David Peterson
Well, no one is whining over losing Brandon Nimmo, Pete Alonso, and Jeff McNeil. David Stearns has drastically and dramatically remade the New York Mets into possibly the best team in baseball.
They recently made huge additions with Bo Bichette and Louis Robert Jr. (two moves requiring overdue posts). Stearns then took a big swing trading for Freddy Peralta and Tobias Myers.
People will say Peralta was needed because the Mets rotation was bad. They were very wrong. That said, Peralta is a very good pitcher, and when you can add a very good pitcher, you do it.
Peralta makes the Mets rotation better in so many ways.
He was 24th in the majors in innings pitched, and he’s made 30+ starts in three consecutive years. He was 17th in the majors in FIP and 15th in WAR. He was seventh in ERA and eighth in ERA+.
While you may uncomfortable calling him an ace, he’s a number one starter. It’s a fact. When there are 30 MLB teams are you’re top 25 and better in most categories, you’re a number one.
When a team adds a number one starter, it dramatically improves their outlook. Go back to 2000. Mike Hampton wasn’t an ace, but he was a true number one, and he was a big piece that helped the Mets win the pennant.
Peralta may not even be the Mets best starter. That is probably Nolan McLean. It’s hard to find a better 1-2 in baseball than Peralta-McLean . . . or McLean-Peralta.
Speaking of McLean, this makes him and the whole rotation better. At the moment, the Mets have six starters. This gives McLean an extra day of rest to help him get through his first full MLB season.
Kodai Senga has been better with an extra day of rest, and now, he gets it. David Peterson and Clay Holmes wore down from the increased workload, and now, they also get an extra day. Sean Manaea also gets a needed extra day.
They just didn’t get better by adding Peralta. They got better because the six man rotation makes the entire rotation better. They’re getting the best out of all their starters, which is very bad news for the National League.
Senga and Peterson have been All-Stars. Manaea was a top of the rotation pitcher for a team that went to the NLCS. McLean’s ceiling is as high as we’ve ever seen. They’re now all positioned to be at their best making them arguably the best rotation in baseball.
Keep in mind, Peralta was not the only pitcher the Mets obtained. They also received Myers, a pitcher who is not even arbitration eligible until after the 2027 season.
Myers has been a dominant reliever in his brief Major League career. If you go back to that 2024 Game 3, he absolutely dominated the Mets and appeared to be the game winning pitcher until Alonso did what he did.
Myers may still yet be a starter. He could be a future closer. He’s the Mets 2026 version of Seth Lugo. That’s a dangerous pitcher to have on your staff, and Myers is probably better.
Now, the Mets paid an understandably steep price for Peralta and Myers. In fact, ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel explains the Mets trading Jett Williams and Brandon Sproat moved them from the top farm system to sixth best. Ironically, the Brewers moved from sixth to first.
There will be some who try to nitpick the prospects. We can point to Sproat’s struggles at Triple-A and his four Major League starts. We shouldn’t be doing that.
Sproat has a bright future ahead of him. After all, he made his MLB debut a year after being drafted. He could’ve been a big piece for the Mets in 2026.
Williams is a top prospect. He has a real future at second, short, or CF. He’s got speed and power in his bat. Losing him hurts, and it takes away insurance for the 35 year old Marcus Semien and injury prone players like Bichette and Robert.
The Mets can soon come to regret this trade, especially with Peralta being a year away from free agency. That makes this a real gamble and a worthwhile one at that.
Peralta improves the Mets rotation and improves the entire pitching staff. Myers makes the Mets deeper. If Myers is in the bullpen, this could be the best staff in the entire Major Leagues.
The Mets officially went all-in. They’ve built a team better than the 2025 Mets, and it could be the best this century. Time will tell. Whatever happens, it’ll be because the Mets made the very bold move to add Peralta to make the Mets the one team who can dethrone the Dodgers.
Let’s start with two premises. The first is you can never have enough pitching. The second is the New York Mets starting pitching completely fell apart in 2025.
With that out of the way, we need to assess what the Mets have and act accordingly. Remember, just because things were bad last year, it doesn’t mean they’re automatically bad the next.
Right off the bat, Nolan McLean looked like a future ace. He burst onto the scene like Jacob deGrom did in 2014, and the hope is McLean improves in year two in the same way deGrom did (no one is saying McLean will be the Cy Young version of deGrom . . . yet).
Behind McLean is Kodai Senga. When healthy, he’s been untouchable. Before Pete Alonso’s throw, he was 7-3 with a 1.47 ERA while averaging nearly six innings per start.
He just wasn’t right after he returned from injury. We don’t know what happened, but the fair assumption is he can get back to the pitcher who has pitched at a near ace level in his career.
It was a tale of two halves for David Peterson. He went from an All-Star to a mess. Lost in last season was the fact he pitched far more innings than he ever had as a Major Leaguer.
In 2024, Peterson pitched 121.0 innings, which was a then career high. Through 127.0 innings in 2025, he was 7-4 with a 2.83 ERA. With him being so good, and the other pitchers either injured or unable to go deep into games, Carlos Mendoza pushed him during this stretch.
After that 127.0 mark, Peterson was 2-2 with an 8.42 ERA averaging under five innings per start. It’s fair to assume there was some fatigue involved. Certainly, we should expect him to be fresh to start the year, and with closer attention to his workload, he should be able to get through the year better.
Sean Manaea was injured to start 2025, and he never got fully healthy, and he never built up his stamina. After 25 pitches, his K/9 went from 10.00 to 5.25.
He didn’t have a spring training, and he rushed back to help the team. He pitched through pain, and he faltered. Fortunately, he’s feeling healthy now.
Whether he gets back to being the top of rotation pitcher who led the Mets to the 2024 NLCS remains to be seen. Still, he should be able to give you five quality innings at the back end of the rotation.
Then, there is Clay Holmes in his second year as a starter. He actually held up well through his first 17 starts going 8-4 with a 2.99 ERA even if his 4.42 FIP indicated a regression was coming, which did come.
After those 17 starts, Holmes was 4-4 with a 4.23 ERA. He does deserve credit for a big time start his last outing of the year. All told, we should see more stamina from him in 2026.
Right there, the Mets have a viable five man rotation.
- McLean
- Senga
- Peterson
- Manaea
- Holmes
That’s now where the pitching stops. Next up is Brandon Sproat. There were some positives in his four starts with a 2.80 FIP. His first two starts with the Mets were very good. He should start the year in Triple-A, and we will likely see a better version of him when needed.
The same can be said for Jonah Tong. He had some flashes but mostly struggled. Still, he has the stuff and the highest ceiling of any of the three Mets prospects called up at the end of last year.
Speaking of Mets young pitching, we all forgot about Christian Scott. He’s fully recovered from Tommy John, and he appears ready to go for spring training. He showed flashes in 2023 while dealing with a torn UCL, and we can hope he can take a step forward in 2026.
At the moment, that puts the Mets Major League ready pitching depth at eight starters. That increases to nine with the team signing Carl Edwards Jr. to a minor league deal.
Edwards has had success in the majors out of the pen, and he’s recently transitioned to a starter. He did have some success as a starter in the Mexican Leagues last season making this an interesting gamble.
Top pitching prospect Will Watson will likely start the year with Double-A Binghamton. That puts him closer to making it to the majors. With a breakout season, he may very well force his way there.
Same goes for Jack Wenninger. He pitched better than Watson in Double-A and appears much closer to the majors. It’s very possible we see him in Queens next year.
We saw Jonathon Pintaro make his Major League debut next year, and he could be among the first called up next year. We could see a Zach Thornton or Jonathan Santucci pop in 2026.
Point is, there’s real pitching depth here without the Mets making one move to add a starter this offseason. It’s prudent and practical to add more pitching because as we saw in 2025, you can never have enough pitching.
That said, despite the narratives being pushed on Mets fans, they have starting pitching. They’re very well poised to be successful in 2026, and we should see the starting pitching be a driving force of the 2026 season.
In Game Three of the AL Wild Card Series, Cam Schlitter was electric, and he had the type of performance we will talk about for years to come. Over eight shutout innings, he struck out 12 Boston Red Sox while walking none to help the New York Yankees advance to the ALDS against the Toronto Blue Jays.
When the Yankees called up Schlitter, their team was in trouble. Not only did they need another starter, but they were falling apart. Their division lead turned into a 3.5 game deficit in the AL East.
There was open discussion about the Yankees missing the postseason entirely. Not only did the Yankees not miss the postseason, but they would tie the division lead (was a Wild Card on tiebreakers), and they would advance to the ALDS.‘
At the time the Yankees called up Schlitter, there was a call for the Mets to call-up one of their trio of top pitching prospects. On that same July 9 date, the Mets were in first place, and to be fair, they did seem to have corrected the ship.
However, things would change. In early August, they would lose eight in a row. From July 28 – August 15, they were 2-14. TWO AND FOURTEEN!
The Mets once division lead was a six game deficit. Because of the state of the National League, they still somehow held onto a Wild Card spot, and at the time, they even seemed secured of a wild card spot. The joke would ultimately be on us.
During this stretch, the Mets saw Kodai Senga unable to pitch through his earlier injuries. David Peterson and Clay Holmes were hitting a wall with their innings. Sean Manaea was incapable of pitching through his elbow injury.
During this stretch, we not only saw the aforementioned starters falter, but we also saw starts from Frankie Montas and Reed Garrett (acting as an opener for Montas). Both pitchers would go down with season ending injuries.
Finally, on August 16, Nolan McLean would get his first start of the season. The Mets had to drop out of the NL East race and put themselves in the mix for the Wild Card before the Mets reached for McLean.
During the course of the season, the Mets would also give starts to Paul Blackburn, Blade Tidwell, and a series of openers. Notably, Blackburn would be released on August 18, two days after McLean’s first start. Tidwell was moved at the trade deadline in the Tyler Rogers trade.
With young prospects, it is always a guessing game. McLean was ready from the moment he was called up, and he pitched like an ace. Jonah Tong was the most heralded of the players called up, and he faltered.
It’s difficult to know if McLean would have been ready a month or two earlier. To that point, Schlitter made five Triple-A starts this year before his call-up. McLean had made 13 starts.
As of July 9, McLean had made nine starts and two piggyback starts. He was 3-4 with a 2.52 ERA and 65 strikeouts over 60.2 innings. At that point, Schlitter had made five Triple-A starts going 2-1 with a 3.80 ERA and 35 strikeouts over 23.2 innings.
Again, this is not a science, but McLean was ahead of Schlitter in many ways, but the Yankees made the decision much quicker than the Mets. That was even with Schlitter getting shelled in his last Triple-A start.
Meanwhile, McLean made five more starts in Triple-A. During that timeframe, the Mets were 9-13. They lost two-out-of-three to the Cincinnati Reds. Those games were literally the reason why the Mets did not make the postseason.
McLean made five extra starts in Triple-A with four out of the five being very good. It was during this stretch that the Mets lost the Wild Card because that stretch is where they lost the tiebreakers.
The Yankees called up Schlitter. They claimed a Wild Card spot, and they won the Wild Card series behind a brilliant start by Schlitter. McLean was brilliant for the Mets, but because the Mets waited, they missed out on the postseason.
If you want to criticize Stearns, the Yankees gave you every reason why in Game 3 of the Wild Card series.
Go back to the 2024 season. We will forever tell tales of Francisco Lindor’s heroics, and the pitching feats of Sean Manaea, Luis Severino, and David Peterson. We will talk about the shrewd bullpen moves of Ryne Stanek and Phil Maton.
There was Grimace, and of course, Jose Iglesias and OMG.
All that is true, but we also need to discuss how the Mets allowed young players have an opportunity to prove themselves leading to the run the Mets had.
Mark Vientos became a slugging third baseman. The missing piece of the lineup. The Mets gave Jose Butto and Dedniel Nunez prove themselves, and they did. As much as anything, it was the youth that helped the Mets on their 2024 run.
Arguably, it was abandoning the youth that harmed the 2025 Mets chances.
Luisangel Acuna was the second baseman on Opening Day because Jeff McNeil was injured. Acuna was the National League Rookie of the Month for the first month of the season.
When he struggled, Acuna was put on the bench in favor of McNeil. Even if he struggled down the stretch, McNeil was good this year with a 2 OAA and 111 wRC+. He was a very good player, but that did not mean Acuna needed to be relegated to just a pinch runner and defensive replacement.
That is why players like Travis Jankowski, who had a brief stint with the Mets, exist. Acuna needed more playing time.
There was also the matter of Vientos. Vientos helped to save the 2024 Mets, and they nearly forgot all that he did for them. Yes, he struggled out of the gate (he’s always been a slow starter), and he had injuries which exacerbated his struggles.
That said, we know what he was capable of doing. This was the Mets best hitter in the postseason. When the DH spot opened up, he went on an absolute tear until they again decided to give him intermittent playing time.
Butto struggled part of this year, and he was shipped off as part of an overpay for Tyler Rogers. The Mets called up Dom Hamel multiple times and only used him once, and instead opted to continued burning out their bullpen when he could’ve eaten innings.
Ronny Mauricio was called up after a rash of injuries. Mauricio surprised by playing an excellent third base, which metrics best on the team. However, he struggled offensively with a 29.3 K% and 88 wRC+. Because of these struggles, he was placed on the bench, unused for much of the season instead of sending him back to Syracuse to develop.
Then, there’s the Mets waiting as long as they did to call-up Nolan McLean and Brandon Sproat. McLean was an ace as soon as he was called up, and Sproat showed real flashes.
Sure, you could justify waiting on them because you never know when a pitcher is truly ready. Jonah Tong’s struggles are evidence of that. Still, when the Mets needed a starter, they waited forever before calling up a trio of pitchers that earned the opportunity.
To sum up, the Mets sidelined a promising young second baseman and a third baseman that helped lead them to the NLCS. They took a talented third baseman and gave him no playing time. They didn’t use their young pitching as the also-rans faltered.
The Mets made a lot of mistakes in 2025. The biggest of them all was abandoning their young players and not allowing them to be a driving force like they were in 2024. That’s partially why they are home in 2025 while they made a run to the NLCS in 2024.
David Stearns’ New York Mets were worse in year two than they were in year one. They failed despite adding Juan Soto, which is just baffling.
Every fan and pundit is going to point to the starting pitching. Obviously, the starting pitching was a failure, but at some point, you have to actively say there’s only so much one man can do.
Right off the bat, Stearns made a massive mistake signing Frankie Montas instead of bringing back Luis Severino. Montas was a disaster, but he was also broken. It’s fair to question just how much of that was something that happened with the Mets, and whether the team physical missed something.
Looking at Severino, he was not good in 2025. He had a 1.0 WAR and a 92 ERA+. It’s possible he could have been better with the Mets, but based off what we saw, he was a below average pitcher whose strikeout rate dropped. Still, his 29 starts averaging 5.2 innings would have been more than welcome.
Aside from that mistake, Stearns had Kodai Senga and David Peterson returning to the rotation. He re-signed Sean Manaea, the ace from the 2024 staff. Right there, the Mets had as good as a top three as anyone in baseball.
Like with Montas, something either happened or was missed with Manaea. We looked at him as someone that could be an ace to someone battling through injury barely able to give you three quality innings. ‘
Senga was pitching at a Cy Young level. That was until Pete Alonso made one of his horrendous throws to first base leading to a Senga injury. After that throw, Senga went from a 1.47 ERA to a pitcher who had a 5.90 ERA over his last nine starts.
Peterson was great in the first half. He was an All-Star. Who knows what happened to him after July 20. After that start, he was 3-2 with a 6.34 ERA. The hope is it was the extra workload, but based on the missed injuries we saw with Montas and Manaea, a potential injury can’t be dismissed.
Joining that group in the rotation was Clay Holmes. Holmes had a good first year as a starter with a 114 ERA+. If starters didn’t drop like flies, he might’ve been able to be transitioned to the bullpen late in the season. Alas, that opportunity never arose.
Tylor Megill was quality starting pitching depth again. He had a 3.95 ERA over his 14 starts. Unfortunately, he needed Tommy John and will miss all of 2026.
Adding to the depth, Stearns signed Griffin Canning. He was a revelation of his 16 starts. At one point, he was on the outskirts of All-Star discussion, and he finished his season with a 107 ERA+ before he suffered a fluke ruptured ACL tear.
Look over that list again. In theory, the Opening Day rotation was supposed to be Manaea, Senga, Peterson, Montas, and Holmes. Behind them was Megill and Canning. That’s seven quality starters who should have been able to get you through the season.
Behind them, the Mets farm system did a great job developing Nolan McLean, Brandon Sproat, and Jonah Tong. McLean will enter next season as the ace, and Sproat should be in the conversation to join the Opening Day roster. Tong clearly needs more time in Triple-A.
Without making any trades, the Mets had 10 different starting pitchers that were capable of winning games. That is all even before we consider the Paul Blackburn disaster.
Sometimes you are just snakebitten. Obviously, there is a curse that is in the Citi Field bullpen. Either that, or the Mets need to address how they review physicals and keep pitchers healthy.
If Stearns goes into 2026 with this level of starting pitching depth, things will be better for the Mets next season. Stearns had a good philosophical approach to the staff, but he did not have the luck he had in 2025.
And before anyone starts, no, the Mets don’t need to go buck wild spending on free agent starters. The Opening Day rotation will have McLean, Peterson, Manaea, Senga, and Holmes. That is great. ‘
Behind that group, they will have Sproat and Tong ready to go. Possibly, Will Watson will be ready at some point in 2026. It would be nice to see if they can bring back Canning.
Think about this for a second. Even with the Montas blunder, Stearns did enough last offseason to build a formidable rotation for 2026. He did his job very well. He just now needs to figure out the health and possibly a way to better keep these pitchers healthy.
Being a New York Mets fan isn’t what it always was. The 1969 and 1986 Mets defined the organization as a team of what can be. Even the disappointments like 1973 and 1999 showed us that even in losses, the Mets organization is known for the potential miracles that can occur.
Maybe it started with Dwight Gooden missing the championship parade while sitting in a crack house. Maybe it was Kenny Rogers walking Andruw Jones with the bases loaded, or it could have been Todd Zeile’s ball getting stuck on the wall.
Frankly, it was probably the Wilpons getting sole ownership of the Mets organization. At some point, this Mets team went from miracles to Carlos Beltran striking out looking, the two collapses to close out Shea Stadium, and sadly, so much more.
In that vein, let’s try to rank out the Mets collapses. Just a fun little exercise for us Mets fans.
5. 2025 Collapse
This is the freshest, and it probably seems worse that it was. Actually, it is worse than it was, but this is being viewed through the prism of Mets history,
Unlike some of the other collapses, this was a a slow moving train. We all watched on with horror for months as this happened. This was the man getting run over by the roller in Austin Powers.
This collapse started in June with Griffin Canning went down. For months, this team was David Peterson and just four other guys in the rotation, and then Peterson lost it.
Yes, there was so much enthusiasm entering the season with the 2024 shocking run to the NLCS, and the Juan Soto signing. That all said this team was just snakebitten.
This team lost AJ Minter and Jesse Winker for the season. Sean Manaea and Kodai Senga were trying to pitch through injuries. The additions at this year’s trade deadline didn’t have the magic touch. Ultimately, that was it – the magic was gone.
Still on the last day of the season, they had a chance, and they again blew it. This was as bad as it gets, but not the worst it gets for the Mets.
4. 2007 Mets
Unlike most Mets collapses, the 2007 Mets were a case of the Philadelphia Phillies just took it from them. No doubt the Mets fell apart, but the Phillies played baseball at an insane clip instead of the Reds 14-11 September.
The issue with the 2007 is they just ran out of starting pitching. That final week of the season was David Williams and Phillip Humber start games. Billy Wagner was hurt, and Aaron Hellman was on whatever comes after fumes.
We didn’t realize it at the time, but Tom Glavine was pitching with a fork in his back. He was just done, and we saw the Miami Marlins take full advantage.
In reality, this collapse was sown in 2005 with Jeff Wilpon forcing Pedro Martinez to pitch. Also, like we saw with the 2025 Mets, this was a slow moving train as well.
The 2007 Mets slide began in June. From June 1 to the end of the season, they were 54-56. They were just an average team. It was just hard to see at the time, but we know it now. And, we knew it from what we would see the next season.
3. 1998 Mets
The 1997 Mets shocked baseball by somehow finishing with an 88-74 record. They attacked the offseason adding Al Leiter and Dennis Cook in addition to re-signing John Olerud.
They then made the big move by trading for Mike Piazza after Todd Hundley suffered an elbow injury. After some early issues with Piazza adjusting to New York and the booing, the Mets vaulted to postseason contention.
On September 16, they had a big win against the Houston Astros and found themselves a half-game up in the Wild Card standings. From there, they would finish the season going 2-6, losing their last five games.
Making it all the worse is they just needed to win one more game over that stretch. of course, the Mets would completely blow two games over that stretch.
Keep in mind, the San Francisco Giants and Chicago Cubs would play in a winner-take-all Wild Card play-in game. The Cubs finished the season on a 4-6 stretch, and the Giants finished the season losing their last two games.
The play-in game was Steve Trachsel against Mark Gardner. The Mets couldn’t even win to enter this fray. If they won two, they advance to the postseason. It was all for naught as they choked it all away.
2. 2022 Mets
As written about here, the 2022 collapse was worse than the 2007 collapse.
The Mets had Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, and Chris Bassitt lined up in a series where the Mets had to win one game to win the division. Instead, they were swept. At the time, their 10.5 game blown lead was the third largest division lead blown in Major League history. It’s now fourth thanks to the 2025 Detroit Tigers.
Because of the collapse, instead of having a first round bye giving Scherzer, deGrom, and Bassitt much needed rest, they hosted the Wild Card Series, again with their pitching lined up perfectly.
Keep in mind the hubris of Mets fans. At the time, they were actively debating lining up deGrom for Game 3 so he could start the NLDS after the Mets swept the Padres. This Mets team was that good.
Instead, Scherzer pulled a Glavine in Game 1. After deGrom won Game 2, Bassitt was not good in Game 3 with the Mets managing just one hit against Joe Musgrove and his glistening ears.
In many ways, this team unnecessarily panicked. They forced Mark Vientos and Francisco Alvarez into a pennant race after purposefully not giving them cups of coffee earlier in the year. To add insult to injury, Buck Showalter was named Manager of the Year for his guiding the Mets from an easy division title to a team who completely fell apart.
1. 2008 Mets
This is not a popular choice, but it is assuredly the worst of all the collapses. Everything from that season was disturbing.
Rumors still circle about Carlos Delgado and Jose Reyes purposefully quitting on Willie Randolph. Jerry Manuel worked behind the scenes with Jeff Wilpon to force Randolph’s firing. To make it all worse, the Mets did it to Randolph after the first game of a west coast trip began.
Oh, by the way, Randolph was the rare manager fired after a win. Instead, we got Manuel and his clown show. He was at least aided by a rejuvenated Delgado.
On August 27, the Mets led the NL East. Ironically, they opened September by sweeping the Milwaukee Brewers. After that sweep, they were ahead of the Phillies by 3.0 games, and they were ahead of the Brewers by two games in the loss column.
From there, the Mets would go 10-12.
On September 19, they led the NL East by a half-game. Over the final nine games of the season, that became a three game deficit. No, it wasn’t seven in 17, but it was inexplicable.
This team lost six of their final nine games. They were tied for the Wild Card entering the final week of the season with the Marlins (again). They would lose two out of three.
Unlike the prior year where it was Glavine who just didn’t have it, Beltran had a big homer to tie the game against the Marlins. Just when you thought he was changing the narrative from 2006, Manuel decides to go with Scott Schoeneweis, a reliever with a 7.00 September ERA that month.
It was classic Manuel. He was a bad manager making indefensible decisions.
Oh, and keep in mind, the Mets went out and got Johan Santana in the offseason. He was the ace missing in 2006, and he was the starter who could’ve prevented 2007 from happening. Apparently, nothing could stop Manuel, Jeff, and company.
Even if you want to believe 2007 was worse, consider this was the second year in a row only exacerbating everything. To make it even worse, this is the way they closed out Shea Stadium, the same place that saw the 1969 Mets, the ball go through Bill Buckner’s legs, Robin Ventura’s Grand Slam Single, and Mike Piazza’s homer after 9/11.
This loss was the cumulation of everything that happened after Beltran’s strikeout. After this, we had an awkward ceremony, and the team falling apart with the Wilpons getting caught up with the Madoff scandal.
The 2008 collapse was as bad as it gets. Sadly, being Mets fans, we have plenty of years from which to debate.
The New York Mets have a very real starting pitching problem. Ironically, this is happening just as their projected opening day starting rotation is all healthy and together.
We’ve all seen the graphics on SNY. David Peterson is the only starter going 6+ innings. Worse yet, aside from him the other starters have been averaging 4.2 innings per start.
It’s embarrassing, and it probably helped lead to the rash of reliever injuries we’ve seen this season.
Speaking of relievers, Clay Holmes seems to be on fumes. He’s never thrown more than 70 innings in a season. He passed that mark on June 7.
He’s giving five innings now but to varying degrees of success. At the moment, he probably needs more off days between starts, or maybe the Mets should be moving him to the bullpen to prepare for the postseason.
The problem with that plan is Frankie Montas. Montas has been brutal averaging under five innings per start with a 6.68 ERA. He’s flat out giving the Mets no chance to win, and worse yet, he’s exhausting the bullpen for the games they actually could win.
Montas needs to move out of the rotation now. The innings aren’t there and need to come from somewhere.
Everyone is hoping Sean Manae can provide those innings. Right now, he is still working his way back from offseason injury and an elbow injury that appeared during his rehab stint. Last year, he averaged 6+ innings per start in the second half.
Notably, Manae hasn’t thrown more than five innings or 86 pitches in a game. As he continues to get stretched out, that should be two reliable starters
Kodai Senga is the ace, but he’s slipped of late. Over his last four starts, he’s averaging 4.0 innings per start with a 6.19 ERA. Effectively speaking, he’s become Montas.
We do know he’s better with more rest. The Mets need to find it for him, and for Holmes if he is to stay in the rotation.
If and when Paul Blackburn and Tylor Megill are ready to return from injury, they could hop into the rotation. Blackburn is much closer and could rejoin the rotation this week. That said, they are both the five and fly starters that have hampered this Mets bullpen.
The answer to the Mets issues is likely one of Brandon Sproat or Nolan McLean.
Sproat has been great of late, and his recent run seemed to begin when he was working with Francisco Álvarez during Alvarez’s demotion. Over his last six starts, he’s averaging 5+ innings per start. He’s allowed just two earned over his last 33.0 innings while striking out 39.
McLean isn’t on the same hot streak as Sproat, but he’s the more polished pitcher. He’s also giving more innings averaging nearly six innings per start. With Syracuse, he has a 3.01 ERA, 1.144 WHIP, and a 9.6 K/9.
David Stearns has said he’s not calling up any prospect starting pitcher for a spot start. Instead, he will only call them up to join the rotation. The Mets have a definite need for them, and the Mets are running out of other solutions.
Sprout and McLean need to be in the rotation now. It will give more rest to Senga, Manae, Peterson, and Holmes to help their effectiveness. It will get Montas out of the rotation and into the bullpen where he can work on things.
Mostly, it can help the Mets find their fourth starter for the postseason. Of course, they can help them get there too.
By having both in the rotation, the Mets can see which one fares better and is better ready to face Major League batters. They can get more innings to help the bullpen, get more rest for the other starters, win the division, and hopefully win a World Series.
The need has arrived. The Mets can ill afford to wait any longer. Sproat and McLean must be called up now.
Heading into 2024, the New York Mets made it clear they weren’t rebuilding. It was a retooling. Even in that reset, they expected to make the postseason.
The decision made sense. They were paying for contracts like Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander. There were young players they needed to get a real look at the Major League level to see if they were part of the future.
Even if the Mets did not make the postseason, the 2024 season should’ve been considered successful because they found out a lot about their team.
Brett Baty wasn’t the third baseman of the present, and now, he won’t be the third baseman of the future. Thats fine because Mark Vientos was, and he was the best hitter at the position at the Major League level.
David Peterson finally emerged to be the starter the Mets thought he could be. Jose Butto and Dedniel Núñez emerged as very good relievers.
Even though he needed Tommy John and will be lost for 2025, Christian Scott looks like a real rotation piece in the future.
That’s similar to what happened to Ronny Mauricio. He went from 2024 second baseman to a man potentially without a spot. For the Mets, they saw something in him and have interest to see if it’s still there.
Speaking of second base, Luisangel Acuña helped save the Mets season when Francisco Lindor injured his back. Is he the Opening Day second baseman? He did enough to put himself in the mix.
Of course, Acuña has defensive versatility. He could be in the mix at center or third depending on a number of Mets offseason moves. He’s not the only player with defensive versatility.
Jett Williams is the Mets best prospect. He could be the second baseman, shortstop, or center fielder of the future. He might’ve gotten a look last year if not for injuries, and we may well see him in 2025.
The same can be said for Drew Gilbert. He was arguably the prize of the 2023 trade deadline. If not for injuries, he might’ve been up last year.
He’s one of several knocking on the door at Syracuse. Dom Hamel, Blade Tidwell, and Mike Vasil are awaiting their chances to see if they’re the next Butto or Peterson.
That’s nothing to say of the Double-A talent. For years, the Mets kept trying to draft Brandon Sproat, and when they finally got him, we all saw why they desperately wanted him. His battery mate, Kevin Parada, has struggled, but you never know when he finally figures it out.
There is a lot of young talent here waiting to help lead the Mets like we just saw Vientos do. That makes David Stearns job all the more challenging.
Who is the player you trade to try to get that big pitcher like Garrett Crochet? Who is untouchable? Who do you try at all costs not to block at the Major League level?
Certainly, none of these players impact the decisions on Juan Soto or bringing Pete Alonso back. However, there are other quality free agents out there who could forever block a Gilbert or a Vasil.
When making those decision, the Mets better be right. This is why this is still a retool and reset than need to go all-in.
The Mets already have enough. There is so much on the way. They don’t need a lot of help. They just need the right help.
Good on the New York Mets players for making the decision hard for the front office. What once looked like a team that would be sellers is now a team who is in Wild Card position.
Certainly, the players don’t want to waste this opportunity. Francisco Lindor and Brandon Nimmo have already publicly put pressure on the front office to be buyers.
However, this is David Stearns at the helm, and he’s cut different. He looks to sustainable winners, not one-and-done teams. Remember, this is the same person who traded Josh Hader when the Milwaukee Brewers were in first place.
Looking at the Mets, they’re on the precipice of building that sustainable winner. They have starting pitching prospects less than three years away. They have position player talent closer than that.
The question for this organization is do they sacrifice the future for this year. Of course, it’s a balancing act. Certainly, the Mets can be on the alert for more Phil Maton type deals. However, the real difference making players come at a real cost.
There’s an argument for an alternative path. That path has been forged already by José Buttó.
For his part, Buttó had struggled in his early Major League starts. He was far better this year, and eventually, partially out of necessity, he was moved to the Major League bullpen.
As a reliever, he is 3-0 with one save and a 0.84 ERA. With him and Maton, the Mets have two reliable arms in front of Edwin Díaz. Obviously, a team with a 4.07 FIP, the tenth worst in the majors, needs more help.
If the Mets aren’t inclined to trade off top prospects to do that, maybe they should be using those top prospects in 2024.
Again, Buttó’s move there has paid dividends. There’s a chance Tylor Megill can help there. Looking at David Peterson, his experience out of the pen last year appears to be helping him as a starter this year.
It’s something we have seen work against the Mets in the past. No one needs to be reminded of Adam Wainwright striking out Carlos Beltran to end the 2006 NLCS.
Keep in mind, Wainwright was struggling in Triple-A with the Cardinals. He had a 4.64 Triple-A ERA. He proved to be a better Major Leaguer.
At the moment, the Mets have a trio of struggling starting pitching prospects in Triple-A: Dom Hamel, Blade Tidwell, and Mike Vasil. Looking forward, Hamel and Vasil will need to be added to the 40 man roster before the 2024 Rule 5 Draft this offseason.
Rather than trade these players (or others), why not give them a look in the bullpen. Let’s see Hamel’s high spin rates fool batters. Tidwell’s fastball/slider combination appears ready for a MLB bullpen now. Let’s get Vasil away from the ABS system.
Let’s see what these young arms can do now. We’ve seen teams do this all the time to help them win. For that matter, Stearns did that in Milwaukee with Corbin Burnes, Freddy Peralta, and Brandon Woodruff.
Stearns knows how to execute this plan. He knows how to take starting pitching prospects and move them to the bullpen with an eye towards eventually using them as Major League starters here.
The plan makes sense for the Mets in the short term. It could payoff in the long term. Perhaps, this is the way to improve the Mets bullpen now while working to develop their top prospects.
The New York Mets were always in a predicament with Seth Lugo. Lugo wanted to start, but he proved to be far too valuable of a reliever. In fact, there was a time you could argue he was the best reliever in all of baseball.
With the Mets controlling his rights for years, Lugo had to sit and wait for his chance to start again. He got that with the San Diego Padres. He signed a one year deal worth $7.5 million with a $7.5 million option for 2024, which he turned down.
Lugo bet on himself, and he won the bet. In 26 starts, he was 8-7 with a 3.57 ERA, 1.203 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9, and an 8.6 K/9. He averaged 5.2 innings per start. He failed to pitch five innings four times, and he came within one out of having a complete game in his last start of the season.
From an advanced stats perspective, he had a 1.8 WAR, 115 ERA+, and a 3.83 FIP. Per Baseball Savant, his fastball was great, and his curveball spin rate remained off the charts. By and large, he was a very effective pitcher.
Digging deeper, we saw he had a .298 BABIP. That’s right in line with career averages and with league averages, so we should not anticipate regression. The same goes for his LOB%. In essence, with Lugo, with the possible exception of age, we should not see regression.
We also know Lugo has the ability to pitch in New York. He arrived in 2016, and he was great down the stretch for a team that made a near miracle run to the postseason. He pitched three days in the row for the first time in his career in the 2022 Wild Card Series, and he was again fantastic.
The moment and the market does not overwhelm Lugo. Rather, he thrives in those situations. That is always of the utmost importance for the Mets.
That goes double for a Mets team looking to rebuild their rotation. So far, they only have Kodai Senga and José Quintana lined up for the rotation next year while they debate what to do with David Peterson and Tylor Megill.
The Mets need dependable starters and pitching depth. Bringing Lugo back does that. If he had enough innings to qualify, he would have ranked in the top 25 in FIP making him a top of the rotation starter in this league. Ideally, the Mets would be bringing him aboard to pitch at the back-end thereby further strengthening their rotation.
When we look forward, Lugo can then be redeployed in the bullpen come the postseason. With that, you get the best of both worlds. You get Lugo being an effective starter, and then you get to see him pull off what Andrew Miller did in 2016. Put another way, Lugo significantly strengthens the Mets chances of winning the World Series.
In the end, there may be better options available. Lugo may want to look elsewhere. However, in the end bringing Lugo back to start for the Mets advances their chances of winning a World Series more than many of the other starters on the free agent market.