Curtis Granderson. Juan Lagares
Now that the first half of the baseball season has ceremoniously ended with the American League beating the National League in the All Star Game, it is time to see what the second half of the season looks like for the Mets.
At the moment, the Mets currently sit at fourth place in the National League East with a 39-47 record. They are 12 games behind the Nationals in the Division, and they are 10.5 games behind the Colorado Rockies for the second Wild Card. In addition to the Rockies, the Mets also trail the Cubs, Cardinals, Braves, Pirates, and Marlins.
In the second half of the season, the Mets have 68 games remaining with them split-up evenly between the home and road. At home, the Mets opponents have a combined .511 winning percentage. Their road opponents have a .499 winning percentage. The combined winning percentage of all of their opponents is .505.
The respective winning percentages are skewed by the Mets having a home series against the Dodgers and the Mets having a road series against the Astros. Taking those two series out of the equation, the respective winning percentages fall to .494 at home, .481 on the road, and .488 combined. More to the point, if the Mets can just hold their own in those six games, the Mets have a slate of winnable games in front of them.
The question is whether the Mets will have enough to win those winnable games. At the moment, the Mets are planning to sell. If there are takers, the Mets will likely part ways with Jay Bruce, Asdrubal Cabrera, Lucas Duda, Curtis Granderson, and Addison Reed. If any one of these players are moved, the Mets chances of winning games will likely take a hit. That goes double for Reed, who right now is the only reliable arm in the bullpen.
But maybe the Mets don’t sell.
Right out of the break, the Mets host the Rockies and the Cardinals. The Rockies are in the middle of a stretch that has seen them lost 13 of their last 17 games. It’s not exactly like the Rockies lost just against the best teams in baseball either. They were swept by the Giants, and they split a series with the Reds.
The Mets did just play a close series against the Cardinals. There is a legitimate reason to believe that with a different setting in Citi Field, the Mets could flip the script. That becomes more feasible when you consider the Cardinals are a dismal road team.
After that, Mets get to face the Athletics and Padres who are two of the worst teams in baseball. At that point, it is certainly possible the Mets could be in a different position come trade deadline time. Maybe the Mets will be in a position to add to the bullpen rather than decimate it with a Reed trade. As we see, they certainly have some pieces to trade to do that.
Ultimately, that has been the frustrating part of this season. The door has been open the whole time, and the Mets have yet to truly enter into a race for the postseason. The good news is there are about two weeks until the trade deadline. At that point, the Mets will have a clear direction.
They will be either gearing up for another improbable run to the postseason, or they will have a youth movement with the Mets finally giving a chance to Amed Rosario, Dominic Smith, and Gavin Cecchini.
To that end, no matter what happens over the next couple of weeks, the fans will have reason to watch in August and September. You will either have a team racing for the postseason supplemented by players coming back from injury, or they will have some young players beginning to make their mark on the league.
This year has mostly been a struggle for Michael Conforto. He has dealt with a wrist injury and declining production. His manager, Terry Collins, has refused to play him against lefties and against tough right-handers like Jose Fernandez and Justin Verlander. He was sent down to the minors for a long stint to rediscover his stroke. Upon being recalled, he was expected to learn both center and right field on the fly.
Through it all, Conforto has just hit .224/301/.457 with 11 homers and 33 RBI in 81 games. Based upon these numbers, Conforto has not taken the next step like everyone thought he was going to do this year. He certainly didn’t build upon his great April. It doesn’t matter. The Mets should play him everyday anyway.
The fact of the matter is Conforto has the highest upside out of anyone currently available to play for the Mets. On a team full of left-hand hitting corner outfielders, his upside is the highest. Consider this:
- Jay Bruce is having a career best year that has seen him hit .259/.311/.551.
- Curtis Granderson is 35 years old, and he is hitting .233/.328/.437.
- Alejandro De Aza has had to play out of his mind since July 1st to bring his season slash line to .201/.294/.306.
- Brandon Nimmo is hitting .239/.297/.288 in 20 games.
Conforto is much more capable than any of those numbers. Just this April, we saw him hit .365/.442/.676. Since he was recalled from AAA, we have seen him try to get back to hitting the ball to the opposite field, and as a result, he hit an opposite field home run in Comerica Park.
Playing Conforto everyday is not without its risks. He is only hitting .233/.327/.395 in his 16 games and 11 starts since being recalled from AAA. He is still only hitting .133/.185/.150 with one extra base hit in 60 career at bats against left-handed pitching. He is still a developing player.
With all that said, no one has his upside. Conforto is the only Met who is truly capable to replacing Yoenis Cespedes‘ bat while Cespedes is on the disabled list. With that in mind, it is worth the risk to play Conforto everyday. At this point, the Mets need all the offensive help they can get, and Conforto is the best equipped to do that. It’s why he was drafted, and it is why the Mets called him up last year despite his never having played above AA.
Overall, if the Mets are going to go anywhere, they need more offense. Moreover, they need Conforto to start hitting like he is capable of hitting. The only way either is going to happen is for Conforto to play everyday.
When I first started this blog, much of the focus at that time was on why everyone thought Michael Conforto should be called up to the majors. Back then, it was assumed the Mets were not going to add offense thereby making him the only source of offense available. We’re not in this world right now.
After the trade deadline moves, the Mets now have a major league roster of major league hitters. So far, Terry Collins has shown he intends to play the following everyday: Lucas Duda, Daniel Murphy, Ruben Tejada. Curtis Granderson, and Yoenis Cespedes. Prior to the Cespedes trade, he seemed to have a Kirk Nieuwenhuis/Juan Lagares platoon, but he seems to have done away with that.
Once the Cespedes trade was completed, Granderson and Cespedes have played CF. In turn, Lagares and Nieuwenhuis have been on the bench. Kelly Johnson has played a corner outfield position in those games. These are the games Nieuwenhuis would’ve started as the Nationals were throwing righties. We now know Nieuwenhuis is injured.
However, what we don’t know is if Collins has eschewed the CF platoon for more offense. If so, I’m not sure that was the right move with the return of Duda’s bat, Granderson continuing his good year, and Cespedes’ bat. They are no longer as desperate for offense as they used to be. Now, they need to sure up their outfield defense, especially when their pitchers give up a lot of flyballs. To his credit, Collins is using Lagares as a late inning defensive replacement.
With Nieuwenhuis going on the DL, his spot on the roster has gone to Conforto, who must play everyday. If he’s not playing everyday, he needs to be in Las Vegas. This means the Mets OF for two weeks, minimum, must have Conforto in left, Cespedes in center, and Granderson in right (barring Michael Cuddyer coming off the DL). At the very least, Conforto is a step up from Johnson defensively. However, it is nowhere enough of an upgrade to justify sitting Lagares’ glove.
The natural question is who should the Mets have called up, if not Conforto. That’s the problem. For all the moves, there are still some holes in this organization, especially from a depth perspective. Begrudgingly, I would’ve called up Darrell Ceciliani. You don’t need him to play everyday, and he can play all three OF positions.
I would further endorse this decision as it seemed the Mets were fine with Johnson playing the corner outfield positions during the biggest series of the year. Let Ceciliani be the 25th man while the major leaguers play everyday. Let Conforto play everyday in the minors and come up in September for the stretch drive (like they should do with Kevin Plawecki).
So while I initially endorsed calling up Conforto, I am now against it. My opinion has nothing to do with his 0-12 streak. He looks like he can play. I was very impressed with him. I’m just saying the dynamic of this team has changed and so has the need for him. I only wish the Mets would change their mindset.