Cedric Mullins
Make no mistake, Brett Baty is not the reason the New York Mets lost 12 straight games. Rather, it is the thought process that has led to Baty’s consistent playing time that is the reason the Mets have grossly underachieved.
This season, Baty is has a 36 wRC+. He’s hitting .209/.214/.284. He was the last qualified hitter to draw a walk, and he’s 2-for-his last 26. He’s bad.
Here’s the dirty little secret: this is no outlier. This is who he is.
At the trade deadline last year, the Mets reportedly refused to send Baty to the Chicago White Sox for Luis Robert Jr. At the time, Baty was hitting a robust .277/.284/.404.
That led to the Mets pivoting to trade for Cedric Mullins, who hit .182/.284/.281 for the Mets. While we can point to Robert’s numbers that year, Mullins was equally bad with no real hope of upside.
The Mets set part of the stages for their collapse by holding onto Baty who didn’t even have a .700 OPS. Moreover, entering the 2025 season, Baty had a career .607 OPS.
The obvious justification for the Mets decision is going to be Baty’s August. From August 2 – September 2, Baty hit .346/.418/.519. It seemed like promise FINALLY fulfilled.
Digging through the numbers, Baty had a highly unsustainable .407 BABIP. His 91.7 MPH exit velocities were roughly Major League average, and he had a 61.9 GB%.
These numbers screamed regression risk. We saw just that at the end of the season. From September 3 – 26, Baty hit ..255/.296/.471. Even more troubling, those numbers were buoyed by a .345 BABIP.
Instead of focusing on all of Baty’s career, his numbers before the trade deadline, or the final 18 games of the season, the Mets focused on that sweet, sweet 24 game sample size.
It is the epitome of conformation bias. The Mets looked at some underlying data, and they decided those 24 games were indicative of what Baty is whole disregarding the other 278 games.
Relying on their confirmation bias, the Mets handed Baty an everyday role, albeit one that saw him move between three positions. He was handed a job based off a great 21 game stretch.
The other 109 games were of zero consequence. There were people in the Mets organization who believe in Baty, and they used 21 games to justify giving him a starting role.
The end result has been the worst hitter on the Mets. We have seen him bad in right and worse at first base. He can’t hit enough to hit for a pitcher, so DH is out.
Looking at all the numbers, Baty has a bad career 7.3 BB%. He’s got an awful 26.2 K%. There’s no underlying exit velocity hope as Baty has a terrible 19.8 LD% and 51.7 GB%.
And yet, the Mets couldn’t wait to sideline Mark Vientos off a 27 HR season to play Baty last year. They entered this year guaranteeing him an everyday role.
The 2025 Mets were a massive disappointment. This year seems poised to be worse. It’s not Brett Baty’s fault. The fault is the process being utilized to determine Baty is an everyday player who should not be removed from the lineup no matter the results.
At the trade deadline, the New York Mets acquired Cedric Mullins from the Baltimore Orioles. While widely praised, it was a move that did not really improve the Mets.
The Cedric Mullins of 2021-2022 was a star who left an impression. Truth is, he was only at that level for two years. The subsequent two years he went to serviceable to a bench level player this year.
The player the Mets acquired has a 0.1 WAR, 101 wRC+, and a 2 OAA. This is the player the Mets acquired due to the season ending injury to Jose Siri and the struggles of Tyrone Taylor.
With respect to Taylor, he has a 0.6 WAR, 55 wRC+, and a 4 OAA. As we saw, it was diminishing returns at the plate for Taylor. He is much better suited as a defensive replacement and platoon bat against left-handed pitchers.
Seeing that, the Mets moved Jeff McNeil to CF. The results have been quite positive. In limited duty in center, he has a 0 OAA. He’s already made some highlight plays.
Offensively, he has a 123 wRC+. He gives the most value at the plate for a Mets offense that seemingly can’t get out of their own way.
McNeil was holding his own in center and improving. That said, he was obviously better defensively at second where he has a 3 OAA. He’s excellent there, and moving him off the position creates a problem.
The Mets solution was Brett Baty. Baty has a -1 OAA at second, and he has a 96 wRC+. This right here is the problem.
With Taylor’s struggles, the Mets have overplayed Baty. With consistent playing time, Baty has shown himself to be a below average bat and below average defender at second base.
The bigger issue with Baty is he’s slipping defensively as evidenced by his 10th inning costly error against the Cleveland Guardians. He was once at a 4 OAA, and he’s slipped to a 2 OAA.
Like Taylor, the Mets needed to find a way to get Baty out of the everyday lineup. The answer could have been Ronny Mauricio, but the Mets didn’t fully go that route.
Mauricio has been superior to Baty with a 104 wRC+ and a 6 OAA at third. With his slow foot speed, he’s actually worse at second than Baty.
Mark Vientos has started hitting again, and he is one of the few bats in this lineup that can carry the offense. He’s been hitting well since July 10, and he’s had a number of clutch hits.
Given his defensive limitations, he should be the primary DH with occasional spells at third. That should leave third for Mauricio.
That is what the Mullins trade afforded the Mets. They can put their best team on the field. It’s now up to David Stearns and Carlos Mendoza to do it.
McNeil is the everyday second baseman. That improves the lineup and defense. With Mauricio at third and Mullins in center, Baty moves to the bench.
That defense with Vientos at DH is the Mets optimal lineup. Against left-handed pitchers, they can pivot by getting Taylor into the lineup, and even with Mauricio being a switch hitter, they can play Vientos at third with Starling Marte as the DH.
But make no mistake, the Mets are a better team with Baty as a quality bench player. He can provide late inning defense or a pinch hitting opportunity when needed. That’s when he is at his best.
This is what the Mullins trade afforded the Mets. They can now optimally use their roster. It’s now just time the Mets started doing that.