Musings
Time and time again, we have all seen the Mets fail to get a base hit with a runner in scoring position. It should come as no surprise to anyone that the Mets woeful .207 team batting average with runners in scoring position is the worst in all of Major League Baseball. It is 53 points lower than the .260 league average and 89 points lower than the St. Louis Cardinals .296 team batting average with runners in scoring position. It gets worse. The Mets have a .288 team OPB with runners in scoring position, which is again the worst in the Major Leagues. This is 49 points lower than the league average .337 OBP with runners in scoring position, and it is 90 points lower than the St. Louis Cardinals league leading .378 team OBP with runners in scoring position.
At this point, what usually follows is a debate between traditional fans and fans that follow more of a stats based approach. Traditional fans believe hitting with runners in scoring position is a real skill set, and if a team is unable to hit with runners in scoring position, a team will be unable to score runs. Stat based fans will tell you hitting with runners in scoring position isn’t an actual skill, and like anything else, everything tends to regress to the mean. Regardless of your point-of-view, all fans tend to subscribe to the back of the baseball card concept wherein players tend to play to their seasonal averages on a year-in and year-out basis. With that common ground in mind, here are how the current Mets players have fared with runners in scoring position along with the amount of times they have come up this year with a runner in scoring position:
| Player | PA | 2016 | Career |
| Asdrubal Cabrera | 70 | .180 | .256 |
| Eric Campbell | 19 | .125 | .168 |
| Yoenis Cespedes | 70 | .254 | .301 |
| Michael Conforto | 56 | .250 | .256 |
| Travis d’Arnaud | 24 | .182 | .224 |
| Alejandro De Aza | 23 | .050 | .294 |
| Lucas Duda | 34 | .185 | .235 |
| Wilmer Flores | 41 | .297 | .270 |
| Curtis Granderson | 73 | .274 | .242 |
| Kelly Johnson | 50 | .214 | .261 |
| Ty Kelly | 10 | .111 | .111 |
| Juan Lagares | 21 | .158 | .271 |
| James Loney | 37 | .281 | .302 |
| Brandon Nimmo | 11 | .200 | .200 |
| Kevin Plawecki | 30 | .240 | .274 |
| Jose Reyes | 8 | .167 | .285 |
| Matt Reynolds | 12 | .250 | .250 |
| Rene Rivera | 31 | .259 | .235 |
| Neil Walker | 75 | .254 | .276 |
| David Wright | 38 | .226 | .293 |
* Kelly Johnson’s stats includes his 2016 stats from his 49 games with the Braves this year
While much of the ills of the season has been pinned on Campbell, Kelly, and Reynolds, the three of them have combine for only 41 plate appearances with runners in scoring position. To that end, another scapegoat, De Aza, has not hit whatsoever with runners in scoring position. These four batters have combined for 63 plate appearances which is still less than the plate appearances the either Cabrera, Cespedes, Granderson, or Walker have had individually this year.
Of that group, Granderson is the only batter who is hitting well with runners in scoring position. In fact, he is the only one who is hitting higher than his career average with runners in scoring position. Considering the fact that Cabrera has not gotten a hit with a runner in scoring position since April, it should be no surprise that he is the biggest culprit of the group.
The one encouraging sign is that most of these Mets players are underachieving with runners in scoring position. If these players finish the rest of the year producing at the rate they have done throughout their careers, this Mets team will start to score many more runs.
All Alejandro De Aza and Eric Campbell jokes aside, how many times has this Mets team played a game with a full 25 man roster at its disposal? Given the fact that Hansel Robles had to serve a two game suspension to start the season, it didn’t even happen on Opening Day.
There have been several occasions where Mets players have gotten nicked up forcing the Mets to make the decision of whether they should play with a short-handed roster for a few games or whether they should put that player on the disabled list. Time and again, the Mets have understandably gone with a short roster as it is better to be without an important player for a game or two rather than being without an important piece for a 13-15 game stretch. With the Mets in a tight race for one of the two Wild Cards and them trying to claw their way back into the race for the National League East race, they do not want to lose a player like Yoenis Cespedes for two weeks even as he is now clearly hobbled out there with his right quad injury.
Instead, the Mets will put Cespedes in left field hoping that he can manage his injury while Curtis Granderson and Michael Conforto, who had struggled in part to due a wrist injury that required a cortisone shot, try to hold down center field in the interim. Keep in mind this isn’t the first time that Cespedes has been nicked up this year. Earlier in the year, he was dealing with a hip issue that sapped him of some of his power. The Mets tried to give him a day here and there, but ultimately, they had to run him out there as he is the most important hitter in that lineup. Cespedes isn’t the only Mets player who dealt with injuries the Mets tried to navigate without a disabled list stint.
With Conforto and De Aza struggling in June, the Mets tried to avoid putting Juan Lagares on the disabled list with a torn ligament in his left thumb as the team needed his defense and his bat in the lineup. Asdrubal Cabrera has played much of the season with a knee injury that has troubled him since Spring Training. There was a stretch where Robles pitched through a sprained ankle. Steven Matz has the bone spurs in his elbow, and he could clearly benefit from a little breather to give his arm a bit of a break.
Putting teams in a position where they have to play with short-handed rosters is not good for the team. It’s not good for baseball or its fans. Regardless of your favorite team, when you sit down to watch a game, you want to see two teams at their best face-off. But that doesn’t always happen. Part of the reason is the current disabled list rules are antiquated.
The current disabled list system has been in place for 26 years. In 1990, MLB had added a 60 day disabled list to go in conjuction with the already existing 15 day disabled list. It replaced a system that had been in place for 24 years to reflect how baseball had changed.
And baseball has changed since 1990 especially with the banning of amphetamines and other PED substances. Whether true or not, it seems players get nicked up a little more frequently than they did a decade or so ago.
With that in mind, baseball should shorten the disabled list from 15 games to seven games. It should be noted baseball already has a seven day disabled list for concussions. It should be further noted there is a seven day disabled list in the minor leagues.
Speaking of minor leaguers, those players aren’t getting as much of a chance with the current 15 day disabled list. Right now, the Mets are trying to navigate through Cespedes’ quad injury while a player like Brandon Nimmo is playing in AAA. If there was a seven day disabled list, the Mets might be more inclined to utilize it so their best player could get healthy. It would give the Mets a full 25 man roster at their disposal. It would make them a better team, which in turn, would make for a better product for the fans to watch.
All that would need to happen for fans to see a better product is for baseball to implement the seven day disabled list. It already exists for concussions and the minors. It should be in place for all of baseball regardless of injury.
That was just a good baseball game. It featured a pitcher’s duel between the Cubs ace Jake Arrieta and one of the Mets aces Noah Syndergaard.
The Cubs struck first in the third when Syndergaard threw a wild pitch, which probably should have been smothered by Rene Rivera who made a backhand stab at the ball, allowing Willson Contreras to score. The Cubs were primed to score again in the following inning. Arrieta led off with a double, and he tried to score on a Tommy La Stella single. However, he would be mowed down by the new right fielder Michael Conforto:
This missile by @mconforto8 in the 4th looms larger now! #ScooterStrength#Mets 1 CHC 1 | Mid 6 pic.twitter.com/pKDePLmpKE
— New York Mets (@Mets) July 20, 2016
As the replay would show, Rivera made a great tag.
Syndergaard gutted his way through 5.2 innings throwing 105 pitches. He allowed seven hits, one unearned run, and two walks. He would strike out eight batters including his 300th career strike out. Jerry Blevins took over and would combine with Hansel Robles (two innings), and Jeurys Familia (33rd save) to win a 2-1 game.
The loss was no fault of Arrieta, who was terrific. He pitched seven innings, one run, and one walk with eight strikeouts. For a while, it appeared like the Mets wouldn’t score that run, and that the Mets would lose 1-0. Then Jose Reyes did what he used to do best, what he was brought back to do. He hit his 100th triple as a Met and gave the Mets a chance to build a run off his speed.
He would score off a Curtis Granderson sacrifice fly. The Mets tried to build another rally in the seventh. There were runners on first and second and Blevins was due up. For some reason, Terry Collins went to Alejandro De Aza instead of Kelly Johnson. Apparently, Collins was the only person who thought De Aza would come through in that spot. He didn’t.
In the ninth, there would be no De Aza or Arrieta standing in the Mets way. Neil Walker hit into a fielder’s choice after a James Loney leadoff single. Initially, it was ruled a double play, but replay would overturn the call. Walker was safe, and it wasn’t particularly close. Walker moved to second on an Asdrubal Cabrera single. After a Conforto strikeout, it appeared the Mets would fail to score a runner in scoring position again.
Instead, Rivera would hit a bloop single off Pedro Strop scoring Walker making it a 2-1 game. If that was the end of the game, it would have been a terrific game. However, it was what happened in the bottom of the ninth that made this a great game.
Familia walked Addison Russell and Miguel Montero to start the inning. Javier Baez then laid down a terrific bunt that he beat out. It was bases loaded with no outs. That’s a problem for mere mortal closers. It wasn’t an issue for Familia and his bowling ball sinker.
With the infield drawn-in, Matt Szczur to hit a ground ball to Loney, who threw out Russell at home. That brought up Kris Bryant to the plate, who could be the most dangerous hitter in the Cubs. Familia got him to ground into a game ending 5-4-3 double play.
It was a great instinctive move for new third baseman Reyes to go did the double play instead of the force out, and it was an incredible turn by Walker, who took a slightly offline throw with the runner bearing down on him to get the last out of the game at first.
This was easily the most exciting game of the year, and it was a great win.
We got you, Fam. https://t.co/szMZlgx62b pic.twitter.com/CvC0dLVsmg
— MLB GIFS (@MLBGIFs) July 20, 2016
Game Notes: Granderson started in center, and he was shaky out there. It is supposed to be temporary until Conforto is ready to take over. In his first full game back from AAA, Conforto was 0-3 with a walk and two strikeouts. Yoenis Cespedes really looked hobbled out there.
When you have a game started by Jose Fernandez and Noah Syndergaard, you can expect a pitcher’s duel, and the game on April 12, 2016 did not disappoint. Fernandez would pitch five shutout innings allowing only three hits and one run while striking out five. Syndergaard was better lasting seven innings allowing one run while striking out 12. With the game deadlocked at one apiece, it officially became a battle of the bullpens in the eighth innings. The Mets sent Jim Henderson to the mound to face the Marlins leadoff hitter Dee Gordon.
It was an epic 16 pitch battle that eventually saw Gordon hit an opposite field single to start the game winning rally. He would eventually come around to score on a Martin Prado sacrifice fly off of Jerry Blevins. As it would turn out Gordon played that game while he was in the midst of appealing an 80 game suspension for his use of exogenous testosterone and clostebol. About two weeks later, he would drop his appeal begin serving his steroids suspension.
It should be noted that through the first 92 games of the season, this game is the one game that separates the Mets and the Marlins in the standings. This is the one game that stands as the difference between the Mets being in playoff position and being on the outside looking in.
It’s ironic when you think about it. Pursuant to Major League Baseball’s new steroid policy, players who test positive for banned PED substances are barred from postseason play. As the MLBPA Union President Tony Clark stated, the players themselves wanted to make sure “a player is not coming back and affecting a change in the postseason as a result of the decision that particular player made earlier in the year.” (ESPN). It is quite understandable why baseball would not want a dirty player to possibly be the difference between a team winning or losing a World Series. No one wants to question if the World Series was acquired through ill gotten means like the Athletics with Jose Canseco and Mark McGwire, the Yankees with Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte, the Red Sox with Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz, or J.C. Romero, who got big out after big out en route to the Phillies winning the 2008 World Series.
Still, the way the rules are set up, the very same player can have a profound impact on whether or not that team even makes the postseason. We see that Gordon had an at bat that helps serve to separates the Mets and the Marlins in the standings. His suspension is scheduled to come to an end on July 28th. At that point, there will be 61 more games left on the schedule that Gordon can have a profound impact. Sixty-one more games in which he will be able to be the difference between winning and lose, between making the postseason or not. He can be the difference between making the postseason or not despite his being disqualified from making the postseason.
Even more ponderous is the fact that Gordon is going to play in his first minor league game tonight for the New Orleans Zephyrs. He’s playing for a AAA team despite being suspended from playing major league baseball for taking PEDs. Of course, baseball wants to have a player like Gordon banned from postseason play, but they’ll permit him to not only affect a pennant race, but also be in the best possible position to affect that pennant race once the suspension is over.
This isn’t to say that Gordon should forever be banned from playing baseball again. Players make mistakes. There can be false positives. No one wants to see a player forever lose their livelihood under these circumstances. However, it is contradictory for baseball to have a policy barring a player like Gordon from the postseason because they want to preserve the sanctity of that World Series title while also allowing Gordon to play games in that very same seasons thereby having an impact upon which teams do or do not qualify to play in that very same postseason.
Ultimately, if baseball’s goal is to preserve the sanctity of the World Series, the solution might be that if a player tests positive in a season, they are barred from playing in the regular season once the appeal process has been exhausted so that they tainted player will have no further impact upon the pennant race. If the player is not eligible for the postseason, that same player should have no impact upon which teams can play in the postseason. The player can still make their money once the suspension is over, and they can play games in the minors, but they will not be eligible to return to the majors until each and every team has clinched a postseason berth.
This is just one possible answer to the conundrum. It might be one that neither the owners or the players accept for various and sundry reasons. Hopefully, whatever it is, all of baseball needs to figure out a solution that makes sense for everyone as no one wants to be able to say that the difference between the Mets and Marlins in the 2016 season was a tainted player starting a game winning rally that proved to be the one game difference in the standings.
One thing that gets lost in the shuffle is that in Yoenis Cespedes‘ first game with the Mets is Terry Collins started him in left and put Curtis Granderson in center.
Heading into that game, Granderson was the more experienced center fielder having played 12 seasons in center field. Up until 2012, he was an average to very good center fielder who had averaged a 2.0 UZR and a 4 DRS in his first six full seasons as a major leaguer.
In 2011, he took a step back with a -5.1 UZR and a -2 DRS. Granderson would show he was no longer capable of being a center fielder the following year when he posted a -18.1 UZR and a -7 DRS. The Yankees moved him to right fielder where he has played so well that he was a National League Finalist for the Gold Glove. In reality, Granderson belongs in right considering his diminished range and weak arm.
For whatever reason, Cespedes became the main center fielder from his second game with the Mets through this year. The Mets turned to Cespedes who had averaged a -3.1 UZR and a -4 DRS in his three years of limited duty as a center fielder for the Oakland Athletics. Last year with the Mets, he posted a -3.2 UZR and a -4 DRS in roughly two months of duty.
The Mets dealt with Cespedes’ relatively poor play in center as he was mashing the ball. The Mets did it as a means to get his, Granderson’s, and Michael Conforto‘s bat in the lineup. It is the same reason why the Mets have accepted Cespedes playing a poor center field this year with his -10.1 UZR and -5 DRS. Strangely enough Cespedes is on pace to put up similar or worse numbers than those that forced Granderson out of center. In some ways, it is safe to say Cespedes isn’t a center fielder.
With Cespedes’ injured right quad he is now both literally and figuratively not a center fielder. The injury is hampering him at the plate and in the field, and as he stated, “I’d rather play left field because I feel more comfortable. And also it’s less work on my leg.” (ESPN.com). With that in mind, Cespedes wants to remain in left field, his Gold Glove position, for the rest of the year.
Even with Cespedes being a poor center fielder, his inability to play center creates a dilemma for the Mets. Granderson has established he can no longer play center. Juan Lagares is back to his Gold Glove form, but he can’t hit righties. His one-time platoon partner, Alejandro De Aza, can’t hit anybody. In some ways, it’s incredible that the Mets have four outfielders with center field experience. In other ways, it’s astounding that none of them are a viable center field option for the rest of the reason.
With that in mind, Collins has stated he’s considering using Conforto in center despite Conforto not having worked out in center since college and him not having played the position since presumably Little League. Given the limitations of the other four options, this idea may not be as crazy as it once may have sounded.
Putting Conforto in center allows the Mets to keep him, Granderson, and Cespedes in the same lineup. Furthermore, Conforto has shown the tools to play an adequate center field. He has good range, takes good routes to balls, and has a strong and accurate arm. He’s a player who has shown himself to not only be a hard worker, but also open to coaching.
It’s important to keep in mind that Conforto was once the player who scouts believed couldn’t handle left field. When he was called up to the majors last year, he showed he was a very good left fielder. Given his natural instincts and athleticism, it’s not absurd to think he could handle the position even if it is just for the short term. Given the other options before the Mets, it is certainly worth a try especially since the Mets need his bat in the lineup. In all seriousness, it is not like he would be worse than what Granderson and Cespedes were there. So, to that end, Conforto may actually wind up an improvement.
Really, it’s not crazy to think this could work.
When David Wright went down with what is seemingly season ending neck surgery, the Mets were left scrambling to find their long term solution at third base. Once Wilmer Flores came off of his own stint on the disabled list, he seemed to stake a claim to the position by playing the best baseball he has played in his young career. In his first 33 games since coming off the disabled list, he hit .294/.345/.461 with five doubles, four homers, and 17 RBI. He seemed to be fulfilling his promise as a versatile infielder with pop in his bat.
Ultimately, the Mets weren’t convinced. The team decided to Jose Reyes to play third base for a myriad of reasons including but not limited to the speed dimension to a team who had trouble hitting home runs unless they hit a home run. With that, Flores was back to being a bench option.
Yes, Flores would start the next three games upon Reyes’ arrival. He would start at second base in place of Neil Walker against the lefty Wei-Yin Chen, and he was in the starting lineup the following day to give James Loney the day off against the lefty Justin Nicolino. Flores would be double-switched into a few games, but he wouldn’t make another start until about a week later when the Mets faced the Nationals and Gio Gonzalez. Essentially, Flores has turned into a platoon player who seemingly will start in place of Loney at first base when there is a lefty on the mound. Terry Collins’ treatment of Flores is a far cry from the man who proclaimed about a year ago, “If you want to stay in the lineup, you’ve got to start hitting.” (ESPN).
Since he came off the disabled list, Flores has hit. He’s hit while the players around him haven’t. Neil Walker has been mired in a two plus month slump hitting .234/.310/.346 since May 1st. Reyes is hitting .222/.275/.556 in the nine games he has played since supplanting Flores in the lineup. Over their careers, Walker and Reyes have been better players than Flores. Furthermore, with Walker’s April and Reyes’ speed, you can argue they are much more important to the success of the Mets.
Still, they’re not hitting, and it’s one of many factors that’s hampering the team. From May 29th through July 4th, when Flores was the regular third baseman, the Mets averaged 4.3 runs per game. In the nine games since, the Mets are scoring 3.7 runs per game. In that stretch, the Mets went 4-5 including the team losing three of four to the Nationals. It’s a small sample size, but it’s an important one to keep in mind when Collins removed a productive hitter like Flores from the lineup.
The Mets are in the middle of a dogfight for one of two Wild Card slots, and they trail the Nationals by six games in the division with less than half a season to play. In order to make the postseason, the Mets need to put their best lineup out there each and every day. Right now, that should include Flores whether he’s playing in place of Reyes who’s still working his way back to form or Walker who’s struggling mightily.
Until such time as Reyes gets up to speed or Walker figured things out, Flores needs to play everyday.
Now that the All Star Game has come and gone and the non-waiver trade deadline two weeks away, Major League Baseball is in full pennant drive mode. Teams are assessing their needs and targeting the players who could fulfill those needs. Given the state of the Mets offense, the team needs a bat more than anything. Fortunately for them, they don’t need to go outside the organization to acquire that player as the team is recalling Michael Conforto.
If Conforto is the player he is supposed to be, the player we’ve seen glimpses of, it’s doubtful any team could add a player who will have the impact he could have on the Mets.
When Conforto was called-up last year, he hit a respectable .270/.335/.506 with nine homers and 26 RBI in 56 games. Extrapolating that over a full 162 game season, Conforto would’ve had 26 homers and 75 RBI. Seeing Conforto over the course of the second half last year coupled with his play in the postseason, that seemed like it was his floor.
Conforto’s April seemed to justify everyone’s high expectations. Conforto jumped out of the gate hitting .365/.442/.676 with four homers and 18 RBI. He was on pace to hit 29 homers and 133 RBI. Those numbers may seem unrealistic in a player’s first full season, especially for a player who never played in AAA, but they didn’t for Conforto. He was that good of a hitter.
Conforto forced Terry Collins to move him up to the third spot in the order. He was clearly the team’s second best hitter behind only Yoenis Cespedes. Conforto was well on his way until disaster struck.
From May 1st on, Conforto would hit .148/.217/.303. He would only get eight hits in his last 75 at bats. Everyone had a theory as to what happened. Some blamed the platoon system getting him out of a rhythmn. Others thought the game Madison Bumgarner dominated him and the rest of the Mets lineup got into his head. There was also the cortisone shot he needed in his wrist and his falling into bad habits at the plate. Whatever the case, he all but forced the Mets hands, and he was demoted to the minor leagues.
To his credit, Conforto put the work in he needed to down in AAA, and he has seemingly returned to the player he was; the player we all thought he could be. During his first ever stint in AAA, Conforto hit .344/.420/.623 with three homers and 15 RBI in 16 games. While his manager Wally Backman did sit him against two lefties, Conforto did get at bats against lefties going 6-16 with three walks and four RBI. More importantly, Conforto got back to being more patient at the plate and using the whole field more.
Additionally, Conforto played some games in right field thereby giving Collins’ more outfield alignment options, which should hopefully ensure Juan Lagares never again steps foot in any position other than center field. It should also help Collins figure things out with Cespedes stating he needs to play more left field with his injured quad.
Overall, Conforto has done what he needed to do in the minors. He’s ready to come back. He’s coming back at the right time too with Cespedes’ balky right leg and Brandon Nimmo struggling.
Conforto should be an even bigger boost to the Mets than he was last year. In fact, given what we’ve seen, given what he’s capable of doing, he will help the Mets more than any player any team adds to their major league roster prior to the trade deadline.
Editor’s Note: this was first published on metsmerizedonline.com
Little known fact after Jacob deGrom is he is also apparently also a master of karate:
Coming into Sunday’s game against the Phillies, deGrom was 14-3 with a 1.72 ERA and a 0.960 WHIP in day games. He limits batters to a .192/.261/.272 batting line. Certainly, deGrom has been the champion of the sun.
Sunday, it was more of the same as he pitched the first complete game shutout of his career in a Mets 5-0 win. Fittingly, the Dayman did it in Flipadelphia. The only Phillie to get a hit was the opposing pitcher Zach Eflin. He finished the game strong striking out the last batter of the game Odubel Herrera.
The final pitch of @JdeGrom19's complete-game one-hit shutout.#deGOAT ?????????https://t.co/bGQXKmpash
— New York Mets (@Mets) July 17, 2016
Overall, deGrom went the distance allowing just that third inning hit while walking one and striking out nine. He only needed 105 pitches meaning he was ever so close to accomplishing a Maddux, which is complete game shutout on less than 100 pitches (dubbed for Hall of Famer Greg Maddux).
Now, deGrom is 15-3 with a 1.63 ERA and a 0.923 WHIP in day games. He has defeated the Nightman, and he is a master of karate.
Friendship for everyone.
Game Notes: deGrom’s would also go 1-3 at the plate scoring on a Jose Reyes double. Asdrubal Cabrera continued his July tear hitting a two run homer. The other runs came off a Juan Lagares RBI triple, and a Curtis Granderson solo home run.