Musings
The Mets have gone through Eric Campbell, Ty Kelly, and Matt Reynolds as bench players. Unfortunately, none of them performed up to expectations. Finally, the Mets felt compelled to trade a good prospect like Akeel Morris for Kelly Johnson. It was a deal made after the Mets had already gone through almost every single last option they had in the minors who could play multiple positions.
Actually, they didn’t. The Mets never gave T.J. Rivera a shot.
Rivera has done all you could ask from a player. He has learned multiple positions. He’s capable of playing every position in the infield even if he’s not truly adept at any single position. After being passed over for a promotion to the majors by Kelly, Rivera dedicated himself to learning the outfield to make himself even more attractive to be a major league call-up. He has hit .361/.401/.526 so far in AAA this year. He as the Pacific Coast League’s Player of the Month for the month of May. Again, Rivera has done everything to merit a call-up. It just isn’t happening.
Was Rivera the solution to the Mets bench problems? Probably not. He was still a 27 year old undrafted minor league player. Yet, he still possessed skills that could of translated to the major leagues. He had the potential to be a contact hitter with doubles power. He could have filled in all across the diamond. There are a lot of things Rivera was capable of doing if only he got the chance. He won’t for reasons that are still unclear, and frankly, are unfair.
So yes, the Mets minor league system is worse for having lost a real prospect in Morris. It’s frustrating that he was traded away for a player that could have been re-signed by the Mets in the offseason. However, that frustration doesn’t match the frustration Rivera must be feeling now knowing that the Mets may never give him his chance despite him having earned an opportunity.
Jimmy Rollins has been a career .264/.324/.418 hitter. In the prime of his career, he was a .286/.342/.468 hitter. In 2007, he predicted the Phillies would win the NL East, and he backed it up by being the MVP that year. He was a clubhouse leader on a Phillies team that went to the postseason five straight years and won the 2008 World Series. He’s won four Gold Gloves at shortstop. Rollins has been a very good major league player. The problem is Rollins isn’t that player anymore.
Last year, Rollins hit .224/.285/.358 in 144 games with the Dodgers. There’s no sugar coating it. Rollins wasn’t good last year. It’s why the Dodgers called up Corey Seager at the end of the year, and why Rollins and Seager split time at shortstop during the NLDS. Despite his struggles, Rollins was able to latch on with the Chicago White Sox this year. In 41 games, Rollins hit .221/.295/.329. It is no wonder why for the second straight year Rollins has been pushed aside for a shortstop prospect. This year it was Tim Anderson, and this year it came much quicker. Rollins has been designated for assignment. He’s now 37 years old, and he is facing the very real prospect that his career might be over.
It might be time for the Mets to throw Rollins a lifeline.
Even with how poor Rollins is playing, he’s still a better player than what they have. With the Kelly Johnson addition, the Mets have one spot left on the bench that is going to Matt Reynolds. Even in a two year spiral, Rollins is playing better than Reynolds. Additionally, Rollins has been a proven leader on a World Series winning team. As we saw last year with Juan Uribe, you cannot add enough veteran bench pieces to a team that has World Series aspirations.
Now, one thing that is obvious is Mets fans don’t like Rollins. They don’t like anyone from those Phillies teams especially Chase Utley. With that said, Mets fans will get over it if Rollins is a positive contributor. The Mets fans had no issue with Orel Hershiser in 1999, and they had no issue with Orlando Hernandez a/k/a El Duque in 2006. There were no issues with Kelly Johnson either last year or this year. Ultimately, all Mets fans want is to win. They will cheer whoever helps them win. That includes Jimmy Rollins.
Overall, the Mets should look into adding Jimmy Rollins into the mix.
The Mets have three big holes due to three players going down with significant injuries. Lucas Duda has a stress fracture in his back. David Wright has a herniated disc in his neck in addition to his spinal stenosis. Travis d’Arnaud has a torn rotator cuff in his throwing shoulder.
With this in mind, the Mets have to answer a few questions as the trade deadline approaches:
- Are any of the three players likely to return?
- Do the Mets have viable internal options to replace that player?
- What is out there on the trade market?
Working backwards, we see the biggest name on the trade market is going to be Jonathan Lucroy.
Lucroy is having a terrific year this season hitting .304/.361/.515 with nine homeruns and 28 RBI. It shouldn’t be a surprise that Lucroy is playing this well as he is better in even numbered years than odd numbered years since he became a full time starter in 2011. In 2012, his OPS+ was 132; in 2014, it was 131, and this year it is 132. In short, we can reasonably expect Lucroy to keep this up.
Lucroy’s just as successful behind the plate. He is a good pitch framer. He’s gunned down 42.9% of would be basestealers. Simply put, Lucroy is as much of a complete catcher as there is in the game. He’s also a massive upgrade over d’Arnaud’s replacements.
Since d’Arnaud’s last game on April 25th, Rene Rivera and Kevin Plawecki have combined to hit .190/.273/.289. While they have been good pitch framers, and Rivera has been a stabilizing force behind the plate, Plawecki and Rivera have both established themselves as poor hitting backup catchers. The Mets need a starting catcher that can hit. That was supposed to be d’Arnaud. It could be Lucroy now.
With that said, the Mets should pass on Lucroy despite his being better than any of the Mets catchers.
The reason the Mets can do this is because d’Arnaud has begun playing in rehab games, and he has had no setbacks this far. He will begin catching in rehab games soon. As per baseball’s 20 game rehab rule, d’Arnaud is set to return to the Mets on Sunday, June 26th at the latest.
Assuming he’s healthy, d’Arnaud can continue being a good overall catcher. He’s a better than average pitch framer. He’s coming off a .268/.340/.485 season. He hit three homeruns in the postseason last year. The only issue that remains is if he can throw out base stealers with his injured shoulder. With the way Mets pitchers hold on base runners, that may not be as big an issue as one might normally believe.
With his injury history, there may come a point in time the Mets decide to move on from d’Arnaud. That time may come sooner rather than later. However, now is not that time. The Mets have bigger issues.
James Loney has been a fine stopgap at first base, but he’s still only hitting .250/.302/.350. He’s not the long term solution. Wilmer Flores has done a yeoman’s job at third hitting .389/.450/.500. He is been much better with his approach at the plate. He is working the counts and starting to draw some walks. He also has an unsustainably high .500 BABIP leading you to believe he is due for a regression back to the .255/.292/.385 career hitter he is. Overall, the Mets continue to have long term holes at first and third with no one really knowing when or if Wright and Duda can return.
Accordingly, the Mets need to husband their resources so they can make a move to acquire a third and/or first baseman. That’s not Lucroy UNLESS the Mets feel comfortable paying the huge price he’ll command on the trade market to play first base . . . a position he has only played 43 games in his seven year career.
Editor’s Note: this was first published metsmerizedonline.com
To their credit, the Mets have built an organization deep with pitching talent. When you do that, you are eventually going to be faced with a difficult decision over who to keep and who to trade, who to promote and who to keep down, and who to protect and who to expose in the Rule 5 Draft. These are difficult and challenging decisions. With that said, this is why the front office is paid the money that they are paid. This past year the Mets had a choice between protecting Matthew Bowman or Jeff Walters in the Rule 5 Draft.
Bowman was a 2012 13th round selection out of Princeton University. He is a four pitch pitcher with no real outstanding out pitch. He was projected as a back of the rotation starter for a Mets organization that is deep in pitching talent. Therefore, if Bowman was ever going to make it to the majors, he was going to have to make it in the bullpen as a swing guy like a Logan Verrett or a Sean Gilmartin. With that in mind, the Mets decided to protect the player who had already had success in the bullpen.
That was their 2010 seventh round selection out off the University of Georgia, Jeff Walters. Walters possessed a 95+ MPH fastball with a hard slider he had difficulty controlling. In 2013, he had a breakout season in AA going 4-3 with a 2.01 ERA and a 1.017 WHIP. In 2014, he was promoted to AAA, and he struggled mightily. As it turned out, Walters needed Tommy John surgery costing him the end of the 2014 season and the beginning of the 2015 season. When he returned, he started working his way back up the Mets minor league system starting with Savannah. He ended the year in AA where he went 2-0 with a 1.96 ERA and a 1.091 WHIP in 18 innings.
Now, it was likely that either Bowman or Walters were going to be picked in the Rule 5 draft given their repertoire and success in the minor leagues. You could’ve easily made a case for either player. The Mets chose Bowman. Unfortunately, the Mets chose wrong.
With the Cardinals this year, Bowman has been pitching well out of the bullpen. In his 19 appearances, he is 1-1 with a 3.60 ERA and a 1.080WHIP. Batters are only hitting .232/.286/.347. To put it in perspective, current Mets reliever Jim Henderson is a 1-2 with a 3.52 ERA and a 1.348 WHIP. Batters are hitting .221/.313/.384 against him. So overall, Bowman has not only pitched well this year, but he has also pitched well enough to be considered for the current Mets bullpen, which has been good all year.
Walters, on the other hand, has not been very good. Walters reported to AAA where he has pitched in 26 games going 0-2 with a 9.22 ERA and a 2.268 WHIP. Due to the Mets current roster crunch with the various injuries at the major league level, Walters was the natural choice to remove from the 40 man roster. Unfortunately, Walters hasn’t rewarded the Mets faith in him when they selected him over Bowman.
This predicament only serves to highlight the fact that the Mets have a strong minor league system. Hopefully, Walters will rebound and return to the form the Mets had seen from him in AA. In the meantime, Bowman continues to have success for the Cardinals. Fortunately, the Mets decision to keep Walters over Bowman hasn’t served to come back and bite them. Hopefully, it never will.
Editor’s Note: this was first published on metsminors.net
Despite the Pirates being in the thick of the Wild Card race, and there being no reason to expect for them to drop out of the race, Jon Heyman wrote in his Today’s Knuckleball article that the Pirates could be willing to part with David Freese at the trade deadline. Due to the Mets injury situation, Heyman linked Freese to the Mets.
Assuming that Freese is truly available, and the price is reasonable, Freese would be a solid addition to the New York Mets.
For his career, Freese is a career .277/.346/.418 hitter with a 112 career OPS+ and 115 wRC+. His 162 game averages are 30 doubles, 15 homeruns, and 77 RBI. With the exception of a poor 2013 season, which has proven to be an outlier, Freese has been an average defensive third baseman. Over the course of his career, Freese has been a good hitter and a solid defender. He would be a benefit to almost any team with postseason aspirations.
Here’s the catch: Freese has been even better this year.
This year, Freese is hitting .292/.373/.427 with a 127 OPS+ and a 124 wRC+ in 51 games. This could be construed as a small sample size, but there are some underlying numbers that suggest his current batting line will be sustainable over the course of a full season. First, Freese is still beating up on lefties like he has done his whole career. He has faced lefties in 21 games this year, and he is hitting .366/.409/.610 against them. For a Mets team that has been having some difficulty against lefties, especially with the Nationals Gio Gonzalez, adding Freese’s bat would be beneficial.
However, Freese’s numbers are not just reflective of his facing lefties. Freese is also hitting better against rightes. For his career, Freese has been a .269/.337/.401 hitter against righties. He is now hitting .269/.362/.369 against them. It’s a moderate, but important, improvement. The underlying reason for this improvement may be his approach at the plate. Freese has been hitting a lot of groundballs this year. Freese is hitting the ball on the ground 64.2% of the time. Normally, in this age of the shift, this could be construed as a negative. Many times, we have seen batters like Curtis Granderson pull balls in to the shift. That isn’t the case with Freese. Historically, Freese has hit the ball to all fields. In fact, over the course of his career, Freese pulls the ball 35.1% of the time, hits it up the middle 36.4% of the time, and goes to the opposite field 28.5% of the time. In essence, it is hard to defend a player like that with the shift.
One of the corresponding factors to Freese hitting more groundballs is his hitting fewer flyballs. Typically, unless you are hitting the ball over the fence, flyballs are turned into outs. With Freese hitting fewer flyballs there is a decreased chance he will hit into an out. The increased groundball rate coupled with the decreased flyball rate are strong factors in Freese’s high .397 BABIP. Typically, the league average is .300, which would lead many to believe that Freese is due for a regression. Even if that were to happen, keep in mind Freese’s career BABIP is .342. In essence, he is someone who’s natural talents led to a higher BABIP. Therefore, even if Freese were due for a regression, it wouldn’t be as drastic as one might believe it to be.
Another benefit to adding Freese is the fact that he’s a more versatile player now. Since he has joined the Pirates, Freese has also played at first and second in addition to third. Thereofr,e even if David Wright and Lucas Duda were to return to the Mets completely healthy, Freese would still be an useful player off the bench.
Overall, Freese appears to be a better hitter and a more versatile fielder. He’s exactly the type of player the Mets should be looking to add to the team. The only thing standing in the way of that happening is the Pirates. They first have to make him available, and the Mets need to be willing to meet their demands. That is much easier said than done.
Editor’s Note: this was first published on metsmerizedonline.com
Well, it appears that Matt Harvey will be gone in 2019 if not sooner. According to Jon Heyman of Today’s Knuckleball, a Mets impression of Harvey is, “He’s Gone.”
What we don’t know is why. Is Harvey gone because he is intent on testing free agency? Is Harvey gone because the Mets don’t like the negative media attention that surrounds him? Is Harvey gone because there are clubhouse conflicts? Is Harvey gone because the Mets just don’t want to spend the money? Is Harvey gone because the Mets believe his early season struggles are more indicative of a decline than a mechanical issue? Fact is, we don’t know, and we may never know.
What we do know is that the Mets were lucky to have Harvey. He was the first piece of the Mets turnaround when he burst on the scene in 2013. He had amazing game after amazing game. He almost pitched a perfect game against the White Sox, and he started the All Star Game. His return in 2015 was a key part of the Mets winning the division and going to the World Series. He almost willed the Mets to victory in Game 5. Time and again, Harvey has delivered. The hope is that he can help the Mets deliver a World Series title before he departs.
The hope now is that if the Mets are intent on moving on from Matt Harvey that they at least lock up Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard. Both players have been just as instrumental as Harvey has been in this great turnaround. Unfortunately, according to Heyman, the Mets haven’t approached either one of them about a long term contract. Hopefully, the Mets will. This team is built on pitching, and they will need to keep some of these guys. However, it seems like Harvey will not be one of them.
With that said, we should all enjoy Matt Harvey while we all can.
In 1989, we were on a family vacation to Philadelphia at the same time the Mets were playing at the Vet. When my Dad picked up the free hotel newspaper, he noticed that Frank Viola was the Mets scheduled starter. It doesn’t take much for my Dad to want to take us to a Mets game. That night, my Dad wanted to take us to the game because we had an opportunity to see a former World Series MVP and Long Island native take the mound.
There haven’t been many players from Long Island who have played in the big leagues. The best player that comes to mind is Hall of Famer Craig Biggio. There are even fewer that play for the Mets. There was the aforementioned Viola. There has also been John Valenin and John Lannan, both of whom had less than stellar Mets careers. However, last year, Steven Matz burst onto the scene.
Like my Dad, I took my son to see Matz’s first game at Citi Field. It was an event with him pitching 7.2 innings allowing five hits, two earned, and two walks while striking out six. He was also 3-3 at the plate with a double and four RBI. It was a glimpse into what a special player he was going to become. So far in his young career, Matz is 11-2 with a 2.36 ERA. There are many reasons why Matz is so good. There have been many that have helped him along the way including his AAA pitching coach Frank Viola.
After the first day of the MLB draft tonight, it appears that Viola is going to get a couple more Long Island players to help out.
With the 19th selection, the Mets selected Freeport native Justin Dunn. Like most, I really don’t know that much about Dunn other than the published scouting reports. Here is all I’ve seen of him pitch so far:
On a special note, he is slated to pitch tonight for Boston College in the NCAA Baseball Super Regionals against Miami at 5 P.M. That game will be televised on ESPNU.
The other pitcher the Mets drafted was Anthony Kay who went to high school at Ward Melville. This is the same high school that Matz attended. They were not classmates as Kay was in 8th grade when Matz was a senior. It seems like the Mets have liked Kay for a long time:
The Mets drafted Anthony Kay in 2013 in the 29th round but were unable to sign him. They now get him with the #31 overall pick.
— Michael Mayer (@mikemayer22) June 10, 2016
Again, like Dunn, I don’t know much about Kay other than the scouting reports. Unlike Dunn, we’re not going to be able to see him pitch as UConn has already been eliminated. In the interim, if you are interested in seeing him pitch, here is a clip:
Sooner or later, we will get to see both Dunn and Kay pitch so long as they are able to agree to terms with the Mets. If so, it is likely they will be placed on the Brooklyn Cyclones roster where they can pitch close to home (closer for Dunn). Whether or not the fact that these players grew up as Yankee fans is irrelevant. What matters is that these local players are with the Mets now, and they are going to help the Mets in the future.
With the way things are going, they may eventually be joined by a couple of other Long Islanders since it is suddenly becoming a breeding ground for Mets pitching.
Other than David Wright and Steven Matz, the Mets players grew up rooting for another team. That includes Matt Harvey, who grew up as a Yankee fan.
Do you know what Harvey’s Yankee fandom has to do with his pitching? Absolutely nothing. He just wants to win. He pitched more than anyone did post-Tommy John surgery. He gave it his all during the postseason. He may have grown up a Yankees fan, but right now, all he wants to do is to get a World Series ring with the Mets.
This dumb issue reared its head when the Mets selected Justin Dunn in the first round. He’s a Long Island kid from Freeport that grew up rooting for the Yankees. This will have no bearing on how he will pitch for the Mets when he gets to the big leagues. Oh, and by the way, I think he’s just a little excited to be a Met:
When you get picked 19th overall in the #MLBDraft with 34 of your brothers there with you!https://t.co/8fc04P6QIj
— BC Baseball (@BCBirdBall) June 10, 2016
Dunn just proves that these guys are excited to be Mets no matter who they rooted for growing up. He wants to be a Met, and that’s all that matters at the end of the day.
Over the past year, the Mets have made a number of trades to not only help them go to the World Series last year, but also to help them become World Series contenders again this year. With Neil Walker returning to Pittsburgh to not one but two standing ovations, and the draft scheduled for later today it seems like today is a good day to take a cursory view of how the players the Mets traded away are faring.
Kelly Johnson & Juan Uribe for Robert Whalen & John Gant
Robert Whalen – Whalen has made 11 starts for the Atlanta Braves AA affiliate going 4-4 with a 2.88 ERA and a 1.247 WHIP. At the time of the trade, Whalen was seen as a back of the rotation starter, and his performance this year should not change those impressions.
John Gant – Despite never having pitched above AAA before this season, Gant got a cup of coffee early on with the Braves showing off his very unorthodox delivery. He predictably struggled pitching to a 6.17 ERA and a 1.714 WHIP in seven appearances. Gant was sent back down to AAA where he has pitched better. In eight appearances, he has a 3.14 ERA and a 1.233 WHIP. He appears on track for another promotion before the year is over, especially with the way the Braves want to sell everything.
Tyler Clippard for Casey Meisner
Casey Meisner – The 20 year old Meisner pitched well for Oakland’s Advance A affiliate pitching going 3-1 with a 2.78 ERA and a 1.052 WHIP in seven starts. This year, for the first time in his brief career, Meisner is struggling going 0-9 with a 4.55 ERA and a 1.645 WHIP in 11 starts. At 21, Meisner is still young for his league, and he is still walking too many batters. If Meiser can make the ncecessary adjustments, he can get back on track to being the mid to top of the rotation starter he was projected to be.
Yoenis Cespedes for Michael Fulmer & Luis Cessa
Michael Fulmer – Fulmer only received three AAA starts before the Tigers felt compelled to bring him up to help fix a beleaguered rotation that included former Met Mike Pelfrey. Fulmer has shown himself to be every bit the ace people anticipated he might be one day. He has gone 6-1 with a 2.83 ERA and a 1.175 WHIP. In his last four starts, he is 4-0 with a 0.32 ERA and a 0.635 WHIP.
Luis Cessa – Cessa was actually traded to the Yankees in the offseason, and he made his major league debut with them. In his three appearances, he had a 2.57 ERA and a 0.857 WHIP. In the minors, he has been in the rotation with less success. In his five starts (with one relief appearance), he is 0-1 with a 4.50 ERA and a 1.214 WHIP. Ultimately, Cessa has the stuff to be either a back end of the rotation pitcher or a middle reliever. His brief cup of coffee with the Yankees has shown he does have the ability to pitch in the majors.
Eric O’Flaherty for Dawrin Frias
Dawrin Frias – After the conclusion of the 2015 season, Frias become a minor league free agent. To date, no one has signed him.
Addison Reed for Miller Diaz & Matt Koch
Miller Diaz – Diaz is struggling mightily for the Arizona Diamondback’s high A affiliate going 0-1 with a 7.76 ERA and 2.414 WHIP in 15 games (inlcuding three starts). Diaz was seen as nothing more than a major league reliever, at best, and these statistics make that proposition a stretch.
Matt Koch – Koch is having another strong year in AA. In his five starts, he is 0-2 with a 2.66 ERA and a 1.310 WHIP. While Koch was seen as a bullpen piece, if he keeps improving the way he has, he may have a shot to stick with the back end of someone’s rotation.
Neil Walker for Jon Niese
Jon Niese – Niese’s early season struggles have seemed to go by the wayside. While he started the year 3-1 with a 5.94 ERA and a 1.680 WHIP, he has settled down and pitched much better of late. We just saw him pitch seven innings in beating the Mets. In his last six starts, he is 3-1 with a 2.15 ERA and a 1.141 WHIP.
For the most part, the players the Mets traded are playing well. It shows the Mets gave up valuable pieces for the quality players they received. The hope is the Mets have enough trade assets this year to swing a deal or two like they did last year.
This time last year fans were begging the Mets to call up Michael Conforto. He was seen as part of the solution to the Mets offensive issues. When he was called up on July 24th, he delivered. Conforto hit .270/.335/.506 with a 131 OPS+. He would hit two homeruns in a Game Four of the World Series. He jumped out of the gate this April hitting .365/.442/.676. He looked to be well on his way to become a superstar. Then he stopped hitting.
Since May 1st, Conforto has hit .165/.231/.339. He’s striking out 30.6% of his at bats. He’s gone from the leader in hard hit rate to 21st. He dropped from hitting the ball hard 31.4% of the time to just 21% of the time. It’s a big dropoff. It begs the question what is wrong with Conforto?
In reality, there’s nothing wrong with Conforto. He is a 23 year old player who has never played a single game in AAA. He is allowed to struggle.
Also, some of his early season success was unsustainable. He had a .411 BABIP. The league average is .300. While some have a natural talent to hit above the .300, no one has a .411 BABIP. Also, his current .188 BABIP is also unsustainable. It should be of no surprise that Conforto’s true talent kids in the middle, which is a really good thing.
He’s also not hitting lefties . . . yet. In 45 plate appearances, he’s hitting .095/.133/.095. This includes him going 0-3 against Madison Bumgarner on May 1st. Do you know what 45 games is? It’s a small sample size. His numbers aren’t pretty, but they’re also not indicative of his true talent level. In AA last year, Conforto hit .333/.414/.490 against lefties in 58 plate appearances. For the sake of comparison, Conforto hit .303/.388/.508 against righties in 139 plate appearances. Even if Collins won’t play him against lefties, it doesn’t mean he’s incapable or that playing him against a lefty will throw him into a tail spin. For his part, Kevin Long, Conforto’s hitting coach, believes that Conforto can hit lefties if given a chance.
Overall, Conforto can hit righties and hit lefties. He’s just in a prolonged slump. Hes just a 23 year old who still needs to make adjustments in the big leagues. He has the talent to do so. He’s hit every step of the way. He hit last year, and he has hit well at times this year. As we saw with Conforto’s sacrifice fly and homerun last night, he’s not only going to hit, he’s going to get big hits. When Conforto does turn things around, National League pitching is going to be in a lot of trouble.
When that happens, we are all going to be reminded just how good Conforto really is.