By any measure, the Mets had a pleasantly surprising run this year capturing the 2015 National League pennant. The 2015 Mets weren’t perfect. They had some holes to fill. On top of that, new holes were created by free agency. Can the Mets fill in those holes?
The answer to that question begins with another question – do the Mets actually have money to spend? There are reports out there that suggest they don’t despite the additional postseason revenue. There are various reasons why. However, as a Mets fan, all you care about is what can they spend. The answer may not be what you want to hear:
Alderson pegged this year's opening day payroll at $103M and said 2016's should be "somewhat" higher, with room to add at trade deadline.
— Mike Puma (@NYPost_Mets) November 4, 2015
Now, the Mets 2015 payroll was $120.4 million. However, a significant portion of that was covered by insurance due to David Wright‘s back injury. By my estimation, the Mets saved about $10 million. If we back that out, it means the Mets paid roughly $110.4 million in salary. Given Sandy Alderson’s statements that the Mets payroll will increase from the 2015 Opening Day payroll of $103 million, we should see the 2016 Opening Day payroll to be around the $110 million it was at the end of last year.
Right now, the Mets payroll obligations are estimated to be at $92 million for 25 players. Note, not all of these players will be on the Opening Day payroll due to various reasons from trades to the fact that the list has eight relievers on it. However, if the Mets keep all of these players, they’re paying them regardless if they’re playing in New York or Las Vegas.
In any event, that means the Mets have roughly $18 million to build the major league roster. That may be a problem because the Mets have question marks at 2B, SS, and/or CF. They also need a versatile player that is competent enough at third to play there semi-regularly. Effectively, this puts an end to my relatively modest Daniel Murphy–Dexter Fowler–Kelly Johnson plan.
That’s problematic because all three were expected to get somewhat reasonable deals Murphy and Fowler were only pegged to get four year deals. It’s not like the plan was Jayson Hayward and Zack Greinke. The plan was Murphy and Fowler. It’s absurd and depressing when you think about it.
It’s even worse when you consider an elite young starting rotation is slated to be paid a combined $7.1 million or $3.9 million less than what they paid for Bartolo Colon last year. It’s worse when you consider there’s no need for a bullpen upgrade.
Honestly, after seeing that comment from Sandy Alderson, I felt deflated a bit. After a pennant, the Mets will not be able to address their issues. It means if their cheap young pitching keeps them in it again, they’ll have to grossly overpay again at the trading deadline.
I’m sorry, but this isn’t how a pennant winner responds to falling just short. This isn’t how a New York team should operate, especially in an uncapped sport. There is no reason the Opening a Day payroll can’t be at least $120 million, which by the way, would’ve ranked them 15th, middle of the pack, last year.
Now, I truly can’t get upset until I see what the Mets do this offseason. They very we may spend more than they’re alluding. The payroll may not significantly rise, but they could pull off some shrewd trades to offset that. With that said, I’m not too enthusiastic at the moment.
We were promised if attendance went up the Mets would spend. Attendance went way up. It’s time for the Mets to finally spend some money.
When Steve Cohen purchased the New York Mets, there was a ton of excitement from the fanbase. We were finally getting an owner who knew what it was like to be a Mets fan. We were getting an owner with the resources to do what was needed to win.
Well, the first year did not go nearly as planned. We saw the type of influence Cohen could have dining with Francisco Lindor and then giving him the largest contract in team history. In a bit of panache, he gave him one million more than the San Diego Padres had given Fernando Tatis Jr.
Still, much of 2021 was “same old Mets.” Jared Porter was fired for harassment. A Cohen directed investigation uncovered more leading to more firings. The replacement GM, Zack Scott was fired after being arrested for a DUI. They would trade a top prospect for Javier Báez. With apologies to Trevor Williams, the trade was a disaster.
This was a Mets team who set the record for most days in first place only to finish the season with an under .500 record. The hated Atlanta Braves overtook them en route to winning the World Series. The Mets players were booing fans from the field. This was all reminiscent of the Wilpon Era.
In the offseason, the Mets once again struck out in their president of baseball operations search leading them to settle on Billy Eppler as the GM. The collective bargaining agreement would actually implement a Cohen Tax designed to stop him from flexing his financial muscle.
Cohen would be undaunted, and in fact, he would prove to Mets fans and all of baseball this is definitively not the same old Mets.
Cohen opened up the wallet. In the offseason, he paid for the Mets to sign star players in Starling Marte and Max Scherzer. They were not just great, but they changed the culture of a team which fell apart the previous season. That was part of an offseason which also saw the Mets overhaul their lineup and approach at the plate.
Cohen wanted and made sure to land Buck Showalter. The organization wanted to change their offensive mindset and approach, and they were able to hire Eric Chavez away from the New York Yankees to do it. They also continued to grow their analytics department, and late in the season, they purchased one of the famed hitting machines which can replicate pitcher deliveries.
Cohen understood the best thing an owner can do for the fans is to put a winner on the field. He gave the organization all the resources they needed, and they built a 101 win team. However, Cohen was not done there.
Being a Mets fan himself, he loved and appreciated the Mets history. He brought back Old Timers’ Day and would retired Willie Mays‘ number because he believed it to be the right thing to do (making this a complete departure from the Wilpons). He would also retire beloved player and broadcaster Keith Hernandez‘s number.
In essence, Cohen has given Mets fans everything they’ve ever wanted. Fans wanted this team to matter and be a contender. They were. They wanted the team history to be recognized and celebrated. It was.
The best news yet is Cohen is far from done. Eppler has already talked about getting the resources needed to improve upon this season. The organization has talked about spending to bridge the gap to sustained winning much in the vein of the Los Angeles Dodgers.
No, the 2022 season did not end the way Mets fans had hoped. More important than that failure is the future. With Cohen, the future is bright, and we see how the focus is winning and making the Mets as fan friendly as possible. Seeing the totality of the season, Cohen did all he promised and more. That should leave all of us Mets fans excited to see what comes next.
Based on the reactions, you’d think we were all on the verge of Spring Training, and the New York Mets still didn’t have a president of baseball operations. Seriously, people are already moving towards the LOLMets takes.
The Mets have known for months that they would need someone at the head of baseball ops, and for at least six weeks or so that they would need a manager. Now it's the third week of October and they apparently still aren't close to filling those spots.
— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) October 18, 2021
For the Mets, it’s business as usual. On to plan M, that will be sold to fans as plan A. #waittosee https://t.co/N1UPArwiQn
— David P. Samson (@DavidPSamson) October 18, 2021
Believe it or not, it is only October 19. The Boston Red Sox lead 2-1 in the ALCS against the Houston Astros. The Atlanta Braves lead 2-0 in the NLCS against the Los Angeles Dodgers. There is still a lot of postseason baseball to be played.
That’s partially why the delay. Out of protocols, they needed the Milwaukee Brewers to lose the NLDS before asking about David Stearns. They were predictably denied.
In the time preceding the Tampa Bay Rays losing the ALDS, their organization promoted Erik Neander. That made him unavailable to be interviewed.
They had the perfunctory conversation with Theo Epstein, and it took time to work through the channels to speak with Billy Beane. As expected, both turned down the job.
So what?
Rather than accept defeat, the Mets organization at least took a shot. Suddenly, that’s supposed to be a bad thing. It’s inane.
If you’re an organization with the revenue and resources should be trying to get the absolute best people they can. It only makes sense to wait for those people to be available and to work through the process.
It’s not even the start of the postseason, and for various reasons, the Mets couldn’t get the purported top targets. While this has been happening, the Mets have been compiling a short list of people they want to interview for the job.
That’s the important aspect which needs highlighting. The Mets didn’t whiff on the top targets and give up. No, they were prepared for this and are working through the process.
Now, if they want people from the Los Angeles Dodgers organization, they have to wait. Regardless of the takes you’ll see, that’s the process, and teams need to do things the right way.
Fortunately, the Mets have Sandy Alderson to keep the offseason moving and to insure things proceed as needed until the new POBO is hired. Alderson’s presence does permit the Mets to not have to rush this process, which is a good thing.
That said, there’s much to do this offseason requiring someone in place sooner rather than later. Seeing how this is all unfolding, we can trust that will happen.
With the New York Mets in first place and there is earnest discussion over what the Mets should add at the trade deadline. With all the injuries, the discussion has centered on starting pitching.
Before delving into potential names, the first consideration should be the Mets only need four starters to get them through the postseason. With respect to that, they have a phenomenal foundation with
By ERA, that’s the best 1-2-3 in the majors. That’s especially impressive considering they are missing their second and third best pitchers in Carlos Carrasco and Noah Syndergaard.
Now, it’s a dangerous game waiting for injured players to return. That goes double for pitchers. For example, we’ve already seen Carrasco’s and Syndergaard’s return dates pushed back repeatedly.
However, on that note, Carrasco is throwing batting practice, and he’s throwing in the mid 90s. After another session, he may be set for a rehab assignment.
Carlos Carrasco threw BP to live batters from Citi Field this afternoon ? pic.twitter.com/YoW8MBqnra
— SNY Mets (@SNY_Mets) July 6, 2021
If Carrasco continues on this path, he will have at least one start in the majors prior to the trade deadline. If he’s back in the rotation by then, there’s no sense in adding another starter.
As we’ve seen, Tylor Megill has the stuff to at least be a five and fly starter. There’s also David Peterson and Corey Oswalt, who could be available soon after their IL stints. Again, we shouldn’t count on them, but they’re part of the equation. That’s nothing to say of Syndergaard who MAY return in September in some capacity.
In terms of the fifth starter spot, they have the numbers to address it. We should keep in mind whoever that starter is, it’s unlikely they’ll be on the postseason roster, at least not as a starter.
To that point, if the Mets are looking to add pitching at the trade deadline, perhaps they should be looking more at relievers. They’ve already seen an incredible number of injuries on that front, and Miguel Castro, who was supposed to be a key piece of the bullpen, has lost his effectiveness.
Of course, if Carrasco has yet another set-back, the Mets should pivot. Moreover, if the right deal presents itself, the Mets shouldn’t object to improving the roster. That said, the team has much bigger holes in the bullpen and at third base, and after what Brodie Van Wagenen did to the roster, they have somewhat limited resources to add at the trade deadline.
Taking everything into account, as of right now, the Mets focus shouldn’t be on adding a starter. It should be on building the best possible postseason roster.
When the initial reports regarding Mickey Callaway came to light, there was room to excuse Sandy Alderson. After all, there wasn’t much about Callaway that was under his purview.
Callaway wasn’t Alderson’s choice. He was hired by the Wilpons. It’s also notable Alderson was battling with cancer, and he was no longer with the organization when Callaway’s harassment was reported.
While Alderson was able to escape culpability and blame for Callaway, the recent report from Katie Strang and Brittany Ghiroli of The Athletic make it very clear Alderson was a very real part of the problem. In fact, Alderson helped build that culture.
Alderson hired harassers over complaints and warnings of female employees. He was aware of at least some of the harassment, perhaps all of it. He knew and was well connected with the head of Human Resources, Holly Lindvall, who tried to silence and terminate those who objected to harassment.
Remember, it was Lindvall who told Leigh Castergine to resign when she complained about Jeff Wilpon. We now know there were more complaints, and those complaints were similarly ignored.
There may have been a time we could give Alderson a charitable treatment regarding the harassment. After all, this was a veteran and Harvard educated man. He was self made.
Alderson seemed like a good guy. He certainly grew in stature while serving as a juxtaposition to Jeff Wilpon. In fact, Alderson was a direct contrast to Wilpon.
The problem is he wasn’t. Alderson may not have been the perpetrator of harassment, but he sure was an enabler. He also sees no wrong in what he did, and if his statements aren’t taken out of context, he may not have an issue with what was done.
It’s sad. Alderson spent the whole of his life building a reputation. His return to the Mets was supposed to be in glory and about unfinished business.
Instead, the same stink that attaches to everything the Wilpons touch attached to him, and he has no one to blame by himself. He could have and should have done something, and instead, he chose to allow it to happen time and again.
Due to his actions, he needs to be fired. No, he should not be allowed to resign on his own accord. Steve Cohen has to send a clear message he doesn’t condone what predated him. That requires firing his most prominent hire.
The 2021 season is going to be an interesting one. We are coming off of a pandemic shortened season, and Major League Baseball is once again messing with the baseball. That does make predictions all the more difficult. Despite that, here are the predicted division winners:
AL East – Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays have exciting young talent with more pitching than people realize. They are helped out by the fact the Tampa Bay Rays took a significant step back with their pitching, and the New York Yankees just have too many question marks in their rotation and now in their bullpen to claim the division title.
AL Central – Chicago White Sox
Even with Eloy Jimenez injured and out for most of the season, they still have terrific starting pitching, and they have a deep lineup. The guess here is Tony La Russa actually works out, but we also shouldn’t discount him imploding everything. That should be enough to hold off the Twins and the Indians who seemingly just get pitching out of nowhere every season.
AL West – Los Angeles Angels
With Shohei Ohtani ready to be unleashed as the true two way star he can be, the Angels are a much better team. Keep in mind, this team still has Mike Trout, and they’ll get a full season of Anthony Rendon. On top of that, it looks like they may actually have starting pitching. That may just be enough to hold off Matt Olson and Matt Chapman in Oakland as well as the Houston Astros who appear at the end of their run.
Wild Cards – New York Yankees and Oakland Athletics
MVP – Mike Trout
Cy Young – Lucas Giolito
NL East – New York Mets
As noted earlier, the Mets have the best team in the division. That includes their having the best pitcher in Jacob deGrom and the best shortstop in Francisco Lindor. They also have the money, resources, and willingness to outlast and outbuild the other teams in the division.
NL Central – St. Louis Cardinals
The Nolan Arenado acquisition was just that important, and really when we look at this past offseason, they seemed to be the only team trying. Well, them and the Milwaukee Brewers who took advantage of the weird offseason market to nab Jackie Bradley Jr. Other than those two, the other teams did little for anyone to take them seriously.
NL West – Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers won the division, and they went out and arguably improved their team by adding Trevor Bauer. They have a great manager in Dave Roberts, and they have the best player in the National League in Mookie Betts. No matter how much the Padres did this offseason, and it was significant, there is little reason to believe over the course of a 162 game season anyone could overtake them.
Wild Cards – San Diego Padres and Philadelphia Phillies
MVP – Mookie Betts
Cy Young – Jacob deGrom
Postseason
AL Wild Card – Yankees over Athletics
ALDS – White Sox over Yankees, Blue Jays over Angels
ALCS – White Sox over Blue Jays (MVP: Tim Anderson)
NL Wild Card – Padres over Phillies
NLDS – Dodgers over Padres, Mets over Cardinals
NLCS – Mets over Dodgers (MVP: Michael Conforto)
World Series – Mets over White Sox (MVP: Jacob deGrom)
The running joke with Jeff Wilpon was what Nelson Doubleday had to say about him as he was selling away his ownership interest. For those who forgot, Doubleday said, “Jeff Wilpon said he’s going to learn how to run a baseball team and take over at the end of the year. Run for the hills, boys. I think probably all those baseball people will bail.” (Bergen Record).
Well, the joke has officially stopped being funny.
Wilpon was worse than anyone could’ve imagined. Really, who would’ve thought forcing an injured Pedro Martinez to pitch against doctor and manager advice wasn’t the worst thing he’s done. Imagine firing Willie Randolph in the middle of the night after the first game of a West coast trip wasn’t the most embarrassing.
No, Jeff Wilpon has done far worse. He was nothing short of a monster who was enabled by his father, Bud Selig, and Rob Manfred.
Jeff Wilpon was alleged to have tied the ability of a pregnant woman to receive a bonus with her ability to get married. He was also alleged to have said, “I am as morally opposed to putting an e-cigarette sign in my ballpark as I am to Leigh having this baby without being married.”
When she complained to Human Resources, she was advised to quit. Those HR complaints eventually led to a firing and a lawsuit.
When Jose Reyes was cut by the Colorado Rockies after his assaulting his wife leading to his arrest and her going to the hospital, the Mets brought him back. Not just that, Reyes’ family was put on display as Reyes played in a game with the Brooklyn Cyclones as he got himself into game shape.
Even with Reyes performing poorly, he wasn’t cut. In fact, Reyes would get a raise when he hit free agency. In his final year, Reyes was nominated for the Marvin Miller Man of the Year award.
Jeff Wilpon could attempt to explain these away. He can’t explain away or defend what happened with Mickey Callaway. That one is directly on him, and it exhibits who he is as a human being.
As reported by Brittany Ghiroli and Katie Strang of The Athletic, at the time he was hired by the Mets, Callaway’s harassment of female reporters was “the worst kept secret in baseball.”
Now, this is the Wilpon run Mets, and they weren’t exactly known for their thoroughness or even competence. Really, you can believe the Mets had no idea about Callaway’s behavior as they rushed through the process of hiring him after one interview.
Once again, there are rumors the New York Mets are pursuing Trevor Bauer, and once again, there is a debate whether Bauer is worth it. While most of those debates focus on the personal, it rarely focuses on the budgetary.
Yes, we all know Steve Cohen has more money than the Wilpons, and he’s far more invested in winning. That said, even he has his limits, and he didn’t get this wealthy by just throwing money around like the Yankees when they see a Boston Red Sox player past their prime.
For the Mets, they have to best decide how to invest in players and the team. Looking at it from that perspective, you really have to wonder why the Mets would even bother contemplating signing Bauer.
MLB Trade Rumors projected Bauer could land a four year deal with a $32 million AAV. There have been claims Bauer could surpass Gerrit Cole‘s record $36 million AAV. Long story short it appears it’ll take approximately $30 million per year to sign Bauer.
Looking at the current Mets pitching staff, both Marcus Stroman and Noah Syndergaard will be free agents. That means the Mets will need to make a decision whether they want to re-sign one, both, or neither.
With Stroman and Syndergaard missing 2020 for differing reasons, Zack Wheeler is an interesting comp. Entering free agency, Wheeler had a strong season-and-a-half. From June 1, 2018 through 2019, he had a 3.26 FIP, and there was the expectation he would improve.
As a result, entering his age 30 season, he received a five year deal with a $23.6 million AAV. Syndergaard, 27, and Stroman, 29, ate slightly younger than Wheeler when he hit free agency. Syndergaard (3.25) has a better FIP than Wheeler over his last two years, and Stroman’s (3.79) is worse.
Given that and a number of other factors, we could well see Stroman and Syndergaard sign deals with an AAV comparable to Wheeler. For the sake of using round numbers, let’s say it’ll take $25 million per year to extend both Stroman and Syndergaard.
In 2020, because Stroman accepted the qualifying offer, he will make $18.9 million. Syndergaard and the Mets settled his final year of arbitration at $9.7 million.
That means, if the Mets were looking to give Stroman a deal with a $25 million AAV, he’d get a $6.1 million raise. For Syndergaard, that’s a $15.3 million raise. Combined, that’s $21.4 million.
Looking at it purely from a pitching perspective, the Mets could give Bauer $30 million, or they can use $21.6 million to keep Stroman and Syndergaard. That’s $8.4 million which can then be used for a Brad Hand or another area of need.
Keep in mind, that $30 million doesn’t have to be used for starting pitching. In addition to Stroman and Syndergaard, the Mets will see Michael Conforto, Francisco Lindor, Brandon Nimmo, Seth Lugo, and maybe even Jacob deGrom hit free agency over the next few years.
Taking all that into account, you really have to wonder why the Mets would be pursuing Bauer. In reality, it’s a gross misallocation of resources. For what the Mets could give Bauer, they could keep two better ones and have money left over to further invest in the team.
Maybe the Mets still want Bauer, and maybe, they even sign him. Whatever the case, the Mets really have to make sure he’s worth all that comes with him, and given the expiring contracts, all that will likely go.
In reality, it’s far better to keep Stroman and Syndergaard than to sign Bauer. Hopefully, that’s the path the Mets pursue.
When looking to sign a player, the first question is whether that player would improve the team. Clearly, Trevor Bauer clears that hurdle.
The next is whether that player is a worthwhile investment. That’s where it gets complicated for Bauer.
Bauer is noted to want to pitch every fourth day, and he purportedly is seeking $30+ million. Putting aside, the Mets logjam trying to extend players, the Mets have to justify making Bauer their highest paid player when he’s not that.
Putting aside 2020 for a moment, here’s how Bauer would stack against a fully healthy Mets rotation from 2016 – 2019:
ERA+
- Jacob deGrom 151 ERA+
- Carlos Carrasco 126 ERA+
- Noah Syndergaard 119 ERA+
- Trevor Bauer 119 ERA+
- Marcus Stroman 113 ERA+
FIP
- deGrom 2.82 FIP
- Syndergaard 2.83 FIP
- Carrasco 3.37 FIP
- Bauer 3.70 FIP
- Stroman 3.80 FIP
Looking at it, Bauer is clearly fourth. However, when you compare the relative levels of competition, Stroman has put up his numbers against VASTLY superior competition.
Taking that into account, when Syndergaard returns, that makes Bauer the fifth starter on this Mets team. Yes, he’d be by far the best fifth starter in the league, but a fifth starter nevertheless.
Now, Bauer did have a great 2020. However, it should be noted that came in a shortened season against absolutely dreadful competition. Moreover, Bauer, himself, put into question just how he was able to accomplish it.
If you’re the Mets, how can you possibly sign a pitcher to the highest contract when he’s likely going to be your fifth best starting pitcher? While a team could do whatever they want, this would seem like a mismanagement of resources.
No, the Mets should be better allocating those resources to positions of need like third, center, and the bullpen. They should be looking to extend their players including Stroman and Syndergaard. They should be letting another team roll the dice with Bauer.
The Mets have four pitchers better than Bauer. They should let that quartet led them in 2021 and hopefully well beyond that.