Cespedes Is Cooking

What did you have for breakfast today? 

Me? I had my usual bottle of Diet Coke or Diet Pepsi. I would’ve grabbed something on the way into work, but I didn’t have time to stop. I really could’ve gone for some waffles, but there’s no waffle iron at the office:

I know what I’ll do. I’ll give someone the keys to my Lamborghini to pick up a waffle iron. 

Just think about that for a second. Think about loving waffles so much you toss your keys for a car worth about $400,000 to make a Target run. Check that. You are so particular about your waffles that you’re willing to give the keys to that car to someone to get a round waffle maker because you don’t particularly like square waffles. 

I have to admit that year two of Yoenis Cespedes has been terrific thus far. Once Cespedes has arrived he has been the constant topic of conversation. 

We’re not talking about Terry Collins’ decision in Game 5 of the World Series. We didn’t freak out when Jacob deGrom tweaked his groin. There are a number of other issues that may have arisen that we’re not aware, or if we’re aware, we’re not focused upon them. 

Instead the talk is Cespedes’ cars and his breakfast options. It’s keeping Spring Training light and fun thus far. Instead of discussing what went wrong last year or what issues this team may have this year, we’re focused upon Cespedes. That’s a good thing. He was here to be the focal point of the Mets. He’s doing that. 

If I have one issue with Cespedes right now, it’s this – how could you not have a round waffle clause in your $27 million contract?  

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My Son is Cooler Than Cespedes

It has been less than a week, but Yoenis Cespedes has been the talk of the town again. Last year, it was because of the homeruns. This week, the buzz started when Cespedes’ rolled into camp with a Polaris Slingshot:

Looking at it, it’s nothing more than a tricycle. If all it takes to be cool is to ride a tricycle and hit homeruns, my son’s got that:

  
   
On top of all of that, he just looks like one “cool guy” whatever he does:

  
 

So while, Cespedes is cool, while he’s got that swagger, he’s got nothing on my son. 

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Super Matt Reynolds

Whenever a prospect is coming through the system or a young player makes his way to the majors, invariably there is a comparison made to an All Star caliber player. Very rarely do we see a comparison to a utility player or a grinder like Joe McEwing. 

With that said, if Matt Reynolds wants to be a part of this Mets team going forward, he will need to become this generation’s Super Joe. 

Right now, Reynolds path to the majors is blocked. At the major league level, the Mets have Asdrubal Cabrera, Ruben Tejada, and Wilmer Flores provide extraordinary major league depth at the shortstop position. On the horizon, the Mets have two very well regarded shortstop prospects in Gavin Cecchini and Amed Rosario.  For what it’s worth, Rosario is likely ticketed to play shortstop in AA, and Cecchini will be the shortstop in AAA. In short (pun intended), Reynolds will never be the shortstop for the Mets. 

Even if he moves off of shortstop, his options are limited. He’s blocked at second by Dilson Herrera. Even if the younger Herrera were to falter, it’s much more likely that the Mets would turn to Cecchini or sign a free agent than Reynolds. Also, given his lack of power throughout the minors, it’s unlikely the Mets will turn to him go play third. No, Reynolds’ future, at least with the Mets, is as a utility player. 

For his part, Reynolds is willing to play all over the field just to make it to the majors.  He will play some outfield during Spring Training.  As Reynolds told Adam Rubin, he knows a position change is in order:

No one has talked to me about it, but I heard about it from press conferences and everything. I’m willing to do whatever it takes to make it to the big leagues. I figured that I’d probably be changing positions. Honestly, I just look at it as it makes me more versatile, and there’s more opportunity for me to get called up and maybe stay up there. 

Now, Joe McEwing was only a 28th round pick. When you are a 28th round pick, you are not seen as a prospect. You have to be ready, willing, and able to do whatever is necessary to get to the majors. It’s not only a talent issue. It’s a mindset. You have to show a lot of character and resiliency not only to make it to the majors, but also to stay there.

It was McEwing’s attitude and drive that helped him have a nine year career. It’s why Tony LaRussa requested a pair of autographed spikes from McEwing. He has the type of energy and drive that is infectious. It’s why he was a useful player. It’s why teams loved having him on the roster. It’s why he stays in the game as a major league coach and is a potential manager. 

Reynolds was a second round pick. Typically, second round picks are not seen as utility players.  As long as they produce, they usually have an easier path to the majors. With that said, it’s no guarantee. At some point, every player faces a turning point in their careers. For Matt Reynolds, that time is now. It’s time for him to embrace his future as a utility player. 

Seemingly, he’s doing that. If he meets this challenge with the same drive and enthusiasm that McEwing once did, Reynolds has a real future not just with the Mets, but in baseball. It’s quite possible Reynolds’ future with the Mets is this generation’s Joe McEwing. Right now, Reynolds seems ready to do what is necessary to get to that point. 

If he does, that means Reynolds will have a fine major league career. 

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Mets Defense Is Still Bad?!?!?

While the Mets are certainly favorites in the NL East, they are not unbeatable. Any team is subject to the injury bug. This team projects to be a high strikeout team. There was the bizarre claim that the position players are too old. However, I did not think that people would cite middle infield defense as a cause. No, seriously. 

In an offseason where the Mets jettisoned Daniel Murphy and moved Wilmer Flores to the bench, the narrative has been that the Mets are much improved defensively over last year. It appears not everyone is buying it, so let’s analyze to see if it’s true. 

UZR

Generally speaking, Ultimate Zone Ratibg (UZR) measures a fielder’s range. Obviously, the better the number, the better the range. The better the range, the more opportunities to make plays. 

In measuring year to year UZR, you may get a sense of how that player performed that season. However, it is too small a sample size to determine the player’s defensive abilities. You need a minimum of three years to do that. As such, to determine if the Mets are better defensively as per UZR, the 2015 UZR, along with the prior two years, should be reviewed. 

Here are Murphy’s UZRs for over the past three years:

  1. 2015 – (1.3)
  2. 2014 – (5.6)
  3. 2013 – (4.9)

All told, the combined -11.5 suggests what many already assumed. Murphy is a poor defensive second baseman. In 2016, he’s being replaced by Neil Walker, whose UZR over the past three seasons are as follows:

  • 2015 – (6.8)
  • 2014 – (6.8)
  • 2013 – (1.4)

Walker has a -15 UZR. He’s coming off consecutive -6.8 UZR seasons. At least in terms of UZR, he was worse than Murphy last year, and he’s been worse than Murphy over the part three years. In terms of UZR, the Mets have taken a step back defensively at second. 

The Mets sought to upgrade the shortstop position by bringing in Asdrubal Cabrera, who most fans perceived as an upgrade offensively and defensively. Here is Cabrera’s UZR at shortstop over the past three seasons:

  • 2015 – (6.0)
  • 2014 – (6.6)
  • 2013 – (12.8)

Wow. That’s a -25.4. To see if that’s an upgrade, here are Flores’ UZR at shortstop:

  • 2015 – (2.5)
  • 2014 – 4.0 

Now, before we point to Flores’ having a 2.5 UZR over two years, it’s important to note, it’s only two years of data. Furthermore, in each of those two years, Flores was not the everyday shortstop for a full season. Also, your eyes will tell you that he struggled there, especially early in the season. With that said, when thrust into the position in the postseason with no safety net, he played well at shortstop. While the team had defensive miscues in the World Series, Flores was not one of those players. 

Also, keep in mind that Cabrera was that poor of a defensive shortstop. Therefore, as far as UZR is concerned, the Mets are actually worse defensively. 

DRS

Generally speaking, Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) measures a player’s ability to make plays at their position as opposed to an average player at their position. Like UZR, the higher the number the better. Furthermore, like UZR, DRS is best viewed in three year clips to get a true measure of a player’s ability. 

Here is the DRS for Daniel Murphy over the past three years:

  • 2015 – (6)
  • 2014 – (10)
  • 2013 – (13)

Looking over these numbers, Murphy has a cumulative -29 DRS over the past three years. While it can be argued that he’s been improving, it doesn’t change the fact that he’s still a poor defensive second baseman. Conversely, here are Neil Walker’s numbers:

  • 2015 – (2)
  • 2014 – (2)
  • 2013 – 9

In reviewing Walker’s numbers, he may have slipped a little the past two years; however, he’s still a positive 5 in DRS. In reviewing DRS, Walker is a much better defender at second base than Murphy has been. 

Neil Walker’s new double play partner, Asrubal Cabrera, has not had DRS numbers as strong as Walker:

  • 2015 – (7)
  • 2014 – (7)
  • 2013 – (16)

Again, Cabrera has ugly numbers. Over the past three years, he sits at a -30 DRS. For someone that is supposed to be an upgrade, these are not promising numbers.  However, in order to determine if he’s actually an improvement, we need to look at Flores’ numbers:

  • 2015: (10)
  • 2014: (3)

Again, the caution with Flores is that these stats are a small sample size. He still hasn’t played a full season at the position. With that said, if you wanted a stat to confirm the your eye test, this stat is the one. However, before casting dispersions on Flores, keep in mind the Mets are replacing him with a bad shortstop with limited range. 

Conclusion

Using UZR and DRS, there is a reasonable debate to be had as to whether Murphy or Walker is better at second base. However, when framing those arguments, it should be noted  Walker has been in decline the past few years.  So yes, Walker MIGHT be better, but it’s also true he’s getting worse at the position. 

As for shortstop, the only thing we truly know is that Cabrera is bad defensively. He’s 30 years old and not likely to get any better. He’s replacing a 24 year old that seemingly grew into the position. Flores played very well defensively in the postseason. 

Overall, while Mets fans may believe the team is better off defensively without Murphy and Flores up the middle, the stats don’t bear that out. Rather, the Mets are more likely to have the same deficiencies they had last year.

If you are going to argue the current Mets double play combination is better, it is not because of their defense. 

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d’Arnaud Beats You in Many Ways

There is no more physically, psychologically, and intellectually demanding position than catcher. 

The catcher needs to know the entire scouting report for the opposition at the plate and on the basepaths. The catcher needs to balance a hitter’s strength and weaknesses against his pitcher’s in calling a game. If a pitcher doesn’t have a pitch working, he has to create a new strategy on the fly. When a pitch is thrown, he has to do all he can to make sure the pitch is called a strike. Throughout the game, he has to keep the pitcher’s head in the game. It’s especially tough when the pitcher is getting squeezed. 

When his team is up to bat, he needs to talk to the pitcher about the batters coming up the next inning. He needs to talk with the manager and pitching coach not only about that, but also how the pitcher is throwing and what he has left. By the way, at some point, he has to bat 4-4 times in a game to help put some runs on the board for the pitcher. 

The catcher faces pitches in the dirt he has to eat up with any part of his body. He will get nicked with a foul tip or an errant swing. Runners try to take him out with a slide, or in very rare instances, he can get run over at home plate. The catcher is bound to have some bumps and bruises or trips to the DL. Even after a tough game, the catcher comes back and does it all tomorrow. 

Even though all of this is gust the tip of the iceberg of a catcher’s responsibilities, how do most people judge the effectiveness of a catcher?  Their effectiveness in throwing out potential base stealers. 

It was the topic in John Harper’s New York Daily News column about Travis d’Arnaud‘s troubles throwing out baserunners in the postseason. Actually, to call it a difficulty is an understatement. Despite being better than league average in throwing out baserunners during the regular season, d’Arnaud struggled mightily in the postseason. Would be basestealers were a perfect 11/11 against him and the Mets pitching staff. 
This was a major focus of Harper’s article. For his part, d’Arnaud readily admits that shouldn’t happen, and he says he needs to improve. It was an important enough issue for Terry Collins that he made it a point to take a part in the first throwing drills of Spring Training. There was talk of a need to improve d’Arnaud’s mechanics and the like. 

What was overlooked was that of the 11 people who stole a base against the Mets in the postseason, only one scored a run. A big reason why is that d’Arnaud excels in all the other areas of being a catcher. 

Since he became the Mets catcher, d’Arnaud has been an excellent pitch framer. Last year, he led the majors in highest percentage of balls being called strikes. When there is a premium being placed on the pitch counts and innings pitched for this young staff, every strike d’Arnaud can steal is crucial. Furthermore, getting strikes called puts a pitcher in an advantageous position. This usually leads to shorter at bats and more outs. 

Additionally, there is the subjective element of catching. The pitchers like throwing to him. They feel comfortable while he’s behind the plate. He instills confidence in his staff. 

By the way, he’s also a terrific hitter. He was the second best offensive catcher in baseball last year. In the NLCS, he hit a homerun off of the Homerun Apple. d’Arnaud hit it so hard, the apple needed a bandaid. 

So overall, d’Arnaud does everything you could ever want your catcher to do. He has the confidence of his pitching staff. He gets the pitches called for strikes. He is a good hitter. Basically, d’Arnaud comes to beat you in multiple ways each and every day. If he struggles for a stretch with throwing out baserunners, there are other parts of his game that overshadow it, that help to prevent that run from scoring. 

d’Arnaud may struggle throwing out people again next year. That’s fine. As long as he keeps doing what he’s doing, he will still be a terrific all-around catcher. He will help the Mets return to the postseason and win the World Series. 

Editor’s Note: this article first appeared on metsmerizedonline.com

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This Is a Good Group of Guys

At this point, I’m simply in awe of this Mets team. It’s not the pitching. It’s not the power from the lineup. No, it’s the collection of the fine men they’ve assembled on this team:

Moments like this start with Terry Collins, who has time and time again proven himself to be a good man. Last year, he hand wrote a letter to a grieving family. He celebrated each victory with his team and the fans. Terry Collins gets it, and he makes sure his players get it as well. 

In 2016, Terry Collins will drive us crazy with his moves. He will cost the Mets games as he has done in the past. When that happens, I’m going to be upset. I’m going to utter more than a few expletives. I’ll calm down because Terry Collins is the right man to lead this Mets team. He brings the best out of his players both on and off the field. 

This is why the Mets stop to pose for a picture with a young fan that just had a life saving operation. It’s why the team does any number of things they do off the field we will never hear mentioned. This team gets it, and they do the right thing. 

As Mets fans, we’re lucky to have Terry Collins leading this team. 

Editor’s Note: this article first ran on metsmerizedonline.com

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It’s Not World Series or Bust

I remember back in 2000, the stories were that Bobby Valentine needed to make the World Series in order to keep his job. The amazing thing is he actually did it. 

Just think about everything that had to happen that year for the Mets to make the World Series. First, the Mets had an overhaul of its outfield during the season.  On Opening Day, the Mets outfield was, from left to right, Rickey Henderson–Darryl Hamilton–Derek Bell. At the end of the year, it was Benny Agbayani–Jay Payton-Derek Bell. Agbayani was only on the Opening Day roster because MLB allowed the team to have expanded rosters for their opening series in Japan. 

On top of that, Todd Zeile was signed to replace John Olerud. Zeile had to become a first baseman after playing third for 10 years. Edgardo Alfonzo had to adapt from moving from the second spot in the lineup to the third spot. The Mets lost Rey Ordonez to injury and first replaced him with Melvin Mora for 96 games before trading him for the light hitting Mike Bordick. More or less, all of these moves worked. Then came the postseason. 
A lot happened in the NLDS. After losing Game One, the Mets faced a quasi must win in Game Two. They were leading before Armando Benitez blew a save. I know. I’m shocked too. The Mets regained the lead, and they won the game when John Franco got a borderline third strike call against Barry Bonds. In Game Three, the Mets won on a Agbayani 13th inning walk off homerun. This was followed by Bobby Jones closing out the series on a one-hitter. 

The Mets were then fortunate that the Braves lost to the Cardinals in the other NLDS series. The Mets tore through the Cardinals with new leadoff hitter Timo Perez. We saw all that luck run out in the World Series. We watched Zeile’s potential homerun land on top of the fence and bounce back. On the same play, Perez was thrown out at home. In the same game, Benitez blew the save. Unfortunately, there were no more heroics. 

We saw this repeated in 2015. The epically bad Mets offense had to have its pitching hold things together until help came. Part of that required the Nationals to underperform while the Mets were fighting tooth and nail just to stay in the race. 

In the NLDS, the Mets were on the verge of elimination. They weren’t eliminated because somehow, some way Jacob deGrom pitched six innings with absolutely nothing. The Mets then needed Daniel Murphy to have a game for the ages. He stole a base while no one was looking, and he hit a big homerun. It was part of an amazing run through the postseason for Murphy. Like in 2000, it came to a crashing halt in the World Series. 

No matter how good your team is, it takes a lot of luck to win the World Series. Look at the 86 Mets. 

In the NLCS, they barely outlasted the Astros. In Game Three, they needed a Lenny Dykstra two run homerun in the bottom of the ninth to win 6-5. In Game Five, Gary Carter hit a walk off single in the 12th to send the Mets back to Houston up 3-2. It was important because they didn’t want to face Mike Scott and his newfound abilities. With that pressure, they rallied from three down in the ninth, blew a 14th inning lead, and nearly blew a three run lead in the 16th inning. 

Following this, the Mets quickly fell down 0-2 in the World Series before heading to Boston. After taking 2/3 in Boston, the Mets had to rally in the eighth just to tie Game Six. There are books that can be written not only about the 10th inning, but also Mookie Wilson‘s at bat. 

First, they had to have a none on two out rally with each batter getting two strikes against them.  For Calvin Schiraldi to even be in the position to meltdown, he had to be traded by the Mets to the Red Sox heading into the 1986 season. In return, the Mets got Bobby Ojeda, who won Game Three and started Game Six. John McNamara removed Schiraldi way too late and brought in Bob Stanley. His “wild pitch” in Mookie’s at bat allowed the tying run to score. You know the rest:

By the way, keep in mind Bill Buckner wasn’t pulled for a defensive replacement. Also, the Mets had to rally late from 3-0 deficit just to tie Game Seven. 

We need to keep all of this is mind when setting expectations for the 2016 season. Terry Collins is right when he says World Series title or bust is unfair. We know way too much can happen between now and the World Series. Right now, the only goal should be winning the NL East. If the Mets do that, they have met their reasonable expectations. After that, the Mets are going to need a little luck to win the World Series. 

Fortunately, the Mets are carrying a four leaf clover in the form of Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, and Jeurys Familia

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Return of the Racing Stripe Jerseys

Yesterday, the Mets announced that the Mets will wear the iconic 1986 racing stripe jerseys every Sunday home game this season. I love these jerseys, but it does seem odd that the team is wearing these jerseys each and every Sunday. 

The Mets everyday left fielder, Michael Conforto, was born on March 1, 1993. At that time, the only members of the 86 Mets still around were Dwight Gooden and Howard Johnson. Gooden’s Mets career was effectively over at that point. He was a shell of his former self due to drug abuse and injuries. HoJo was only a utility player on the 86 team. The main contribution he made that year was being the on deck batter when Ray Knight scored off of Mookie Wilson‘s little dribbled up the first base line. 

It seems odd to me to see Conforto wearing a 25th anniversary patch that was created for a team seven years before he was born. 

Again, if the Mets want to do this, they should do it right. Update the patch to commemorate the 30th anniversary of the 1986 World Series championship. This way it truly becomes an homage to the 1986 team that it was intended to be. Furthermore, the jerseys will look more appropriate when you purchase them.  

Speaking of purchasing one, which I intend to do, there are two problems with the jerseys. The first is the diaper effect of the jerseys:

  

The next is if you don’t want the diaper, you don’t get the patch, nor do you get the option to personalize it:

  
One last note, am I the only one that thinks it’s going to look absurd to see Tim Teufel effectively wearing Darryl Strawberry‘s jersey?  

Overall, I love that these jerseys are back. I think the Mets were smart making them the Sunday jerseys. I hope they return in 2017. I just wish they were updated to be the tribute the Mets wanted them to be. 

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The Mets Took Over New York Because They’re Awesome

No matter how you slice or dice it, the Mets have gone from an under .500 team to taking over New York in one year. How did they do it?  

For starters, the Mets went to the World Series. They went on a magical run and came up just short. Additionally, they have assembled a roster that is more than capable of returning to the World Series this year, but also in years to come. Just as important as all of this, the Mets have a team that is good to the fans. Even after a loss in the World Series, they came out to share the moment with the fans. The fans love this team, and the feelings seem mutual. 

One major reason why the fans love the team is the larger than life personalities on the team. 

Matt Harvey travels across the talk show circuit like he’s got a movie about to be released even though “The Dark Knight Rises” was released in 2012. No, it’s not a coincidence that the movie was released the year he was first called up to the majors. 
After the World Series, Noah Syndergaard took his own victory tour going to each New York stadium letting them know he owned the city. He actively accepts and plays off the Thor superhero moniker bestowed upon him. He knows what everyone thinks about when they think if him, and then he goes about playing along on Twitter:

By the way, before he came to the majors, he was thought of as the quiet one. 

Overall though, no one moves the needle more than Yoenis Cespedes. He’s got swagger. Say what you will about him, but he is just cool. There are people and players that have that aura. Whatever you want to call it, Cespedes had it. Speaking of which, did you see that car?!?!?

Harvey has a Maserati, and people don’t even notice it. For what it’s worth, Harvey could’ve driven a Honda Civic today. No one noticed. Do you realize how big of a person or personality you need to be to make people not notice Matt Harvey?  

That’s why the Mets own New York. They get it. They accept and return the fans’ love. They have a certain cool about them. They’re confident. They’re fun. They’re awesome on and off the field. 

That’s why the Mets own New York. 

(Photo from Mets Twitter account)

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Pepper Games Are No Longer Banned

Today finally felt like baseball is not that far away. Pitchers and Catchers have already reported. The temperature was in the 50’s. And the Mets were playing pepper:

Pepper games bring me back to when I was a kid. Back then, before teams realized they could use the area behind homeplate for advertising, there was a simple notice to everyone at Shea Stadium:

NO PEPPER GAMES

Go back and watch a classic Mets game from the 80’s. The sign is there clear as day. Remember, this was back in a day and age where you could smoke in the stands and grab a beer on the way out of the ballpark.  That’s fine as long as you don’t play pepper. 

I’m sure there was avoid reason like fan safety, but it doesn’t seem like baseball without pepper games. Whenever you watch a baseball documentary like “When It Was a Game” or Ken Burns’ “Baseball” there was the old black and white footage of players playing pepper.  

I still remember playing pepper with my Dad and brother down at the park. I remember doing it at baseball practice. I’m such a baseball nut that when the weather got nice, some friends and I would have a catch and play some pepper. When my son gets older, I plan on doing it with him. 

These are the things I look forward to with my son. When the weather gets nice, I want to have a catch with him outside. I want to pitch to him and see that lefty bat in action hitting line drives all over the place. I want to play pepper. 

Most of all right now, I’m ready for baseball. The cool Spring days to the warm Summer nights. The cold endless October evenings. Baseball season is upon us. Time to break out the mitts. Time to break out the bats. Time to get that arm warmed up to toss the call around. 

I’m ready. I know my son is as well. 

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