Musings
Heading into the 2015, the Mets selected Sean Gilmartin in the Rule 5 Draft. Even though he is left-handed, he never developed into the LOOGY some might’ve imagined him to be. He has reverse splits.
Rather than handing him back to the Twins, the Mets allowed Gilmartin to carve himself a role in the bullpen. He became a very dependable long man in the bullpen. He had a good year pitching 57.1 innings in 50 games. He had a 2.67 ERA, 1.186 WHIP, 2.75 FIP, and a 139 ERA+. At least based upon his past performance, he’s earned the right to reprise his role as the long man in the pen. He’s earned the right to be on the Opening Day roster.
Is that what is best for the Mets or Gilmartin going forward? Now that the Mets have kept Gilmartin for a full year, they can send him to the minors this year. The Mets can now choose to decide between whether Gilmartin should be a reliever or a starter.
Barring injury [knock on every piece of wood within a three mile radius of you right now], the Mets rotation is set. It’s loaded. There is no way Gilmartin will out pitch any of the top four starters. Until Zack Wheeler returns from Tommy John surgery, which should be around June, the Mets will go with Bartolo Colon as the fifth starter. Presumably, he will be the spot starter or injury replacement from that point forward.
However, that doesn’t mean the Mets won’t need quality minor league starting pitching depth. It’s still possible Wheeler could have a set back in his rehab and/or struggle when he returns. Colon will turn 43 in May. Tom Verducci has already named Noah Syndergaard as a candidate to befall the [disproven] Verducci Effect. Always remember the old adage that you can never have enough pitching.
Logan Verrett, who had briefly departed the Mets after being picked in the Rule 5 Draft, performed well in spot start duty last year. He also performed well in the bullpen. He’s in the same predicament as Gilmartin. They’re both good enough to pitch in a major league rotation, but they’re got good enough for this Mets rotation. They’re both performed well in the bullpen, yet the Mets bullpen is stronger possibly obviating the need for starters to pitch in the bullpen.
So overall, Gilmartin and Verrett may very likely start the year in AAA Las Vegas as starting pitchers. The Mets may send them there to have them stretched out in case disaster strikes in the long or short term. If there’s a problem with the bullpen, they can also get called up to fill that role. Overall, it’s better to be stretched out than it is to need to be stretched out.
So overall, while Gilmartin is one of the 12 best pitchers in the Mets, he may very well best help the Mets by starting the season in the minors. Starting being the operative term.
This time of year we get announcements that seem like news. When they’re said, it had to be covered because it is the team making an announcement. For example, when the Arizona Diamondbacks announced Zack Greinke as their Opening Day starter, it was met with a collective eye roll.
I felt the same way when the Mets announced Hansel Robles would most likely make the Opening Day roster.
Of course he is. Robles kept getting better and better last year. In the second half, he pitched 31.1 innings in 31 appearances. He had a 3.16 ERA with a 0.894 WHIP and a 12.1 K/9. He limited batters to a .171/.246/.450 batting line. Over the whole year, he showed an ability to get both righties and lefties out.
The issue isn’t whether Robles will be on the Opening Day roster. It should be what his role should be. Robles should be given the eighth inning.
Right now, that spot is being given to Addison Reed. For his career, Reed has a 4.01 ERA, 1.261 WHIP, and a 9.3 K/9. Like Robles, he is effective against righties and lefties. However, his performance is typically uneven over the course of a year.
The other option is newly signed Antonio Bastardo. In his career, he has a 3.58 ERA, 1.198 WHIP, and an 11.0 K/9. Although he’s a left, he shares Robles’ and Reed’s ability to get both righties and lefties out. The one caution with Bastardo is he seems to be an every other year player. Following his ERAs, his ERA is around 4.00 in even numbered years, and it is under 3.00 in odd numbers years. His ERA+ in those years support the every other year scenario. We’re heading into the 2016 season.
Just judging on the statistics, Robles should pitch the eighth inning. However, 31 appearances is a very small sample size to make such a judgment. It’s even more so when you consider that you’re moving him ahead of two established relievers the Mets are paying quite well. There’s so thing else to consider, Robles has dominating stuff.
Robles repertoire includes a 96 MPH fastball, 87 MPH change, and an 88 MPH slider. Each one of these pitches became more effective as Robles learned how to incorporate the quick pitch. That quick pitch is another reason why Robles should pitch the eighth.
Jeurys Familia also likes to use the quick pitch. It’s come to the point that batters are aware that he’ll do it. They have to come prepared each and ever at bat. Same goes for when Robles is on the mound. The Phillies will tell you that goes doubly for Familia.
However, it’s one thing to prepare for it. It’s a whole other thing to have seen it in an earlier at bat. If Robles comes in during the sixth or seventh inning, he’s bound to use the quick pitch. He needs to use it to be his most effective. Whether or not Familia needs it is a whole other question all together. He likes using it.
A batter having seen the quick pitch in a game is bound to be more prepared for it later in the game. The batter will be most prepared for it when the game is on the line. With that said, why let these batters be better prepared to face Familia’s quick pitch? The Mets shouldn’t. Instead, the Mets should keep Robles and Familia as close together as possible.
Robles has the stuff. He has the results. It’s better for Familia. Robles should pitch the eighth in 2016.
Pitchers and catchers have already reported, and the reporting date for position players is soon approaching. While everyone is settling in, the Mets coaching staff is already trying to plan out the 2016 season:
The Mets have Addison Reed penciled in as the eighth-inning guy to begin the season, according to pitching coach Dan Warthen.
— Mike Puma (@NYPost_Mets) February 20, 2016
Judging on his performance in his limited time with the Mets last year, Addison Reed was lights out. In 17 appearances, he had a 1.17 ERA, a 1.043 WHIP, a 2.74 FIP, an impossibly high 322 ERA+, and a 10.0 K/9. Between his performance, and his history of being an effective closer, Reed is a natural choice to take over eighth inning duties.
However, it should be noted that performance was uncharacteristically good for Reed. In his career, Reed has a 4.01 ERA, 1.261 WHIP, 3.41 FIP, 102 ERA+, and a 9.3 K/9. Accordingly, even if Reed benefitted from working with the Mets coaching staff, he would still be due for a regression back to the numbers he’s accumulated over his five year career. What’s interesting is that looking over Reed’s career, we may be able to see when it’s coming. Here is his ERA and WHIP by each month of his career:
- March/April 2.52 ERA & 1.195 WHIP
- May 4.74 ERA & 1.260 WHIP
- June 5.90 ERA & 1.336 WHIP
- July 3.66 ERA & 1.156 WHIP
- August 2.08 ERA & 1.049 WHIP
- September/October 5.21 ERA & 1.543 WHIP
Reed seems to be at his best at the beginning of the year and after the All Star Break. He tends to wear down after the breaks and with increased use. Last year was an exception. He actually had a very good September. It was perhaps the best month of his career. He had it in a pennant race. He did it with a new team.
So yes, it’s possible that Reed has figured something out, and now, he can be more consistent during the year. He did work on adding a splitter to his repertoire last year. Maybe the Mets were able to help get the most out of him. It’s possible he rose to the challenge that was presented to him. It’s more likely that Reed will put up similar numbers to those he has put up during the majority of his career.
If that’s the case, Reed will start out great and then regress. If that happens, fans should be patient with him. From his career, we can see that he will turn things around. He will be re-energized after the All Star Break. He has shown the ability to pitch well in a pennant race.
Whether or not Reed lasts the year as the eighth inning guy is inconsequential. What matters is that he is effective when it counts most. Judging from his career, 2016 is going to be a bumpy ride. However, fans should be patient with him. He’s shown us that he can produce when it counts most. At the end of the day, that’s all we want.
So with that said, Mets fans should be patient with him. If 2015 is any measure, he will reward that patience.
One of the fun things about Spring Training is the guy who plays so well, he forces his way onto the Opening Day roster.
In 1996, Butch Huskey hit nine homeruns in the Spring forcing the Mets to make him the Opening Day rightfielder even though he never previously played the position. In 2004, Tyler Yates had a 0.64 Spring Training ERA to get the fifth starter’s job. Yates beat out bigger Mets prospects like Aaron Heilman and Grant Roberts.
These players weren’t even darkhorse candidates to win the positions they ultimately attained on the Opening Day roster. Yet, they were able to win their jobs because they were that good in the Spring. More importantly, the Mets had a spot for these players. The Mets were held competitors for these positions, and these players performed so well that the Mets had no choice but to give them the job.
Looking over the 2016 Mets, there’s only one spot up for competition, and that’s in the bullpen. Right now with Jeurys Familia, Addison Reed, Antonio Bastardo, Jerry Blevins, and Hansel Robles, there are two spots up for grab. The names you’re apt to hear are Sean Gilmartin, Logan Verrett, and Erik Goeddel. Each pitched well out of the bullpen last year and deserve consideration.
Another name that deserves consideration is Jim Henderson.
If you don’t recognize the name, it’s understandable. He’s only pitched in 14 games in the majors the last two years due to a shoulder injury and subsequent surgery. Those 14 games were two years ago when he registered a 7.15 ERA. With all that said, Henderson should not be disregarded. He has a legitimate shot at making the Mets Opening Day roster.
Prior to the shoulder injury, Henderson was a very good reliever. Between 2012 and 2013, he made 97 appearances. He had a 2.98 ERA, 1.180 WHIP, 3.03 FIP, 133 ERA+, and 11.9 K/9. He only allowed 0.9 HR/9. In 2013, when the Brewers made him the closer, he recorded 28 saves.
He can help the Mets. Now that he has completed his rehab, he has a fastball that can touch 95 MPH. He knows how to strike guys out. For his career, he has just dominated righties. He has limited them to .183/.241/.284. At a minimum, he can be a specialist to get out tough right handed batters. Ideally, he can be the Chad Bradford to Blevins’ Pedro Feliciano. In order for that to happen, he just needs to get an opportunity.
Fortunately for him, Terry Collins seems like he is going to give Henderson a legitimate shot. As he told Anthony DiComo of MLB.com:
His history is very intriguing. I know he’s a couple of years out of sugery now, which we’re hoping makes a big difference. I saw him inMilwaukee, and he was very, very good. I’m just hoping we can catch lightening in a bottle.
It’s fair to say, Henderson has impressed Collins. It’s half the battle. All Henderson has to do now is go out there and perform this Spring Training. Like Huskey and Yates, he has to dominate in the Spring. He has to give the Mets no choice but to put him on the roster.
Editor’s Note: this article also appeared on metsmerizedonline.com
There was a time when the Mets used to own New York. They had the better and more exciting team. They regularly outdrew the Yankees. Somtime between The Worst Team Money Could Buy and the 80’s Mets getting the band back together in the Bronx sparking a new Yankee dynasty, the Yankees reclaimed New York.
The Yankee dynasty is over. Derek Jeter retired. The Mets have all the exciting young arms. They won the division and had a magical run to the World Series. It seems that, yes, finally, the Mets once again own New York:
https://twitter.com/jareddiamond/status/700723325828354049
It was the largest crowd at Spring Training the Mets have had since those glory days of the 80’s.
The Mets taking over New York isn’t surprising. It was bound to happen sooner or later. What is surprising is the Yankees aren’t even putting up a fight. Look at their offseason:
- No major league free agent signings;
- Trading for alleged woman beater Aroldis Chapman; and
- Eliminating the ability to purchase tickets on Stub Hub while insulting fans in the process.
I know it’s not like the Yankess did nothing. The 2016 Yankees look to be better than the 2015 version with moves like the Starlin Castro trade. The Yankees still have a $221 million payroll. They could very well compete in the division.
They’re just not competing for ownership of New York. It’s something George Steinbrenner never would’ve tolerated.
He hated losing to the Mets in any way, shape, or form. When the Mets had the much touted Generation K, he pushed Derek Jeter forward to prove the Yankees had their own fertile farm system. He bristled when the Mets beat the Yankees . . . in Spring Training! George Steinbrenner would not have sat idly by the year after the Mets advanced further in the playoffs. Last time that happened, Steinbrenner dragged Roger Clemens out of semi-retirement and called-up Joba Chamberlain giving us the “Joba Rules”
Most assume that if George Steinbrenner was still alive, he would’ve responded to the 2015 season with a spending spree. He would’ve had either David Price or Zack Greinke. Possibly both. Ben Zobrist and Jason Heyward would’ve still signed when the same team, only that team would’ve been the Yankees, not the Cubs.
Chances are even in the face of such a spending spree, the Mets would’ve been the better team. They most likely still would be taking over New York. The only difference is the Yankees would’ve put up a fight. The Yankees are going down with a whimper. Worse yet, they’re telling their fans they don’t want them sitting in seats they’ve never sat in before.
That’s fine. Something tells me many of these fans will be sitting in seats they’ve never sat in before. Only now, those seats are in Citi Field. All are welcome aboard the bandwagon. Trust me when I say there are going to be a lot of them.
The Mets once again own New York.
There is one thing you, me, and Juan Uribe have in common. We all love baseball. It was one of several great things we learned during the fun run that Uribe’s short tenure was with the Mets.
Back when the Mets first acquired Uribe, it was the first real sign of hope that the Mets could actually make the postseason. While we all knew the Mets had the pitching, injuries and ineffectiveness troubled the Mets offense. We never knew if or when David Wright was going to return. With Uribe, the Mets obtained a credible major league third baseman. His impact was felt almost immediately:
It was a fun run with Uribe. We learned he hated football, but he loved listening to the Backstreet Boys. He was fun to watch. He appeared to be a leader in the clubhouse. It’s easy to forget now, but if all the people in last year’s roster, he was the only one who had won a World Series. He was only one of two who ever played in the World Series (Curtis Granderson).
Overall, Uribe was more important than his .219/.301/.430 batting line. He was more important than his six homers and 20 RBI. Uribe was important because he provided the Mets with a credible third baseman. Uribe was important because he was the first sign that the Mets were ready, willing, and able to go for it in 2015. Uribe was important because he was great in the clubhouse.
A late season injury robbed him of much of his chance to contribute in the postseason. He did work his way back, made the World Series roster, and got to contribute with an RBI pinch hit single in the lone game the Mets won in the World Series.
Uribe brought an energy to the team. He was a joy to watch. He left an impact on the team. He left an impact on the fans. We were all better off for Uribe’s three months in a Mets uniform.
He’s now joining a Cleveland Indians team that’s very similar to what the 2015 Mets once were. I would not be surprised if the Indians had a good year next year. I’d be shocked if Uribe wasn’t a big part of that.
I’m going to miss Juan Uribe. He’s a big reason why the Mets are back . . . ALRIGHT!
After the Mets make a decision at catcher, the team appears like they will have between $82 – $96 million to build a roster and re-sign their pitching.
Looking at the roster, the Mets will need to obtain starters at the following positions: 1B, 2B, SS, and RF. David Wright is scheduled to make $15 million, so whether or not you believe he will be able to stay at the position, he will remain with the team in some capacity. Michael Conforto should still be with the team as the leftfielder. Finally, unless the Mets can move him, Juan Lagares and his $9 million salary will be the team’s centerfielder. The Mets organization is fairly well stocked with position players right now, and they might be able to fill out the roster with cheap, cost-controlled talent.
First Base
Somewhat controversely, Keith Law named Dominic Smith the 29th best prospect in all of baseball. He’s the first baseman of the future.
Accordingly to the scouting reports, Smith is a good defensive first baseman that should be able to hit. The debate really is whether he will hit for power. Whether or not he hits for power, people see him as being able to field the position and be a good major league hitter.
With Lucas Duda being a free agent in 2018, the Mets will need Smith to be ready. If he’s not ready, the Mets will need a stopgap. In either event, by the time the Mets pitchers start to become free agents, Smith should be the first baseman earning around $500,000.
Second Base
We have to assume that one of these years Dilson Herrera is going to transition from second baseman of the future to the Mets second baseman. With Neil Walker only having one year until free agency, it appears that time will be 2017.
Right now, Herrera has less than one year’s service time. For all the supposed newfound depth, it’ll probably be Matt Reynolds getting called up to the Mets. That will preserve his service time. It means that in 2019, Herrera should be the second baseman, and he will have accrued two full years service time. Unless he gets enough playing time, it appears like he will avoid Super Two status meaning he will be in the same $500 – $600 thousand range as Smith.
Shortstop
As far as organizational depth, the Mets seemingly have an embarassment of riches with two high end shortstop prospects with Gavin Cecchini and Amed Rosario. They also have the aforementioned Reynolds.
Given Asdrubal Cabrera‘s contract, Cecchini and Rosario are going to have time to develop on the minors. At a minimum, Cabrera is signed to be the Mets shortstop through the 2017 season. If he produces well, or the prospects need another year, Cabrera has an option that could keep him with the Mets through the 2018 season.
As such, neither Cecchini or Rosario will be arbitration eligible at the time the Mets pitchers start to reach free agency. Accordingly, the Mets will only have to spend around $500 thousand when the pitchers begin to become free agents.
Left Field
It seems Michael Conforto is the leftfielder of the past (2015), present, and future. He very well should be too. Even if Conforto doesn’t improve upon his 162 game averages he achieved as a 22 year old, who never played above AA, you’re getting a good defensive outfielder who will hit .270/.335/.506 with 26 homers and 75 RBI.
Fortunately, Conforto will not have accrued enough service time to achieve Super Two status. Unfortunately, Conforto will most likely become arbitration eligible the same time that the Mets pitchers are reaching free agency.
Looking over the past few years, there isn’t really a good comparable to Conforto. It seems that when teams have good young corner outfielders, they lock them up. With that in mind, although an admittedly imperfect comparison, J.D. Martinez is instructive.
In 2014, Martinez was 26 years old, and he hit .325/.358/.553 with 23 homers and 76 RBI in 123 games. He became arbitration eligible after this season, and he agreed to $3 million. In 2015, he had another good year hitting .282/.344/.535 with 38 homeruns and 102 RBI. He and the Tigers avoided an arbitration hearing. Martinez’s contract extension bought out the remainder of his arbitration years he’s due to make $6.75 million in 2016 and $11.75 million in 2017.
While we may or may not agree on whether Martinez is a good comparable, it would be fair to say Conforto is at least capable of hitting .272/.344/.535 by his age 25 season, if not sooner. If that’s the case, it would be fair to suggest Conforto could earn anywhere from $3 – $6 million in his first year of eligibility.
Right Field
Curtis Granderson‘s contract will expire after the 2017 season. Since he will be 37 heading into the 2018 season, it’s hard to imagine he will be re-signed to be the everyday right fielder.
Now, Wuilmer Becerra projects to be an everyday player. Scouts believe he has the bat to play the corner outfield spot. The issue as far as the Mets are concerned is how quickly the 21 year old minor leaguer will need before fulfilling that promise. Last year, Becerra played his first year in full season A ball. That’s a long trek to the majors by 2019.
So unless Brandon Nimmo can handle the corner outfield offensively, which unfortunately seems unlikely, the Mets will have to look outside the organization to fill that void.
If Becerra is still a well regarded prospect, the Mets are likely to bring in a player on a one to two year deal. In retrospect, depending on how he finishes out his contract, Granderson could be coaxed back on a one-year deal ata much lower contract price.
As a placeholder, let’s presume the cost of a right fielder would cost about $15 million. That’s what Granderson is slated to earn the last year of his contract.
Cost of the Projected 2019 Starting Lineup
If everything breaks right for the Mets, they will have a group of young, cost-controlled position players at the time their starting pitchers hit the free agent market. If this pans out, the Mets everyday position players would cost about $46.5 million.
That’s roughly what the Mets are paying their current starting infield. In total, the 2016 Mets starting lineup is due to be paid roughly $90 million. Essentially, the Mets will be spending half the amount of money on their starting lineup in 2019 than they will this season.
Overall, this leaves the Mets between $35.5 – $49.5 million to build a bench, a bullpen, and to pay their starting rotation if the payroll remains stagnant at the $140 million range.
In judging players, managerial moves, and the like, sometimes we forget that players are human beings. It was something I was again reminded of when I read about Jon Niese‘s statements in the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette about the 2016 season:
I should never have played that game. It [stunk] that I wasn’t there at the hospital. That’s when it all went downhill. I think that’s the thing guys don’t really realize with sabermetrics. If I wouldn’t have pitched in that one game, I probably would have stayed the course, stayed in a rhythm, but that just kind of knocked me off.
Now, Niese has a history of making excuses for his poor performances. However, he may not be off-base here.
Niese had a rough May, but he was turning things around. In June, he had a 3.00 ERA. Including the aforementioned start, Niese had a 2.87 ERA in the month of July. In that July start, he pitched three innings allowing six earned on eight hits. Looking at his stats, he’s right. His 2015 season went completely off the rails at that point.
After his son was born, he made 10 starts. He had a 4.99 ERA. Batters were tattooing him hitting .282/.344/.418. With Steven Matz returning from the DL, he was put in the bullpen. To his credit, it was a move Niese wanted to make.
There are several legitimate reasons why Niese had a terrible 2015. He claims it was being taken out of his rhythm. It’s possible. It’s also possible that it all had to do with the birth of his first child. I’m sure he was racked with guilt for not being there for his child’s birth. He had to do what he could do to help his wife when she was in another state.
Being a new parent is hard. It’s got to be even more difficult when you are so far away. You’re unable to see your child, to hold him, to see that little hand grab your finger.
This is what Niese was dealing with last year. A player who was renown for being a head case had even more on his plate. He then went on to have an absolutely miserable August and September. He was adjusting to life as a new father.
Niese is now in Pittsburgh. He’s with a new, perhaps better, pitching coach. His new pitching coach had shown he can work well in getting pitchers to resurrect their careers, to be better than they ever were before. He’s primed to have a much improved 2016.
By being in Pittsburgh, he’s also closer to his family. Things are settling down more at home. It’s bound to put him in a better frame of mind. It might be all Niese needed.
He’s only human after all.
Terry Collins grew up watching baseball in an era when you had batting average, homeruns, and RBI to judge hitters. There was W-L record, ERA, and strikeouts to judge pitchers. Back then, utilizing the eye test was justifiable as there was no way to really quantify all you are seeing.
It’s important to keep this in mind when analyzing Terry Collins’ opinions on advanced statistics:
It’s become a young man’s game, especially with all of the technology stuff you’ve got to be involved in. I’m not very good at it. I don’t enjoy it like other people do. I’m not going to sit here and look at all of these [expletive] numbers and try to predict this guy is going to be a great player. OPS this. OPS that. GPS. LCSs. DSDs. You know who has good numbers? Good [expletive] players.
This quote reminds me of when I talk baseball with my Dad. He’s actually two years older than Terry Collins.
Whenever I talk to my Dad about baseball, I sometimes refer to advanced statistics. I will refer to WAR, FIP, UZR, etc. When I refer to them, he looks at me incredulously. He doesn’t know what they are. He doesn’t understand them. He asks me how to calculate them. I will give him a cursory explanation, but I can’t give him the exact formula. He can’t sit down and calculate it with his calculator. He’d rather talk about the statistics in which he’s more conversant.
The strange thing is I became interested in part due to my Dad. Growing up, he always told me to take W-L record with a grain of salt. He told me OBP was more important than batting average. He told me this in the 80’s! Back then merely suggesting that was heresy.
Now, we’re well beyond OBP and ERA being the advanced statistics to analyze. In many ways, Terry Collins is right. The game of baseball has passed them by. These newfangled statistics really are for a younger generation. Yet, we can all still enjoy baseball in our own way.
We don’t really need advanced statistics to tell us Matt Harvey is a really good pitcher. Yes, advanced statistics will support that conclusion. I love sitting there and watching games with my Dad. I remember in 2013 when he said that he expected Matt Harvey to throw a no-hitter every time he goes out to pitch. One night, we were there when it almost happened.
I love hearing my Dad tell me about how impossibly great Tom Seaver was. I love hearing him tell me that despite that he wanted Jerry Koosman on the mound for a big game.
So yes, how we analyze the game has changed since my Dad was a kid. Not to mention that teams are even trained differently from the days of old, with new technology and tools like the baseball swing trainer V2 and others available for anyone who aspires to be a solid player. It still doesn’t mean he doesn’t know a great player when he sees one. It doesn’t mean he doesn’t have a wealth of knowledge when it comes to the game of baseball. It doesn’t mean I don’t love talking baseball with him.
There will come a time when there are new statistics I won’t understand. I’ll be too old and set in my ways to learn the new ones. My son will roll his eyes at me when I refer to someone’s WAR or UZR. There’s going to be new statistics that will make all I think I know obsolete. That’s fine as long as we’re talking baseball (hopefully about his career). That’s all that matters.
No matter what happens, no matter what new statistics arise, the game never passes you by. As long as there are fathers and sons talking baseball, the game will belong to each and every generation. It will be a shared experience.
With that said, hopefully one day, my son will be able to explain to me what LCS and DSD is before I begin ignoring all thess newfangled statistics.
There are legitimate reasons why you would say the Mets will not win the NL East. Fangraphs used its projection system to predict the Mets will finish behind the Nationals in the NL East.
Agree or disagree, at least we know Fangraphs has a rationalization for its conclusions. On the other hand, USA Today proudly flaunts they have no such projection formula. They just use the “human element” necessary in such projections to proclaim not only that the Nationals will win the NL East, but also that the Mets will miss the playoffs altogether.
Mets Aging Offense
One reason why USA Today sees the Mets falling behind the Nationals is an aging lineup with “six regulars on the wrong side of 30.” For what it’s worth, here’s a look at the Mets 2016 Opening Day starters:
- Travis d’Arnaud (27)
- Lucas Duda (30)
- Neil Walker (30)
- David Wright (33)
- Asdrubal Cabrera (30)
- Michael Conforto (22)
- Yoenis Cespedes (30)
- Curtis Granderson (35)
If we adhere to the axiom that a player’s prime is between 27-32, another way of saying what USA Today said was six of the eight Mets regulars are in their prime. Another way of saying what USA Today said is six of the eight Mets regulars are 30 and younger.
To put this in perspective, lets look at the Nationals 2016 projected lineup:
- Wilson Ramos (28)
- Ryan Zimmerman (31)
- Daniel Murphy (30)
- Anthony Rendon (25)
- Danny Espinosa (28)
- Jayson Werth (36)
- Ben Revere (27)
- Bryce Harper (23)
Three of the Nationals players are “on the wrong side of 30.” The average age of the eight Nationals regulars is 28.5. The Mets is 29.6. According to USA Today, that extra year is an indication that the Mets are in decline and the Nationals are on the rise.
Bartolo Colon: Fifth Starter
Personally, I am not the biggest Bartolo Colon fan. With that said, I can’t think of him making around 15 starts next year as a reason why the Mets will miss the playoffs.
Last year, Colon had an ERA+ of 89, and an FIP of 3.84. This makes him a below average starter. Keep in mind, he will only be in the rotation until July when Zack Wheeler has completed his rehab from Tommy John surgery.
The Nationals counter-part? Tanner Roark Roark is thrust into the starting rotating from the bullpen as the Nationals lost their second best starting pitcher, Jordan Zimmermann, to free agency. Roark had an ERA+ of 92 and a 4.70 FIP. In theory, Roark is keeping the spot warm for uber-prospect, Lucas Giolito. However, it should be noted Giolito has not yet pitched above AA.
Considering which statistic you choose, you can argue Roark is either just as bad or worse than Colon. As such, Colon is not a reason to say the Mets will finish behind the Nationals.
Thor’s Innings
One factor USA Today cited in saying the Mets should finish behind the Nationals is the scary prospect of Noah Syndergaard having to throw 50% more innings.
This is plain wrong. Last year, Syndergaard threw 150.0 innings in 24 major league starts. In the minors, he threw 29.2 innings in five starts. Does USA Today reay believe Syndergaard will throw 359.1 innings next year? The last pitcher to throw over 300 innings was Steve Carlton, and that was 36 years ago. The last pitcher to throw over 350 innings was Wilbur Wood in 1973.
No, Syndergaard threw 179.2 innings in 29 starts. If he averages roughly the same 6.1 innings per starts next year, and he makes 32 starts next year, he will only throw 19 more innings or 10% more innings.
Instead of Syndergaard’s innings, USA Today should’ve focused on Nationals starter Joe Ross. Last year was Ross’ first year in the majors. He made 13 starts with three relief appearances throwing 76.2 innings. In the minors, Ross made 14 starts and threw 76.0 innings. Between the two stints, he made 27 starts while pitching 152.2 innings. Next year, he will see a much greater percentage work increase than Syndergaard will.
Overall, if the increased workload is an issue for Syndergaard, it’ll be a bigger issue for Ross.
Matz’s Durability
Another factor mentioned for the Mets apparent downfall is the fact that Steven Matz has never thrown more than 140 innings in a season.
Well that is true. You know what else is true? In his entire pro career, Matz has a 2.25 ERA, including a 2.27 ERA in six starts with the Mets last year. Keep in mind, this is the Mets fourth starter and a favorite in the Rookie of the Year race.
Overall, USA Today is throwing cold water on the Mets rotation while ignoring the Nationals rotation issues. There are the aforementioned problems with Roark and Ross. Additionally, the Nationals saw Gio Gonzalez being to regress with a 1.423 WHIP last year. That’s an ugly number for a guy who has a reputation for struggling with command. Furthermore, he just hit that dreaded age 30 season.
Also, while Max Scherzer had an outstanding year last year, it should be noted it wasn’t perfect. Scherzer went 10-7 with a 2.11 ERA in the first half of the year. In the second half, he went 4-5 with a 3.72 ERA. Also, at age 31, he’s “on the wrong side of 30.”
Dusty Baker is a Magician
Last year, Matt Williams was worse than Jimmy Dugan was before he got into that fight with Dottie Henson as to whether or not Marla Hooch should bunt. Note, Jimmy Dugan was right. It very rarely makes sense to have a position player lay down a sac bunt.
Baker had earned the right to be a well regarded manager. However, he’s not a miracle worker.
He doesn’t make Anthony Rendon healthy for a full year as USA Today suggests. He also doesn’t make Steven Strasburg completely fulfill his potential making him a Cy Young winner. He doesn’t make Zimmerman or Werth healthy and productive. Yes, he can get the most from this admittedly talented Nationals team, but no, his presence alone doesn’t help this team overcome all of its issues. The only thing I would hazard a guess at is he would probably prevent Jonathan Papelbon from choking anyone in the dugout.
Picking Nits
Overall, USA Today has teams having a combine record of 2347-2430. Since baseball has no ties, any projection system should have teams as a whole with a .500 record. It’s an error. We all make them. With that said, with the decidedly one-sided analysis of the NL East, I believe it shows the attention to detail provided.
Conclusion
I’m not the typical Mets fan. The Nationals do scare me. You can concoct many a scenario in which the Nationals win the division. I just don’t think the one-sided analysis USA Today did was one of them.