Musings
Tonight, the St. Louis Cardinals head out west to begin a pivotal four game series against the San Francisco Giants that will have far reaching implications on the National League Wild Card race. With each game played, the Mets will both gain ground on one team and lose ground to another. As the series begins, here is where the Wild Card race stands:
| Record | GB | |
| Giants | 77-68 | + 0.5 |
| Mets | 77-69 | – |
| Cardinals | 76-69 | 0.5 |
With the Mets being idle, one of two things are going to happen today: (1) they are going to be tied with the Giants for the first Wild Card; or (2) they are going to be tied with the Cardinals for the second Wild Card. As we can see from that, this four game set between the Giants and Cardinals can be both a blessing and a curse that makes you question what result you want from this four game set.
Case for the San Francisco Giants
Each generation of Mets fan has a tale of woe that has come at the hands of the St. Louis Cardinals. There was the Terry Pendleton home run off Roger McDowell in 1987, and Carlos Beltran looking at an Adam Wainwright curveball in 2006. There have been many other instances, and if history is any evidence, there will be more. It is quite understandable if Mets fans do not want to see a Cardinals uniform in a winner-take-all Wild Card Game.
There are other baseball reasons to want to face the Giants over the Cardinals. Since the All Star Break, the Giants have had the worst record in all of baseball. The Giants ace, Madison Bumgarner, has struggled in the second half going 4-5 with a 3.87 ERA and a 1.200 WHIP. The last time Bumgarner pitched against the Giants he only lasted five innings allowing six hits, four runs, four earned, and three walks while striking out six. Bumgarner isn’t the only Giants star that has struggled in the second half.
Buster Posey is amidst the worst year in his career which hast mostly been the result of him hitting .274/.352/.366 with only one home run in the second half. Posey is a major reason why the Giants have scored the third least runs in the National League after the All Star Break. You would have to like the Mets chances against this lineup when they are hopefully sending Noah Syndergaard to the mound.
Even if the Giants were to get a lead on the Mets in the Wild Card Game, it will not be a safe lead for the Giants whose bullpen has completely fallen apart. Santiago Casilla has lost his closer’s job. Joe Nathan was given a chance, but only proved why he was a 41 year old pitcher in the minors this year. Hunter Strickland crashed and burned in his first chance to take over the closer’s position. Fact is, the Giants don’t have a bullpen that can protect a lead which is really dangerous against a Mets team that has Yoenis Cespedes ready, willing, and able to hit a clutch home run late in the game.
In addition to the Giants falling apart, the Mets could very well have more trouble with the Cardinals. Yadier Molina is a Mets killer. Stephen Piscotty and Randal Grichuk give the Mets fits. While the Cardinals rotation has been a big disappointment this season, Carlos Martinez has pitched like an ace this year. In his career, he is 3-1 with a 1.75 ERA against the Mets. If the Cardinals get a lead, Seung-hwan Oh has shown himself to be a dominant closer. Given the past history, and how poorly the Mets matchup against the Cardinals, they would be better off facing the Giants.
Case for the St. Louis Cardinals
We can saw all we want about Madison Bumgarner having a tough second half, and it is true. However, under no circumstances do you want to face him in a winner-take-all game. You just have to go to the 2014 Postseason video for proof of that. In the Wild Card Game, he pitched a complete game shutout. In Game 7 of the World Series, he came out of the bullpen to pitch five shutout innings to earn the save. In his postseason career, he is 7-3 with a 2.14 ERA and a 0.883 WHIP. You don’t want to be anywhere near him. In addition to this, many people will tell you that you don’t want to face the Giants because it is an even-numbered year.
No matter how much better the Mets may matchup against the Cardinals, you always want to avoid an ace like Bumgarner in the postseason. Pitching wins, and the Cardinals have no one on the level of Bumgarner.
Case for a Split
A sweep at the hands of the other could bury one of the Wild Card contenders. The corollary to that is it will rejuvenate one of the two Wild Card contenders. As it stands, the Giants and Cardinals have seemingly had trouble getting out of their own way. If either team was able to sweep or take three out of four in the series, it will be a significant mental boost that could lead to them playing better baseball from here on out. Ideally, the Mets do not want to face a hot team in that Wild Card game.
Ideally, the Mets would also have homefield in the Wild Card Game. Unless, the Mets sweep the Twins, which may proven to be more difficult than it should be with Gabriel Ynoa potentially slated to go Sunday, the Mets will trail one of these two teams for home field in the Wild Card race. As of right now, the Mets do not have any teams over .500 remaining on their schedule. If the Mets take care of business, they should be able to earn a Wild Card spot not matter what happens in the Giants-Cardinals series.
As it stands, the Mets would probably want to face the Giants, and they would want to face them at home. However, baseball is an unpredictable game, and as we have learned far too often, you should be careful for what you wish for.
Before the game started, Terry Collins announced he was going with Rene Rivera over Travis d’Arnaud because he was going with the “hot hand.”
There are a number of valid reasons why you would want to start Rivera. He has dealt well with young pitchers over his career, and the Mets were starting Robert Gsellman. The Nationals had players like Trea Turner, and Dusty Baker likes to set his guys loose, especially against the Mets. Rivera has a better chance go neutralize the running game.
However, hot hand? Coming into yesterday’s game, Rivera was hitting .235/.316/.235 over the past two weeks. Over the same time frame, d’Arnaud has been hitting .250/.357/.250. To say, Rivera is the hot hand is simply not true. While Rivera did throw out two base runners, he didn’t get a hit yesterday leaving two runners on base.
What was bizarre about Collins’ justification was he only applied that reasoning to d’Arnaud.
Jay Bruce is now two for his last 17 with just one RBI. Yet, he stays in the lineup over Michael Conforto, who was hitting .493/.541/.821 with four doubles, six homers, and 13 RBI in 17 games in Las Vegas before his call-up. Apparently for Collins that wasn’t a “hot hand.”
With respect to the Bruce/Conforto situation, he changed the rules. After the game, Collins said he’s sticking with Bruce because, “I’d better be confident that someone can do a better job.” (New York Post).
Apparently, Collins doesn’t have confidence that Conforto or Alejandro De Aza could do any better than 2-17. Even if Conforto or De Aza were going to go 1-17 or 2-17, they are going to do so while playing vastly superior defense to Bruce.
I guess it’s any excuse to justify whatever Collins’ lineup whims are on a game-to-game basis.
I wonder what his excuse will be for his continuing to play James Loney who is hitting .253/.281/.335 in the second half while playing a poor defensive first base? Hot hand and confidence are already taken.
The Mets have 17 games remaining in their season, and at the moment, they still do not know who their second baseman is going to be on a game-to-game basis.
For most of the season, the answer was Neil Walker. Even with him struggling in the middle of the season, at a time where he couldn’t feel his toes, he was having the best season of his career. It was more than tying his career high in homers. He became a much better hitter from the right side of the plate. He was much improved defensively. He was a big part of the Mets. However, his season was over as he needed season ending surgery to address the herniated disc that prevented him from feeling his toes over the summer.
Fortunately, the Mets had a good backup option with Wilmer Flores and Kelly Johnson. Flores hit .306/.346/.542 with five homers and 19 RBI in August. He mostly did the damage against lefties, but he was also maturing as a hitter with him starting to hit against righties. Flores didn’t need to be overexposed against righties though because Johnson was having a resurgent season as a part time player with the Mets. In his 71 games with the Mets, Johnson has hit .269/.328/.473 with nine homers and 23 RBI in 73 games. The Mets very well could have rode this platoon the rest of the season. However, disaster struck again.
On Saturday, Flores slid headfirst into homeplate, and he injured his neck. He is having difficulty just taking batting practice. There is no telling when he will be able to fully warm up for a game let alone play again. This would be an opportune moment for Johnson to step up, but he has been slumping. Over the past two weeks, Johnson is hitting .188/.212/.313 with one homer and three RBI. While Johnson has been terrific all year for the Mets, it is quite possible that he has been overexposed playing semi-regularly after the Walker injury. Given Flores’ injury and Johnson’s slump, Terry Collins had to do something drastic, and that was starting T.J. Rivera last night.
Rivera had not started a game since the September 5th finale for AAA Las Vegas where he overtook Brandon Nimmo for the Pacific Coast League batting title. Rivera answered the call. He would make three terrific plays in the field. The third one in the ninth got overlooked because Daniel Murphy busted it out of the box to beat the throw, and because, as usual, James Loney didn’t stretch. However, it was at the plate where Rivera really stood out. Rivera came through in the clutch time and again delivering in both of his RBI opportunities with a two out RBI single in the first and a sacrifice fly in the fifth. When there were two outs in the top of the 10th, Rivera delivered with a home run off an 0-2 pitch from Mark Melancon, who had not allowed a home run since July 17th. With this game, Rivera made a case for himself on a Mets team that does not have an answer to second base right now.
This is unexpected as many thought this opportunity would never come. During the season, the Mets gave chances to Eric Campbell and Ty Kelly first while Rivera was thinking of new ways to try to get called up to the majors. The Mets would have to go through a rash of infield injuries for him to even be considered. He waited so long, in part, because he doesn’t fit the Mets profile. He’s an aggressive contact hitter at the plate. He’s not working the count. He’s finding his pitch, and he’s going to drive it somewhere.
So no, at no point during the first 140+ games this season did anyone, especially the Mets, think that Rivera would ever be the solution at second base. However, the Mets are looking for an answer at the position right now, and Rivera stepped in and helped the Mets win a game they lose any other time in their 54 year history. It really might just be time for Rivera.
After last night’s game, Terry Collins stated the obvious when he said Rafael Montero wouldn’t get another start. The natural follow-up Collins couldn’t quite answer yet was, “Who will replace Montero in the rotation?” Unfortunately, the Mets have few options.
Injured Starters
One of the reasons Montero is in the rotation to begin with is because Jacob deGrom and Steven Matz are injured. While there have been optimistic reports about them getting back on the mound, there are no indications either will be availsble to pitch on Saturday.
Right now, it seems deGrom is the closer of the two, but the Mets only intend to use him in the bullpen for now.
Skip the Fifth Starter’s Spot
With the Mets having an off day on Thursday, they can pitch everyone on normal rest for one turn through the rotation. If the Mets pursue this option, the team wouldn’t need a fifth starter until Wednesday, September 21st against the Braves.
This route accomplished two tasks. First, it allows the Mets to pitch their best (remaining) pitchers thereby giving them the best chance to win. Second, it gives deGrom and Matz a little more time to rejoin the rotation.
Gabriel Ynoa
If you’re judging Gabriel Ynoa by the 5.1 innings he has thrown in the majors, you wouldn’t want him or his 15.19 ERA anywhere near the mound. Worse yet, in Ynoa’s outings, he has been hit hard, and he has had trouble putting batters away.
However, it should be noted those are only 5.1 innings. It should also be noted Ynoa was pitching out of the bullpen in each of these spots, which is a very unfamiliar situation for him.
Ynoa also was on a hot streak before getting called up in September. In his final four starts of the season, he was 3-1 with a 1.33 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP. These are better numbers than what Montero had in AA when he was tabbed the fifth starter.
Logan Verrett
Mets fans have seen enough of Logan Verrett in the rotation this year. In his 12 starts, he was 1-6 with a 6.45 ERA and a 1.617 WHIP. These are terrible numbers, BUT they are better than what Montero is giving the Mets right now.
Sean Gilmartin
Unfortunately, the 2016 version of Sean Gilmartin had been nowhere near as good as the 2015 version. Whether it was due to the shoulder injury which put him on the seven day DL or not, the results aren’t there for him.
In 18 starts and one relief appearance in AAA, Gilmartin was 9-7 with a 4.86 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP. His worst month was August where he was 0-2 with a 6.43 ERA and a 1.93 WHIP in three starts.
In his 11 appearances for the Mets this year, he has a 5.40 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP. However, he has been pitching better of late. In his last six appearances, he has allowed only two runs with a 1.17 WHIP.
Bullpenning
With the publication of Brian Kenny’s new book, “Ahead of the Curve” there has been more and more discussion about the plausibility of the concept of bullpenning.
Bullpenning is when a team eschews a starting pitcher, and instead opts to go with their bullpen for all nine innings. With September call-ups, the Mets have a deeper bullpen certainly making this concept a plausible option.
With Fernando Salas, Addison Reed, and Jeurys Familia set for the last three to four innings, the Mets would only need to account for the first five to six innings of the game.
Now, given the fact that Ynoa, Verrett, and Gilmartin have not been stretched out in a while all three could give two innings each to begin the game. Hansel Robles has also shown the a ability to go multiple innings to either change the look batters see it to step in if one of the aforementioned pitchers falter.
Bullpenning could also be an avenue to start deGrom and Matz while still limiting their innings and pitch count.
As it stands at the moment, there is no obvious solution. With that in mind, the Mets are probably going to need a hybrid approach to replace Montero in the rotation.
In many ways, Turner Field was an absolute eye sore from the general design of the place to the players who wore the Braves uniforms to Kenny Rogers inability to throw one over the plate against Andruw Jones. What was ugliest of all was the Mets record there as the Mets were 67-106 at Turner Field. Keep in mind, that record was boosted by the Mets winning 11 of their last 14 there.
Just as the Mets luck would go, just as they were getting the hang of things there, the Braves decided to tear the place down. At least the Mets would close out their book at Turner Field in style.
First, it was the pitching of Seth Lugo. Again, he was economical with his pitches, and he was able to go deep into games. What is also impressive was his ability to once again navigate his way out of trouble. This is where there is a real debate between “traditionalist” and “stat-guys.” The traditionalist say he has an innate ability to get himself out of trouble while stat-guys say he is going to regress to the mean. Right now, with the Mets in fight for the Wild Card, the results are all that matter, and Lugo is getting the results.
After Freddie Freeman singled home Adonis Garcia, the Braves would then load the bases with no outs. At this point, the game was quickly turning from an easy 6-1 lead to a typical Turner Field nightmare. Lugo then induced Anthony Recker to pop out to first base. To be fair, having seen his time with the Mets, that wasn’t exactly impressive. What was impressive was him using his slider to induce a groundball from Dansby Swanson. Despite his speed, the Mets were able to turn the 6-4-3 double play to keep it at 6-1.
It was another great game from Lugo whose final line was seven innings, six hits, two runs, two earned, one walk, and five strikeouts. Overall, he is solidifying his spot on the postseason roster. Lugo got the win not just because of his pitching, but also because the Mets offense exploded.
As usual, when discussing the Mets offense exploding, you need to start with Yoenis Cespedes. In the first, his ground out scored Asdrubal Cabrera, who somehow legged out a triple on one leg, to give the Mets a 1-0 lead. In the third, he then did this:
At this point, not even Lawrence Chipper Jones could have save the Braves.
A shocking James Loney home run in the fourth would make it a 6-0 game. Credit is due to Loney here. After a disturbingly bad August, he has turned things around in September. So far this month, he is hitting .333/.391/.571 with two doubles, a homer, and three RBI. At a time when the Mets need to ride the hot hand to get the Wild Card, Loney has to be playing right now. No, I did not like saying that.
Add in another big rally in the fifth, featuring another Loney RBI base hit, and the Mets would go on to win 10-3. It was such a beating that even Lugo got into the action hitting a sacrifice fly. With that huge lead, it was beyond bizarre that Terry Collins would take his sweet time removing his injured players from the game. He didn’t remove Cabrera until the eighth despite having Gavin Cecchini and Matt Reynolds on the bench. At least, Cecchini would get a pinch hitting appearance in the game (striking out). He waited until the ninth to remove Curtis Granderson for Michael Conforto even if it would behoove the Mets to give Granderson some extra rest where they can find it. Naturally, Cespedes would play the entire game.
It was a good day for the Mets as is everyday they beat the Braves. With the Cardinals losing, the Mets found themselves back a half-game ahead of them in the Wild Card standings and tied with them in the loss column. The only real problem with the game was the fact that once again the Mets failed to wear the First Responders caps to honor the fallen.
Game Notes: Logan Verrett is pretty much done for the season. He got mop-up work in the ninth, and he couldn’t complete the task. After allowing a run, he then loaded the bases, and he needed to be bailed out by Josh Edgin. Edgin would get out of the inning without allowing another run.
If you’re being honest, 15 years later, more people are concerned about this being the first full slate of games for the NFL season, the MLB pennant races, and really just living their day-to-day lives. In many ways, this is a triumph. The attacks of 9/11 were partially an attack on our very way of life.
There is a certain beauty in becoming less and less concerned with what transpired in 9/11.
Whether we like to admit it or not, September 11th will sooner or later go the way of December 7th. History buffs will acknowledge the date. The very few who were truly affected will mourn the day. However, as a nation we will have completely moved on. Still, we’re not at that point when it comes to 9/11.
As an aside, in 1994, I had a aunt on my mother’s side who became a widow in her mid 30s as her husband died of cancer. Not knowing anyone who was a widow in her family, she reached out to my grandmother on my father’s side. During the conversation, my grandmother said, “It never stops hurting.” My grandfather had died in 1986.
For many, they have not stopped hurting in these 15 years. Today is an open wound for them. On a completely different level, as a nation, it is a time for mourning, and it’s reminder about just how important all of our rights and freedoms are.
And so, we mourn and we honor the lives lost as a result of the 9/11 attacks. It is part of the promise everyone made to one another on 9/11 to “never forget.”
Mourners and some people not affected will gather at Ground Zero, and they will read the names of those that died that day. There will be moments of silence for when each plane flew into the towers and for when each tower fell. Baseball and football stadiums will unfurl their giant American flags, and they will have ceremonies to honor the fallen.
However, the Mets won’t wear the first responder caps during the game. It’s not because no one thought to ask or thought to repeat the task. It’s because MLB doesn’t allow it. They don’t want people to see the caps to be seen on TV during the game. This isn’t MLB trying to go to normalcy. No, it’s about marketing.
It’s something Todd Zeile, who’s idea it was to wear the hats in the first place, wouldn’t allow 15 years ago, to happen. As the Mets manager and leader, Bobby Valentine got on board, and he not only allowed his team to wear the caps, he encouraged it. It went so far as Mike Piazza getting an NYPD catcher’s helmet so he too could wear a first responder’s cap on the field.
Seeing those players take the field in those caps was as important as Piazza’s home run, perhaps more so. It’s why people, and especially Mets fans, put an emotional attachment to Piazza’s jersey and Mets players wearing the first responders hats during the game.
Wearing those caps honors those who died due to the 9/11 attacks. It is a patriotic act. It is a simple gesture that means so much to so many people. It is a sign that neither the Mets nor MLB forgot.
Instead, the Mets won’t be allowed to wear them in a game. MLB will collect the hats after batting practice to make sure it won’t happen like they did to David Wright years ago. MLB puts marketing ahead of patriotism.
MLB forgot.
No one, not even Sandy Alderson himself, knew the Mets were getting this Yoenis Cespedes when they acquired him at the trade deadline last year. In Cespedes’ first three seasons in the majors, he was a .263/.316/.464 hitter who averaged 24 homers and 87 RBI. He was a guy had a lot of power, but he didn’t quite hit for enough power to compensate for his low OBP. However, with the Mets, Cespedes has been a completely different player. He might’ve just put together the best “season” any Mets player has ever had.
After last night’s game, Cespedes played in his 162nd game with the New York Mets. In those 162 games, Cespedes has hit .294/.358/.584 with 96 runs, 34 doubles, five triples, 44 homers, and 112 RBI. Other than Mike Piazza, Carlos Beltran, or possibly Darryl Strawberry, there are no Mets players that you expect to put up these types of numbers over the course of a season. In fact, no one has really put up these types of numbers in a season as a Met.
If Cespedes had put these numbers over the course of one season instead of parts of one season, he would hold the Mets single season home run record topping Beltran’s 2006 season and Todd Hundley‘s 1996 season. His .584 slugging only trails Beltran’s 2006 .594 slugging percentage (minimum 500 at bats). His 112 RBI would rank 11th all-time.
Keep in mind, this only refers to the kind of impact you can quantify. These numbers do not speak to how he has energized both the team and the fanbase. It only alludes to how each and every Cespedes at bat is a must see event; how you don’t leave the room when he steps up to the plate. It only gives a glimpse to how Cespedes has taken the Mets from a team in the postseason mix to a team that is in the discussion to win the World Series. Overall, Cespedes’ 162 game run is among the greatest, if not the greatest, we have seen in Mets history.
This speaks to how much the Mets need to have him on the team and in the lineup. Over this past “season” he has shown just how important he is. If Cespedes does indeed choose to opt out after the season, the Mets must do everything they can do to make sure he stays with the team.
Editor’s Note: this was first published on Mets Merized Online
Because this is Tim Tebow, the Mets signing him is going to elicit a number of strong reactions from all across the spectrum. However, once the smoke from that clears, what you have left is Tebow in a Mets minor league uniform. Ultimately it is a decision that makes sense.
Marketing and Gates
During the press conference, Sandy Alderson said the Tebow signing was a purely baseball driven move. Keep in mind, the Mets say a lot of things that prove to be untrue like their insistence they were not going to bring Jose Reyes back after being released by the Colorado Rockies. There was also the time that Sandy called Cespedes a “square peg” in discussing why the Mets were not interested in re-signing Cespedes. Reyes and Cespedes are both wearing Mets jerseys.
The fact of the matter is that while you can argue signing Tebow makes sense from a baseball standpoint (more on that in a minute) his ability to generate revenue cannot be dismissed.
When Tebow signed with the Eagles, he had the 15th best selling NFL jersey. That was for a guy out of the NFL for a year, and who was unlikely to make the roster. Fact is, Tebow sells. He is going to attract fans to the ballpark. What may seem like peanuts to you or I is a major revenue boost to a minor league affiliate, some of which the Mets own themselves.
Remember, minor league teams do everything they can do to get you to the ballpark with whacky promotions and on field events between innings. They do everything they can do to get you there short of giving you a turn at bat. In a world where the Mets have alienated the Buffalo Bisons and were sent to AAA purgatory in Las Vegas, the Tebow signing matters.
It could also generate revenue for the Mets. There are going to be more than a fair share of people who are online right now ordering Tebow jerseys at MLB.com or at Citi Field.
There is also the opportunity for the Mets, if they so chose, to sell Tebow merchandise to generate additional revenue. There will be a fair share of Tebow fans who may very well purchase a Kingsport Mets or Brooklyn Cyclones Tebow jersey.
Overall, while no one can quite quantify what the revenue boost will be, it is inarguable that Tebow will boost revenues for the Mets organization.
Tebow’s Presence
Generally speaking, Tebow is the type of person you would want to have around younger players.
Throughout his life, Tebow has built up a reputation as a good and devoutly religious person. He played at Florida and in the NFL, and there was never a scandal or even a cross word about him. Rather, Tebow was able to keep his nose clean (Mets pun intended), and he built a reputation as not only a good person, but also as a well spoken person. It’s why when his NFL career was seemingly over, ESPN came calling to ask him to be a commentator.
This is the type of person you want around impressionable young players who are not only trying to find their way into the majors, but also their way in life. Keep in mind that as an organization, you never falter when you add good people as they can have a positive effect on the others around them. There are too many prospects that fail not because of talent, but because of attitude and them losing their way off the field. Hopefully, someone like Tebow can help that type of player find their way either by speaking with them or by leading by example.
There’s another factor to Tebow’s presence. The guy is a winner. In college, Tebow won two National Championships and a Heisman Trophy. In 2011, Tebow took over a 1-4 football team, and he helped them win the AFC West. In his divisional round, he led the Broncos to an overtime victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers throwing an 80 yard TD pass to Demaryius Thomas. Ultimately, that was it for Tebow’s NFL career as he didn’t have the talent to stay in the league. However, despite his lack of talent, he was a winner everywhere he went. This is an asset every team and organization wants around.
He’s Giving Exposure to Other Teammates
One of the biggest fallacies surround Tebow’s signing is that he is going to cost another player a shot at playing in the majors. This simply isn’t true. Minor league rosters are full of organizational depth players that are signed so a minor league team can field a full roster. Also, keep in mind no one had this complaint when a 37 year old Mike Hessman was chasing the minor league home run record.
So no, Tebow is not going to cost the Mike Hessmans of the world their shot at making it to the major leagues. Quite to the contrary, Tebow may actually help other players get discovered.
As discussed above, Tebow is a draw meaning more people are going to go see his games. Ultimately, baseball people will want to go see Tebow, but they’re not going to watch just Tebow. They’re going to keep their eyes on everyone. When that happens, other players get additional exposure, and another organization could call the Mets and look to make a minor minor league deal to get the lesser known guy into their organization.
Tebow May Actually Be a Baseball Player
Fact is, no one yet knows what the Mets have in Tebow the baseball player. It is no different than when the Mets signed Wilmer Flores as a teenager out of Venezuela. You see a guy with some raw baseball tools, and you hope they make it to the major leagues.
Admittedly, Tebow is much older than Flores was. However, at 29 years old, Tebow is still young enough that he could go through the minors and eventually make the major leagues. After his showcase, he did show speed and some raw power. Given the right environment, he could develop into a fourth or a fifth outfielder on a major league team. If he doesn’t? No big deal. You eventually cut ties with him like you would any other prospect that didn’t pan out.
The Cespedes Factor
Right now, Yoenis Cespedes is the most important position player on the New York Mets. After this season, he is most likely going to opt out of his deal and become the top free agent available. When Cespedes does opt out, the Mets have to do everything they can do to keep him in Flushing for the long term.
Part of doing that is having a good relationship with Cespedes’ agents. No, it won’t lead to Cespedes turning down more money to play elsewhere, but it could give the Mets some advantages. For example, the Mets could be given the opportunity to match or beat any offer before Cespedes signs a deal. A good relationship with Cespedes’ agents could lead to the Mets striking quickly after the season and wrapping up Cespedes before he has an opportunity to hit the free agent market much in the way the Mets struck quickly with Mike Piazza after the 1998 season ended.
Overall, it is never a bad idea to have a good relationship with the agent who represents your most important pending free agent. Also, for what it’s worth Cespedes’ and Tebow’s agents also represent Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard. Eventually, the Mets are going to want to discuss an extension with each of those players. Again, it’ll help if the Mets and the agency are on good terms.
So yes, there are a number of reasons why people may not want Tebow. However, when taking everything into consideration, this was a good move for the Mets organization.
After sweeping the Reds, and having won 14 of their last 18 games, the Mets have rallied from two games under .500 to get themselves back into the thick of the Wild Card race. In fact, after Wednesday’s games, the Mets are in a virtual tie with the St. Louis Cardinals. Better yet, they’re just a half game back of the Giants for the second Wild Card.
As we hit the homestretch with the Mets having 22 games remaining on the schedule, here is where everyone stands:
San Francisco Giants 74-65
The Giants are in a free-fall. They went from having the most wins in the National League before the All Star Break to having the third worst record in the National League after the break.
The Giants are 4-6 in your last 10, and they are 6-11 over their last 17 games. Even with all that, the Giants have a half-game lead over the Cardinals and Mets for the top Wild Card spot and are five games back of the Dodgers in the NL West.
The main reason why the Giants are struggling right now is their pitching. Madison Bumgarner has gone from dominant in the first half to human in the second half with a 4-4 record and a 3.66 ERA. Johnny Cueto has similarly struggled going 1-4 with a 3.90 ERA in the second half. Keep in mind, these were the only starters the Giants can truly rely upon with Matt Cain never fully came back after his injury problems, Jake Peavy missing most of the year with injuries, and Jeff Samardzjia not living up to his free agent contract.
Worse yet, when the Giants get a late lead, it isn’t safe. Santiago Castilla had blown three saves in the second half. Castilla is struggling to the point that Bruce Bochy removed him from the game against the Rockies rather than letting him make matters worse.
The Giants currently have 23 games remaining against the following opponents:
- 3 at Diamondbacks (58-81)
- 3 vs. Padres (57-82)
- 4 vs. Cardinals (73-65)
- 3 at Dodgers (79-60)
- 4 at Padres (57-82)
- 3 vs. Rockies (67-72)
- 3 vs. Dodgers (79-60)
The Giants remaining opponents combined winning percentage is .481. The biggest benefit to their schedule are the 10 games remaining against the Diamondbacks and Padres as the Giants have a combined 19-9 record against them.
Fangraphs gives the Giants a 66.6% chance of getting a Wild Card spot, and Baseball Prospectus gives them a 70.7% chance of making the postseaon.
St. Louis Cardinals 73-65
Injuries are starting to catch up to the Cardinals who are 5-5 over their last 10. Since Aledmys Diaz went on the disabled list with a broken thumb, the Cardinals are effectively a .500 team going 17-16.
Other notable injuries are Matt Holliday, Michael Wacha, and Trevor Rosenthal. While the Cardinals are keeping their heads above water, they may need to play better than .500 ball to return to the postseason.
The Cardinals currently have 24 games remaining against the following opponents:
- 4 vs. Brewers (62-77)
- 3 vs. Cubs (89-50)
- 4 at Giants (74-65)
- 3 at Rockies (67-72)
- 3 at Cubs (89-50)
- 4 vs. Reds (57-81)
- 3 vs. Pirates (68-69)
The combined winning percentage of the remaining teams is .502. Of the Cardinals remaining 24 games, 14 of them are at home where they are 30-37 on the season.
Fangraphs gives the Cardinals a 57.4% chance of getting a Wild Card spot, and Baseball Prospectus gives them a 58.6% chance of making the postseason.
Washington Nationals 81-57
If seven with 17 remaining isn’t an insurmountable hurdle then 8.5 with 22 remaining shouldn’t be either. That goes double with Stephen Strasburg leaving his first start from the disabled list with an apparent injury. With that said, the Nationals are hot winning seven of their last 10, and with their remaining schedule, it’s going to take a miracle for the Mets to win the division. Here are the Nationals remaining games:
- 4 vs. Phillies (62-77)
- 3 vs. Mets (74-66)
- 3 at Braves (54-86)
- 3 at Marlins (69-71)
- 3 at Pirates (68-69)
- 4 vs Diamondbacks (58-81)
- 3 vs. Marlins (69-71)
The Nationals remaining opponents have a combined winning percentage of .461. Of the Nationals remaining 24 games, they have 16 against National League East teams, and so far, the Nationals are 42-18 against the National League East. Fangraphs gives the Nationals a 99.7% chance of winning the division, and Baseball Prospectus gives them a 100% chance of making the postseason.
New York Mets 74-66
When the dust settled last night, the Mets found themselves in a virutal tie with the Cardinals for the second Wild Card spot, and a half game behind the Giants for the first Wild Card spot. It should be noted the Mets trail both the Cardinals and the Giants by one game in the loss column.
The Mets are at this point with question marks of their own. Yoenis Cespedes and Asdrubal Cabrera are each effectively playing on one leg. Neil Walker is out for the season joining David Wright, Lucas Duda, and Matt Harvey. With Rafael Montero‘s struggles, Gabriel Ynoa having difficulty getting major league hitters out, and Logan Verrett not living up to the challenge, the Mets have no real fifth starter at the moment. While Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman have stepped up, they are not on par with Jacob deGrom and Steven Matz, neither of whom is definitive to return this season. With all that said, the Mets have hope because they have the weakest schedule out of any of the aforementioned Wild Card competitors:
- 3 at Braves (54-86)
- 3 at Nationals (82-57)
- 3 vs. Twins (52-88)
- 3 vs. Braves (54-86)
- 4 vs. Phillies (62-77)
- 3 at Marlins (69-71)
- 3 at Phillies (62-77)
The combined winning percentage of the Mets remaining opponents is .457, which is the lowest opponent’s winning percentage of any of the aforementioned teams the Mets are still chasing.
Fangraphs give the Mets a 64.5% chance of grabbing a Wild Card spot, and Baseball Prospectus gives them a 67.2% chance of making the postseason.
Overall, the Mets schedule is filled with a lot of winnable games. If the Mets take care of business, they should be returning to the postseason for the second straight season.