Brett Baty
David Stearns made his first real foray into free agency signing RHP Luis Severino and INF Joey Wendle. These were curious moves to say the least.
Severino, 29, was dreadful last season, and he really hasn’t returned to his All-Star form after his 2020 Tommy John surgery. That said, there was hope in 2022.
In 2022, he was 7-3 with a 3.18 ERA, 1.000 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9, and a 9.9 K/9. Over his 19 starts, he had a 124 ERA+ and a 3.70 FIP.
Last year was a disaster. He had a 65 ERA+ and a 6.14 FIP. The caveat is he dealt with injuries which likely impacted his performance.
On that, Severino dealt with a lat strain in 2022 and an oblique in 2023. As we saw with Max Scherzer, the Mets struggled to deal with these types of pitcher injuries the past few years.
All that said, one year $13 million is a worthwhile gamble. That goes double with Jeremy Hefner as pitching coach and Stearns ability to build a pitching staff.
With Severino slotted for the back of the rotation, this makes sense. It makes more sense with the Mets needing to completely build a rotation.
Where things go awry is Wendle.
Wendle is coming off a year where he had a 47 wRC+ and a -3 OAA. He turns 34 in April, and unsurprisingly, he’s past his prime and in decline.
His wRC+ declined four straight years. The OAA dropped three straight years. He had seen his sprint speed drop three straight years before marginally rebounding last year.
Maybe he rebounds defensively, but he’s also going to be 34. He’s also literally slowing down If you’re betting on a defensive bounce back from a player, Luis Guillorme was a better bet.
However, the Mets non-tendered Guillorme. They then gave Wendle $2 million. It’s not a lot of money, but it’s a roster spot guaranteed to a player who should’ve been a minor league signing.
The hope is Wendle NEVER plays. The same would’ve been true if Guillorme stayed.
Ideally, Ronny Mauricio is the everyday second or third baseman. Jeff McNeil returns well from Tommy John. Brett Baty, Mark Vientos, or Mauricio are the answer at third.
Of course, it’s plausible all of the above fails. Also, let’s never speak of Francisco Lindor getting injured. Taking all that into account, Wendle is not the answer. He can never be the answer.
Whatever the case, it’s still early with plenty of difference making players available. We should wait to see the entire picture come to focus before fully judging even with this being an unspectacular and curious start.
Earlier in the season, there was a debate amongst New York Mets fans on Mark Vientos. One camp said he’s done nothing in his 2-3 stints in the majors, and as a result, he probably isn’t going to be in the Mets future plans, and/or he’s not going to be a quality Major League player.
The other camp pointed to the sporadic playing time from Buck Showalter serving as an impediment to his being able to have success. At a minimum, the argument was he has to get an extended run to see what he could be. Well, with the Mets being out of it, and Showalter finally acquiescing, Vientos has gotten that extended look, and he has taken off:
https://x.com/Metsmerized/status/1704654931389530574?s=20
Since August 29, Vientos is hitting .307/.349/.581 with a triple, five homers, and nine RBI. On the season, he is averaging an exit velocity of 93.6 MPH. Among players with 100 balls batted in play, Vientos leads the Mets, and he is fifth overall in the majors. (Anthony DiComo, mlb.com).
Keep in mind, his strikeout rate has stabilized to a more manageable 27% over this stretch. As Vientos has shown throughout his professional career, he can lower that number with more experience and adjustments.
With Vientos hitting the ball this hard and with this much power, he is earning a spot on the Mets 2024 roster.
For sure, there are going to be some complications. Pete Alonso blocks him at first. The Mets may go get Shohei Ohtani, who could be their DH as they await his return to the mound post Tommy John surgery. That leaves third base for him.
Admittedly, Vientos is the weakest defensive option there, but he has shown progress this season. His -1 OAA is a step in the right direction even if it is a very small sample size. Of note, this is a team with Eric Chavez as a coach, which would have you think he has the perfect mentor to get him up to speed at the position.
Part of the challenge there is Brett Baty is better regarded, but he has done nothing this season to prove he is ready. Moreover, he has been outplayed by Vientos all year.
The next challenge is Ronny Mauricio. With Mauricio, he too is proving he should be part of the Mets 2024 Opening Day roster.
Mauricio has played 16 games, and he is hitting .300/.354/.400 with three doubles, a homer, and seven RBI. He is also a perfect 6/6 in stolen base attempts. Overall, he is showing he is ready for the majors, and he needs to play everyday next season.
Where he plays is up for some debate. He is blocked at short by Francisco Lindor. That leaves second and third. While Jeff McNeil has been the team’s second baseman, he has the versatility to move to the outfield to allow Mauricio to man second.
Of course, there is a thought Mauricio was always best suited for third. That said, Mauricio has looked quite good at second base since the promotion.
https://x.com/SNYtv/status/1704670335340363982?s=20
He combined with McNeil on a cut off to cut down Jazz Chisholm Jr.trying to stretch a single into a double. He would also impress Keith Hernandez by his standing his ground and releasing a strong throw to turn a double play.
To some degree, it is not so much a matter of preference for where you want Mauricio to play. It is more what is best for the Mets. If Mauricio is playing second well and hitting, they should allow third base to be open for one of Baty or Vientos to play there. At the moment, Vientos has won that job, and he has a whole offseason to improve there.
In the end, Vientos and Mauricio have gotten the opportunity they have pushed for all season. Both are thriving, and they are leading the Mets to play the role of spoilers. They need to be rewarded for it by being penciled in as 2024 Opening Day starters.
Even though it was something that needed to happen months ago, all four of the Baby Mets (there needs to be a better nickname than this) are finally on the roster. When looking at each player, it is difficult to grade them out partially because Buck Showalter hasn’t been too eager to play them, and for some reason, he thinks it is more important to play his older players against the teams fighting for the postseason.
With all the caveats and mind and with some injury issues, now is a good time to take a look at where the Baby Mets stand in their first real season in the Major Leagues:
Francisco Álvarez
Stats: .215/.292/.435, 9 2B, 22 HR, 51 RBI
When you look at Álvarez, you see a star in the making. Defensively, he has been phenomenal and has been one of the best framers in all of baseball. He’s been better than advertised, and you see the pitchers praise of him was not all team driven propogranda.
At the plate, he was a middle of the order hitter through July, but his production has completely fallen off. There are reasons for this. First and foremost, he’s never come close to playing these many games, and as a corollary to this, the Mets are playing him more sporadically to combat the fatigue that has set in.
In the end, he looks like a cornerstone player. Don’t let him limping to the end as he’s far surpassed his games played high fool you. We should see him as an All-Star and maybe even the MVP conversation as soon as next season.
Brett Baty
Stats: 208/.279/.314. 11 2B, 7 HR, 29 RBI, 2 SB
The short answer is the Mets failed Baty. He should have been on the Opening Day roster. He was called up quickly, and in the beginning, he was terrific hitting ..319/.385/.511 over his first 15 games.
Then, disaster set in. Over his next 71 games, he hit .195/.270/.294. He regressed in every aspect of his game, including his defense where he went from a position OAA to a -4 OAA.
After waiting way too long to demote Baty, he went to Syracuse where he began hitting again. Over 17 games, he hit .246/.329/.493. After that he was promoted back to the majors, where he has hit .143/.172/.143 since the most recent call-up.
Behind the problems are a 27.9 K% and a 49.1 GB%. He’s hit the ball hard at times, but nowhere near at the rate he did in the minors. Moreover, he’s just not barreling the ball up.
Sooner rather than later, the Mets need to figure out the disconnect between the Mets and Syracuse. That applies to both offense and defense. More than that, they need to be less tied down to the notion Baty is the third baseman of the present and maybe even the future.
Ronny Mauricio
Stats: .313/.353/.375, 2 2B, 3 RBI, 4 SB
When looking at Mauricio, you have to question why the hell were the Mets keeping him in the minors for so long. The answer is complicated as there were issues with defense away from short, and Mauricio never did develop any plate discipline. There was also a minor ankle injury.
That said, Mauricio has been unfazed by the promotion. In fact, he’s doing what he did in Triple-A, albeit without the same power numbers . . . yet. Keep in mind, in his first at-bat with the Mets, he had the hardest hit ball in team history during the StatCast Era.
He’s looked awkward at second, but he does have a 1 OAA (small sample size alert). On the bases, while he’s sprint speed is rather pedestrian, he’s stealing bases and taking the extra base when he has the chance.
It’s way too soon to try to guess what he is as a player in the long or short term. The only thing we can say is he needed to put up here instead of the likes of Danny Mendick back when the Mets were trying to salvage this season.
Mark Vientos
Stats: .199/.245/.325, 5 2B, 3B, 4 HR, 13 RBI
Look, the Mets have gone out of their way time and again to let Vientos (and the fans) know how little they value him. In his first call-up, despite a hot start, he was sat because of the whims of Showalter and the need to get Daniel Vogelbach‘s non-producing bat into the lineup.
Like with many young players, he struggled with the limited playing time, and he was eventually sent back down. As a result, he has underperformed, and we still don’t quite know what he can be.
What we do know is he hits the ball very hard, and he shows power to the opposite field. He does have a high strikeout rate. He’s been better than advertised at third even if he’s not really all that good there. He has impressed in limited time at first, but Pete Alonso is there, so forget that.
In the end, one of the biggest mistakes the Mets made in this lost season was not using their time to figure out what Vientos could be. Part of that could be the injured wrist. Most of it was allowing their manager get in the way of what was best for the franchise in the short and long term.
2024 Outlook
The Mets can do a number of things this offseason, which will forever change the outlook of the roster and this group of young players. That all said, it’s clear Álvarez will be the Opening Day catcher.
At the moment, barring some precipitous drop-off, Mauricio will factor into the Opening Day roster as the team’s everyday second baseman. That will likely push Jeff McNeil to left field.
After that, if the Mets were being smart, it would be a third base competition between Baty and Vientos. If the Mets are being honest, Vientos should be ahead, but it seems they made their mind up two years ago that Baty was the guy. Perhaps, that will all change when the team finally hires a President of Baseball Operations.
The New York Mets delayed it longer than needed, but they eventually called up Ronny Mauricio. So far, he has been electrifying giving a jolt to the team and the fanbase. We saw that in his first at-bat when he hit an unreal 117 MPH double off of Seattle Mariners starter Logan Gilbert:
First career hit
Double for Mauricio pic.twitter.com/zfFV3qrS6f
— Mets Daddy (@MetsDaddy2013) September 1, 2023
That was the hardest hit ball by a Mets player in the Statcast Era. Yes, that was hit harder than anything off the bat of Pete Alonso, That’s how you know how special the power and bat could be for Mauricio. That’s why he’s been getting Alfonso Soriano comps from Keith Law.
On the weekend, his first weekend in the majors, he was 5-for-11 with that double and two strikeouts. He would score a run and would go 2/2 in stolen base attempts. All-in-all, it was better than you possibly could’ve imagined his debut to be.
The question for Mauricio is what is next?
Not to downplay his first few games, but he was characteristically over-aggressive at the plate. When he took a pitch, it appeared more like he was taking all the way rather than his showing any real plate discipline. He did not walk and only had one three ball count.
In the all too early tally, he whiffed on half of the breaking balls he saw. He destroyed the fastball. He hit the ball on the ground a lot.
Defensively, he didn’t look comfortable at second. Again, it’s too early, but per Baseball Savant, he’s a -1 OAA already. It should be noted here his defense was an issue in Syracuse. Already, Buck Showalter said Mauricio will get looks at third and left field.
Being excited as a fan, it looks like Mauricio is here to stay. Maybe, he is. However, we also thought that with Brett Baty, and that has not turned out well this season.
Mauricio is currently riding high after a strong weekend at the plate. That was all the more impressive considering the Mariners pitching staff leads the majors in FIP. Perhaps, he is going to take another leap forward as the Mets are set to play the Washington Nationals, who own the second worst FIP in the majors.
However, at some point, things will get more difficult. The Minnesota Twins (sixth in FIP), Miami Marlins (ninth in FIP), and Philadelphia Phillies (fifth in FIP) have strong pitching staffs. They will also have some video and data on Mauricio allowing them to adjust and pitch him tougher.
Put another way, the league is going to adjust, and we will get to see how Mauricio responds. If he holds his own, the Mets have an important piece of the puzzle for next season. If not, Mauricio is back in limbo. This will make September an important month for the Mets giving fans all the more reason to watch.
You knew it was coming. After two good games where Mark Vientos was 3-for-6, he was 0-for-3 with two strikeouts.
In the top of the eighth, the New York Mets were trailing 6-1 with two on and two out. A big swing would get the Mets back into it.
Naturally, Buck Showalter turned to Daniel Vogelbach with his .361 SLG and all of six homers on the season. To his credit, Vogelbach battled (cue Art Howe) in an 11 pitch at-bat, but ultimately, he struck out like we all expected he would.
Therein lies the problem for the Mets this season, and it’s something that needs to be addressed for now and as the Mets look towards 2024.
It’s not worth re-litigating the Vogelbach for Colin Holderman trade and it’s after effects. We’re now at what is best for the Mets, and when assessing it, this is all about Vogelbach’s performance.
Before Vientos was first called up, Vogelbach was hitting .250/.376/.369 with four doubles, two homers, and 13 RBI. This was one of the reasons the Mets felt compelled to call up Vientos.
From May 17 – June 18, both Vientos and Vogelbach were on the roster with Vogelbach getting the majority of the playing tone. Over that stretch, Vogelbach hit .122/.280/.220 with a double, homer, and two RBI. This time frame included the one week stretch where Vogelbach sat for a week to mentally reset and get going again.
Despite Vogelbach regressing, the Mets decided Vientos should go down with Vogelbach “resuming” the primary DH duties. He certainly didn’t improve despite Showalter continuing to lean on him.
In the time Vientos was back in Triple-A, Vogelbach hit .259/.298/.409 with two doubles, two homers, and 11 RBI. As we can see with the declining OBP, Vogelbach has not only stopped hitting, but he has also stopped walking.
All told, Vogelbach is hitting .224/.330/.361 with seven doubles, six homers, and 28 RBI. He has a -0.2 WAR, 93 OPS+, and a 98 wRC+.
For a position where your only job is hitting, Vogelbach isn’t. He’s below average. This season, Major League DHs have a combined 106 wRC+. Vogelbach is behind that mark while simultaneously driving it down.
The same can be said for the Mets. Even with Vogelbach getting the vast majority of starts at DH, the team has been at league average with a 106 wRC+. That means the Mets other options have greatly outperformed Vogelbach.
The caveat is Vientos hasn’t been one of those players outperforming Vogelbach. In his limited and disjointed playing time, he has truly struggled as evidenced by his 41 wRC+ this season.
However, Vientos has been hitting in Triple-A with regular playing time. With Syracuse, he has a 141 wRC+ displaying power only Pete Alonso can match (from a Mets organizational standpoint).
At the moment, the Mets are 46-53. They’re 18.5 games back of the Atlanta Braves and 7.5 games back of the last Wild Card. They’re at a point where they’re looking to sell.
When you look at trade pieces, no one wants Vogelbach. There’s zero reason why the Mets would try to showcase him. It’s over and done, and it’s time to move forward.
That said, there is reason to try to showcase Vientos. He’s blocked at first by Alonso and at third by Brett Baty. That leaves the DH spot for him as the Mets head to an offseason where they plan on heavily pursuing Shohei Ohtani.
If the Mets get Ohtani, that puts them in a spot where they need to start looking to trade Vientos. If Vientos goes on a tear, his trade value increases.
If they don’t get Ohtani, it would look like Vientos is one of the options they should look towards for 2024. Getting him more up to speed with a longer look would give then more of a sense as to whether Vientos should get the job next year.
All told, Vogelbach has hurt the team this year and will not be in the Mets plans next year. The Mets 2024 plans at DH at least partially hinge on Vientos or what the Mets want to do with him.
The team is past the point where they need to make the switch. They need to take Vogelbach away from Showalter and start Vientos at DH the rest of the season.
Just when you got good vibes going with the New York Mets winning six in a row to open July, they enter the All Star Break losing two in a row. The Saturday loss wasn’t that bad as you knew it was going to be a tough game.
The Mets started David Peterson, who battled and kept the Mets in the game. They had Pete Alonso and Francisco Alvarez up as the tying run in the ninth, but Josh Hader was better. You tip your cap and move onto the next game.
The next game was the real problem.
After what seemed like a resurgence, Max Scherzer again wasn’t good. The struggling Manny Machado tagged him with a three run homer in the first inning. This wouldn’t prove to be one of those get the ace early because he’ll shut you down moments because Machado would hit a two run homer against Scherzer in the fifth.
The Mets offense sputtered, and this time Joe Musgrove didn’t need an oil slick on his ears to do it.
Tommy Pham went down with an injury. Buck Showalter made sure to bat one of his old Baltimore Orioles, DJ Stewart, above Alvarez and Brett Baty. Really, no one was particularly good on the day, and Brandon Nimmo continues to be mired in an 0-for-20 stretch. He’s also 3-for-30 in July.
To a certain extent, these last two games might have caused fans needless hand-wringing. We did get a little excited with the winning streak, especially with it coming against good teams. We thought there might be a glimmer of hope that the Mets were getting back into the race. With the way the starting pitching was going, there was good reason for it.
As it stands now, the Mets are 18.5 games back of the Atlanta Braves. They are also seven games back in the Wild Card. They trail five teams for that last Wild Card spot including the San Diego Padres who leaped ahead of the Mets after this series.
It’s too much to say this series ended the season. After all, their putrid June probably did that. Rather, this might’ve just been another nail in the coffin. No, it’s not over, and we have seen stranger things happen (1973, 2016). However, it is a series like this that should have us temper our expectations until further notice.