For the first time in seven years, I’m excited about the Mets in October. It used to be the Mets were home, and I had to wait and wait for Rangers hockey. This year, to my surprise, tonight is Opening Night in the NHL.
One of my favorite Rangers traditions, albeit a relatively new one, is the team salute to the fans after a win:
It’s a tradition I wish the Mets and MLB as a whole would adopt. It was great to see the Mets do it on the last game of the season:
I just wish they did it after every win. It would be great if after they do the handshake line after a win, the team would face the crowd and tip their caps to the crowd. It’s not a complaint. It’s only a suggestion.
In any event, I’m excited for another Rangers season. Anytime they have Henrik Lundqvist in between the pipes, they are a contender to win the Stanley Cup. However, I can wait until November to get excited.
There’s another championship run I’m more interested in now. Lets Go Mets!
I know I shouldn’t be looking ahead to the NLCS, but the Wild Card Game between the Cubs and Pirates is tonight. Also, the Mets still don’t play for another two days.
Despite the horrors of the 1988 NLCS, I don’t want to see the Cubs or the Pirates in the NLCS. I’d prefer the Cardinals, who will either be without Yadier Molina or will have a hobbled version of him. Furthermore, the Cardinals will also be without Carlos Martinez. I also believe Mike Matheny is not in the same league as Joe Maddon or Clint Hurdle as a manger. By the way, the Mets were also able to actually win a game against the Cardinals.
Overall, the Mets went a combined 0-13 against the Cubs and Pirates. The Mets at least went 3-4 against the Cardinals. However, the Pirates were the only team to play the post-Yoenis Cespedes trade Mets. In that series at Citi Field, the Pirates swept the Mets. The main difference in that series was the dominant Pirates bullpen. It’s a buzz saw I don’t want to see the Mets walk into again.
So with that said, I’m hoping the Cubs take care of the Pirates tonight. If not, I hope the Cardinals do. If it’s then up to the Mets, I like having to face the challenge because the Mets will have advanced to the NLCS and will have homefield advantage.
With that said, I still hope the Cubs win tonight.
Everyone is expecting great starting pitching in the NLDS. As seen earlier today, Jacob deGrom is as good against the Dodgers as Clayton Kershaw has been against the Mets. Potentially, this means the starting pitching will cancel each other out creating a battle of the bullpens.
Working backwards (using ESPN’s depth chart) the Mets and Dodgers each have terrific closers:
Jeurys Familia 2-2, 43 saves, 1.85 ERA, 1.000 WHIP, 9.9 K/9 (.207/.261/.309)
Kenley Jansen 2-1, 36 saves, 2.41 ERA, 0.783 WHIP, 13.8 K/9 (.176/.215/.298)
However, after that, the Mets have the better set-up men (note these numbers are the numbers with the team only):
Addison Reed 1-1, 1 save, 1.17 ERA, 1.043 WHIP, 10.0 K/9 (.200/.267/.273)
Tyler Clippard 4-1, 2 saves, 3.06 ERA, 1.052 WHIP, 7.2 K/9 (.200/.287/.336)
Jim Johnson 0-3, 1 save, 10.13 ERA, 2.036 WHIP, 8.2 K/9 (.381/.422/.524)
Carlos Frias 5-5, 4.06 ERA, 1.468 WHIP, 5.0 K/9 (.297/.356/.405)
This is a major advantage. If the Mets can stop the game from getting from the starter to Jansen, they can put runs on the board. However, according to Baseball Reference, the Dodgers have reshuffled their bullpen:
Juan Nicasio 1-3, 1 save, 3.86 ERA, 1.560 WHIP, 10.0 K/9 (.263/.358/.384)
Yimi Garcia 3-5, 1 save, 3.34 ERA, 0.953 WHIP, 10.8 K/9 (.209/.249/.346)
Pedro Baez 4-2, 3.35 ERA, 1.137 WHIP, 10.6 K/9 (.247/.288/.405)
These are much better, but hittable right handed pitchers. The Dodgers only have one left handed reliever right now, J.P. Howell, which means Terry Collins will get to pick and choose his spots with Michael Conforto, Kelly Johnson, and Kirk Nieuwenhuis. The Mets have a major matchup advantages in the late innings.
The bullpen disparity and Mets roster construction is the biggest reason I believe the Mets can and will win this series.
Update: Johnson is not on the roster.
Reliever Jim Johnson won't be on roster. Has been sent home "out of respect." "Didn't see him as next man up" so not sent to complex in AZ
— Bill Plunkett (@billplunkettocr) October 7, 2015
Earlier today, I covered how the Mets have fared against Clayton Kershaw. In Game One, Kershaw is going up against Jacob deGrom, and we’re expecting a pitcher’s duel.
From the earliest post, we learned that while Kershaw has dominated the Mets, like he does every other team, the Mets have fared better against him than the average team. Here’s how the Dodgers have fared against deGrom:
Starting Lineup
Carl Crawford 0-3 with 2 BBs and 1 K
Howie Kendrick 0-3 with 1 K
Adrian Gonzalez 3-8 with 2 HRs, 5 RBIs, 1 BB, and 3 Ks
Yasiel Puig 1-6 with 1 HR, 1 RBI, and 3 Ks
Andre Ethier 2-6 with 1 triple and 1 K
Corey Seager 0-0
Justin Turner 0-5 with 1 K
Yasmani Grandal 0-3 with 1 K
Combined 6-38 (.158 BA) with 2 BBs (.200 OBP) with one triple, three HRs (.447 slugging), 6 RBIs, and 12 Ks
Bench
A.J. Ellis 0-2 with 2 BBs
Jimmy Rollins 1-8 with 1 BB and 2 Ks
Chase Utley 3-10 with 2 BBs and 1 K
Enrique Hernandez 0-0
Joc Pederson 0-3
Ronald Torreyes 0-0
Combined 4-23 (.174 BA) with 5 BBs (.321 OBP), no extra base hits (.174 slugging), and 3 Ks
Team Totals 10-61 (.164 BA) with 7 BBs (.250 OBP), 1 triple, 3 HRs (.344 slugging), 6 RBIs, and 15 Ks
So overall, the Dodgers have not hit deGrom well with the exception of Gonzalez, Ethier, and Utley. It also seems that when the Dodgers get to deGrom, they hit him hard. As long as deGrom can keep the ball in the ballpark, the Dodgers are going to really struggle to score runs.
deGrom was amazing this season. He was the Mets ace. He’s shown he’s unhurt able when he’s amped up. He’s limited hitters to .215/.255/.318. He’s primed and ready to hold up his end of the bargain in an anticipated Game One pitcher’s duel.
Against Kershaw, you normally do not have much hope. The Mets will because their pitcher is just as deGrominant.
This series comes down to the Mets stud muffins against Zack Greinke and Clayton Kershaw. There could be a lot of 2-1 and 1-0 games. After Kershaw’s last game against the Mets, it’s hard to believe they can even hit him.
However, that game was in July. The Mets clean-up hitter was John Mayberry, Jr. Since that time, the Mets have added Yoenis Cespedes, Travis d’Arnaud, and David Wright to the lineup. Here’s how the current Mets lineup has fared against Kershaw:
Starting Lineup
Curtis Granderson 1-10, 1 BB, 1 K
David Wright 3-14, 1 double, 1 RBI, 4 BB, 2 Ks
Daniel Murphy 3-10 with an RBI
Yoenis Cespedes 0-3
Michael Cuddyer 4-16 with 2 RBIs and 3 Ks
Lucas Duda 1-10 with 1 BB and 7 Ks
Travis d’Arnaud 0-0
Ruben Tejada 5-14 with 3 BBs and 3 Ks
Combined 17-77 (.220 BA) with 9 BBs (.302 OBP), one double (.234 slugging), 4 RBIs, and 16 Ks
Bench
Wilmer Flores 3-6 with 1 RBI and 1 K
Kelly Johnson 3-15 with 1 HR, 2 RBIs and 5 Ks
Michael Conforto 0-0
Juan Lagares 0-7 with 1 K
Kirk Nieuwenhuis 0-0
Kevin Plawecki 0-3 with 1 K
Combined 6-31 (.194 BA & OBP) with a HR (.290 slugging), 3 RBIs, and 7 Ks
Team Totals 23-108 (.213 BA) with 9 BBs (.274 OBP), 1 double, 1 HR (.250 slugging), 7 RBIs, and 23 Ks.
This season Kershaw allowed batters to hit .194/.237/.284. Therefore, arguably, the Mets as a team have hit Kershaw better than the rest of the league. However, the truth really is Kershaw has dominated the Mets.
Looking over the numbers, the Mets would be best served by sitting Duda, moving Murphy to 1B, and letting Flores play 2B. I’m not sure the Mets will do that. They se inclined to put Duda out there.
This leaves the Mets hoping they can work the count to get to an awful Dodgers bullpen. The other Hope is Kershaw reverts to being a bad playoff pitcher. Kershaw is 1-5 with a 5.12 ERA and a 1.235 WHIP.
Either way, the Mets have as good a chance as anyone to beat Kershaw.
With Steven Matz complaining of a lingering injury, Dan Warthen observed a bullpen session and declared Matz ready to pitch against the Dodgers. Whoops! My bad. That link is from July 3rd.
With today’s workouts, Dan Warthen once again observed Matz’s bullpen session and declared it a success. That makes me nervous. We know what happened the last time Warthen declared a Matz bullpen session a success. Well, alright, Matz did beat the Dodgers. However, he would be shut down for three weeks. I’ll be honest with you. I’ll take that trade off now. It seems like the Mets will as well:
Sandy on Matz: "It's going to be a game day, call I think."
— Matt Ehalt (@MattEhalt) October 6, 2015
Calling Matz a “game time decision” means they’re going to see how he is on Friday when they finalize the rosters, or they’ll keep him on the roster and see how he is for Game Four. I hope he can pitch, but I’m not trusting Warthen.
Truth is Matz is still the best option for Game Four. I hope they give him every chance to make the roster.
Im by no means a Yankees fan. However, I am a Carlos Beltran fan. He was a great Met, and he’s one of the best postseason players of all time.
I’ve rooted for him even as he’s played for the enemies in St. Louis and the Bronx. Who knows how many more shots Beltran is going to get to win a World Series. While I don’t want to see the Yankees win another World Series, I would like to see Beltran win just one. I thought I would see it while he roamed CF in Flushing. It never happened.
It may never happen for him. The Yankees are not trending up right now. Next year, he will be 39 and in the last year of his deal. I hate to think the strike out to Luke Gregerson is how Beltran ends his postseason career. He deserves better.
Now matter what happens from this point forward, I’ll continue to root for him, even if he wears the enemy’s uniform.
With my Back to the Future post yesterday, I began to think about how some seemingly innocuous decisions had an impact on the Mets future. In 2004, the Mets organization put way too much stock in Spring Training performance and gave Tyler Yates a rotation spot and sent Aaron Heilman to AAA.
Yates was terrible as a starter. He allowed batters to hit .317/.405/.475 against him in seven starts. He had a 6.34 ERA and a 1.929 WHIP. I’m still stunned he went 1-4. He should’ve gone 0-7. Actually, he should never have started a game. The spot should’ve gone to Heilman.
Instead, Heilman spent most of the year in AAA. He made a few starts in 2004 and 2005, but he was mostly used as a reliever. Going into the 2006 season, Heilman found himself in another battle for the fifth starter spot. He lost the battle, but he became a quality set-up man.
Heilman started as the seventh inning guy. He took over the eighth inning after Duaner Sanchez‘s cab ride. For the year, he went 4-5 with a 3.62 ERA and a 1.161 WHIP. He allowed batters to hit .231/.298/.332. However, we remember none of this. We remember him as the guy who allowed the Yadier Molina homerun. We remember him as the guy who lost Game 7 of the 2006 NLCS. Ironically, we don’t have the same memories of Rick Aguilera.
The reason is the Mets rallied in 1986 whereas the 2006 Mets didn’t. Maybe the Mets aren’t in that position if Heilman made the starting rotation in 2004 and stayed there. It’s possible Heilman would’ve gone the way of Masato Yoshii or Mark Clark. They were good pitchers that were with the Mets for a short time. However, unless you’re a diehard, you have no lasting memories of them.
We do have a lasting memory of Aaron Heilman. His path there was all started because the Mets thought Tyler Yates was a better starting pitcher in 2004.
For all my issues with Terry Collins, he’s shown himself to be a great presence in the clubhouse. He certainly showed himself to be that today with Matt Harvey missing the workout:
Here’s TC’s version of the Harvey Episode: pic.twitter.com/69xkGdDhhg
— Marc Carig (@MarcCarig) October 6, 2015
He tried to quash it. He tried to put an end to the story. As he said, “Its over. Done. End of story. Still pitching Game 3.” He said it wasn’t a big deal. That’s how a leader handles it.
Let’s see how David Wright handles his issues with Harvey. Let’s first visit the innings limit drama. On the day of the press conference, here’s how Wright treated Harvey:
Yup, Wright snubbed him for all to see exacerbating the story. After the snub was reported everywhere, Wright needed to change course, and he did:
David Wright had "a four-inning conversation" with Harvey yesterday in the dugout, per Collins. Mets consider the clubhouse aspect resolved.
— Anthony DiComo (@AnthonyDiComo) September 7, 2015
That’s right. He had a four inning conversation in the dugout for all to see so everyone can praise him and forget his snub. The Mets then started winning, and Harvey announced he would pitch in the playoffs. All was forgotten until Harvey screwed up today. Wright’s response?
“I’m concerned with the guys who are here.” Are you kidding me? He could’ve squashed it. He could’ve said a million other things. He’s turning this into a Jeter/A-Rod type of situation. Instead, he gave the impression there’s a clubhouse problem. Collins is then answering questions about Harvey’s perception:
TC likes to say “perception is reality.” Here’s what he said about Harvey in that regard: pic.twitter.com/uBvk3U8vx9
— Marc Carig (@MarcCarig) October 6, 2015
Yes, this story is all Harvey’s fault. However, where was the Captain, the team leader, to step in and put an end to all of it? He was adding fuel to the fire while making sure everyone was at their assigned lunch seats.
Did that moment help Noah Syndergaard? Probably. However, I’m not sure how it helped the rookie to have that story leaked in Spring Training. All that happened there was Wright got to look like the Captain, and Thor got smacked down by everyone.
I don’t mean to beat up on Wright. He’s been a great Met, and I commend him for fighting to come back this year. However, that makes him a great player and a winner. It doesn’t make him a team leader, whether or not he is the Captain.
As we all know now, Matt Harvey missed today’s mandatory workout:
https://twitter.com/jareddiamond/status/651452048827879424
Look, I understand bridge and tunnel traffic. We’ve all been there. However, it’s easy to pick up a phone. By not picking up the phone and calling, it became a story. I know he eventually reached out, but clearly, he didn’t do it in time.
He was the only player who missed the workout. I heard Mike Francesca say this is uncharacteristic for Harvey, but that doesn’t matter. He created a story with his lack of responsibility. He irritated everyone with his lack of professionalism:
Matt Harvey missed workout. Says he hit tunnel traffic. pic.twitter.com/RsoFvU4Tig
— Marc Carig (@MarcCarig) October 6, 2015
This is now a distraction. The one thing a team does not need is a distraction. The team does not need a locker room problem. Certainly, the team needs to keep everything in house rather than take veiled shots at each other.
Seriously, I get why David Wright was upset, but he’s the captain. His thinly veiled shot of only caring about who is there is unbecoming. He only served to give the story more legs than quash it. His response should’ve been, “I don’t know why he missed the workout today, but I hope Matt is alright.”
Also, I know the last press conference was a disaster, but the least Harvey could have done was be a man and face the reporters. Don’t just offer up a statement. However, if reports are correct, he apologized to his teammates. I assume it was a genuine apology, and I hope the team accepted it.
The best thing for this team right now is to get away to Los Angeles for a few days. It’s another reason why not having homefield is a benefit. They can clear their heads and get ready for Game 1 Friday night. If Jacob deGrom goes out there and wins Game One, the story is dead.
If Harvey dominates in Game Three, we may never hear about this again.