Musings
I can and have gone on and on ad nauseum about the Mets bringing back Jose Reyes. I promise this entry isn’t that.
Everyone concludes, including myself, that Reyes is not coming back. We know he didn’t want to leave. We know the Mets still haven’t found a SS. We know he hasn’t sold his home. Now, he’s playing in Colorado. I’m sure he misses his family, and we all know Colorado has excellent schools, right Mike Hampton?
This isn’t the move I’m referring to in the title. only joking. I would never pretend to tell someone else how to raise their family. Fatherhood is difficult enough while trying to raise someone else’s kids.
I’m not even referring to another team who may trade for him. Rather, I’m referring to Reyes making a move towards the Hall of Fame. I believe if he is going to make it, he’s probably going to need 3,000 hits.
Reyes’ 162 game average is 198 hits per season. Going into this year, he’s only averaged 120 games a year, and he’s averaged 148 hits per year. That may seem low, but he has missed time due to injuries. Entering this season, he had 1,772 hits. He now sits at 1,866. He’s currently 1,134 short of 3,000.
There are 47 games left in the Rockies season. If we assume Reyes will continue to play 74% of his team’s games, he has approximately 35 games left in the season. At a rate of 1.2 hits per game, he will get an additional 42 hits. This would leave him with about 1,908 hits or 1,092 short of 3,000.
If he continues to average 148 hits, he’ll need about eight more years to reach 3,000. That’s a lot to ask considering you’re asking him to play everyday into his age 42 season.
I know he wants to come back to New York, but maybe going to Colorado was a blessing in disguise. Now we know, players hit 17% better at Coors Field. I doubt the Rockies will pick up his $22 million option in 2018. That means, barring a trade, he will only have two full years in Coors Field.
As noted above, Reyes averages 148 hits per season. In his career, Reyes gets 51% of his base hits at home. That means in a typical season, Reyes can expect to get 75 hits at home and 73 on the road. If we apply the 17% Coors Field factor, Reyes average home hits would increase to 88 hits. This would increase his hits total from 148 to 161.
Accordingly, two years in Coors Field would put him at approximately 2,232 hits or 768 hits short entering his age 35 season. At 161 hits per year, he’d need approximately 5 more years to reach 3,000. If Reyes is healthier getting off the turf and plays 150 games per year, his hit totals could increase by an additional 40 hits per year, or 80 total. This would put him at 2,312 or 688 short.
Now when he’s a free agent, he will have to decide if: 1) he wants to make the push towards 3,000; 2) he wants to win; or 3) hopefully both.
If he goes for option #1 or #3, maybe he could be inducted in the Hall of Fame. Quite possibly, he would then be the Mets first position player from their farm system to do so. Maybe the Mets would then retire his number 7. I’d love to be there for both ceremonies.
It’s a long shot right now. If that’s going to change, Reyes needs to embrace playing in Coors Field and make his move.
As I’ve noted before, this is not a political blog. I have strong political opinions, but they won’t be presented here. However, this blog does touch upon baseball and fatherhood, so I decided it was important for me to address the reopening of the U.S. embassy in Cuba.
From a baseball perspective, there has already been much written about a potential pipeline of talent to the U.S. For various reasons, I’m not as intrigued by that possibility. Honestly, if Cuba ever allowed their baseball players to come to the U.S., I imagine it would follow the Japanese NPB system.
Here’s what I’m more interested in:
- Will Americans be eligible to play in the Cuban National League; and
- Will Cuban MLB players be eligible to play in the WBC?
American Eligibility to Play in Cuba
I’m interested in the first one because we have seen MLB players go to the NPB and be successful. The most notable was Cecil Fielder, who improved in the NPB, and became the first player to hit 50 homeruns in 13 years (back when that meant something).
Since that time, there have been other players like Ryan Vogelsong, who have salvaged their games, there haven’t been any with the impact of Fielder. Now, the NPB seems to be used for a different purpose for American players. Kevin Youkilis went there to play one last season before retiring, rather than risking being cut for non-performance by an MLB team. Tuffy Rhodes decided to make a career out of being an NPB star than return to the U.S.
Now, I don’t know if the Cuban Leagues are better than the NPB. In fact, I doubt they are. However, it would be good to have another option for MLB players to resurrect their careers.
WBC
I know American baseball fans are as interested in the WBC as I am. Admittedly, there are many flaws in the series (innings limits, when it’s played), but I enjoy it anyway.
Overall, the two teams that have really underachieved have been the U.S. and Cuba. With each defection, the Cuban team continues to worsen. Here are some of the Cuban MLB players not eligible to play for Cuba anymore:
- Jose Abreu
- Yoenis Cespedes
- Aroldis Chapman
- Yasmani Grandal
- Adeiny Hechavarria
- Jose Iglesias
- Leonys Martin
- Yasiel Puig
- Alexi Ramirez
These are some good to very good MLB players. These players would really strengthen the Cuban national team. I want the U.S.A. to win the WBC, but I want them to beat the best to show they are the best. I want this to be more akin to Olmpic hockey and basketball, not a collection of guys willing to play.
I think the addition of the Cuban MLB players would spark their team and the WBC. There is a Cuba-U.S.A. baseball rivalry at the amateur level. Maybe the addition of the Cuban MLB players will cause the best American players to show up . . . not just some of them.
Summation
Overall, I have no idea of the political and baseball impact on the U.S. Embassy reopening in Cuba. While I know there are people who support it and those who vehemently oppose it, I think we all agree we want what’s best for the Cuban families. To a lesser extent, I think we would all enjoy better baseball.
According to Carlos Gonzalez, Jacob deGrom is the best pitcher in baseball. This is notable because he shares a division with Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, and Madison Bumgarner. With that said, I wanted to take a way too early look at deGrom’s chances of winning the Cy Young Award.
In doing this analysis. I wanted to take a look at different stats and predictors. I wanted to do this because I don’t think anyone one factor or stat should ever held to be dispositive. I went with the factors I fr most comfortable discussing. For each, I will only list the top five as that how many pitchers may be listed on a ballot.
ESPN Cy Young Predictor
The ESPN Cy Young Predictor focuses more on traditional stats like wins, losses, and ERA. As of right now, here are the rankings:
- Zack Greinke
- Trevor Rosenthal
- Michael Wacha
- Jacob deGrom
- Clayton Kershaw
WAR
WAR seeks to adjust the runs a pitcher allows in a season (I’m way oversimplifying, but fully explaining this is a post or 10 in and of itself). Here are the league leaders:
- Zack Greinke
- Max Scherzer
- Jacob deGrom
- Clayton Kershaw
- Jake Arrieta
FIP
Fielding Independent Pitching, or FIP, measures a pitcher’s effectiveness in preventing HR, BB, and HBP while causing strikeouts. Really, this measures the “Three True Outcomes.” Here are the league leaders:
- Clayton Kershaw
- Max Scherzer
- Zack Greinke
- Jacob deGrom
- Jake Arrieta
ERA+
ERA+ adjusts a pitcher’s ERA for various factors like ballpark and defense. Here are the league leaders:
- Zack Greinke
- Jacob deGrom
- Jake Arrieta
- Max Scherzer
- Clayton Kershaw
Winner
To calculate the winner, I’m using the BBWAA 7-4-3-2-1 formula to select the winner, i.e. first place gets seven points and fifth gets one.
- Zack Greinke (24 points)
- Jacob deGrom (13 points)
- Clayton Kershaw (11 points)
- Max Scherzer (10 points)
- Jake Arrieta (5 points)
- Trevor Rosenthal (4 points)
- Michael Wacha (3 points)
Analysis
Much of this seems to suggest what we already assume we know: Zack Greinke is going to win the Cy Young. It’s always great when the stats are in agreement.
I think it also shows we are right in assuming the top pitchers also include Jacob deGrom, Clayton Kershaw, and Max Scherzer. However, it was enlightening to see Jake Arrieta is having a tremendous year, and yet, he wasn’t an All Star.
Overall, deGrom is a strong second, but still second in projected voting. There is still a lot of season left, so there still might be a chance. Even if he doesn’t win, he’s still had a great year.
About three weeks ago, I addressed the Mets innings limitations problem. Without completely regurgitating everything here, my conclusion was that without a spot starter, Jacob deGrom would be the only stud muffin able to make a postseason start. Even at that, he would only be available for one game.
I thought with the latest go-round of stud muffin starts, it would be helpful to re-visit where we are on the innings limits:
Matt Harvey: I’ve noted his innings limits are between 180 – 190 innings. Right now, he’s at 148.0, or 42.0 innings before a hypothetical shutdown (don’t worry Collins said there’s no shutdown). By my rudimentary calculation, Harvey has nine starts left, at most. He’s averaging 6.2 innings per start meaning he will go over his limit by 18 innings (about three starts), not including the postseason.
Jacob deGrom: I’ve noted his innings limits are between 208 – 214 innings. Right now, he’s at 146.2, or 71.1 innings before needing to be shutdown. With approximately nine starts left and his averaging 6.2 innings per start, he looks to finish the year with 206.2 innings. It looks like he will be below his limits, postseason aside.
Noah Syndergaard: I’ve noted his innings limits are between 159.0 – 163.0 innings. Right now, he’s at 105.2, or 57.1 innings before needing to be shut down. With nine starts remaining and his averaging 6.2 innings per start, he looks to finish the year with 165.2 innings. He will be slightly above his innings limits right before the postseason.
So interestingly enough, if you’re only looking at the regular season, there isn’t an innings limitation problem with anyone but Harvey. This is yet again a sign the Mets shouldn’t “Matz” with the rotation right now.
While not addressing the pitching, Sandy Alderson did say, “[i]t’s about this year. Not next year.” I hope he keeps this in mind and puts Steven Matz in the bullpen. Remember it’s all about this year.
Good morning Mets fans. For some reason, food tastes better this morning. The air smells a little sweater. Overall, everything seems just a little bit better. Why? Here’s why:
AL East
Team W L GB
Blue Jays 63 52 –
Yankees 61 51 0.5
NL East
Team W L GB
Mets 62 52 –
Nationals 58 55 3.5
That’s right. The Mets are in first, and the Yankees aren’t. It seems like an Abbott and Costello routine. Not even ol’ Sebastian Dimwitty could figure this one out. Do you know the last time the Mets were in first place and the Yankees weren’t this late in the season? 1990!
Here’s a snapshot of what things were like in 1990:
- There were only four divisions and no Wild Card
- There was no interleague play
- Gary Cohen did radio and Howie Rose did TV
- Bud Selig owned the Brewers
- Tom Seaver was not yet eligible for the Hall of Fame
- Ron Darling pitched for the Mets
- Keith Hernandez was finishing his career in Cleveland
- Matt Harvey was one, Jacob deGrom was two, and Bartolo Colon was 30 (numbers are approximate).
- Noah Syndergaard, Wilmer Flores, and Michael Conforto weren’t born yet.
We know now that 1990 was the last hurrah for those 1980’s Mets teams. Now, it just seems like the beginning. Like I’ve said before, it’s a lot easier to raise a Mets fan when the Mets are good. It’s also easier when they’re better than the Yankees.
I know this may only last a day, but let’s enjoy it while it lasts. I get a feeling the Mets are in first to stay. Let’s Go Mets!
With all of the hand-wringing over Michael Conforto, we’ve ignored other puzzling decisions by the Mets, namely:
https://mobile.twitter.com/msimonespn/status/631287918150049794
That’s right. Even though Curtis Granderson has had a real nice year, he’s not hitting lefties. This shouldn’t surprise anyone because he’s effectively been a platoon candidate throughout his career:
vs. RHP .269/.356/.504
vs. LHP .224/.294/.398
Now, since Terry Collins has an infatuation with leading off Juan Lagares, I would say this is a natural platoon. However, I shudder to think of Collins putting him in RF again with Yoenis Cespedes in center. Plus, Lagares is in that platoon with Conforto.
Last night, Michael Cuddyer played his first game since coming off the DL, and he played well. He was 2-4 with two runs scored. On the first run, he scored from second on Carlos Gonzalez’s strong arm. In the eighth, he stole a base. In sum, he looked healthy. If he’s really healthy, he creates a good problem to have.
He’s a professional hitter (an “ultimate pro“) with a career triple slash line of .277/.344/.462. Arguably, if healthy, he’s the best hitting OF currently on the team (I think it’s Cespedes). In his career, he’s been deadly against lefties to the tune of .288/.376/.495. I think it’s a no-brained for him to platoon with Granderson, at a minimum.
For his career, Cuddyer hits righties to the tune of .273/.330/.447. He’s much better against lefties. Here’s the Mets other OF options against righties (Granderson is above)
Yoenis Cespedes .277/.317/.478
Michael Conforto .206/.317/.382 (SSS)
Juan Lagares .253/.285/.336
What this tells us, is if Cuddyer is healthy, he needs to play everyday. I think it would be wise to ease him back, but I would not limit him to a strict platoon. This means, on offense alone, the OF against righties should be: Cuddyer LF, Cespedes CF, Granderson RF. Again, this indicates Conforto should be demoted.
If Cuddyer’s not healthy, then the Mets need to figure something out with Granderson in RF. He did come through the past few nights against a lefty, but that was more about the reliever than him.
I hope Cuddyer’s really healthy because he’ll be a huge boost to the offense as he was last night. If not, he should be Granderson’s caddy against lefties.
Right now, with all of these interchangeable parts, Collins has to earn his money by putting the best team on the field. He can’t gamble because there is so much to lose right now. If Cuddyer’s healthy, a lot of the risk is removed and it makes Collins’ job a lot easier. It also makes the Mets a better team.
I love steak. My steak of choice is the T-bone. I’ve been thinking of steak all day because: 1) I get to pick where we go out to eat tonight, and 2) David Wright‘s going to be a good guy and get steaks for the St. Lucie team:
https://mobile.twitter.com/whereskernan/status/630928401520566273
Ummm yeah. Outback isn’t exactly outdoing Michael Cuddyer’s chicken. Outback is to steak like McDonalds is to Shake Shack. Sure, they’re both hamburgers, but one is in a different class than the other.
I’m not one to spend someone else’s money, but I’m sure Wright and his $20 million could afford something better than Outback. According to Yelp!, there are Ruth’s Chris Steakhouses within an hour of the ballpark. Now that’s a steak dinner.
Before making his choice, Wright should remember that one day Dom Smith may one day be his teammate, and he may be preventing Wright from accumulating throwing errors. If Wright doesn’t go the Ruth’s Chris route, he can at least say he’s not providing steak, but rather he’s providing this:
Now that right there is a reason to go to Outback.
All kidding aside, I think it’s awesome Wright is buying the minor leaguers dinner. Minor Leaguers notoriously make little money, so I’m sure this meal is welcome. Also, this will give them some additional time to pick his brain to see what it takes to be a great major league player.
Seemingly, Wright has nothing to gain from this, and this is what makes it such a great gesture. With all the negativity going on in and out of the world of sports, it’s great to hear a story like this. It makes it easier to root for Wright. It’ll be better rooting for him when he’s back in New York.
Last night, Jose Reyes returned to Citi Field . . . again. This is the third jersey Reyes has worn at Citi Fiels since Sandy Alderson informed him the Mets weren’t interested in resigning him.
Reyes hasn’t killed the Mets since he left. In 22 games against them, he’s only hit .229/.298/.325. Last night, he went 1-4 and was picked off of first base. However since his departure, the Mets have been unable to resolve their SS situation. We were reminded of this as Wilmer Flores [standing ovation] played SS twice (is he becoming Bartolo Colon’s personal SS?) and Ruben Tejada, who was terrible in the field on Saturday, played once against the Rays. Overall, since Reyes left the Mets after the 2011 season, here are the Mets’ SS by games played (as per Baseball Almanac):
- Ruben Tejada – 281
- Omar Quntanilla – 168
- Wilmer Flores – 125
- Ronny Cedeno – 27
- Justin Turner – 10
- Jordany Valdespin
- Eric Campbell – 2
- Wilfredo Tovar – 1
- David Wright – 1
This is why I begged the Mets to bring Reyes back to New York. It would at least end the pattern of: 1) give Tejada the job; 2) Tejada over exposed or not able to play SS everyday; 3) look for another poor solution and repeat. It’s insane that Quintanilla has played the second most games in the above list.
The Mets are in first place right now with a SS problem. The job, yet again, belongs to Tejada. As the information shows, it won’t be for long. This is why I hope the Mets make a move for a SS prior to the August 31 waiver trade deadline. I really hope that player is Reyes. I know we’re stuck with Tejada.
Rarely, if ever, do you see the Mets go all-in on a season. In fact, the only time I remember it happening was 1999 when Steve Phillips traded everyone to try to improve the team after just missing out on the playoffs in 1998.
Watching that 1999 team was probably the most fun I had watching baseball. With that season came so many highlights including the Al Leiter two-hitter in the Wild Card play-in game, Pratt’s All Folks, and the Grand Slam Single. The season ended cruelly with Kenny Rogers . . . .
If you remember, that year the Mets gave away Jason Isringhausen for Billy Taylor. As we know Taylor had no regular season impact and was left off the playoff roster. It also saw Octavio Dotel get called up too soon and stay in the majors too long to the tune of a 5.38 ERA. He was warming in the bullpen when Kenny Rogers . . . .
This year, the Mets are seemingly all-in like they were in 1999. They gave up their two best prospects who have not appeared in the majors this year. In exchange the Mets received two and a half months of Tyler Clippard and Yoenis Cespedes, who is leaving as a free agent. Because of deplorable offense, Michael Conforto was rushed to the majors, and the Mets won’t send him back down.
Look, I understand going all-in. It led to a run in 1999, and to a certain extent 2000. However, in order to go all-in, you don’t hedge your bets.
For starters, that means ending the innings limits nonsense. First of all, the underlying theorem was proven incorrect. Second, the rotation is set up nicely the rest of the year if it’s left unadulterated. Third, Steven Matz must go to the bullpen upon his return from the DL.
If the Mets make the playoffs, he will be in the bullpen anyway (if he makes the postseason roster). He can be like the 2006 Adam Wainwright or the 2008 David Price out there. This will help him and the Mets. If you put him in the rotation, you mess up the rotation and you endanger the opportunity that Matz can be effective in the postseason as a reliever.
If the Mets are truly all-in as their trades and treatment of Conforto suggest, Matz will be a reliever. If the Mets put him in the rotation and try spot starts or a six man rotation in September, then they should’ve sent down Conforto. You can’t go half way in being all-in.
Let’s hope no matter what they do, it works out to their benefit. Let’s also hope we’re talking potential postseason roster moves instead.