I have readily admitted that I have written too much about Dario Alvarez. My blog is about two months old, and I probably have more Alvarez posts than anyone. When Alvarez got hurt, I thought I was done with him, at least for the season. I was wrong:
Heard Alvarez looked good facing batters at instructs the other day. Got off the mound well. Slider was sharp. https://t.co/ouYkqa9O2t
— Marc Carig (@MarcCarig) September 30, 2015
Well, Alvarez is back, and he might be coming back just in time. The Mets are still looking for lefties in the bullpen. It’s part of the reason Jon Niese is out there. Unlike Niese, Alvarez is a true LOOGY and bullpen arm.
There’s only five games left to see if Alvarez is ready for game action. This roster selection process just got a lot more complicated.
Overall, Matt Harvey may be the best pitcher on the Mets. He may have the best stuff he may have that clutch gene. However, he had not been the Mets pitcher this year. That honor goes to Jacob deGrom.
deGrom leads the Mets in ERA, strikeouts, WHIP, ERA+, WHIP, and hair. By every measure, he is the logical choice to be the Game One starter. He’s the guy the Mets want on the mound to start the playoffs. He’s the guy you want in Game a Five if I comes to it. However, it sounds like he’s getting it by default:
Terry also said Harvey will not be making six playoff starts so don't expect a Bumgarner redux.
— Matt Ehalt (@MattEhalt) September 29, 2015
No one except the Game One NLDS starter could possibly pitch in six postseason games. The only other way it could happen is if the Mets started someone on three day’s rest, which is something the Mets are probably not going to do. The effect of this statement is to say Harvey’s our best pitcher, but with innings limits, we’re going with deGrom.
That’s not fair to deGrom, who has had a great year. He was an All Star. He leads the Mets in almost every statistical category. He’s earned the Game One start.
The Mets should just come out and say that.
After the Mets clinched, the rumblings began that Bartolo Colon may be in the postseason rotation:
https://twitter.com/jareddiamond/status/648148020169732096
Regardless of Steven Matz‘s recent sofa injury, it seems like Colon may have had an inside track to the NLDS rotation anyway:
Sandy said Colon's experience vs Matz inexperience is a factor in the 4th rotation spot in the playoffs. #mets
— Michael Baron (@michaelgbaron) September 29, 2015
There’s some merit to the decision. Experience can help calm nerves in the playoffs. Colon doesn’t walk anyone. Most importantly, he was good in his only start against the Dodgers this year (even if it was a loss).
However, I’m having some trouble trying to reconcile Colon in the rotation with the fact that Matz will definitely be on the playoff roster. The reason why I’m having trouble is because the Mets have been steadfast in saying Matz will not pitch in the bullpen. Therefore, I think the Mets announced, without announcing it, Matz will be the fourth starter.
I think it’s the right move. The Dodgers have a lot of lefties in the lineup. Colon has not been good against over .500 teams. Matz has better stuff. It’s time to get Matz and his grandfather ready for Game 4 . . . if necessary.
If rumors are correct, the Mets will go with the four man rotation of Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Matt Harvey, and Steven Matz. I put them purposefully in that order because that’s how the Nets intend to line them up in the playoffs.
These four pitchers have had zero postseason appearances. In fact, as a group, they have less than five years of experience. This just highlights the total lack of postseason experience for the entire Mets staff. Overall, there are only three pitchers on the Mets who have any playoff experience:
- Bartolo Colon (10 starts) 2-4, 3.70 ERA, 58.1 IP, 1.389 WHIP
- Tyler Clippard (3 appearances) 0-0, 1.50 ERA, 6 IP, 0 SV, 0.667 WHIP
- Eric O’Flaherty (1 appearance) 0-0, 0.00 ERA, 1 IP, 0 SV, 2.00 WHIP
Unless his back prevents him, Clippard will be on the postseason roster. I believe the Mets will find a spot for Colon even if he isn’t starting. There’s no shot that O’Flaherty makes the team.
I’m not concerned at all. This was the case with the 1991 Braves rotation,nand they went to the World Series. The same goes for the 2003 Marlins. The 2008 Giants had a young core of starting pitchers they relied upon to win their first World Series in San Francisco. K-Rod burst on the scene on the 2002 Angels World Series Championship team. There’s another, better example for Mets fans. 1986.
In 1986, the Mets had Dwight Gooden (3 major league seasons), Ron Darling (4 major league seasons), Bobby Ojeda (7 major league season), and Sid Fernandez (4 major league seasons) make starts. Combined they had more than triple the major league experience of this current group of pitchers. However, they were still young and had zero postseason experience. The lack of postseason experience didn’t hold them back. The reason was their talent.
That’s right. For all the talk about what wins in the playoffs, we always forget the talent gap. This Mets rotation is the most talented in the NL, most likely all of baseball. If I have to choose between experience and talent, I pick talent every time.
It looks like the Mets are as well. Then again what choice do they have?
It was no secret the Mets were looking for an OF at the trade deadline. At first, it seemed they were close to acquiring Carlos Gomez. Then the Jay Bruce deal fell apart. After those deals, the Mets finally obtained Yoenis Cespedes, who has been amongst the best players this year.
I thought about this whirlwind when the Mets clinched the NL East. The final play was Bruce striking out. When he struck out, I thought about the saying “the best trades are the ones you don’t make.” That certainly applied to Bruce. Bruce ultimately stayed with the Reds and floundered. In August, he hit .150/.185/.292. He’s been a little better in September hitting .206/.257/.443.
Gomez, on the other hand, wound up getting traded. He joined an Astros team that was in first place and was 13 games over .500. Houston is now in second place, only eight games over .500, and in a dog fight just to make the playoffs. In fact, if the season ended today, they would miss the playoffs. While it has been a team effort, Gomez certainly hasn’t helped with his .234/.282/.379 line with the Astros.
Instead, the Mets got Cespedes, who has hit .294/.338/.624. This is the best stretch of his career. The Mets went from second place and only three games over .500 to a easy ride to winning the NL East. Maybe the Mets still win the NL East with Bruce or Gomez, but I doubt it would’ve been as easy.
The Mets got lucky the first two trades fell through because they wound up getting the right player. As a result, the Mets are now both lucky and good.
As the Mets have clinched the NL East winning and losing have taken a back seat to figuring out who will be on the postseason roster. These are almost like Spring Training Games. If you care about the final score, the Mets lost 4-3.
Personally, I was more concerned with Jon Niese‘s relief appearance. He entered the game after Bartolo Colon left after five with the Mets trailing 3-1. In his first inning of work, Niese faced the minimum with some help from Yoenis Cespedes:
Run on @ynscspds at your own risk. http://t.co/UfrGuIYL9r #LGM pic.twitter.com/v4GVzecc7R
— New York Mets (@Mets) September 30, 2015
I was surprised Niese came out for the seventh. I was disappointed it didn’t go well. He would get the first two outs, which included a strike out of Travis d’Arnaud‘s brother. The next two Phillies got on, and Niese was lifted. Erik Goeddel, who’s also battling to be on the playoff roster, allowed an inherited run ER to score before getting a strikeout to end the inning.
Overall, Niese’s appearance was uneven. There was only one hard hit ball, but he was bailed out by Cespedes. Lefties went 2-3 with two singles against him. He seemed to throw a little more sidearm than usual. I would say this is a starting off point, but he did not leave much room for error with only five games left in the season.
In terms of highlights, Lucas Duda hit his 100th and 101st career homeruns. The aforementioned Cespedes throw in the sixth, and the Michael Conforto diving catch in the eighth.
However, the important part of the night was Niese was in the bullpen, and he showed he might be able to handle it.
After a heartbreaking loss in Game 7 of the 2006 NLCS, the Mets entered the 2007 season as favorites to at least win the BL East. Jimmy Rollins had other ideas proclaiming the Phillies “the team to beat in the NL East – finally.”
Rollins backed it up with a historic Mets collapse and his winning the NL MVP. In 2007, Rollins hit .346/.391/.667 against the Mets. As we all know, the Mets would collapse again in 2008. These memories have haunted Mets fans ever since.
The Mets now face him and his former and new teammate, noted Mets killer, Chase Utley, in the NLDS. Once again, Rollins and Utley stand in the Mets way. I know Mets fans are more upbeat since clinching a playoff berth, and they are expecting an NLDS victory. Losing to Rollins and Utley now would inflict more harm on Mets fans than those two already have.
If the Mets win, they will have exercised those two demons from 2007 & 2008. With Adam Wainwright possibly returning to the Cardinals bullpen, they might be able to exorcise another demon in the NLCS.
Look, this is Sandy Alderson’s team. He decided to keep the players he kept and trade the players he traded. He pulled off the trades and signed the free agents. However, he was able to do a lot of what he did because he was left with good players after Omar Minaya was terminated.
Here are the players in the 40 man roster who have a link to Omar Minaya (asterisked players are players obtained with players combined by Minaya and Alderson):
Jerry Blevins – obtained for 2010 draft pick Matt den Dekker.
Eric Campbell – 2008 draft pick.
Darrell Ceciliani – 2009 draft pick.
Travis d’Arnaud – part of the R.A. Dickey trade. Dickey was a free agent signing. Josh Thole was a 2005 draft pick. Mike Nickeas was initially obtained by trade in 2006.
Jacob deGrom – 2010 draft pick.
Lucas Duda – 2007 draft pick.
Jeurys Familia – 2007 amateur free agent signing.
Wilmer Flores – 2007 amateur free agent signing.
Erik Goeddel – 2010 draft pick.
Matt Harvey – 2010 draft pick
Dilson Herrera* – part of Marlon Byrd/John Buck trade. Buck was part of the Dickey trade (see d’Arnaud).
Juan Lagares – 2006 amateur free agent signing.
Steven Matz – 2009 draft pick.
Jenrry Mejia – 2007 amateur free agent signing.
Akeel Morris -2010 draft pick.
Daniel Murphy – 2006 draft pick.
Bobby Parnell – 2005 draft pick.
Addison Reed* – obtained in exchange for Matt Koch and Miller Diaz (signed by Mets in 2009).
Hansel Robles – 2008 amateur free agent.
Noah Syndergaard – part of Dickey trade (see d’Arnaud).
Ruben Tejada – 2006 amateur free agent.
Again, these players are in the roster because Alderson kept them. The decision of who to keep and trade is important. That is what makes them Alderson’s players and team. Additionally, while It was Alderson that hired Terry Collins, it was Minaya who brought him into the Mets organization.
However, it is important to truly acknowledge Minaya’s role, especially when he has been unfairlyand wrongly marginalized.
You see I was on the same Jet Blue flight as Omar Minaya. The photo with this post was Minaya and me in the terminal before the flight. He was accessible to Mets fans who wanted to shake his hand and take a picture. No one, and I mean no one, had the “courage” to mock him on the flight.
Additionally, this should dispel the notion that Minaya left the Mets with a depleted farm system. On the contrary, he built a strong farm system that helped make up this team. Minaya had his faults, and he probably deserved to be fired when he was. That doesn’t mean we should ignore his work.
It doesn’t mean that we shouldn’t extend our gratitude to him for what he left behind.
There are two choices for 4. The first is Ron Swoboda, who was a key contributor to the 1969 Mets World Series victory:
However, my choice for Magic Man Number 4 will be Lenny Dykstra:
I chose Dykstra mostly because I got to see him play. I chose him because he was amazing in the 1986 postseason.
In the NLCS, he hit .304/.360/.565. He hit a walk off two run homerun in Game 3 of the NLCS to give the Mets a 6-5 win. He got the Game 6 ninth inning rally started with a leadoff triple. Everyone who watched this NLCS discuss the importance of winning in six with NLCS MVP Mike Scott scheduled to pitch Game 7.
In the World Series, Dykstra hit .296/.345/.519. Strangely enough, Dykstra was so big in big games that this was his worst ever postseason series. Dykstra lead off Game 3 in Boston with a homerun. This was important as the Mets came to Boston after losing the first two at Shea.
When Dykstra did all of this, he was only 23 years old. It shows that it’s not an issue of experience come October. Rather, it’s an issue of who has ice water running through their veins. This is important to keep in mind because the Mets run largely rests with their young pitching.
The young pitching has met every challenge thus far. As Dykstra shows us, they will meet the challenges they face en route to the World Series.