Musings

Wilmer Flores Needs to Play More

When David Wright went down with what is seemingly season ending neck surgery, the Mets were left scrambling to find their long term solution at third base.  Once Wilmer Flores came off of his own stint on the disabled list, he seemed to stake a claim to the position by playing the best baseball he has played in his young career.  In his first 33 games since coming off the disabled list, he hit .294/.345/.461 with five doubles, four homers, and 17 RBI.  He seemed to be fulfilling his promise as a versatile infielder with pop in his bat.

Ultimately, the Mets weren’t convinced.  The team decided to Jose Reyes to play third base for a myriad of reasons including but not limited to the speed dimension to a team who had trouble hitting home runs unless they hit a home run.  With that, Flores was back to being a bench option.

Yes, Flores would start the next three games upon Reyes’ arrival.  He would start at second base in place of Neil Walker against the lefty Wei-Yin Chen, and he was in the starting lineup the following day to give James Loney the day off against the lefty Justin Nicolino.  Flores would be double-switched into a few games, but he wouldn’t make another start until about a week later when the Mets faced the Nationals and Gio Gonzalez.  Essentially, Flores has turned into a platoon player who seemingly will start in place of Loney at first base when there is a lefty on the mound.  Terry Collins’ treatment of Flores is a far cry from the man who proclaimed about a year ago, “If you want to stay in the lineup, you’ve got to start hitting.”  (ESPN).

Since he came off the disabled list, Flores has hit.  He’s hit while the players around him haven’t.  Neil Walker has been mired in a two plus month slump hitting .234/.310/.346 since May 1st. Reyes is hitting .222/.275/.556 in the nine games he has played since supplanting Flores in the lineup. Over their careers, Walker and Reyes have been better players than Flores. Furthermore, with Walker’s April and Reyes’ speed, you can argue they are much more important to the success of the Mets. 

Still, they’re not hitting, and it’s one of many factors that’s hampering the team. From May 29th through July 4th, when Flores was the regular third baseman, the Mets averaged 4.3 runs per game. In the nine games since, the Mets are scoring 3.7 runs per game. In that stretch, the Mets went 4-5 including the team losing three of four to the Nationals. It’s a small sample size, but it’s an important one to keep in mind when Collins removed a productive hitter like Flores from the lineup. 

The Mets are in the middle of a dogfight for one of two Wild Card slots, and they trail the Nationals by six games in the division with less than half a season to play. In order to make the postseason, the Mets need to put their best lineup out there each and every day. Right now, that should include Flores whether he’s playing in place of Reyes who’s still working his way back to form or Walker who’s struggling mightily. 

Until such time as Reyes gets up to speed or Walker figured things out, Flores needs to play everyday. 

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Mets Biggest Trade Deadline Acquisition 

Now that the All Star Game has come and gone and the non-waiver trade deadline two weeks away, Major League Baseball is in full pennant drive mode. Teams are assessing their needs and targeting the players who could fulfill those needs. Given the state of the Mets offense, the team needs a bat more than anything. Fortunately for them, they don’t need to go outside the organization to acquire that player as the team is recalling Michael Conforto. 

If Conforto is the player he is supposed to be, the player we’ve seen glimpses of, it’s doubtful any team could add a player who will have the impact he could have on the Mets. 

When Conforto was called-up last year, he hit a respectable .270/.335/.506 with nine homers and 26 RBI in 56 games. Extrapolating that over a full 162 game season, Conforto would’ve had 26 homers and 75 RBI. Seeing Conforto over the course of the second half last year coupled with his play in the postseason, that seemed like it was his floor. 

Conforto’s April seemed to justify everyone’s high expectations. Conforto jumped out of the gate hitting .365/.442/.676 with four homers and 18 RBI. He was on pace to hit 29 homers and 133 RBI. Those numbers may seem unrealistic in a player’s first full season, especially for a player who never played in AAA, but they didn’t for Conforto. He was that good of a hitter. 

Conforto forced Terry Collins to move him up to the third spot in the order. He was clearly the team’s second best hitter behind only Yoenis Cespedes. Conforto was well on his way until disaster struck. 

From May 1st on, Conforto would hit .148/.217/.303. He would only get eight hits in his last 75 at bats.  Everyone had a theory as to what happened. Some blamed the platoon system getting him out of a rhythmn. Others thought the game Madison Bumgarner dominated him and the rest of the Mets lineup got into his head. There was also the cortisone shot he needed in his wrist and his falling into bad habits at the plate. Whatever the case, he all but forced the Mets hands, and he was demoted to the minor leagues. 

To his credit, Conforto put the work in he needed to down in AAA, and he has seemingly returned to the player he was; the player we all thought he could be. During his first ever stint in AAA, Conforto hit .344/.420/.623 with three homers and 15 RBI in 16 games.  While his manager Wally Backman did sit him against two lefties, Conforto did get at bats against lefties going 6-16 with three walks and four RBI. More importantly, Conforto got back to being more patient at the plate and using the whole field more. 

Additionally, Conforto played some games in right field thereby giving Collins’ more outfield alignment options, which should hopefully ensure Juan Lagares never again steps foot in any position other than center field.  It should also help Collins figure things out with Cespedes stating he needs to play more left field with his injured quad. 

Overall, Conforto has done what he needed to do in the minors. He’s ready to come back. He’s coming back at the right time too with Cespedes’ balky right leg and  Brandon Nimmo struggling. 

Conforto should be an even bigger boost to the Mets than he was last year. In fact, given what we’ve seen, given what he’s capable of doing, he will help the Mets more than any player any team adds to their major league roster prior to the trade deadline. 

Editor’s Note: this was first published on metsmerizedonline.com

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Mets Most Popular Pitcher

Back in the 1980s, there was no doubt that Dwight Gooden was the most popular starting pitcher on the team.  There was just a different buzz when he was on the mound as opposed to when Ron Darling, Bob Ojeda, or Sid Fernandez took the mound.  The reason was that Gooden had unparalleled and electric stuff.  As a result, it seemed Gooden was always pitching before a sellout crowd at Shea.  It didn’t matter if it was a 10:00 A.M. game on a Monday against the Flushing Little League team, Shea Stadium would be sold out to see him pitch.  Without a doubt, Gooden was a fan favorite.

As we saw with Gooden, attendance is a good measure to determine who the Mets fans favorite pitcher is.  It is a measure which shows who the fans will pay to go see pitch.  So far this season, the Mets have played 46 home games drawing 1,582,503 fans, which averages out to 34,402 fans per game.  On average, Mets fans have paid to see Jacob deGrom over any other Mets pitcher this season:

Average Differential
deGrom 38,107 3,704
Syndergaard 35,582 1,180
Harvey 34,925 523
Colon 33,685 -717
Matz 30,240 -4,162

To be fair, there are a number of factors that drives attendance other than the night’s starting pitcher.  For example, fans are more apt to attend games over the weekend and on holidays (Memorial Day and the Fourth of July).  For the purposes of this analysis, weekend games are classified as Friday through Sunday games.  Over the course of the first 46 home games, the Mets have played 23 weekday games and 23 weekend and holiday games. In the Mets 23 home weekend and holiday games, the Mets have averaged 38,060 fans per game as opposed to 30,745 fans during the Mets 23 weekday games.  Looking at weekend games, deGrom is still the pitcher that Mets fans are more likely to pay to see pitch:

Average Differential
deGrom 41,248 3,188
Syndergaard 38,529 469
Harvey 36,536 -1,524
Colon 36,297 -1,763
Matz 35,979 -2,081

With weekday games, the ones that take a little more effort to attend, we begin to see a shift away from deGrom.  In fact, fans have come out to see Matt Harvey more than any other pitcher on weekday games:

Average Differential
Harvey 32,777 2,032
Syndergaard 32,635 1,890
Colon 31,944 1,199
deGrom 31,825 1,080
Matz 26,414 -4,332

There are other factors to keep into consideration as well.  For example, one driving force behind attendance has been the Mets games against some of the better teams in baseball.  In the Mets 30 home games against teams with a record over .500, the Mets average attendance is 35,415 per game.  As we have already seen in some of the above analyses, more fans come out to see deGrom pitch against the better teams in baseball than any other Mets starter:

Average Differential
deGrom 36,266 852
Harvey 36,086 671
Syndergaard 35,675 260
Colon 35,564 149
Matz 33,707 -1,708

If teams that are over .500 are going to be of interest, it should come as no surprise that the Mets home games agains their 2015 postseason opponents have also driven attendance.  In the Mets nine home games against their postseason rivals, the Mets average attendance has been 39,432.  It should be noted that Harvey has not pitched against any of those opponents, nor will he with his season ending surgery.  Furthermore, Steven Matz only made one start against such an opponent.  With those factors in place, the starting pitcher the Mets fans paid most to see in the rematch games was Bartolo Colon:

Average Differential
Colon 41,187 1,755
Matz 40,122 690
deGrom 38,828 -604
Syndergaard 37,850 -1,582

Astoundingly, the Mets attendance against their NL East opponents has been poor.  While the Mets have averaged 34,042 fans per game through the first 46 games of the season, they are only drawing an average of 33,044 fans for NL East opponents.  Much of that is attributable to how bad the Braves and Phillies are.  The Marlins aren’t exactly driving fans to the park either despite the Mets being in a Wild Card race with them.  With that in mind, the fans want to see deGrom pitch against NL East opponents more than any other pitcher:

Average Differential
deGrom 37,289 4,244
Harvey 34,931 1,887
Syndergaard 33,551 507
Matz 30,698 -2,346
Colon 30,653 -2,391

Looking at the attendance figures, the Mets have had 16 such games, and they are only drawing 32,504 fans per game.  With respect to the other subset of games, this is the group the fans want to see the least.  Generally speaking, there needs to be an incentive for the fans to go to the ballpark.  Looking at the attendance figures more in depth, deGrom taking the mound seems to be an incentive for the fans to go out and see the Mets play a bad baseball team:

Average Differential
deGrom 41,788 9,284
Syndergaard 35,212 2,708
Harvey 34,055 1,551
Colon 29,301 -3,203
Matz 25,039 -7,465

Weighing each of these factors, the attendance figures suggest that Jacob deGrom is the Mets fans favorite starting pitcher with Noah Syndergaard not too far behind. These numbers shouldn’t be that surprising as deGrom and Syndergaard have been the Mets two best pitchers all year, and will likely be the starters for Game One and Game Two of this year’s NLDS.

 

 

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DAYMAN!

Little known fact after Jacob deGrom is he is also apparently also a master of karate:

Coming into Sunday’s game against the Phillies, deGrom was 14-3 with a 1.72 ERA and a 0.960 WHIP in day games. He limits batters to a .192/.261/.272 batting line. Certainly, deGrom has been the champion of the sun.  

Sunday, it was more of the same as he pitched the first complete game shutout of his career in a Mets 5-0 win. Fittingly, the Dayman did it in Flipadelphia. The only Phillie to get a hit was the opposing pitcher Zach Eflin. He finished the game strong striking out the last batter of the game Odubel Herrera. 

Overall, deGrom went the distance allowing just that third inning hit while walking one and striking out nine.  He only needed 105 pitches meaning he was ever so close to accomplishing a Maddux, which is complete game shutout on less than 100 pitches (dubbed for Hall of Famer Greg Maddux).

Now, deGrom is 15-3 with a 1.63 ERA and a 0.923 WHIP in day games. He has defeated the Nightman, and he is a master of karate. 

Friendship for everyone. 

Game Notes: deGrom’s would also go 1-3 at the plate scoring on a Jose Reyes double. Asdrubal Cabrera continued his July tear hitting a two run homer. The other runs came off a Juan Lagares RBI triple, and a Curtis Granderson solo home run. 

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First Half Mets Minor League Offensive Leaders

Currently, MLB and many of their full season affiliates are either at or have already had their All Star Break. At each and every level, the Mets had a minor league hitter named to their level’s All-Star Game. Listed below is a synopsis of the Mets’ organizations leaders at the break:

Class A – Columbia Fireflies

Class A Advanced – St. Lucie Mets

AA – Binghamton Mets

AAA – Las Vegas 51s

Organizational Leaders

  • AVG: T.J. Rivera LV (.348)
  • OBP: Vinny Siena COL & STL (.413)
  • SLG: Travis Taijeron LV (.953)
  • OPS: Travis Taijeron LV (.953)
  • R: Travis Taijeron (61)
  • H: Amed Rosario STL & BNG (107)
  • 2B: Travis Taijeron LV (35)
  • 3B: Amed Rosario STL & BNG (11)
  • HR: Johnny Monell LV (14)
  • RBI: Travis Taijeron LV (69)
  • SB: Champ Stuart STL & BNG (26)

* stats are updated through July 13, 2016

Editor’s Note: this was first published on metsminors.net

 

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First Half Mets Minor League Pitching Leaders

Currently, MLB and many of their full season affiliates are at the All Star Break. At each and every level, the Mets had a minor league pitcher named to their level’s All-Star Game. Listed below is a synopsis of the Mets’ organizations leaders at the break:

Class A Full Season – Columbia Fireflies

Class A Advanced – St. Lucie Mets

Double-A – Binghamton Mets

Triple-A – Las Vegas 51s

  • Wins: Sean Gilmartin, Gabriel Ynoa (9)
  • Saves: Paul Sewald (9)
  • Strikeouts: Sean Gilmartin (77)
  • ERA: Gabriel Ynoa (4.19)
  • WHIP: Sean Gilmartin (1.32)
  • Games: Chasen Bradford, Josh Smoker (38)
  • Starts: Gabriel Ynoa (18 – League Leader)
  • Innings: Gabriel Ynoa (109.2)
  • Holds: Josh Smoker (9)
  • All-Stars: Gabriel Ynoa
  • Promotions: Seth Lugo

Organizational Leaders

  • Wins: P.J. Conlon COL & STL (10)
  • Saves: Alex Palsha COL (14)
  • Strikeouts: Joe Shaw COL, Tyler Pill BNG (88)
  • ERA: P.J. Conlon COL & STL (1.97)
  • WHIP: P.J. Conlon COL & STL (1.03)
  • Games: Chasen Bradford LV, Josh Smoker LV (38)
  • Starts – Gabriel Ynoa LV (18)
  • Innings – Gabriel Ynoa (109.2)
  • Holds – Josh Smoker LV (9)

* stats are updated through July 13, 2016

Editor’s Note: this was first published on metsminors.net

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Jon Niese Could Be a Valuable Reliever

Last year, when it was apparent he was not going to be a part of the postseason rotation, Jon Niese volunteered to go to the bullpen. As it turned out, he became a valuable part of the Mets postseason bullpen. 

In five of Niese’s six postseason appearances, he did not permit a run. He was nearly perfect over 4.1 innings allowing just two hits while striking out five batters. He got a big strikeout of Anthony Rizzo in Game Two of the NLCS:

He kept the Mets alive in Game One of the World Series with two huge scoreless innings in the 10th and 11th innings. He bailed Steven Matz out of a tight sixth inning while seemingly being the only Mets pitcher to get Eric Hosmer out in a big spot. In a do-or-die Game Five, he pitched a scoreless tenth. Overall, Niese was terrific in big spots, and he came through when the Mets needed him most. It really was shocking given his well-earned reputation as a head case. 

In the offseason, the Mets traded him for Neil Walker, and even under the tutelage of arguably the best pitching coach in the game, Niese has been terrible going 7-6 with a 5.13 ERA, 1.574 WHIP, 80 ERA+, and a 5.49 FIP. These are easily the worst stats of his career, and as a result, Niese finds himself back in the bullpen. 

Somewhat surprisingly, the Mets are interested in a reunion with Niese. They’re possibly interested with Logan Verrett failing to recapture the magic he had as a spot starter last year. The Mets have to at least contemplate Niese as Sean Gilmartin and Gabriel Ynoa have pitched poorly over the past few months. Furthermore, the Mets do not seem inclined to stretch out Seth Lugo and give him a chance to start. 

Certainly, you can understand the Mets interest in Niese. However, it is still hard to imagine Niese is a better option for the rotation than the Mets internal candidates. It may be one of the reasons why the Mets are more interested in improving the bullpen than by adding Niese to the rotation. Given his performance last postseason, perhaps Niese could be the bullpen answer. 

There is some evidence from this season that Niese could be a useful bullpen piece.  In his first two innings of work, he has a 2.50 ERA. In his first inning of work, batters are hitting .234/.269/.375. In his second inning of work, batters are hitting .217/.308/.406. With runners in scoring position batters are hitting .250/.332/.352. When there are two outs and runners in scoring position, batters are hitting .093/.170/.140. 

Looking at these numbers, it’s fair to conclude that Niese has started games well but has fallen apart from the third inning on. These numbers should improve with Niese being reunited with Dan Warthen and with him maxing out for an inning or two. If Niese were to move to the bullpen, he could have a career renaissance similar to Oliver Perez, who was another unpopular Mets lefty starter who faltered. 

With that in mind, Niese could be the exact pitcher the Mets are looking to add. Once he’s in the fold, the Mets can then figure out what to do for the last spot in the rotation. 

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Mets May Be Intersted in Jon Niese

Last year, the Mets had released Kirk Nieuwenhuis after he had hit .079/.125/.132 with no homers and two RBI in 27 games. Nieuwenhuis would go to the Angels where he would be similarly ineffective causing them to release him. The Mets then jumped on the chance to bring him back due to injuries and the ineffective play of players like Darrell Ceciliani.

Now, a year later the Mets are facing a similar situation with Jon Niese. According to Marc Carig of Newsday, the Mets are internally debating whether or not the Mets should reunite with Niese. 

This move speaks more about the Mets options than Niese’s performance as Niese is 7-6 with a 5.13 ERA, 1.574 WHIP, 80 ERA+, and a 5.49 FIP. He’s performed so poorly he recently lost his spot in the rotation and caused his General Manager Neil Huntington to quip, “In hindsight, maybe two fringe prospects [in exchange for Neil Walker] and trying to figure out how to reallocate the money might have been a better return.”  Even with all this is mind, the Mets are still deliberating over whether they should bring back Niese to take Matt Harvey‘s spot in the rotation.  

He is a consideration as Logan Verrett is 1-4 with a 5.64 ERA and a 1.649 WHIP as a starter this year. Sean Gilmartin has had a 6.17 ERA and a 1.447 WHIP in his last 10 starts with one relief appearance. Gabriel Ynoa has a 6.65 ERA and a 1.630 WHIP in his last eight starts. 

As for now, the Mets plan on starting Verrett tonight against the Phillies. Furthermore, the team intends to prioritize pursuing a right-handed reliever who can pitch the seventh inning before turning their sights onto Niese. 

Editor’s Note: this was first published on metsmerizedonline.com

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Granderson Should Be Hitting Leadoff

Except for the Jerry Manuel experiment in 2010, Jose Reyes has spent the vast majority of his career as a leadoff hitter.  Throughout his career, he’s been the prototypical leadoff hitter.  He was the guy that got on base and would wreck havoc on the basepaths.  He’d score from first on a double.  He’d steal second and score from second on a single.  He’d steal third and he would either score on a sacrifice fly or get a pitcher to balk him home.  This is why Reyes has lead off his entire career, and this is why Terry Collins made him the leadoff hitter when Reyes played his first game with the Mets on July 5th.

However, Reyes isn’t the same player anymore.  He’s gone from a .341 OBP and averaging 37 stolen bases a year with the Mets to a player with a .334 OBP who averages 27 stolen bases a year.  Last year, he had a .310 OBP and 24 stolen bases while playing in two of the best hitter’s parks in all of baseball.  Simply put, Reyes is no longer the same player, which means he shouldn’t be treated as such.  It might be time for him to be moved out of the leadoff spot.

The leadoff spot should return to Curtis Granderson.  The same Curtis Granderson who was the leadoff hitter that went to the World Series last year.  The same leadoff hitter that needed just a little over one season to match Reyes’ team record for home runs leading off a game.  This is the same Granderson who has a higher career OBP than Reyes and who had a .364 OBP for the Mets last year.  After a tough May, Granderson has returned to that form with him hitting .276/.386/.496 with six homers and 11 RBI.

Overall, Granderson is a better hitter than Reyes is right now.  He’s a better hitter than what Reyes has been the past few seasons.  The Mets were at their most successful with Granderson leading off.  It’s time to restore him to to leadoff spot.

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Asdrubal Cabrera Is a Second Half Player

Coming into the season, the Mets wanted to upgrade at shortstop.  They wanted a player who had more range and power than what Ruben Tejada provided the Mets.  They wanted a player who was a steadier fielder who got on base more frequently than Wilmer Flores.  With that in mind, as free agency opened, the Mets jumped at the chance to add Asdrubal Cabrera.  During the month of April, Cabrera seemed to be exactly the type of player the Mets both wanted and needed to take them to the next level.  Cabrera was playing steady, if not spectacular defense, while hitting .300/.364/.400 with one homer and seven RBI.  He was a big reason why the Mets found themselves eight games over .500 and only a half-game back in the NL East at the close of April.

Then as the calendar turned to May, Cabrera turned into Flores.  Since May 1st, Cabrera has hit .249/.305/.435 with 11 homers.  Yes, his power numbers went up, but he’s also getting on base less frequently.  In addition, he seemingly good defense took a step back.  So far this season, Cabrera has a -6 DRS and a -3.3 UZR.  These numbers do not seem like a mirage either as Cabrera has averaged a -10 DRS and a -8.5 UZR over the past three seasons.  As Cabrera has struggled, so have the Mets.  Since May 1st, the Mets have been one game under .500 and they have fallen to six games behind the Nationals in the division.

Yes, there have been a number of issues that have led to this.  The Mets have been beset with injuries with Lucas Duda‘s back and David Wright‘s neck.  Cabrera was no stranger to injury.  As Terry Collins‘ brings up from time to time in his postgame press conferences, Cabrera has been dealing with a knee injury all season.  With that in mind, the All Star Break should prove beneficial to Cabrera to let him rest that knee and come out better in the second half.  And he will as Cabrera has been a second half player most of his career.  In fact, Cabrera has a better batting average, on base percentage, slugging, and OPS+ in the second half of the season.

This was mostly fueled by the incredible second half he had for the Tampa Bay Rays last year.  In the second half, Cabrera hit .328/.372/.544 with 10 homers and 36 RBI.  This included a three game set against the Mets in August of last year that saw him go 4-11 with a walk, a run, a double, and a stolen base in games started by Jacob deGrom, Bartolo Colon, and Noah Syndergaard.  That was following a stretch that saw Cabrera hit .232/.287/.387 with five homers and 12 RBI for May and June.  July rolled in with the All Star Break, and as mentioned above, Cabrera was a different player.  We’re seeing it again this year.

Since July 1st, Cabrera has hit .290/.333/.667 with four homers and five RBI.  Amazingly, Cabera only has a .217 BABIP for the month suggesting that Cabrera could possibly improve upon these already good July numbers.  If that is truly the case, we should see Cabrera repeat the outstanding second half he put together for the Rays last year.  If Cabrera is capable of doing that, the Mets will have a much improved lineup that should see them compete not just for the Wild Card but also for the division.

We have already seen what Cabrera is capable of doing and how that can help the Mets.  If he gets back to being that player, there is no stopping either him or the Mets.

Editor’s Note: this was also published on metsmerizedonline.com

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