Musings
The strength of the Mets team this year has been their rotation. Even when they weren’t scoring runs, the rotation was able to keep it together for long enough to permit Sandy Alderson to make some moves to improve the offense.
With the Mets actually having a major league offense, they now seem intent to tempt fate and continue to mess with the rotation. They got away with it with Logan Verrett having a great game against the Rockies. Reading the tea leaves, Verrett may get another start.
Verrett did not make an appearance in last night’s game even though they needed him. Instead, we saw Eric O’Flaherty, Carlos Torres, and four outs from Tyler Clippard. Now, it appears Clippard will be unavailable tonight. If Verrett was truly available, he should’ve pitched in the eighth or ninth last night. This makes you question why he didn’t make an appearance. Was it because the Mets are giving him another start?
Another cause for suspicion is the Mets handling of the Steven Matz rehab. Initially, the Mets said they wanted to call him up on September 1st and move to a six man rotation. However, the Mets say Matz will need another rehab start before being called back up. That next start would be August 30th. This means he will first be ready to start Friday, September 4th in Miami. That leaves room for one Verrett start.
In between that time, there’s another opportunity for Verrett to start. His next time up would be tonight. If Verrett comes out of the bullpen tonight, we’ll know he’s out of the rotation. If he doesn’t, barring a Jon Niese complete game, we can reasonably assume, he’s getting another start.
The Mets may believe Verrett earned another start with his he pitched in Colorado. I think that’s faulty logic. While he pitched well, I think you only start him if you believe he’s one of your five or six best pitchers. I don’t think the Mets believe that. If that’s the case, put him in the bullpen so you don’t burn out your actual good arms like Clippard and Jeurys Familia before the playoffs.
I think the bullpen is the greater need right now, and I don’t think there is a real innings limit problem. Get Verrett in the bullpen now.
NOTE: while this is something I drafted after last night’s Mets game, it should be noted this is being published after Ryan Burdette’s excellent tweet. Since I saw this tweet, I felt the need to make this notation before publishing this post.
As I’ve said before, I’m a fan of Hahn & Humpty. I’m thrilled they’re replacing the miscast political activist Mike Lupica.
Hahn & Humpty are smart, and they talk about all sports . . . including hockey. Hahn is an old Newsday reporter, who worked the Islander and Knicks beats. He’s well connected, and he uses this to keep his listeners informed. Rick DiPietro is the former Islanders goalie, who used to drive me nuts because he seemed to only play well against the Rangers.
Together, they have good chemistry. I’ve found them to be both funny and informative. They’ll get into it with their listeners on the air and over Twitter. They understand what it means to have a radio show in 2015. They can create real competition for WFAN and Joe & Evan.
If you’re like me, you hate commercials . . . especially the Kars 4 Kids jingle. I also am diving for the dial when Joe Benigno has another Sabermetrics or Billy Beane rant. As I’ve said before, I don’t understand why Sabermetrics bothers people. You don’t like it? Great don’t bring it up on the show. It’s your show, and by extension, I’m presuming you have control over content.
Now, Hahn & Humpty is behind the eight ball everyday. First, they follow six straight non-New York, non-baseball sports talk. Joe & Evan enjoy the lead-in from Boomer & Carton, who are number one in their time slot. Joe & Evan already have a strong following and are number one in their time slot.
They also have to fend off hack attacks from hacks like Bob Raissman. Seriously, where does he come off? He has the gaul to attack they’re credibility due to Hahn’s relationship with MSG, but he fails to mention both he and Lupica work for the New York Daily News. Also, Raissman is no stranger to conflicts of interest. He appears on Daily News Live on SNY. I must’ve missed his articles criticizing this show.
I really hope ESPN Radio gives Hahn & Humpty a chance. It’s going to take a while to make a dent, but they’re certainly capable. I encourage everyone to listen for a few days. I know I will. If you’re interested, they go on the air five minutes after this post.
Before last night’s game, David Wright handed out cookies sparking the team’s offensive explosion. I know the Cookie Monster would’ve been proud.
In all seriousness, baseball is supposed to be fun. What Wright did yesterday was fun. It loosened the team up on a big night. Did it lead to the victory? Probably not. However, these are the fun things that keeps a fun season going.
What I also know that anytime there’s a chance for baseball to intersect with Sesame Street, it’s a good thing. I think we need to have the Cookie Monster at Citi Field with cookies to fuel a championship run. If we can get the Baha Men to perform “Who Let the Dogs Out?” we can get Cookie Monster to Citi Field. In fact, it’s a better option. It’ll be more fun.
We all know “C is for Cookie.” Maybe with fun things like Wright handing out cookies, C can also be for Championship.
We all knew the Mets needed to make a roster move to make room for David Wright. We all believed it was going to be Logan Verrett, who was terrific yesterday.
Nope. We were all wrong. Apparently, the Mets enjoy shortchanging the bullpen. Verrett is going to stay and Dario Alvarez is going down. The Mets got away with it last week. With the Phillies and Red Sox coming up, you can tell the Mets think they can get away with it again. The problem is they’re tempting fate in more ways than one now.
Not only are they shorting the bullpen for two days, but they may also have a rotation problem. We don’t know the severity of Bartolo Colon‘s wrist. He’s due to pitch Wednesday against the Phillies, which is also Verrett’s throw day. As we saw in Baltimore, that means Verrett will only be good for an inning. That means Colon better be alright to pitch.
If he’s not the Mets could have Matt Harvey start on Wednesday instead of Friday. I don’t think they’ll do that because it would defeat the purpose of them skipping Harvey’s start. There’s also no one on the 40 man roster who’s ready to get called up to make a spot start.
That means Colon has to start and all hands need to be on deck . . . like they needed to be on Friday. Hopefully, Verrett’s inability to go more than one inning won’t be a major problem. Hopefully, multiple innings of Sean Gilmartin and Carlos Torres won’t harm the Mets chances of winning a game in bandbox like Citizens Bank Ballpark.
No matter what’s going on, I’m starting to get a headache just trying to figure out what the Mets are doing in the bullpen.
Today is the day David Wright comes off the DL. We know he will play 3B. We don’t know much more than that.
Actually that’s not entirely true. We know Curtis Granderson will hit leadoff except when there’s a lefty in the mound. Then Juan Lagares will hit leadoff. We also know Terry Collins wants Wright batting second. We know there’s a platoon system. I also assume we know the pitcher is batting ninth. I also assume Collins will try to alternate lefties and righties in the lineup. We’ll see later today, but I presume the lineup against righties would look like this:
- Granderson RF
- Wright 3B
- Murphy 1B
- Cespedes CF
- Johnson 2B
- d’Arnaud C
- Conforto LF
- Tejada SS
- Pitcher
Against lefties, the lineup may look like this:
- Lagares CF
- Wright 3B
- Murphy 2B
- Cespedes LF
- Granderdon RF
- Cuddyer 1B
- d’Arnaud C
- Tejada SS
- Pitcher
Of course, Collins likes to tweak it here and there to get Wilmer Flores [standing ovation] some ABs. I can also see him batting Granderson second against lefties with Wright third and Murphy fifth. I also assume Anthony Recker bats eighth when he plays.
Anyway, with the rough time Collins has been having, it’s hard to completely judge how he’ll map up the lineup. This is especially evident with him batting Juan Uribe cleanup. With Wright only playing four games in a row, there will be plenty of chances to do that. Overall, the challenge is not just setting the lineup, but it’s also keeping everyone engaged. Furthermore, it’s about keeping Wright healthy.
When Lucas Duda comes BACK, there will be some real challenges getting ABs for Uribe and Johnson. If argue the real challenge them would be making sure Collins doesn’t give them regular ABs and let the best players play.
For the first time since 2008, the Mets are in a pennant race. Fans have lost their minds and started magic number counts, debating playoff rosters, and setting playoff rotations. This is a good thing, and certainly I’m not immune to it myself.
Currently, the Mets are 64-56 with a four game lead in the division. In 2008, they had the same record through 120 games and were tied for first place with the Phillies. In 2007, the Mets were 67-53 with a three game lead in the division. Long story, short, there’s nothing to celebrate yet . . . especially when those earlier Mets teams were better. Thankfully, those Phillies teams were better also.
Using straight winning percentage, the Mets are on pace for an 86-76 season. For the Nationals to tie, they would have to go 26-16 (.619). I don’t care how bad they’ve been lately; they are certainly capable of that. As I like to do at times, let’s dig a little deeper.
The Mets have 18 home games left and 24 road games left. With a home winning percentage of 66.67%, they will go 12-6 at home the rest of the way. With a road winning percentage of 38.60%, they will go 9-15 on the road the rest of the way. Adding it all up, this equates to a final record of 85-75 (not that different). Again, the Mets aren’t running away with anything.
Since August 1st, Yoenis Cespedes‘ first game with the Mets, the team has gone 11-6 (SSS Alert!), which is a fairly unsustainable winning percentage of 64.71% (over 162 games that equates to a 105-57 record). Of course, if they kept that up, they would go 27-15 the rest of the way, and the Mets will run away with the division with a 91-71 record. I can’t imagine the Nationals, no matter how talented they are, running off a 31-11 clip.
Now, it’s not really unrealistic the Mets have a terrific run to end the year. The Mets have 33 games against teams with a sub .500 record. They have gone 41-22 (.651) against those teams. There are only nine games against teams with a .500 or better record left on the schedule. This includes six against the Nationals. The Mets are 23-34 (.404) against such teams. Working the math out, the Mets will go 25-17 the rest of the way. That means the Mets will finish 89-73. This forces the Nationals to go from a .500 team to a team playing .643 ball just to tie the division.
For what it’s worth, 89-73 is how the Mets finished in 2008. They were one game worse in 2007. You know what? Those aren’t harbingers. They’re the records for completely different teams. Those Mets teams were being chased by different teams. Those seasons are in the rear view mirror. Let’s leave them there.
If we’re going to be concerned, let’s be concerned with the bullpen. Let’s be concerned with the handling of the rotation. Let’s be concerned with Terry Collins. Let’s not get ourselves concerned with the Ghost of Baseball Past.
Let’s just have fun and enjoy the ride.
I’m not the first, and I’m not going to be the last to compare David Wright and Don Mattingly. My goal today is to hopefully be a little more nuanced than a side by side comparison. Rather, I want to see exactly how back problems deteriorated Mattingly’s abilities.
Normally, I would use Lenny Dykstra as a comparable because he also has spinal stenosis. However, I don’t know if I can trust any of his stats with his steroids usage. We do know like Wright, Mattingly suffered from a low back injury. The nature of the two injuries are different, but they are both chronic problems.
It appears the problems first surfaced in 1987. In that year, Mattingly went from a 7.2 WAR to a 5.1 WAR player. In essence, he went from a superstar to an All Star player. He would then quickly deteriorate into just a “good” player. Mattingly’s back worsened in 1990, and with that he became a -0.3 player, which translates to a bad player. For the rest of his career, Mattingly would be nothing more than a solid starter. He retired at the early age of 34.
Wright has had a terrific career, arguably better than Mattingly. In 2007 and 2008, Wright was a superstar player, as per WAR. In 2009, the Mets moved to Citi Field and Wright was nothing more than a solid starter. In 2010, Wright suffered a broken back. Unlike Mattingly, Wright would rebound from his back injury to put up superstar numbers again in 2012 and 2013.
Last year, Wright regressed again. However, last year it was a shoulder injury and not a back injury. This year it was discovered that Wright has spinal stenosis. We don’t know if it’s related to the 2010 injury.
What I do know is that Wright and Mattingly are two different players. We have seen that Wright once overcame a back injury, a different back injury, to return to superstar form. Mattingly never did. So yes, both are popular New York corner infielders. Both have back injuries.
However, they are two different players with two different back injuries. We shouldn’t be comparing them to determine how the rest of Wright’s career is going to proceed. Wright is a different player and person.
I’m nervous about Wright, but after 2012 and 2013, I won’t bet against him.
Diehard fans hate the wave. Casual fans love it. Remember Mets fans, if you want the Mets to take back New York, we’re going to have to deal with the casual fan.
Personally, the wave is annoying. I like to keep score, and I always have a soda. I have to drop everything to do the wave. With that said, the reason I participate is for little kids. Since the wave is annoying, but I see its merit, I think there should be some groundrules.
RULE 1: The Wave is Always Acceptable on Camp Days
You see, little kids love the wave. They watch for it to come. They clap and cheer for it to make it. When the wave reaches its destination, everyone cheers. When it doesn’t get there, everyone boos. You won’t admit this, but at times, even the wave can be fun.
Keep that in mind for those few 12:00 day games in the weekday in the summer. Those games are for the kids. If they want to do the wave, let them do it. The idea is to let kids have fun and want them to want to come back to more games. Let them have their wave.
By extension, also allow the wave on Family Sunday or any game with a kids giveaway. However, these two days, unlike the camp games, are subject to Rules 8 & 9.
Rule 2: If There is a Kid Near You at Least Fake It
If there’s a kid near you at any game, please give the minimal effort. It doesn’t hurt you to stay in your seat and throw your hands up. At least you won’t be the jerk who killed the wave and let a kid cry. A corollary to this is if you helped kill the wave, and there is an upset kid near you, you can’t complain about the kid. You helped create the situation.
Rule 3: You Are Never Obligated to Help Start a Wave
Personally, I do not think this conflicts with the second rule. There, I only ask for minimal effort. To start the wave, you actually have to stand up and get loud. You’re not disappointing a child because the wave didn’t exist yet. If a child is upset at that, their parent either needs to try to start one, or if they are trying themself, they need to do a better job.
Rule 4: You Only Get Three Chances to Start the Wave
When you do a wave, you’re irritating a lot of people. The most annoyed people are the ones in your section. They constantly hear some idiot screaming to the top of their lungs “1! 2! 3! Ahhhh!” If it fizzles, let it die. It was never meant to be.
My suggestion is if you really want to do the wave politely go around the section and try to spread the word BETWEEN INNINGS. Tell them you’re doing it for your kid. I’m sure most people would oblige. If you try that and the wave still isn’t going, move on. These people aren’t doing it. Don’t annoy them and waste your time. Just sit back and enjoy the game.
Rule 5: You Must Be Sober When You Start the Wave
First, you have to be coherent if you want people to listen to you. Two, you don’t want to be belligerent when people don’t acquiesce. Three, if you fail and if you’re annoying people, don’t give them an excuse to get security to remove you. If you’re a jerk trying to get a wave started, security may talk to you. If security hears you’re drunk and screaming, they’ll remove you from the game. Be smart here.
Rule 6: You Must Be in LF or RF to Start the Wave
This isn’t a Choose Your Own Adventure book. The wave must only head in one direction and one direction only.
Rule 7: There Must Be a Sellout
Lets face it you’re not going to sit in the far wings of the Upper a Deck by yourself if you are, there’s no way the wave gets started. You and five friends can all stand up and hoot and holler, but the people 10 sections over won’t hear you or care.
As a corollary to this rule, you need to start the wave in the Upper Deck. I know it’s the Primenade now, but it’ll always be the Upper a Deck to me. The reason for the corollary is the Field Level costs way too much, so they’re doing what they want. The other tiers are partially obstructed views and don’t have the same effect. Keep in mind if you do your job well enough, they may join in anyway.
Rule 8: No Waves in Close Games
We’re all there to have fun, but mostly we’re there to enjoy a baseball game. If there’s a close game, chances are it’s a good one. When you stand up, it should be to cheer; not do the wave.
By extension, the earlier in the game the better . . . like the first three innings. In fact, if done properly the wave can bring some energy into the stadium. Surprisingly, the wave then might actually be a benefit by getting the crowd pumped and building some electricity for the team to feed upon.
Rule 9: No Waves in October
Ultimately, you’re there to enjoy the games. Your time to bring your kids for fun was the Spring and Summer. That’s also the time for the casual fan. October (and really September) is for the die hards. If you bring your kid to the game (I know I will), explain there is a time and place, and this is not the time and place for booing.
The die hard Mets fan has been waiting for this day for 10 years now. They’ve been desperately waiting for a Workd Series for 30 years. They’re dying for this moment. The casual fan, who so happened to get a ticket,and wants to start a wave doesn’t get a right to ruin anything for the diehard fan.
Rule 10: If Someone Ignores These Rules, You May Boo Them
Someone won’t do the wave when kids are around, boo them. Someone won’t stop trying to set up the wave, boo them. Someone tries to do a wave in October, boo them until you crush their soul.
Keep in mind, I’m only advocating booing. Never resort to insults, profanity, or name calling. Like Rule 5, don’t give someone an excuse to get you removed from a game.
Overall, let’s make it a fun environment for everyone. I know I personally treat it like life and death, but it’s only a game. It’s supposed to be fun. The next time a way comes around just go with it. Maybe letting go a little will make you feel more relaxed and enjoy the game more.
Last week, I wrote about how I thought with Michael Cuddyer coming off the DL, the Mets should’ve sent Michael Conforto down to AAA.
My belief was that a Kelly Johnson/Juan Lagares platoon would be more effective than Comforto is right now. However, with some intensive work in AAA and some adjustments, Conforto would be a terrific option in September and beyond. Overall, however, my conclusion is if Cuddyer’s healthy, he should play everyday.
I never framed my opinion as a referendum between Conforto and Eric Campbell. The first reason is my argument focused around letting Conforto play everyday. He’s not going to get better on the bench. Campbell isn’t keeping Conforto in the bench; Terry Collins is. I understand why people saw it this way because the choice was between sending down Conforto or Campbell.
My issue was what would benefit Conforto the most. I’ve had some interesting conversations since the post. I’ve found many have misstated Conforto’s stats and impact. I’ve found many who are alright with disregarding his development for the sake of 2015. Interestingly, I’ve found at least one Mets fan that believed Conforto being in New York was better for his development:
@MetsDaddy2013 @mikehiel If everyone else is going good, I would think Long would definitely have more time for young rook.
— Metstradamus (@Metstradamus) August 10, 2015
On Wednesday, I think we saw there was merit to the argument. Metstradamus made a superb point about Kevin Long, and it does seem Conforto is learning something. I mention Metstradamus here because he deserves due credit for giving an original, well thought out response as to why Conforto should stay in the majors.
However, I’ll be honest; I am still convinced I was right in calling for Conforto to be called down. I think two weeks in the minors would’ve done a great deal of good for Conforto and the Mets in September and October. Through all of this, I still maintain Conforto needs to be on the postseason roster.
The reason I think I’m still correct is Conforto barely played last week. Here is his past week:
8/11: DNP
8/12: 0-1 (PH appearance)
8/13: 2-3 with a walk and a double
8/14: 0-1 (PH appearance)
8/15: 1-4 with a homerun
8/16: DNP
8/17: off day
In a one week span, he only got 10 plate appearances, and two of those were PH opportunities. It looks like he will play Tuesday and Wednesday against the Orioles. They’re off on Thursday, and then they go to Colorado, who has three LHP in their rotation. It looks like next week could be more of the same.
Overall, I’m not shying away from my opinion even if there is a possibility I could be wrong. The funny thing is we may never know if I was wrong or right. I don’t care as much in being right as I am in Conforto’s development. He looks like a star, and I want him to be given every opportunity to become that star.
In the future, I invite everyone to debate me whether it be in the comments, on Twitter, or anywhere else. Thank you again for taking the time to read.
