Musings
Tonight marks Seth Lugo‘s last start in what has been an already incredible season for him. More than any other pitcher in the Mets organization, it was unlikely that Lugo would find himself in this position.
After 14 starts and a 6.93 ERA for AAA Las Vegas, the Mets organization decided Lugo should not be a starting pitcher. It was certainly understandable. The Mets major league team was flush with young starting pitching with Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, and Steven Matz. Zack Wheeler was supposed to join them soon as he was rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. If the Mets needed a spot starter, there was Logan Verrett, who did the job quite admirably last year, and Sean Gilmartin, who pitched well in the majors last season. When you also consider the Mets had well regarded pitching prospects in Gabriel Ynoa and Robert Gsellman, it was seemingly time to move Lugo to the bullpen. At 26 years old, it was probably his best chance to make it to the majors.
Lo and behold, that’s exactly how he would make it to the bigs. In his first major league appearance, he unleashed what was then the best curveball ever thrown in the Statcast Era. The pitch fooled Anthony Rizzo, a player who finished in the top four in MVP voting last year, is a three time All Star, and is hitting .305/.395/.579 with 23 homers and 72 RBI off right-handed pitching. Right then and there Lugo not only showed that his curveball may be the best pitch in the entire Mets system, but that he belongs in the major leagues.
Lugo would continue to show he was a major leauger in his next nine appearances. In those appearances, he pitched 17.0 innings with a 2.65 ERA and a 0.941 WHIP. In those appearances, he limited batters to a .185/.273/.222 batting line.
Then disaster struck – not to Lugo, but to the Mets starting rotation. With Lugo pitching well out of the bullpen, he soon found himself in the one place no one thought he was ever going to be. The starting rotation. In his first start, Lugo was much better than anyone ever imagined pitching 6.2 innings against the Giants. He was able to be economical with his pitches thereby allowing him to go deep into the game despite it being his first start in two months.
From there, Lugo has shown he belongs in the rotation. In Lugo’s seven starts, he is 4-1 with a 2.59 ERA and a 1.104 WHIP. When there are runners in scoring position, Lugo has shown the ability to bear down (some would call it luck) adding a few extra MPH to his fastball and relying a little more heavily on a curveball that generates both swings and misses as well as groundballs. As a result, batters are only hitting .163/.259/.233 off of him in those situations.
That’s where Lugo finds himself on his last start of the regular season. He’s taking the mound against the Marlins in the hopes of dropping the Mets magic number to clinch one of the Wild Card spots from four to three or two. He’s also making his case that he should pitch the Wild Card Game in the event Syndergaard has to pitch in the regular season finale on Sunday. He’s also making the case he should be the third starter over Gsellman this postseason.
He’s also making the case that he belongs in the long term plans of the New York Mets. He’s already done a terrific job of doing that so far. Another strong start here and a good postseason, it’ll be a guarantee.
Last season, on the eve of September, Sandy Alderson went out and obtained Addison Reed from the Arizona Diamondbacks. Up until that point in the season, Reed was having a poor year that included a demotion to AAA. In his 38 appearances with the Diamondbacks, he was 2-2 with a 4.20 ERA and a 1.500 WHIP while only striking out 7.5 batters per nine innings. When Reed joined the Mets, he became a much different pitcher. In his 17 September appearances, he was 1-1 with a 1.17 ERA, a 1.043 WHIP, and a 10.0 K/9. With that, Reed locked down the seventh inning a Mets team and bullpen that would go all the way to the World Series.
Fernando Salas could be this year’s version of Addison Reed.
Like Reed, Alderson went out and got Salas right before the waiver trade deadline. Similar to Reed, Alderson pounced on a reliever with a good track record, had some closing experience, and was having a down year. In Salas’ 58 appearances with the Angels, he was 3-6 with a 4.47 ERA and a 1.260 WHIP. Now, he had been pitching better in August, but he still had a 3.48 ERA for the month. That’s a nice reliever to have, but that’s not the lockdown seventh inning reliever a team with World Series aspirations needs.
Well, like Reed the year before, Salas has become a better pitcher with the Mets. In his 14 appearances with the Mets, Salas has a sterling 1.88 ERA and a 0.628 WHIP. He has gone from striking out 7.2 batters per nine innings to striking out 9.4 batters per nine innings with the Mets. Salas is maintaining this high level with the Mets despite his throwing the fifth most innings in all of baseball in the month of September.
What is interesting bout Salas’ turnaround is that his stuff hasn’t changed all that much from the Angels to the Mets. He is getting slightly more movement, but it’s not so appreciable that he would become a completely different pitcher. He still rarely uses his slider, and he uses his changeup as an out pitch. Looking at these numbers, you would expect a regression. However, there is something different Salas is doing that is not indicated here that gives you hope this tremendous stretch is for real. He’s throwing strikes.
Salas went from walking 3.0 batters per nine innings this year with the Angels to not walking anyone with the Mets. The reason is Salas is throwing more strikes. He’s getting into the games, establishing his fastball quickly, and he is pounding the zone.
A large part of this is Salas making a concerted effort to throw more strikes. Another part of the reason is the difference between the Mets catchers and the Angels catchers. Again, Travis d’Arnaud has shown himself to be one of the better pitch framers in all of baseball. Rene Rivera is also having a better season in that respect than he has had in year’s past. As for the Angels catchers Carlos Perez and Jeff Bandy, they have not been good pitch framers at all this season. The difference between the two sets of catchers is a big one. It is the difference between falling behind early in the count allowing you to set up a batter for a strikeout to trying to get a pitch over so you don’t issue a free pass. It is the difference between a called strike three and a batter getting a free pass.
Overall, Salas has been the beneficiary of the Mets catchers exceptional pitch framing. The Mets have been the beneficiaries of Salas’ pitching. With him, the Mets have a pitcher that has allowed them to ease off the overworked Reed and Jeurys Familia down the stretch. With him, the Mets have a terrific 7-8-9 trio to close out important games.
Editor’s Note: this was first published on Mets Merized Online.
Normally in this spot, I’d point out something Terry Collins did to really hinder his chances of winning not just the previous game, but in some instances, things he did that hurt his team’s chances of winning a game. That didn’t happen yesterday.
Collins was put in the tough spot of having to start Sean Gilmartin because Noah Syndergaard was too sick to pitch. If you’re arguing someone else should have started, it’s just blind Collins’ hatred.
Logan Verrett forfeited the opportunity to be a spot starter with some poor starts when he took Matt Harvey‘s spot in the rotation. Between those starts and his work Friday night, he established he shouldn’t get the start.
Rafael Montero has also shown himself undeserving of a start. He’d prove he shouldn’t have started giving up five runs in 3.1 innings of work.
Gilmartin was the reasonable choice. When the Phillies put up a five spot on him with only two outs in the first, it was reasonable to go to Montero. Given the state of the Mets bullpen, it was the right move to stick with Montero for 3.1 innings despite the Mets falling down 10-0 in the fourth.
At that point, Collins made his best decision of the year. After giving his regulars a shot to put some runs on the board in the fourth, he got them out if the game.
It was a chance for Asdrubal Cabrera to rest both of his knees, and Yoenis Cespedes to rest his quad. It also allowed Curtis Granderson and Jose Reyes to get a bit of a breather.
Collins would also keep the right people in the game. Both Lucas Duda and Michael Conforto need to get at bats to get them ready for the postseason. Also, you want to give Travis d’Arnaud, who is still the team’s best offensive catcher, a chance to get going.
It also allowed the Mets to get two former first round picks, Gavin Cecchini and Brandon Nimmo, some playing time and some exposure to the pennant race. It also allowed the team to take an extended look at Ty Kelly and Eric Campbell, both of whom may be on the bubble for a postseason roster spot.
As it turns out, this group wasn’t content on playing out the string. The bench players and future regulars did all they could do to tie the game with them falling mercilessly short. That speaks positive of both them and their manager.
It’s bizarre to think Collins best game was in a game the Mets were down early 10-0. But that’s the thing about judging managers, you just want them to have the right process and let the chips fall where they may. The more often your manager has the right thought process, and puts his team in a position to succeed, you’re going to win games.
Coincidentally, Collins managed this game extremely well, and as it turned out, the team almost pulled out a victory. More importantly, this team should be fresher and in a good position to win tomorrow afternoon.
As we have seen all season, the Mets basically need to hit home runs in order to score runs and win games. Last night, against the Phillies was no exception in what was a back-and-forth nail bitter.
Curtis Granderson would get the Mets on the board with a two run shot off of Phillies starter left-handed starter Adam Morgan:
The home run was an important one as it gave the Mets and Seth Lugo a 2-0 lead in a game they really had to have after being swept by the Braves.
Well, because this is the Mets, and nothing is easy, that two run lead would turn into a 3-2 deficit thanks to a couple of Phillies long balls. At the time, Seth Lugo was cruising, after only allowing a run off a Roman Quinn RBI groundout after Cesar Hernandez legged out a triple. However, in the top of the fifth, Ryan Howard and Cameron Rupp would got back-to-back. Those homers effectively knocked Lugo out of the game after another strong effort.
Ty Kelly would pinch hit for Lugo in the bottom of the inning, and he would get a rally started with a walk. He eventually came home on a Yoenis Cespedes clutch two-out single tying the game. With the way things have been going with the Mets lately that RBI single seemed bigger than it probably was. What was even bigger was Cespedes RBI double in the seventh that would score Jose Reyes to give the Mets a late 4-3 lead. With Addison Reed and Jeurys Familia ready for the eighth and ninth, this game seemed in the bag.
It wasn’t as Reed was done in by three balls that didn’t leave the infield and one that did. Hernandez used his speed again to bunt his way on, and he was standing at second after a Quinn sacrifice bunt. The Mets would challenge the next play, and it was really close, but Odubel Herrera beat T.J. Rivera‘s throw to first to set up runners on the corner with one out. Rivera really did all he could do on that play. He made a diving stop that saved a run, he popped up, and he made a strong throw. Herrera just beat the throw. Why? Well, as usual the “good defensive baseman” James Loney couldn’t bother stretching on the play. It was a crucial play because Maikel Franco would hit a three run homer to turn the Mets sure-handed victory into a 6-4 deficit.
There was an ominous tone to the home run after the Braves series. It was an even worse situation when the Mets failed to score in the bottom of the eighth and the bottom of the Mets lineup was due up in the bottom of the ninth. Brandon Nimmo would pinch hit for Travis d’Arnaud and get on with a single. After Nimmo, Jay Bruce made his obligatory pinch hit strike out thereby leaving the game in Reyes’ hands:
You’d be hard-pressed to find a bigger hit in Reyes’ Mets career. As big as that home run was, what would follow in the 11th would loom even larger.
In his second straight multiple inning outing, Familia would put the Mets in position to lose in his second inning of work. After a clean 10th, Familia would allow a leadoff double to Freddy Galvis. Familia would be ever so close to navigating around it getting the next two guys out. Then in a curious move, perhaps to negate the ability of Hernandez killing the Mets with his legs again, Collins ordered an intentional walk. A.J. Ellis, who is a renown clutch hitter, would deliver the go-ahead single giving the Phillies a 7-6 lead.
Jerry Blevins would relieve Familia, and he would load the bases by hitting Herrera. That led Collins to turn to Jim Henderson, who would walk Franco to give the Phillies an almost insurmountable two run lead.
Still, the Mets had a chance with Nimmo leading off. Unfortunately, he didn’t have the same magic he had in his last at bat. Michael Conforto, pinch hitting for Henderson, would have to get this rally started. He did by drawing a walk. He would find himself standing on second after a Reyes single. At that point, the Mets would send Asdrubal Cabrera to the plate as the winning run. Right now, he is the guy you want at the plate more than anyone – not just the Mets, but in all of baseball. He would show you why:
His bat flip said it all. It was a huge emotionally charged home run to give the Mets the victory they so desperately needed. The home run also made baseball history as the Mets become the second team to come back with homers to erase two run deficits in the ninth inning or later in a game.
With the much needed victory, you felt the momentum for this team shift. You once again felt as if the Mets were assured of winning a Wild Card spot. As it stood, the win helped the Mets keep pace with the Giants and put them a half a game up on the idle Cardinals.
Last night, with the Mets trailing 8-6 in the 11th inning, Asdrubal Cabrera not only hit a walk-off three run homer, he also had a bat flip for the ages:
It reminds you of epic bat flip we saw last postseason.
With the NLDS between the Mets and the Dodgers tied at one apiece, Yoenis Cespedes hit a three run bomb to left to blow Game Three open:
So that begs the question, which bat flip was better?
For me, it may be recency bias, it may be the utter celebration involved, but Cabrera wins this round in my mind. While Cespedes’ was in the NLDS, Cabrera’s was a game-winner in a game the Mets absolutely had to have.
Honorable Mention should go to Mike Piazza for this mammoth shot against the Yankees in what was an incredible back-and-forth game:
Guess who has been the best hitter in all of baseball over the past month? Mike Trout? No it’s a National League player. Kris Bryant? No, the player resides in the National League East. Daniel Murphy? Actually, no, it is a Mets player. Yoenis Cespedes? It isn’t. The best hitter in all of baseball over the past month is Asdrubal Cabrera.
In his career, Cabrera has been a second half player, but his level of play recently has been off the charts.
In the second half, Cabrera has been hitting .309/.359/.564 with 13 doubles, one triple, nine homers, and 23 RBI. In the month of August, he hit .405/.435/.786 with four doubles, four homers, and 11 RBI. So far in September, he has been hitting .328/.408/.627 with six doubles, one triple, four homers and eight RBI. These numbers are all the more incredible when you consider Cabrera is doing this on just one knee. A knee injury that required him to go on the disabled list at the beginning of August.
When Cabrera returned to the lineup on August 19th, the Mets were one game under .500, and they were quickly falling out of the Wild Card race. In fact, they sat five games behind the Cardinals for the second Wild Card and seven games behind the Giants for the first Wild Card. Since Cabrera’s return , the Mets have gone 20-11 which is the best record in all of baseball. The run has catapulted themselves into a three way tie with the Cardinals and Giants in the Wild Card race.
This run coincides with Cabrera’s hot hitting. Since his return from the disabled list, he has been the Mets best player. Even on one leg, he is carrying the Mets back to the postseason.