Neil Walker

Travis d’Arnaud Should Be the Mets Catcher in 2017

This offseason, the Mets have a number of important decisions to make.  How far should they go to re-sign Yoenis Cespedes?  Should they re-sign Neil Walker to play second base, or do you stick with what you have in Wilmer Flores, T.J. Rivera, Gavin Cecchini, and/or Jose Reyes?  How do you properly prepare for how to deal with the David Wright situation?  Once you pick up Jay Bruce‘s option, what do you do with him?  Do you move Bruce or Michael Conforto to first base, or do you stick with Lucas Duda, who has now had lower back injuries in consecutive seasons?  Do you bring back Bartolo Colon to be the fifth starter again, or do you fully trust one of Robert Gsellman or Seth Lugo to take over that role?  Overall, there are many questions on how the Mets should build the 2017 roster.

However, one avenue they don’t have to address is the catcher position.

Let’s start with the one player people will have near unanimous agreement.  Rene Rivera should return as the Mets backup catcher.  Rivera certainly earned his reputation as not only a good defensive catcher, but also one that serves as a mentor for young starting pitching.  Much of the unexpected success both Gsellman and Lugo had were partially the result of them working with Rivera.  More importantly, Rivera developed a rapport with Noah Syndergaard.  He became the ace’s personal catcher, and we saw Rivera catch seven brilliant innings from Syndergaard in the Wild Card Game.  With Rivera being arbitration eligible, he should be a lock to return in his role.

By the way, that role was the backup catcher to Travis d’Arnaud.

There is no sugar-coating it.  The 2016 season was a disaster for d’Arnaud at the plate.  In 75 games, d’Arnaud hit .247/.307/.323 with only four homers and 15 RBI.  He didn’t have one extra base hit or an RBI off of a left-handed pitcher the entire season.  It was as bad as you can possibly imagine.  In fact, his numbers were almost as bad as they were in his 2014 rookie season.  That year, the Mets had to send him down to the minors to let him fix his issues at the plate.  The Mets couldn’t afford to do that this season.

Making everything all the more frustrating was d’Arnaud regressed in his ability to throw out base runners.  In 2015, he was actually league average in that department.  That is all the more impressive when you consider how the Mets starting pitchers generally do not hold on runners well.  This season d’Arnaud went back to only throwing out 22% of base runners.

Part of his offensive and throwing issues are related to mechanics.  Part of them may be related to the rotator cuff strain he had in his  throwing shoulder.  Another factor was with d’Arnaud struggling, he began to receive irregular playing time.  It could be any combination of the three.  In any event, d’Arnaud had a poor year offensively and a poor year throwing.

However, d’Arnaud was still good behind the plate.  He’s always been good at fielding a throw and getting the tag down without violating baseball’s blocking the plate rules.  He still calls a good game.  He was yet again one of the best pitch framers in baseball.  In fact, his teammate. Addison Reed, said, “There’s been a couple of times just this season that I’ve went back and looked at video just because I wanted to see how low the ball was, and how good of a strike (d’Arnaud) made it look.  He’s the best I’ve ever thrown to at doing that. Just the way he frames the ball, it’s unbelievable. He makes balls that are four or five inches below the zone look like they’re almost right down the middle by just the way he flicks his wrist. I couldn’t even tell you how he does it.”  (ESPN.com).  Judging from Reed’s words, you can tell he also has the confidence of his pitching staff.

With d’Arnaud still excelling behind the plate, and there being valid reasons for his poor performance, it might just be in the Mets best interests to bet on d’Arnaud rebounding in 2017.  Remember, d’Arnaud was the same player who hit .268/.340/.485 with 12 homers and 41 RBI in 67 games.  Arguably, d’Arnaud was one of the top offensive catchers in the game.  With his skills behind the plate, he has the rare ability to be able to hit and catch well.  With him turning 28 years old and still being a player with multiple years of control, the Mets would be best suited to count on him getting healthy in the offseason (not always a given with d’Arnaud) and letting him reclaim his 2015 form.

Another reason to bet on d’Arnaud is the weak free agent class.  Looking at the list of possible free agents, there does not exist one catcher who is definitively better than d’Arnaud.

The first catcher most people will point to is Wilson Ramos.  Even if you buy into his career year being a new norm for him, Ramos isn’t even sure he will be able to play next season after tearing his ACL.  As Ramos said himself, “Unfortunately this injury… may affect whether I am able to stay with a NL team.”  (cbssports.com).  That rules out Ramos entirely.

The next catcher that is consistently mentioned is Matt Wieters.  In 2016, despite hitting in a hitter’s park like Camden Yards, Wieters hit .243/.302/.409 with 17 homers and 66 RBI.  These numbers are partially why he had an 87 OPS+ meaning he was a subpar offensive player.  Even if you are willing to overlook some of these stats because he is a switch hitter, he hit .231/.304/.346 with three homers and 15 RBI off lefties this year.

Moreoever, Wieters is nowhere near the pitch framer d’Arnaud is.  Wieters is not only unable to steal his staff a strike here or there, he is also unable to ensure that strikes thrown will be called strikes.  Another consideration is Wieters is a fairly injury prone player.  While he was healthy in 2016, he was not for the previous couple of years.  If one of the reasons you are looking to move on from d’Arnaud is health, Wieters is not your guy.

Another factor the Mets should not pursue Wieters, or whoever else you believe should be a target, is money.  Ultimately, players like Wieters are going to cost more than d’Arnaud.  That’s important when you consider Jacob deGrom is heading to his first arbitration year, and the Mets still have to find the money to re-sign Cespedes.  Any money spent this offseason is presumably less money available for the Mets to give Cespedes.  Therefore, if you sign a player, you better make sure that both is both a player of need and/or a definite upgrade over what the Mets already have.

There is no one out there who is definitively better than d’Arnaud.  In fact, they are probably not as good as him.  Worse yet, they are going to be more expensive.  With that in mind, the Mets best move would be to let d’Arnaud get healthy so he can contribute to the Mets like he did in 2015.

If he doesn’t, the Mets still have Kevin Plawecki . . . .

Editor’s Note: this was first published on Mets Merized Online

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Bartolo Colon Should’ve Won the Gold Glove

During his Mets career, there have always been the two Bartolo Colons.  There is the loveable oaf that everyone seems to cheer on when he takes the mound, and then there are the statistics that say he has actually been a below average pitcher during his Mets career.  However, there was one area where the fascination met reality – Colon’s defense.

The love affair began last year with the nifty behind the back flip in Miami to nail Justin Bour at first base on a little dribbler up the first base line:

It continued into this season with Colon making a number of dazzling plays, but there was none more impressive than Colon’s Willie Mays impersonation:

The play is all the more stunning when you consider that as soon as Little League pitchers are taught to not go anywhere near a pop up.  Rather than defer to Neil Walker, and by extension allow the bunt single to happen, Colon ventured back and made a fine play.  It was perhaps the best defensive play made by a pitcher this season.  Typically, highlight reels plays, as opposed to really good defense, are what gets people nominated for Gold Gloves (just look at Derek Jeter).

The issue with Colon was he was actually more than just pizzazz.  In fact, he was the best defensive pitcher all season.  His 8 DRS (they do not calculate UZR for pitchers) was the tops in the major leagues.  Between the highlight reel plays and his actual defensive numbers, Colon should have won the Gold Glove.  As it turns out, he wasn’t even a finalist.  It is a shame because Hopefully, Colon will be able to get over the snub by remembering the most improbable moment of the entire 2016 season:

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Mets Do Not Need Kenley Jansen

John Harper makes a case in the New York Daily News that the Mets need to obtain Kenley Jansen to return to the postseason stating, “If the Mets want to take a huge step toward re-claiming that supremacy next year and beyond, they should make a big splash this off-season by signing Kenley Jansen.” He figures the Mets could obtain Jansen for a four year $54 million contract. His reasoning is flawed.

First of all, there is nothing about the Mets to suggest they can win a bidding war against the Dodgers for Jansen’s services. This doesn’t even account for other bigger spenders like the Cubs, Nationals, and Yankees also potentially getting involved. More importantly, there is no underlying need for Jansen.

Furthermore, the Mets already have a dominant closer in Jeurys Familia. Over the past two seasons, Familia has accumulated more appearances, more innings, and more saves than Jansen. Additionally, despite the current narrative floating around, Familia has been better in the postseason. In 13 postseason appearances, Familia has a 2.30 ERA and a 0.638 WHIP. In 15 postseason apperances, Jansen has a 3.38 ERA and a 1.250 WHIP. People forget that because Familia’s defense let him down in the World Series and he threw a bad pitch to Conor Gillaspie in the Wild Card Game. They also forget because Jansen has had back-to-back great performances in the postseason. That makes you forget the times Jansen has failed or his 6.75 NLDS ERA.

More important than that, the Mets have Addison Reed in the eighth inning. It is quite possible there was no better reliever in the National League than Reed this year. Reed had an amazing season that saw him shatter the Mets record for holds with him recording 40 this season. It’s all the more impressive when you consider Reed made the third most in the majors with the fifth best 1.97 ERA, and the highest WAR among relievers (2.9). Long story short, Reed has the eighth inning locked down.

Overall, between Familia and Reed the Mets have already made games a seven inning game. With the Mets young starters going 6+ per game, they don’t need the 7-8-9 dominant trio that other teams require. In fact, up until the rash of Mets starting pitching injuries this season, the seventh inning wasn’t an issue at all. Terry Collins was able to utilize his full bullpen, notably Hansel Robles, Jerry Blevins (a pending free agent), and when healthy, Jim Henderson, to get through the inning. It wasn’t until Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman took over starting pitching spots that the seventh inning was an issue. It should be noted by that time, Fernando Salas (a pending free agent) locked it down.

The overriding point is the Mets do not need a three headed monster coming out of the bullpen to return to the postseason. Instead, the Mets need their starting pitchers healthy, and they need to re-sign Yoenis Cespedes. Therein lies the rub. As noted by MMO., Mets payroll commitments for the 2017 season already hover around $108 million, and that is before the Mets seek to re-sign Cespedes, Neil Walker, and/or Bartolo Colon.

If the Mets were to re-sign Cespedes to and average annual value commensurate with his 2015 salary figure, the Mets payroll would jump to $135 million. Keep in mind, the Mets 2016 Opening Day payroll was $135 million, and the team had to stretch it to that point to accomodate Cespedes. It is hard to imagine the Mets expanding on this payroll figure when they had a higher payroll in 2016 and didn’t have a long postseason run to offset some of the cost.

If you add Jansen at an average annual value of $13.5 million, that would increase the Mets 2017 payroll to $121.5 million before address the Cespedes, second base, and fifth starter issues. Adding Jansen, a very nice but unnecessary piece, only serves to build a more dominant bullpen at the expense of building a complete team. Adding Jansen overlooks the real need for the Mets, which is their starting pitchers returning next season fully healthy. Overall, the model the Mets shouldn’t be looking at is the three headed monster in the bullpen. Rather, the Mets should be looking at their 2015 model which is being emulated by the Cleveland Indians this postseason:

A dominant young starting pitcher going as deep into the game as possible and then a two-headed monster coming out of the bullpen to win the game.

The Mets already have that in place. What they do not have in place is Cespedes. They cannot do anything to damage their chances to lock him up and return to their 2015 form.

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The Mets Coaching Staff Believed in Daniel Murphy

Despite slugging .533 over the last two months of the season, and homering in seven consecutive postseason games, including home runs off Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, Jon Lester, Jake Arrieta, and Kyle Hendricks, the Mets only made the perfunctory qualifying offer to NLCS MVP Daniel Murphy.  At the time, the qualifying offer was made no player had ever accepted the qualifying offer. 

The Mets thought process was grounded in several factors. First, they believed they could get Ben Zobrist, who they viewed as a superior player. Second, the Mets could recoup the first round draft pick they lost by signing Michael Cuddyer in the previous offseason. Third, and most importantly, the Mets didn’t foresee Murphy carrying that level of production for a full season in 2016 and beyond. 

That last point became all the more apparent when, after the Mets lost out in Zobrist, they traded Jon Niese (who was later re-acquired in exchange for Antonio Bastardo) for Neil Walker.  The Mets made this move despite never inquiring what it would take to re-sign Murphy. 

The logic of the Walker trade was the Mets were getting an All Star second baseman in his walk year. Should he perform, the Mets could either re-sign him, or they could make the qualifying offer and recoup another draft pick. Should he falter or leave in free agency, the Mets could turn the position over to second baseman of the future Dilson Herrera. 

Walker would have a career year for the Mets both at the plate and in the field. Overall, he would hit .282/.347/.476 with 23 homers and 55 RBI. Those numbers are even better when you consider that the switch hitting Walker was no longer a liability from the right side of the plate. Rather, he was a dominant force. 

Unfortunately, Walker would go through part of the summer unable to feel his feet due to a herniated disc. Despite his being in the best stretch of the season and the Mets fighting for the Wild Card, he would have to undergo season ending lumbar microdiscetomy surgery. 

While the Mets remain hopeful Walker will recover fully, and that the two sides can agree to a deal, nothing is guaranteed.  The Mets need Walker to recover with no issues because Herrera was moved in the trade to acquire Jay Bruce. 

Now, many will say this has all been a debacle as Murphy had an MVP caliber season for the rival Washington Nationals. This year, Murphy hit .347/.390/.595 with 47 doubles, five triples, 25 homers, and 104 RBI. He led the league in doubles, slugging, and OPS. Worse yet, he killed the Mets getting a hit in all 19 games against them while hitting .413/.444/.773 with six doubles, seven homers, and 25 RBI. 

In response to that, many will say judging the Mets decision on Murphy is unfair as: (1) no one saw this coming; and (2) you are using hindsight to criticize the Mets. 

That argument is unfounded. First and foremost, the General Manager is supposed to have foresight. He is paid to make sure what happened with Murphy never happens. Second, and most importantly, the argument is patently false. 

As Mets hitting coach Kevin Long told MLB Network Radio, “Daniel Murphy became a monster overnight, once he got it, you knew he wasn’t going to lose it.”  

Murphy certainly hasn’t lost it. In fact, he was even better leading the Nationals to an NL East title over the Mets. Tonight, he looks to recreate his incredible Game Five performance against the Dodgers so he can once again torture the Cubs in the NLCS. 

Meanwhile, the Mets are looking at their second base options, which assuredly are no better than Murphy, in what is an extremely weak free agent class, after being shutout in the Wild Card Game. It didn’t have to be this way as the Mets coaching staff saw Murphy putting together a season like this.

By the way, Anthony Kay, the pick the Mets received for Murphy becoming a National, had to have Tommy John surgery before he ever threw a pitch as a professional. 

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The Tim Tebow Arizona Fall League Disconnect

In case you missed it, and how could you, Tim Tebow played his first ever Arizona Fall League game for the Scottsdale Scorpions.  First, Tebow made headlines for just starting and batting seventh in the game.  Next, there was a buzz over what could be considered an impressive batting practice display:

Then he made headlines for face-planting while going all out trying to catch a flyball:

Lastly, he made headlines for praying over a fan seeking an autograph who had a seizure.  Boy did that spark controversy.  Some people called it a miracle.  Others will point out that most seizures do not last more than 90 seconds, and that, in fact, Tebow did nothing.  The latter crowd will point out how this only serves to further prove that Tebow is a distraction from what is actually happening in the Arizona Fall League.

And you know what?  They’re right.

If you are a Mets fan, you should be more interested in how Gavin Cecchini performed.  As you may already know, Cecchini is the Mets top major league ready middle infield prospect.  Depending on what happens with Neil Walker this offseason, Cecchini could very well find himself in the second base mix for next season.  Out of all the Mets prospects, his performance in the Arizona Fall League is the most important.  However, outside of a few well regarded minor league websites, you will not find much information on Cecchini’s outstanding 2-3 performance with three RBIs leading his team to victory.

There were also outstanding performances by potential future closer Corey Taylor, who outside of those who closely follow the Mets minor league system, most Mets fans don’t know much about him.

That’s also the point why Tebow’s detractors are wrong.

Look, Tebow is going to be a media circus no matter what he does.  If he played ping pong, he’d get more attention and marketing deals that Forrest Gump ever did.  Instead of football or ping pong, Tebow is playing baseball, and he is getting attention for his actions both on and off the field.

If most are being honest, they wouldn’t know when Arizona Fall League Games are being played or what the results of those games would be.  It is the main reason why the games are not carried on the MLB Network.  Another reason is most fans are consumed with postseason baseball, which is more than understandable.  If not for Tebow, there is a large group of some really terrific and hardcore baseball fans who wouldn’t even know the Arizona Fall League baseball games were beginning.  However, now with Tebow playing, everyone knows.  That’s a good thing because it allows a fan to check not just what Tebow did, but also what other players did in the game like Cecchini and Taylor.

More importantly, Tebow is benign.  Every team in baseball was sending a team of scouts and front office personnel to attend the Arizona Fall League.  They are not sending any more or any less because Tebow is there.  Teams have a vested interest in the Arizona Fall League because they not only want to see how their own prospects fare against the supposed other top prospects in the game, but it also allows them to see how the other top prospects up close.  You get to see how hard they work, and you get a better sense of what areas of the game they may need to improve.  You can also get a sense of how a particular player could fit into your organization.

So overall, Tebow dominated the headlines like he did in college and the NFL.  Like college and the NFL, Tebow brought more eyes to the game than would have been there in the first place.  Like his time in college and the NFL, professional scouts and front office personnel were not distracted by his performance.  Rather, they were still able to see what was happening with the prospects they believed had a brighter future as a professional player.

At the end of the day, whether or not Tebow had any impact on the man’s health or in the major leagues is still a mystery.  Depending upon your point of view, you probably already have a strong opinion on that in either direction.  Regardless of your point of view, you have to admit that Tebow drew your interest to the Arizona Fall League more than you would have had in any other season.  With Tebow drawing more interest to the sport that is a good thing no matter what your opinion is of him.

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Where’s Brad Emaus?

The first real playoff team Terry Collins managed with the Mets was in his first season with the team.  It is hard to believe now, but that team was full of players that are now members, if not significant contributors, to teams that reached the postseason this year:

Reading the names on that list, the two that immediately jump off the page are Murphy and Turner.  They jump off the page for a myriad of reasons. The first reason is the two players are currently facing off against one another in the NLDS between the Dodgers and the Nationals.  The series is tied at 1-1 in large part because Turner and Murphy have continued to be terrific postseason player.

Last year, Turner hit .526/.550/.842 with six doubles and four RBI against the Mets in the NLDS last year.  Overall, in Turner’s postseason career, he is a .500/.538/.875 hitter with six doubles, one homer, and six RBI.

Murphy was the bat that helped carried the Mets to the World Series last year.  In consecutive games, he hit homers off of Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, Jon Lester, Jake Arrieta, and Kyle Hendricks.  He would also homer off Fernando Rodney in what was a stretch of six straight games with a home run.  In addtion to the homers, Murphy’s going from first to third on a walk in Game Five of the NLDS helped changed the complexion of that game.  Additionally, up until the World Series, he had played exceptional defense (which admittedly is a rarity for him).  So far in the NLDS, Murphy is 4-6 with a walk and two RBI.  The first of the two RBI was the go-ahead RBI in Game 2 of the NLDS.

Between Turner and Murphy, the Mets had at one time two second baseman who have established themselves to be extraordinarily clutch and terrific postseason players.  They were also two players the Mets were eager to replace.

Turner was surprisingly non-tendered a contract after a 2013 season where he seemed to solidify himself as a utility or platoon player (at a minimum).  Instead, the Mets let him go with rumors circulating that he was a me-first player that didn’t hustle.  He was also characterized as a player that wasn’t progressing because he liked the night scene a little too much.  He would go to Los Angeles and blossom as a player.  The Mets internal replacement?  Eric Campbell.

When Murphy became a free agent, the Mets first aggressively pursued Ben Zobrist.  After failing to land him, the Mets quickly moved to trade for Neil Walker.  At no time did the Mets even make Murphy an offer.  Unlike Turner, Walker was an actual replacement with Walker having a great year for the Mets before needing season ending back surgery.  However, despite how good Walker’s year was, he still wasn’t anywhere near was good as Murphy was for the Nationals.

It should never have come as a surprise that both of these players were gone because the Mets, under Sandy Alderson’s reign as General Manager, never really wanted either player.  If you go back to that 2011 season, the Opening Day second baseman was Rule 5 Draft pick, Brad Emaus.  After a couple of weeks of him struggling, the Mets moved on and finally went to Murphy and Turner at second base.  Murphy would get the bulk of the playing time there until Ike Davis‘ ankle injury that allowed them to play side-by-side.  With Davis’ healing up and being ready for the 2012 season, the Mets proceeded with Murphy as the second baseman and Turner as the utility player.  As we know, that lasted just two year.

Ultimately, the Mets made the postseason this year without either player.  And yes, both players got their first chance with the Mets.  Quite possibly, neither player would be in the position they are in now without the Mets giving them a chance to prove they are major league players.  However, the Mets also made clear they didn’t want either player starting all the way back in 2011 when they anointed Emaus the everyday second baseman.  Eventually, the Mets would get their chance to move on, and they took advantage of that opportunity.

With that, Murphy and Turner are in the NLDS after the Mets lost the Wild Card Game with T.J. Rivera starting at second base.  One of those two will be in the NLCS with a chance to go to the World Series, a position the Mets thought they were going to be in as the season started.  With all that in mind, it begs the question: how much differently would the Mets season have gone if they had kept either Turner or Murphy?

 

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That Was Wild 

Baseball is funny. There was about a four month stretch where watching Mets baseball was a tedious and frustrating exercise. It was about as painful as watching Yoenis Cespedes try to play on an injured quad. 

Speaking of pain, seemingly everyone got hurt. Of all the people in the Opening Day lineup, only Curtis Granderson and Michael Conforto didn’t wind up on the disabled list at some point. With Conforto making two trips to AAA, that left Granderson as the only Met starter available all season. 

We saw something similar last year.  However, we saw last year that a team can make it to the postseason with some big trade deadline moves, a weak schedule to finish the season, and tremendous pitching. 

Well, the trade deadline wasn’t the boon it was last year. Jay Bruce would struggle mightily until the last week of the season. 

The starting pitching we all expected wasn’t there. Matt Harvey was never healthy and needed season ending surgery. Zack Wheeler had multiple setbacks during his Tommy John rehab, and he wouldn’t pitch this year. Both Steven Matz and Jacob deGrom pitched with injuries until they couldn’t anymore. Both had season ending surgeries. 

Speaking of season ending surgeries, the Mets also lost David Wright to cervical fusion surgery and Neil Walker to discectomy. Speaking of bad backs, Lucas Duda was nowhere to be found for most of the year with him suffering a stress fracture in his back. 

Still, the Mets made it back to the postseason. They did take advantage of that weak season ending schedule. Since August 20th, the Mets have the best record in baseball. How did we get here?

Well, Noah Syndergaard and his 95 MPH slider had a Cy Young caliber season. Bartolo Colon had his best season as a Met. Addison Reed and Jeurys Familia were the most dominant 8-9 combination in all of baseball. Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman became not only unlikely contributors, but also reliable starters in the stretch run. 

Offensively, Asdrubal Cabrera became the best hitter in all of baseball the final month of the season. Cespedes got healthy, and Granderson regained his stroke. Wilmer Flores and Kelly Johnson combined to reasonably replicate Walker’s production until Flores got hurt and Johnson regressed. At that point, T.J. Rivera took complete advantage of the opportunity with the 27 year old undrafted rookie playing solid defense and spraying line drives all over the field. And yes, Jose Reyes returned to the Mets after his domestic violence issues to play better than anyone could’ve reasonably expected. 

That coupled with the Giants and Cardinals playing sub .500 ball, the Mets had their 1973 window, and the Mets took full advantage. All they needed to do was win one more game. 

Fittingly, Colon got the start (pun intended). He’d get a 2-0 lead off a pair of RBI singles from Rivera and Reyes. As he has seemingly done all year, Reyes scored Travis d’Arnaud from second. As usual, it was a questionable send by Tim Teufel as the ball beat d’Arnaud to the plate. Fortunately, the throw was to the first base side of the plate, and d’Arnaud made a nifty slide to just avoid the tag. 

That’s when ghost of Phillies past Ryan Howard tried to put a damper on the party by hitting a game tying two run home run. Up until the Howard home run, he was cruising and showing no ill effects from his tendon injury. 

In the sixth, James Loney would do his best Dave Magadan impression:

He also had a Cabrera impression with an impressive bat flip. 

Of course, Cabrera would be heard from with an RBI single in the ninth. Cespedes would also be heard from, but in a completely different way altogether:

Reed and Familia locked down the eighth and ninth inning for the 51st time this season, which is by far the most in the majors. 

The last out was recorded by Conforto making a sliding catch in left. The last time a left fielder with the number 30 caught the clinching out was Cliff Floyd in 2006.  Hopefully, these Mets can have a long playoff run like that team. Honestly though, we’re hoping for more than that. 

With that, the 2016 Mets completed their 1973 Mets regular season run. Now comes the hard part. That begins Wednesday with Syndergaard taking the mound against either the Giants or Cardinals in the winner take all Wild Card Game. 

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Youth Will Be Served

When a player goes down, the natural inclination is to go seek out a veterans to be the stop gap or replacement. The reaction is understandable because you want a steady presence with someone who has proven stats. Granted, it’s most likely going to be diminished stats, but people would rather deal with that than a young player who may not be ready and could be even worse than the veteran. 

That’s why we saw the Mets make a move to re-acquire Kelly Johnson not too long after David Wright went down. It’s why the Mets acquired James Loney to replace Lucas Duda. It’s also why the Mets brought back Jose Reyes to help an injured and underperforming Mets offense. It’s also why the Mets traded for Jay Bruce rather than counting on Michael Conforto to return to form. For the most part, it has worked out for the Mets. 

With that said, Reyes is the only imported veteran who is currently producing. Johnson is mired in a 12-54 slump. Loney has hit .253/.287/.337 since the All Star Break. Bruce has hit .181/.261/.297 since joining the Mets. 

These underperforming veterans coupled with the  Neil Walker and Wilmer Flores injuries have forced the Mets to turn to some youngsters. 

T.J. Rivera has all but taken over the second base job for the rest of the year. In the five games since he became the starting second baseman, he is hitting .450/.455/.800 with two home runs. Both of those home runs proved to be game winners. For the season, he is hitting .344/.344/.492. 

Yesterday, Conforto started for Bruce, who the Mets have taken to booing after every at bat. Conforto made the most of his opportunity going 2-4 with two RBI.  In the four games he was given an opportunity to start since he was recalled when rosters expanded, Conforto has gone 4-16 with two doubles, two RBI, a walk, and a hit by pitch. 

It’s not just the offensive players that are outprodicing the veterans, it is the young pitchers as well. 

When Matt Harvey went down, the Mets understandably turned to Logan Verrett who did an admirable job filling in as a spot starter last year. Unfortunately, this year he had a 6.45 ERA as a starter in 12 starts. The Mets also went out and brought back Jon Niese who was actually worse with the Mets than he was with the Pirates before undergoing season ending knee surgery. 

With Verrett and Niese faltering and the injuries to Steven Matz and Jacob deGrom, the Mets had no choice but to go with their young pitchers.

First was Seth Lugo, who has arguably been the Mets best starter since he has joined the rotation. Lugo has made six starts going 4-1 with a 2.21 ERA and a 1.091 WHIP. Including his nine relief appearances, Lugo is 4-2 with a 2.35 ERA and a 1.043 WHIP. 

He is joined in the rotation by Robert Gsellman. Gsellman has made four starts and one relief appearance where he came in for Niese when he went down for good with his knee injury. Overall, Gsellman is 2-1 with a 3.08 ERA and a 1.405 WHIP. 

In addition to the offense and the rotation, the Mets have had Josh Smoker emerge in the bullpen. In 15 appearances, Smoker is 2-0 with a 4.38 ERA and a 1.135 WHIP while bailing the Mets out of a few jams. More impressively, he is striking out 15.3 batters per nine innings. 

Overall, these young and untested players have stepped up and helped take the Mets from an under .500 team to a team 11 games over .500 and in the top Wild Card spot. 

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Mets Need Lucas Duda

One of the reasons the Mets went out and obtained Jay Bruce at the trade deadline is the team felt they needed another power bat in the lineup other than Yoenis Cespedes.  Unfortunately, that trade hasn’t panned out well with Bruce hitting just .192/.271/.315 with just four homers and 11 RBI in 36 games as a Met.  Worse yet, the Mets gave up Dilson Herrera, who could’ve taken over as the second baseman when Neil Walker required season ending back surgery and Wilmer Flores injured his neck.

Bruce’s struggles could be alleviated if the team was getting production at first base.  However, James Loney has similarly struggled.  Since the All Star Break, Loney is hitting .249/.276/.329 with only eight extra base hits in 51 games.  These numbers are even worse when you consider Terry Collins has done all he could do to help Loney offensively by playing Flores at first against left-handed pitching.  Worse yet, Loney’s reputation as a Gold Glove caliber first baseman has been greatly overblown.  While defensive metrics for first base can be seen as imperfect, and cannot be fully trusted in a single season sample size, Loney has a -3.2 UZR and 0 DRS.  Combining that with the prior two seasons, Loney has averaged a -2.4 UZR and a -1 DRS.  Overall, these numbers speak to Loney’s lack of range and his failure to stretch on balls thrown to first base.

The solution to both of these problems would be Lucas Duda.  In 2014, Duda beat out Ike Davis to become the Mets first baseman.  In his two seasons as the Mets first baseman, Duda was a .249/.350/.483 hitter who averaged 28 homers and 82 RBI.  Entering the season, Bruce was a .248/.319/.462 hitter who averages 26 homers and 80 RBI.  Accordingly, Duda was a better power hitter and “run producer” who also got on base at a higher clip.  Naturally, Duda far surpasses Loney has a hitter.

Defensively, Duda’s poor defensive reputation really rests on one bad throw in the World Series.  Over his career, he has a 2.5 UZR and an 11 DRS.  Over the two seasons he was the everyday first baseman, Duda averaged a 0.1 UZR and a 5 DRS.  Using these advanced metrics, Duda is a much better defender than his reputation suggests, and he is a better defender than Loney.  More importantly, as Keith Hernandez consistently pointed out over the past few seasons, Duda cheats to get to each and every ball thrown by an infielder.  He stretches as far out as he can to help the Mets get the out calls on the close calls at first base.

Offensively and defensively, Duda is exactly what this Mets team needs for the stretch run and the postseason.  Unfortunately, Duda suffered a stress fracture in his lower back.  With a few setbacks during his rehabilitation, Duda was supposed to be gone for the season.  

As it turns out, he wasn’t. Duda was able to get enough stationary bike riding and batting practice in for the Mets to feel comfortable activating him from the disabled list on Saturday. Even better, he got the surprise start on Sunday. 

He would go 0-2 with a strikeout looking rusty at the plate. He was eventually lifted for Asdrubal Cabrera when the Twins brought in the left-handed Buddy Boshers to pitch the sixth. In the field, Duda was back to his normal form stretching out to give his team the best chance possible to get the base runner. 

Getting on the field was a good start. However, if the Mets are going to make a run in the postseason, they will need Duda’s bat. There are 13 games left in the season for him to get into form. Hopefully, Collins will give him every opportunity to get going before the Wild Card Game. 

If so, we have seen a hot Duda bat carry the Mets for long stretches. It just might carry the Mets to the World Series. 

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T.J. Rivera May Be the Solution to the New Second Base Problem

The Mets have 17 games remaining in their season, and at the moment, they still do not know who their second baseman is going to be on a game-to-game basis.

For most of the season, the answer was Neil Walker.  Even with him struggling in the middle of the season, at a time where he couldn’t feel his toes, he was having the best season of his career.  It was more than tying his career high in homers.  He became a much better hitter from the right side of the plate.  He was much improved defensively.  He was a big part of the Mets.  However, his season was over as he needed season ending surgery to address the herniated disc that prevented him from feeling his toes over the summer.

Fortunately, the Mets had a good backup option with Wilmer Flores and Kelly Johnson.  Flores hit .306/.346/.542 with five homers and 19 RBI in August.  He mostly did the damage against lefties, but he was also maturing as a hitter with him starting to hit against righties.  Flores didn’t need to be overexposed against righties though because Johnson was having a resurgent season as a part time player with the Mets.  In his 71 games with the Mets, Johnson has hit .269/.328/.473 with nine homers and 23 RBI in 73 games.  The Mets very well could have rode this platoon the rest of the season.  However, disaster struck again.

On Saturday, Flores slid headfirst into homeplate, and he injured his neck.  He is having difficulty just taking batting practice.  There is no telling when he will be able to fully warm up for a game let alone play again.  This would be an opportune moment for Johnson to step up, but he has been slumping.  Over the past two weeks, Johnson is hitting .188/.212/.313 with one homer and three RBI.  While Johnson has been terrific all year for the Mets, it is quite possible that he has been overexposed playing semi-regularly after the Walker injury.  Given Flores’ injury and Johnson’s slump, Terry Collins had to do something drastic, and that was starting T.J. Rivera last night.

Rivera had not started a game since the September 5th finale for AAA Las Vegas where he overtook Brandon Nimmo for the Pacific Coast League batting title.  Rivera answered the call.  He would make three terrific plays in the field.  The third one in the ninth got overlooked because Daniel Murphy busted it out of the box to beat the throw, and because, as usual, James Loney didn’t stretch.  However, it was at the plate where Rivera really stood out.  Rivera came through in the clutch time and again delivering in both of his RBI opportunities with a two out RBI single in the first and a sacrifice fly in the fifth.  When there were two outs in the top of the 10th, Rivera delivered with a home run off an 0-2 pitch from Mark Melancon, who had not allowed a home run since July 17th.  With this game, Rivera made a case for himself on a Mets team that does not have an answer to second base right now.

This is unexpected as many thought this opportunity would never come.  During the season, the Mets gave chances to Eric Campbell and Ty Kelly first while Rivera was thinking of new ways to try to get called up to the majors.  The Mets would have to go through a rash of infield injuries for him to even be considered.  He waited so long, in part, because he doesn’t fit the Mets profile.  He’s an aggressive contact hitter at the plate.  He’s not working the count.  He’s finding his pitch, and he’s going to drive it somewhere.

So no, at no point during the first 140+ games this season did anyone, especially the Mets, think that Rivera would ever be the solution at second base.  However, the Mets are looking for an answer at the position right now, and Rivera stepped in and helped the Mets win a game they lose any other time in their 54 year history.  It really might just be time for Rivera.

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