Luis Robert Jr.
Make no mistake, Brett Baty is not the reason the New York Mets lost 12 straight games. Rather, it is the thought process that has led to Baty’s consistent playing time that is the reason the Mets have grossly underachieved.
This season, Baty is has a 36 wRC+. He’s hitting .209/.214/.284. He was the last qualified hitter to draw a walk, and he’s 2-for-his last 26. He’s bad.
Here’s the dirty little secret: this is no outlier. This is who he is.
At the trade deadline last year, the Mets reportedly refused to send Baty to the Chicago White Sox for Luis Robert Jr. At the time, Baty was hitting a robust .277/.284/.404.
That led to the Mets pivoting to trade for Cedric Mullins, who hit .182/.284/.281 for the Mets. While we can point to Robert’s numbers that year, Mullins was equally bad with no real hope of upside.
The Mets set part of the stages for their collapse by holding onto Baty who didn’t even have a .700 OPS. Moreover, entering the 2025 season, Baty had a career .607 OPS.
The obvious justification for the Mets decision is going to be Baty’s August. From August 2 – September 2, Baty hit .346/.418/.519. It seemed like promise FINALLY fulfilled.
Digging through the numbers, Baty had a highly unsustainable .407 BABIP. His 91.7 MPH exit velocities were roughly Major League average, and he had a 61.9 GB%.
These numbers screamed regression risk. We saw just that at the end of the season. From September 3 – 26, Baty hit ..255/.296/.471. Even more troubling, those numbers were buoyed by a .345 BABIP.
Instead of focusing on all of Baty’s career, his numbers before the trade deadline, or the final 18 games of the season, the Mets focused on that sweet, sweet 24 game sample size.
It is the epitome of conformation bias. The Mets looked at some underlying data, and they decided those 24 games were indicative of what Baty is whole disregarding the other 278 games.
Relying on their confirmation bias, the Mets handed Baty an everyday role, albeit one that saw him move between three positions. He was handed a job based off a great 21 game stretch.
The other 109 games were of zero consequence. There were people in the Mets organization who believe in Baty, and they used 21 games to justify giving him a starting role.
The end result has been the worst hitter on the Mets. We have seen him bad in right and worse at first base. He can’t hit enough to hit for a pitcher, so DH is out.
Looking at all the numbers, Baty has a bad career 7.3 BB%. He’s got an awful 26.2 K%. There’s no underlying exit velocity hope as Baty has a terrible 19.8 LD% and 51.7 GB%.
And yet, the Mets couldn’t wait to sideline Mark Vientos off a 27 HR season to play Baty last year. They entered this year guaranteeing him an everyday role.
The 2025 Mets were a massive disappointment. This year seems poised to be worse. It’s not Brett Baty’s fault. The fault is the process being utilized to determine Baty is an everyday player who should not be removed from the lineup no matter the results.
Well, no one is whining over losing Brandon Nimmo, Pete Alonso, and Jeff McNeil. David Stearns has drastically and dramatically remade the New York Mets into possibly the best team in baseball.
They recently made huge additions with Bo Bichette and Louis Robert Jr. (two moves requiring overdue posts). Stearns then took a big swing trading for Freddy Peralta and Tobias Myers.
People will say Peralta was needed because the Mets rotation was bad. They were very wrong. That said, Peralta is a very good pitcher, and when you can add a very good pitcher, you do it.
Peralta makes the Mets rotation better in so many ways.
He was 24th in the majors in innings pitched, and he’s made 30+ starts in three consecutive years. He was 17th in the majors in FIP and 15th in WAR. He was seventh in ERA and eighth in ERA+.
While you may uncomfortable calling him an ace, he’s a number one starter. It’s a fact. When there are 30 MLB teams are you’re top 25 and better in most categories, you’re a number one.
When a team adds a number one starter, it dramatically improves their outlook. Go back to 2000. Mike Hampton wasn’t an ace, but he was a true number one, and he was a big piece that helped the Mets win the pennant.
Peralta may not even be the Mets best starter. That is probably Nolan McLean. It’s hard to find a better 1-2 in baseball than Peralta-McLean . . . or McLean-Peralta.
Speaking of McLean, this makes him and the whole rotation better. At the moment, the Mets have six starters. This gives McLean an extra day of rest to help him get through his first full MLB season.
Kodai Senga has been better with an extra day of rest, and now, he gets it. David Peterson and Clay Holmes wore down from the increased workload, and now, they also get an extra day. Sean Manaea also gets a needed extra day.
They just didn’t get better by adding Peralta. They got better because the six man rotation makes the entire rotation better. They’re getting the best out of all their starters, which is very bad news for the National League.
Senga and Peterson have been All-Stars. Manaea was a top of the rotation pitcher for a team that went to the NLCS. McLean’s ceiling is as high as we’ve ever seen. They’re now all positioned to be at their best making them arguably the best rotation in baseball.
Keep in mind, Peralta was not the only pitcher the Mets obtained. They also received Myers, a pitcher who is not even arbitration eligible until after the 2027 season.
Myers has been a dominant reliever in his brief Major League career. If you go back to that 2024 Game 3, he absolutely dominated the Mets and appeared to be the game winning pitcher until Alonso did what he did.
Myers may still yet be a starter. He could be a future closer. He’s the Mets 2026 version of Seth Lugo. That’s a dangerous pitcher to have on your staff, and Myers is probably better.
Now, the Mets paid an understandably steep price for Peralta and Myers. In fact, ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel explains the Mets trading Jett Williams and Brandon Sproat moved them from the top farm system to sixth best. Ironically, the Brewers moved from sixth to first.
There will be some who try to nitpick the prospects. We can point to Sproat’s struggles at Triple-A and his four Major League starts. We shouldn’t be doing that.
Sproat has a bright future ahead of him. After all, he made his MLB debut a year after being drafted. He could’ve been a big piece for the Mets in 2026.
Williams is a top prospect. He has a real future at second, short, or CF. He’s got speed and power in his bat. Losing him hurts, and it takes away insurance for the 35 year old Marcus Semien and injury prone players like Bichette and Robert.
The Mets can soon come to regret this trade, especially with Peralta being a year away from free agency. That makes this a real gamble and a worthwhile one at that.
Peralta improves the Mets rotation and improves the entire pitching staff. Myers makes the Mets deeper. If Myers is in the bullpen, this could be the best staff in the entire Major Leagues.
The Mets officially went all-in. They’ve built a team better than the 2025 Mets, and it could be the best this century. Time will tell. Whatever happens, it’ll be because the Mets made the very bold move to add Peralta to make the Mets the one team who can dethrone the Dodgers.