Musings
There are a number of ways to analyze Travis d’Arnaud‘s shoulder problems. It can be used as another example of the narrative that he’s injury prone. It could be used to explain his poor start at the plate. It could be used to explain why the Reds were 5/5 in stolen base attempts on Monday.
It can also be seen as another opportunity for Kevin Plawecki.
Plawecki had that chance last year, and he couldn’t take advantage. He hit .219/.280/.296 with three homers and 21 RBI. His OPS+ was 63, and his wRC+ was 60. It was about as ugly an offensive year as you could’ve had. To put it in perspective, Eric Campbell had a higher OPS+ and wRC+. You know it’s been a tough year at the plate when Campbell was the better hitter.
Now, there were valid reasons for his struggles. First, he had no protection in that lineup. The aforementioned Campbell was at one time a middle of the order bat. Second, he might not have been ready. He had played less than one season’s worth of games in AAA. Finally, he had some health issues. He had offseason sinus surgery to help alleviate the dry spells he experienced during games last year.
Whatever the reason, he struggled mightily. He was once seen as someone who could push d’Arnaud for playing time last year. Instead, his 2015 showed that d’Arnaud was clearly the better player. The Mets could’ve opted to start him in AAA this year to help his development, but ultimately, the team decided it was better to have him as a backup catcher.
Now, depending on the severity of d’Arnaud’s shoulder, Plawecki is going to get a second chance to show the Mets he can be the team’s primary catcher. He can show them he can be the .290/.364/.432 hitter he was in the minors. He has an opportunity to show his poor 2015 offensive numbers were driven by a low .277 BABIP. He can show the team he’s every bit the pitch framer d’Arnaud is. He can show the Mets he’s more durable. Possibly, Plawecki can show he’s a better player and Wally Pipp d’Arnaud in the process.
Plawecki is getting that all too valuable second chance to show the Mets he can be every bit the player they thought he was and more. He’s getting a chance to show the world what how good a ballplayer he really is. In essence, he’s getting a chance to show everyone he is better than d’Arnaud.
This time he’s in a much better lineup. He has major league playing experience. He’s had surgery to alleviate the dizzy spells. He’s out of excuses. This is his chance, and he needs to take full advantage of it.
Editor’s Note: this article was also published on metsmerizedonline.com
Earlier today, I published a proposal to change the way the fans vote for the All Star Game. To show how this may work, here is my best guess on how the fans may vote based upon if fans were voting today:
AMERICAN LEAGUE
AL East
Baltimore Orioles – Manny Machado 3B
Boston Red Sox – David Ortiz DH
Toronto Blue Jays – Josh Donaldson 3B
Tampa Bay Rays – Kevin Kiermaier CF
New York Yankees – Dellin Betances RP
AL Central
Chicago White Sox – Chris Sale SP
Kansas City Royals – Alex Gordon LF
Cleveland Indians – Francisco Lindor SS
Detroit Tigers – J.D. Martinez RF
Minnesota Twins – Joe Mauer 1B
AL West
Oakland Athletics – Sonny Gray SP
Texas Rangers – Adrian Beltre 3B
Seattle Mariners – Felix Hernandez SP
Los Angels Angels of Anaheim – Mike Trout CF
Houston Astros – Jose Altuve 2B
Now, as the season progresses and players improve, we could see changes here and there like Miguel Cabrera in place of J.D. Martinez. Overall, this looks to be a fair projection. Of the 15 players selected, there were three starting pitchers, one reliever, no catchers, one first baseman, one second baseman, three third baseman, one shortstop, one left fielder, two centerfielders, one rightfielder, and a DH. With nineteen spots left, there is plenty of room left to assemble a complete All Star Game roster.
NATIONAL LEAGUE
NL East
Washington Nationals – Bryce Harper RF
New York Mets – Noah Syndergaard SP
Philadelphia Phillies – Vincent Velasquez SP
Miami Marlins – Giancarlo Stanton RF
Atlanta Braves – Freddie Freeman (?) 1B
NL Central
Chicago Cubs – Anthony Rizzo 1B
St. Louis Cardinals – Yadier Molina C
Pittsburgh Pirates – Starling Marte LF
Cincinnati Reds – Zack Cozart SS
Milwaukee Brewers – Ryan Braun LF
NL West
Los Angeles Dodgers – Clayton Kershaw SP
Arizona Diamondbacks – Paul Goldschmidt 1B
Colorado Rockies – Nolan Arenado 3B
San Francisco Giants – Buster Posey C
San Diego Padres – Melvin Upton, Jr. LF
In total, the National League would have three starters, no relievers, two catchers, three first basemen, no second basemen, one third baseman, one shortstop, three left fielders, no centerfielders, and two rightfielders. Again, there’s plenty of room to fill in the rest of the roster.
OVERALL
By no means should my choices here be interpreted as the final say or who I would vote for if these rules were adapted. It’s only a guess.
With that said, there are some young and exciting players here like Syndergaard and Lindor. There are bona five superstars like Harper and Trout (who also qualify as young and exciting). Also, there are players here like Freeman and Velasquez, who may not be chosen to an All Star Game, but nevertheless, they would be there because every team must be represented. Look, if you’re going to name someone to the All Star Game who wouldn’t be there but for one rule, you might as well let those fans pick the players.
At the end of the day, these are mostly deserving All Stars, and their inclusion would not hamper Ned Yost’s or Terry Collins’ ability to field a team. It’s time to let fans pick their own players.
Six years ago to the day, I woke up with a bundle of nerves. The Mets were under .500, and they were sending Jon Niese to the mound against the Braves. Niese has never instilled any Mets fan with confidence.
Initially, I had high hopes for this team. After 2009, they were more comfortable in Citi Field and knew how to play there. Jose Reyes and David Wright were in their prime. Carlos Beltran had a full offseason to rest up, get healthy, and return to his dominant form. I thought Ike Davis would get a call-up and be a legitimate middle of the order power threat. I thought Jason Bay would succeed with the Mets after playing so well for the Red Sox. The team had an ace in Johan Santana and an emerging pitcher in Mike Pelfrey. K-Rod was the closer, and promising young rookie Jenrry Mejia was going to be his set-up man. There was a lot to like.
Those feelings of optimism faded away early in the season. They lost seven of their first 10 games. Jerry Manuel was the manager, and he was managing like it. The team was barely able to score runs against the Cardinals’ position players in a 20 inning game. The Mets were under .500. Worse yet, they had to face Larry Jones – err, Chipper – and the Braves. The Mets countered with the enigmatic Niese against a player and team that killed the Mets. It’s enough to make any Mets’ fans stomach turn.
By the way, it was also my wedding day.
Yes, my wedding day. That one I knew I got right. I was marrying the most beautiful woman I’ve ever met (still is), and she had no clue she was way too good for me (still is). Honestly, I was not nervous at all about marrying her. I was only nervous about the logistics of the day. I was nervous about missing the Mets game. Priorities.
I made sure I was ready well in advance so I could watch the game from first pitch. I caught the first couple of innings at home before getting in the limousine and heading to the Church. As we got to the Church, it was still 0-0. Now, as a superstitious sort, I knew I couldn’t hang around in the limo listening to the game because I couldn’t risk seeing my then fiancée in her dress before she entered the Church. Accordingly, I tipped the driver a couple of bucks to funnel me score updates until the game was over.
Last thing I knew as a single man, the Mets were losing 1-0 to the Braves. Sounds about right. After seeing my wife head up the aisle, I forgot all about the Mets. I was excited to marry the best person I’ve ever known.
Once the mass was over, we had the proceeding line. All my wife could do was laugh when the limo driver came over to give me the score. The Mets won 3-1. She knew what she was getting into marrying me. I put the Mets out of mind, did our wedding photos, and then had the greatest wedding reception ever.
By the way, my wife nixed the idea of having Mr. Met serve as the maitre d’. It wasn’t my idea (although I fully supported it). Some of the ushers started a collection, but it quickly died down when my wife caught wind of it. Speaking of the ushers, I did win the pool because I didn’t cry during the mass. First round of drinks in Hawaii were on them.
After my wife and I got married, the Mets went on a winning streak and took over first place. I had no idea because I was on my honeymoon (although we did fly Jet Blue so I could watch the Mets and Braves play the Sunday Night Game).
During my honeymoon, I paid no attention to the Mets. Spending time with her then (as it is now) will always be more important. I just enjoyed each and every moment of being married to my beautiful wife. I still do. Marrying my wife was the best decision I ever made.
Happy Anniversary honey.
This past week, I was able to interview Anthony Scaramucci regarding him and his partners purchasing the Mike Piazza post 9/11 homerun jersey. I appreciate Mr. Scaramucci purchasing the jersey and taking the time to answer my questions.
Special thanks goes to Mets Merized Online, who not only ran this interview on their site, but also many other of my Mets articles.
I also appreciate the links and recommendations for this interview including being part of Adam Rubin’s Morning Links. My wife was so thrilled she got a screen shot of it:
There were also links from SNY and Kevin Kernan, whose reporting brought the issue to light.
I appreciate everyone who linked the interview as well as those who took the time to read it. I especially appreciate those who read the site day in and day out.
After last season, you would want to believe that the Mets wouldn’t want to underestimate their own pitching prospects and expose them to the Rule 5 draft.
The Mets got very, very lucky with Logan Verrett. Everyone underestimated him. Perhaps it was a result of a low 90’s fastball. Perhaps it was because he relies on control, changing your eye level, and working both sides of the plate rather than blowing a 100 MPH fastball by you like Noah Syndergaard.
In any event, the Orioles decided he was worthy of a Rule 5 pick but not worthy of making their Opening Day roster. The Rangers scooped him up and decided after six games he couldn’t help them. He was returned to the Mets. He pitched well out of the bullpen and in spot starts. This year he’s made two spot starts and hasn’t allowed a run in 12 innings. The Mets needed him more than they ever knew. Fortunately for the Mets, the Orioles and Rangers never realized what they had in Verrett. The Mets got very lucky.
This year the Mets may not be so lucky with Matt Bowman.
Bowman was taken by the Cardinals in the Rule 5 draft. Partially due to Jordan Walden opening the year on the DL, Bowman made the Opening Day roster. So far this year, Bowman has appeared on five games pitching 6.2 innings. He has a 1.35 ERA and a 0.900 WHIP. He’s predominantly throwing a 93 MPH sinker. He mixes in the occasional slider (88 MPH) and splitter (82 MPH). It’s a short sample size, but Bowman looks good out of the bullpen. There’s no reason to believe the Cardinals will let him go.
The head scratching part was there was no excuse for why the Mets let Bowman become a Cardinal. The Mets had roster space. They could’ve protected Bowman. To make matters worse, they lost what appears to be a good bullpen piece. How did this happen?
In answering, this question it is important to note teams typically keep a roster spot open so they can make a pick in the Rule 5 draft in the event there’s a player out there who can help them. It’s how the Mets acquired Sean Gilmartin last year, and he became a valuable part of the bullpen. So in reality, the question was who should the Mets have left off the roster in place of Bowman.
The Mets did subsequently lose Kirk Nieuwenhuis on waivers. The Mets traded Darrell Ceciliani for cash. Carlos Torres and Ruben Tejada were initially offered contracts only to subsequently be released. The Mets also could’ve realized what they had and did the unconventional and just put Bowman on the roster barring them from making a Rule 5 draft pick. The Mets didn’t. Instead, they exposed Bowman in the draft in the oft chance they could’ve found someone of his caliber in the Rule 5 draft. How did this happen?
Simply put, like Verrett, Bowman didn’t have lights-out stuff. He is a four pitch pitcher that was projected to be, at best, a back of the rotation starter or bullpen arm. He really regressed his first full year in AAA. In 2014, he was 3-2 with a 3.47 ERA and a 1.294 WHIP in six starts and one relief appearance. In 2015, he made 26 starts and two relief appearances. Bowman would finish the year 7-16 with a 5.53 ERA and a 1.679 WHIP. Entering the 2015 season, he was seen as a back of the rotation starter or a bullpen arm. His 2015 season reasonably cast doubt on those projections. At age 25, it appeared like the former 13th round draft pick’s development had stalled.
It didn’t, and it shouldn’t be surprising as Bowman has looked for ways to improve. He has tried to emulate Tim Lincecum‘s delivery. While in college, he studied Sabermetrics, and he has sought to use it to find ways to improve. Basically, there’s no rock this former 13th round pick will leave unturned to he better. He’s built himself into a major league pitcher.
However, Bowman is pitching for the Cardinals, and the Mets have nothing to show for it. Worse yet, the Mets could’ve used him. With Jacob deGrom‘s lat injury (and problems with his son), Verrett was thrust into the starting rotation. Rafael Montero was recalled to help in the bullpen, but Collins has been loathe to use him.
Perhaps Collins would’ve trusted Bowman and allowed him to pitch. Unfortunately, we will never know. The Mets will not get lucky with a Rule 5 pick returning to the organization. Bowman is a Cardinal likely never to return.
Editor’s Note: this article was first published on metsminors.net
Last year, it was rough at times watching Wilmer Flores play shortstop. He didn’t look quite natural. He had trouble turning the double play. Worse yet, he seemingly took these struggles to the plate.
For a variety of reasons, Flores was thrust out of his role as the starting shortstop. The Mets handed the job back to Ruben Tejada, who at least looked the part. Tejada was steadier. He looked more fluid. And yet, Tejada was actually worse than Flores at shortstop. While Flores had a – 2.5 UZR and -10 DRS, Tejada had a -5.6 UZR and a -15 DRS. It’s surprising to see that Tejada was that much worse because he really did look better at shortstop. A big part of that was shortstop was his natural position, and he was more comfortable out there.
After the 2015 NL Pennant winning season was over, the Mets sought to upgrade their shortstop position. They wanted to put both Flores and Tejada on the bench. The ultimately released Tejada. In their stead, they added Asdrubal Cabrera.
Through the Mets first 14 games, Cabrera has looked good at shortstop. Unlike Flores, he is a natural shortstop. He’s comfortable turning the double play. He makes the routine plays with ease. When using the eye test, Cabrera has been nothing short of a revelation.
According to the stats, he hasn’t been. So far this year, Cabrera has a -1.1 UZR and a -2 DRS. To be fair, this is too short a sample size to make any judgments. However, this is indicative of Cabrera’s abilities at short. Last year, he had a -6.0 UZR and a -8 DRS. The prior year he had a -6.6 UZR and a -7 DRS. Despite how he looks, Cabrera isn’t a good shortstop.
In reality, Cabrera was brought here to hit. The Mets wanted the pop in his bat. In the second half last year, he hit .328/.372/.544 with 10 homeruns and 36 RBI. So far this year, he’s hit .314/.364/.392. Those numbers would be higher if he didn’t have a homerun taken away on replay in Philadelphia. In sum, Cabrera has been a positive addition to the Mets thus far. He’s been exactly what the Mets thought they were getting.
A steady shortstop with poor range who hits the ball well.
As we’ve seen with Lucas Duda, fans can use streakiness as a perjorative to hide their contempt for a particular player. However, when fans love a player, like Yoenis Cespedes, they talk about how he carries a team or wins the NL East.
Make no mistake about it, Cespedes is just as streaky as Duda.
Cespedes was a superstar when he came to the Mets, or so it seemed. In his first 10 games as a Met, he hit .262/.279/.333 with no homers, five RBI, and seven strikeouts. Then Cespedes went off on an absolute tear starting with the last game the Mets played in Colorado. Starting from that point, Cespedes had a 31 game streak like none other. He hit .323/.379/.805 with 17 homers and 37 RBI. It was incredible. After that streak? Cespedes finished the season hitting .280/.345/.320 with no homeruns and two RBI in eight games.
Cespedes cold snap would carry into the postseason. In the postseason, he hit .222/.232/.352 with two homeruns and eight RBI in 14 games. Yes, Cespedes dealt with hand and shoulder injuries, but it’s also true Duda dealt with back problems. It doesn’t make either player anymore or any less streaky.
So far this year, Cespedes has continued the streaky play. In the first eight games, he hit .233/.324/.333 with no homeruns, three RBI, and 11 strikeouts. In the six games since, starting with a trip to Cleveland, Cespedes is hitting .360/.429/1.000 with four homeruns and 10 RBI.
Fact is Yoenis Cespedes is both streaky and beloved by the fan base. He bunches his homeruns together during his hot streaks. He’s capable of carrying a team on his back for long stretches of time without a moment’s notice. Therefore, next time you knock a player for being streaky, just remember the guy you put on a pedestal as being able to carry a team is just as streaky.
Personally, I’ll take a Duda or Cespedes hot streak whenever they come.
Last year, Lucas Duda hit 27 homeruns. He had a stretch where he hit eight homeruns in seven games. He hit seven homeruns in May, eight homeruns in July, and six homeruns in September/October. The other three months of the year, he hit 10 total. Many people have attributed this streakiness to Duda’s high leg kick.
Since 2012, various Mets hitting coaches have worked with Duda to work on reducing his leg kick. It appears this Spring, Kevin Long was finally able to get him to reduce his leg kick. Long also got Duda to take less batting practice. All of this is designed to make Duda a healthier and more consistent hitter. So far this year, Duda’s leg kick is much less pronounced.
For example, this was a homerun he hit in the NL East clincher:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ZK-RlkIvrmc
Here’s a homerun he hit last night in Philadelphia:
It’s clobbering time! Lucas Duda went full #DudaSmash on his first home run of the season. https://t.co/ysZr0TY7fuhttps://t.co/C1UwEe7kHY
— New York Mets (@Mets) April 19, 2016
Now, after not homering in his first 10 games, he has homered in three straight games. It’s a long season, and you shouldn’t make judgments after 14 games, but Duda is once again hitting homeruns in bunches. It could be this is a small sample size, but it could also be that this is who Duda is. He’s a streaky homerun hitter.
If it’s as simple as Duda is a streaky homerun hitter that’s fine. Since Duda has become the Mets everyday first baseman, he has a .350 OBP. That means even when he’s not hitting homeruns, he’s getting on base. Additionally, looking at this lineup, the Mets don’t need Duda to carry them for stretches at a time. However, when Duda gets in a homerun groove he can carry a team.
The aforementioned stretch of eight homeruns in seven games coincided with the Mets sweeping the Nationals en route to the Mets taking control of the NL East for good. In that three game sweep of the Nationals, Duda hit three homeruns in nine at bats with five RBI. In that three game series, he hit .626/.667/1.875. When Duda gets hot, he’s scorching red hot. He can carry the Mets, and he can make a difference in the NL East.
Whether Duda’s streakiness will continue this year even with a reduced leg kick is besides the point. The only thing that matters is that Duda continues to be the good OBP first baseman that can carry the Mets for stretches. So long as he continues this, he will have had another terrific year.
When Sandy Alderson, J.P. Riccardi, and Paul DePodesta were first hired by the Mets, everyone assumed the Mets were going to be recreated in the image of the high OBP Scott Hatteberg Oakland Athletics teams.
However, upon reflection of what the Alderson regime has done here, the team has been more focused upon power than they’ve been on OBP. That philosophy was on display last year when Yoenis Cespedes came aboard, and it’s on display again this year:
17 HR by the @Mets in their last 5 games is their most in a 5-game span
Previous: 16 (last season)@EliasSports pic.twitter.com/4NuSWA4t65
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) April 20, 2016
Over the offseason, the Mets brought in three players to play everyday. There was the aforementioned Cespedes with his career .320 OBP. Cespedes also hit 35 homeruns last year while slugging .612 as a Met. Neil Walker has a career .336 OBP, but he averages 16 homeruns per year. He led all Major League second basemen in homeruns last year. Asdrubal Cabrera was signed to be the new shortstop. He has a career .329 OBP, but he did hit 15 homeruns last year.
That’s not to suggest the Mets do not value OBP. This is the same team that did choose Lucas Duda over Ike Davis, in part because Duda got on base more frequently. Rather, it shows the Mets put more emphasis on homerun power than OBP. The Mets aren’t looking to clog the bases and manufacture runs. Rather, they are looking for players that can change an inning or a game with one swing of the bat.
This shouldn’t surprise anyone.
Let’s re-examine that fabled 2002 Oakland Athletics Moneyball team. As we know, they actively sought out players like Hatteberg because they were undervalued and could get on base. That year, the Athletics ranked fourth in the AL and seventh in the majors in OBP. The same year, the Athletics ranked fourth in the majors (and the AL) in homeruns. While the Athletics no longer had Jason Giambi, one through nine, their lineup still had players that could hit the longball. The OBP got the headlines because it was a shift in how people viewed baseball, but the homeruns are what powered that Athletics offense.
The Athletics being powered by the longball wasn’t anything new or groundbreaking. It was what powered the Athletics when Alderson was the GM. From 1988 – 1990, the Athletics went to three World Series winning one. In 1988, the Athletics were ranked second in the majors and the AL in homeruns. Their rankings slipped in 1989 to seventh in the AL and eleventh in the majors, in part due to injuries like Jose Canseco‘s wrist, but the Athletics rose back up the ranks in 1989. In 1989, the Athletics were ranked third in the AL and fourth in the majors in homeruns.
Overall, Sandy Alderson, J.P. Riccardi, and Paul DePodesta have built teams that hit homeruns. Even if everyone expected different, this regime is doing what they’ve always done, and that’s building an offense based on their batters hitting homeruns. By the way, when they’ve successfully accomplished this goal, they’ve won a lot of games and went to the postseason.
The Mets roster is full of game changers. The pitching staff can change a game with their dominating stuff. Most of the lineup can change the game with the swing of the the bat. However, there’s only one gamechanging defensive player.
Lagares won the Gold Glove in 2014 despite playing in only 116 games. He was that good. His UZR was 18.5, and his DRS was 26. These are elite numbers. His numbers were better in 2013 when his UZR was 21.5, and his DRS was 26. Overall, he’s a deserving Gold Glover. Time and again, he can change a game by getting to a ball no one else could field. He’s a game changer in the field.
Except last year. Lagares’ offense and defense slipped noticeably. Yes, he had an elbow injury that was rumored to require Tommy John surgery. However, that would explain his offense and throwing more than his range. Last night, Lagares showed everyone that he’s back:
That right there is Lagares’ true value. He saved three runs there (even if it didn’t matter in terms of the game). While Terry Collins may look to platoon Lagares with Michael Conforto to get Lagares’ bat in the lineup against lefties. Collins is mistaken. The Mets don’t need Lagares’ bat. They need his glove. They need him out there late in the game to protect leads with his play in the field.
He will make a catch like he made last night again – only next time it’s going to change the outcome of a game.