Musings
Normally in this spot, I’d point out something Terry Collins did to really hinder his chances of winning not just the previous game, but in some instances, things he did that hurt his team’s chances of winning a game. That didn’t happen yesterday.
Collins was put in the tough spot of having to start Sean Gilmartin because Noah Syndergaard was too sick to pitch. If you’re arguing someone else should have started, it’s just blind Collins’ hatred.
Logan Verrett forfeited the opportunity to be a spot starter with some poor starts when he took Matt Harvey‘s spot in the rotation. Between those starts and his work Friday night, he established he shouldn’t get the start.
Rafael Montero has also shown himself undeserving of a start. He’d prove he shouldn’t have started giving up five runs in 3.1 innings of work.
Gilmartin was the reasonable choice. When the Phillies put up a five spot on him with only two outs in the first, it was reasonable to go to Montero. Given the state of the Mets bullpen, it was the right move to stick with Montero for 3.1 innings despite the Mets falling down 10-0 in the fourth.
At that point, Collins made his best decision of the year. After giving his regulars a shot to put some runs on the board in the fourth, he got them out if the game.
It was a chance for Asdrubal Cabrera to rest both of his knees, and Yoenis Cespedes to rest his quad. It also allowed Curtis Granderson and Jose Reyes to get a bit of a breather.
Collins would also keep the right people in the game. Both Lucas Duda and Michael Conforto need to get at bats to get them ready for the postseason. Also, you want to give Travis d’Arnaud, who is still the team’s best offensive catcher, a chance to get going.
It also allowed the Mets to get two former first round picks, Gavin Cecchini and Brandon Nimmo, some playing time and some exposure to the pennant race. It also allowed the team to take an extended look at Ty Kelly and Eric Campbell, both of whom may be on the bubble for a postseason roster spot.
As it turns out, this group wasn’t content on playing out the string. The bench players and future regulars did all they could do to tie the game with them falling mercilessly short. That speaks positive of both them and their manager.
It’s bizarre to think Collins best game was in a game the Mets were down early 10-0. But that’s the thing about judging managers, you just want them to have the right process and let the chips fall where they may. The more often your manager has the right thought process, and puts his team in a position to succeed, you’re going to win games.
Coincidentally, Collins managed this game extremely well, and as it turned out, the team almost pulled out a victory. More importantly, this team should be fresher and in a good position to win tomorrow afternoon.
As we have seen all season, the Mets basically need to hit home runs in order to score runs and win games. Last night, against the Phillies was no exception in what was a back-and-forth nail bitter.
Curtis Granderson would get the Mets on the board with a two run shot off of Phillies starter left-handed starter Adam Morgan:
The home run was an important one as it gave the Mets and Seth Lugo a 2-0 lead in a game they really had to have after being swept by the Braves.
Well, because this is the Mets, and nothing is easy, that two run lead would turn into a 3-2 deficit thanks to a couple of Phillies long balls. At the time, Seth Lugo was cruising, after only allowing a run off a Roman Quinn RBI groundout after Cesar Hernandez legged out a triple. However, in the top of the fifth, Ryan Howard and Cameron Rupp would got back-to-back. Those homers effectively knocked Lugo out of the game after another strong effort.
Ty Kelly would pinch hit for Lugo in the bottom of the inning, and he would get a rally started with a walk. He eventually came home on a Yoenis Cespedes clutch two-out single tying the game. With the way things have been going with the Mets lately that RBI single seemed bigger than it probably was. What was even bigger was Cespedes RBI double in the seventh that would score Jose Reyes to give the Mets a late 4-3 lead. With Addison Reed and Jeurys Familia ready for the eighth and ninth, this game seemed in the bag.
It wasn’t as Reed was done in by three balls that didn’t leave the infield and one that did. Hernandez used his speed again to bunt his way on, and he was standing at second after a Quinn sacrifice bunt. The Mets would challenge the next play, and it was really close, but Odubel Herrera beat T.J. Rivera‘s throw to first to set up runners on the corner with one out. Rivera really did all he could do on that play. He made a diving stop that saved a run, he popped up, and he made a strong throw. Herrera just beat the throw. Why? Well, as usual the “good defensive baseman” James Loney couldn’t bother stretching on the play. It was a crucial play because Maikel Franco would hit a three run homer to turn the Mets sure-handed victory into a 6-4 deficit.
There was an ominous tone to the home run after the Braves series. It was an even worse situation when the Mets failed to score in the bottom of the eighth and the bottom of the Mets lineup was due up in the bottom of the ninth. Brandon Nimmo would pinch hit for Travis d’Arnaud and get on with a single. After Nimmo, Jay Bruce made his obligatory pinch hit strike out thereby leaving the game in Reyes’ hands:
You’d be hard-pressed to find a bigger hit in Reyes’ Mets career. As big as that home run was, what would follow in the 11th would loom even larger.
In his second straight multiple inning outing, Familia would put the Mets in position to lose in his second inning of work. After a clean 10th, Familia would allow a leadoff double to Freddy Galvis. Familia would be ever so close to navigating around it getting the next two guys out. Then in a curious move, perhaps to negate the ability of Hernandez killing the Mets with his legs again, Collins ordered an intentional walk. A.J. Ellis, who is a renown clutch hitter, would deliver the go-ahead single giving the Phillies a 7-6 lead.
Jerry Blevins would relieve Familia, and he would load the bases by hitting Herrera. That led Collins to turn to Jim Henderson, who would walk Franco to give the Phillies an almost insurmountable two run lead.
Still, the Mets had a chance with Nimmo leading off. Unfortunately, he didn’t have the same magic he had in his last at bat. Michael Conforto, pinch hitting for Henderson, would have to get this rally started. He did by drawing a walk. He would find himself standing on second after a Reyes single. At that point, the Mets would send Asdrubal Cabrera to the plate as the winning run. Right now, he is the guy you want at the plate more than anyone – not just the Mets, but in all of baseball. He would show you why:
His bat flip said it all. It was a huge emotionally charged home run to give the Mets the victory they so desperately needed. The home run also made baseball history as the Mets become the second team to come back with homers to erase two run deficits in the ninth inning or later in a game.
With the much needed victory, you felt the momentum for this team shift. You once again felt as if the Mets were assured of winning a Wild Card spot. As it stood, the win helped the Mets keep pace with the Giants and put them a half a game up on the idle Cardinals.
Last night, with the Mets trailing 8-6 in the 11th inning, Asdrubal Cabrera not only hit a walk-off three run homer, he also had a bat flip for the ages:
It reminds you of epic bat flip we saw last postseason.
With the NLDS between the Mets and the Dodgers tied at one apiece, Yoenis Cespedes hit a three run bomb to left to blow Game Three open:
So that begs the question, which bat flip was better?
For me, it may be recency bias, it may be the utter celebration involved, but Cabrera wins this round in my mind. While Cespedes’ was in the NLDS, Cabrera’s was a game-winner in a game the Mets absolutely had to have.
Honorable Mention should go to Mike Piazza for this mammoth shot against the Yankees in what was an incredible back-and-forth game:
Guess who has been the best hitter in all of baseball over the past month? Mike Trout? No it’s a National League player. Kris Bryant? No, the player resides in the National League East. Daniel Murphy? Actually, no, it is a Mets player. Yoenis Cespedes? It isn’t. The best hitter in all of baseball over the past month is Asdrubal Cabrera.
In his career, Cabrera has been a second half player, but his level of play recently has been off the charts.
In the second half, Cabrera has been hitting .309/.359/.564 with 13 doubles, one triple, nine homers, and 23 RBI. In the month of August, he hit .405/.435/.786 with four doubles, four homers, and 11 RBI. So far in September, he has been hitting .328/.408/.627 with six doubles, one triple, four homers and eight RBI. These numbers are all the more incredible when you consider Cabrera is doing this on just one knee. A knee injury that required him to go on the disabled list at the beginning of August.
When Cabrera returned to the lineup on August 19th, the Mets were one game under .500, and they were quickly falling out of the Wild Card race. In fact, they sat five games behind the Cardinals for the second Wild Card and seven games behind the Giants for the first Wild Card. Since Cabrera’s return , the Mets have gone 20-11 which is the best record in all of baseball. The run has catapulted themselves into a three way tie with the Cardinals and Giants in the Wild Card race.
This run coincides with Cabrera’s hot hitting. Since his return from the disabled list, he has been the Mets best player. Even on one leg, he is carrying the Mets back to the postseason.
Last night might’ve been the breaking point for Travis d’Arnaud. The Mets had a runner in scoring position with two outs in the bottom of the eighth as the Mets trailed the Braves 5-4. In what was his biggest at bat of the season, d’Arnaud weakly grounded out to shortstop to end the inning and the rally. This could have been the culmination in what has been a lost season for d’Arnaud.
After hitting .268/.340/.485 with 12 homers and 41 RBI last year, this was supposed to be the year d’Arnaud took off. It hasn’t happened. Whether it was losing catching and bench coach Bob Geren to the Dodgers, his rotator cuff injury, his irregular playing time, or just bad mechanics at the plate, this hasn’t been his year. He hasn’t been hitting for power. Overall, he is hitting .246/.300/.321 with only four homers and 14 RBI. In fact, d’Arnaud hasn’t had an RBI since August 26th. He hasn’t homered since August 2nd. In 11 games this month, he is hitting .200/.282/.200 with no extra base hits or RBI. At this point, with the Wild Card on the line, the Mets can ill afford to play him.
The question then become is not d’Arnaud, then who? People will mostly point to Rene Rivera.
Fact is, if the Mets are dissatisfied with d’Arnaud, they shouldn’t want Rivera either. Like d’Arnaud, Rivera has also played 11 games in September. In those games, he is hitting .174/.269/.174. Similarly, he has no extra base hits or RBI. Fact is, he’s been even more of a blackhole offensively than d’Arnaud. That should be no surprise given the fact that he’s a career .213/.263/.332 hitter. If you want Rivera to continue to be Noah Syndergaard‘s personal catcher, that’s one thing. However, Rivera cannot play everyday with those offensive numbers.
That leaves the Mets with only one other option – Kevin Plawecki.
From an offensive standpoint, there are many negative things you can say about Plawecki. Before being sent down to AAA, he was hitting .194/.301/.258 with five doubles, one homer, and 10 RBI. He is hitting .231 with runners in scoring position and .212 with men on base. In his entire major league career, he is a .208/.285/.281 hitter with four homers and 31 RBI. He’s been a dead pull hitter that hits for no power. Those are the numbers that got him sent down to AAA.
However, in AAA, he seemed to regain some of the promise he had as a good offensive catcher. In 55 AAA games, Plawecki hit .300/.384/.484 with 11 doubles, eight homers, and 40 RBI. Given the fact that the Pacific Coast League is a hitter’s league, these numers are not outstanding. However, they are a step in the right direction. Heading in the right direction is a lot more than you can say for Plawecki than you can for d’Arnaud and Rivera.
In his time with the Mets, one thing we have seen with Plawecki is he is a good defensive catcher and pitch framer. With his time in AAA, he has also had the opportunity to catch Seth Lugo, Robert Gsellman, and Josh Smoker this year. With that in mind, he is already up to speed on what they throw and how they get batters out. This means the only real issue with Plawecki is whether he will hit like the Mets once thought he would.
Even if Plawecki hits at the same .208 clip he has in his entire major league career, he will be a better offensive option than d’Arnaud and Rivera have been this month. With that in mind, there is really no downside to giving Plawecki another shot.
No matter how you look at it, the Jay Bruce acquisition has been a disaster for the Mets. In 40 games, Bruce has hit .176/.255/.289 with only four doubles, four homers, and 11 RBI. Bruce has gone from the major league leader in RBI to tied for 30th in the majors and 10th in the National League. He went from hitting .360 with runners in scoring position to .172 with the Mets.
Yesterday was rock bottom for him. He got mixed up with Curtis Granderson on a catchable flyball that lead to a Matt Kemp RBI single instead of a an out with Bruce having a chance to throw the runner out at home. At the plate, Bruce was 0-3. Worse yet, when the Mets were rallying to try the game, Terry Collins pinch hit Eric Campbell for him when the Braves brought in the lefty Ian Kroll to face him. Bruce was brought to the Mets just for these RBI situations. However, it has now gotten to the point that no one trusts him in those spots.
Bruce’s struggles have led some to suggest the Mets should decline Bruce’s $13 million option and give him his $1 million buy out. If the Mets were to do that, it would be a very poor decision.
Over his career, Bruce is a .247/.317/.465 hitter who averages 26 homers and 81 RBI. With Bruce turning 30 years old next year, there is every reason to believe Bruce’s struggles with the Mets are the result of a player struggling when joining a new team more than it is a Jason Bay falling apart when signing the Mets and playing his games under the old outfield configurations of Citi Field. So yes, there is reason to believe Bruce will return to form next season whether or not he is wearing a Mets uniform.
Admittedly, the Mets are going to have a glut of outfielders next year. Curtis Granderson is under contract for another year. The Mets figure to give Michael Conforto an everyday job next year. Juan Lagares should be healthy and could form a center field platoon with Brandon Nimmo. Furthermore, Justin Ruggiano, who mashed lefties in the short time he was with the Mets, is arbitration eligible. In addition to that, the Mets should do all they can to bring back Yoenis Cespedes in the even he opts out of his contract. Looking over this list, it’s hard to find a spot for Bruce in the Mets outfield.
The Mets could shift Bruce to first base. However, Lucas Duda, who has been a much better offensive player than Bruce, is still under team control. Additionally, with the overcrowded outfield, it is possible the Mets will seek to move Conforto to first base as has been recommended by Keith Hernandez. Overall, no matter where you look, there may not be room for Bruce. With that in mind, why pick up his option?
The reason is Bruce is an asset in what is going to be a weak free agent class. After Cespedes, the best free agent outfielders will be Ian Desmond, Mark Trumbo, and Jose Bautista. Each of these free agents have their own issues.
Desmond was a surprising All Star outfielder after struggling last year with the Nationals. However, overlooking his stats, Desmond has a number of issues. First, he is hitting .239/.287/.362 in the second half. Second, he’s showing himself to be a platoon bat hitting .272/.329/.442 against righties and .338/.373/.507 against lefties. Lastly, Desmond appears to be a product of Globe Life Park hitting .336/.374/.516 at home and .244/.309/.405 on the road.
Trumbo is essentially Bruce with vastly inferior defense. He also has the same issues as Desmond. He’s hitting .188/.266/.431 in the second half. He’s hitting .183/.232/.415 against lefties. He’s also hitting .257/.337/.552 at Camden Yards and .242/.282/.498 on the road.
Bautista is a 35 year old outfielder who has taken a step back this season. Over his last six seasons with the Blue Jays, he played at a superstar level hitting .268/.390/.555 while averaging 38 homers and 97 RBI. This year he is only hitting .258/.359/.433 with only 18 homers and 59 RBI.
Another team could look at these options and determine they would rather obtain Bruce who should have similar production at a reasonable $13 million price tag. Teams may also prefer to keep their first round pick rather than give it up for Desmond, Trumbo, or Bautista. Additionally, if Bruce bounces back from his struggles with the Mets, the acquiring team could make him a qualifying offer allowing them to obtain a compensatory first round pick in the event Bruce leaves them next offseason.
There’s the other issue. Cespedes is far from a lock to return. In that scenario, the Mets may feel compelled to find a player who can put up the power numbers Cespedes does. Like it or not, the Mets only real opportunity to replace Cespedes’ bat in the lineup will be a Bruce caliber bat. With Bruce most likely being the cheapest option as well as the option that doesn’t require the Mets to forfeit a first round pick, he is probably the Mets best Cespedes replacement (NOTE: no one can truly replace Cespedes).
So yes, Bruce has been a terrible with the Mets. However, that shouldn’t prevent the Mets from picking up his option as he is going to have value for someone next year. Just cross your fingers that team won’t be the Mets.
The strange thing about this part of the season is the team has to do everything they can do to win games in order to get their team into the postseason. However, at the same time, the team is assessing players to find out who could be valuable pieces on the postseason roster. Accordingly, the manager has to balance finding out something about a player in a pressure situation with making sure the player doesn’t fail and blow the game.
This year Josh Smoker is the embodiment of that conundrum.
After Josh Edgin struggled, the Mets decided to go call-up Smoker and give him his shot to pitch out of the bullpen. Smoker earned the shot as he had a 1.04 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP in his 14 appearances after the All Star Game. He was also striking out 11.4 batters per nine innings during that stretch. Additionally, he had the stuff to pitch in the majors. According to Brooks Baseball, Smoker throws over 95 MPH with a slider and split that generates a lot of swings and misses.
Still, relying on Smoker was far from a given. He still had a 4.11 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP in AAA. It wasn’t just the typical Pacific Coast League inflation. In his minor league career, Smoker had a 4.58 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP. Again, while his stuff translated to the majors, it did not translate statistically. Overall, while there was promise, Smoker was far from a given.
That’s what makes Smoker’s current run with the Mets all the more impressive.
In 15 appearances with the Mets, Smoker has a 4.38 ERA and a 1.135 WHIP while striking out an eye-popping 15.3 batters per nine innings. As it stands, he has reverse splits with him faring better against right-handed betters better than he does against left-handed batters. That is not all together unexpected as Smoker was only slightly better against lefties than he was against righties while in AAA this year. This means that Smoker is more than just a LOOGY, he’s a reliever that can be trusted for a full inning.
Over his past seven appearances he’s more than a pitcher than can be trusted. He’s a pitcher that can be used in high leverage situations. In those appearances, Smoker has yet to allow a run while striking out 10 batters in 5.1 innings. He is limiting batters to a .167 batting average while allowing no extra base hits. What’s even more impressive with the batting average numbers is Smoker has allowed a .375 BABIP meaning there’s not going to be regression on the balls in play. Rather, there is promise that he will get even better. The key to this impressive run is he is throwing 71% of his pitches for strikes.
As Smoker has improved at the major league level, the question is transitioning from whether the Mets can rely upon him at all to what exactly will his role be in the postseason.