Matt Harvey
The Mets are on the brink on losing the World Series. They’re down 3-1. You’ll hear a lot of stats and reasons why this is impossible. Today, I offer you one reason why they’re going to win tonight: Matt Harvey.
Put all the Dark Knight stuff aside. He’s not the Dark Knight tonight. That was a persona bestowed upon him as part of his rise and return from Tommy John surgery. No. Tonight is about the ace. The leader of the staff. The man who promised Terry Collins the Mets will be here. The man who delivered on that promise.
Gone is all the Harvey Dent nonsense. Harvey always has wanted this. The man did everything he could do to get himself to this point. He pushed himself past what his agent, his doctors, and his organization wanted. He will be there for his teammates, his fans, and his city tonight.
When Harvey went down two Augusts ago, Mets fans were depressed because we knew there was no chance of winning in 2014. When he came back in 2015, he rejuvenated the fan base. He rejuvenated the Mets. We all knew there was hope in 2015. Hope became promise. Promise became reality.
The reality now is Harvey takes the mound 27 outs away from extending the series. Twenty-seven outs away from fulfilling not only the promise he’s made with his words to Terry Collins, but also the promise he has with that terrific right arm. He’s going to deliver tonight. As you can tell from this post, I’m not focusing on fantasy in this belief . . . I’m relying on cold hard facts.
First, Harvey is terrific at home. This year he was 8-3 with a 2.23 ERA, 1.087 WHIP, and a 8.8 K/9. Second, he’s feeling more comfortable with his normal rest. Last time that happened in the postseason, he dominated the Cubs over 7.2 innings allowing only four hits, two earned, two walks, and nine strikeouts. He was a Juan Lagares misplay away from a much bigger night too. Third, the Royals haven’t seen him yet . . . at least the real Harvey.
In Games 1 & 2, the Mets were not doing what they do best. With one pitch and one game from Noah Syndergaard, the Mets starters are back. Harvey is now going to come in and get that 95+ MPH fastball going. Once that’s firmly established, he’s going to keep the Royals off balance with the offspeed and breaking stuff.
The Mets have their backs against the wall. Harvey is angry and raring to go. The comeback starts tonight.
We’ve all heard of the five stages of grief: (1) Denial; (2) Anger; (3) Bargaining; (4) Depression; and (5) Acceptance. Last night, after Daniel Murphy‘s error, I was in denial. I thought they would come back and win the game. Judging from my posts today, I’m at anger. Justifiable anger, but anger nevertheless.
Guess what? I’ve moved on from anger. I’ve processed everything. I looked at how it’s all happened. There are some things I’ve come to realize:
- This is a resilient baseball team that has answered every call when their backs were against the wall;
- The Mets have had a lead in every game; and
- The Mets still have the three best starting pitchers in this series.
It gives me hope. I’m not in the five stages of grief. There’s nothing to grieve. The Mets can still win this World Series starting with Matt Harvey tonight.
Think about it. When has it ever been easy for the Mets? Even in their easiest title run, 1969, they had to deal with Tom Seaver losing Game 1. The Mets got a brilliantly pitched game from Jerry Koosman in Game 2, but they had to deal with a blown 1-0 lead and were facing going down 2-0 to the heavily favored Orioles. The Mets pulled it out and the series.
In 1986, the Mets clearly had their best best ever. They won 108 games. Seriously, they do not get discussed enough as one of the best teams ever. Despite being a historically great team, they were on the verge of losing the World Series until an impossible rally. They trailed 3-0 in Game 7 until a sixth inning rally.
Now, they are down 3-1 in the series. They can still win, but it won’t be easy. However, there is still hope, and where there is hope, there’s a chance. I have hope they can do it. I mean c’mon we’re a Mets fans. We have no choice.
Ya Gotta Believe!
Tonight is Halloween, and we’re saying goodbye to the incredible month of Murphtober. If this game goes into the late evening hours, it will be the second time the World Series will go into November (it will anyway).
After Daniel Murphy dominated October, it’s time for a Met to take up the mantle for November. Here are some suggestions:
Curtis Granderson – Grandvember
David Wright – Davember
Daniel Murphy – Murphvember
Yoenis Cespedes – Yovember
Travis d’Arnaud – Travember
Wilmer Flores – Wilvember or Flovember
Juan Lagares & Juan Uribe – Juanvember
Matt Harvey – Harvember
As usual, I’m open to any suggestions you may have.
Lets Go Mets
Before the series, I detailed how the Mets would win this series because they essentially had three Madison Bumgarners. I have to admit after two games, I have to admit my comparison doesn’t look good. I obsess over everything, and I have to know why. Note to my son, good luck dealing with me buddy.
When I first looked at everything, I saw that Bumgarner established his fastball and then mixed in his breaking pitches. It’s how the Mets three stud muffins pitched all year long. My eyes told me in Game 1 and 2 that Matt Harvey and Jacob deGrom abandoned who they were.
They didn’t establish the fastball. Instead, they started mixing in the offspeed changes immediately. When they needed to get the big outs in the fifth for deGrom and sixth for Harvey, the Royals had seen everything, and they weren’t surprised by anything. However, I’m a fan. I see a lot of things, and usually what I see is pro-Mets.
Here is deGrom’s breakdown from the regular season:
- 96.23 MPH fastball 37.89%
- 96.44 MPH sinker 18.01%
- 86.54 MPH change 15.84%
- 90.03 MPH slider 12.01%
- 81.63 MPH curve 16.15 %
Here’s deGrom last night:
- 95.48 MPH fastball 28.72%
- 95.48 MPH sinker 27.66%
- 86.53 MPH change 10.64%
- 87.96 MPH slider 13.83%
- 81.02 MPH curve 19.15 %
Here’s what I see. He had a slight dip in velocity. He was throwing more lower in the zone and not moving the ball horizontally in the zone. He threw more breaking pitches than changing speeds. In more ways than one, he was a different pitcher.
Harvey was more successful, but he couldn’t hold a lead. I’m curious what, if anything, he did different than deGrom and/or during the regular season. Here’s Harvey’s regular season:
- 95.86 MPH fastball 59.56%
- 88.08 MPH change 11.48%
- 90.29 MPH slider 14.75%
- 84.01 MPH curve 14.21%
Here’s his Game 1 start:
- 94.72 MPH fastball 37.50%
- 87.56 MPH change 25.00%
- 89.57 MPH slider 21.25%
- 83.09 MPH curve 16.25%
Like deGrom, he had a slight velocity dip. He was more drastic in how he pitched. Harvey pretty much threw any pitch at anytime. I’m not sure if that indicates he kept the Royals more off balance and that’s why he went deeper in the game giving up more runs. I’m not sure if Harvey’s secondary pitches are just that much better.
What I do see is that Harvey and deGrom changed how they pitched. Personally, I think it’s from an over reliance on scouting reports. I’m not a dinosaur. I think you have to scout your opponent to find out how to best beat your opponent.
However, you also have to scout yourself. You need to find out the things you do well. The Mets didn’t do enough of that in Kansas City, and they suffered. It’s a lesson for Noah Syndergaard. You have to be yourself on the mound. Establish the fastball and mix in your secondary pitches.
It worked against the Royals last year. It’s worked for Thor this year. It’s how the Mets will turn this series around.
Those 90’s Braves teams were built on pitching. By any measure, the third best pitcher was John Smoltz. However, he was the best postseason pitcher. It’s a big reason why he’s in the Hall of Fame.
Curt Schilling was on the same staff as Randy Johnson with the 2001 Diamondbacks. He was on the same staff as Pedro Martinez in 2004. Again, Schilling was not as good as those legends. However, when the postseason came the manager have Schilling the ball because he was the better postseason pitcher.
Tonight, this is what is on the line for Jacob deGrom. He’s been terrific this postseason. He’s 3-0 with a 1.80 ERA, 1.000 WHIP, and a 12.2 K/9. He’s won a deciding Game 5 on the road with nothing. Now, he’s on the verge of making major league history:
https://twitter.com/bbtn/status/659434494475292673
You can argue if Matt Harvey or Noah Syndergaard are better. I have. Right now, this isn’t about who’s the better pitcher. It’s about who is the clutch pitcher. Who’s the great postseason pitcher. deGrom is on well on his way to showing he belongs in the class of Smoltz and Schilling. He can cement that status tonight.
He’s the reason Mets fans should be optimistic. He may be the reason why the Mets may win the World Series. It’s time for him to firmly establish his newly earned status as a Big Game Pitcher.
Coming into this game, neither the Mets nor the Royals had won the first game in the World Series. Last night into this morning, they turned it into an art form.
This is now the longest Game 1 (innings-wise) in #WorldSeries history. #NYMvsKC
— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) October 28, 2015
Ultimately, the game came down to Chris Young and Bartolo Colon. One was as tall as the other one was wide. While Young was mowing down the Mets, Colon was on a tightrope. He finally fell through allowing a sac fly in the 14th. The winning runner was on base after a Wright error and no challenge. The game was just sheer torture. Prior to this, there was an actual baseball game.
The game did not start the way Matt Harvey and the Mets wanted. Yoenis Cespedes misplayed a fly ball out into an Alcides Escobar inside the park homerun. The first in the World Series since a player named Mule Haas in the 1929 World Series.
This would kill most teams, but these Mets have shown themselves to be resilient. Travis d’Arnaud singled in Daniel Murphy in the fourth. Curtis Granderson homered in the fifth. Conforto hit a sac fly scoring Cespedes in the sixth.
Harvey was good tonight. Not great. Not bad. Just good. He pitched six innings allowing five hits, three earned, two walks, and two strikeouts. He was handed a two run lead in the sixth and couldn’t hold it.
After one run scored, he had a chance to get out of it with Mike Moustakas at the plate. Harvey stuck with the offspeed pitches and was seemingly pitching around him to get to Salvador Perez with first base open. A changeup caught too much of the plate, and Moustakas got the RBI single an inning after he made a diving stop to prevent a possible RBI double. From the seventh inning on, it was a battle of the bullpens.
Remember, the biggest advantage the Royals had this series was the bullpen and team defense. Kelvin Herrera was lighting up the radar gun. He had two outs in the eight when Juan Lagares came to the plate. He was in the game as a defensive replacement for Michael Conforto. Mets fans collectively groaned.
Lagares had a terrific at bat fighting off everything Herrera had. He got a single. He then barely stole second, and then this happened:
Actually, no, but it was close.
Wilmer Flores hit a chopper towards Eric Hosmer, who tried to backhand it. It went through him, and the Mets grabbed a 4-3 lead. In a shock to everyone, Jeurys Familia blew the save on a Alex Gordon to homer in the ninth. It was a rare blown save:
Jeurys Familia had converted 21 straight save chances entering day
Last one came day before Mets trade for Cespedes (July 30 vs Padres)
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) October 28, 2015
Jon Niese came on to pitch in the game he was born to pitch in. Niese was born the day the Mets won the World Series. Well, he pitched like he was born for the moment. He went three innings holding the Royals at bay.
As we know it wasn’t enough. After watching it part of me wishes the TV stayed off.
However, the Mets hung in there. They’re resilient, and they have Jacob deGrom tonight. All they need is a split. It’s still on the table. I just hope Collins is better. The Mets generally need to be better.
They will. They just need to show the same resiliency they’ve shown in this game and all year.
Everything that happened in August was leading up to tonight. Matt Harvey is starting Game 1 of the World Series. It shouldn’t be any other way.
After last season, Harvey promised Terry Collins the Mets would be here:
Terry Collins said after the game @MattHarvey33 came up to him & said "We're going to do it next year." Terry added "Matt doesn't lie to me"
— New York Mets (@Mets) September 28, 2014
He delivered in that promise. He pitched deep in the NL East clincher. He gutted through a pivotal Game 3 of the NLDS. He threw down the gauntlet in Game 1 of the NLCS setting the tone for a sweep of the Cubs. I honestly don’t think anyone else should be on the mound tonight.
This is what Harvey was talking about when he promised he would pitch in the playoffs. This is why it was the smart move to sacrifice a meaningless game to get Harvey ready. This is the reward for Harvey has working so hard in his Tommy John rehab to get to this point. However, it’s more than a reward. He’s earned this. He’s been terrific this year.
He will be terrific tonight. He’s got the stuff to beat the Royals. He’s got the determination. You think he will be good tonight?
Mets’ Matt Harvey will start on 9 days’ rest. He has not allowed a run in 3 previous starts on 9+ days’ rest (excluding season debuts).
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) October 27, 2015
There’s only one thing to say now:
Happy Harvey World Series Day!
Let’s face facts. If not for Madison Bumgarner, this would be a title defense for the Royals as opposed to redemption. It took Bumgarner everything he had to help the Giants win the World Series.
In the 2014 World Series, Bumgarner went 2-0 with 1 save, a 0.43 ERA, 0.476 WHIP, and a 7.3 K/9. He basically said to his teammates, I got three; you just need to get one. In the three games he pitched in, the Royals averaged one run per game. In the other games, the Royals averaged six runs per game. That’s a huge gap.
With all the noise over the Royals hitting the 95+ MPH pitching well, I wanted to see what Bumgarner threw in that World Series:
- 93.40 MPH fastball 52.23% of the time
- 85.04 MPH changeup 3.78% of the time
- 76.25 MPH curve 15.12% of the time
- 87.46 MPH cutter 27.84% of the time
- 67.20 MPH slow curve 1.03% of the time
This shows not only how to beat the Royals but how to pitch in general. You want to establish the fastball and keep the batters off balance with the offspeed pitches. Let’s see how the Mets stud muffins compare this postseason:
- 95.86 MPH fastball 59.56% of the time
- 88.08 MPH change 11.48% of the time
- 90.29 MPH slider 14.75% of the time
- 84.01 MPH curve 14.21% of the time
- 96.23 MPH fastball 37.89% of the time
- 96.44 MPH sinker 18.01% of the time
- 86.54 MPH change 15.84% of the time
- 90.03 MPH slider 12.01% of the time
- 81.63 MPH curve 16.15% of the time
- 98.66 MPH fastball 26.64% of the time
- 98.63 MPH sinker 32.31% of the time
- 89.46 MPH change 16.16% of the time
- 87.96 MPH slider 8.73% of the time
- 81.53 MPH curve 16.16% of the time
What does this information tell us? The Mets three aces pitch similarly to Bumgarner. They establish the fastball and use the same ratio of breaking pitches to keep the hitters off balance. There are two key differences here: (1) Bumgarner is a lefty; and (2) the Royals offense is much improved.
However, keep in mind the Royals couldn’t handle Bumgarner at all last year. Now, the Mets are running out three Bumgarners out there. They will pitch in six of the seven games if necessary.
In the end, I’m not sure how the Royals can keep up their 5.9 runs per postseason game. If they want to beat the Mets they will either have to find a way or pitch much better. If they don’t do either or both, the Mets will win the World Series.
It seemed like the immediate narrative after the conclusion of both League Championship Series was the Mets biggest strength may not be a strength in the World Series:
Royals vs. 95-mph+ pitches, MLB ranks in parentheses:
BA: .284 (1st)
SLG: .432 (2nd)
K%: 15.1% (1st)Mets throw the most 95-mph+ pitches.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) October 24, 2015
As we all know, the Mets greatest strength is its good young pitching. The Mets pitching throws it hard and over 95 MPH:
- Matt Harvey – 96.54 MPH four seamer and 96.11 MPH sinker
- Jacob deGrom – 95.81 MPH four seamer and 95.49 MPH sinker
- Noah Syndergaard – 97.75 MPH four seamer and 97.78 MPH sinker
- Steven Matz 94.57 MPH four seamer
- Jeurys Familia 98.21 MPH four seamer and 97.66 MPH sinker
That’s not good news. Fortunately for the Mets, that’s not the whole story. While the Royals hit high heat well, they do not hit offspeed pitching and breaking balls well. The Royals are only hitting .220 on pitches 87 MPH and below. The highest percentage of Mets pitches this postseason was in this range.
We saw it in the NLCS. The Mets did throw their 95+ MPH fastballs, but they also mixed in their offspeed and breaking pitches early. The Mets pitching isn’t great just because of their fastballs. They’re great because they pitch great.
During the regular season, the Mets ranked second in WHIP with a 1.18 mark. They ranked fourth with a 3.49 K/BB ratio. They ranked fourth with a 3.43 ERA. They allowed the second least amount of walks, and they were sixth with a .243 batting average against. All said and done, if you want to beat the Mets pitching, you have to beat them. They’re not going to walk you, and they’re not giving up many hits.
This either lines up perfectly for the Royals or it’ll be a complete disaster. The Royals were second to last in walks. They struck out the least amount of times. They were third in team batting average. They were 24th (last in the AL) in homers, but they were 11th in slugging.
Overall, the Royals put a lot of balls in play against a staff that doesn’t allow a lot of hits. At times like this, I’m reminded of the adage of good pitching beats good hitting. It’s worked for the Mets so far this postseason.
On one warm May night, Matt Harvey took the mound. I had never seen anyone as dominant as Harvey was that night. To say he was perfect was an understatement.
Through 6.2 innings, no one could touch him. He had already struck out nine batters. He walked no one. Then Alex Rios stepped to the plate. I remember leaning over to my brother and saying, “this is it right here. He’s the only one that can do it.” Then he did.
Actually, it wasn’t that simple. Rios hit the ball to an out of position Ruben Tejada, who couldn’t get enough on the ball to throw out a speedy Rios. That was all Harvey allowed. After that, he would strike out another three and pitch nine innings needing just 107 pitches. Believe it or not, it was a no decision as the Mets couldn’t score until the tenth inning.
A lot has happened since then. Harvey had Tommy John. He went from fan favorite to villain to fan favorite again. Rios has changed teams twice in the hopes of making the postseason. He did this year. In Game One, he faces off against Matt Harvey for the first time since that fateful at bat.
Yet again, Alex Rios stands in the way of the Mets making history. It’s time to rewrite the ending.