Musings
This year has mostly been a struggle for Michael Conforto. He has dealt with a wrist injury and declining production. His manager, Terry Collins, has refused to play him against lefties and against tough right-handers like Jose Fernandez and Justin Verlander. He was sent down to the minors for a long stint to rediscover his stroke. Upon being recalled, he was expected to learn both center and right field on the fly.
Through it all, Conforto has just hit .224/301/.457 with 11 homers and 33 RBI in 81 games. Based upon these numbers, Conforto has not taken the next step like everyone thought he was going to do this year. He certainly didn’t build upon his great April. It doesn’t matter. The Mets should play him everyday anyway.
The fact of the matter is Conforto has the highest upside out of anyone currently available to play for the Mets. On a team full of left-hand hitting corner outfielders, his upside is the highest. Consider this:
- Jay Bruce is having a career best year that has seen him hit .259/.311/.551.
- Curtis Granderson is 35 years old, and he is hitting .233/.328/.437.
- Alejandro De Aza has had to play out of his mind since July 1st to bring his season slash line to .201/.294/.306.
- Brandon Nimmo is hitting .239/.297/.288 in 20 games.
Conforto is much more capable than any of those numbers. Just this April, we saw him hit .365/.442/.676. Since he was recalled from AAA, we have seen him try to get back to hitting the ball to the opposite field, and as a result, he hit an opposite field home run in Comerica Park.
Playing Conforto everyday is not without its risks. He is only hitting .233/.327/.395 in his 16 games and 11 starts since being recalled from AAA. He is still only hitting .133/.185/.150 with one extra base hit in 60 career at bats against left-handed pitching. He is still a developing player.
With all that said, no one has his upside. Conforto is the only Met who is truly capable to replacing Yoenis Cespedes‘ bat while Cespedes is on the disabled list. With that in mind, it is worth the risk to play Conforto everyday. At this point, the Mets need all the offensive help they can get, and Conforto is the best equipped to do that. It’s why he was drafted, and it is why the Mets called him up last year despite his never having played above AA.
Overall, if the Mets are going to go anywhere, they need more offense. Moreover, they need Conforto to start hitting like he is capable of hitting. The only way either is going to happen is for Conforto to play everyday.
Normally, you don’t fire someone until you have a viable replacement in place. It’s not the prudent course of action, and ultimately, you can make matters worse by acting off raw emotion to quickly fire someone. However, it’s time. The Mets need to move on from Terry Collins despite the lack of an obvious suitable replacement.
This isn’t said lightly. It was his ability to manage the clubhouse that kept the team together last summer until the Mets could make the trades to add Kelly Johnson, Juan Uribe, and Yoenis Cespedes. Despite your impressions of his in-game management, Collins was the manager of a team that went to the World Series last year.
More than that, Collins appears to be a good man. He has written notes to Mets fans who are mourning the loss of a loved one. He stopped Spring Training practice so a young heart transplant survivor could meet his idols. Make no mistake, when you lose a human being of the caliber Collins is, your entire organization is worse off for it.
And yet, there comes a time when being a good person and past results need to be pushed aside. You need to focus on the job he’s doing and how he’s hurting the team.
This isn’t just about the Mets disappointing season thus far. You cannot pin a player underperforming on the manager alone even if Michael Conforto has regressed as the season progressed. Players certainly have to share in their responsibility as well. Furthermore, injuries have certainly played a part in this, and injuries cannot always be blamed on the manager.
It’s also not about Collins in-game management, which can be head-scratching at times. There are many factors at play to which we are not always privy. A player may feel under the weather or not ready to play in a game. Also, even if it may seem strange to people, a manager should be allowed to draw from 48 years of baseball experience to play a hunch every so often.
No, the reason why Collins needs to go is his decision making process and how it has hurt the team.
In April, there was his ill-advised decision to pitch Jim Henderson the day after he threw a career high 34 pitches. It was even worse when you consider Henderson is pitching in his first full season after having had his second shoulder surgery. Eventually, Henderson landed on the disabled list due to a shoulder impingement. Collins’ excuse for pitching Henderson was Henderson telling him before the game that “he felt great.”
That signals that what was Collins’ greatest strength is also his biggest weakness. He puts too much trust in his players leading Collins to sometimes play players when they shouldn’t be playing.
It was the big issue with Game 5 of the World Series. He let Matt Harvey talk his way back into the ninth inning despite Collins belief that the Mets should go to Jeurys Familia in that spot. That moment wasn’t about whether anyone thought it was the right move to let Harvey stay in the game. It was about Collins thinking it wasn’t he right move and his letting the player control the situtation.
Speaking of Familia, Collins recently overworked him as well. Over a six day stretch from July 22nd to July 27th, Familia had worked in four games throwing 76 pitches. He was tiring, and in his last appearance, Familia finally blew his first save. The following game the Mets got seven innings from Jacob deGrom, and the rest of the bullpen was fairly rested and ready to go. Instead, Collins went back to Familia who would blow his second save in a row. Collins’ excuse? He was going to sit Familia until Familia approached him pre-game and told him he was ready, willing, and able to pitch.
With Henderson, Harvey, and Familia, it appears that Collins is losing control to the players. That seemed all the more apparent during the Cespedes golfing drama. The Mets star player and key to their entire lineup had been hobbled for over a month due to a quad injury, and yet he continued to golf everyday. That was news to Collins who said, “I didn’t know he played golf until you guys brought it up. Had it been bothering him then, he would’ve said something about it, but not a word.” (Ryan Hatch, NJ.com).
It is not fair to blame Collins for Cespedes’ injury. It also isn’t fair to blame Collins for Cespedes playing golf. However, your star player is injured, and his injury is severely hampering your team. Doesn’t a manager have an obligation to speak with Cespedes knowing he is an avid golfer that played golf throughout the postseason last year despite having a shoulder injury?
On it’s own the Cespedes golf situation would be overblown as well as the aforementioned pitching decisions. If that was the only issue, you could argue Collins should be permitted to stay on as manager. However, his decision making this past week was the straw that broke the camel’s back.
On August 5th, the Mets lost a game 4-3. The fourth and decisive run was set-up by a J.D. Martinez double. Upon replay, it appeared that Matt Reynolds had held the tag on Martinez appeared to came off the bag. Reynolds looked into the dugout, but there would be no challenge. Now, that’s not necessarily Collins’ fault as he is relying upon the advise of the replay adviser. However, it was important to denote this when setting the stage for what happened the following night.
The Mets trailed the Tigers 7-6 in the top of the ninth. Jay Bruce started a two out rally in the top of of the ninth, and he would try to score from second off a Travis d’Arnaud single. Martinez would throw him out at the plate, and the Mets just walked off the field without challenging the play to see if there was a missed tag or if Jarrod Saltalamacchia was illegally blocking the plate. Why? As Collins said himself, “Because I didn’t think about it — that’s why. Plain and simple.” (Ken Davidoff, New York Post).
The Mets literally lose the game without that challenge. They lost the night before, in part, because they failed to challenge a play where it appeared Martinez was out at second. Even with all of that, Collins still didn’t at least try to challenge the play to try to get the tying run home.
As if that wasn’t enough, there was the matter of why Brandon Nimmo wasn’t pinch running for Bruce in that spot. Collins didn’t choose Nimmo as a pinch runner because he simply doesn’t know which one of his players is faster:
Collins said he didn't consider Nimmo for Bruce pinch running last night because for all he knows Bruce is faster.
— Mike Puma (@NYPost_Mets) August 7, 2016
When you cede decision making to the players, when you fail to do everything possible to win games, and when you don’t fully know the capabilities of every player on your roster, it is time to go.
Given the Mets injuries to players like Yoenis Cespedes and season ending injuries to Lucas Duda, Matt Harvey, and David Wright, the Mets need all the help they can get to get back to the postseason.
Tony Cingrani and Ross Ohlendorf did the Mets no favors on Monday blowing a 4-0 lead culminating with a Yadier Molina walk-off hit by pitch.
The Cardinals win puts them 1.5 games up (one in the loss column) over the idle Mets.
At least the Giants took care of business against the Marlins. In an epic 14 inning game, Brandon Crawford knocked in the winning run in the top of the 14th to give the Giants an 8-7 lead. Crawford was an insane 7-8 in the game with a run and two RBI.
The Marlins loss left them in a tie with the Cardinals for the second Wild Card spot meaning they’re a game up over the Mets in the loss column.
The difference between the Mets and the Marlins in the standings continues to be that key Dee Gordon April 12th single following an epic 16 pitch battle against Jim Henderson. Gordon played that game while his appeal for his future PED suspension was pending.
But hey, he won’t impact who wins the World Series as he can’t play in the postseason.
The Mets have not won back-t0-back games since over a month ago. At that time, they have gone from three back in the division and leading the race for the second Wild Card. They have seen Asdrubal Cabrera, Yoenis Cespedes, and Jose Reyes go on the disabled list. Matt Harvey had season ending surgery. The Mets have seen themselves fall to nine back in the division.
Yet, the Mets are still in the thick of the Wild Card race.
After a much needed day off, the Mets begin a six game homestand against two of the worst teams in baseball in the Diamondbacks and the Padres. After that the Mets begin a West Coast trip starting with the Diamondbacks. These are nine extremely winnable games. If the Mets are a playoff team, they will steamroll through the Diamondbacks and the Padres and take possession of the second Wild Card spot.
Even better, they should have some help coming soon. Jim Henderson, Zack Wheeler, and Reyes are on rehab assignments in St. Lucie. Adding these health players along with a Michael Conforto, who hit an opposite field home run yesterday, gives you some optimism in what has mostly been a frustrating season for both him and the team.
All that anger and frustration can go away over the next nine games against two bad baseball teams.
Editor’s Note: this was also published on Mets Merized Online
Normally, you don’t fire someone until you have a viable replacement in place. It’s not the prudent course of action, and ultimately, you can make matters worse by acting off raw emotion to quickly fire someone. However, it’s time. The Mets need to move on from Terry Collins despite the lack of an obvious suitable replacement.
This isn’t said lightly. It was his ability to manage the clubhouse that kept the team together last summer until the Mets could make the trades to add Kelly Johnson, Juan Uribe, and Yoenis Cespedes. Despite your impressions of his in-game management, Collins was the manager of a team that went to the World Series last year.
More than that, Collins appears to be a good man. He has written notes to Mets fans who are mourning the loss of a loved one. He stopped Spring Training practice so a young heart transplant survivor could meet his idols. Make no mistake, when you lose a human being of the caliber Collins is, your entire organization is worse off for it.
And yet, there comes a time when being a good person and past results need to be pushed aside. You need to focus on the job he’s doing and how he’s hurting the team.
This isn’t just about the Mets disappointing season thus far. You cannot pin a player underperforming on the manager alone even if Michael Conforto has regressed as the season progressed. Players certainly have to share in their responsibility as well. Furthermore, injuries have certainly played a part in this, and injuries cannot always be blamed on the manager.
It’s also not about Collins in-game management, which can be head-scratching at times. There are many factors at play to which we are not always privy. A player may feel under the weather or not ready to play in a game. Also, even if it may seem strange to people, a manager should be allowed to draw from 48 years of baseball experience to play a hunch every so often.
No, the reason why Collins needs to go is his decision making process and how it has hurt the team.
In April, there was his ill-advised decision to pitch Jim Henderson the day after he threw a career high 34 pitches. It was even worse when you consider Henderson is pitching in his first full season after having had his second shoulder surgery. Eventually, Henderson landed on the disabled list due to a shoulder impingement. Collins’ excuse for pitching Henderson was Henderson telling him before the game that “he felt great.”
That signals that what was Collins’ greatest strength is also his biggest weakness. He puts too much trust in his players leading Collins to sometimes play players when they shouldn’t be playing.
It was the big issue with Game 5 of the World Series. He let Matt Harvey talk his way back into the ninth inning despite Collins belief that the Mets should go to Jeurys Familia in that spot. That moment wasn’t about whether anyone thought it was the right move to let Harvey stay in the game. It was about Collins thinking it wasn’t he right move and his letting the player control the situtation.
Speaking of Familia, Collins recently overworked him as well. Over a six day stretch from July 22nd to July 27th, Familia had worked in four games throwing 76 pitches. He was tiring, and in his last appearance, Familia finally blew his first save. The following game the Mets got seven innings from Jacob deGrom, and the rest of the bullpen was fairly rested and ready to go. Instead, Collins went back to Familia who would blow his second save in a row. Collins’ excuse? He was going to sit Familia until Familia approached him pre-game and told him he was ready, willing, and able to pitch.
With Henderson, Harvey, and Familia, it appears that Collins is losing control to the players. That seemed all the more apparent during the Cespedes golfing drama. The Mets star player and key to their entire lineup had been hobbled for over a month due to a quad injury, and yet he continued to golf everyday. That was news to Collins who said, “I didn’t know he played golf until you guys brought it up. Had it been bothering him then, he would’ve said something about it, but not a word.” (Ryan Hatch, NJ.com).
It is not fair to blame Collins for Cespedes’ injury. It also isn’t fair to blame Collins for Cespedes playing golf. However, your star player is injured, and his injury is severely hampering your team. Doesn’t a manager have an obligation to speak with Cespedes knowing he is an avid golfer that played golf throughout the postseason last year despite having a shoulder injury?
On it’s own the Cespedes golf situation would be overblown as well as the aforementioned pitching decisions. If that was the only issue, you could argue Collins should be permitted to stay on as manager. However, his decision making this past week was the straw that broke the camel’s back.
On August 5th, the Mets lost a game 4-3. The fourth and decisive run was set-up by a J.D. Martinez double. Upon replay, it appeared that Matt Reynolds had held the tag on Martinez appeared to came off the bag. Reynolds looked into the dugout, but there would be no challenge. Now, that’s not necessarily Collins’ fault as he is relying upon the advise of the replay adviser. However, it was important to denote this when setting the stage for what happened the following night.
The Mets trailed the Tigers 7-6 in the top of the ninth. Jay Bruce started a two out rally in the top of of the ninth, and he would try to score from second off a Travis d’Arnaud single. Martinez would throw him out at the plate, and the Mets just walked off the field without challenging the play to see if there was a missed tag or if Jarrod Saltalamacchia was illegally blocking the plate. Why? As Collins said himself, “Because I didn’t think about it — that’s why. Plain and simple.” (Ken Davidoff, New York Post).
The Mets literally lose the game without that challenge. They lost the night before, in part, because they failed to challenge a play where it appeared Martinez was out at second. Even with all of that, Collins still didn’t at least try to challenge the play to try to get the tying run home.
As if that wasn’t enough, there was the matter of why Brandon Nimmo wasn’t pinch running for Bruce in that spot. Collins didn’t choose Nimmo as a pinch runner because he simply doesn’t know which one of his players is faster:
Collins said he didn't consider Nimmo for Bruce pinch running last night because for all he knows Bruce is faster.
— Mike Puma (@NYPost_Mets) August 7, 2016
When you cede decision making to the players, when you fail to do everything possible to win games, and when you don’t fully know the capabilities of every player on your roster, it is time to go.
With Asdrubal Cabrera and Jose Reyes joining David Wright and Lucas Duda on the disabled list, the Mets needed to go to AAA to find a utility infielder. For some reason or another they chose Ty Kelly.
Kelly has been a nice story this year. He dominated AAA forcing the Mets to finally give him the major league shot the Orioles, Mariners, Blue Jays, and Cardinals declined to give him. He had gone from a career minor leaguer to a player who has finally gotten his shot to be a major leaguer at 27 years old. On June 8th, he even hit his first career home run off future Pirates ace James Taillon. Kelly’s story has been one of perseverance and one of triump. However, that terrific story does not make Kelly a major leaguer.
In 14 games, Kelly was over-matched hitting .148/.207/.259 with that one home run being his only extra base hit. He has showed why four other organizations passed over him time and again. He has shown why the Mets buried him on the depth chart after his 14 game stint. Given his performance, it makes you question why he is back with the Mets,e especially with the team having presumably better options down in the minors.
If you are going to stick with the 40 man roster, Eric Campbell would have been a better choice. He is a career .221/.310/.312 hitter, and he hit .159/.270/.222 this year. He had some flashes this year with a five game stretch that saw him hit .273/.467/.273 while playing well defensively at first and third base. On different occasions over the course of his career, he has come up with key pinch hits. Since his demotion, he has hit .363/.493/.593 in AAA, which shows that he has the ability to get on base, and anyone can hit in the Pacific Coast League. Regardless of your position on Campbell, he is a better player than Kelly.
However, Campbell has been given numerous chances to stick with the Mets, and he still hasn’t. It has gotten to the point that the Mets now favor Kelly over him. The Mets have moved on from him. With that in mind, it might be time to consider someone other than Campbell and Kelly.
Again, the Mets should give T.J. Rivera consideration. He was a Pacific Coast League All STytar, and he is hitting .340/.380/.490 in 90 games. He has more defensive versatility than Kelly and Campbell as he plays all four infield positions, and he can also play left field. He may not be a plus defender at any of those positions, but neither are Kelly or Campbell. He may be a 27 year old rookie, but so was the older Kelly when he was called-up with year. Overall, the only difference between Rivera and Kelly is that Kelly got his shot; a shot in which Kelly has mostly failed.
Admittedly, a pennant race is not the best time to give someone like Rivera a shot to prove he is capable of playing in the majors. Then again, a pennant race is an even worse time to keep sending out a player like Kelly who has shown he struggles at the major league level. If you are going to pass on Campbell, who has shown some ability to play at the major league level, the Mets should have called-up Rivera who provides the team more versatility despite not being a switch hitter like Kelly.
Sooner or later, you’d have to imagine Rivera will get his fairy tale shot like Kelly did. He might even do more with the chance than Kelly has. It would be in the Mets best interests to find out.
Editor’s Note: this was first published on Mets Minors
This wasn’t the Bartman Play. Unlike Moises Alou, Joey Votto actually had an opportunity to make the play:
Votto did come across as a bit of a jerk with the disgust he showed. But, he has a point. The guy was a Reds fan. He was the same guy that would have groaned or booed if the ball was a foot in the other direction, and Votto failed to make the play.
Most of the time when fans are that close, they lose sight of who they are rooting for, and they do all they can to catch the foul ball. Like it or not, sitting that close means you have to pay attention to when your team has an opportunity to make the play. If you don’t care and want the ball anyway, that’s your prerogative, but you do lose the right to boo when a player doesn’t make the play.
As an epilogue, for those who have a problem with Votto, he did apologize to the fan and give him a signed ball:
This is awesome. Joey Votto signs a ball with an apology for a fan who he interacted with on a foul ball. #MLBonFS1 pic.twitter.com/h7glbaTRfg
— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) August 3, 2016
After being released by the Atlanta Braves this year and having spent almost a month in the Arizona Diamondbacks minor league system, Alexi Ogando has exercised an opt out clause in his contract making him a free agent. With the Mets whiffing on adding a reliever at the deadline, unless of course you count Jon Niese, the Mets should look to add Ogando.
From 2010 – 2013, Ogando was a weapon for the Rangers with his ability to pitch effectively as a starter and out of the bullpen. In that stretch, he was 26-13 in 156 appearances and 48 starts with a 3.12 ERA and a 1.136 WHIP. In the postseason, he is 2-0 with a 2.37 ERA. Unfortunately, Ogando is not that pitcher anymore. If he was, he wouldn’t be available.
During the 2013 season, he would have a shoulder injury, and he wouldn’t be the same pitcher. Since that time, he has made 127 appearances over the last two and a half seasons going 7-5 with a 4.56 ERA and a 1.553 WHIP. The main issue for Ogando has been control. During his heyday with the Rangers, he was only walking 2.8 batters per nine innings. Prior to his release with from the Braves, he was walking 6.5 batters per nine leading to an ugly 1.719 WHIP and his eventual release. It was a long fall from the pitcher who was once an All Star on a team that twice came ever so close to winning a World Series.
However, Ogando is worth a risk. He can still strike people out striking out 8.2 batters per nine innings. He still has electric stuff throwing a 95 MPH fastball and an 85 MPH slider. He is exactly the type of pitcher who Dan Warthen has had success helping over the course of his tenure as the Mets pitching coach. Maybe with a couple of adjustments, Ogando can get back to being the pitcher he once was with the Rangers.
Fact is he has more upside than Erik Goeddel and his 3.66 ERA, Josh Edgin and his reduced velocity, and Seth Lugo who struggled in his last few appearances before being sent back down to the minors. None of them has his velocity or strikeout ability. They also don’t have his postseason success. With all of that in mind, Ogando is certainly worth a flier. The Mets should act quickly and get him signed to a minor league deal.
At the end of the day, he could be the unlikely difference maker in the pen much like Addison Reed was for the Mets last season.
One of the most exciting things about the 2016 season was supposed to be seeing Noah Syndergaard take the next step towards becoming an ace. In his first start, he certainly didn’t disappoint averaging 99 MPH on his fastball and getting his slider over 95 MPH. From the very beginning, Syndergaard established that he was going to be a dominating and intimidating presence.
And that’s just what he was. In his first 15 starts, Syndergaard was averaging 99 MPH on his fastball and 92 MPH on his slider. He was striking out 10.9 batters per nine innings, and opponents were only able to hit .231/.257/.325 off of him. During this impressive stretch to begin the season, Syndergaard emerged as the staff’s ace with an 8-2 record, a 2.08 ERA, and a 0.989 WHIP. He was not only in the conversation with pitchers like Clayton Kershaw and Jake Arrieta as candidates to start the All Star Game, but also as early season candidates to win the Cy Young Award.
On June 27th, disaster seemingly struck. He would only last three innings allowing seven hits, five runs, five earned, and three walks with only five strikeouts. There was something clearly wrong with him, and it was discovered after the game, Syndergaard had bone chips in his elbow.
Since the bone spurs were discovered, Syndergaard’s velocity has dropped. He has been averaging “only” 98 MPH on his fastball and 91 MPH on his slider. In his subsequent July 8th start, . After that start, it was discovered Syndergaard was dealing with a dead arm. In his last inning of work, his fastball, not his changeup, his fastball would hit 91 MPH. On the day, he would only last 4.2 innings allowing four hits, three runs, three earned, and no walks with four strikeouts. Between the bone chips and the dead arm, Syndergaard would have to miss the All Star Game. He would also miss out on being the same dominant pitcher he was to start the season.
Overall, each and every single one of his pitches have been less effective, and he has had a more difficult time putting people away. From June 27th on, batters are hitting .299/.369/.417 off of him. During this six start stretch, he has gone 1-3 with a 3.62 ERA and a 1.577 WHIP. A large part of all of this is he is having difficulty locating his pitches. Keep in mind that in his first 15 starts, he walked a total of 12 batters over 91.0 innings. In his most recent six start clip, he has walked 13 batters over 32.1 innings. Jacob deGrom has eclipsed him to reclaim his position as the Mets ace.
The Mets are now in the dog days of August, and they are still in the heat of the Wild Card race. With all the injuries the team has sustained, they need all of their healthy players to perform at the highest possible level they can in order to make the postseason. However, given the dead arm and the bone chips, it is questionable if Syndergaard can return back to form and lead the Mets back to the postseason.
Unlike last season, the Mets were proactive in replacing an injured player on their roster when the obtained James Loney from the San Diego Padres to replace Lucas Duda who was slated to be on the disabled list for a long time with a broken back.
It was a good move as Loney was not only cheap, he was immediately available. He was certainly better than what the Mets internal options of Eric Campbell and Ty Kelly.
Coming into the season, Loney was a .285/.338/.411 hitter who averaged 10 homers and 64 RBI in a season. His OPS+ was 105 meaning he was roughly a league average hitter. In his 55 games with the Mets, Loney has been a slightly better version of himself hitting .289/.339/.443 with six homers and 23 RBI. His OPS+ is 108, which is what Mo Vaughn‘s OPS+ was as a Met. Long story short, Loney is the perfect stopgap, but he is not a difference maker. The problem is he was taking over for a difference maker in the lineup.
Since Duda became the Mets everyday first baseman, he has hit .249/.350/.483 while averaging 28 homers and 82 RBI. His OPS+ over that stretch is 133 meaning he is batting at an All Star caliber level, and he is a difference maker at the plate. To put it into context, David Wright‘s career OPS+ is 133.
Essentially, the Mets have gone from a David Wright level of production at first base back to the days of Mo Vaughn. This drop in production goes a long way to explain why the Mets offense has been struggling since Duda has gone down with the broken back.
With the grim prognosis for Duda this season, and with the trade deadline having gone by, the Mets never made the necessary upgrade at first base. If the Mets were to shift Jay Bruce (128 OPS+ this season) or Michael Conforto to first base (129 OPS+ last year), they would go a long way to replacing that production. It is certainly worth a shot. The time for stopgaps is over. The Mets now need to find a real replacement for Duda’s offense. That isn’t Loney. Hopefully, it could be Bruce or Conforto.