Noah Syndergaard
After needlessly trading Steven Matz to the Toronto Blue Jays an missing out on Trevor Bauer, the Mets are left looking for a depth starting pitcher. Ideally, they want a pitcher who can both allow them to have David Peterson start the year in Triple-A and push Joey Lucchesi when Noah Syndergaard is ready to return to the rotation.
There are still a few options available. There is James Paxton who is coming back from injury and seems eternally injury prone. There is also Taijuan Walker who has had poor velocity and spin on his pitches. The Mets are also talking with Jake Arrieta who has not been the same since leaving the Chicago Cubs.
Seeing the lengths to which the Mets are going to find that one extra starter, you do wonder how long it will take before they consider bringing back Rick Porcello. While it may not be a popular decision, it would be a decision that would make a lot of sense for the Mets.
Let’s get the obvious out of the way – Porcello was bad in 2020. In 12 starts, Porcello was 1-7 with a 5.64 ERA and a 1.508 WHIP. He had a career worst 75 ERA+, and he allowed a 11.3 hits per nine. By nearly every measure, this was the worst season of Porcello’s career, and for many, this happening with Porcello being 31 was an indication he was effectively done being a Major League caliber starting pitcher.
Before addressing that, we should consider his August 5 start. In that game, Porcello earned his one and only win as a member of the Mets. Over seven innings, he would allow one earned on five hits while walking none and striking out four. Aside from his winning that game, there was something else unique and important about that game. In that game, the Mets had Luis Guillorme and Andres Gimenez up the middle, and they were flashing the leather.
That game was an important reminder Porcello is a sinkerball pitcher who pitches to contact. Really, he wasn’t a different pitcher in that game as he was in most of the season. The real difference was the defense behind him.
Again, the Mets defense was terrible in most of 2020. In fact, their -22 DRS was the fifth worst in the majors. That’s one of the reasons why Mets pitchers had a .316 BABIP which was the fourth worst in the majors. All told, the Mets defense was horrible, and it severely impacted not just their pitching, but it really derailed their season. It’s at this point we should revisit Porcello’s 2020 season.
Despite the poor results, Porcello had a 3.33 FIP which is indicative of him pitching SIGNIFICANTLY better than his final 2020 results indicated. Over at Baseball Savant, Porcello posted very good exit velocity numbers and was middle of the pack in terms of hard hit rate. Despite that, he yielded an absurdly high .373 BABIP, which was not just the worst of his career by a preposterous margin, but it was also well above his .308 career mark.
Keep in mind, Porcello generated the weakest contact he ever has in his career, and he did that in what was a Mets schedule facing a number of very good offensive teams. He also had the best HR/9 and HR/FB rate of his career. All told, there was absolutely no reason why Porcello should have had a poor year. He induced weak contact, and he was keeping the ball in the ballpark.
Well, no reason except for the atrocious Mets defense. Keep in mind most of the batted balls against him went to the left side of the Mets infield. As we know, that defense has been significantly improved with the addition of Francisco Lindor‘s Gold Glove caliber defense at shortstop, and it will be further improve by having literally anyone other than J.D. Davis at third base.
Suddenly, not matter who is on the mound, those soft balls hit on the left side of the infield will be the sure outs they should have been. Also, those 50/50 balls will suddenly turn in the Mets favor. Maybe, just maybe, they will start getting to some of those balls few teams could ever turn into outs. Put another way, this is now a Mets team built to allow Porcello to be a successful starter.
Keeping in mind Porcello grew up a Mets fan and would be driven for redemption, a reunion could make a lot of sense. This is a Mets team built for him defensively, and this is a rotation in need of just one more starter to sure it up. All told, the Mets should now be looking towards Porcello instead of considering the likes of Arrieta.
So, the Mets didn’t get Trevor Bauer. Instead, Bauer went to his hometown Los Angeles Dodgers for what might’ve been less money. Despite Bauer really not being better than the Mets fifth best starter, the over the top criticism started:
— Sal Licata (@sal_licata) February 5, 2021
https://twitter.com/bmonzoradio/status/1357780681670205441?s=21
This is just scratching the surface of what we find at the bottom of the barrel. For their sake, you hope this is just schtick because these are purely horrid opinions.
Yes, we all know the Mets didn’t get Bauer, J.T. Realmuto, or George Springer. Instead, they got better players and a much deeper roster. In fact, just look at who they signed/acquired so far this offseason:
- Francisco Lindor
- Carlos Carrasco
- Marcus Stroman
- James McCann
- Trevor May
- Sam McWilliams
- Aaron Loup
- Joey Lucchesi
- Jordan Yamamoto
That doesn’t include interesting depth options like Jerry Blevins, Jerad Eickhoff, Jose Martinez, Mallex Smith, Jose Peraza, and Arodys Vizcaino. There are other moves made on top of that.
We’ve also just learned with the Bauer bidding the Mets have at least $40 million they can invest in the 2021 team. It can also be used to extend players like Michael Conforto, Lindor, Stroman, and Noah Syndergaard.
If someone can take a look at that and what the Mets can still do, and say to you this is the same old Wilpon run Mets, they’re either lying, trying to get attention, think you’re gullible, have no idea what they’re talking about, or some mixture of these.
Make no mistake, this has been a phenomenal offseason. Yes, we can quibble with a move or two, but in the end, calling this anything but a success is dumb. Really, the people pushing these narratives really know better.
Well, at least they should. They should because it’s absurd to think adding a top five player in the game on Lindor on top of everything else they did is disappointing or a failure. It’s really beyond absurd.
This has been nothing short of a great offseason. Arguably, it’s among if not the best the Mets have ever had.
One of the things the New York Mets said they were prioritizing depth. That included starting pitching depth. When the Mets traded Steven Matz to the Toronto Blue Jays, they undid some of that.
Yes, we all know Matz had a maddening Mets career. While many expected a breakout in 2020 following a very good second half in 2019, it didn’t materialize. Honestly, we’ll never quite know how much of that was related to the truly bizarre nature of that season.
Regardless, Matz was needed depth. He also has shown himself to be better than the Mets other SP options.
As noted, Joey Lucchesi is really a two pitch pitcher who may belong in the bullpen. Also, David Peterson had extremely suspect peripherals indicating he needs more development time before he can truly be counted on as a fifth starter.
This shouldn’t be read to mean Matz was absolutely reliable or a sure thing. We know that’s not true. However, that’s double true for Lucchesi and Peterson. In these instances, there’s strength in numbers. It’s better to look for 1-2 of three to emerge than need two questionable pieces to pitch well.
That also moves pitchers like Franklyn Kilome, Corey Oswalt, and Jerad Eickhoff up the depth chart and much closer to pitching games for the Mets. The Mets didn’t want them starting games for the Mets in 2021, and now, they’re closer to doing so.
Obviously, the Mets could sign someone to ameliorate this. The problem on that front is it’s difficult to imagine getting a better pitcher with more upside for less than Matz’s $5.2 million. This is also contingent on the Mets actually getting that pitcher or pitchers.
If this was a move to clear payroll for a Trevor Bauer, you should question why Matz’s contract NEEDED to be moved. You also have to question if Bauer is really worth losing at least one of Michael Conforto, Francisco Lindor, Marcus Stroman, or Noah Syndergaard.
If this was about depth, it makes less sense as the Mets acquired what are really three right-handed relief prospects. Drawing your attention back to the summer of 2017, identifying right-handed relief prospects really isn’t Sandy Alderson’s strong suit.
Love or hate Matz, he was real depth. His work with Phil Regan could’ve paid off, and he could’ve been good. He might’ve emerged as a left-handed reliever in the bullpen.
Instead, the Mets opted to eschew starting pitching depth, put more reliance on unproven pitchers, and rely on Alderson to do what he does worst (trading for RHP relief prospects). Maybe this works out, but looking at the complete picture, this trade was a mistake.
Once again, there are rumors the New York Mets are pursuing Trevor Bauer, and once again, there is a debate whether Bauer is worth it. While most of those debates focus on the personal, it rarely focuses on the budgetary.
Yes, we all know Steve Cohen has more money than the Wilpons, and he’s far more invested in winning. That said, even he has his limits, and he didn’t get this wealthy by just throwing money around like the Yankees when they see a Boston Red Sox player past their prime.
For the Mets, they have to best decide how to invest in players and the team. Looking at it from that perspective, you really have to wonder why the Mets would even bother contemplating signing Bauer.
MLB Trade Rumors projected Bauer could land a four year deal with a $32 million AAV. There have been claims Bauer could surpass Gerrit Cole‘s record $36 million AAV. Long story short it appears it’ll take approximately $30 million per year to sign Bauer.
Looking at the current Mets pitching staff, both Marcus Stroman and Noah Syndergaard will be free agents. That means the Mets will need to make a decision whether they want to re-sign one, both, or neither.
With Stroman and Syndergaard missing 2020 for differing reasons, Zack Wheeler is an interesting comp. Entering free agency, Wheeler had a strong season-and-a-half. From June 1, 2018 through 2019, he had a 3.26 FIP, and there was the expectation he would improve.
As a result, entering his age 30 season, he received a five year deal with a $23.6 million AAV. Syndergaard, 27, and Stroman, 29, ate slightly younger than Wheeler when he hit free agency. Syndergaard (3.25) has a better FIP than Wheeler over his last two years, and Stroman’s (3.79) is worse.
Given that and a number of other factors, we could well see Stroman and Syndergaard sign deals with an AAV comparable to Wheeler. For the sake of using round numbers, let’s say it’ll take $25 million per year to extend both Stroman and Syndergaard.
In 2020, because Stroman accepted the qualifying offer, he will make $18.9 million. Syndergaard and the Mets settled his final year of arbitration at $9.7 million.
That means, if the Mets were looking to give Stroman a deal with a $25 million AAV, he’d get a $6.1 million raise. For Syndergaard, that’s a $15.3 million raise. Combined, that’s $21.4 million.
Looking at it purely from a pitching perspective, the Mets could give Bauer $30 million, or they can use $21.6 million to keep Stroman and Syndergaard. That’s $8.4 million which can then be used for a Brad Hand or another area of need.
Keep in mind, that $30 million doesn’t have to be used for starting pitching. In addition to Stroman and Syndergaard, the Mets will see Michael Conforto, Francisco Lindor, Brandon Nimmo, Seth Lugo, and maybe even Jacob deGrom hit free agency over the next few years.
Taking all that into account, you really have to wonder why the Mets would be pursuing Bauer. In reality, it’s a gross misallocation of resources. For what the Mets could give Bauer, they could keep two better ones and have money left over to further invest in the team.
Maybe the Mets still want Bauer, and maybe, they even sign him. Whatever the case, the Mets really have to make sure he’s worth all that comes with him, and given the expiring contracts, all that will likely go.
In reality, it’s far better to keep Stroman and Syndergaard than to sign Bauer. Hopefully, that’s the path the Mets pursue.
When looking to sign a player, the first question is whether that player would improve the team. Clearly, Trevor Bauer clears that hurdle.
The next is whether that player is a worthwhile investment. That’s where it gets complicated for Bauer.
Bauer is noted to want to pitch every fourth day, and he purportedly is seeking $30+ million. Putting aside, the Mets logjam trying to extend players, the Mets have to justify making Bauer their highest paid player when he’s not that.
Putting aside 2020 for a moment, here’s how Bauer would stack against a fully healthy Mets rotation from 2016 – 2019:
ERA+
- Jacob deGrom 151 ERA+
- Carlos Carrasco 126 ERA+
- Noah Syndergaard 119 ERA+
- Trevor Bauer 119 ERA+
- Marcus Stroman 113 ERA+
FIP
- deGrom 2.82 FIP
- Syndergaard 2.83 FIP
- Carrasco 3.37 FIP
- Bauer 3.70 FIP
- Stroman 3.80 FIP
Looking at it, Bauer is clearly fourth. However, when you compare the relative levels of competition, Stroman has put up his numbers against VASTLY superior competition.
Taking that into account, when Syndergaard returns, that makes Bauer the fifth starter on this Mets team. Yes, he’d be by far the best fifth starter in the league, but a fifth starter nevertheless.
Now, Bauer did have a great 2020. However, it should be noted that came in a shortened season against absolutely dreadful competition. Moreover, Bauer, himself, put into question just how he was able to accomplish it.
If you’re the Mets, how can you possibly sign a pitcher to the highest contract when he’s likely going to be your fifth best starting pitcher? While a team could do whatever they want, this would seem like a mismanagement of resources.
No, the Mets should be better allocating those resources to positions of need like third, center, and the bullpen. They should be looking to extend their players including Stroman and Syndergaard. They should be letting another team roll the dice with Bauer.
The Mets have four pitchers better than Bauer. They should let that quartet led them in 2021 and hopefully well beyond that.
Sean Gilmartin is looked upon much differently for many different reasons, but back in 2015, he was an important piece of the Mets bullpen. That was not necessarily expected.
Gilmartin was a Rule 5 pick from the Atlanta Braves. While the converted minor league starter was first expected to be a left-handed reliever, he turned out to be a key long reliever in the bullpen.
During that 2015 season, he was 3-2 with a 2.67 ERA, 1.186 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9, and an 8.5 K/9 in 49 relief appearances and one start. In 14 of those appearances, he went multi-innings. With that, he was an important piece of the bullpen who ate innings for what was a shallow bullpen for most of the year.
That long man role has been oft overlooked, but it is of vital importance. We’ve seen it through Mets history. The 1999 Mets had Pat Mahomes. The 2006 Mets had Darren Oliver. As noted, the 2015 Mets had Gilmartin.
The 2021 Mets could have Joey Lucchesi.
Lucchesi has pitched in parts of the last three seasons with the San Diego Padres, and he has not quite distinguished himself. Overall, he’s made 58 starts and one relief appearance going 18-20 with a 4.21 ERA, 1.280 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9, and a 9.3 K/9.
With a 96 ERA+ and a 4.21 FIP, it’s not quite fair to claim he’s a bad starter. However, looking at him, he’s really in a three way battle for that fifth spot when Noah Syndergaard returns.
Looking deeper, the question is how to best utilize the Mets roster this year. Yes, depth is important, and there is the option to put Lucchesi and David Peterson in Triple-A. While that may work for Peterson who needs more time to develop, it may not be what’s best for Lucchesi.
Looking at Lucchesi’s career numbers, opposing batters hit .233/.293/.397 the first time through the order. They hit .233/.288/.406 the second time. The third? Well, it is an ugly .312/.395/.548.
That’s a large reason why he’s averaged just five innings per start in his career. In the modern game, that’s not bad at all, especially from your fifth starter.
Still, like with Seth Lugo with his increased velocity and ability to fully use his curveball as a weapon, there is the question of whether Lucchesi would work better in the bullpen.
Going to Baseball Savant, Lucchesi’s unique churve is a lethal weapon getting a 38.6 Whiff% in 2019 and 47.4 in 2020.
While a phenomenal weapon, Lucchesi really doesn’t have a third pitch to pair with it and what is really a mediocre fastball. At 27, there’s a real question if he could ever develop one to be a truly viable starter in the long term.
However, in the bullpen, Lucchesi and his churve could become elite. He could be a left-handed version of Lugo. Pairing the two together gives the Mets the ability to mix and match them and not leave them struggling to figure things out on those days Lugo is understandably unavailable.
Overall, the Mets need to gauge how to best utilize all of their pitchers and build depth. That depth is both for the bullpen and rotation. It’s not remotely an easy decision, but Lucchesi in the bullpen is one the Mets should very strongly consider.
When evaluating what the New York Mets do this offseason, the team has to balance building a competitive 2021 roster with their ability to re-sign players. Part and parcel of that is building a sustained winner and not a typical Wilpon style one and done team.
As noted previously, the Mets have to evaluate their priories when looking to extend Michael Conforto, Francisco Lindor, Steven Matz, Marcus Stroman, and Noah Syndergaard. Keeping that quintet is going to be difficult.
That is going to become all the more complicated based on what the Mets continue to do this offseason. Players like Brad Hand and George Springer will be expensive. That affects the Mets ability to spend in 2021 and the ensuing years.
Sure, you can point out the Mets have money coming off the books at the end of the year. It’s a significant amount too with Jeurys Familia ($11.67), Dellin Betances ($6), and Brad Brach ($2) in addition to the aforementioned players.
However, as noted, the Mets have significant players who will require significant money. On top of that, after 2022, key players like Brandon Nimmo and Seth Lugo are free agents. Exacerbating that is Jacob deGrom having an opt out, and the Mets having a team option on Carlos Carrasco.
You really have to wonder how the Mets are able to keep this going without surpassing the luxury tax threshold. On the other hand, why are people so concerned when the Mets aren’t?
Jared Porter on luxury tax threshold, "No, it's not something we have to have a line in the sand on."
— Michael Mayer (@mikemayer22) January 8, 2021
At some point, everyone became concerned about the luxury tax threshold. Maybe, it was watching the Wilpons operate the Mets for a decade. Maybe, it was the rumors floating around the owners were going to limit the Mets ability to spend as a condition of his buying the team.
Whatever the case, there is only one man who has concern about the Mets spending, and that’s the man cutting the checks. At the end of the day, the only person who truly knows the Mets ability and willingness to exceed the threshold is their owner Steve Cohen.
That’s nothing to say of the expiring CBA. For all the hand wringing about the current constraints, those parameters are going to be readdressed and reset after this offseason. On that front, it makes little to no sense to get over wrought about provisions not set and not really dickered.
At the moment, the only people who should be concerned about the Mets ability and willingness to surpass the luxury tax threshold in 2021 and beyond is the Mets front office. Well, them and the National League East who has to contend with the sudden Mets juggernaut.
For the rest of us, the luxury tax threshold is merely a talking point with only guesses as to the Mets true intentions.
Now that Francisco Lindor is a member of the New York Mets, the team now has to try to find a way to sign the 27 year old superstar to a contract extension. This is the move the Los Angeles Dodgers made with Mookie Betts just last year.
Its also what the Mets once did with Keith Hernandez and Mike Piazza. Those moves resulted in a World Series, two pennants, two NL East titles, and four postseason appearances. Keeping Lindor can very well have the same impact on the Mets going forward.
However, it’s more than just Lindor. The Mets have key pieces of their core ready to hit free agency after this year.
First and foremost is Michael Conforto. In 2020, Conforto emerged as a true leader for this team and a potential future captain. Since moving past his shoulder injury, he’s re-established himself at the plate with a 135 OPS+ over the past two seasons.
Another homegrown Mets player who will be up for free agency is Noah Syndergaard, who will be returning from Tommy John at some point in 2021. Before suffering that injury, he was arguably one of the best pitchers in baseball.
From his debut in 2015 – 2019, Syndergaard was 10th best in the majors in FIP and WAR while having the second best hard hit rate. He’s also a pitcher who thrives on the big stage. He was the last Mets pitcher to win a postseason game, and in the last Mets postseason game he arguably out-pitched Madison Bumgarner over seven innings.
At 28, he’s still young and in his prime. This is the type of pitcher teams usually move to make a part of their franchise for as long as they possibly can.
Joining Syndergaard near the top of the Mets rotation and free agency is Marcus Stroman. Like Syndergaard, the 2017 World Baseball Classic MVP was born to pitch in the big game and on the biggest stage.
What truly stands out with Stroman is not just his positivity, but his tireless pursuit to improve as a pitcher. That is exactly the type of pitcher who not only tends to improve as years progress, but he’s the type of pitcher who has a positive impact on teammates.
New split-change I’ve been working on. @PitchingNinja @CodifyBaseball https://t.co/wXRgLKbpKo pic.twitter.com/CIYJKPdFb8
— Marcus Stroman (@STR0) December 29, 2020
In terms of advanced stats like FIP and WAR, he lines up as a number two starter. However, he’s someone who you trust against another team’s ace. He’s not good, and he’s not getting outworked by anyone.
Right there, the Mets have four extremely important pieces due for an extension. After 2020, their two best position players, and two of their best three starters hit the free agent market. If the Mets truly want to rival the Dodgers, they need to move to lock these pitchers up long term.
That’s easier said than done. Some of these players may want to test the free agent market. Steve Cohen’s pockets aren’t bottomless. There’s also the matter of other players on the team.
Steven Matz will also be a free agent. After the 2022 season, Brandon Nimmo and Seth Lugo will be free agents. Jacob deGrom can opt out of his contract after 2022, and the Mets have a team option on Carlos Carrasco.
Overall, the Mets have to make a number of extraordinarily important decisions on players on their roster over the ensuing two seasons. They need to balancing being able to extend those players with adding another huge contract.
By the looks of it, obtaining Lindor hasn’t completed the big moves for this Mets offseason. Rather, it means their work really has just begun.
When the New York Mets pulled off that surprise blockbuster deal with the Cleveland Indians, they obtained Carlos Carrasco to be a mid-rotation starter. For the Mets, Carrasco is a perfect fit.
The 33 year old pitcher is on an extraordinarily team friendly deal. He’s owed just $12 million per year for each of the next two years with a third year option for $14 million. Historically, he’s outperformed that.
From 2016 – 2018, Carrasco averaged 15 wins a season posting a 3.39 ERA, 1.120 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9, and a 10.1 K/9. He averaged 6+ innings per start.
In terms of advanced stats, he had a 134 ERA+ and a 3.21 FIP. That FIP was the 10th best in baseball meaning he was pitching like a number one starter.
Carrasco struggler in 2019, but that was due in large part to his battling leukemia. Carrasco entered 2020 healthy, and he was great again with a 157 ERA+ and a 3.59 FIP. In essence, he was Carrasco.
Looking at it Carrasco being Carrasco is being a better pitcher than Bauer.
For that same 2016 – 2018 period, Bauer averaged 14 wins per season posting a 3.57 ERA, 1.257 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9, and a 9.7 K/9. He also had a 125 ERA+ and a 3.45 FIP. Basically, across the board, Carrasco was better.
Now, if we shift the three year period to incorporate Bauer’s Cy Young winning 2020, things change a bit.
From 2018 – 2019, Bauer had a 3.18 ERA, 1.116 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9, and an 11.2 K/9. He had a 144 ERA+ and a 3.38 FIP. Across the board, these stats are better than Carrasco, and more to the point, Bauer showed a level in 2020 which Carrasco has never come close to reaching.
It should be noted that Bauer’s 2020 season came against really poor competition, and it was over the course of a 60 game season. Still, it did happen, and Bauer is four years younger.
The question is what is that worth.
With Carrasco, he’s being paid a relatively paltry $12 million per year. According to projections, Bauer is seeking to make north of $20 million more than that.
Yes, the Mets parted with players in the deal to get Carrasco and Francisco Lindor. Looking at that deal, Carrasco was almost treated as a throw-in. Of course, given his ability as a mid to top of rotation pitcher, you can never say he’s a throw-in.
And yet, the deal the Mets made to obtain him and Lindor was such a bargain you could perceive it as such. Taking that into account, Carrasco is a far better option than Bauer.
That goes double when you consider that $20 million difference can be utilized to try to extend Michael Conforto, Lindor, Noah Syndergaard, and Marcus Stroman.
Taking everything into account, Carrasco was a far superior option for the Mets than Bauer. Not only is Carrasco arguably a pitcher who will provide similar production, but he will also do so at a much cheaper price.
Getting Carrasco over Bauer means the Mets have the ability to keep their core as well as add to this team. Every way you break it down, obtaining Carrasco was a stroke of genius and a far, far better move than signing Bauer.
The New York Mets are in an interesting position with their rotation. They’re set at the top with Jacob deGrom and Marcus Stroman. That could be the best 1-2 combination in all of baseball.
When Noah Syndergaard returns, that’s a tremendous top three. The question is what the Mets should do for the last two rotation spots.
Given the presence of Steven Matz and David Peterson, you could argue the Mets have the luxury of taking a shot at pure upside there. That brings us to Corey Kluber and James Paxton.
Both pitchers are coming off injury riddled seasons. Instead of cashing in on free agency, they’re having showcases to prove they can return to form. Those forms are better than anything on the market.
Before being traded to the Rangers and suffering a tear of the teres major muscle in his right shoulder, Kluber was one of the best pitchers in the majors.
In 2017 and 2018, he had a 172 ERA+, 2.82 FIP, and a 7.0 K/BB. If he can be anything close to that, he’s taking the Mets to the World Series.
However, there’s no knowing if he can get anywhere close to that. He struggled in his six starts before he suffered a broken arm from a comebacker. He never made it back that season due to injuries, and he lasted one inning in 2020 before the muscle tear.
If Kluber can get anywhere near his 2018 form, he’d be great. That 2018 form makes him well worth the gamble.
The same thing can be said about Paxton.
When the Seattle Mariners did their great sell off, Paxton went to the New York Yankees. In 2019, he had a 117 ERA+, 3.86 FIP, and a 3.38 K/BB. He showed he can handle the stage not just in that regular season but also with a big win in Game 5 of the ALCS.
Over a three year period (2016-2019), Paxton had a 120 ERA+, 3.26 FIP, and a 4.1 K/BB. That’s a very good pitcher.
What wasn’t good was Paxton’s 2020. He had a 6.64 ERA in five starts in an injury riddled season before shutting it down with a flexor strain. At the moment, his velocity isn’t all the way back with him throwing 94 MPH in a throwing session. Still, he’s getting there.
If Paxton’s ready by Opening Day, you want him in your rotation. Unfortunately, the only way you can really figure that out is by signing him. Teams have the right to be leery, but he’s well worth the risk.
If you’re the Mets, adding Kluber or Paxton to deGrom and Stroman is awfully enticing. That goes double when they would slot into the rotation as a three or four.
Adding both allows them to put Peterson in the minors as insurance and to permit him to improve in the areas where he needs to improve. In the event, Kluber or Paxton falter or aren’t quite ready for Opening Day, the Mets have Peterson.
If they work out and Syndergaard returns as planned, Matz becomes a weapon out of the bullpen. Alternatively, the Mets can cycle through all of these starters to keep them fresh and to the finish line much like they did in 2015.
Of course, the Mets can sign a more reliable option like Masahiro Tanaka or Jose Quintana to pair with one of Kluber or Paxton. You can understand that path.
That said, if you really believe Kluber and Paxton are healthy, and you believe in Jeremy Hefner, you roll the dice and add both. You give them the incentive laden deals they merit/want, and you allocate your funds towards George Springer, Brad Hand, and third base.
Ultimately, that’s just one of many paths before the Mets. Fortunately, they have the people in charge and the resources available that you can trust they’re going to make the right decisions to make the Mets a real contender.