto 2.1
- Travis d’Arnaud 1.7
- Juan Lagares 0.6
Combined 17.1
On paper, barring any further additions the 2016 starting lineup is worse than the 2015 World Series team. This is despite how more “athletic” the Mets are in the middle infield. In response, the argument is the Mets are now deeper. Are they? Let’s compare the 2015 and 2016 benches.
Before comparing, it should be noted I’m going to use a traditional 13 position players and 12 pitchers split. That means I will have to eliminate once bench player from the 2015 Mets. I’m choosing to remove Kirk Nieuwenhuis from the roster as he was called up in September.
I’m also dropping Juan Uribe from the 2015 roster. When building a team, you’re going to want a backup shortstop. Uribe doesn’t fit the bill. Since Ruben Tejada was injured, and thus unavailable, I’m replacing him with Matt Reynolds, whom I’m assigning a 0.0 WAR since he didn’t play at all last year.
Here’s the modified 2015 World Series bench:
- Kevin Plawecki 0.9
- Matt Reynolds 0.0
- Michael Cuddyer 0.5
- Kelly Johnson 0.3
- Juan Lagares 0.6
Combined 2.3
Here’s the current bench, which would be subject to change with a free agent signing:
- Kevin Plawecki 0.9
- Wilmer Flores 0.8
- Ruben Tejada -0.1
- Kirk Nieuwenhuis 0.7
- Eric Campbell -0.5
Combined 1.8
Now to be fair, the 2016 bench will mostly likely not have Eric Campbell on the Opening Day roster. Eliminating his -0.5 would balance out these benches.
Here’s one big problem, if not Campbell then who? Let’s assume Mets fans get their way, and the team signs Denard Span. Span had a 0.7 WAR last year. Yes, that’s the same as Kirk’s. Slotting Span into the everyday lineup has this effect:
- Starting Lineup WAR increased from 17.1 to 17.2
- Bench WAR decreased from 1.8 to 1.7
- Eric Campbell or Kirk Nieuwenhuis is still on the Opening Day roster
Now, first counter-argument will be the offseason isn’t over, so the Mets can still make additional moves. Currently, without any other moves, the Mets payroll stands around $105.7 million. Let’s assume for arguments sake, the Mets have around $10 million to spend. With that $10 million, the Mets are looking to add a reliever, a CF, and another bat.
Span is estimated to receive about $12 million a year. Well, that blows the whole budget. Even assuming the Mets could get Span for less, they’re not going to have enough money for a reliever and another bat after that. So again, chances are either Campbell or Kirk will be in the Opening Day roster.
The next counter-argument is last year’s WAR doesn’t account for full years from Wright, d’Arnaud, or Conforto. This point-of-view is acceptable. However, you also have to acknowledge Granderson may be due for a regression at 35 years of age with a repaired torn ligament in this thumb. Also, based upon their histories, you can’t rely on Wright or d’Arnaud to last a full season. Essentially, while you can expect some players to improve or play more often, you can expect others to regress and/or suffer injuries.
Overall, the Mets still might be able to win the NL East and return to the playoffs in 2016. They will do so because of their pitching. However, objectively speaking, you have to admit the 2016 Mets are and will be weaker than the 2015 Mets team that lost the World Series.
That is unacceptable.
Today, Michael Mayer broke yet another big Mets story. This time it was the Mets re-signing Bartolo Colon to a one year $7.25 million contract. Most Mets fans rejoiced. Personally, I don’t get the love affair.
When I look at Colon’s Mets career, I see an ERA+ of 86, which means he was below average. He had a 4.13 ERA while pitching half his games in a pitcher’s park. The best argument you could make for his Mets career is: (1) he had an average FIP of 3.77; and (2) he didn’t miss a start. Why is it a player who’s average at best a folk hero? It has to be more than this play:
Maybe it’s because of at bats like this, but I can’t imagine why:
Fact is, he’s not even that good. He’s not going to be any younger. Next year, he’s going to be 43 years old. Why would you want him over Jon Niese? Niese was at minimum just as good as Colon. More likely he was better and will be better next year at 29. He also showed himself more capable in the bullpen that Colon. Throw in the two extra years of control Niese has, and you’ve downgraded your rotation and possibly your bullpen.
Fair or not, I’ll remember Colon’s failings in the World Series. In Game 1, he walked a tightrope walk for two innings before imploding in his third inning of work earning the loss in a very frustrating game. In Game 5, he entered the game to clean up Addison Reed‘s mess. The Mets were down 4-2, and the bases were loaded with one out. Colon would allow a bases clearing double to the first batter he faced putting the game and World Series out of reach.
I don’t blame Colon for all that happened in the World Series. He may not have been put in the best position to succeed. Fact is, he didn’t succeed. I don’t hold it against him. However, I do look at it and ask why is this 43 year old pitched so revered? If the same thing happened to Niese, the fans would’ve ran him out of town. Colon? It’s like it never happened. I just don’t get it.
Someone please explain it to me.
I’d like to think of myself as a smart and logical person. However, I’m no different than anyone else. Sometimes however, two separate and distinct events become so intertwined that you begin to believe there’s a cause and effect relationship.
That’s the Mets Santa Claus Curse. We’re lead to believe that something bad will happen to the Met player who plays Santa at the Holiday Christmas Party. Thanks to Jared Diamond, we have the list:
https://twitter.com/jareddiamond/status/676775981588287488
This year it was Steven Matz. The same Matz who had two injuries last season. He’s had Tommy John surgery already in his young career. It’s like the Mets are tempting fate here. The Mets chances hinge on their young rotation. How could the Mets risk their chances by having Matz play Santa?
Part of me thinks this curse idea is silly. Another part of me is nervous. However, both sides of me agree Steven Matz shouldn’t have been playing Santa Claus.
The main reason is you could literally get anyone to play Santa. I see it with my son. Santa is a rockstar. A kid doesn’t care if Santa is played by Matz or Eric Campbell. They just care that it’s Santa. However, they missed an opportunity to meet Matz. It’s a shame because Matz has quickly become one of the more popular Mets in a very short time.
I would’ve liked to see a less popular player or one of the Mets front office staff play Santa. This way a kid could’ve met both Santa and Matz. And, oh yeah, there’s that whole other reason why Matz shouldn’t have been Santa too.
Hopefully, the Mets will let Matz introduce himself to the kids next year. Hopefully, Matz will be able to introduce himself to the entire National League next year. Hopefully, he will be as dominant as we all believe he can be.
That would be the best Christmas gift of all.
In all the years I played baseball, I wore the number 15. Initially, it was a number assigned to me in Little League. When you’re a bigger kid, you get the higher double digit numbers. Anyway, I had what was then the best season I ever had. It all clicked that year.
In any event, the number took on some added significance as it was my dad’s line number in the Army. Yes, I wore 15 because it became my lucky number. However, it’s significance was never lost on me. It was my father who taught me how to throw a ball. It was his idea I should be a catcher. He was also a great hitting coach.
I was reminded of all of this when I saw Neil Walker is going to wear the number 20 in honor of his father. He made this announcement at the Mets Holiday Party. It was at a Holiday Party he had no obligation to attend. Instead of bemoaning how the Pirates treated him, he has come to New York excited and ready to help the Mets win the World Series.
He’s doing this wearing his father’s number. The man who taught him to throw and hit. This is at the core of what is the heart and soul of baseball. Fathers and sons. It’s terrific Walker looked at coming to the Mets as an opportunity to wear his father’s number as opposed to him leaving his hometown.
I think I’m going to like Neil Walker.
Yesterday was an extraordinary day. Putting your political leanings aside, two Cuban-American U.S. Senators, Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio, took the stage to participate in the GOP Primary Debate. To get to this point, their ancestors had to flee an oppressive Communist government to find a better life for themselves and future generations. Sens. Cruz & Rubio are the embodiment of those hopes and dreams.
Yesterday also marked the day that Cuban born baseball players had the opportunity to return home and see their families for the first time in years. Jose Abreu, Brayan Pena, Alexei Ramirez, and Yasiel Puig got that opportunity because they returned to Cuba as part of MLB’s trip to promote the game. The Cubsn defectors left to seek a better life leaving behind parents, siblings, spouses, and yes, even children. Abreu has been away from his son for two and a half years.
Essentially, Abreu left when his son was a little older than my son is now. I have trouble leaving him in the morning when I go to work. I can’t imagine leaving him knowing that I was most likely leaving him forever. I can’t imagine a situation so dire that I could actually entertain the idea let alone follow through with it.
More so, I can’t imagine how MLB didn’t bring along all current and former Cubsn born players. I don’t know how many of them were given the opportunity. I don’t know how many declined. I think of the former Mets who did not go or get a chance to go. Yoenis Cespedes still has a son in Cuba, but he is staying in the U.S. Whatever the reason, he might’ve missed the last chance he’ll ever get to see his son again. That thought is just incredibly depressing.
MLB is making this trip in part to determine the future of Cuban baseball, and what, if any, role MLB will have in said future. MLB makes this trip while Jose Fernandez seeks the opportunity to play in the U.S. after defecting from Cuba. He defected after being banned from playing for a year because they knew he wanted to defect. It’s an odd situation to say the least.
We also don’t know what opportunities Cuban baseball players will have in the future. We don’t know if these defectors like Cespedes will be able to return to see their families. We don’t know if players like Cespedes missed the chance of a lifetime. On a lesser note, we don’t know if these players will be permitted to play for Cuba in the WBC.
While MLB should be commended for creating this opportunity for the Cuban born players, it should be noted there’s more to do. They need to negotiate a posting system like there is with the Japanese Leagues. This may prevent the harrowing tales we hear from players after their defection. They should be setting up a way for their current a former players the right to see their families. Every year, MLB sends a contingent of players to Japan to play in an exhibition series.
You may not think MLB has that power. I respectfully disagree. This is the league that had a home and home between the Cuban National team and the Baltimore Orioles. This was before President Obama made any steps to formalize relations. Imagine what MLB could do now. It’s their duty and responsibility to help their players and their families.
In any event, I’m happy these families were reunited. I’m hopeful for better treatment of Cuban players and their families. Something has got to change. MLB could choose to be on the forefront of this change, or they could sit around and wait for someone else to do it.
With that said, I’m going to come home tonight and tuck my son into bed tonight. No government can stop me from doing that. We live in a place where I don’t have to make that choice. We live in a country where the children of immigrants could possibly one day become the President.
For players like Jose Abreu, he only got December 14, 2015 to do that. We still don’t know if that’s the last time he ever sees his son. Here’s hoping MLB steps up and helps change that.