Make no mistake, Brett Baty is not the reason the New York Mets lost 12 straight games. Rather, it is the thought process that has led to Baty’s consistent playing time that is the reason the Mets have grossly underachieved.

This season, Baty is has a 36 wRC+. He’s hitting .209/.214/.284. He was the last qualified hitter to draw a walk, and he’s 2-for-his last 26. He’s bad.

Here’s the dirty little secret: this is no outlier. This is who he is.

At the trade deadline last year, the Mets reportedly refused to send Baty to the Chicago White Sox for Luis Robert Jr. At the time, Baty was hitting a robust .277/.284/.404.

That led to the Mets pivoting to trade for Cedric Mullins, who hit .182/.284/.281 for the Mets. While we can point to Robert’s numbers that year, Mullins was equally bad with no real hope of upside.

The Mets set part of the stages for their collapse by holding onto Baty who didn’t even have a .700 OPS. Moreover, entering the 2025 season, Baty had a career .607 OPS.

The obvious justification for the Mets decision is going to be Baty’s August. From August 2 – September 2, Baty hit .346/.418/.519. It seemed like promise FINALLY fulfilled.

Digging through the numbers, Baty had a highly unsustainable .407 BABIP. His 91.7 MPH exit velocities were roughly Major League average, and he had a 61.9 GB%.

These numbers screamed regression risk. We saw just that at the end of the season. From September 3 – 26, Baty hit ..255/.296/.471. Even more troubling, those numbers were buoyed by a .345 BABIP.

Instead of focusing on all of Baty’s career, his numbers before the trade deadline, or the final 18 games of the season, the Mets focused on that sweet, sweet 24 game sample size.

It is the epitome of conformation bias. The Mets looked at some underlying data, and they decided those 24 games were indicative of what Baty is whole disregarding the other 278 games.

Relying on their confirmation bias, the Mets handed Baty an everyday role, albeit one that saw him move between three positions. He was handed a job based off a great 21 game stretch.

The other 109 games were of zero consequence. There were people in the Mets organization who believe in Baty, and they used 21 games to justify giving him a starting role.

The end result has been the worst hitter on the Mets. We have seen him bad in right and worse at first base. He can’t hit enough to hit for a pitcher, so DH is out.

Looking at all the numbers, Baty has a bad career 7.3 BB%. He’s got an awful 26.2 K%. There’s no underlying exit velocity hope as Baty has a terrible 19.8 LD% and 51.7 GB%.

And yet, the Mets couldn’t wait to sideline Mark Vientos off a 27 HR season to play Baty last year. They entered this year guaranteeing him an everyday role.

The 2025 Mets were a massive disappointment. This year seems poised to be worse. It’s not Brett Baty’s fault. The fault is the process being utilized to determine Baty is an everyday player who should not be removed from the lineup no matter the results.