Mets Have Payroll Concerns Already

On October 29, 2010, in the wake of the Madoff scandal, Sandy Alderson took over as the Mets General Manager. Alderson inherited a team with some big stars like Carlos Beltran, Jose Reyes, Johan Santana, and David Wright. With that he also inherited a team who finished the 2010 season with a hefty $126 million payroll, which ranked sixth in the major leagues. Due to some backloaded contracts reaching their expiration, the 2011 Opening Day payroll was actually inflated to $143 million.

Alderson went to work dismantling a team that was disappointing on the field in what was the beginning of a real rebuilding process. Luis Castillo was released before the season started. Oliver Perez was not too far behind him. Getting rid of the underperforming players the fans hated was the easy part. The hard part was what ensued.

The Mets first traded Francisco Rodriguez, who was getting dangerously close to having an expensive $17.5 million option vest. Then he traded Carlos Beltran for Zack Wheeler. Surprisingly, Alderson didn’t trade Jose Reyes, who was the National League leader in batting average. Instead, he would let Reyes become a free agent, and he would recoup a draft pick when Reyes signed a $106 million contract with the Marlins.

And just like that what was once a $143 million payroll became a $95 million payroll in a little more than a year. In subsequent years, the Mets would let Johan Santana‘s contract expire and not reinvest the money. They would release Jason Bay, and again re-invest the money. Then the Mets would shop R.A. Dickey after he won the Cy Young Award.  They obtained Noah Syndergaard and Travis d’Arnaud in exchange for him which was a sure sign the Mets were more invested in rebuilding than contending.

It was also a sign that the Mets were cash strapped due to the Madoff scandal. The payroll would reach its nadir in 2o14 when it was actually $85 million, which ranked 21st in the major leagues. A bewildered and frankly angry fan base was left wondering when, if ever, the Wilpons were going to permit the Mets to have a payroll commensurate with their standing as a big market major league franchise.

Now, over the past two seasons, the Mets payroll has gone from $85 million in 2014 to $101 million to start the 2015 season. In that offseason, the Mets actually went out and signed Michael Cuddyer to help them become a more complete team. When Cuddyer faltered and David Wright would suffer from spinal stenosis, the Mets made moves and added payroll. The team first traded for Kelly Johnson and Juan Uribe (even if the Braves paid part of their salary). The Mets then acquired Yoenis Cespedes and what was a left of his $10.5 million contract. In 2015, the Mets spent a little more, but more importantly they spent what they needed to spend to compete.

In 2016, the Mets initially put out signs they were not moving off their roughly $100 million payroll when they signed Alejandro De Aza to platoon with Juan Lagares in center. It was perceived as a sign the Mets were not going to spend; it was a sign they were not willing to go the extra mile to get Cespedes. But then something happened. Cespedes didn’t find that massive deal on the free agent market. Instead, he re-signed with the Mets for $27.5 million in 2016. After 2016, Cespedes had the option to opt out of the remaining two years $47.5 million left on his contract.

With the Mets paying Cespedes a hefty salary to start the season, the Mets Opening Day payroll rose all the way to $135 million. Before Cespedes was re-signed, there was some doubt about whether it was really the insurance on Wright’s contract that allowed them to make those in-season moves, the re-signing of Cespedes calmed down a fan base that worried when or if the Mets would be willing to spend. Better yet, when the Mets had some issues scoring runs, they went out and traded for Jay Bruce.

Surprisingly now, we are back at the point of wondering if the Mets are willing to spend. The $135 million payroll was a positive step, but it is still less than the first payroll Alderson had with the Mets, and it was only ranked 15th in the majors. Cespedes is a free agent, and no one is quite sure if the Mets will re-sign him, look to acquire a big name free agent like Jose Bautista, or if they are going to stick with the Michael Conforto–Curtis Granderson-Bruce outfield. The Mets also have a number of other areas to address this offseason.

The first step was Neil Walker accepting the $17.2 million qualifying offer. With that, according to ESPN‘s Adam Rubin, the Mets current payroll obligations are $124 million. That is just $10 million under what the 2015 Opening Day Payroll was. If the Mets were to re-sign Cespedes, or another big name free agent, the payroll is going to go well past the $135 million mark.

The problem is the Mets need to go even further than that. Not only do they need Cespedes, or a reasonable facsimile, they also need to re-sign Jerry Blevins and Fernando Salas, or again, a reasonable facsimile thereof. The Mets may also want to add another backup catcher given Travis d’Arnaud‘s injury concerns, Rene Rivera‘s lack of offense, and Kevin Plawecki having two disappointing seasons. The Mets may also want to sign a veteran starter considering the health issues of their rotation and Bartolo Colon having signed with the Braves this past week. There’s a lot the Mets need to address here, and it isn’t likely that $10 million is going to cover all of it.

So again, we are back at the point of wondering how far the Mets are willing to go to compete. Will they have a payroll in the upper half of all of baseball? Do they have the funds to spend like a big market club? At this point, no one knows the answers to these questions. While Mets fans may be apprehensive, it is too soon to to pass judgment. That time will come when we see how the Mets handle the Cespedes situation.

page top

Trivia Friday – Mets Highest Paid Player

With this offseason, we have seen the Mets already lose Bartolo Colon to free agency, and we have seen Neil Walker return to play another season.  At this point, we still do not know who will definitively be on the 2017 Mets, nor do we know how much money the Mets have to spend this offseason.  What we do know is how much the Mets have spent in prior seasons, and who the highest paid player was.  Can you name the Mets highest paid players during the Sandy Alderson regime?  Good luck!


Johan Santana, David Wright, Yoenis Cespedes

page top

Seth Lugo Needs To Throw More Curveballs

Using Statcast data, Mike Petriello of MLB.com determined pitchers have begun throwing not just more curveballs, but also curveballs with a higher spin rate. Moreover, pitchers are more inclined to use a curveball in any point in the count. One of the major reasons for pitchers using more curveballs is the results it generates. According to Statcast, batters do not have a lot of success against the curveball:

Curves above 2,600 rpm in 2016
Average: .196
Exit velo: 86.8 mph
Whiffs per swing: 32.2 percent

Curves below 2,600 rpm in 2016
Average: .225
Exit velo: 87.7 mph
Whiffs per swing: 30.2 percent

As noted by Petriello, teams are well aware of the trend, and they have been asking their pitchers to throw more curveballs. Notable examples have included Clayton Kershaw, Collin McHugh, and Rich Hill. Over the past few seasons, pitchers who have gone to an increase usage of their curveball have seen better results.

This data is promising for Seth Lugo. Lugo has the highest curveball spin rate ever recorded. In fact, Lugo actually has 43 of the top 50 spin rates ever recorded in the Statcast Era.

When Lugo has gone to his curveball, he has been extremely successful. According to Brooks Baseball, Lugo’s curveball was his toughest pitch to hit. When he threw it, batters whiffed 34% of the time – most notably was the strikeout he recorded on Anthony Rizzo. When batters were actually able to make contact with the curveball, it was a groundball 52% of the time. As a result, batters slugging percentage off of the pitch was a woeful .294.

However, despite the curveball being such a dominant pitch for Lugo, he only threw the pitch 16% of the time. That made it his second least used pitch. Indeed, Lugo mainly threw fastballs, sinkers, and sliders in 2016. Overall, this was effective as Lugo was 5-2 with a 2.67 ERA and a 1.094 WHIP. Still, there were warning signs Lugo is due for regression as evidenced by his 4.33 FIP. Overall, Lugo’s numbers were mostly fueled by his ability to limit the damage with runners on base and in scoring position. In fact, batters only hit .149 against him with runners in scoring position and .179 with runners on base.

Depending on your point of view, Lugo’s numbers last year were the result of an innate skill, pure luck, or somewhere in the middle. Quite possibly, it was Lugo’s use of the curveball in high leverage situations that helped him out of those jams. As noted above, batters have a high whiff rate and hit many groundballs against the curveball – that goes double for Lugo. Therein lies the key to his success in 2017 and beyond.

With Bartolo Colon leaving in free agency, there may very well be an opportunity for Lugo to pitch in the rotation at some point next season. If Lugo uses his curveball much more frequently, it is possible he could replicate the numbers he produced last season.  Perhaps, he could put together an even better season next year.

Hopefully, he will.  As it stands now, other than Noah Syndergaard, there are no guarantees as to who will be ready to start the year in the rotation.  Early word on Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, and Steven Matz are positive.  There has been little to no news on Zack Wheeler since he was shut down with elbow discomfort.  With that in mind, Lugo could find himself in a competition with Robert Gsellman for the last spot in the rotation.  While Gsellman is coming off a good rookie season himself, he doesn’t have one pitch that can match Lugo’s curveball.  As it turns out, not many do.

page top

Mets Final Season Grades – Spot Starters

Throughout the season, I attempted to grade the different Mets players performances for each month of the season. In determining the year end grades, the aggregate of the monthly grades given was considered, but it wasn’t conclusive.  For example, one player’s awful month could be more than offset by having an incredible month.  Also, those decisions were made in the heat of the moment.  There has been a cooling off period in giving these finals grades, and with that, there is time for reflection.  It should also be noted the Wild Card Game did have some impact on these grades as that game was part of the story of the 2016 Mets.  Overall, the final grades assessed considered the monthly grades, but also took into account that player(s) overall impact on the Mets season (good or bad).    For the seventh set of grades, here are the Mets spot starters:

Logan Verrett C-

In 2015 with the Mets rotation nearing innings limits on the eve of the postseason, notably Matt Harvey, Verrett rose to the challenge, and he showed himself to be not just a capable bullpen arm, but also someone who can be a reliable spot starter.  Unfortunately, as good as Verrett was in 2015, he was that poor in 2016.

Initially, Verrett did well in the rotation after making two April spot starts for Jacob deGrom.  In those starts, he pitched six innings and allowed no runs.  However, it was when he was called upon to fill-in for an injured Harvey that Verrett really struggled, and he fell apart in August.  Overall, Verrett made 12 starts going 1-6 with a 6.45 ERA and a 1.617 ERA.  There’s no sugar coating how poor those numbers are.  So why wasn’t his grade lower?

Well, Verrett was useful out of the bullpen.  In his 23 relief appearances, he was 2-2 with a 2.84 ERA and a 1.453 WHIP.  His WHIP was quite poor, but overall, he was effective out of the pen, and for the most part, he went multiple innings.  There’s value in that, and it should be recognized.

Ultimately, what we learned with Verrett is he may not be as capable bouncing back and forth between the rotation and bullpen as we once thought.  It might just be that his stuff will not permit him to go more than two times through a lineup.  Ideally, Verrett is no more than a long man in the pen or a AAA starter called-up to make a start.  He’s not both.

Rafael Montero F

What was the most surprising part of Montero’s season?  Was it his demotion to AA or was it his getting called-up to the majors two times last season?  The answer actually is it was Montero getting important September starts for a team trying to claim one of the two Wild Card spots.

It was the same old Montero.  In the minors, he pounded the strike zone, and he gave the Mets some hope they could salvage him.  In the majors, he was flat out terrible.  In his three starts and nine relief appearances, Montero was 0-1 with an 8.05 ERA and a 2.053 WHIP, and he may not have been that good.  It is still incredible that he hasn’t been taken off the 40 man roster yet.

Jon Niese F

Speaking of terrible, the Mets admitted their mistake in signing Antonio Bastardo to a two year deal, and they traded him to the Pirates to bring back Niese.  The Mets were desperate for pitching at the time, and there was some hope Niese would improve working with pitching coach Dan Warthen again.  The Mets hopes were quickly dashed.

Niese made two starts and four relief appearances for the Mets.  In those games, he was 0-1 with an 11.45 ERA and a 2.000 WHIP.  He was even worse than he was with the Pirates, and remember, he was amidst the worst year of his career with the Pirates.  In his last start, and most likely last appearance ever wearing a Mets uniform, Niese lasted a third of an inning before removing himself from the game with a knee injury.  Not too long thereafter, Niese had season ending knee surgery.  It will be interesting to see what the market will be for him this offseason.

Seth Lugo A

Lugo went from a struggling pitcher in AAA who was removed from the rotation to being one of the Mets best starting pitchers down the stretch.

During the season, we saw Lugo had the single best pitch out of anyone in the minor leagues when he embarassed Anthony Rizzo with his curveball.  As it turns out, if you measure curveballs by revolution, Lugo has one of the best curveballs in the sport.  We also saw that when Lugo needed a little extra on his fastball to get out of a jam, he could ramp it up all the way to 96 MPH.  In that way, Lugo was a bit of a throwback.  Lugo relied mostly on his B fastball and secondary pitches, but when he was in trouble, or he needed to put a batter away, he took his stuff to the next gear.  It could be one of the reasons he was so successful limiting the damage with runners in scoring position.

Overall, Lugo made eight starts and nine relief appearances for the Mets.  As a starter, he was 5-1 with a 2.68 ERA and a 1.149 WHIP.  As a reliever, he was 0-1 with a 2.65 ERA and a 0.941 WHIP.  For the season, Lugo was 5-2 with a 2.67 ERA and a 1.094 WHIP.  Not a bad season for a pitcher that got booted from the AAA rotation.

Robert Gsellman A

In the aforementioned game Niese left due to injury, it was Gsellman who relieved him.  In that game, Gsellman began to make a name for himself.  Gsellman would get better and better from start to start culminating in his seven inning, no run, eight strikeout game against the Phillies in the Mets last home regular season game.

During the season, Gsellman featured a power sinker and some still developing, but still effective secondary pitches.  That power sinker helped Gsellman go 4-2 with a 2.42 ERA and a 1.276 WHIP in what was effectively nine starts.  Gsellman was better than even the Mets could have hoped he would be.  With the departure of Bartolo Colon in free agency coupled with the questions surrounding the rotation, mainly Zack Wheeler, Gsellman may very well be competing with Lugo for a spot in the Opening Day rotation.

Gabriel Ynoa C-

The main thing we learned about Ynoa during the 2016 season was the 23 year old just wasn’t ready to pitch in the major leauges.  However, due to a rash of injuries, the Mets brought him up sooner than he should have been, and they immediately put him in a relief role he was ill suited.

Ynoa would make 10 appearances for the Mets.  That included three starts in games he frankly should not have been starting.  Ynoa was called upon to start games despite not having made a start in nearly a month due to injuries and Montero being Montero.  Overall, Ynoa was 1-0 with a 6.38 ERA and a 1.800 WHIP.  It is too soon to judge what type of career he will have, and the hope is that Ynoa will be better for the experience.

Editor’s Note: the grades for April, May, June, July, August, and September/October can be found by clicking the links.

page top

Is Now the Time to Extend Matt Harvey?

Back in 2014, Jaime Garcia had surgery to have a rib removed in order to alleviate his thoracic outlet syndrome.  He came back about a year after the surgery was performed, and he had a strong 2015 season going 10-6 with a 2.43 ERA and a 1.049 WHIP in 20 starts.  So far this year, he has struggled a bit with a 7-6 record with a 3.98 ERA and a 1.363 WHIP in 19 starts.  On the whole, it would be fair to say Garcia is a success story for players who have had surgery to alleviate their thoracic outlet syndrome.

His former Cardinals teammate, Chris Carpenter, was not as lucky.  He would have the surgery in 2012, and he would never be able to return.  Now, there are a world of differences between Garcia and Carpenter, and this is probably too simplistic a conclusion, but overall the Cardinals franchise has had a 50% success rate in pitchers returning from thoracic outlet syndrome surgery.

Fact of the matter is, we still don’t know enough to know how a pitcher will return from the surgery.  For every Kenny Rogers, there is a Jeremy Bonderman.  There is the Garcias and the Matt Harrisons of the world who have returned to initially pitch well after the surgery only to see their future performance regress.  Overall, there are a lot of question marks about not only how successful the surgery is in restoring a pitcher to full health, but also what the lasting effects of the surgery is.  This is the point where Matt Harvey is right now.

With Harvey having the surgery, he missed the remainder of the 2016 season, but really he missed more.  Harvey wasn’t right throughout the 2016 season.  Accordingly, the Mets missed out on a real chance to challenge for the division, and for his part, Harvey missed out on his chance to build off of a strong 2015 season that culminated in his great Game 5 World Series start.  While the surgery was successful, and Harvey has been reportedly been long tossing and looks ready to start the 2017 season.  What Harvey will be in 2017 still remains a mystery.

In 2013, Harvey helped make the Mets a much more relevant franchise being a Cy Young contender and staring the All Star Game before his succumbing to a UCL tear requiring Tommy John surgery.  Last year, Harvey was part of a starting rotation that led the Mets to not only winning the National League East, but also the pennant.  The Mets are a better team with him in the rotation, and they will be a better team going forward with a healthy Harvey in the fold.  The question is not only if he will be healthy, but also for how long will he be effective?  These are the questions hanging over the heads of both Harvey and the Mets organization.

The Mets could let Harvey work his way back from the surgery and hopefully return to form ext year when he will be 28 years old.  From there, they could let him pitch for a year and a half before determining whether they want to open the pocketbooks to make Harvey the pitcher they want to extend.  It might be the prudent way to go.  However, it could also prove to be the expensive route as well.

Realistically speaking, there may be no better opportunity for the Mets to discuss an extension with Harvey.  Given his previous comments on the matter and the uncertainty of his future, Harvey may be more open to a contract extension now than he ever was or will ever be.  Scott Boras may not prove to be an impediment as evidenced by the Stephen Strasburg extension with the Washington Nationals.  There may be an opportunity here.

As we have seen, the strength of this Mets team is pitching.  When healthy, the rotation of Harvey, Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, and Steven Matz helps overcome the Mets offensive issues.  This is a rotation that helped the Mets go to the World Series last year.  However, this is a rotation that may ultimately need to be broken up as arbitration and free agency may prove too costly to keep them all together.  If you make a move on Harvey now, you would most likely get him at a discount thereby allowing you to allocate that money towards a deGrom or a Syndergaard.  With that in mind, the Mets may be best suited to rolling the dice and making a move to keep Harvey for the long term.

page top

Mets Final Season Grades – Opening Day Rotation

Throughout the season, I attempted to grade the different Mets players performances for each month of the season. In determining the year end grades, the aggregate of the monthly grades given was considered, but it wasn’t conclusive.  For example, one player’s awful month could be more than offset by having an incredible month.  Also, those decisions were made in the heat of the moment.  There has been a cooling off period in giving these finals grades, and with that, there is time for reflection.  It should also be noted the Wild Card Game did have some impact on these grades as that game was part of the story of the 2016 Mets.  Overall, the final grades assessed considered the monthly grades, but also took into account that player(s) overall impact on the Mets season (good or bad).    For the sixth set of grades, here are the Mets Opening Day Rotation:

Matt Harvey D

By now, it is readily apparent Harvey never should have pitched in 2016.  First, there was the blood clots in his bladder that led to him having an abbreviated Spring Training.  Then, it was his complaining about his mechanics.  He just wasn’t himself on the mound, and the Mets began to have discussions about sending him down.  Harvey calmed those concerns a bit by carrying a no-hitter into the fifth against the White Sox.

Even with that start, there was something not quite right with Harvey.  As it turns out, he needed season ending surgery to remove a rib to address his thoracic outlet syndrome (TOS).  The TOS was the main culprit for Harvey going 4-10 with a 4.86 ERA and a 1.468 WHIP.  With Harvey having the surgery, we can expect hi to get back to his dominant form instead of the struggling pitcher we saw in 2016.

Jacob deGrom B

Like Harvey, deGrom had some issues of his own.  He had an abbreviate Spring Training due to his newborn son’s health issues.  He had an oblique injury that robbed him of some velocity and movement.  Finally, he had to have season ending surgery himself to address a nerve irritation that was preventing him from pitching.

Ultimately, deGrom adapted to the reduced velocity and movement by locating, and he dominated in day games like he always has.  However, deGrom was not up for the big game like we saw from him.  That was prevalent in an August match-up against Madison Bumgarner that saw both pitchers fail to live up to the pitcher’s duel billing.  In reality, the nerve issue was too much for him towards the end of the season.

Still, it was a good season for deGrom.  It just wasn’t the one we expected from him after he emerged as the Mets ace in 2015.  Overall, deGrom made 24 starts going 7-8 with a 3.04 ERA and a 1.203 WHIP.  He should be much better next season.

Noah Syndergaard A

During the second game of the season, Syndergaard showed off a 95 MPH slider.  With that he announced to the world, he was taking the next step forward in a season where he would emerge as the Mets ace.  He would also emerge as a Cy Young candidate.  Syndergaard might have won the Cy Young award too had it not been for the bone spurs he had to learn to pitch with during the middle of the season.

Dealing with the bone spurs was not the only challenges Syndergaard overcame.  He also had to address how he held runners on base.  Gradually throughout the season, and with some help with Rene Rivera behind the plate, he addressed that issue to the point where teams were no longer running at will against him.  He also had to adapt to being able to carry an injury plagued pitching staff.  One of the main things lost in the season was at the end of the year, Syndergaard was really all the Mets had left in the rotation.  He handled the pressure of not just being an ace, but also being the Mets best chance of winning games.  That was most prevalent when he threw seven shutout innings in a winner-take-all Wild Card Game.

For the season, Syndergaard was 14-9 with a 2.60 ERA and a 1.149 WHIP.  He was the league leader in FIP and home runs allowed per nine innings.  Lost in those numbers was a two home run game in Los Angeles and his getting thrown out of a game for throwing at Chase Utley.  It was an eventful year that saw Syndergaard take the next step.  It will be fascinating to see him improve even more next year.

Steven Matz C

Matz’s season was reminiscent of a scene in the the movie Major League.  Announcer Harry Doyle stated as Willie MaysBar Hayes stepped up to the plate that many say you can tell a lot about how a season is going to go based upon the team’s first at-bat of the season.  Well, if you judged by Matz’s first start of the season, you knew it was going to be a rough year for him.

In his first start, Matz couldn’t get out of the second inning after allowing seven runs to the Marlins.  To his credit, Matz would move past that start, and he would start putting together a season worthy of Rookie of the Year consideration.  In fact, by the end of May, Matz would lower his ERA from the gaudy 37.80 it was during his first start all the way down to 2.28.  It was around this time that Matz began dealing with bone spurs in his elbow that changed the way he pitched.

He couldn’t utilize his slider or breaking pitches as often as it caused him pain.  Accordingly, he was less effective on the mound, and he would pitch to a 4.21 ERA until August.  At that point, Matz just couldn’t do it physically anymore.  He needed season ending surgery to remove what was described as a massive bone spur.  The surgery put an end to what was an uneven season from him.

Overall, Matz made 22 starts going 9-8 with a 3.40 ERA and a 1.209 WHIP.  During the season, he did much to confirm people’s preconceived notions about him.  If you saw him as a possible future ace to join an elite rotation, you saw definitive glimpses of that.  If you saw him as an injury prone pitcher that will never put it together, you saw that as well.  Right now, it is difficult to glean exactly what Matz is and what he will be as a major leaguer.  The 2017 should go a long way on that front.

Bartolo Colon B+

Colon was supposed to be removed from the rotation by the All Star Break.  Instead, he was the only pitcher who didn’t need to skip a start this season.  With the Mets rotation getting decimated by injuries throughout the season, they needed a pitcher like Colon to go out there and not only eat innings, but also to be a reliable pitcher when he took the mound.  Colon responded by having his best year as a Met.

The innings was only part of the Colon story.  In April, he tied Pedro Martinez on the all-time wins list meaning he has won the second most games by a Dominican born pitcher.  Colon would then pass Pedro in May.  Also in May, Colon would actually hit a home run off of James Shields.  These are but a few of the highlights that also included Colon being the best defensive pitcher this season.  It was your typical Colon roller coaster ride that fans seemed to love with the exception being that he actually pitched well this season.

Overall, Colon made 33 starts and one relief appearance going 15-8 with a 3.43 ERA and a 1.210 WHIP.  He led the majors with the fewest walks per nine innings.  It was the type of season that will help fans remember him fondly when he is pitching for the Braves next season.

Zack Wheeler Incomplete

At the Carlos Gomez trade fell through, Wheeler famously called Sandy Alderson and asked him not to trade him.  The rehabbing pitcher wanted to be a part of a Mets team that was poised to win again in 2016.  It didn’t happen as he did not throw one pitch for the Mets in 2016.

Wheeler’s rehab was plagued with setbacks.  First, he needed surgery to remove an undissolved stitch.  He then experienced elbow discomfort which turned out to be an irritated nerve requiring a cortisone shot.  In August, he was finally able to start facing batters again, and he again experienced elbow discomfort which turned out to be a strained flexor tendon.  With that his season was over before it ever began.

At this point, no one quite knows what to make of Wheeler.  He hasn’t pitched in two seasons, has had two surgeries, and has had a number of elbow issues.  While all indications are that he will be ready to start the 2017, we are at the point that we will believe it when we see it.

Editor’s Note: the grades for April, May, June, July, August, and September/October can be found by clicking the links.

page top

The Non-Cespedes Mets Outfield Options

With reports that the Mets do not expect they will be able to re-sign Yoenis Cespedes, and that was before Neil Walker accepted the $17.2 million qualifying offer, the question is how do you replace the irreplaceable?  Here are some options:

FREE AGENTS

Carlos Gomez

As explained in an earlier MMO article, a rejuvenated Gomez could help the Mets by continuing to play a good center field and by providing another right-handed bat in what protects to be a heavy left-handed Mets lineup.

Ian Desmond

After not getting a significant contract offer with a qualifying offer attached to him, he bet on himself taking a one year $8 million deal from the Texas Rangers.

Desmond was an All Star who hit .285/.335/.446 with 29 doubles, 22 homers, and 85 RBI.   However, Desmond does have some red flags:

  1. He rated below average defensively in center field (-4.5 UZR);
  2. He hit only .269/.324/.429 off right-handed pitching; H
  3. He fell apart in the second half hitting .237/.283/.347; H
  4. He hit .330/.368/.497 at hitter friendly Ballpark at Arlington and .241/.305/.398 in the road; and
  5. He may get a qualifying offer.

Matt Holliday

Infamously, the Mets chose Jason Bay over him heading in the 2009 offseason. Bay would struggle immensely at Citi Field while Holliday would win a World Series with the Cardinals.

While Holliday has been injury prone the past few years, he has still hit. He has always been an average to below average left fielder, and the 37 year old is coming off his worst year out there. It is part of the reason he began transitioning to first base with the Cardinals. If the Mets were to sign him, he could fulfill the role the Mets envisioned Michael Cuddyer would have.

Jose Bautista

Of all the available free agents, Bautista is the one who is best suited to replicate the offensive production Cespedes provided the Mets.  Over the past three seasons, Bautista has hit .259/.383/.508 while averaging 32 homers and 95 RBI.  If you are looking for a difference maker in the lineup, Bautista fits the bill.

However, there are some reason to be hesitant to sign Bautista.  First, he is a 36 year old coming off his worst season since 2009 (as per OPS+).  Second, he has been in decline as an outfielder over the past three seasons.  Third and most importantly, he is going to be expensive.  It is anticipated Bautista will received a qualifying offer, and he reportedly wants 5 years $150 million in free agency.

Mark Trumbo

Trumbo certainly enjoyed hitting at Camden Yards for a full season.  Trumbo went from a career .251/.301/.460 hitter who averaged 26 homers to a .256/.316/.533 hitter who led the majors with 47 homers.  Naturally, when there is a jump like that with a player, there are a number of reasons why a team like the Mets should shy away.

Throughout his career, Trumbo has struggled against left-handed pitching.  This isn’t exactly appealing when you consider he would be joining an outfield with three other left-handed hitters.  Furthermore, he did most of his damage this past season at Camden Yards showing much of his career year was generated by his home ballpark.  Lastly, Trumbo is really a 1B/DH masquerading as an outfielder.

Carlos Beltran

Reuniting with Beltran certainly seems like it would be a stretch considering he has already stated his intentions that he wants to DH next year, and he wants to return to the Texas Rangers.  It is certainly understandable considering he will be 40 next season, and he has been a below average right fielder the past three years.

Still, Beltran can his positive attributes.  Over the past three years, Beltran has hit .271/.327/.468 while averaging 21 homers and 70 RBI.  We know from his time with the Mets, he is great in the clubhouse, and he helps younger players with the preparation and conditioning aspect of the game.  It is something Beltran did with both David Wright and Jose Reyes immediately upon joining the Mets.  Finally, Beltran is one of the greatest postseason hitters of all time.  For a team with World Series aspirations, Beltran could help on that front.

THE TIGERS

Justin Upton

As luck would have it, the Padres rejected the Mets offer of Michael Fulmer for Upton leading the Mets to offer him in exchange for Cespedes.  Once again, the Tigers are looking to trade an outfielder, and the Mets may have interest in a player like Upton.

Upton has always been a good hitter in his major league career.  In his nine years as a starter, he is a .270/.349/.476 hitter who averages 24 homers and 77 RBI in his nine years as a starter.  Generally speaking, he has never been a guy that will hurt you in the outfield even if he is coming off a poor year offensively.  Between his offense, his defense, and his friendship with Wright, you could make a very good case why the Mets should purse Upton.

There is also over $110 million reasons why you would want to avoid Upton.  If Upton were not to exercise he opt out clause, which he would use after the 2017 season, the Mets would be on the hook for the full amount of the remaining $110.625 million remaining on his contract.  Typically speaking, the Mets have not shown the interest in adding contract like that to the payroll.

Now, Upton could also opt out of his contract, which would put the Mets in the same position as they are this offseason.  They will likely be unable to re-sign him, and in return, all they can recoup for him is a compensatory first round draft pick.  Compensatory draft picks are great when they become players like Fulmer who are real assets that can help the major league team.  They are also suspect when they become players like Anthony Kay, who failed a physical and needs Tommy John surgery before ever throwing a professional pitch.

J.D. Martinez

Over the last three seasons, Martinez has blossomed into a terrific hitter.  In Detroit, he has hit .299/.357/.540 while averaging 28 homers and 82 RBI.  Up until this year, he has also been a solid outfielder.  You can do a lot worse than Martinez in trying to replace Cespedes.

That’s part of the reason why he will be difficult to obtain.  Next year is the final year of his contract that pays him $11.75 million.  While the Tigers are looking to shed payroll, they will likely seek a king’s ransom in exchange for a player that has a very favorable contract for next season.  With the Mets having traded away some many big pieces over the past two seasons, and with them being reluctant to trade players like Amed Rosario and Dominic Smith, it is hard to see them pulling off a trade for a cheap outfielder who has terrific production.

INTERNAL OPTIONS

As it stands right now, the Mets have two corner outfielders in Jay Bruce and Curtis Granderson who are coming off 30 home run seasons.  With them at the corners, it is possible the Mets feel as if they are already set in left and right field even with one of them having to change positions.

The Mets may even have more faith in their outfield as is with Michael Conforto.  In his young career, he has shown the Mets glimpses of his being a brilliant hitter.  He was undaunted as a rookie in 2015.  He was perhaps the best hitter in baseball in April 2016.  He responded to a demotion after a wrist injury and his slumping by hitting .493/.541/.821 with six homers and 13 RBI in 17 August games in AAA.  With Conforto having shown glimpses of what his true talent level is, and with him showing the willingness to put in the work, the Mets may very well gamble on Conforto in 2017.

The fact that Granderson and Conforto can also play center field gives the Mets options on a game to game basis.  It allows them to put all three out there, and it allows them to sit one for rest or to avoid a tough left-handed pitcher to get Lagares’ glove in the outfield.  Overall, the Mets may very well stay internal to replace Cespedes’ production.  It is a gamble, and that gamble may be the difference between going to the postseason or staying home in 2017.

Editor’s Note: a version of this article was first published on Mets Merized Online

page top

Mets Final Season Grades – Outfielders

Throughout the season, I attempted to grade the different Mets players performances for each month of the season. In determining the year end grades, the aggregate of the monthly grades given was considered, but it wasn’t conclusive.  For example, one player’s awful month could be more than offset by having an incredible month.  Also, those decisions were made in the heat of the moment.  There has been a cooling off period in giving these finals grades, and with that, there is time for reflection.  It should also be noted the Wild Card Game did have some impact on these grades as that game was part of the story of the 2016 Mets.  Overall, the final grades assessed considered the monthly grades, but also took into account that player(s) overall impact on the Mets season (good or bad).    For the fifth set of grades, here are the Mets outfielders:

Yoenis Cespedes B+

Is it possible for a player to have a great season, but you wanted just a little more from him?  Overall, Cespedes had one of the great statistical seasons from a Mets outfielder with him hitting .280/.354/.530 with 25 doubles, one triple, 31 homers, and 86 RBI.  For most of the season, Cespedes was everything you could have expected from him.

Still, there were other points where he wasn’t and much of that was due to the injured quad he tried to play through much of the season.  The quad injury was a major reason his numbers were slightly below where you expected they would be.  It was also a reason for his subpar defense this season.  Even when healthy, he was a disaster in center as evidenced by his -10.6 UZR and his -7 DRS.  Eventually, his quad left Cespedes telling the Mets he could no longer play center (but not golf), and that he needed to go back to left field.  In left, Cespedes was a good defender, but he wasn’t at the Gold Glove level he usually is.

However, despite all the negatives you could point out, Cespedes was still a great player for the Mets in 2016, and he was a major contributor for a team that returned to the postseason.  He proved his 2015 stretch with the Mets was no fluke.  He showed everyone why the Mets need to bring him back next year.

Michael Conforto D

This was supposed to be the year Conforto took off and became a star.  It seemed like it was happening in April when he hit .365/.442/.676 with 11 doubles, four homers, and 18 RBI while leading the major leagues in hard hit ball rate.  It was all coming together until it didn’t.

The rest of Conforto’s season was marred by slumps, injury, and multiple demotions.  After April, Conforto would only hit .174/.267/.330 with 10 doubles, one triple, eight homers, and 24 RBI.  There are a million different reasons we can use to explain these numbers away including his injuries and the very poor way both the Mets and Terry Collins handled him.  Looking at his AAA numbers, the injuries and mishandling of him look more like good reasons than they do excuses.

However, no matter the reason, Conforto still only hit .220/.310/.414 with 21 doubles, one triple, 12 homers, and 42 RBI.  Those are disappointing numbers for a young player that should be a star in this league.  Conforto did work hard all year, made no excuses, and he seems better off for it.  As a result, we should see more of the April Conforto in 2017.

Curtis Granderson C

It is really hard to say a player who became the oldest Met to ever hit 30 homers in a season had a disappointing year, but Granderson did have a disappointing year.  He went from the Mets MVP to a guy hitting .237/.335/.464.  Despite the 30 homers, he only had 59 RBI.  Although, it should be noted he spent most of the year as the leadoff hitter.  He also regressed in the field going from a Gold Glove caliber player to a subpar defensive player.

On the positive side, he did hit 30 homers, and he had a great September helping the Mets drive to claim the top Wild Card spot.  He was willing to do anything to help the team including playing center field when Cespedes was no longer able to do so.  He was a leader on the team, and he deservedly won the Roberto Clemente Award.  The organization is better for having a person like Granderson.  The real question is whether the team will be better for having a player like Granderson around next year.

Jay Bruce D+

Up until the last week and a half of the season it looked like the Bruce acquisition was going to be an unmitigated disaster.  In Bruce’s first 42 games with the Mets, he hit .174/.252/.285 with four doubles, four homers, and 11 RBI.  He went from the major league leader in RBI to finding himself outside the Top 10.  He went from a career year to a guy completely lost at the plate.  To boot, he wasn’t that good in the field either.

During the stretch drive, he seemed to adapt to playing in New York, and he started to hit much better.  In his final eight games, he hit .480/.536/1.000 with a double, four homers, and eight RBI.  That stretch made his overall Mets numbers seem a little better with him hitting .219/.294/.391 with five doubles, eight homers, and 19 RBI.  Certainly, both Bruce and the Mets were hoping for better production than that.  Hopefully, he provides it in 2017.

Juan Lagares B-

Lagares’ value has been and will always be with his glove, and that is why his 2016 season was mostly a success.  Despite Lagares being limited to 68 games in center field due to his being a platoon player and his ligament injury, he was still Top Five in the National League in DRS.  If Lagares had played more games, it is safe to assume he would’ve won his second Gold Glove.

However, Lagares is not going to get that type of opportunity because of his offense.  In 79 games, Lagares hit .239/.301/.380 with seven doubles, two triples, three homers, and nine RBI.  It is hard justifying keeping that bat in the lineup no matter how good your defense is.  It is even harder when you consider the struggles the Mets had scoring runs last season.  It should be noted that Lagares’ role was as a platoon player and a late defensive replacement.  While he didn’t hit well in 2016, he was great defensively.  We should expect more of the same next year.

Alejandro De Aza C-

In a short period of time, De Aza went from the probable Opening Day center fielder to the fifth outfielder without an inning of baseball even being played.  The Mets brought him here to platoon with Lagares, and with the unexpected Cespedes signing, De Aza really found himself without a role.

As a a result, he really struggled to start the year.  Not only was he struggling at the plate, but Collins was questioning his effort level.  Eventually, De Aza had a great July, and he turned his season around.  From there, he became an effective bench player, and he capably played all three outfield positions.  Overall, he hit .205/.297/.321 with nine doubles, six homers, and 25 RBI.  Those numbers were so low because that is how bad he was in the beginning of the year.  Ultimately, it was a rough year for what should prove to be De Aza’s only year as a Met.

Brandon Nimmo B+

The biggest beneficiary of Conforto’s struggles was Nimmo.  With Conforto being sent down, Nimmo got his chance to play in the major leauges, and he made the most of it.  In 32 games, Nimmo hit .274/.338/.329 with one double, a long home run, and six RBI.  Mostly, the 23 year old former first round draft pick showed the Mets he could very well be a part of the future of this organization.

Justin Ruggiano Inc

With his removal from the 40 man roster, Ruggiano’s Mets career lasted all of 22 plate appearances.  In those 22 plate appearances he did hit .350/.409/.650 with two homers and six RBI.  In that mix was a grand slam he hit off of Madison Bumgarner, which only serves to highlight how much the Mets missed a guy who only had 22 plate appearances for them in the 2016 season.

Editor’s Note: the grades for April, May, June, July, August, and September/October can be found by clicking the links.

page top

Jose Reyes Is A Utility Player

Right after the season was over, the Mets did the smart thing, and they picked up Jose Reyes option for the 2017 season.  Reyes is a player that gives the Mets depth, and he provides insurance for some key positions.

Should David Wright go down again, we saw Reyes can handle playing third base.  Should Asdrubal Cabrera have another injury plagued year, Reyes can spell him on a number of days in order to keep Cabrera fresh.  With an offseason to work on it, Reyes can also make himself a capable defender at second base and quite possibly the outfield.  Second base is interesting because the Mets do not know if Neil Walker can return or what Walker could provide with a surgically repaired back.  With that in mind, there has been discussion about Reyes possibly being the everyday second baseman.  He shouldn’t.

The main reason is Reyes has essentially become a much faster with less power version of Wilmer Flores at the plate.

Both players absolutely maul left-handed pitching while they are feeble hitters from the right-hand side of the plate.  Without telling you who was who, here are their splits from the 2016 season:

vs. RHP vs. LHP
Player A .232/.289/.353 .340/.383/.710
Player B .239/.293/.371 .380/.456/.740

To show this is part of a larger trend, here are the numbers from the 2015 season as well:

vs. RHP vs. LHP
Player A .251/.279/.358 .310/.355/.600
Player B .275/.309/.374 .273/.311/.388

If you had trouble deciphering which one was Reyes and which one was Flores that is the point.  If you thought Player A was Flores and Player B was Reyes, you were correct.  After reviewing the numbers, wouldn’t it be fair to say that at least offensively Flores has become the better player?

Now, there are some caveats to this.  In 2015, Reyes only played in 116 games due to injury and trade.  In 2016, he only played in 60 games due to his suspension and his eventual release.  When you have smaller sample sizes, you tend to see greater fluctuations in the statistics.  It is an important caveat when you consider Reyes has largely been platoon neutral in his career.  Naturally, you would want to rely upon the splits from a player’s entire 14 year career than from two abbreviated seasons.

However, you cannot ignore trends, especially trends from a player that is going to be turning 34 next season.  In his four years since leaving the Mets, Reyes has been a .286/.334/.409 hitter who has averaged 29 doubles, four triples, nine homers, and 50 RBI with 27 stolen bases a season.  Compare that to the .292/.341/.441 hitter who averaged 25 doubles, 11 triples, nine homers, and 47 RBI with 41 stolen bases during Reyes’ first tour of duty with the Mets.  Fact is, Reyes is a different player than the one we knew.

And no, this isn’t a case of Reyes being a different player in New York.  In his only year with the Marlins, he hit .287/.347/.433 with 37 doubles, 12 triples, 11 homers, and 57 RBI with 40 stolen bases.  In Reyes’ first year with the Blue Jays, he hit .296/.353/.427 with 20 doubles, no triples, 1o homers, 37 RBI, and 15 stolen bases.  That 2013 season with the Blue Jays was an injured plagued one for Reyes as he only played in 93 games.  He hasn’t been the same player after that season becoming just a .279/.321/.400 hitter in the three subsequent years.

Overall, Reyes is still a talented player that has a lot to offer a team.  However, Reyes no longer has the skills that made him an All Star caliber player.  While he still has speed, he no longer has elite speed.  While he can play the middle infield, he no longer has the range he once had.  While he can still hit for some power, he no longer has the ability to consistently get on base.  Long story short, Reyes is a player in decline.  It’s what happens to players in their mid 30s.

Despite the decline, Reyes should be a valuable contributor to the Mets in 2017.  His ability to play across the diamond and use his speed is a real asset.  Still, you will get diminishing returns playing him everyday.  You will notice the low OBP and his platoon splits.  This is why Reyes needs to be a utility player for the Mets next season.

 

page top

Chopsticks Will Help Your Toddler’s Development

As a kid, I remember my father teaching me to use chopsticks.  As he told me, he learned first in Vietnam, and then he mastered it when he worked in the city after the war.  He would go to Chinatown for lunch, and they would provide you with chopsticks to eat your lunch.  It was a sink or swim situation (unless you wanted to use your hands).

It didn’t take much time for me to master using chopsticks.  I was able to eat my beef with broccoli using them.  I was also able to eat my rice with them.  As I become more and more adept, I began to pass egg rolls, the soy sauce container, and various other items on the kitchen table using them.  I’m very thankful that I learned how to use them at a young age.

At some point in your life, you are going to go to a sushi restaurant, or your job is going to provide sushi at one of its functions.  In either scenario, you do not want to be the person who is asking for the fork and knife to eat your food.  It’s embarrassing, especially when you consider that by the time you reach adulthood you are almost expected to be able to use chopsticks.

It is one of the many reasons I have been teaching my son to use chopsticks.  When he was an infant, I got him his own pair of chopsticks.  As it turns out, it is really not necessary to get them because sushi and Chinese restaurants routinely carry chopsticks for children.  Still, it is not a bad idea to get your own so your child can learn with their own pair, and you can make sure the chopsticks your child eats with is absolutely clean.

Once my son was able to eat solid foods, we put the chopsticks in his hand when we ate sushi (sweet potato roll for him) just like we put the spoon in his hand when he would eat eggs or sweet potatoes.  The idea was to get him accustomed to using them:

chopsticks

As time progressed, he has become more and more adept at using them.  Now he is at the point where he is able to feed himself just as well as he can with a knife and a fork if we give him a pair of chopsticks:

 

Other than the sheer amazement we see from people as a two year old is able to eat his dinner using a pair of chopsticks, and the great picture opportunities, there are a number of reasons why using the chopsticks has been good for own son’s development.

First, it helps your child improve his hand-eye coordination as well as their hand strength.  Additionally, at an age where most children struggle to show more two or three fingers at once, the chopsticks help with a child’s finger manipulation.  This is a long way of saying the use of chopsticks will help your child’s fine motor skills.  Also, keep in mind, that when the time comes, the very same skills that are honed using chopsticks are going to be the very same skills needed when it comes time to learn how to write (which really isn’t that far away).

With my son, we noticed two immediate things when he started to use chopsticks.  First, he showed a clear hand dominance.  Routinely, he would go to the right hand to use the chopsticks.  Second, and most importantly, we began to see him grip and use crayons differently.  Instead of grabbing the crayon in a fist, he was able to grip the crayon like you would a pencil.  He was able to do it with ease, and when he started drawing, there was more of a purposeful direction in what he was doing (not that the results looked much different).  Generally speaking, we his fine motor skills develop at a more rapid pace than they were before he used chopsticks.

Another added benefit is he finds using chopsticks to be fun.  With that, he is more eager to sit down and eat at times when we are using chopsticks.  As parents know, sometimes getting your child to sit down to eat is a seemingly unnecessary fight.  Anything that prevents that fight is a win.

Overall, there are many benefits to your toddler learning to use chopsticks, and on occasion, the use of chopsticks to eat (or play games) should be encouraged.

page top