Musings
Last night might’ve been the breaking point for Travis d’Arnaud. The Mets had a runner in scoring position with two outs in the bottom of the eighth as the Mets trailed the Braves 5-4. In what was his biggest at bat of the season, d’Arnaud weakly grounded out to shortstop to end the inning and the rally. This could have been the culmination in what has been a lost season for d’Arnaud.
After hitting .268/.340/.485 with 12 homers and 41 RBI last year, this was supposed to be the year d’Arnaud took off. It hasn’t happened. Whether it was losing catching and bench coach Bob Geren to the Dodgers, his rotator cuff injury, his irregular playing time, or just bad mechanics at the plate, this hasn’t been his year. He hasn’t been hitting for power. Overall, he is hitting .246/.300/.321 with only four homers and 14 RBI. In fact, d’Arnaud hasn’t had an RBI since August 26th. He hasn’t homered since August 2nd. In 11 games this month, he is hitting .200/.282/.200 with no extra base hits or RBI. At this point, with the Wild Card on the line, the Mets can ill afford to play him.
The question then become is not d’Arnaud, then who? People will mostly point to Rene Rivera.
Fact is, if the Mets are dissatisfied with d’Arnaud, they shouldn’t want Rivera either. Like d’Arnaud, Rivera has also played 11 games in September. In those games, he is hitting .174/.269/.174. Similarly, he has no extra base hits or RBI. Fact is, he’s been even more of a blackhole offensively than d’Arnaud. That should be no surprise given the fact that he’s a career .213/.263/.332 hitter. If you want Rivera to continue to be Noah Syndergaard‘s personal catcher, that’s one thing. However, Rivera cannot play everyday with those offensive numbers.
That leaves the Mets with only one other option – Kevin Plawecki.
From an offensive standpoint, there are many negative things you can say about Plawecki. Before being sent down to AAA, he was hitting .194/.301/.258 with five doubles, one homer, and 10 RBI. He is hitting .231 with runners in scoring position and .212 with men on base. In his entire major league career, he is a .208/.285/.281 hitter with four homers and 31 RBI. He’s been a dead pull hitter that hits for no power. Those are the numbers that got him sent down to AAA.
However, in AAA, he seemed to regain some of the promise he had as a good offensive catcher. In 55 AAA games, Plawecki hit .300/.384/.484 with 11 doubles, eight homers, and 40 RBI. Given the fact that the Pacific Coast League is a hitter’s league, these numers are not outstanding. However, they are a step in the right direction. Heading in the right direction is a lot more than you can say for Plawecki than you can for d’Arnaud and Rivera.
In his time with the Mets, one thing we have seen with Plawecki is he is a good defensive catcher and pitch framer. With his time in AAA, he has also had the opportunity to catch Seth Lugo, Robert Gsellman, and Josh Smoker this year. With that in mind, he is already up to speed on what they throw and how they get batters out. This means the only real issue with Plawecki is whether he will hit like the Mets once thought he would.
Even if Plawecki hits at the same .208 clip he has in his entire major league career, he will be a better offensive option than d’Arnaud and Rivera have been this month. With that in mind, there is really no downside to giving Plawecki another shot.
No matter how you look at it, the Jay Bruce acquisition has been a disaster for the Mets. In 40 games, Bruce has hit .176/.255/.289 with only four doubles, four homers, and 11 RBI. Bruce has gone from the major league leader in RBI to tied for 30th in the majors and 10th in the National League. He went from hitting .360 with runners in scoring position to .172 with the Mets.
Yesterday was rock bottom for him. He got mixed up with Curtis Granderson on a catchable flyball that lead to a Matt Kemp RBI single instead of a an out with Bruce having a chance to throw the runner out at home. At the plate, Bruce was 0-3. Worse yet, when the Mets were rallying to try the game, Terry Collins pinch hit Eric Campbell for him when the Braves brought in the lefty Ian Kroll to face him. Bruce was brought to the Mets just for these RBI situations. However, it has now gotten to the point that no one trusts him in those spots.
Bruce’s struggles have led some to suggest the Mets should decline Bruce’s $13 million option and give him his $1 million buy out. If the Mets were to do that, it would be a very poor decision.
Over his career, Bruce is a .247/.317/.465 hitter who averages 26 homers and 81 RBI. With Bruce turning 30 years old next year, there is every reason to believe Bruce’s struggles with the Mets are the result of a player struggling when joining a new team more than it is a Jason Bay falling apart when signing the Mets and playing his games under the old outfield configurations of Citi Field. So yes, there is reason to believe Bruce will return to form next season whether or not he is wearing a Mets uniform.
Admittedly, the Mets are going to have a glut of outfielders next year. Curtis Granderson is under contract for another year. The Mets figure to give Michael Conforto an everyday job next year. Juan Lagares should be healthy and could form a center field platoon with Brandon Nimmo. Furthermore, Justin Ruggiano, who mashed lefties in the short time he was with the Mets, is arbitration eligible. In addition to that, the Mets should do all they can to bring back Yoenis Cespedes in the even he opts out of his contract. Looking over this list, it’s hard to find a spot for Bruce in the Mets outfield.
The Mets could shift Bruce to first base. However, Lucas Duda, who has been a much better offensive player than Bruce, is still under team control. Additionally, with the overcrowded outfield, it is possible the Mets will seek to move Conforto to first base as has been recommended by Keith Hernandez. Overall, no matter where you look, there may not be room for Bruce. With that in mind, why pick up his option?
The reason is Bruce is an asset in what is going to be a weak free agent class. After Cespedes, the best free agent outfielders will be Ian Desmond, Mark Trumbo, and Jose Bautista. Each of these free agents have their own issues.
Desmond was a surprising All Star outfielder after struggling last year with the Nationals. However, overlooking his stats, Desmond has a number of issues. First, he is hitting .239/.287/.362 in the second half. Second, he’s showing himself to be a platoon bat hitting .272/.329/.442 against righties and .338/.373/.507 against lefties. Lastly, Desmond appears to be a product of Globe Life Park hitting .336/.374/.516 at home and .244/.309/.405 on the road.
Trumbo is essentially Bruce with vastly inferior defense. He also has the same issues as Desmond. He’s hitting .188/.266/.431 in the second half. He’s hitting .183/.232/.415 against lefties. He’s also hitting .257/.337/.552 at Camden Yards and .242/.282/.498 on the road.
Bautista is a 35 year old outfielder who has taken a step back this season. Over his last six seasons with the Blue Jays, he played at a superstar level hitting .268/.390/.555 while averaging 38 homers and 97 RBI. This year he is only hitting .258/.359/.433 with only 18 homers and 59 RBI.
Another team could look at these options and determine they would rather obtain Bruce who should have similar production at a reasonable $13 million price tag. Teams may also prefer to keep their first round pick rather than give it up for Desmond, Trumbo, or Bautista. Additionally, if Bruce bounces back from his struggles with the Mets, the acquiring team could make him a qualifying offer allowing them to obtain a compensatory first round pick in the event Bruce leaves them next offseason.
There’s the other issue. Cespedes is far from a lock to return. In that scenario, the Mets may feel compelled to find a player who can put up the power numbers Cespedes does. Like it or not, the Mets only real opportunity to replace Cespedes’ bat in the lineup will be a Bruce caliber bat. With Bruce most likely being the cheapest option as well as the option that doesn’t require the Mets to forfeit a first round pick, he is probably the Mets best Cespedes replacement (NOTE: no one can truly replace Cespedes).
So yes, Bruce has been a terrible with the Mets. However, that shouldn’t prevent the Mets from picking up his option as he is going to have value for someone next year. Just cross your fingers that team won’t be the Mets.
The strange thing about this part of the season is the team has to do everything they can do to win games in order to get their team into the postseason. However, at the same time, the team is assessing players to find out who could be valuable pieces on the postseason roster. Accordingly, the manager has to balance finding out something about a player in a pressure situation with making sure the player doesn’t fail and blow the game.
This year Josh Smoker is the embodiment of that conundrum.
After Josh Edgin struggled, the Mets decided to go call-up Smoker and give him his shot to pitch out of the bullpen. Smoker earned the shot as he had a 1.04 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP in his 14 appearances after the All Star Game. He was also striking out 11.4 batters per nine innings during that stretch. Additionally, he had the stuff to pitch in the majors. According to Brooks Baseball, Smoker throws over 95 MPH with a slider and split that generates a lot of swings and misses.
Still, relying on Smoker was far from a given. He still had a 4.11 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP in AAA. It wasn’t just the typical Pacific Coast League inflation. In his minor league career, Smoker had a 4.58 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP. Again, while his stuff translated to the majors, it did not translate statistically. Overall, while there was promise, Smoker was far from a given.
That’s what makes Smoker’s current run with the Mets all the more impressive.
In 15 appearances with the Mets, Smoker has a 4.38 ERA and a 1.135 WHIP while striking out an eye-popping 15.3 batters per nine innings. As it stands, he has reverse splits with him faring better against right-handed betters better than he does against left-handed batters. That is not all together unexpected as Smoker was only slightly better against lefties than he was against righties while in AAA this year. This means that Smoker is more than just a LOOGY, he’s a reliever that can be trusted for a full inning.
Over his past seven appearances he’s more than a pitcher than can be trusted. He’s a pitcher that can be used in high leverage situations. In those appearances, Smoker has yet to allow a run while striking out 10 batters in 5.1 innings. He is limiting batters to a .167 batting average while allowing no extra base hits. What’s even more impressive with the batting average numbers is Smoker has allowed a .375 BABIP meaning there’s not going to be regression on the balls in play. Rather, there is promise that he will get even better. The key to this impressive run is he is throwing 71% of his pitches for strikes.
As Smoker has improved at the major league level, the question is transitioning from whether the Mets can rely upon him at all to what exactly will his role be in the postseason.
Recent reports indicate in the likely event Yoenis Cespedes opts out if his contract, the starting point in negotiations will be four years, $100 million. Other industry insiders believe with the run Cespedes has had with the Mets, his next contract will exceed $125 million. Seeing how much Cespedes has meant to the Mets, the team can ill-afford to lose him in free agency no matter what the cost.
So what exactly does this have to do with Mets minor leaguer Tim Tebow? Well, Tebow is the golden goose.
It's Tebow Time! @TimTebow #LGM pic.twitter.com/en7IT5nSmo
— Majestic Athletic (@MajesticOnField) September 19, 2016
That’s right. The Mets are selling Tebow jerseys and other Tebow merchandise. Quickly, the Tebow Mets jersey has already become a top seller. Normally, teams would not be permitted to sell jerseys of minor league players who are not on the 40 man roster. However as ESPN’s Darren Rovell reports, Tebow circumvented that by agreeing to a deal directly with Majestic.
This last point is important. According to ESPN’s Adam Rubin, because Tebow is not part of the MLB licensing deal, the Mets are not required to share the profits from the sale of Tebow merchandise with the other 29 teams. Accordingly, with each and every Tebow jersey sold, the Mets will make exponentially more money on it than they would have if, for example, a fan purchased a Cespedes jersey.
Overall, this means if you want the Mets to re-sign Cespedes, the best way to show your support for him might just be buying a Tebow jersey. If the Mets sell enough of them, there should be no excuse for the Mets being unable to re-sign Cespedes.
When a player goes down, the natural inclination is to go seek out a veterans to be the stop gap or replacement. The reaction is understandable because you want a steady presence with someone who has proven stats. Granted, it’s most likely going to be diminished stats, but people would rather deal with that than a young player who may not be ready and could be even worse than the veteran.
That’s why we saw the Mets make a move to re-acquire Kelly Johnson not too long after David Wright went down. It’s why the Mets acquired James Loney to replace Lucas Duda. It’s also why the Mets brought back Jose Reyes to help an injured and underperforming Mets offense. It’s also why the Mets traded for Jay Bruce rather than counting on Michael Conforto to return to form. For the most part, it has worked out for the Mets.
With that said, Reyes is the only imported veteran who is currently producing. Johnson is mired in a 12-54 slump. Loney has hit .253/.287/.337 since the All Star Break. Bruce has hit .181/.261/.297 since joining the Mets.
These underperforming veterans coupled with the Neil Walker and Wilmer Flores injuries have forced the Mets to turn to some youngsters.
T.J. Rivera has all but taken over the second base job for the rest of the year. In the five games since he became the starting second baseman, he is hitting .450/.455/.800 with two home runs. Both of those home runs proved to be game winners. For the season, he is hitting .344/.344/.492.
Yesterday, Conforto started for Bruce, who the Mets have taken to booing after every at bat. Conforto made the most of his opportunity going 2-4 with two RBI. In the four games he was given an opportunity to start since he was recalled when rosters expanded, Conforto has gone 4-16 with two doubles, two RBI, a walk, and a hit by pitch.
It’s not just the offensive players that are outprodicing the veterans, it is the young pitchers as well.
When Matt Harvey went down, the Mets understandably turned to Logan Verrett who did an admirable job filling in as a spot starter last year. Unfortunately, this year he had a 6.45 ERA as a starter in 12 starts. The Mets also went out and brought back Jon Niese who was actually worse with the Mets than he was with the Pirates before undergoing season ending knee surgery.
With Verrett and Niese faltering and the injuries to Steven Matz and Jacob deGrom, the Mets had no choice but to go with their young pitchers.
First was Seth Lugo, who has arguably been the Mets best starter since he has joined the rotation. Lugo has made six starts going 4-1 with a 2.21 ERA and a 1.091 WHIP. Including his nine relief appearances, Lugo is 4-2 with a 2.35 ERA and a 1.043 WHIP.
He is joined in the rotation by Robert Gsellman. Gsellman has made four starts and one relief appearance where he came in for Niese when he went down for good with his knee injury. Overall, Gsellman is 2-1 with a 3.08 ERA and a 1.405 WHIP.
In addition to the offense and the rotation, the Mets have had Josh Smoker emerge in the bullpen. In 15 appearances, Smoker is 2-0 with a 4.38 ERA and a 1.135 WHIP while bailing the Mets out of a few jams. More impressively, he is striking out 15.3 batters per nine innings.
Overall, these young and untested players have stepped up and helped take the Mets from an under .500 team to a team 11 games over .500 and in the top Wild Card spot.
One of the reasons the Mets went out and obtained Jay Bruce at the trade deadline is the team felt they needed another power bat in the lineup other than Yoenis Cespedes. Unfortunately, that trade hasn’t panned out well with Bruce hitting just .192/.271/.315 with just four homers and 11 RBI in 36 games as a Met. Worse yet, the Mets gave up Dilson Herrera, who could’ve taken over as the second baseman when Neil Walker required season ending back surgery and Wilmer Flores injured his neck.
Bruce’s struggles could be alleviated if the team was getting production at first base. However, James Loney has similarly struggled. Since the All Star Break, Loney is hitting .249/.276/.329 with only eight extra base hits in 51 games. These numbers are even worse when you consider Terry Collins has done all he could do to help Loney offensively by playing Flores at first against left-handed pitching. Worse yet, Loney’s reputation as a Gold Glove caliber first baseman has been greatly overblown. While defensive metrics for first base can be seen as imperfect, and cannot be fully trusted in a single season sample size, Loney has a -3.2 UZR and 0 DRS. Combining that with the prior two seasons, Loney has averaged a -2.4 UZR and a -1 DRS. Overall, these numbers speak to Loney’s lack of range and his failure to stretch on balls thrown to first base.
The solution to both of these problems would be Lucas Duda. In 2014, Duda beat out Ike Davis to become the Mets first baseman. In his two seasons as the Mets first baseman, Duda was a .249/.350/.483 hitter who averaged 28 homers and 82 RBI. Entering the season, Bruce was a .248/.319/.462 hitter who averages 26 homers and 80 RBI. Accordingly, Duda was a better power hitter and “run producer” who also got on base at a higher clip. Naturally, Duda far surpasses Loney has a hitter.
Defensively, Duda’s poor defensive reputation really rests on one bad throw in the World Series. Over his career, he has a 2.5 UZR and an 11 DRS. Over the two seasons he was the everyday first baseman, Duda averaged a 0.1 UZR and a 5 DRS. Using these advanced metrics, Duda is a much better defender than his reputation suggests, and he is a better defender than Loney. More importantly, as Keith Hernandez consistently pointed out over the past few seasons, Duda cheats to get to each and every ball thrown by an infielder. He stretches as far out as he can to help the Mets get the out calls on the close calls at first base.
Offensively and defensively, Duda is exactly what this Mets team needs for the stretch run and the postseason. Unfortunately, Duda suffered a stress fracture in his lower back. With a few setbacks during his rehabilitation, Duda was supposed to be gone for the season.
As it turns out, he wasn’t. Duda was able to get enough stationary bike riding and batting practice in for the Mets to feel comfortable activating him from the disabled list on Saturday. Even better, he got the surprise start on Sunday.
He would go 0-2 with a strikeout looking rusty at the plate. He was eventually lifted for Asdrubal Cabrera when the Twins brought in the left-handed Buddy Boshers to pitch the sixth. In the field, Duda was back to his normal form stretching out to give his team the best chance possible to get the base runner.
Getting on the field was a good start. However, if the Mets are going to make a run in the postseason, they will need Duda’s bat. There are 13 games left in the season for him to get into form. Hopefully, Collins will give him every opportunity to get going before the Wild Card Game.
If so, we have seen a hot Duda bat carry the Mets for long stretches. It just might carry the Mets to the World Series.
The Mets have had a number of players serve as admirable replacements and stop gaps to help lead the Mets charge back to the postseason.
Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman have replaced the injured Jacob deGrom and Steven Matz in the Mets rotation, and they have combined to go 6-3 with a 2.64 ERA and a WHIP in nine starts and 10 relief appearances. James Loney had a terrific first half to help cushion the blow of the loss of Lucas Duda. Wilmer Flores and Kelly Johnson have helped to replicate the offensive production of Neil Walker who is done for the season after having season ending back surgery. After Flores went down with a neck injury, T.J. Rivera had the game of his life. When Juan Lagares needed surgery to repair a torn ligament in this thumb and Yoenis Cespedes found himself unable to play center field with his injured quad, Curtis Granderson began playing center field and hitting again. Same goes for Alejandro De Aza. For the very few games Justin Ruggiano played, he mashed left-handed pitching.
However, while each of these players have done a better than expected job, there is no doubt the Mets would be better off with their regulars. Fortunately, the reinforcements are on their way with Lagares being activated off the disabled list.
With the minor league seasons having been over for about a week, Lagares has not had the benefit of being able to face live pitching. That shouldn’t matter much as Lagares’ true value has always been as a center fielder. This season the 2014 Gold Glover has returned to form with a 4.5 UZR and a 7 DRS in 59 games this season. This will allow the Mets to put out their best defensive alignment of Cespedes in left, Lagares in center, and Granderson in right late in games.
This was the alignment the Mets used effectively in the stretch run last season and in their run to the World Series. Speaking of which, Lagares was a tremendous contributor to the Mets postseason run last year. Lagares appeared in 13 postseason games last year playing a Gold Glove caliber center field while hitting .348/.375/.435 with two stolen bases. If Lagares is again able to play and raise his game again, the Mets chances of returning to the World Series will greatly improved.
And as if that wasn’t enough, Duda will be activated later today, and at a minimum, he will be available to pinch hit. On Sunday, deGrom will return to the rotation. He will start to work his way back as he’s limited to 75 pitches. Finally, Matz has been throwing off a mound.
The reinforcements are coming, and with them the Mets chances of winning a World Series has vastly improved.
The Mets are where they are in the season because Addison Reed and Jeurys Familia. The tandem have managed to hold the lead in all but seven games in which they have been entrusted with the lead. They do it despite being used game after game after game. As it stands right now, Reed ranks third in appearances with 71, and Familia ranks fifth with 70. Terry Collins keeps sending them out there to face the stampede:
As it is the nature of the position, Familia is the one that gets the glory. He is the one setting save records this season, and the is the one that gets to stand on the mound celebrating when the Met win a game. However, most of the time, he only gets the save opportunity due to Reed “holding” the lead before the ninth.
So far this season, Reed has 36 holds which is far and away the most in the major leagues. It should come as no surprise due to the frequency in which he has been used and because of how great he has been. In Reed’s 71 appearances, he has gone 4-2 with a 1.82 ERA, a 0.947 WHIP, and a 10.3 K/9. With these numbers, Reed has accumulated a 2.9 WAR, which ranks only behind Noah Syndergaard, Jacob deGrom, and Yoenis Cespedes this season. It’s astounding when you think about it. Reed has had a greater impact in 69.2 innings than most of the Mets have made having played in many more innings.
Overall, Reed has statistically been the best reliever in the Mets bullpen this year. When he combines with Familia, they protect almost each and every lead. While people complain about how inane the save rule is and how made up the hold is, fact is the Mets have made every game a seven inning game. Reed is a large part of that.
No matter it is who steps in the batter’s box, so long as that player is wearing a Mets uniform, you are going to root for that player. At times, that can be tough as we have seen with Bobby Bonilla, Vince Coleman, Bret Saberhagen, and many other Mets past and present. These experiences make you relish the opportunity to root for a good player and an even better person like Curtis Granderson.
For the second straight season, Granderson was nominated for the Roberto Clemente Award for his being a “player who best represents the game through extraordinary character, community involvement, philanthropy and positive contributions, both on and off the field.” (MLB.com). Major League Baseball announced Granderson was nominated for being:
One of the sport’s greatest ambassadors on and off the field, he makes a major difference for inner-city kids with his Grand Kids Foundation, backs many other causes and donated $5 million to his alma mater at the University of Illinois-Chicago to help create a new baseball complex.
The Grand Kids Foundation runs youth baseball programs in Florida (site of the Mets Spring Training), Chicago (his hometown), Detroit (his first major league team) and New York. Granderson doesn’t forget anyone or any place. In his career, Granderson has used the wealth he has accumulated due to his tremendous baseball talent, and he has helped children who are less fortunate than him. Recently, Granderson posted an example of the fun and learning that happens in his baseball programs:
Ever wonder what happens behind the scenes at our #GrandKids youth camps? Here's a sneak peak, thanks to @GoPro! pic.twitter.com/Bt0fGiw9lb
— Curtis Granderson (@cgrand3) September 14, 2016
Overall, the Grand Kids Programs stated mission is “Through play, education and sportsmanship, participants gain invaluable skills they can carry with them for a liftetime.”
This past year, Granderson has expanded beyond these baseball clinics and safe spaces for children to learn and play baseball by starting Grand Giving. Grand Giving is “an annual hunger relief program” that has the goal of providing “one million meals during November for families in New York and Chicago.” (New York Post). The program has been a success in Granderson’s native Chicago, and now he has brought it to New York this year. This program is near and dear to Granderson’s heart, as he said, “I remember days of not having a meal, trying to focus in the classroom and to be able to do things I wanted to on the baseball field and basketball court. Imagine if you did not have a meal for a couple days.”
However, Granderson is much more than these foundations. He has also donated his time during this season to read to school children:
Here are Curtis Granderson and Eric Campbell reading "Green Eggs and Ham" to children today at PS 92 in Corona. pic.twitter.com/RNPYqdJO08
— Anthony DiComo (@AnthonyDiComo) May 3, 2016
Even with Granderson taking his time out to help others, he still remains an important and productive player for the New York Mets. Last year, he was far and away the team’s MVP keeping an injured Mets team in the race until reinforcements were able to arrive. He would also be the Mets best player in the World Series hitting three home runs. This year has been more of a struggle for him, but during the Mets charge for the postseason, he has been hitting .245/.387/.673 with a double, a triple, six homers and 14 RBI over his last 15 games. During that stretch, he has moved over to center field because that is what the Mets needed him to do.
Couple that with his taking time to sign autographs before and during games, Granderson is about an easy a Mets player there has ever been to root for. With that in mind, the least we can all do is tweet #VoteGrandy so he can get the recognition he so richly deserves for being a terrific player on the field and an even better human being off of it.