Steven Matz Trade A Mistake
One of the things the New York Mets said they were prioritizing depth. That included starting pitching depth. When the Mets traded Steven Matz to the Toronto Blue Jays, they undid some of that.
Yes, we all know Matz had a maddening Mets career. While many expected a breakout in 2020 following a very good second half in 2019, it didn’t materialize. Honestly, we’ll never quite know how much of that was related to the truly bizarre nature of that season.
Regardless, Matz was needed depth. He also has shown himself to be better than the Mets other SP options.
As noted, Joey Lucchesi is really a two pitch pitcher who may belong in the bullpen. Also, David Peterson had extremely suspect peripherals indicating he needs more development time before he can truly be counted on as a fifth starter.
This shouldn’t be read to mean Matz was absolutely reliable or a sure thing. We know that’s not true. However, that’s double true for Lucchesi and Peterson. In these instances, there’s strength in numbers. It’s better to look for 1-2 of three to emerge than need two questionable pieces to pitch well.
That also moves pitchers like Franklyn Kilome, Corey Oswalt, and Jerad Eickhoff up the depth chart and much closer to pitching games for the Mets. The Mets didn’t want them starting games for the Mets in 2021, and now, they’re closer to doing so.
Obviously, the Mets could sign someone to ameliorate this. The problem on that front is it’s difficult to imagine getting a better pitcher with more upside for less than Matz’s $5.2 million. This is also contingent on the Mets actually getting that pitcher or pitchers.
If this was a move to clear payroll for a Trevor Bauer, you should question why Matz’s contract NEEDED to be moved. You also have to question if Bauer is really worth losing at least one of Michael Conforto, Francisco Lindor, Marcus Stroman, or Noah Syndergaard.
If this was about depth, it makes less sense as the Mets acquired what are really three right-handed relief prospects. Drawing your attention back to the summer of 2017, identifying right-handed relief prospects really isn’t Sandy Alderson’s strong suit.
Love or hate Matz, he was real depth. His work with Phil Regan could’ve paid off, and he could’ve been good. He might’ve emerged as a left-handed reliever in the bullpen.
Instead, the Mets opted to eschew starting pitching depth, put more reliance on unproven pitchers, and rely on Alderson to do what he does worst (trading for RHP relief prospects). Maybe this works out, but looking at the complete picture, this trade was a mistake.
This move is clearly a precursor to a bigger move. Let’s see what that is.
This was not a needed precursor
Mets improved depth by trading Matz who would otherwise be in his walk year and not candidate for extension. The 40-man roster is loaded with pitching and so some will be traded or waived.
This didn’t improve depth.
I’m ignorant about these three BlueJays prospects, just as I was when Syndergaard was a throw-in prospect for Dickey. Hopefully one of them hits their potential.
I think Matz should’ve been packaged in one of the rumored deals involving Bryant, Arenado, or even Castillo. His upside as a lefty had value, though I am unaware how those payroll shedding teams viewed his 5m salary.
As much as I detest Arenado’s $36m, he deserves it exponentially more than Bauer. Maybe it’s the opposite of what Colorado wants in return, but asking them to take Familia’s $11m, Matz’s $5.2m, & Cano’s $24m in a deal with some prospects makes the money work.
Both Matz & Famila’s salary are off the books after this year saving them $16.2m next year, & Cano is $12m cheaper per year than Arenado for just two more years saving yet another $24m.
They would save a combined $40m across 2022-2023, get Cano’s pop in Mile High Stadium, be free of Arenado’s $199m, plus whatever prospects are included.
In turn the Mets could rationalize Arenado’s $36m as being a better deal than Bauer, solving the Cano albatross, & maximizing returns on Famila & Matz.
I guess it doesn’t matter anymore. Good luck to Matz. Hopefully he wins 15gms for the BlueJays. They’ve been one of the best trade partners for the Mets since the late 80s. Quality trades always breed future deals.
Roster depth shouldn’t cost $5.2M. Really what has Matz done since his debut? His peripherals worsened each year and his inability to stay on the field is an issue. I always root for the home-grown guys and anyone from the 2015 team has a soft spot in my heart, but there is little to complain about here, IMO.
I suspect this will turn out to be another Addison Reed trade, where the Mets get three pitchers that won’t ever contribute much, while the guy they traded away faded as well. The key to this deal is what else it might bring. Do they package one or two of the ex-Jays in some other blockbuster, or is this just a stand-alone “hey we got three lotto tickets for a spare part and saved a bundle” deal?
Matz at $5.2 million is cheaper than any depth that’ll be available now. It’s another reason why this trade doesn’t make sense.
In the end, the Mets accomplished little other than making their team worse.
Not really. If you sing a more reliable starter, your depth is the remainder arms that earn what is expected for such type depth pieces (Peterson, Luchese, McWilliams, Kilome), that come also with minor league options.
It was smart to tender Matz, but it was smarter to put together the trade; of course, that is provided they put the money to good use.
The Mets didn’t get that starter. If the Mets paired this with a signing, it’s a different conversation, but they didn’t do that.
Instead, they created a hole with no real clear path to fill it. Moreover, they got two relievers with dwindling options who are likely gone within a year or two.
Really, this was not a good decision at all.
may be, but the off season is not over yet; let’s wait before making a definitive ruling
The FA market is full of more expensive Matzes.